Ted Schwerzler

The Minnesota Twins were probably hoping to have a top pitching prospect emerge from Triple-A St. Paul to look like a future rotation mainstay this year. It’s hard to say it hasn’t happened, but it wasn’t who you expected. Last season the Twins saw Canadian right-hander Jordan Balazovic show up on multiple top 100 prospect lists. He was a sleeper pick to rocket up those same rankings in 2022, and there’s no denying Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had dreams of him slotting into Rocco Baldelli’s rotation. Balazovic started the season late after a knee injury, and nothing has gone right since. There’s been no indication that he’s still injured, but you certainly have to hope that something has been off. The former 5th round pick in 2016 now owns a 9.06 ERA across 49 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year, and he’s gone from a double-digit strikeout pitcher to one with declining numbers and the ball leaving the park at an alarming rate. No matter how the rest of the string plays out, Minnesota has to figure out a way for Balazovic to get right next season. In his place, you could have assumed Cole Sands, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Matt Canterino or any number of other top prospects in the upper levels may have stepped up. Instead, the arm that won Minnesota’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year a season ago just kept going about his business. Louie Varland was grabbed in the 15th round during the 2019 Major League Baseball draft. Concordia St. Paul is a Division 2 school right down the street from Target Field. Gus Varland, Louie’s brother, was selected a year earlier by the Oakland Athletics. Bryan Lippincott and Jake Schmidt were drafted from legendary coach Mark McKenzie’s program before them. It’s maybe not the most glorious path, but with talent, it won’t ever matter. Varland has been a lunch-pail type of pitcher since the moment he joined the Twins organization. He posted a 2.10 ERA across his first 100 professional innings in Single-A ball, and followed it up with a 3.34 ERA for Double-A Wichita in 105 innings this season. Now knocking on the doorstep playing for the St. Paul Saints, Varland has been nothing short of magical in three turns. With 17 Triple-A innings under his belt, Varland has a 24/3 K/BB while allowing just three runs (two earned) on 11 hits. He’s never been one to give up the long ball, he’ll mow down batters in bunches, and he’s remained stingy with free passes. There isn’t a ton of deception at play here either, and Varland has worked to push his velocity into the triple-digits during offseason workouts. Nearing a 25th birthday it’s fair to understand that Varland doesn’t have the luster brought on by some of the teenage hitting prospects. He is about to capture a second-straight Minor League Pitcher of the Year award though, and it will be because he’s earned it in the most dominating fashion. With Minnesota needing to infuse the starting rotation with homegrown talent, it’s hard to get better than a kid from their own backyard, that’s taken the path less traveled, and beaten the odds. Maybe the organization can right whatever went wrong with Balazovic this season, but they have to be ecstatic with the found money and developmental progress Varland has displayed. The next stop will be on a mound with slightly more fans than Barnes Field. View full article

There wasn't a ton of big offensive performances tonight on the farm for the Minnesota Twins affiliates, but Kala'i Rosario stole the show this afternoon in a Mighty Mussels loss. Cody Laweryson was dominant for the Wichita Wind Surge, and Cole Sands made a rehab appearance for the St. Paul Saints. TRANSACTIONS Pitcher Cole Sands began a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul SAINTS SENTINEL Omaha 5, St. Paul 1 Box Score Louie Varland has been among the best pitchers in the Twins system this season and was on the bump for St. Paul tonight. He worked 4 1/3 innings giving up two runs on four hits. He didn’t allow a walk and struck out three. Matt Wallner has drawn plenty of excitement with his bat this year, but it was a sliding catch in the second inning that saved extra bases. The Storm Chasers got a run in the 4th inning on a sacrifice fly before a 5th inning solo shot ended Varland’s night. St. Paul found themselves halving the lead in the 6th inning when a passed ball allowed him to scamper home. Omaha added one in the 7th inning and two in the 8th inning to pull away, however, and the Saints never had a rally in them. WIND SURGE WISDOM Wichita 5, Springfield 4 Box Score The Wind Surge gave the pill to Cody Laweryson tonight in Springfield. Wichita’s starter went 4 2/3 allowing just a single run on five hits. Laweryson punched out six and didn’t surrender a walk. His ERA is now down to 1.03. Bryan Sammons took over in the 5th inning, and after recording the final out of that frame, he gave up a three-run dinger in the 6th inning. The Cardinals found themselves with breathing room up 4-0. In the 7th inning, it became time for the Wind Surge to answer. Leobaldo Cabrera stepped in and singled home Yunior Severino. Star prospect Austin Martin then roped his third triple of the season to bring home both Anthony Prato and Cabrera. All of a sudden it was a one-run game. The Wind Surge weren’t going to go out quietly, and walks from Prato and Will Holland to start the 9th inning gave them a chance. Edouard Julien then stepped up and ripped a line drive single to score both runners and take the lead. KERNELS NUGGETS Dayton 9, Cedar Rapids 4 Box Score Cedar Rapids turned to Luis Rijo in this one and it was an outing he’d rather forget. Rijo didn’t record an out and gave up five runs on just one hit. The bugaboo was three walks in the inning. Two of the runs against Rijo came on bases-loaded walks. Down 6-0 by the bottom of the 2nd inning, the Kernels got on the board when Dylan Neuse singled in Seth Gray during the 4th inning. In the 6th inning, Cedar Rapids continued to claw away. A balk brought in Gray before Jake Rucker singled to score Jeferson Morales and Willie Joe Garry Jr. Unfortunately for the Kernels, Dayton plated three more runs to pull away, and that was where this one ended. MUSSEL MATTERS Bradenton 8, Fort Myers 7 Box Score Pierson Ohl took the ball this afternoon for the Mighty Mussels and turned in five solid innings while working around seven hits. He did give up three runs, but limited additional damage allowing just one walk and striking out two. Fort Myers scored first, right in the opening salvo, when Kala’i Rosario singled to drive in Tanner Schobel. Unfortunately, that was the only lead they’d have in this one. By the time the Mighty Mussels came up in the top of the 6th inning they trailed 3-1. Rosario once again was ready to do damage and launched a homer, his 11th of the year, to score Ben Ross and tie things up. The Marauders wound up adding in the 6th and 7th innings to jump ahead 8-3. Heading into the 9th inning, Fort Myers saw an uphill battle, but they were ready to work. Luis Baez triples to drive in Keoni Cavaco and Alec Sayre. He then came home during the next at-bat on a passed ball. Down just two, Rosario continued his good day with another single, scoring Ross and bringing the good guys within one. That’s where the rally ended, however, and this was a tough one-run defeat. Fort Myers managed just five hits on the day but definitely made this one interesting. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Cody Laweryson (Wichita) - 4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K Hitter of the Day – Kala’i Rosario (Fort Myers) - 3-5, R, 4 RBI, HR(11) PROSPECT SUMMARY We will again keep tabs on the Twins top prospects. You’ll probably read about them in the team sections, but if they aren’t there, you’ll see how they did here. #2 - Brooks Lee (Cedar Rapids) - 1-4, BB #4 - Austin Martin (Wichita) - 1-5, 2 RBI, 3B, 2 K #9 - Matt Wallner (St. Paul) - 1-4, R, 2B, 2 BB #12 - Louie Varland (St. Paul) - 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K #14 - Edouard Julien (Wichita) - 2-4, 2 RBI, BB, K #17 - Cole Sands (St. Paul) - 2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K #18 - Tanner Schobel (Fort Myers) - 1-4, R, BB, 2 K, 2B #20 - Kala'i Rosario (Fort Myers) - 3-5, R, 4 RBI, HR(11) THURSDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Omaha @ St. Paul (7:07PM CST) - RHP Ronny Henriquez Wichita @ Springfield (6:35PM CST) - RHP Kody Funderburk Cedar Rapids @ Dayton (6:05PM CST) - RHP David Festa Fort Myers @ Bradenton (5:30PM CST) - TBD Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Monday’s games! It sure is exciting to have all four Twins full-season affiliates back and playing. View full article

Last season the Minnesota Twins saw Jose Miranda put up one of the best seasons in prospect history. He terrorized Double-A pitching, earned a promotion to Triple-A, and then kept doing it. The former second round pick may still be flying under the radar despite the season he’s having in 2022. People started to take notice of Jose Miranda last season after he combined to post a .973 OPS between Double and Triple-A. The 127 were played between the ages of 22 and 23, and while he was a former 2nd round pick, Miranda had never received top 100 prospect consideration. Coming into 2022, Miranda made both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline’s top 100 lists. He was snubbed by Baseball Prospectus, and still largely looked at as a fringe contributor to those lists. Miranda didn’t do himself a ton of favors early this year. He posted just a .737 OPS in his first 21 games with the Saints, but then opportunity presented itself. Called up on April 2, Miranda made his big league debut. 19 games in with the Twins, he was optioned back to Triple-A after compiling a .484 OPS and 14/2 K/BB. Once Royce Lewis went down with a season-ending injury though, Miranda never set foot at CHS Field. Back in the lineup for Minnesota on May 30, he has undergone what may be the most impressive rookie season in franchise history. Over a period of 69 games, Miranda has routinely seen time at first base, third base, and designated hitter. He has batted anywhere from the top of the lineup to the bottom, and he’s tallied a ridiculous .838 OPS. He’s carried a .302 average and .346 on-base percentage while swatting 12 home runs and leading the club in runs batted in. Despite a terrible first month, he’s still managed to pull off a 120 OPS+ to date. Maybe it’s because teammate Jhoan Duran has a triple-digit fastball and has carried the Twins bullpen, or maybe it’s because Minnesota remains flyover country, but it seems the performance has continued to go unnoticed nationally. Miranda turned 24 years old earlier this season and is still figuring things out as a Major League ballplayer. He has had to face pitchers multiple times, and work as the league, or more specifically the division, has adjusted to him. It’s fair to note that Miranda is thwarted in overall value by analytical metrics such as fWAR. His total this season is 1.1, That puts him in a tie for 14th and well off the league-leading 3.6 pace set by Baltimore Orioles, Adley Rutschman. Much of this is derived from his defensive acumen. At first base, it’s been easy to see Miranda is stretched. He’s been worth -3 defensive runs saved in just over 380 innings, and only worth one defensive run saved in 216 innings at the hot corner. The Statcast metric, outs above average, doesn’t like him either. Throw in the double-digit starts at designated hitter and you now have a clearer picture. None of this is to downplay what has taken place. Miranda spent the first month of the season playing at Triple-A. He spent the next month being unproductive, and frankly, terrible. From there, he’s been among the better players in the Major Leagues, rookie or otherwise. Duran has helped to steal some of the spotlight, but Minnesota hasn’t experienced this level of play from a hitter in their debut season for a long time. If you’re watching Twins games on a daily basis and enjoying Miranda’s heroics, then you’ve appreciated the greater body of work. If you’re watching him play defense and catching an at-bat at a time, you’ve probably missed it. I don’t think it’s sugarcoating it though, to call this one of the best rookie seasons Twins fans have ever seen. View full article

We’re now roughly one month out from the 2022 Major League Baseball trade deadline. The Minnesota Twins front office had one of the most impactful series of additions in franchise history, and it certainly appears they got it right. Derek Falvey knew that a team employing Carlos Correa and leading the American League Central division couldn’t sit idle when given an opportunity to improve. Sure, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, and Kyle Garlick were all missing from the lineup. Byron Buxton was playing as a member of the walking wounded, and Ryan Jeffers may not return. Still though, it was the pitching staff, and has always been the pitching staff, that needed the most help. Rather than allowing Rocco Baldelli to continue rolling the dice on a near-nightly basis, he needed to supplement the relief corps. Jhoan Duran couldn’t continue to shoulder such a massive load as a rookie, and despite the emergence of Griffin Jax, inexperience was going to reign supreme. Sonny Gray has established himself as the ace of the staff, and while Joe Ryan looks the part, they needed help with a group also including Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. Coming to Minnesota as an All-Star, Jorge Lopez has been as advertised. Yes, he scuffled early, but he quickly righted that ship. With a neat entrance to the Target Field mound, the former Baltimore Orioles closer owns a 2.45 ERA across 11 innings and 11 appearances. He’s given up more hits, less strikeouts, and a few more walks, but he’s kept the ball in the yard. Lopez will continue to settle in as time goes on, and he pairs nicely at the back end of the unit. Asking Michael Fulmer to walk across the diamond from the visiting Detroit Tigers clubhouse was probably as good as it gets for the veteran. No longer playing for nothing, he’s now in a divisional race and pitching innings that actually matter. In 11 appearances for the Twins, Fulmer owns a 3.86 ERA with an 13/3 K/BB. He’s given up twice as many dingers (2) in 11 2/3 innings with Minnesota than he did in 39 1/3 with Detroit, so you can imagine he’ll further put the clamps down on his output. Arguably the best of the bunch, Tyler Mahle is Minnesota’s second big starter from the Cincinnati Reds. Rejoining former teammate Sonny Gray, Mahle has tallied a 2.51 ERA in three starts. Yes he’s now shelved with a shoulder issue, similar to what he experienced earlier this summer, but the expectation is he’ll be back when immediately able and continue to be a driving force towards a Postseason berth. Mahle’s numbers are a bit skewed after a lackluster debut against the Toronto Blue Jays, but Minnesota won the game and he’s battled nicely. There’s no denying it was a blow to Minnesota when pitching coach Wes Johnson abruptly left earlier this season. The group as a whole was reeling, but they’ve answered the call since being infused with new veteran talent. By fWAR, the Twins have had the 9th best pitching staff in Major League Baseball since the trade deadline. Their starters check in 18th while the relievers are 6th. Given the state of the bullpen a month ago, that’s a massive shift. Having to use spot arms like Aaron Sanchez along the way, starting talents such as Josh Winder and Bailey Ober returning could only help to push this envelope further. Give it to Falvey and Thad Levine. The front office saw what this team needed and did everything they could to give them the pieces. From that point onwards, it became entirely on the players in the clubhouse to answer the call. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are one of the most forward thinking front offices in baseball. They employ a bevy of intelligent people that use ample amounts of information in order to put the best team on the field. Now coming to the final month, they have two players that couldn’t be from more opposite schools of thought. This offseason Derek Falvey made former Los Angeles Angels pitcher Dylan Bundy his first pitching acquisition when he was signed to a one-year deal worth $6 million. An $11 million team option was tied to 2023, and the hope for the Twins was that they could recapture the 3.29 ERA (and 2.95 FIP) that had Bundy finish 9th in the American League Cy Young voting during the 2020 season. That would be a difficult task considering how bad he was last season for Los Angeles. Bundy owned a 6.06 ERA along with a 5.51 FIP. He was allowing two homers every nine innings, and he pitched in just 90 2/3 innings. The velocity actually ticked up to 90.8 mph last year, but the whiff rate dropped below 10% for the first time in his career. Still, Minnesota’s plan was a value play. Bundy, alongside the eventual signing of Chris Archer, represented an opportunity to squeeze something out of nothing at the back end of the pen. To date, Bundy has thrown slower, struck out fewer batters, and his Statcast page makes Minnesota look warm in January. The notable reality here is what’s happened. Sure, Bundy doesn’t put the ball by anyone, and his start is hardly worth making note of. He does generate a strong chase rate and limits walks, but based on expected outcomes, regression should hit him hard. Yet, it hasn’t. He owns a FIP in line with his ERA, and an expected ERA of 3.98. No matter how you cut it, the stuff doesn’t match the results, but the job has gotten done. I wouldn’t guess Minnesota is itching to hand out the $11 million in 2023, but they’ve got to be happy with the surplus value this season. On the flip side, there’s Emilio Pagan. Acquired from the San Diego Padres for Taylor Rogers just before Opening Day, Pagan was picked as a closer type with hopes of regaining his 2019 stuff with Tampa Bay. It began with a poor first outing against the Seattle Mariners, and the reliever has never recovered. Pagan is under team control through 2023, certainly part of the allure in acquiring him. He can be tendered a deal through arbitration and won’t break Minnesota’s bank. The problem is that the results have culminated to the tune of 5.04 ERA, 2.0 HR/9, six losses, and seven blown saves. In short, he’s largely been the difference between winning or losing the American League Central division. The reason Pagan continues to be given a leash is that everything except the results says he should be good. Velocity is up, his xFIP is just 3.30, he owns nearly a 36% chase rate and gets whiffs 14% of the time. In an age where velocity is king and misses matter, Pagan checks those boxes. His Statcast page shows a nearly inverse result of Bundy’s. Pagan has everything going for him until wood meets leather, and then it’s an absolute nightmare. It’s been a very interesting situation for the Twins to manage this year. Rocco Baldelli has constantly been hamstrung with a bullpen including an unusable pitcher in Pagan. He’s been kept around on the hopes that tweaks will lead to expected or desired results becoming reality. Bundy isn’t the piece you build around, but he’s not the reason you lose now. Pagan is the type you hope to have become an asset, but you’ll take your lumps along the way. This season Minnesota may have tied themselves to the wrong horse for long enough that it bites them. An analytical approach is how you seek to gain value and create sustainability, but there’s more than enough room for hiccups along the way. For a team threading the needle so tightly, we’ll have to see whether whatever happens in 2023 was worth whatever took place in 2022. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are all but expecting Carlos Correa to opt out, and that should be seen as a near certainty, but is the big payday really there? With another loaded free agent class, the answer isn’t as certain. An immediate note on Carlos Correa opting out should be that it does not mean his time with the Minnesota Twins is done. He’s going to opt out because it makes sense for him to do so from a longevity standpoint. Soon-to-be 28-years-old, Correa would be better off landing a long-term deal as opposed to playing next season at $35.1 million. If he kept this current contract, he’d hit the market again at 30-years-old, making the long-term expectation that much more contentious. This offseason Correa had Scott Boras angle for $35.1 million. That extra $100,000 landed Correa the highest paying deal for a Major League infielder by average annual value. It came in ahead of another Boras client in Anthony Rendon. To a certain extent, Correa has already earned a record deal. Now, what does he want to do from here? Looking at things as they stand currently, Correa would be no better than the 4th best option in terms of 2022 fWAR among 2023 free agents. Dansby Swanson (5.2) leads the position, with Trea Turner (4.7) just behind him and Xander Bogaerts (4.2) coming in third. Correa’s 2.2 fWAR checks in 13th among qualified shortstops. Age wise, Turner is a bit older at 29 while Swanson is less than a year separated from Minnesota’s shortstop. Bogaerts paces the group at nearly 30-years-old, which could provide an interesting case study for Correa should he surprisingly choose to play out the string on his deal now. Making just $20 million through 2024, Bogaerts is all but certain to opt out of his contract with the Boston Red Sox, and it seems there’s been little dialogue regarding an extension. I think you can make the case that Turner is a superior player to Correa, while Swanson’s emergence has been more recent. Bogaerts is probably ahead of the Puerto Rican as well, but again, has a bit of age constraints going against him. Then there’s the understanding that the market would need to shift substantially. Last year Correa was looking for that big $300 million deal. He never found it, and instead signed with the Twins. Sure, the Los Angeles Dodgers could be in play needing to replace Turner, but that’d be pretty awkward given the reality that he’s the fanbase's favorite player to boo. It’s tough to see the New York Yankees getting in after opting for Isiah Kiner-Falefa instead, and having Anthony Volpe as their top prospect near ready to go. With that, you’ve immediately taken out two of the top spenders. Oh, and Steve Cohen already has Francisco Lindor with the New York Mets. So, where does that leave Correa? If last winter was a cold shoulder, maybe this one is even moreso. There’s no denying he’s an elite talent, and he’s going to get paid, but maybe not to the extent he hopes. A five or six year deal may happen, but it will come at a substantially lesser average annual value. A six-year deal at $200 million isn’t much of a drop, still $33.3 million. I don’t know that $150 million gets it done, but over five years that’s still $30 million per season. The decision probably lands on what level of future security is desired, and how much the average annual value matters. Anything close to either of those scenarios would be a record spend for Minnesota, but given the current financial obligations, it’s a pool they could certainly play in. Not having to fight against the biggest markets, Correa opting-out could ultimately result in him choosing to return to a place he’s stated feeling comfortable. Noted as a homebody, maybe weight is placed on not moving again, and this is certainly a fanbase that would embrace him for the long term. Having a left side of the infield that includes Royce Lewis and Correa for something like the next handful of years would be quite the stabilizing force for a team looking to take another step forward. View full article

The Minnesota Twins have fallen to second place in the American League Central division, and while they needed an influx of pitching help at the deadline, the next wave of reinforcements may not come soon enough. With a 9-8 record and just 10 games left in August, the September stretch becomes vital, but who’s there to help? As I wrote last week, the expectation should be that the division is sorted out in the final month of the season. Minnesota will play the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians a combined 17 times in September. Separated by anything less than four games when the calendar turns should represent striking distance. The problem is what will have changed for available options at that point? Right now Rocco Baldelli is forced to roll Jake Cave out on a regular basis. Gary Sanchez has been nothing behind the plate basically all season. The bullpen still has warts, and time is ticking. Over the weekend The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman provided a status update on many of Minnesota’s key pieces. Knowing how awful the lineup has been for weeks suggests that Trevor Larnach and Kyle Garlick could be the most impactful additions. It doesn’t sound like Ryan Jeffers will be back until the second half of September, but the pitching staff should get a few jolts before then. Maybe Josh Winder, Bailey Ober, and Randy Dobnak can provide value in the short term. Hopefully, Kenta Maeda is ready to go soon. No matter what though, all of the timelines still represent a substantial amount of gray area. There’s no denying that the Twins need to put their best foot forward if they’re going to make the postseason. There’s no reason why this team, even as it’s currently constructed, isn’t making up ground on Cleveland. Sure, the White Sox are without Tim Anderson, and have missed Luis Robert at times. The Guardians have shuffled pieces around Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez, but both of those clubs are working towards the same goal as Minnesota. It’s understandable to look at what could be coming back to the Twins clubhouse and be excited. Having that much impactful talent on the shelf is hardly a positive reality. Until we start seeing rehab assignments and activations though, it’s all just a theoretical hope that the next addition is the one that turns the tide. I don’t think you can make a case for many of the Twins pending activations to suddenly trend toward the season-ending type, but every day ripped off in September without additions will be an opportunity missed. As healing and rehab procedures trend toward their completion, Minnesota must be aggressive with the goal of maximizing the impact felt by each player. Taking a look at the Twins record on a rolling monthly basis to this point it’s clear this is a ship that’s been treading water. If they want to be the 18-12 team they were in May to close this out, they’ll have to hope there are no more guys being hidden throughout the roster biding time until they can be swapped out. View full article

While only the short season leagues play on Monday’s, the Dominican Summer League club had the day off so it was all Florida Complex League action. Get caught up on how the action went. COMPLEX CHRONICLES FCL Orioles 2, FCL Twins 1 Box Score The Twins turned to Develson Aria today and got three strong innings. He allowed just a single hit while striking out a batter and walking another. Through four innings, the Orioles had just one hit. It wasn’t just the Orioles finding themselves stifled in this one though. It wasn’t until Rafael Cruz crushed his 2nd home run of the season until the Twins were on the board. Despite tallying a total of six hits, that was their only run of the game. The Orioles were able to rally four two runs against Isiah Rivera in the bottom of the 9th inning and walked it off against the Twins. DOMINICAN DAILIES Scheduled Day Off DRAFT PICK UPDATES A handful of the top picks have been promoted to Low-A Fort Myers or High-A Cedar Rapids. Most of the picks have also made their professional debut at one level or another. Infielder Jorel Ortega was 1-for-1 with the Mighty Mussels, but then removed from the game after a slide and has been placed on the 60-day injured list with a left wrist sprain. Ben Ross has played five games with Fort Myers and owns a 1.076 OPS with two homers. Nate Baez is 3-for-11 to start his Low-A career. Promoted to Cedar Rapids last week, Brooks Lee has now played in nine games. He's 12-for-36 with two homers. Every bit the polished prospect he was originally billed, Cedar Rapids fans should have a blast seeing Twins Daily's second-best prospect. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Develson Aria (FCL Twins) - 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K Hitter of the Day – Rafael Cruz (FCL Twins) - 3-4, R, 2B, HR(2) TUESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Iowa (6:38PM CST) - TBD Wichita @ Frisco (7:05PM CST) - RHP Brent Headrick Cedar Rapids @ Lake County (5:35PM CST) - TBD Lakeland @ Fort Myers (6:00PM CST) - TBD Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Monday’s games! It sure is exciting to have all four Twins full-season affiliates and the two Complex Season affiliates back and playing. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are staring up at the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Central division. Despite leading most of the year, this club is now having to claw back. Following the trade deadline, this team has done less with more. Leading up to the August 2nd trade deadline, it became apparent that Thad Levine and Derek Falvey needed to add pitching. They had problems in the rotation and they had problems in the bullpen. Sure, Ryan Jeffers was on the injured list and a backup catcher became necessary. You could also make the case that an additional outfielder would have made sense after losing Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, and Kyle Garlick. The reality though, is that this front office did everything and more to position Rocco Baldelli’s club towards the Postseason. We’ve seen in recent seasons where deals at the deadline have a way of spreading discouragement throughout the clubhouse. When Minnesota was both buyers and sellers a few years ago, it seemed that an initial displeasure was then followed by a desire to prove resiliency. In 2022 however, there’s no room for discouragement. Everything the front office did was met with elation by those on the field. The Twins social media channels have shown the embrace of new talent, and the excitement brought on by a belief that the team was good enough to invest in. None of that seems to have mattered on the field however. Although the pitching has turned around, thanks in large part to the additions made at the deadline, a collective of each player in the lineup continues to fail. Through three games against a very beatable Texas Rangers team, Minnesota has gone 1-for-19 with runners in scoring position. They’ve left a whopping 20 runners on base, and they’ve largely looked uninterested at the plate. There’s plenty to be said about a manager with more of an engaging style such as Baldelli. He’s a far cry from the Hall of Famer that was Paul Molitor, and recently celebrated Ron Gardenhire may represent something in between. I don’t know that Minnesota needs a drill sergeant in the dugout, but for all we’ve heard about chemistry and makeup, it’s time for the leaders to lead. Carlos Correa was signed to the largest deal for a Major League infielder by average annual value this offseason. Byron Buxton was inked to the extension firmly entrenching his status as the driver of this team. Sonny Gray has previously played for winning organizations while working through his veteran career. Necessary to see the production on field from that group, one of them has to provide the voice that turns this thing around. It’s not Minnesota’s fault for playing in baseball’s second worst division. It is their fault for failing to capitalize on that opportunity. There’s no excuse for the lifeless performances that we’ve grown accustomed to at this point in the season. A lineup that should be expected to do damage routinely looks inept, and the buy in to get the job done has to be a feeling shared across the board. To date the Twins have been held scoreless in 10% of their 117 games. With 45 to go, it’s put up or shut up time, and the only place this team will be searching for answers if left out in October is the bathroom mirror. View full article

The Minnesota Twins have had a decent season after coming off one that included a ton of losing. While Carlos Correa was the big splash this winter, Rocco Baldelli’s club has seen youth step up in a few key areas. As the year trends towards a close, there’s just three true options for a Rookie of the Year award. On Opening Day, Minnesota rostered a rookie starter in Joe Ryan and allowed him to take the ball. Surprisingly, the bullpen also included rookie prospect Jhoan Duran, who wasn’t exactly expected to crack camp with the big league club. Then there’s Jose Miranda, who spent a month in St. Paul before getting to the majors and making it stick. Each has a case, but some are better than others. Joe Ryan Baldelli turned to Ryan as his Opening Day starter following just a five-start debut in 2021. Ryan looked the part of a very good pitcher, but Sonny Gray had been acquired to be the ace of this staff. Giving the nod to an internal option made sense, however, and Ryan has made the most of it. Through 19 starts this season, Ryan owns a 3.92 ERA across 101 innings. Despite not throwing with much velocity, Ryan is just under striking out a batter per inning. He’s been bit by the home run allowing 1.4 per nine innings, but his walk rate remains manageable at 2.5 BB/9. Ryan has basically been a league-average pitcher this season. His 98 ERA+ tells a fair story, and while the numbers are great against poor competition, they’re relatively troubling against teams Minnesota would find in October. He’s settled in as a true rotation piece, but it’s fair to call him more of a number three than anything else. Jhoan Duran Where would this Minnesota bullpen be without the emergence of their triple-digit hurler. Across 43 appearances Duran owns a dazzling 2.09 ERA. He has a strong 11.7 K/9 and limits walks allowing just a 2.1 BB/9. As mentioned, it wasn’t originally expected Duran would make the Opening Day roster. He worked as a starter at Triple-A in 2021, and while his arm didn’t hold up for long stretches at a time, that was still a path to explore. Instead he’s become the Twins best high-leverage reliever, and may be among the best in the role across all of baseball. Duran doesn’t need to be a traditional closer. Sure, he’s got six saves this season, but his 3.10 win probability added is reflective of a guy that gets things done whenever the team needs him, at the most dire moments. Relievers don’t get a ton of love when it comes to awards on a national stage, but Duran should’ve been an All-Star and deserves Rookie of the Year votes. Jose Miranda After spending April at Triple-A, Jose Miranda made his Major League debut on May 2nd. By May 26 he had a .484 OPS and was optioned back to St. Paul following Royce Lewis’ return to health. When it was determined the top prospect would need season ending surgery, Miranda’s trip across town was turned back and he’s been amazing since. In 58 games since May 30, Miranda owns an .877 OPS while batting .313 and contributing 20 extra-base hits. He’s launched 10 homers and has been a catalyst in many key spots. Miranda has shown a knack to produce with runners in scoring position, and he’s consistently been given opportunities to bat in the top four or five lineup spots. There are probably other favorites such as Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. when it comes to the American League Rookie of the Year award, but I’m not sure Miranda should be considered much behind them. The reality for Minnesota is that they have two guys who have kept their team afloat, and a third who’s been a constant in the rotation despite massive uncertainty. Who do you feel has been the most valuable for the Twins this year? Can any of these three actually contend for the award across the entirety of the American League? View full article

This offseason the Minnesota Twins front office went for two separate bargain signings in the starting rotation. Targeting both Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, the organization clearly was trying to squeeze more from both of them. Now nearing the end of the season, how has it worked out? Coming out of the lockout and going into Spring Training, it was always apparent that Minnesota needed to add frontline starting pitching. Jose Berrios was traded near the peak of his value, and finding an heir to the top of the rotation was a must. With Kenta Maeda set to be shelved for much of 2022, alternative options had to be explored. Ultimately Sonny Gray was the ace acquired for Minnesota’s starting rotation, but value plays were made with Bundy and Archer. Both had seen previous success, but neither seemed to be much more than an opportunity to capture lightning in a bottle. Where are we at now? Dylan Bundy After posting a 6.06 ERA with the Los Angeles Angels last season, Minnesota was certainly hoping to sign the Bundy that tallied a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts during the 2020 season. Now owning a 4.76 ERA with a 4.28 FIP, Bundy hasn’t been the best version of himself, but he also has avoided consistently being the worst starter in baseball that he has flashed at times. Bundy’s strikeout numbers have dropped substantially this season, all the way down to a 6.9 K/9, but he’s given up less walks and homers than he ever before has. His 3.86 xERA also suggests that he’s been better than the counting stats may indicate. Some credit is owed to Bundy reinventing himself while losing velocity. His 89 mph fastball is lower than it’s ever been, but he’s generated a career best chase rate and still gets whiffs 10% of the time. Having been worth 1.0 fWAR in 2022, Fangraphs puts Bundy’s value at $8.2 million. Signed for $5 million this season, Bundy won’t have his $11 million option for 2023 picked up, but he’s given the Twins exactly what they bargained for in 2022. Chris Archer Signed to a $3.5 million deal for 2022, Minnesota took a last minute look at Archer despite him having pitched under 20 innings since 2019. Archer has tried to battle back from injury, most notably undergoing surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Shoulder issues are typically more altering to pitcher trajectories than arm issues, and that’s been part of what has held Archer back. His 4.15 ERA across 20 starts is backed by a 4.42 FIP. He’s nowhere near the pitcher he once was, striking out just 7.5 per nine and walking a career worst 4.5 per nine. Allowed to go just two times through the lineup each start, Archer has basically been a tightrope walker. Working around traffic and trying not to give in too greatly, he’s consistently put the Twins bullpen in a situation where they’ll need to work overtime. Archer’s velocity is actually up a bit from where it was last season but he’s not getting whiffs or chases on his stuff. Needing to nibble on the edges, there’s consistently been situations where the walks pile up in bunches. At 0.6 fWAR though, Fangraphs suggests Minnesota has gotten what they paid for as he’s generated $4.7 million of value. Like Bundy, Archer won’t have his 2023 option picked up either, but both have been about as expected. There’s been more to like with the former first round pick, but neither are something that will be missed when they wind up elsewhere. In a vacuum, both arms could have made sense in Minnesota, but pairing either with a bad bullpen leaves opportunity for exposure on a weekly basis. It’s hard to go the route of bargain bin shopping in the rotation when you do the same thing in relief. View full article

The Minnesota Twins traded for Emilio Pagan right before Opening Day of the 2022 Major League Baseball season. Taylor Rogers was sent to the Padres, and while he has now been flipped to the Milwaukee Brewers, Pagan continues to get opportunities without merit. Emilio Pagan was very good for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019. He hasn’t been since. In two seasons with the Padres, Pagan posted a 4.75 ERA alongside a 5.09 FIP. He was striking out more than a batter per inning, but he was allowing more homers than a batting practice soft-tosser. Unfortunately, nothing has changed with the Minnesota Twins. After another blown save, and loss, against the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend, Pagan owns a career worst 5.10 ERA. It’s backed by a 4.63 FIP and while he’s got a solid 12.8 K/9, he is again allowing 2.1 HR/9 and is issuing a career worst 3.8 BB/9. In short, every time he comes out, disaster looms. Rocco Baldelli has looked to pick his spots with Pagan. While he was originally penciled in as the Twins closer, Pagan quickly worked himself down the pecking order in one of baseball’s worst bullpens. With an overhaul needed at the trade deadline, both Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer were brought into the fold. Pagan has since been relegated to low-leverage spots, while occasionally finding himself with an opportunity to ruin a game. On the season he is responsible for six losses and seven blown saves. Having contributed just nine saves on the season, he’s ultimately contributed far more negative value than anything else. He has been worth -0.3 fWAR, and his -0.94 win probability added (WPA) is nearly a career low. For a Twins team that’s threading the needle in an American League Central division begging for a winner, one pitcher being this bad ultimately has held them back. Part of the allure in acquiring Pagan was that he presented Minnesota with future opportunity. He’s under team control for another year, and is just 31-years-old. It’s worth questioning if he should be here now though, rather than even considering a arbitration-induced contract for 2023. Ultimately the Twins continue to give Pagan chances because he has stuff that should play. His 95.6 mph fastball has never been more powerful, and his 14.5% whiff rate is near a career high. He also induces chases at over 34% this season, a career high. That combination should result in something far more positive than it has. The issue is that Pagan has not been able to show ability despite the stuff. Both Pagan’s xFIP and xERA are far better than the results have bore out thus far, but the caveat to expected stats is that they don’t matter until they’re actualized. Pagan has cost the Twins more than a handful of games at this point, and it’s hard to attribute any where he has actually been the reason they won. This organization can continue to keep hoping what may play out will happen, or they can cut the losses and try to salvage things where they stand now. Maybe the next organization claiming Pagan figures out the trick that San Diego and Minnesota missed on, or maybe Pagan just will never be anything close to what his abilities suggest are possible. Either way, the longer the Twins wait to find out, the more dire their season gets. View full article

With the Florida Complex League action being rained out today, the only affiliate in action was the Minnesota Twins Dominican Summer League team. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s brother got in on the action, and there were more notable performances from the plate than the mound. COMPLEX CHRONICLES Postponed (Rain) The Twins Florida Complex League team was set to square off against the Braves but inclement weather washed away this contest. It will be made up tomorrow. Randy Dobnak was scheduled to make a rehab appearance. Maybe it happens tomorrow. DOMINICAN DAILIES DSL Nationals 12, DSL Twins 8 Box Score Oscar Paredes got the start for the DSL Twins today and worked three innings while allowing two runs on four hits. He walked just one while striking out two. The Twins jumped out to the early lead when an Anderson Nova single drove in Denyerbe Gervis in the 1st inning. The lead was then doubled up in the 2nd inning after Isaac Pena broke for the plate and successfully stole home. After the lead was wiped away in the bottom half, the Twins answered with Jose Rodriguez putting a ball in play to score Gervis from third base. Up 3-2, the Twins then doubled their lead again in the 4th inning. Pena ripped his third triple of the season, then scored on a throwing error. Bryan Acuna singled to plate Gervis, and Nova recorded another RBI to bring home Acuna. Giving back three runs, Nova gave the Twins more breathing room with a single that scored both Acuna and Rodriguez in the 6th inning. Back up 8-5, the hope was that they had this one in hand. Unfortunately, the Nationals fought back with a vengeance and answered with seven unanswered to complete the comeback. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Oscar Paredes (DSL Twins) - 3.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K Hitter of the Day – Anderson Nova (DSL Twins) - 3-5, 3 RBI, 2 K DRAFT PICK UPDATE Brooks Lee (Promoted to Cedar Rapids) 4 G, 6-16, 2 R, 3 BB, 3 K Expect at least one 2022 draft pick to be promoted to Cedar Rapids on Tuesday. TUESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Scranton/WB @ St. Paul (7:07PM CST) - RHP Dereck Rodriguez Tulsa @ Wichita (7:05PM CST) - TBD Wisconsin @ Cedar Rapids (6:35PM CST) - TBD Fort Myers @ Palm Beach (5:30PM CST) - RHP Jordan Carr Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Monday’s games! It sure is exciting to have all four Twins full-season affiliates and the two Complex Season affiliates back and playing. View full article