Eris

“Even with a poor 2020 season, Báez has an extremely favorable outlook. He isn’t as good as Lindor but also costs nearly $10 million less. His price in a trade would likely require one of the Twins’ top five prospects or a slew in the 6-15 range.” https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/457/ Baseball trade values has Baez median value at 11.7. Therefore a package of Cavaco (7.6) and Enlow (4.1) would be about right.

From Fangraphs, Sano is 9th worst all time with 37% K%. His stats are comparable to the Rangers Joey Gallo. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1871-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=10,d&page=1_30

If no team would be willing to take on Donaldson’s contract and his unreliability is such that the Twins need to prioritize adding depth behind him doesn’t that mean he has negative value. An asset is not supposed to be a liability. The contract does matter.

Wouldn’t he need to clear waivers to become a free agent?

The Atlantic Braves are public company and are required to report there financials. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/braves-latest-financial-results-revenue-falls-48-in-third-quarter/5GWLRGUQK5EWBOJZI5HRAWX2AA/%3foutputType=amp

My memory is that Blankenhorn started his career in the Twins minors at 3B. He was then moved to 2B and then in 2019 seeing some time in the outfield as well. Being that he was moved off 3B at a time the Twins lacked any depth at that position indicates the Twins management feels he would not be a long term solution at 3B. Maybe someone on this thread who knows more about Blankenhorn's initial experience at 3B can add to this. If Blankenhorn can hit in the majors, they will find playing time for him. Corey Koskie was a very below average defensive third baseman when he first came up, but worked his way to be an above average fielder.

According to MLB prospect rankings https://www.mlb.com/prospects (mid-season 2020). Dane Dunning is the 98th ranks prospect. As a comparison Jordan Balazovic is ranked 81st and Trevor Larnach is ranked 77th. So an approximate comparison would be Balazovic or Larnach headlining an equivalent trade for the Twins.

By starting the discussion with 2011, this article does not do justice to the Terry Ryan's Twins first round draft ineptitude but does avoid reminding us of many additional years of draft futility. The first round failures Matthew Moses 2003 Steven Waldrop 2004 Matthew Fox 2004 Supplemental Jay Rainville 2004 Supplemental Henry Sanchez 2005 Chris Parmelee 2006 Carlos Gutiérrez 2008 Shooter Hunt 2008 Supplemental Matthew Bashore 2009 Alex Wimmers 2010 Successes or partial successes in this time frame include Aaron Heilman 2000 (drafted but did not sign) Joe Mauer 2001 Denard Span 2002 Trevor Plouffe 2004 Glen Perkins 2004 Matt Garza 2005 Ben Revere 2007 Aaron Hicks 2008 Kyle Gibson 2009 From 2000 - 2016, about 48% of the Twins first round picks had some type of decent career in the majors. (I put Luke Bard in the disappointment category). There were in this time frame multiyear stretches of futility. I am not sure if this number is historically bad compared to other teams. Revisionist history is not the proper way to evaluate draft selections. In hindsight everyone knows that Mike Trout and Mookie Betts should have been selected. However, most other teams also passed on these talents. A proper way to judge the draft would be compare the Twins long term draft results to other teams based some pre-defined objective criteria. My choices for this criteria would include: Did they make it to the majors, 3 highest years of WAR, number of years played and total war. I would also be interested in median as well as mean results. My instincts are aligned with the theme of the article in that the Terry Ryan was doing a poor job in selecting the Twins first round pick(s) each year. However, I have not seen statistical data comparing his success/failures to those of other MLB teams. Most of the current starting team was signed by Ryan. And there are still promising players in the minors that were drafted under Terry Ryan (such as Jordan Balazovic and Ben Rortvedt) Presently, it looks like Thad Levine’s is running at about at least a 60 - 80% success rate. Keoni Cavaco is likely to be a disappointment (although he is still young) and it is too early to determine the outcome of Aaron Sabato’s selection. However in order to achieve a higher success rate, they have sacrificed defensive value by choosing mostly bat first college players. There are some long term limitations of this strategy. Some of Levine’s non-first round picks such as Ryan Jeffers are likely to have decent MLB careers. Levine also seems to be doing better in getting value in trades.

Analytics is about long term outcomes with large sample sizes. How did the infield shift work for the Twins vs Astros? The shift doesn’t stop a run from scoring if the hitter is willing an able to execute on an opposite field single. Nick Anderson may have been the Rays best reliever over the entire season (and perhaps analytically he still is) but he had allowed at least one run in 6 straight postseason appearances. This is why teams have managers. Sometimes human judgement and instinct are needed.

From the NY Post today https://nypost.com/2020/09/18/yankees-making-history-with-this-show-of-home-run-power/

Houston is currently the 2nd seed in the AL West. That is unlikely to change and they don't play the Yankees anymore in this regular season. There is nothing the Astros can do to effect Yankees playoffs. I am rooting for either Baltimore or Detroit to claim the final AL Wild Card.

I had forgotten about Chilli Davis’ game 3 home run. When I am feeling down and need cheering up I pull up Puckett’s game 6 home run. Therefore I would have that as number 1. It should noted that before game 6, facing elimination, Kirby asked teammates to “jump on his back” as he would carry the load. I am not sure correct quote. What I remember is “hop on the bus, I will carry the load.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kirby-puckett-world-series-minnesota-twins-atlanta-braves-25-years-ago-102616%3famp=true On Gene Larkin’s heroics. Larkin battled a knee injury most of the season and by the WS could barely run and therefore was limited to mostly pinch hitting duties for the WS. My memory is foggy but he may have actually reinjuried the knee in one of the early rounds of the playoffs. Not quite Kurt Gibson heroics but very close.

Here is a link to WAR calculations. Catcher has the greatest positional increase in WAR at +9 and DH the largest decrease at -15 per 1350 innings. This is from baseball reference. FanGraphs is probably slightly different (I haven’t looked). https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml Current values (per 1350 (150*9) innings played) are: C: +9 runs SS: +7 runs 2B: +3 runs CF: +2.5 runs 3B: +2 runs RF: -7 runs LF: -7 runs 1B: -9.5 runs DH: -15 runs P: see Pitcher Positional Adjustment

Seth, thank you for these informative write ups. I have read several articles over the past two or three weeks commenting on Lewis’ swing. Here’s one from Fangraphs. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-twins-prospect-royce-lewis-has-a-cacophonous-swing-and-a-sky-high-ceiling/ I think the general conclusion is that his swing needs to be modified for the big leagues. Remembering the two lost years modifying Buxton’s swing, I am curious as to why the Twins are not taking a more proactive approach and modifying his swing while he is in the minors.

Running into a wall going more than 20 mph in a game with the Twins having a sizeable lead is not an accident. It shows poor judgement and lack of situational awareness.

I was a little sloppy, I should have quoted the source. It is from a Jay Jaffe's write-up on Fangraphs (about 1/3 of the way down the article). Jay wrote the article before the details of the Betts trade were known. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-price-would-offer-dodgers-more-name-recognition-than-certainty/ I have done an analysis comparing our starters from last year to Maeda. On the Twins rotation, based on 2019 numbers he is the 3rd or 4th best starter depending on which stats you wish to use. ERA ERA+ FIP WHIP WAR/100IP Berrios 3.68 124 3.85 1.223 1.65 Odorizzi 3.51 131 3.36 1.208 2.26 Pineda 4.01 114 4.02 1.158 1.71 Gibson 4.84 95 4.26 1.444 0.19 Maeda 4.04 102 3.95 1.074 0.85 Maeda by ERA is tied for 3rd with Pineda, ERA+ is 4th, FIP is 3rd, WHIP is 1st, WAR/100IP is 4th, $/WAR he is 2nd behind Berrios at 2.4 million. Note I used WAR/100 innings pitch because Maeda pitched in relief about 10 times. Edit. The data is taken from Baseball reference.

Agree with Raindog. Trading a our top pitching prospect for a number 4 starter. Doesn’t quite make sense.

Hopefully Buxton is able to play 150+ games this year. If not, it is nice to have Gilberto Celestino who is a true CF with elite defensive tools on the 40 man. I think the Twins were hurt last year by not having a true CF who could fill in for a long spell when it was needed.

Possible solutions going forward. 1). Eliminate teams ability to review plays before issuing a challenge. The video feeds for this were an enabling feature for the cheating. 2). Allow pitchers and catchers to communicate electronically. The example here is how NFL teams communicate to the QB from the sidelines. The advantage here is there would be no more signs to steal from the catcher. Disadvantage is the infielders would not know what was coming either. 3). Longer term solution is to allow electronic communication to all players. Not sure how to prevent teams from eaves dropping on this communication. I think for football games, the NFL actually runs the electronic communications. 4). Mandate a video delay from broadcaster of ~ 10 seconds. Under the current rules, what stops someone from sitting in CF with a binoculars and signalling the pitch with some object (hat, newspaper, etc).

Twice during the playoffs, The Twins had Sano at 3B and Gonzalez at 1B for at least part of the game. (Note this point was made on a previous game thread on TD). From Fangraphs Gonzalez's UZR/150 at 3B is about +19. Sano's UZR/150 is -19. Gonzalez is a significantly better at 3B. Twins explanation is that Sano is more engaged as a hitter when at 3B. If Sano can not engage himself as a hitter while playing 1B or DH, I am not sure what to think. Maybe Sano needs to find a new job. That the Twins management chose to field a weaker defensive alignment, that is on the manager/management. Watching the Cardinals vs Braves series, it is very clear who are the players who start for offense and those who are in the game for defense. In game 5, with 10 run lead, Matt Carpenter, the starting 3B because of his offense, did not even take the field.

“Rosters expand on September 1st, and both are eligible for the postseason roster.” The requirement is that both would need to be on the 40 man roster by August 31 to be eligible for the postseason roster. Currently neither are on the 40 man roster.

Through the first part of the season, Gonzalez played most of his innings at 3B. Gonzalez has the highest UZR/150 among 3B with at least 100 innings played (data is from Fangraphs). Additionally, Fangraphs ran a series of articles on playoff killers. At 1B, they identified replacing Cron as the easiest position to upgrade either via a trade or internal rearranging—such as Sano to first and Gonzalez at third. The Twins started the season with an abundance of outfielders. Buxton and Wade are hurt. Rosario’s defense has fallen of a cliff (as discussed previously on TD). Cave was known to be defensively challenged and Granite was traded.

Here is an interesting article on the Mets Edwin Diaz https://nypost.com/2019/07/24/how-mets-can-salvage-this-edwin-diaz-mess/

From the Mets, Zack Wheeler may be a more suitable trade target. His stats are slightly better than Thor’s. Because Wheeler is a free agent at the end of the season, he may be available for Gordon. The comparisons to a Chris Archer trade seem quite suitable for Syndergaard. As mentioned by other TD members above, he has a 4.55 ERA, all his peripherals are at career worsts and he is the third best pitcher on the Mets. Yet, he is treated like an Ace. So unless the Twins staff has identified a delivery flaw that can be corrected, I would stay away from Thor.

On WPA. How are errors factored into WPA. How can Adrianza have 2 errors, which essentially cost the Twins the game, and still have a positive WPA.