Ted Schwerzler

We are officially into trade deadline season and the Minnesota Twins are leading the American League Central Division. It’s probably not a certainty that the club would need to add a bat, but if they want to get creative there’s roster spots to improve upon. Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins rosters. It’s on the mound that most of the focus should be pointed, but there’s little reason to turn away from a competent hitter if a fit is deemed strong and valuable. The 5 Best Starting Pitching Trade Targets The 5 Best Relief Pitching Trade Targets Rocco Baldelli’s club is less pressed in the lineup, even though they’ve gone silent at times. Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff have solidified first base for the most part, and Jorge Polanco has returned healthy at second base. Minnesota has flexibility at third, and Luis Arraez has been great about filling in wherever. The outfield is also largely set and knowing Trevor Larnach will be back helps. If the Twins were to acquire a bat, it probably comes as a utility type or behind the plate. Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire: Brandon Drury - Cincinnati Reds - 29 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 16 HR 124 OPS+ The Reds have plenty to piece out, and while they aren’t as bad as they started, this isn’t an organization that wants to win either. Drury is a stereotypical utility man that can play all over the diamond. He’s played every infield position aside from appearing behind the plate this season, and he was previously an outfielder at times for both the Mets and Blue Jays. This is easily a career year for the veteran, and the Reds will look to extract value out of a guy making just $900k. He did put up a solid 2021 season as well, but both of these sample sizes are relatively small. Drury is posting a career best 11% barrel rate, but his expected stats are below actual production. He’s seen success by lowering whiff and chase rates which is a solid procedural change. A free agent following the season, there shouldn’t be much in the way of acquisition cost here. Christian Walker - Arizona Diamondbacks - 31 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 21 HR 123 OPS+ You could call Walker a slugger at first base but that would be selling his impact short. Yes, he blasts the ball into the seats and isn’t a high average guy by any means, but he’s also a very good defender. With 12 defensive runs saved and eight outs above average, he brings plenty of value to the lineup. Walker’s expected batting average is also nearly 70 points higher than it currently rests, and his expected slugging percentage checks in at a whopping .598. He’s barrelling baseballs at a ridiculous 15% of the time, and his .183 BABIP suggests even more offense could be had here. Walker is playing on a $2.6 million deal this season and remains under team control for each of the next two seasons. Minnesota making a move at first base would largely be reflective of how they want to use Miranda, Kirilloff, and Gio Urshela. Ian Happ - Chicago Cubs - 27 yrs old 2.3 fWAR 8 HR 136 OPS+ A former 9th overall pick, Happ’s value isn’t solely rooted in the longball. He’s at home in the outfield and would be able to play a strong centerfield, but he can also play on the dirt. Happ has previously earned MVP votes and he’s posted better than a league-average OPS+ each of his six pro seasons. Happ’s barrel rate is down some, but his expected slugging percentage suggests there’s a bit of room to grow. He’s never previously experienced this muted level of home run production, and coming off of 25 last year, a second half surge may happen for an acquiring club. Happ is making $6.85 million this year and is arbitration eligible again in 2023 before becoming a free agent. Josh Bell - Washington Nationals - 29 yrs old 2.5 fWAR 12 HR 164 OPS+ On a one-year deal with the Nationals, it always seemed like Bell may wind up as trade fodder at the deadline. He hasn’t produced the same home run numbers we’ve seen from him before, but this is a career year by every other measure. Bell’s hard hit rate dropping below 30% for the first time in his career is likely part of the lost power, but his 8.8% whiff rate is lower than anything he’s shown since 2016 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Traditionally somewhat of a lackluster defensive option, he’s produced positive numbers by both DRS and OAA this season. Bell should be one of the most coveted bats on the market this year, and at $10 million, for the season, his remaining money won’t be substantial. Willson Contreras - Chicago Cubs - 30 yrs old 22.9 fWAR 13 HR 152 OPS+ The Cubs have some very intriguing options all over the diamond, but there’s no denying the best talent is their catcher, Contreras. Offensively he’s pulverizing the baseball and experiencing a career year. The expected stats suggest this is substantiated, and if anything, may trend even further upwards. The 44.8% hard hit rate is a career high, and not at all a surprise with how well he’s seeing the ball at the plate. A knock is probably the defense, which has not previously been the case. After 8 DRS last season, Contreras is at -6 thus far in 2022. He’s not a good framer either, but is throwing out a league average amount of would be base stealers. Minnesota may benefit from a catching upgrade, but it’d be quite a luxury for them to go get the best bat available at the position. Cabrera is making $9.625 million this season in his final year of arbitration, and he’ll be a free agent following the season. If Minnesota targets a bat, who would you like them to grab and why? View full article

We are officially into trade deadline season and the Minnesota Twins are leading the American League Central Division. Knowing that this club should add in order to make a Postseason push, there’s plenty of places the roster could afford an influx of ability. Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins rosters. The piece covered hitters and pitchers alike, but in this space, we’ll key in on starters. Rocco Baldelli has gotten more than could’ve been expected from Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy, but Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan can’t carry the load themselves. Minnesota has used 10 different starting pitchers this season, and that number should be expected to rise before the final game. Adding a more stabilizing talent to the group would be a substantial benefit. Even if Kenta Maeda comes back this season, he's likely to be in relief. The 5 Best Relief Pitching Trade Targets The 5 Best Hitting Trade Targets Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire: Luis Castillo - Cincinnati Reds - 29 yrs old 1.5 fWAR 3.09 ERA 3.24 FIP 9.3 K/9 The Reds missed Castillo’s presence to begin the year as he was dealing with an injury, but then again they just lost a ton of games he wasn’t part of. Castillo is back to being the dominant starter he’s always been and may be the biggest name on the starting pitching market. Castillo’s xFIP and xERA numbers are both roughly the exact same as the actual marks. His strike and walk numbers are basically what they’ve always been, which is to say very good. The Reds starter has a big 96.8 mph average fastball, but he’s heavily reliant on offspeed to set it up. His whiff and chase rates are both down, but barring there are no big red flags in terms of health, this is an elite arm in every sense of the word. It would also be interesting to see Minnesota pair Castillo with former teammate, Gray. Castillo is being paid $7.35 million this year and is in his final year of arbitration in 2023 before hitting free agency in 2024. Pablo Lopez - Miami Marlins - 26 yrs old 1.6 fWAR 2.97 ERA 3.54 FIP 8.9 K/9 Miami has two solid arms that should draw plenty of attention. Sandy Alcantara would top this list, but it seems malpractice to deal a guy you just signed to a five-year deal this offseason. Maybe the Marlins would prefer to extend Lopez this offseason, but he should draw plenty of trade interest. The xERA and xFIP numbers aren’t as glowing as the ERA, but the peripherals are intriguing. A loss of just over one mph off of his average fastball velocity from last season is concerning, but he’s also using his fastball more than ever. Lopez has a career-high whiff rate and reason to believe in future projection. He’s being paid just $2.45 million this season and isn’t a free agent until 2025. Merrill Kelly - Arizona Diamondbacks - 33 yrs old 1.7 fWAR 3.46 ERA 3.40 FIP 7.3 K/9 It may be Zac Gallen that’s the more coveted arm from Arizona, but Kelly currently shows up here. He’s not a high strikeout guy, and the 4.05 xFIP isn’t dazzling even if the 3.58 xERA doesn’t suggest substantial regression. Kelly is giving up more free passes this season, but allowing fewer homers. The 28.8% hard-hit rate is solid, and he misses solid contact with just a 92.5 mph fastball. Most of Kelly’s pitches play of variations from his fastball, but he relies pretty heavily on getting ground balls at a rate close to 50% of the time. Kelly is being paid $5.25 million this season, with another $18 million that kicks in next season and runs through 2024. He then has a $7 million team option in 2025, which would be his age-36 season. Frankie Montas - Oakland Athletics - 29 yrs old 1.9 fWAR 3.26 ERA 3.30 FIP 9.3 K/9 The Athletics are largely playing with fire in regards to Montas. He was dangled in the offseason and now they’ve run him out for 17 starts. He left his most recent outing with what’s being called precautionary for shoulder inflammation, but Montas being hurt would substantially shift the market. He’s been every bit the pitcher he was in 2021, when he finished 6th in the American League Cy Young voting. Montas has had a 96 mph fastball for years now, and his 12.9% whiff rate is above his career average. There’s not a ton of mystery here, Montas will be among the most coveted arms on the market if he’s healthy. Being paid $5.03 million this season before a final year of arbitration eligibility next year, Montas becomes a free agent in 2024. Tyler Mahle - Cincinnati Reds - 27 yrs old 2.0 fWAR 4.48 ERA 3.55 FIP 9.9 K/9 If there’s an arm that could have more to give, it may be Mahle’s. He owns a 3.22 xERA although there is the 4.05 xFIP. Mahle doesn’t allow hard contact, having last been over 30% in 2019. This season his fly ball rate and ground ball rate have flipped, but he’s still generate a strong whiff and chase rate. Mahle is a mid-velocity starter averaging 93.7 mph on his fastball. He’s just now starting to use his slider a bit more, and Minnesota may make tweaks to that arsenal with hopes of squeezing out more value. Mahle may not be at his best, but he’s still very good, paid just $5.2 million this season, and is under team control next year. Which starter would you like to see the Twins trade for and why? View full article

We are officially into trade deadline season and the Minnesota Twins are leading the American League Central Division. It’s all but certain they’ll make additions to a squad they signed Carlos Correa to play for, and the bullpen may be their most integral need. Last week I wrote a Trade Manifesto presenting 49 names that could be a potential fit to the Twins' rosters. Hitters were included, but the analysis focused on pitchers. Rocco Baldelli’s club would benefit from both starting and relief arms, but we’ll start in the bullpen. The 5 Best Hitting Trade Targets The 5 Best Starting Pitching Trade Targets Following Wes Johnson’s departure for LSU, Pete Maki has taken over as pitching coach. We haven’t and won’t see some seismic shift in the relief group, but it’s clear that names like Tyler Duffey and Emilio Pagan have walked a tightrope at times this year. It’s necessary that Minnesota supplements its group and brings in help. Here are the five best names from the Trade Manifesto that they could acquire: Michael Fulmer - Detroit Tigers - 29 yrs old 0.7 fWAR 2.15 ERA 3.12 FIP 8.9 K/9 The former 1st round pick and top prospect has transitioned from the rotation to the bullpen. Over the past two seasons, he’s posted a 2.73 ERA across 99 innings. His 3.36 FIP suggests the ERA is relatively believable. He has a solid 9.3 K/9 in that time, though it has dipped some this season. He’s been incredibly stingy when looking at home run rates, and that’s something that has bit Twins relievers to this point. Fulmer has a solid 2.22 xERA but the 4.25 xFIP could be concerning. He has also had arm issues in the past and his velocity is down a bit from where it was last season. Signed for just $4.95 million this season, he’s a free agent in 2023. Joe Mantiply - Arizona Diamondbacks - 31 yrs old 0.9 fWAR 1.20 ERA 1.92 FIP 8.7 K/9 Mantiply is a well-traveled veteran that didn’t establish himself in the majors until last season with Arizona. Across 39 2/3 innings, he posted a solid 3.40 ERA with even better peripherals. This season he’s substantiated it by performing better. Mantiply owns a 1.75 xERA and a 2.48 xFIP. He rarely serves up a long ball and he’s got a 29/1 K/BB across 30 innings this season. He is one of just three pitchers in the majors yet to allow a barreled ball this season, and he’s been a shining light on an otherwise baseball Diamondbacks ballclub. As a lefty, he could bring an otherwise under-represented handedness to the relief core. Mantiply throws just 90.6 mph with his fastball, just a bit below where he was last season, but he’s a sinker slider pitcher. Mantiply is pre-arbitration and won’t hit the market until 2027. Anthony Bass - Miami Dolphins - 34 yrs old 0.9 fWAR 1.60 ERA 2.34 FIP 8.0 K/9 One of baseball’s more consistent relievers since 2018, Bass has ratcheted up his performance this season for the Marlins. He had a decent year in 2021 but owns a 2.74 xERA and 3.77 xFIP in 2022. He’s giving up a career-low number of free passes and longballs, while also being within a sub-1.000 WHIP for just the second time in his career. Pushing his fastball to 95.1 mph this season, he’s near a career-best in average velocity. Bass dominates with his slider, a pitch that Minnesota loves to use. He’s in the final year of his contract with the Marlins but carries a $3 million team option for 2023. David Bednar - Pittsburgh Pirates - 27 yrs old 1.0 fWAR 2.43 ERA 2.52 FIP 12.2 K/9 The Pittsburgh Pirates have a surprisingly low number of enticing assets despite being a team willing to sell, but that’s what happens when you’re bad. Wil Crowe could be moved from their pen too, but Bednar is the prize. A 2.82 xERA and 2.92 xFIP are both very strong. The strikeout numbers are great, and Bednar allows just a 27.4% hard-hit rate. He averages 97 mph on his fastball and is generating a career-best 15.8% whiff rate. Bednar has been a dominant arm out of the pen for the Pirates each of the past two seasons and has closing experience as well. With youth to his credit and under team control through 2026, he’ll have a higher price tag. Scott Effross - Chicago Cubs - 28 yrs old 1.1 fWAR 2.62 ERA 1.63 FIP 11.5 K/9 After signing Marcus Stroman this winter I’d imagine the Cubs were hoping to be better than this. They aren’t though, and Effross is the gem of the bullpen. Making 14 appearances in 2021, Effross has taken a small sample size and improved upon it. His 2.15 xERA and 2.42 xFIP are both impressive, and he’s avoided damage thanks to a 21.8% hard-hit rate. Effross is not a big velocity guy, averaging just over 90 mph on his fastball, but the sinker slider combo is one the Twins continue to work with. Effross doesn’t get a massive amount of swinging strikes, but he’s generated a good chase rate and is allowing just a 77.5% contact rate. Like Bednar, Effross is younger and remains under team control through 2027. Which reliever would you like to see the Twins trade for and why? View full article

In just one of the few Monday’s where there is minor league action this season, Matt Wallner provided all of the fireworks for the Fourth of July. Miguel Sano returned to action on a rehab assignment and runs were hard to come by at other stops on the farm. Transactions: Josh Winder transferred to Minnesota taxi squad Trevor Megill returned to Minnesota from MLB rehab with Saints Juan Minaya was designated for assignment by Minnesota SAINTS SENTINEL St. Paul 4, Louisville 1 Box Score Tonight’s game was supposed to be started by Josh Winder, but he was scratched and sent to Chicago joining the Minnesota Twins taxi squad. Dereck Rodriguez stepped up and filled in admirably. Working four innings of one-run ball, Rodriguez gave up three hits while striking out two. The lone run came on a solo blast. After getting down in the second inning, it took the Saints some time and good pitching to come back. Caleb Hamilton ripped his 8th homer, a solo blast in the 7th inning, to knot things up. St. Paul then took advantage of bad defense in the 8th inning when Louisville catcher Chris Okey uncorked an errant through trying to nail John Andreoli stealing third base. Andreoli was able to scamper home from there and Elliot Soto moved up to third after stealing second on his own. A wild pitch then gave Soto the opportunity to score, and a Michael Helman single brought in Spencer Steer. Yennier Cano came on and was the fifth different Saints reliever to work a scoreless outing. Cano got the save, his second of the year. Evan Sisk got his first win for St. Paul while Austin Schfuler got his first hold. It was St. Paul’s pitching that got them to the finish line tonight as the lineup tallied just four hits with Hamilton’s longball being the only extra-base contribution. WIND SURGE WISDOM Wichita 5, Amarillo 3 Box Score Veteran Daniel Gossett got the start for Wichita tonight and turned in the longest outing on the farm. His five innings saw two runs (one earned) plated one four hits. Gossett punched out seven and walked three. He lowered his Double-A ERA this season to 1.96. Amarillo started the scoring but scorching hot Matt Wallner quickly erased the lead with his 19th homer of the season. Chris Williams then launched his own dinger, a two-run shot scoring Kyle Schmidt, to make it 3-1. After Amarillo added a run on a 3rd inning double, Wallner hit his second dinger of the day, and 20th of the season. This one was of the two-run variety plating Leobaldo Cabrera and making it a 5-2 game. Schmidt allowed a passed ball in the 7th inning to bring Amarillo back within two, 5-3. Steven Cruz came on to slam the door and generate his second save giving the Wind Surge a two-run victory. Wallner was joined by Williams, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and Anthony Prato with two hits apiece. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 12, Quad Cities 4 Box Score Miguel Rodriguez got the start for Cedar Rapids tonight and he went three innings allowing two runs on solo homers. Quad Cities tagged him for three hits while Rodriguez responded with two strikeouts. Quad Cities broke open the scoring with a pair of homers in the 2nd inning, but Cedar Rapids took things into their hands during the 4th inning. Yunior Severino launched a home run for his third of the season to bring the Kernels within one. In the 5th inning Seth Gray evened things on a single to left that scored Jake Rucker. From there Severino singled to short and both Gray and Alerick Soularie scored on a fielder error. When Quad Cities pitcher Ruben Ramirez uncorked a wild pitch, Severino was able to scamper home and make it a 5-2 game. The River Bandits tried to make things interesting adding runs in both the 7th and 8th innings, but that’s where the door would get slammed. The Kernels made it a laugher in the bottom of the 8th inning. First Dylan Neuse doubled in Jeferson Morales. Then a Kyler Fedko triple plated Neuse and Rucker. Gray singled in Fedko and Pat Winkel then plated both Gray and Soularie on a single of his own. Wander Javier capped the scoring with a sacrifice fly to drive in Severino and make it a 12-4 game. Gray tallied three hits on the evening while Fedko, Severino, and Winkel each added two of their own. MUSSEL MATTERS Tampa 5, Fort Myers 1 Box Score The Mighty Mussels called on Travis Adams tonight for their Independence Day start and he went two innings while allowing two runs on three hits and striking out two. This was a forgettable contest for Fort Myers as they posted just a single run on three hits. Tampa put up two in the 1st inning, one in the 4th inning, one in the 6th inning, and one in the 7th inning. Rubel Cespedes clobbered a homer, his second, in the 8th inning to put the Mighty Mussels on the board. With just three hits, no Fort Myers hitter recorded multiples on the evening. Cespedes' dinger was the only hit for extra-bases. COMPLEX CHRONICLES FCL Twins 4, FCL Braves 1 Box Score Juan Rojas made the start for the Twins and was great. Across five scoreless innings he allowed just two hits and punched out five. Danny De Andrade picked up another two-hit game, this time recording his first triple of the season. Miguel Sano also began his rehab assignment following knee surgery. He was 0-for-4 but didn’t strike out. His rehab assignment can be a maximum of 20 days and will head to Triple-A St. Paul when he’s deemed ready for the next stage of the process. DOMINICAN DAILIES DSL Twins 5, DSL Dodgers Bautista 3 (F/6) Box Score Jose Rodriguez provided most of the offense in this one as he went 2-for-2 with a pair of homers. Rodriguez scored three times and drove in two runs. Catcher Jesus Peraza also had a two-hit game in the victory. Leonardo Luge got the win, the first of his professional career, working three innings in relief. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Daniel Gossett (Wichita) - 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K Hitter of the Day – Matt Wallner (Wichita) - 2-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 HR(20), K PROSPECT SUMMARY We will again keep tabs on the Twins top prospects. You’ll probably read about them in the team sections, but if they aren’t there, you’ll see how they did here. Here’s a look at how the current Twins Daily Top 20 performed: #3 - Jose Miranda (Minnesota) - 0-2, BB #7 - Spencer Steer (St. Paul) - 0-3, R, BB #9 - Noah Miller (Ft. Myers) - 0-3, BB, K #15 - Matt Wallner (Wichita) - 2-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 HR(20), K #16 - Edouard Julien (Wichita) - 0-4, 2 K WEDNESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS (No games on Tuesday) St. Paul @ Louisville (6:05PM CST) - RHP Cole Sands Amarillo @ Wichita (7:05PM CST) - RHP Louie Varland Quad Cities @ Cedar Rapids (6:35PM CST) - TBD Fort Myers @ Tampa (5:30PM CST) - RHP Marco Raya Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Monday’s games! It sure is exciting to have all four Twins full-season affiliates and the two Complex Season affiliates back and playing. View full article

The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians just wrapped up a stretch of eight games against one another with no ground being gained on either side. The White Sox have taken another step backwards and the Kansas City Royals broke the trading dam as we enter the month of the deadline. The Standings: Minnesota 43-36 Cleveland 39-34 Chicago 35-39 Detroit 29-45 Kansas City 27-47 Minnesota did take back over the top of the division after briefly ceding it by percentage points, but run differential continues to tell another story for everyone not named the Twins. The AL Central continues to be a weak division overall, and most projection systems continue to believe in the White Sox pretty heavily. The Stories: For Minnesota it’s been an emergence of the youngsters. While Trevor Larnach was put on the injured list and core-muscle surgery, Jorge Polanco returned and both Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff have been substantial in the lineup. Kirilloff is hitting for power we never previously saw prior to his St. Paul demotion, and Miranda has been on an absolute tear over the past month. The rotation got some health injected into it with both Sonny Gray and Josh Winder returning to their spots as well. It's still clear this club needs to make trade there are more than a few options out there. White Sox superstar Tim Anderson was named a finalist to start at shortstop in the All-Star Game. The game will take place at Dodgers Stadium in a couple of weeks. Yoan Moncada was activated off the injured list on Tuesday and him being a consistent option for Tony La Russa’s lineup would be something that the club has not yet seen this season. Lenyn Sosa made his MLB debut while Moncada was out, and collected his first hit. Chicago hit the skids a bit this past week going 4-6 over their last ten and dropping to -48 in the run differential column.. Walk offs were the name of the game for Cleveland this week. The Guardians walked Minnesota off twice to end the second series they played each other, and Terry Francona’s club routinely bludgeoned Minnesota’s bullpen. Andres Gimenez was responsible for one of the walk-offs and has put up an All-Star-worthy campaign. Jose Ramirez was named a finalist to start at third base in the All-Star Game. Cleveland did also acquire Sandy Leon from the Cincinnati Reds while they lost Ian Gibaut to the Los Angeles Dodgers on waivers. Things are relatively status quo in Detroit, which is to say not exceptionally great. They did sign right-handed pitcher Drew Hutchison to a minor league deal after he had elected free agency a week prior. The Tigers shipped catcher Ryan Lavarnway to the Miami Marlins late last week in a depth move. He had played 44 games at Triple-A Toledo but had not made a big league appearance yet in 2022. Lavarnway was assigned to Triple-A Jacksonville by Miami. Miguel Cabrera also moved up on the all-time hits leaderboard in the past week as well. Kansas City made the biggest waves this week when they capitalized on a hot stretch from veteran Carlos Santana and dealt him to the Seattle Mariners for right-handed pitchers Wyatt Mills and William Fleming. The next move that came from this deal was a big one in that the Royals were able to promote their third-best prospect, Vinnie Pasquantino. They did have to place right-handed pitcher Josh Staumont on the injured list with a next strain. Veteran starter Zack Greinke made his 500th career start. The Week Ahead: After dealing with a divisional foe twice in the last week, Minnesota gets Baltimore at home over the weekend before traveling to face the White Sox for a three-game series starting on Independence Day. A much-needed off day is coming on Thursday. Finishing their west coast trip with a three-game set in San Francisco, Chicago returns home for the Twins series and then welcomes Detroit into town for a four-game series that goes through the weekend. Things don’t get easier for Cleveland after needing to deal with the Twins. They stay at home this weekend, but an angry New York Yankees team comes to town after having been handled by the Houston Astros. Cleveland then has yet another double-header on Monday, starting four games in three days with the Tigers. It’s all AL Central action for Detroit. Kansas City is in town this weekend, then the Cleveland series, and the week finishes with a four-game set on the road against the White Sox. Kansas City’s test won’t be so much on the road against Detroit this week as much as it will be when they immediately travel to Houston for four with the Astros. Bringing up the rear of the division, the gap could get wider for them in a hurry? What are you looking forward to this week? Can Minnesota create some breathing room now getting to face teams not named the Guardians? View full article

For the games that were high in runs scored tonight, there were equal amounts that saw low totals. Matt Wallner blasted two dingers to make sure Wichita wouldn't be on the losing end of things, and Louie Varland did his best to hold serve on the mound. Cade Povich was great for Cedar Rapids, and a handful of other stars shined bright. Transactions: Kernels place INF Christian Encarnacion-Strand on IL with concussion SAINTS SENTINEL Omaha 10, St. Paul 0 Box Score Saints starter and top Twins pitching prospect Jordan Balazovic was on the mound to start this one, and he recorded just two outs before being lifted. Balazovic allowed seven runs, all earned, on seven hits. He walked none, struck out one, but gave up a whopping three homers. Knocking on the door of the big leagues, his Triple-A ERA is now 9.24 this season. After the wheels fell off for the starter, things continued to unravel the rest of the way. Omaha scored another run in the 3rd inning and then added yet another in the 5th inning. The Saints were looking at a 9-0 deficit just halfway through this contest. Giving up another run in the 8th inning, St. Paul had gotten to the point of a traditional run rule. With just five hits on the evening, two each coming from Spencer Steer and Curtis Terry, the production just wasn't going to be enough to get it done. WIND SURGE WISDOM Wichita 7, Springfield 6 Box Score Louie Varland took the pill tonight for the Wind Surge and worked 5 1/3 strong innings. He gave up three runs, only two of which were earned, but punched out nine while walking two and allowing five hits. Varland was again great and continues to look the part of a future piece for Minnesota. Edouard Julien continued to do damage at the plate and showed up early in this one. His seventh homer of the season was a solo shot to left field in the first inning putting Wichita up early. After Springfield tied things in the 2nd inning, Matt Wallner blasted his 17th home run of the year, a two-run shot, scoring Anthony Prato, to make it a 3-1 game in the 3rd inning. The Cardinals ultimately retook the lead by the bottom of the 6th inning, but the Wind Surge answered in the 7th inning. Andrew Bechtold roped his eighth double of the season to score Chris Williams and things were knotted at four. Wallner was not interested in extras tonight and provided separation when he launched his 18th homer, a second this evening, during the 8th inning, to provide another one-run lead. In the top of the 9th inning Kevin Merrell drove in Williams on a sacrifice fly before Bechtold crushed his eighth home run to make it 7-4. The Cardinals tried to make things interesting with a two-run homer in the 9th inning, but that's where their rally ended. Wichita made the most of their hits scoring seven runs on nine hits. Williams, Bechtold, and Wallner each recorded multi-hit games. Leobaldo Cabrera also showed up defensively making a home run saving catch. KERNELS NUGGETS Wisconsin 2, Cedar Rapids 1 Box Score Cade Povich was tabbed as tonight’s starter for Cedar Rapids and he continued to provide good outings as he has much of the season. Working six scoreless innings, Povich allowed just two runs on five hits while walking one and fanning three. The two runs both came on a 2nd inning homer. Wander Javier picked his pitcher up, getting one of the runs back in the 5th inning. The Kernels' shortstop crushed a ball way out to left field for his seventh ding-dong of the season. Unfortunately, that’s all the lineup could muster, despite out-hitting the Timber Rattlers six to five. Javier was the lone Kernel to record multiple hits on the night, adding a single to his longball. MUSSEL MATTERS Dunedin 2, Fort Myers 1 Box Score Stud pitching prospect Marco Raya was on the bump tonight for Fort Myers and he’s been great all year. Continuing to build back up after time missed, he worked three scoreless innings without allowing a hit or walk. Raya punched out four and dropped his season ERA to 2.77. Regi Grace followed with three scoreless innings. He struck out six batters and didn't issue a walk. The game remained scoreless into the middle innings until Keoni Cavaco crushed a homer, his fourth of the season, to center field. Fort Myers took the first lead of the game at 1-0. The Mighty Mussels did allow Dunedin to plate two in the top of the 8th inning, ceding the lead. Keeping it there into the 9th inning, they had their last opportunity. The Mussels managed just two hits in the game. With nothing to their credit in the 9th inning and just two hits total on the evening, Fort Myers went down without a fight. COMPLEX CHRONICLES FCL Twins 2, FCL Rays 1 Box Score Juan Nunez was great as today’s starter working five innings allowing just an unearned run on three hits. He punched out five and walked just two. Danny De Andrade was the lone Twins hitter to record multiple hits, both being singles. With two outs and runners at 2nd and 3rd in the 10th inning, Misael Urbina singled to left field scoring Ismael Perez and walking it off for the Twins. DOMINICAN DAILIES DSL Twins 1, DSL Nationals 0 (Susp/4) Box Score This game was suspended in the 4th inning with the DSL Twins leading 1-0. The Twins had recorded two hits, getting a home run from Rafael Cruz, his first of the season. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Louie Varland (Wichita) - 5.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K Hitter of the Day – Matt Wallner (Wichita) - 2-4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR PROSPECT SUMMARY We will again keep tabs on the Twins top prospects. You’ll probably read about them in the team sections, but if they aren’t there, you’ll see how they did here. Here’s a look at how the current Twins Daily Top 20 performed: #2 - Austin Martin (Wichita) - 0-4 #3 - Jose Miranda (Minnesota) - 1-4, 3 RBI, 2B, K #4 - Jordan Balazovic (St. Paul) - 0.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 1 K #7 - Spencer Steer (St. Paul) - 2-4, K, 2 2B #9 - Noah Miller (Ft. Myers) - 0-4 #10 - Marco Raya (Ft. Myers) - 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K #11 - Cade Povich (Cedar Rapids) - 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K #12 - Louie Varland (Wichita) - 5.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K #15 - Matt Wallner (Wichita) - 2-4, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 HR #16 - Edouard Julien (Wichita) - 1-3, R, RBI, HR, BB, K FRIDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Omaha @ St. Paul (7:07PM CST) - RHP Ronny Henriquez Wichita @ Springfield (7:05PM CST) - RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long Cedar Rapids @ Wisconsin (6:40PM CST) - TBD Dunedin @ Fort Myers (6:00PM CST) - RHP Jaylen Nowlin Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Thursday’s games! It sure is exciting to have all four Twins full-season affiliates and the two Complex Season affiliates playing. View full article

Prior to the 2022 Major League Baseball season I called Cole Sands a dark horse rotation candidate for the Minnesota Twins. Similar to Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan last year, he seemed like a guy that could step up. It hasn’t happened yet, but he’s now being given a chance to make it work. Last season Cole Sands pitched 80 1/3 innings for Double-A Wichita. He got four innings at Double-A, then in Pensacola, during the 2019 season before Covid shut down the minors in 2020. There’s no denying that Sands put up impressive numbers last season, but he wasn’t seen as a guy that would contribute at the highest level right out of the gate. While the excitement of a big-league debut is certainly a good thing, being asked to hold serve before you’re ready is a tall task. Sands made just four appearances, totaling 12 2/3 innings, with St. Paul before being thrust into action for the Twins. That debut came against a good Tampa Bay Rays lineup and didn’t go all that well. Then he was optioned. Until he wasn’t. But then was again. And then wasn’t. From April 24 through June 17 Sands was promoted to the Majors and optioned to St. Paul a total of six times. Obviously, the distance isn’t what it was when Minnesota had their Triple-A team in Rochester, New York, but the ability to build any sort of consistency was simply not there. Yesterday was the first time Sands pitched in three consecutive starts for the Saints since April 19. In total, he built up his innings count at Triple-A to 32 2/3. The numbers haven’t been what they were at Double-A a season ago, but for a guy being moved all over the place and still needing development, that’s hardly unexpected. After five strong innings today, Sands has allowed just two earned runs on 12 hits with a 16/5 K/BB across his last 14 innings (three starts). It’s not as though Sands is all of a sudden ready to make a leap back to the big leagues, but continuing down this path of consistency is something that should prove valuable when he’s called upon next. None of this is lost on him either, and Sands has been grateful for every opportunity put in his path this season. When I asked Sands about being able to put together a stretch in the same place where he knows that he’s taking the ball every fifth day he said, “I’ve learned a lot going up and down, but it’s honestly helped me a ton (to have some consistency). There’s been a lot of guys up there (with the Twins) that have helped with my pitches and how to use them. Ever since I’ve been back down, I see the game a little different now. There’s a design, an art, behind the pitchability side.” When asked about the change in now having a consistent run with the Saints for the first time since April, Sands talked about making things from his time in the big leagues feel consistent no matter where he is. “You have to treat it all the same, whether you’re there or here, you still have to go out and execute whatever the catcher puts down.” Sands misses Pitch-Com at the Triple-A level saying he wishes its technology wasn’t limited to the highest level. He loves the simplicity of not having to worry about the runner picking up on signs. “I’m a big fan,” he said. There’s no denying that Sands has faced some juggernauts during his time with the Twins. Having faced the Yankees, Rays, and Astros all in his big league career already, it’s a learning process to understand that you have to work with who’s up to bat in the big leagues rather than just being able to attack every minor league hitter. “Seeing that your stuff can get those guys out, it provides confidence down here knowing I can get anyone.” “It was a really cool experience to face the Yankees. When they called my name for that one I was like, no way! We didn’t win but I felt like I kept us in it. I’ve learned how to navigate through lineups. Which guys are you going to let beat you. I had to learn the hard way because Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton got me.” I did joke with Sands that those two get a lot of hitters, but it’s in that understanding that the Twins prospect has found growth. He’s not looking to settle into what’s happening at St. Paul, the goal is to be a consistent big leaguer. Being able to develop through a level of advanced learning and consistency though seems to have helped take things another step forward. Minnesota is hoping Sands winds up being a big piece of their future, and he sees that reality as something to strive for as well. View full article

You can't evaluate a trade for prospects on how it ultimately works out. So much development to be had, and it's never linear. This is about the idea of what was able to be acquired and where they're at now.

It's not a declaration either way, but the Twins got a TON of value at the time, and that's where you assess a trade for prospects. Tie in that Berrios has been terrible and it looks even better. Martin has been uninspiring but shown great plate discipline. SWR looks like a legit starting arm.

The Minnesota Twins traded staff ace Jose Berrios roughly a year ago, and at the time the return was seen as a massive win. Fast forward to today and I think it’s worth suggesting that things look even better. When dealing for prospects you have to evaluate the return in terms of value at the time of the deal. How development takes place and what happens in the future remains largely difficult to project. However, Minnesota netting the Toronto Blue Jays' top prospect in Austin Martin, and then one of the most coveted arms from the system in Simeon Woods Richardson, was nothing short of a miracle. Both of those players were thought to be a bit rich on their own, but Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were able to generate a package deal including both. Last week I wrote a piece wondering what has happened to Berrios. He’s been largely awful for the Blue Jays this season, and that’s disappointing to see as a Twins fan that so badly wanted him to be the ace here. Unlike the prospect capital in a deal though, a Major League veteran is largely an established commodity. Berrios taking a step backward makes it look that much more right that Minnesota decided they wouldn’t be the ones to pay him. For this evaluation though, the Twins getting the most out of this deal rests solely on the production of the pieces they got back. Unfortunately, Martin hasn’t produced as expected. He was seen as a talent that could’ve gone 1-1 in the 2020 draft before falling to fifth. He was a speedy shortstop that was also above average in centerfield, while possessing a hit tool that saw his average and on-base numbers reach gaudy thresholds. Thus far in professional baseball Martin has proven he’s not a shortstop, the power has been slow to develop, and his hit tool has provided just a .259 career average. On the flip side, Martin still has elite on-base skills owning a career .395 OBP, and he’s looked the part of a true outfielder with the glove, speed, and range. If there’s a saving grace for Martin’s projection in the Twins system it’s that he just recently turned 23 and has only 152 games of professional baseball under his belt. Martin still has an immense amount of time to develop, and it would be foolish for any organization to suggest he’s a finished project. Maybe the Twins see him as expendable in a larger trade again this summer, but an opposing organization will be hard-pressed to pry him away while suggesting his value has tanked. Where Minnesota finds themselves on the come up from the Berrios package is in Woods-Richardson. He was hardly a throw in, but they clearly evaluated his production, or lack thereof last season correctly. Woods-Richardson missed all of 2020 as did every minor leaguer, and then spent 2021 being half-ready as he spent time competing with Team USA but never finding himself on the mound. His numbers at Double-A were not good, but he was also roughly four years younger than most of the competition. This season Woods Richardson is back with Wichita and the results have been promising. Despite being just 21 he owns a 3.40 ERA and 9.0 K/9 through 53 innings pitched. It’s the most innings he’s logged in a season since 2019, and he’s looked beyond dominant at times. Minnesota has some very intriguing pitching prospects, and Woods Richardson is up there with the best of them. It’s unfortunate that Jose Berrios has struggled, and it’s unfortunate Martin hasn’t raced to the big leagues. All things considered though, Minnesota appears to have parted with a guy they shouldn’t have paid, have a top prospect still with time to get it going, and nailed the additional piece about as well as they could have. This is a swap that could pay dividends for years to come. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are the cream of the crop in the AL Central to this point and if they want to stay that way into the Postseason they’ll need to make some key additions. Despite Major League Baseball’s attempts to force competition through the latest CBA negotiations, there’s still plenty of teams ready for a selloff. Who can Minnesota pillage from them? When looking into what teams have assets, and what assets could be moved, the categorization was left entirely evaluated upon two factors: what players are good, and do they also play on a bad team. At this time, it’s fair to estimate there are something like ten bad teams and these are their players that fit the bill. From a Minnesota perspective, it’s largely unrealistic to consider offensive options anything more than an unnecessary luxury, so we’ll dive into the arms that make sense. Oakland Athletics - Ramon Laureano, Frankie Montas, Paul Blackburn, Lou Trivino, A.J. Puk Yes, where’s Frankie right? Ok, so you know he’s legit. Montas is among the best arms to be considered on the market and he will command an absolute haul. I don’t know that the Twins have what it takes to land him, and I’m also not sure they need him. Blackburn is under team control through 2025 and is just 28 years old. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but the ERA, xERA, and xFIP are all good. He’s finally healthy and looks like a legit rotation arm. Trivino is the prize of this pen and the peripherals suggest he’s a solid talent. The K/9 has never been better and his advanced numbers are more enticing than anything on the surface. More than Montas, 30 years oldars-old even with team control, he may be the best arm moved at the deadline. Puk is a former top prospect and someone that will come with a price tag due to control, but he’s now an aging relief arm with Minnesota ties. Health is the reason he’s in the bullpen, but if you want to add him to a group you can build around this makes sense. Detroit Tigers - Michael Fulmer, Andrew Chafin A.J. Hinch is managing a dumpster fire and that’s not how this was expected to go. Fulmer is a former top prospect and first round pick, but at this stage he’s become expendable. As an impending free agent he’s all but certain to be moved and his 2.00 ERA has him near the top of this relief class. He walks too many and the 3.06 FIP suggests a bit of regression, but he’s got closing experience and has avoided the longball. Fulmer also has the 8th lowest barrel rate in baseball. Chafin is a journeyman having pitched for four teams in nine Major League seasons, but he’s flying under the radar in 2022. He’s on a two-year deal with Detroit, but his 2.10 FIP makes the 3.26 ERA even more exciting. He’s punching out more than 11 per nine innings while being stingy on homers and walks. This is another arm that should be among the most coveted during trade season. Kansas City Royals - Andrew Benintendi, Joel Payamps, Scott Barlow If you want Payamps you’ll probably need to pay up, even with as bad as the Royals are. He’s not arbitration eligible until 2024, and is only 28-years-old. Claimed by Kansas City a season ago, Payamps has posted a 2.42 ERA this season and backed it with a 3.17 FIP. He doesn’t strike out many and gives up too many walks, but he’s kept the ball in the yard and seems like a guy who could be a former waiver candidate parlayed into value. If you’re looking to extract value from the Royals, Barlow is probably the better bet. He’s under team control until 2024, and possesses a bit better upside. The velocity has dropped a bit this season, but there’s strikeout stuff to be had with a WHIP that’s never previously been touched. He may be at his worst, but unleashing his best could make him scary for the future. Miami Marlins - Jon Berti, Joey Wendle, Garrett Cooper, Miguel Rojas, Brian Anderson, Anthony Bass, Tanner Scott, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez Maybe the Marlins won’t sell off. They aren’t good and won’t win the division, but they’re hardly a dumpster fire. That likely takes Alcantara and Lopez off the table. Both of them should be seen as future pieces rather than something that be had at the deadline. In the bullpen though, there’s some intriguing talent. Bass is producing career best numbers and carries just a $3 million team option for next year. His FIP is strong even with his xFIP being a bit more inflated. Cole Sulser would be in the same camp age wise, but being on the injured list with a lat strain should bring pause. Maybe Scott is seen along similar future lines as the starters, and he’s under team control through 2024 so he’ll have an added price tag, but the peripherals are exciting. Scott has produced massive strikeout numbers, even with a bloated amount of walks, and both the FIP and xFIP suggest he could be an asset. Washington Nationals - Josh Bell, Tanner Rainey, Kyle Finnegan, C.J. Edwards Jr. Bell always seemed like a perfect bat for the Nationals to rent. At $10 million he never cost much, and he should net them something nice at the deadline. That’s not where Minnesota is looking though with Alex Kirilloff entrenched at first base. Both Rainey and Finnegan have somewhat competing numbers for Washington. The former has a shiny ERA with lesser peripherals while the latter has a higher ERA but an xFIP that’s wonderful. Neither should be seen as off limits, and both would be a nice upgrade in the pen. Edwards Jr. has seen past success when he was with the Cubs, but he had just 27 1/3 big league innings before this year since 2019, and that was spread between five different teams. He’s not the big strikeout guy he once was, but the walk rate is a career low and he’s given up just 12 hits across 27 innings this season. Pittsburgh Pirates - Jose Quintana, David Bednar It’s basically a yearly tradition that the Pirates will be bad and need to sell at the deadline, and 2022 is no different. If you want a rotation arm you could do worse than a former staff ace. Quintana has a mid-three ERA and a FIP to back it up. He’s more of a finesse starter at this point in his career, but he can still generate strikeouts and has pitched on good teams. Another option for best relief arm to be moved may be Bednar. Pittsburgh doesn’t need to piece him out, but he doesn’t really help a team this bad either. He strikes a ton of guys out, walks very few, and is great at stranding runners. Bednar would immediately be the best pitcher not named Jhoan Duran in the Twins bullpen. Chicago Cubs - Willson Contreras, David Robertson, Chris Martin, Ian Happ, Patrick Wisdom, Rafael Ortega, Scott Efross It’s anyone’s guess as to what the Cubs were doing this offseason. They spent on Marcus Stroman but weren’t going to be good on the dirt, and they parted with some big names in the year prior. At any rate, this club has hitters to deal. Contreras will be coveted, and Happ could probably be had too. I’m not a believer in Wisdom or Ortega but there’s a level of production you could desire. It seems like Robertson is a hired gun quite often and he finds himself there again. He’s 37, but the numbers are great even if peripherals suggest a slight bit of regression. Martin is also up there at 36, and his numbers aren’t quite as good, but you can dream on the 2.51 xFIP and hope the command and strikeouts remain. Effross might be the best name here, but he could also be someone Chicago decides to hang onto. He made his big-league debut last season and looks like a great relief arm. As good as the ERA is, his peripherals suggest he may even be better. Cincinnati Reds - Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo, Brandon Drury, Tommy Pham, Kyle Farmer, Jeff Hoffman You could start with the man that slapped Joc Pederson, but Pham has no fit with the Twins. He’ll probably be moved and that story will then likely resurface again. Instead this is where the best starters come from in Mahle and Castillo. Mahle’s ERA isn’t good, but don’t let that sway anything, he’s been very solid this year. Castillo doesn’t fit the Twins typical mold as a changeup guy, but he’s as good as it gets. Both of them will command a Montas-like haul and will have virtually the same top teams vying for their services. Hoffman is a failed starter that has actually thrived in a full-time bullpen role. He doesn’t have the shine he did as a former top prospect or 9th overall pick, but the strikeout stuff is there. He does still walk too many, but he’s dropped the home run problems that plagued him previously. Arizona Diamondbacks - Christian Walker, Zac Gallen, David Peralta, Merrill Kelly, Joe Mantiply Needing an extra outfielder or a big bat could land you looking at the Diamondbacks, but the arms are also of note. Kelly and Gallen are the starters you want, though it’s Gallen’s combination of stuff and youth that make him the most appealing. These are the types of starting arms I could see as realistic consideration for Minnesota. Mantiply may wind up being my favorite reliever moved, however. He’s 31 and just finally broke through with the Diamondbacks last season. His stuff this year has been amazing, and he’s one of three pitchers at this moment yet to allow a barrel baseball. Colorado Rockies - C.J. Cron, Chad Kuhl, Daniel Bard, Connor Joe, Charlie Blackmon, Jose Iglesias Who knows what the Rockies will do given they don’t have a plan half of the time. Blackmon would seem a good bet to be moved but they also paid for Kris Bryant while allowing Jon Gray and Trevor Story to walk. Kuhl and Bard are pitchers worth prying from them. Kuhl’s xFIP is a bit scary, but his numbers have been good otherwise and he’s a guy who has flown under the radar for quite a bit. Bard has been one of the better late-inning arms this season and bounced back nicely from an ugly 2021. He’s a fantastic story that has reinvigorated his career but will be looking to close this chapter in the next couple of years. Who are some of your favorites from this list? Anyone that got missed and you’re hoping is moved? View full article

The Minnesota Twins are just over one-third of the season through their first with superstar shortstop Carlos Correa. He’s been as advertised putting up numbers near the top of his career bests, and leadership remains the name of his game. He’s all but certain to opt out of his deal with Minnesota, but then what happens for both parties? Over the weekend Joel Sherman wrote a piece for the New York Post taking a look at the free-agent shortstop class that was, and the one that is to come. The tandem of the two may go down to be one of the best back-to-back case studies in free-agent history. It’s not rocket science to suggest that Carlos Correa will opt out with Minnesota, but Sherman reiterates it again saying, “Barring catastrophic injury, Correa will opt out of the final two years at $70.2 million owed by the Twins. That will send him right back into the market, along with Bogaerts, Turner and Dansby Swanson.” That’s always been the expectation and should’ve been from the moment Scott Boras negotiated the contract with those terms to Derek Falvey and Minnesota’s front office. Although the certainty of Correa opting out is there, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s gone. What happened this offseason was a reflection of the Twins being the best, and maybe most creative, bidder. They could certainly pony up the money again in order to keep their superstar. Minnesota has only $108 million on the books next year and that includes Correa’s $35.1 million. Their $73 million tied to 24 is virtually halved after Correa opts out. In short, there’s plenty of room for them to again, Pay. The. Man. This would obviously be the best case outcome. A few weeks ago Twins Daily’s Cody Christie wrote about options Minnesota has at the position in the wake of Royce Lewis being lost due to a second torn ACL. We know that he’ll be out for around 12 months, and the only thing guaranteed is that he won’t be ready for Opening Day. What a second substantial knee injury does to a player is anyone’s guess though. One of the greatest strengths to Lewis’ game is his speed. He came back faster and stronger from his last injury, but there’s no telling if the body will respond the same this time around. Whether he’s a shortstop at all after this rehab will be something all parties must take a wait and see approach on. While Minnesota has to decipher what they will do, and Cody’s options are among those they are weighing, Sherman’s story goes on to paint a cautionary tale when it comes to free agents as a whole. The reality is that money spent with multiple suitors for services often far outweighs actual production. Correa is the lone player from last year’s class performing admirably, but he’s doing so having missed substantial time due to injury and health related issues. As Sherman points out, Correa and Story were both there for Twins fans to clamor over because their markets weren’t what was expected. We’re only talking about this opt-out because Correa’s deal was set up with an ability to kick the can down the road for a year and hope a more lucrative and longer-term situation played out. With the production tied to nearly $1 billion in spending on shortstops last offseason coming nowhere close in terms of equal value, it’s certainly fair to wonder how teams will respond. In summing up his piece Sherman says, “In short, the next class at short again is going to be star-studded. Will the previous free-agent class and the coming class of prospects hurt the coming market?” In that, there’s maybe hope that even with an opt-out, Correa finds himself between opportunity and familiarity. Very few instances will ever find the Minnesota Twins as a top bidder, but given needs by all parties in this scenario, there may be reason to believe an agreeable situation can be struck for all. Carlos Correa is going to opt-out, but then what? View full article

The Minnesota Twins needed to acquire starting pitching this offseason and largely overlooked the free agent market. In making a deal with the Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota landed a guy in Sonny Gray that they hoped would be an ace. So far it’s looked like a perfect fit. How do they keep him moving forward? Pitching this season at 32, Sonny Gray is putting up among the best seasons of his 10-year big league career. Gray is in the final year of a four-year deal but carries a team option for 2023 at $12 million. Given his abilities and relative health, that should be a no-brainer to exercise for Minnesota. Gray has spent a couple of stints on the injured list this season, but he’s still made nine starts to the tune of a 2.53 ERA with a 9.7 K/9. Gray has never had a lower walk rate during his career, and this is as infrequent as he’s ever been allowing the longball. Having pitched recently in parks like Cincinnati and New York, finding a better fit in Minnesota has to have felt wonderful. On the process side of things, it appears Gray is learning to use somewhat of a different repertoire with the Twins. His fastball velocity is down to 92.1 mph, a career low, but he’s upped his slider usage and paired both with a solid curveball. Gray is experiencing a career best chase rate and he’s largely worked around damage. Nine games is far too small of a sample size to suggest Gray is going to continue this output for the rest of the season, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction for a longer term marriage with the Twins if he wants to explore that. Looking at 34 following the team option, Gray’s likelihood for a long-term deal on the open market decreases substantially. Should he choose to lock something up now, a four year deal with Minnesota, tacking on an additional three, would potentially take him through the end of his career. Right now Gray is slated to make $12 million from Minnesota in 2023 if they so choose. Over the course of his current deal Gray has averaged $9.5 million annually. A season ago this Twins front office paid a 38-year-old J.A. Happ $8 million to top out their free agent pitching, and this season Dylan Bundy was given $5 million coming off a 6.06 ERA in 2021. I don’t know if the Twins need to go to $12 million annually on an extension, but that hardly seems egregious either. A 29-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez was paid $15.4 million over five years by the Detroit Tigers this offseason, and a 30-year-old Jon Gray got $14 million over four years from the Texas Rangers. Gray is arguably the better pitcher among that group, but he’s also roughly three years their senior. Both Steven Matz and Yusei Kikuchi got multi-year deals at $11 and $12 million annually respectively, but they too are roughly two years younger than that of Gray. Tyler Anderson is 32 years old and got $8 million from the Dodgers, but only on a one-year pact. There are plenty of guys in that age range that saw similar paydays with no guarantee of longevity. I think for Minnesota, and Gray, the duration may be a worthwhile tradeoff. For Minnesota, I think landing somewhere between Kikuchi and Matz over four years (starting in 2023) would be a worthwhile premise. That’d put Gray at between $11-12 million annually and $44-48 million over the course of his contract. Paying him that sum through age 36 seems to avoid much of the risk as he surpasses that age as well. As a guy who’s not velocity reliant and is very meticulous about his training regimen, there should be an ample amount of belief that he ages gracefully. Maybe the Twins ultimately don’t want to commit to Gray for the long term and they’re happy with him just being around in 2023. If not, these parameters seem like a good place to start. What do you think, are you paying $44-48 million for four more years of Sonny Gray? View full article

For the first time since May the Minnesota Twins are not in sole possession of first place atop the AL Central division. After a series with the Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota found themselves in an otherwise unfamiliar position. The two meet later this week, and the jockeying for position has begun. The Standings: Cleveland 36-29 Minnesota 39-32 Chicago 33-35 Detroit 26-43 Kansas City 25-43 Chicago continues to be a middling team dealing with a manager the fan base seems to want fired. The Guardians did a good job in Minnesota taking two of three from the Twins, but they have a brutal stretch of games to make up as the year goes on. Looking at current run differentials, it’s clear that the two teams pacing the division are in a league of their own. The Stories: Jorge Polanco was put on the injured list for the first time this week due to back issues, and that led to the promotion of Alex Kirilloff. So far the latter has looked like the slugging corner player he was always dreamed of being, and that’s a nice development given the wrist issues he’s dealt with. Byron Buxton has now missed consecutive games due to his knee injury worsening, and while Minnesota has tried to shield him from danger, this doesn’t appear to be going away any time soon. Chicago continues to be hit by the injury bug. Infielder Danny Mendick was placed on the IL alongside outfielder Adam Engel. Mendick is done for the season with a torn ACL. Star closer Liam Hendriks remains out and probably will be until early July. The White Sox face the Twins around that time, which could provide extra motivation for the Australian wanting to play against his former organization. Top-30 prospect Lenyn Sosa got the call to replace Mendick on the active roster and he’s hoping to make the most of an otherwise unexpected opportunity. Sosa was playing well at Double-A. The Guardians played a handful of close games in Minnesota and therefore both clubs burned through their pen. Having pitching limits go down to 13 on the active roster effective Monday, Terry Francona had to shuffle the deck. Yohan Ramirez was recalled taking the place of Anthony Castro. More importantly ,though, star reliever James Karinchak began a rehab assignment at Triple-A Columbus. He hasn’t pitched in a game since October 1, 2021. With Cleveland streaking towards the top, adding that level of arm alongside Emmanuel Clase is a great get for the Guardians. There’s no denying that Javier Baez has been a colossal disaster thus far in Detroit. His average has never been a calling card, but he hasn’t hit for power either. Thankfully he broke out in a big way during a recent series against the Boston Red Sox, going 11-for-27, with seven extra-base hits. Detroit is in the doldrums of the division but they need to see more of that. Top prospect Riley Greene also has made his debut after suffering a foot injury prior to making the Opening Day roster. He’s looked the part and will continue trying to establish himself as a Major League threat in the lineup. Kansas City has brought up the rear in the Central for most of the season, and now they see their leader Salvador Perez injured again. M.J. Melendez was initially afforded opportunity the first time Perez went down, and now a thumb injury has the Royals starting backstop missing games again. They just announced he'll undergo thumb surgery, and that puts him out for quite some time. Looking for bright spots with this team, a series win over the Los Angeles Angels gave the Royals their first winning road trip of the season. They completed a 5-4 run against the Giants, Athletics, and Angels. The Week Ahead: Minnesota gets a weekend series with Colorado prior to a second date with Cleveland. The Twins and Guardians will play five games in four days with a previously scheduled doubleheader taking place on Tuesday. Minnesota will look to return the favor and take a series against their top competition on the road. The White Sox may be looking at one of their easier weeks of the season. Despite dropping the opener against Baltimore, Chicago has three more at home with the Orioles. They then travel to the west coast facing a tumbling Angels team for three before an off day on Friday. Terry Francona’s Guardians return home for a series with the Red Sox before they welcome Minnesota to town. Knowing what’s on tap, they can’t get caught looking ahead and forget how good Boston is right now. A.J. Hinch will look for his Tigers to pick up wins in Arizona against the Diamondbacks before a two game series with the Giants. Detroit has two off days this week. After facing Oakland on the road, Kansas City gets the Athletics at The K to start the weekend. That series is followed by the Rangers coming to town and then an off day. Looking to capitalize on the good run of late, maybe Kansas City can stack a few wins. What are you looking forward to this week? How big is the series between Minnesota and Cleveland? View full article