Ted Schwerzler

Very, very good points. They are afforded quite a bit of rope in decisions because of him, yes.

When the Minnesota Twins set out to supplement their roster this offseason a couple of different areas presented themselves as needs. Starting pitching will always remain one as you can never have enough, but the organization is in rarefied air. Following his signing with the Houston Astros it’s more than fair to suggest the Twins would’ve been well-served to wait out Jake Odorizzi. He clearly over-anticipated his market however and found a landing spot only after Framber Valdez dealt a blow to Dusty Baker’s starting rotation. Instead, Minnesota went with a one-year deal to Matt Shoemaker that set the club back just $2 million. At the time, and even now, that has the makings of a pretty shrewd move. If you’re at all familiar with Shoemaker’s track record you know this, he hasn’t been available often. Across seven full Major League seasons he’s made 15 or more starts just three times, while failing to reach double digits in each of the past three. Injury issues have plagued him, but it’s worth noting that the injuries haven’t been arm related. In hoping for a regression to the fluky nature that has kept him sidelined, you have to take note of the production that has been there. Back in 2016 was the last time Shoemaker threw more than 100 innings. Across 27 starts that year he posted a 3.88 ERA backed by a 3.51 FIP and an 8.0 K/9. It was the third year in a row in which he’d tallied both 20 starts and 130+ innings pitched. In that time, he owned a 3.80 ERA with a 3.77 FIP and an 8.0 K/9. When available the veteran has been incredibly consistent. He’s good for a high-threes ERA while striking out right around eight per nine and being very stingy on the free passes. Even as a third starter that would play, and he’ll pitch out of the Minnesota five-hole. What’s maybe most important for the Twins in all of this isn’t even what Shoemaker himself brings to the table, but rather what he affords the club in regards to those around him. Randy Dobnak has started a Postseason game, Lewis Thorpe is a former top prospect that has been the darling of Spring Training, and the duo of Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are close. That doesn’t even touch on Devin Smeltzer, who has Major League experience as well. None of them will factor into the rotation on Opening Day. In 2020 Rocco Baldelli had 11 different players starts a game (two of which were openers). For the Bomba Squad a year prior, 10 different players made starts (one of which was an opener). Depth is something every team must have in the rotation, and that will probably ring truer than ever coming off such a shortened schedule a season ago. Because of what this front office has done in the development department, the Twins could be more prepared now than they ever have been before. A year ago, the Twins posted the 5th best fWAR among starters in baseball. That improved upon a 7th place finish in 2019. Derek Falvey had long been considered a pitching guru for his time in Cleveland, and he’s quickly carried that acumen to a new organization. I’m not sure who will contribute what, and which starters will be there at the end, but you can bet the stable is right where the organization feels comfortable when it comes to pieces at their disposal. Maybe Matt Shoemaker only gives his new club something like ten starts in 2021. That’s still more than Rich Hill or Homer Bailey a season ago, and the flexibility he provides the Twins in terms of additional depth is a bonus that can’t be overstated. Let him be healthy because he’s been good when available. When the time comes to make a change, options will be plentiful. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Last season was a difficult one to check in with regarding over under lines put out by major sportsbooks. With the truncated season having goofy projected stat lines, they never made a ton of sense to dive into. Normalcy has begun to return, and there’s some money to be made based on Minnesota performances in the year ahead. I tend to shy away from RBI focused lines, and the Twins have a handful of new subjects being considered big enough names worthy of individual focus for the year ahead. There wasn’t a ton of lines I loved, but there’s some long shots that also seem incredibly juicy. Let’s get into it. Jose Berrios OVER 190.5 strikeouts Each of the past two full seasons, the only he’s pitched in the majors, Berrios has tallied 202 and 195 strikeouts. Last season in 63.0 IP the Twins hurler racked up 68 strikeouts, which was nearly a full strikeout improvement to his K/9 from 2019. I don’t know that we see the Puerto Rican all of a sudden make a run at a Cy Young award, but I think sustainability is something that will emerge in 2021. Minnesota reworked his offseason routine with hopes of avoiding the late summer swoon, and Berrios has made velocity additions under pitching coach Wes Johnson. Let me have the over on what would otherwise be his lowest full-season strikeout total. Josh Donaldson OVER 27.5 home runs In his first year with the Twins Josh Donaldson played in under 50% of the team’s games. Nagging calf issues aren’t new for the former MVP, and if nothing else, that should represent some hope in that he’ll know how to rehab effectively. With Atlanta in 2019, Donaldson crushed 37 dingers, and even in a 113-game campaign during 2017 he posted 33 longballs. In fact, the last time Donaldson didn’t hit 27 homers in a year where substantial time was missed happened way back in 2013. This will be the season that the Bringer of Rain shows why he was handed a $100 million contract, and he’ll be part of an offense that provides plenty of thump. Miguel Sano OVER 35.5 home runs Hitting 35 homers would represent a career high for the Twins first basemen. That might make this line seem like a stretch, however, he clubbed 34 of them in just 105 games during the 2019 season. 2021 is the first season since he’s been refocused within the game to not have a spring setback. There’s no achilles injury or bout with Covid and the Dominican appears to be all systems go. Miguel Sano struck out a ridiculous 43.9% of the time a season ago yet still hit homers at a pace of 39 per 162 games. I’d bet heavily on him reducing the whiff rate to something more in line with career norms, and he’s still going to give away a lot of baseballs to fans back in ballparks. Minnesota Twins OVER 89.5 wins This line seems like free money and beyond odd to me. Not only are the Twins not considered favorites to three-peat in the AL Central, but it would also represent a division with a second-place team not reaching the 90-win plateau. Back in 2019 that happened in just two divisions, both in the National League, and with no real secondary competition. Minnesota should still be expected atop Chicago until the White Sox show otherwise, but even if that isn’t the case, dropping below 90 wins seems like a really big stretch. Lead MLB in HRs Miguel Sano (25/1) Nelson Cruz (40/1) The former seems like a fairly strong bet here. Any player that should surpass 40 home runs has to be in the conversation for this accolade, and at 25/1 there’s no reason not to throw something on Sano. I think he’s more likely to take the title than teammate Nelson Cruz, but the 40/1 odds for the designated hitter are too juicy to pass up as well. There’s not enough reason to indicate the favorites are more likely to race out to an easy victory, so taking a flier makes sense. AL Cy Young Winner Kenta Maeda (22/1) Something seems odd here too as Maeda is the reigning runner-up for this award and yet he’s got longer odds than teammate Jose Berrios (16/1). Maeda has been flawless through nine innings this spring, but that’s not really the story here. The former Dodgers starter has always been overshadowed in Los Angeles and he flashed how good he really is a season ago. That wasn’t a short season fluke, and a repeat performance wouldn’t be shocking, while going the distance to establish him as an ace. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Twins skipper Rocco Baldelli announced today that Kenta Maeda would take the ball Opening Day for Minnesota in Milwaukee.Final: Twins 5 Red Sox 5 Box Score | Savant Twins Takeaways Standout Pitcher: Kenta Maeda (4.0 IP 0 H 0 R 0 ER 1 BB 5 K) Standout Hitter: Brent Rooker (3-3, 2B) Fastest Pitch: Shaun Anderson (96.1 MPH) Max Exit Velocity: Byron Buxton (111.4 MPH) Maeda Continues to Dazzle Drawing the start in what would wind up being his longest outing of the spring, Kenta Maeda continued to be flawless for the Twins. He worked four scoreless allowing just a single runner on a walk while striking out five. Through nine innings this spring he’s given up just one hit and one walk while punching out 12. Following the game, Minnesota made it official announcing the American League Cy Young runner-up as the Opening Day starter. That also lines Jose Berrios up for the April 8 home opener. Buxton Returns with a Bang After missing time earlier this week dealing with a dental procedure following a steak dinner, Minnesota’s star center fielder returned to the lineup. In his first at bat of the game, facing Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi, Byron annihilated a ball over 111 mph to left field for a dinger. It was his only hit of the day, but he certainly made it count. Highlights Include Lots of Strength At the plate Minnesota squared up Boston’s hard throwing hurler with plenty of solid contact. Miguel Sano crushed a double 111.0 mph off of Rafael Devers’ glove at third, Brent Rooker ripped a pitch 109.6 mph for a double to left field, and Mitch Garver squared up a 99 mph fastball with the same exit velocity. In the field, prospect Gilberto Celestino stole the show using his legs to make robbing a Red Sox home run look entirely too easy. Around the Game Don’t tell Luis Guillorme that Spring Training at bats don’t count. The Mets batter forced a 22-pitch at bat against St. Louis Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks. Former Phillies and Royals third basemen Maikel Franco is finalizing a deal with the Baltimore Orioles according to Jon Heyman. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Over the past few off-season’s, it’s been a worthy question as to whether Minnesota Twins pitcher Jose Berrios would take the next step towards becoming an ace. What about the work we’ll see for the first time?Once again there’s plenty of steam regarding the prospects of a Berrios breakout in 2021. He’s currently got the 5th best odds (16/1) to win the AL Cy Young per Bovada; notably, ahead of teammate Kenta Maeda (22/1). Without considering awards or a defining tag of a result, there’s more to unpack with Berrios in the year ahead. The last full season we watched Jose Berrios pitch was 2019. He experienced his traditional late-summer swoon turning a 2.80 ERA through July into a 3.68 ERA when the dust settled. Across his final 10 starts he owned a 5.83 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to post an .835 OPS against him. Headed into that offseason the Twins tweaked Berrios’ typical otherworldly training regimen. There were no videos of tires being flipped or cars being pulled. Strength was still the goal but sustaining ability over the course of a full 162-game slate was the intention. Then there’s velocity. After averaging just over 94 mph on his fastball in his debut season, Berrios had seen a drop to 93.5 mph by 2019. There were outings in which it seemed difficult to register consistent numbers north of 92 mph, and the separation between his fastball and off-speed simply wasn’t there. Wes Johnson has long been suggested as a velo-guru and stealing some ticks going into 2020 was a goal. Across just 63 innings, the results were promising, registering a career high 94.9 mph average. So, where does that leave us for 2021? Regarding the former, we’ll see what level of endurance Berrios has built up for the rigors of a full season. 2020’s start and stop nature, along with the truncated schedule, doesn’t provide much in terms of projectability. Jose was much better as the year went on however, turning a 5.92 ERA through five starts into a 4.00 ERA when the dust settled. This was done with dominance to the tune of a 2.79 ERA and .598 OPS against across his final seven outings. With a more traditional Spring Training and offseason program, the hope would be that a slide in August and September becomes nonexistent. In three full seasons the Puerto Rican owns a 3.80 ERA despite never holding serve from start to finish. How about the heat? That already trended upwards in 2020 but making much of what should have been a fresh arm all the way through is tough. What we can deduce is that Wes had him on the right path. If there’s any more evidence of that, it came in his latest Spring Training outing. Against the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday he touched 97 mph more than once, and the breaking pitches looked as sharp as ever. In five innings this spring (across two games) he’s allowed two hits while punching out seven and walking just one. I don’t really care if Jose Berrios earns the definition of ace. I don’t care if he or Kenta Maeda starts on Opening Day. What I would like to see is the Twins unlock a pitcher that can stay at 95 mph or above, and hold serve throughout the full course of a regular season. If those two things happen for La MaKina, he’ll wind up being nothing short of lights out in the year ahead. Dream on it Twins fans, that’s the type of arm World Series are won on. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

If you’ve followed my work here or on Twitter over the past couple of years, it’s become evident I’ve dove full steam into card collecting. While I’ve dabbled in basketball (hi, Anthony Edwards), and will grab my first hockey card soon (Kirill Kaprizov is in Upper Deck Series 2 out later this month), baseball is obviously the sweet spot. I’ve gone through a bit of a collecting lull in wanting to refocus my efforts and make sure I’m enjoying my collection for what it is. I’ve kicked around similar versions of this idea over the past couple of seasons and am now going to write it into existence. With the way cards have exploded, I want to notate a few players I think are worthy “investments” for the 2021 season. Here’s the deal, this isn’t a get rich quick type of situation, and I also shy away from the notion of prospecting. Bowman cards are often exorbitantly priced only to come cascading back to earth when prospects don’t pan out. No, my goal here is to identify a few undervalued players that will turn a nice ROI in the next 12 months. Before coming forward with the names let’s outline a couple of ground rules. No single card can cost more than $20. With that intention, it rules out grading any raw cards. Even at the lowest value submission level a card would be pushed beyond that threshold. The goal would be for nothing less than a 50% growth rate by March 2021. Alright, let’s get into it. 2018 Topps Jack Flaherty #93 PSA 9 - $12 Coming off his worst season in the majors, Flaherty is maybe an odd pitcher to target as the only non-hitter of this group. His 4.11 FIP suggests the 4.91 ERA maybe wasn’t that unfair, but I’m bullish on his 25-year-old season being his best yet. Coming off a 2019 that saw him finish 4th in the NL Cy Young voting, the 2020 3.42 xFIP tells a better story. He was bit harder by the longball than in any other season, and the strikeouts are still elite. I think the division is going to be awful, and the addition of Nolan Arenado raises the water level for St. Louis across the board. Another top five Cy Young finish wouldn’t shock me at all, and I think he’s a dark horse to win it. Pitchers aren’t great investments, but this isn’t a long hold and at $12 I want to capitalize on what I expect to be a good year. 2018 Topps Update Shohei Ohtani #US1 PSA 9 - $19.99 There’s clearly a theme here in that the value of 2018 Topps baseball product remains untapped. Yes, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Juan Soto are the headliners right now, but there’s a reason the boxes are at astronomical prices. Shohei Ohtani won the 2018 Rookie of the Year and has since been seen as slipping. While there’s no denying his 2020 was poor, 2019 featured an .848 OPS and 18 longballs in a season where he was kept off the mound. He’s back to pitching, looked great in his Spring Training debut, and remains the only player in history capable of both throwing 100 mph on the bump and launching balls over the fence with 100 mph exit velocities. If he’s anything close to what he was in 2018 or 19 at the plate, and even a middle of the rotation starter, his cards should rebound nicely. 2018 Topps Rafael Devers #18 PSA 9 - $19.99 Another 2018 entrant includes one of the young stars in Boston. I don’t expect the Red Sox to be any good in 2021, but Devers still seems entirely too slept on. He’s a year removed from a .916 OPS as a 22-year-old and plays in a premium market. Mookie Betts is gone, Andrew Benintendi is gone, and Jackie Bradley Jr. is gone. Devers gives the BoSox a face-of-the-franchise type hope and a rebound at age-24 should surge his cards upwards. ZiPS projects him for 3.2 fWAR and 32 dingers this season. He whiffed well above career norms in 2020 and getting back to a stronger level of plate discipline should aid his offensive game nicely. 2015 Topps Kris Bryant #616 SGC 9.5 - $15 There’s a lot of belief here, but there’s also an opportunity that I saw an undervalued offering given the slab it resides in. PSA 9’s of this same card goes for between $25-30 right now and despite SGC being more well known for vintage offerings, the 9.5 is a superior grade. Bryant is in his final year with the Cubs, one Chicago angled for by manipulating his service time all those years ago. He recently turned 29 and is coming off an injury plagued 2020. Throw out what took place during the pandemic and the Vegas native owns a career .901 OPS and posted a .903 mark in 2019. He should surpass the career 200 home run mark (needing 28) this season, and he’s playing for his first big payday. Health, most notably the back, remains a key question for him but otherwise the talent remains through the roof. Honorable Mentions: I was intentional in targeting quick flips with these players, but I think the shortstop class for 2022 is an equally appealing proposition. Unfortunately, graded copies of rookie offerings for Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez already fall beyond the rules for this exercise. I do also like Trea Turner quite a bit, and Gleyber Torres may be my favorite long term hold right now. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Minnesota Twins have played more than a handful of Spring Training games and Opening Day is less than a month away. Who will make up the 26-man roster in Milwaukee on April 1? There’s been a couple of additions since roster projection 1.0 exactly one month ago, and spring performances may wind up influencing some of the roster decisions as well. It appears there will be fans in the stands no matter where you turn on Opening Day, so who will fans of the reigning AL Central division champions be seeing? Here’s the first revision: Starting Pitchers (5): Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker Randy Dobnak gets bumped from the group as the addition of Shoemaker on a one-year deal worth $2 million all but cements his place as the final starter. The former Angels pitcher has been good when healthy, he’s just rarely remained that for significant stretches of time. Minnesota has solid starting depth, even if the ceiling is lowered behind Pineda. This should be a solid group. Relief Pitchers (8): Taylor Rogers, Alex Colome, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Jorge Alcala, Cody Stashak, Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe I’m really uncertain what to do with this group. Only six spots seem like certainties, and despite Caleb Thielbar needing to be a seventh, he may miss the start of the season with an injury. Minnesota also seems likely to carry 14 pitchers given the workload differential in adding 102 games this season. That said, I have no idea how they get there. Shaun Anderson is on the 40-man roster already. Thorpe and Dobnak have looked good this spring, but both should remain stretched out to start. Ian Hamilton, Ian Gibault, and Brandon Waddell would all need a spot on the 40-man roster if they were to be included. Catchers (2): Mitch Garver, Ryan Jeffers Removing Willians Astudillo here solely from the idea that the options elsewhere seem better suited for the roster. He’s not a true catcher and the top two should be able to split duties evenly. Infielders (5): Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Andrelton Simmons, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez No changes here and the only thing that could make some sense would be a true shortstop to spell Andrelton Simmons. Jorge Polanco will likely be asked to play that role at times rather than including someone like J.T. Riddle, who would need a 40-man spot should he make the club. Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Jake Cave, Brent Rooker Talk about a group brimming with options. Kirilloff should be the Opening Day left fielder. The team has suggested Arraez isn’t being groomed to play the outfield, and there’s no Triple-A action for a month. Jake Cave is the holdover fourth outfielder, but he’s a bit redundant as another left-handed bat. Keon Broxton is a non-roster guy that can truly play centerfield and he’s looked very good in the early going. Kyle Garlick is a right-handed hitter with a 40-man spot who’s also looked good, but he’s probably destined more for the corners. If you’re adding another bat, it probably needs to be Brent Rooker. He’s not a centerfielder, but he too is right-handed and looked the part before his injury in 2020. Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz No change here For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Twins ended a Spring Training losing streak on the back of Josh Donaldson’s homer in his 2021 Grapefruit League debut. Cleveland also continues to break rules.Final: Twins 8, Rays 4 (8 innings) Box Score | Savant Twins Takeaways Standout Pitcher(s): Lewis Thorpe (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K), Matt Canterino (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K) Standout Hitter: Josh Donaldson (1-2, HR, 3 RBI) Plenty of Rays Against Tampa Looking to snap a four-game losing streak the Minnesota Twins did that and more doubling up the Rays today. It was the longest game of the spring as the clubs agreed to an eight-inning contest. Rocco Baldelli’s club put up an eight spot and the bright spots were numerous. Josh Donaldson made his debut and ripped two balls with exit velocities over 100 mph, including a three-run dinger that left at 110 mph. Keon Broxton continued his torrid effort towards a roster spot with a 419 foot three-run homer of his own. Waiver claim Kyle Garlick posted two more hits as well. On the mound, starter Lewis Thorpe looked unreal striking out the side while using fastballs up to 93 mph. Alex Colome bounced back with a working cutter and two strikeouts today, and prospect Matt Canterino touched 98 mph while striking out two in a hitless inning of his own. Video Vision of Twins Notables Josh Donaldson murdered a baseball into wind that was otherwise knocking down fly balls today. Then Keon Broxton literally left the stadium. Earlier Andrelton Simmons got a workout in. He told media the only thing he wasn’t able to accomplish while hung up in Curacao was seeing live pitching, which he hopes to overcome this week. Cleveland Continues Ignoring Covid Protocols Last season it was Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac, this season it’s Franmil Reyes and Jose Ramirez. The Chicago Cubs’ Pedro Strop was tagged in a post on social media that was authored by Reyes. The trio broke Covid protocols and are now being withheld from their respective Spring Training camps. Nationals Reliever Sent Packing Washington released veteran Jeremy Jeffress today for what has been defined as “personnel reasons.” It’s an odd description as that would seemingly define every transaction. Jeffress did attack former agent (they parted ways in 2019) Joshua Kusnick via Twitter in regards to the situation. Nothing concrete has been made public by either side. Astros Pitching Depth Tested A day after signing former Twins starter Jake Odorizzi, the Houston Astros were dealt another starting blow. Forrest Whitley was recommended Tommy John surgery for his UCL injury. This comes on the heels of Framber Valdez being recommended surgery on a finger that would keep him out for the duration of the season. Minnesota’s former veteran starter is a nice add for Dusty Baker’s club, but it’s quickly turned more into necessity than opportunity. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Over the years Minnesota Twins fans have salivated over the idea of generational prospects. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano gave way to Royce Lewis and the current crop. Alex Kirilloff could end up being the one, though.The former first-round pick falls more in line with Sano when it comes to athletic tools. He’s more hitter than he is well rounded athlete, but that doesn’t mean you should bank on him becoming a full-time designated hitter any time soon. While Sano is a hulking power guy, both Buxton and Lewis ooze tools that create plenty of fallback positives. For Kirilloff, the bat is expected to play so well that even a corner outfield or first base role doesn’t sap much of his value. Here’s the deal, projecting early success for prospects is a very difficult practice. Sure, Wander Franco and Jarred Kelenic both have gone yard in Spring Training already, but their immediate success in the big leagues remains a complete question mark. Both of those guys are seen as better overall players than the Twins left-handed hitter, but it remains a dice roll as to how their careers start. Let’s imagine for a second that Kirilloff winds up being a dude, more than just a guy. Instead of taking a typical progression to get there, say he achieves that status in year one. Minnesota hasn’t had a Rookie of the Year winner since Marty Cordova in 1995. Cordova went on to produce 6.5 fWAR (3.6 of which came in his first season) and was largely a forgettable talent. If you can bring yourself to dream on the heights Kirilloff has the ability to produce at, something much more special is in play here. Twins Daily’s own Seth Stohs has suggested he’d be far from shocked to see the Pennsylvania native win a batting title or two. Sure, that might be seen through rose-colored glasses, but Seth has always been as plugged into the Minnesota farm system as anyone in baseball. It’s not as though the talent isn’t recognized elsewhere either given Kirilloff’s current status as a consensus top-100 prospect, and in the top 30 on two different lists. Let’s venture over to FanGraphs for a minute. Dan Szymborski, creator of ZiPS, recently published his 2021 breakout candidate list. The first name on it, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., seems like a good bet to rebound. He tore up the minors, is in better shape, and now has some new understanding at the highest level on his side. We’re here for the second name on the list: Alex Kirilloff. Noting how the projection systems work, and especially in the context of injury, Szymborski defines his stance saying, “He’s too low on the ZiPS Top 100, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he hit 30 homers in 2021. ZiPS only says 3.6% for that, but I think it’s closer to 25%.” The 90th percentile outcome for Kirilloff is a 3.1 fWAR player. He’s not going to add much defensively, but a rookie season with a .301/.352/.543 slash line including 25 dingers would be bananas. Assuming the Twins start him in left field on Opening Day as they should, reaching 30 would give fans a form of immediate gratification they’ve been missing from top prospects. Download attachment: Capture.PNG So, what if Kirilloff winds up being a dude, but just a guy for the 2021 season? Even his 10th percentile outcome is hardly worth throwing away. A .279/.317/.403 slash line with 12 dingers isn’t going to earn him much stability going forward, but it would be a fine debut. ZiPS currently has him pegged for 1.3 fWAR, or a 40th percentile outcome, including a .286/.328/.445 slash line with 16 longballs. That checks in higher than what the since departed Eddie Rosario did in 2019 and his 32-homer output was enough to garner MVP votes. When the dust settles on Kirilloff in 2021 I think it will be easy to tell why he ranks how he does on prospect lists. Players like Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are capable of winning MVP awards. At their best, they have offensive prowess and defensive acumen. Guys like Miguel Sano and the highlighted Kirilloff are going to produce with the stick, and although it’s singularly focused, the height of production is an incredibly valuable asset. Alex may never win an MVP, but he certainly could be in the discussion for a batting title or two, and betting on him for a Rookie of the Year nod while outpacing even the highest projections is hardly far-fetched. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

In 2021 the Minnesota Twins are going to have a new starting shortstop. Despite being delayed to camp, Andrelton Simmons will assume that role shortly. What happens behind him remains a question, but the Riddle could actually be the solution. Alright, enough with the puns, sorry about that. Andrelton Simmons is as clear of a defensive upgrade as it gets. Even if Minnesota employed someone other than a below-average Jorge Polanco as short in recent seasons, Simba as he’s known, has won a Platinum Glove. Despite being in on Marcus Semien (who’s also a defensive upgrade), it’s clear prioritizing defense was a goal. Now with Simmons, the Twins have arguably the best defensive left-side of the infield in all of baseball. The man needs days off, though right. Simmons opted out of 2020 after an injury, and he played in just 103 games the year before that. Even when he’s played in 145-plus, there’s still days he’ll need a break. A year ago, that may have fallen on the shoulders of Ehire Adrianza (as Marwin Gonzalez is not a good defender at short). In 2021 the options are less clear. Do you cloudy the transition for Polanco by moving him there intermittently? What about new utility man Luis Arraez filling in out of position? Right now, that’s where the options cease when it comes to clear Opening Day roster candidates. Enter J.T. Riddle. The former Marlin and Pirate is not much to speak of at the plate. He owns a career OPS of just .616 and the minor league track record doesn’t suggest a breakout at age-29. What he can do however, is field. In just under 700 innings at short for the Marlins a few year ago, he was worth 12 DRS. That defensive ability is something only Simmons possesses among the Twins logical candidates. Welcome to your inside track sir. Whether you assume Alex Kirilloff is the Twins Opening Day left fielder or not (he should be, and his outlook just got better), at worst that makes Arraez a utility player. Adding another outfielder to the bench could be an avenue, and a third catcher has been a preference in recent seasons. Jake Cave could still fit depending on the pitching configuration, and regardless of the flexibility, Willians Astudillo is redundant. Penciling in Riddle with a Major League roster spot is hardly ideal. There are only 26 openings and there’s better talents. His effectiveness as a true shortstop could present him an edge though. The front office brought in Andrew Romine as a camp option for short with Simmons lagging behind. Maybe Riddle is seen with more of a future than just a ticket to Triple-A St. Paul. Nick Gordon isn’t viewed as a shortstop anymore, and even a healthy Royce Lewis wasn’t going to back up a big-league position. Even the best teams have guys that play a small but significant role, maybe this one is for J.T. I don’t know that I love it, and I’m obviously not certain it will happen, but I think there’s a pathway to get there and one that makes logical sense. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Just shy of a year ago I was at Pott’s Sports Café in Fort Myers, Florida. March 12, 2020 to be exact. I’ll never forget that day as the night before basketball shut down with the announcement of Rudy Gobert testing positive for Covid-19. Having just left the freshly roped off back fields at Hammond Stadium, waiting to catch a flight, news hit that Major League Baseball was going on hold. Fast forward to where we are today and hope springing eternal couldn’t seem more appropriate. Each year around this time fans feel the rejuvenation of the possibility that their team could win a World Series come October. Spring Training may bring meaningless ballgames, but the action being back is more than necessary for even the most casual of baseball fans. Last year we went through a 60-game blitz that culminated with a World Series inviting fans into the ballpark. During the regular season and most of the Postseason, the only things inhabiting ballparks across the country were cardboard cutouts. Fake crowd noise was pumped into stadiums, and announcers worked games while sitting at empty fields and staring at television monitors. As Spring Training is now underway in 2021 fans have been invited back into ballparks. Sellouts immediately commenced, and whatever percentage of capacity was allowed to take place has been maxed out. We still have social distancing and mask wearing, that likely won’t change for a while. This season though, there are bodies back in the seats taking in America’s pastime. There schedule is set up for a complete 162-game run, and the nuance of baseball should again be on full display. Minnesota enters the 2021 season as one of the best teams in baseball, and they’ll have a renewed rivalry in the division thanks to the youth emergence from the Chicago White Sox. A year ago, it was just a joy to have baseball save what was otherwise a very gloomy summer. This year, the sport can be a leader in a return to normalcy and we’ll get closer to that reality as the calendar draws on. Get out to a ballpark and go Twins! For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

We’re quickly coming to the end of these positional rundowns, but it’s exciting to think about how the Minnesota Twins pitching now fares in relation to the competition.The Rundown: Despite the AL Central being a division of the “haves” and “have nots,” virtually every team has starting pitching in some form or fashion. Cleveland may have some questions on the back end, but they have one of the best arms in baseball. Chicago has gotten better while Minnesota has advanced in recent seasons. Both Kansas City and Detroit are ready to lean on prospects. Cleveland Terry Francona has had an embarrassment of riches when it comes to starting pitching in recent years. Unfortunately, his organization is no longer trying to the same extent this season, and Carlos Carrasco has been moved as part of that reality. Trevor Bauer is now also two years departed and there’s much uncertainty behind his traditional ace. Shane Bieber took home the AL Cy Young in 2020 and will enter the 2021 season looking to validate the performance over a longer haul. He was dominant in virtually every performance, and Cleveland will need that output from him given their projected offensive struggles. Behind Bieber there’s established arms in the form of Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac. Both are solid if not unexciting at this point. Most teams will drop off following their top three, and that’s true for Cleveland. Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen should be expected to get first crack at turns four and five. They are both heralded prospects and the goal would be for an organization that’s shown success developing arms, to continue it here. Chicago White Sox After being acquired as the headliner for Adam Eaton, Lucas Giolito will now be teammates with his trade partner. Despite scuffling his first full season in 2018, it was in 2019 that the White Sox ace put it all together. Giolito earned an All Star bid and finished 6th in Cy Young voting. He was relatively the same last season in the shortened campaign, again earning Cy Young votes and finishing 7th in 2020. Dallas Keuchel returns as a trusted veteran arm for Chicago, and while he’s not the same pitcher he was for the Astros a handful of years ago, expecting him to take the ball and get the job done is a good bet. Chicago acquired Lance Lynn from the Texas Rangers, and he rounds out what may be the best top-three in the division. Lynn has consistently been a force, outside of his year with the Twins, and putting that level of production into the three-hole is quite the luxury. Predicting who or how the White Sox will fare in their final two spots is anyone’s guess. Dylan Cease was a former prospect for the Cubs but hasn’t seen much consistent big-league success. Reynaldo Lopez has been all over the map, and Carlos Rodon hasn’t taken the steps forward Chicago would’ve like to have seen at this point. Detroit Tigers If the Tigers are going to be bad, it’s their rotation that should be a good deal of fun. Matt Boyd will again be the staff ace. He looked the part of a legit trade piece not too long ago but has since turned back into a pumpkin. A.J. Hinch will be tasked with righting that ship, and likely re-establishing his value before the 2021 trade deadline. Behind the top spot though is where Detroit gets exciting. Tarik Skubal didn’t have the helium fellow prospect Casey Mize did, but he may end up being equally as impressive on the mound. Both have significant prospect pedigree to this point and seeing them develop at the highest level is where Tigers fans will be pinning their future hopes. There isn’t a ton of certainty beyond that for the Detroit rotation as Michael Fulmer remains a serious question mark, Spencer Turnbull is a veteran without much of a ceiling, and Jose Urena was acquired as a waiver claim from the Miami Marlins. Detroit still has Matt Manning waiting in the wings as a top 100 prospect as well, and he could force his way into the mix sooner rather than later. Minnesota Twins If there’s a team in the division that knows which five arms it will slot in come Opening Day, it’s the Minnesota Twins. Kenta Maeda looked the part of a guy who could be an ace and just needed to escape the shadows of Los Angeles all this time. He was arguably the best pitcher in baseball not named Shane Bieber for 2020 and expecting him to replicate that performance in 2021 isn’t much of a stretch. Jose Berrios still has to prove he can tap into the potential assumed to be there for him, but a level of consistency was Minnesota’s goal going into 2020. Looking to avoid the late summer swoon, he changed his offseason program and will get to see the impact of that for the first time over a full 162 in 2021. Michael Pineda may be among the best number three starters in baseball, and the way he’s worked out for the Twins has to have them grinning about the decision to ink him during a rehab year. From there it will be J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker. The former was solid in 2021 and owned a 3.44 ERA from 2016-18. The latter has never been able to stay consistently healthy but has flashed positive signs when on the mound. Depth behind them will be utilized, but that should be the group heading north. Kansas City Royals Somewhat similar to the Tigers, this club should struggle but has some equally interesting pieces. Kansas City also took some risks this winter that could pay off well for them. Brad Keller has all but earned the top of the rotation spot here, and club veteran Danny Duffy will follow him. From there the Royals have two prospects that should continue to be worth watching all year long. Brady Singer was a college standout and will look to cement his place in the big leagues, while Kris Bubic took 10 turns last year and entered 2020 as a top 100 guy. Kansas City nabbed Mike Minor in free agency, and the veteran should find his way in any one of the three back half positions. He pitched for the Royals back in 2017 and posted a career best 2.55 ERA across 77.2 innings as a reliever. Since going back to starting he owns a 4.07 ERA in 422 innings, but there’s been substantial stretches of even more impressive stuff. Grade Em’ Download attachment: Top.PNG Cleveland B Most outlets love on the Cleveland staff because of what it has been. There’s no denying that Bieber is a legit ace, but I think there’s more substance needed to determine what Plesac and Civale are. On top of that, McKenzie and Allen remain wild cards regardless of their prospect status. Chicago White Sox B+ It was hard not to give the White Sox an “A” grade of some sorts here. Their top three could be among the best in baseball (not counting the Los Angeles Dodgers obviously). However, the problem is that after Lance Lynn they could also be a complete dumpster fire. What Reynaldo Lopez is may be indicative of how the first half goes for Chicago. Detroit Tigers C Not knowing what version of Matt Boyd shows up for 2021 makes this difficult, but Detroit should be looking to get the most from him before using him as a deadline chip. I’m high on Skubal and Mize has gotten plenty of praise on his own. Turnbull doesn’t do much for me, and neither does Fulmer, but Urena is two years removed from being really solid and remains just 29 years old. Minnesota Twins B Arguably the most established group of the division, Minnesota has a group that should represent a relatively safe floor. Both Maeda and Berrios are high upside arms while Pineda has emerged as a legit threat. Happ can be what Rich Hill was intended for last season and getting anything out of Shoemaker allows the depth to work itself out. Kansas City Royals C- Again, similar to the Tigers, there’s prospect development worth being excited about here. Brad Keller shouldn’t be a top of the rotation arm, and Danny Duffy may have run his course. I think the Minor move was a shrewd one though, and Bubic looked the part a season ago. If Singer can round into a legit starting arm things look better, and both Daniel Lynch and Asa Lacy could be on the way soon. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins will enter 2021 as one of the best teams in baseball, and whether they’re projected to win the AL Central or not, a few top prospects should be expected to help them along the way.In recent years, this piece has been a mainstay in the Twins Prospect Handbook. With only Alternate Site action in 2020 however, Seth decided to shelve the project for 2021. Although development is rarely linear, it also wasn’t as accessible or visible a season ago. There are some guys that should still be expected to claw their way onto the 26-man at some point during the upcoming season. Full disclosure, Royce Lewis would’ve appeared on this list had he not torn his ACL. April- Alex Kirilloff I considered making Kirilloff ineligible for this list as he technically debuted already. However, the Postseason appearance doesn’t count for regular season production, so he’ll still have a debut happen in 2021. Despite it being logical from a talent standpoint, I don’t think he’ll make the Opening Day roster. Kirilloff will experience a service time related delay and should be up before the season’s first month is over. Here’s to hoping he mashes at Triple-A and the Saints have a bunch of fun with him for a brief stretch. May- Nick Gordon Gordon has appeared in this piece previously and never made the leap. I think 2021 is probably the time it has to happen, or it’ll end up happening for another club. The former first round pick hasn’t lived up to his prospect billing but expecting him to be a regular contributor in an infield utility role still remains a good bet. He’s not a shortstop anymore, but he handled the bat well in his second stint of Triple-A. Losing 2020 due to Covid hurt him for sure, but I wouldn’t see a reason he couldn’t overtake someone like Willians Astudillo with a strong start to the year. June- Jhoan Duran You’ll have different preferences on the Twins top pitching prospect depending on who you talk to or which list you look at. Jordan Balazovic is on the 40-man roster as well, and Matt Canterino should be knocking on the door soon also. What I think gives Duran and inside track to debut first is the velocity behind his fastball. If Minnesota needs a lift in relief, he could find his first innings coming out of the bullpen. It’d still be the plan to have Jhoan work out as a starter long term, but triple-digit stuff is always going to play in relief and could be a nice addition for a team with deep Postseason aspirations. July- Gilberto Celestino Similarly, to a promotion of someone like Jake Cave or LaMonte Wade in recent seasons, Celestino should be viewed as the first guy to get an outfield look if there’s an injury. He’s an excellent defender and can definitely handle centerfield, something only Byron Buxton can truly accomplish among those that will be on the Opening Day roster. I don’t know if the bat is quite ready, and Kyle Garlick as a waiver claim could keep him down a bit longer, but I was somewhat surprised we didn’t see Celestino during the truncated 2020. August- Trevor Larnach For the sake of throwing out a guy not currently on the 40-man I think Larnach makes the most sense and this timeframe is logical. He should start at Double-A Wichita and could quickly make his was to Triple-A St. Paul (like, as soon as Kirilloff is promoted). Larnach is a corner guy, but his bat has played at every level and continuing to expect that should allow him to force his way onto the Major League roster. A guy like this isn’t going to come up and sit, so there would need to be an opening, but the talent should be ready. September- Jordan Balazovic Roster expansion has changed a bit during recent seasons, and the Twins may not want to start the clock on Balazovic. That said, he is already on the 40-man, and a spot start or two down the stretch could help arms stay fresh for the Postseason. The Canadian-born pitcher has not started above High-A to this point, but he dominated the level during the 2019 campaign. I’d expect him to begin the year at Double-A Wichita, and he could make quick work of his remaining farm tasks. At 22, he’s still got plenty to develop into, but a taste of the big leagues on a Postseason team may serve him well. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Just one day after full squad workouts commenced there was some bad news on the prospect front, and some great news as it relates to fans clamoring for baseball.Royce Lewis Tears ACL Much like plenty of top Twins prospects before him, Royce Lewis was hit with devastating news following concerns during his intake screening. Knee discomfort led to an MRI and ultimately it revealed he had a torn ACL. The 2021 season is over for Minnesota’s prospect before it began. Mentally the road back is a grind, but if there’s someone prepared to take it head on, there’s no doubt it’s Royce. Spring Training Tickets Go Fast Minnesota had already sold a number of Spring Training tickets to season ticket holders, but the remaining allotment went on sale to the public this morning at 10am CT. By 10:30 they had sold through what was left over. All tickets were sold in pod arrangements of two or four allowing for social distancing and additional safety measures. It’s not surprising that fans would be excited to get back in a ballpark after a year away, and the hope is that the trend can continue when the team returns to Target Field in April. The Twins will host roughly 2,400 fans per game at Hammond Stadium this spring. A 25% capacity at Target Field would be right around 10,000 fans per game. Both the Twins and Saints are looking towards the regular season attendance and the hope would be that they can have fans as soon as Opening Day. That remains to be seen however and would require further concessions from the Governor. Odorizzi Sorting Through Suitors It was my stance that Jake Odorizzi was potentially the best free agent starting pitcher on the market not-named-Trevor-Bauer this offseason. He’s still unsigned but that could soon be coming to an end. It sounds like the Phillies are in play as are the Los Angeles Angels. With clubs now having started full squad workouts and an intake process following a contract, I’d think someone would want him joining camp sooner rather than later. Dancing Cavemen? You thought Jake Cave’s beard was the best development to come from the offseason had by the Twins outfielder. You thought wrong. Dustin Morse caught another Twins impromptu dance session during a lift, and well, Cave dropped it low here. Bulked Up Buck? Maybe it's the tale as old as time, but Byron Buxton bulked up this offseason. He's always been more slender and wiry, but the beat writers took notice of his frame and it appears he's added something like ten pounds of muscle. Already having been repositioned through the Twins analytics staff, Byron is looking to spend more time on the field in 2021. If that happens, he'll be in the MVP discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

As the Minnesota Twins enter 2021 a new rivalry has emerged. With the Chicago White Sox looking like contenders a season ago, a full 162-game schedule should provide plenty of excitement between the two clubs. Over the past couple of years Minnesota has been challenged at the top of the AL Central by the Cleveland Indians. They were a good team, with plenty of exciting stars, but unfortunately the fanbase never showed up. Ranking 21st in attendance during the 2019 season, Cleveland’s support system has always seemed relatively nonexistent. Maybe that’s why ownership felt the need to tear things down in the midst of a competitive window, but this ballclub has never seen the vocal support that the LeBron-led Cavs or Cleveland Browns have experienced. Enter the Chicago White Sox. Yes, their attendance in 2019 was awful as well, ranking 23rd in all of Major League Baseball. However, as the organization has developed its young stars, there’s a vocal fan base in a very large market. The White Sox made the Postseason in 2020 for the first time since 2008. The time before that however, 2005, they swept the Houston Astros en route to a World Series title. This organization has seen success, even if it hasn’t been extremely recent. Often times I’ve suggested that seeing a competitive club on a yearly basis is my desire as a fan. While winning a World Series is the ultimate goal, the stark reality is that 29 teams fall short every season. If the full 162-game schedule can provide some drama, meaningful October baseball can be played, and excitement be had along the way, I will have enjoyed roughly eight months of the year from a sports perspective. Include a rivalry that sparks debate, discussion, and intensified importance on any number of games throughout the week and you’ve put a cherry on top. From guys like Barstool’s own White Sox Dave, or Twitter-famous ChiSoxFanMike, the White Sox have a well-represented fanbase. As with any situation there’s some rose-colored glasses type of takes, but it’s oddly refreshing to see banter and interaction each and every time Chicago’s South Side contingent is mentioned in the context of opinion. It’s foolish to think that an improved White Sox team with another year of youth development will finish behind Cleveland again in 2021. The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox will battle all year at the top of the AL Central, and with both likely destined for the playoffs, it should provide plenty of must-see moments along the way. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Brian Dozier announced his retirement today in a press conference with for the Minnesota Twins. As the 2021 club kicks off their Spring Training tomorrow, that move dominated the headlines.Dozier Hangs Em’ Up After briefly playing for the New York Mets during the truncated 2020 Major League Baseball season, Brian Dozier decided he’d done what he could for the game. He retired with a press conference hosted by the Minnesota Twins today. The fan-favorite second basemen leaves the sport with 1,144 games played, 192 dingers, a Gold Glove, and a World Series ring as a member of the 2019 Washington Nationals. Coming up as a shortstop and moving two the other side of the bag, he became one of the most prolific home run hitters at the position for a brief stretch. In Twins history, Dozier is joined by only Harmon Killebrew and Nelson Cruz as the only other players to surpass 40 homers in a single season. What started with the flow will always be remembered by the smile. Enjoy retirement Doz! Minor League Schedules Unveiled Today teams across the minor leagues announced their schedules for the upcoming season. Triple-A will begin in April with Single and Double-A leagues kicking off in May. The St. Paul Saints begin their inaugural season as an affiliated club, and the Wichita Wind Surge kick off their first year as an organization as well. For Minnesota there’s plenty of intrigue given a new Triple-A team in their own backyard, a first time Double-A club, and a newly branded Single-A unit. Alex Kirilloff is the name to watch when it comes to the minors out of the gate as the assumption is he’ll be sent to St. Paul in order to hold back his service time. Does he force the Twins hand? Can fans see him at a discounted rate for a month? Lots to watch there. Arms on the Move Oakland entered the free agent party in somewhat of a big way today as they signed Trevor Rosenthal to a one-year deal worth $11 million. He was considered among the best available free agent options remaining, and the Athletics needed to shore up a relief corps that lost Liam Hendriks. They did also ink first basemen Mitch Moreland today. Set to play his 19th year in the big leagues, Oliver Perez rejoined Cleveland for the upcoming season. Perez pitched in 21 games last year and posted a 2.00 ERA. He’s played for eight different clubs during his career, but he’ll need another seven years under his belt to even up his time spent in the National League. Taijuan Walker has been noted as the Mets primary target, but former Twins starter Jake Odorizzi remains unsigned and has arguably the better resume. He posted a video to Twitter today showing off his first day of Spring Training. Minnesota hasn’t been closely linked at all, and should Odorizzi get a market value deal, there’s not much reason to believe he’ll return. Realmuto On the Mend After signing a five-year deal worth $115 million to return as the Phillies backstop, J.T. Realmuto will miss a bulk of Spring Training action. He suffered a broken thumb on his throwing hand and the hope is that he’ll be ready for Opening Day. The Philadelphia star has roughly a month of runway to heal, but he’ll need to knock off the rust due to missed game action. More Twins Prospect Steam… Kiley McDaniel, formerly of Fangraphs, revealed his top 10 Twins prospects today at ESPN. You need to be an ESPN+ subscriber for the full list, but let’s just say the Matt Canterino steam remains incredibly strong. Showing Up Early The Twins pitchers and catchers report day isn't actually until tomorrow, but Communications Director Dustin Morse is always showing off some goodies on Twitter. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article