Eris

By starting the discussion with 2011, this article does not do justice to the Terry Ryan's Twins first round draft ineptitude but does avoid reminding us of many additional years of draft futility. The first round failures Matthew Moses 2003 Steven Waldrop 2004 Matthew Fox 2004 Supplemental Jay Rainville 2004 Supplemental Henry Sanchez 2005 Chris Parmelee 2006 Carlos Gutiérrez 2008 Shooter Hunt 2008 Supplemental Matthew Bashore 2009 Alex Wimmers 2010 Successes or partial successes in this time frame include Aaron Heilman 2000 (drafted but did not sign) Joe Mauer 2001 Denard Span 2002 Trevor Plouffe 2004 Glen Perkins 2004 Matt Garza 2005 Ben Revere 2007 Aaron Hicks 2008 Kyle Gibson 2009 From 2000 - 2016, about 48% of the Twins first round picks had some type of decent career in the majors. (I put Luke Bard in the disappointment category). There were in this time frame multiyear stretches of futility. I am not sure if this number is historically bad compared to other teams. Revisionist history is not the proper way to evaluate draft selections. In hindsight everyone knows that Mike Trout and Mookie Betts should have been selected. However, most other teams also passed on these talents. A proper way to judge the draft would be compare the Twins long term draft results to other teams based some pre-defined objective criteria. My choices for this criteria would include: Did they make it to the majors, 3 highest years of WAR, number of years played and total war. I would also be interested in median as well as mean results. My instincts are aligned with the theme of the article in that the Terry Ryan was doing a poor job in selecting the Twins first round pick(s) each year. However, I have not seen statistical data comparing his success/failures to those of other MLB teams. Most of the current starting team was signed by Ryan. And there are still promising players in the minors that were drafted under Terry Ryan (such as Jordan Balazovic and Ben Rortvedt) Presently, it looks like Thad Levine’s is running at about at least a 60 - 80% success rate. Keoni Cavaco is likely to be a disappointment (although he is still young) and it is too early to determine the outcome of Aaron Sabato’s selection. However in order to achieve a higher success rate, they have sacrificed defensive value by choosing mostly bat first college players. There are some long term limitations of this strategy. Some of Levine’s non-first round picks such as Ryan Jeffers are likely to have decent MLB careers. Levine also seems to be doing better in getting value in trades.

Analytics is about long term outcomes with large sample sizes. How did the infield shift work for the Twins vs Astros? The shift doesn’t stop a run from scoring if the hitter is willing an able to execute on an opposite field single. Nick Anderson may have been the Rays best reliever over the entire season (and perhaps analytically he still is) but he had allowed at least one run in 6 straight postseason appearances. This is why teams have managers. Sometimes human judgement and instinct are needed.

From the NY Post today https://nypost.com/2020/09/18/yankees-making-history-with-this-show-of-home-run-power/

Houston is currently the 2nd seed in the AL West. That is unlikely to change and they don't play the Yankees anymore in this regular season. There is nothing the Astros can do to effect Yankees playoffs. I am rooting for either Baltimore or Detroit to claim the final AL Wild Card.

I had forgotten about Chilli Davis’ game 3 home run. When I am feeling down and need cheering up I pull up Puckett’s game 6 home run. Therefore I would have that as number 1. It should noted that before game 6, facing elimination, Kirby asked teammates to “jump on his back” as he would carry the load. I am not sure correct quote. What I remember is “hop on the bus, I will carry the load.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kirby-puckett-world-series-minnesota-twins-atlanta-braves-25-years-ago-102616%3famp=true On Gene Larkin’s heroics. Larkin battled a knee injury most of the season and by the WS could barely run and therefore was limited to mostly pinch hitting duties for the WS. My memory is foggy but he may have actually reinjuried the knee in one of the early rounds of the playoffs. Not quite Kurt Gibson heroics but very close.

Here is a link to WAR calculations. Catcher has the greatest positional increase in WAR at +9 and DH the largest decrease at -15 per 1350 innings. This is from baseball reference. FanGraphs is probably slightly different (I haven’t looked). https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml Current values (per 1350 (150*9) innings played) are: C: +9 runs SS: +7 runs 2B: +3 runs CF: +2.5 runs 3B: +2 runs RF: -7 runs LF: -7 runs 1B: -9.5 runs DH: -15 runs P: see Pitcher Positional Adjustment

Seth, thank you for these informative write ups. I have read several articles over the past two or three weeks commenting on Lewis’ swing. Here’s one from Fangraphs. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-twins-prospect-royce-lewis-has-a-cacophonous-swing-and-a-sky-high-ceiling/ I think the general conclusion is that his swing needs to be modified for the big leagues. Remembering the two lost years modifying Buxton’s swing, I am curious as to why the Twins are not taking a more proactive approach and modifying his swing while he is in the minors.

Running into a wall going more than 20 mph in a game with the Twins having a sizeable lead is not an accident. It shows poor judgement and lack of situational awareness.

I was a little sloppy, I should have quoted the source. It is from a Jay Jaffe's write-up on Fangraphs (about 1/3 of the way down the article). Jay wrote the article before the details of the Betts trade were known. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-price-would-offer-dodgers-more-name-recognition-than-certainty/ I have done an analysis comparing our starters from last year to Maeda. On the Twins rotation, based on 2019 numbers he is the 3rd or 4th best starter depending on which stats you wish to use. ERA ERA+ FIP WHIP WAR/100IP Berrios 3.68 124 3.85 1.223 1.65 Odorizzi 3.51 131 3.36 1.208 2.26 Pineda 4.01 114 4.02 1.158 1.71 Gibson 4.84 95 4.26 1.444 0.19 Maeda 4.04 102 3.95 1.074 0.85 Maeda by ERA is tied for 3rd with Pineda, ERA+ is 4th, FIP is 3rd, WHIP is 1st, WAR/100IP is 4th, $/WAR he is 2nd behind Berrios at 2.4 million. Note I used WAR/100 innings pitch because Maeda pitched in relief about 10 times. Edit. The data is taken from Baseball reference.

Agree with Raindog. Trading a our top pitching prospect for a number 4 starter. Doesn’t quite make sense.

Hopefully Buxton is able to play 150+ games this year. If not, it is nice to have Gilberto Celestino who is a true CF with elite defensive tools on the 40 man. I think the Twins were hurt last year by not having a true CF who could fill in for a long spell when it was needed.

Possible solutions going forward. 1). Eliminate teams ability to review plays before issuing a challenge. The video feeds for this were an enabling feature for the cheating. 2). Allow pitchers and catchers to communicate electronically. The example here is how NFL teams communicate to the QB from the sidelines. The advantage here is there would be no more signs to steal from the catcher. Disadvantage is the infielders would not know what was coming either. 3). Longer term solution is to allow electronic communication to all players. Not sure how to prevent teams from eaves dropping on this communication. I think for football games, the NFL actually runs the electronic communications. 4). Mandate a video delay from broadcaster of ~ 10 seconds. Under the current rules, what stops someone from sitting in CF with a binoculars and signalling the pitch with some object (hat, newspaper, etc).

Twice during the playoffs, The Twins had Sano at 3B and Gonzalez at 1B for at least part of the game. (Note this point was made on a previous game thread on TD). From Fangraphs Gonzalez's UZR/150 at 3B is about +19. Sano's UZR/150 is -19. Gonzalez is a significantly better at 3B. Twins explanation is that Sano is more engaged as a hitter when at 3B. If Sano can not engage himself as a hitter while playing 1B or DH, I am not sure what to think. Maybe Sano needs to find a new job. That the Twins management chose to field a weaker defensive alignment, that is on the manager/management. Watching the Cardinals vs Braves series, it is very clear who are the players who start for offense and those who are in the game for defense. In game 5, with 10 run lead, Matt Carpenter, the starting 3B because of his offense, did not even take the field.

“Rosters expand on September 1st, and both are eligible for the postseason roster.” The requirement is that both would need to be on the 40 man roster by August 31 to be eligible for the postseason roster. Currently neither are on the 40 man roster.

Through the first part of the season, Gonzalez played most of his innings at 3B. Gonzalez has the highest UZR/150 among 3B with at least 100 innings played (data is from Fangraphs). Additionally, Fangraphs ran a series of articles on playoff killers. At 1B, they identified replacing Cron as the easiest position to upgrade either via a trade or internal rearranging—such as Sano to first and Gonzalez at third. The Twins started the season with an abundance of outfielders. Buxton and Wade are hurt. Rosario’s defense has fallen of a cliff (as discussed previously on TD). Cave was known to be defensively challenged and Granite was traded.

Here is an interesting article on the Mets Edwin Diaz https://nypost.com/2019/07/24/how-mets-can-salvage-this-edwin-diaz-mess/

From the Mets, Zack Wheeler may be a more suitable trade target. His stats are slightly better than Thor’s. Because Wheeler is a free agent at the end of the season, he may be available for Gordon. The comparisons to a Chris Archer trade seem quite suitable for Syndergaard. As mentioned by other TD members above, he has a 4.55 ERA, all his peripherals are at career worsts and he is the third best pitcher on the Mets. Yet, he is treated like an Ace. So unless the Twins staff has identified a delivery flaw that can be corrected, I would stay away from Thor.

On WPA. How are errors factored into WPA. How can Adrianza have 2 errors, which essentially cost the Twins the game, and still have a positive WPA.

Also, Buxton’s throw that hit the runner (Arcia?) for the Brewers third run. Although it would have taken a great tag, I thought Astudillo played the ball poorly. He should have been in front of the runner not behind the runner.

I think it is also worthwhile to review what happened last year. The 2 trades that had the biggest impact on the playoffs were made by the Red Sox. Depending on the source, Beeks was the 7th ranked 2018 preseason Red Sox prospect and Espinal was unranked (or more accurate to say I could not find his ranking). Although hindsight is always 20/20, the Steve Pearce acquisition was listed as an afterthought on the deadline trade summary. 1B/OF Steve Pearce and cash considerations from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for minor league INF Santiago Espinal RHP Nathan Eovaldi to Red Sox; LHP Jalen Beeks to Rays https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-trades-news-rumors-trade-deadline-yankees-braves-dodgers-cubs-red-sox/zpm9eicioqzl1l0r90ftoio3a

It is a little late posting this. I was at the game last night with my son. And had a seat several rows behind the Mets dugout. Several observations that have not been discussed. I thought Kepler has 2 very good at bats last night, with only a single to show for it. First inning, he had a 7 pitch at bat leading off the game (ending in a SO). This kind of set the tone for the Twins batters. There were alot of quality at bat against deGrom. The 4th inning he had a similarly good at bat before getting a single. Buxton looks very good. Except for the last at bat (which was poor in part because he looked like he was trying to hit a HR) he had some quality at bats. Astudillo seems a little slow to the ball at first base. Two plays in particular. The ball that glanced off Astudillo's glove and both Schoop and Gibson made a combined great play. And a double down the first base line (I don't remember the innings for either play). I thought Astudillo should have gotten to both balls. The fans in NY can be quite ruthless. After Peter Alonso made and error, some of fans were yelling "See you in Syracuse" (Mets AAA) as he was coming off the field. He is only hitting 0.385. There were other comments directed toward Cano and d'Arnaud that I can't write here. It was bone chilling cold and Citi Field. I never realized the 50 degrees could feel so cold (and I thought we had dressed properly). When the game ended at 11:45, there were only about 1000 fans left in the stands. I thought the ushers were a little too aggressive in preventing fans from moving down during the last couple to innings. There were so few fans left and it was so cold, I thought it would have been a nice gesture.

I would add a stage. Going to MLB and checking Astudillo’s rookie status. He is eligible for the rookie of the year award. This is going to be exciting. A Twin has not won Rookie of the Year since Marty Cordova in 1995.

I would add Paul DePodesta to this list. When he went to the Cleveland Browns there was some serious questions about how he could apply "moneyball" techniques to football. He is having some success as the Browns had a competitive team for the first time in many years. There was recently an article (which I can't find, it may have been is the Wall Street Journal) which indicated the DePodesta had a plan to be competitive for 10 years. And as part of this, traded current draft picks for more valuable future picks (because the NFL overvalues this years picks by about 20% compared to next years draft picks). https://clutchpoints.com/salary-cap-wizard-paul-depodesta-helped-john-dorsey-browns-create-best-contract-situation-nfl/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_DePodesta

I think the benefits of using the opener is related to how poorly a pitcher does the third time through the order. The use of the opener would mean that a pitcher can get deeper into the game without having to face the top of the order 3 times.

Several items I would add to this. The view from the bullpen is phenomenal. These are a few sequences from the bullpen before last years Twins-Red Sox game. Duffy vs. Sale. https://www.smugmug.com/gallery/n-7HHBdX Red Sox games at Jet Blue Park are almost always sold out. You need to plan ahead to watch games there. Jet Blue Park is a replica of Fenway Park with the Green Monster and it is probably worth seeing. http://www.floridagrapefruitleague.com/home/teams/redsox/ Other items around Ft. Meyers worth seeing. Lovers Key State Park (about 45 minutes from the Stadium. Closes at sundown). Beaches on Sanibel Island (also about 45 minutes, no free beach access, will need to pay for parking) Everglades City and Marco Island are 90 minutes south of Ft. Meyers. There are a number of places to rent kayaks or take an airboat tour of the Everglades. A 2 hour drive from Hammond Stadium puts you in the middle of Everglades National Park. There are plenty of tourist type attractions along rt 41/90. Here is a link (the description starts from Miami) https://www.floridarambler.com/florida-destinations/tamiami-trail-scenic-drive-everglades/