Eris

LF. Larnach had 1.1 WAR last season playing in 25 games. If he is healthy for even half the season he should be able to put up at least 2 WAR. The position to be worried about is 3B as Miranda has not been tested there defensively. Of course he is an option at first base as well.

The Guardians had one of the youngest teams in the MLB last year. Barring injuries they will only get better. Kwan is the Guardians version of Luis Arraez, but able to play a decent defense.

Any player whose contributes negative value defensively is a primary candidate to see more time at DH. This explains why Luis Arraez is towards the top of games played at DH. Based on last years defense, Jose Miranda might see more time at DH. Hoping he plays solid D at third.

The baseball hall of stats has Mauer well above Molina in terms of Hall of Fame worthiness. According to the hall of stats website, Molina should not be inducted into the HoF. This will serve as a useful test of the perception of Mauer vs that of Molina. http://www.hallofstats.com/position/c

I am disappointed that the contract keeps coming up. Reality is that Joe Mauer’s career was cut short by a career altering concussion. Of which he was still having symptoms the year he retired. Would there be the same level of discussion about the contract if his career would have been altered by a back injury suffered in, e.g., a home plate collision. Twins and their fans were robbed of truly great careers from Mauer, Justin Morneau, and to a lesser extent Corey Koskie—all because of career altering concussions. But because Mauer was in a different stage of his contract we somehow feel differently about his injury.

Matt, thank you for the well written article. It made my Sunday.

For HoF voting, he will be compared to his contemporaries. Francisco Lindor is clearly the best. Correa is grouped with Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Therefore it is doubtful that he makes it. Unless, perhaps, Correa delivers 2 or 3 World Series titles for the Twins while earning MVP honors along the way. Even then, he will still be compared to Lindor for HoF voting.

I am a little bit puzzled by the large differences in DRS vs statcast metrics. in the catch probability leaderboard Buxton has 84% catch probability and 8 outs above average. And 66% of 4 star opportunities v Kepler: 69% and 11 OAA, 62% of 4 star opportunities Gallo is 58% and -3 OAA. 22% of 4 star opportunities Obviously one main difference is the OAA and catch probability doesn’t take into consideration arm strength and accuracy, whereas DRS does.

Fangraphs because I find their site easier to use.

The Yankees trading Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals this past trade deadline. Montgomery went 6-3 for the Cardinals. Still it doesn’t quite meet your criteria as Bader was not a prospect The trade was also impacted due to the Yankees acquiring Montas https://www.si.com/mlb/yankees/.amp/news/answering-questions-new-york-jordan-montgomery-trade-for-harrison-bader-st-louis-cardinals

I think it would be a mistake for the Twins to offer a 9 year deal that was not contingent on a physical especially since both the Giants and the Mets had enough concerns to scuttle their deals with Correa.

While it is easy to point fingers at the Mets for so quickly signing a contract when the Giants had issues with Correa’s medicals. It should be noted that Boras indicated that Correa’s doctors did not agree with the Giant’s opinion. For me, Boras loses credibility on this as he as an agent depends on building relationships with team front offices. For long term success these contracts have to be wins for both the players and owners.

I don’t disagree with your assessment. However, Boras represents his clients. Historically he has attracted clients who wanted the most money/longest contracts or some combination of. If Correa told Boras to work out a contract with the Mets that involved an injury exclusion, Boras would be obligated to do so.

The Correa saga is interesting. For 2 years in a row teams have thrown big money at many free agents and Correa has missed out (or is close to missing out ). I wonder why this is.

Big Papi had a career 17.3 K%. On the 2022 Twins only Miranda (18.8), Urshela (17.4), Kepler (14.8), and Arraez (7.1%) have a K% less than 20. As a comparison, Joe Mauer had a career K% of 13.0. If there is a learning from releasing Big Papi it seems that it should be we need players with power who do not strike out a lot. all data is from Fangraphs.

I can’t disagree with the conclusions. Is it possible that the Twins have reached this situation because all of the obvious base stealing candidates are either a high risk for injuries or have hurt themselves previously running bases. I would consider Buxton, Polanco, Kepler and Gordon to be obvious base stealing candidates. Of these only Gordon has been relatively uninjured over the last couple of years.

Since 2018, Kepler has 37 OAA 5th best) and Gallo has 5 (59th best). I not sure how Gallo can be considered close close to Kepler defensively. By way of comparison, Jake Cave had 3 OAA over this time period. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2018&endYear=2022&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=of&roles=&viz=show

Reports have Correa signing with the Mets. https://nypost.com/2022/12/21/carlos-correa-agrees-to-12-year-315-million-deal-with-mets/ https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/mets-to-sign-carlos-correa.html

I would not consider Correa to be more decorated than Lindor. Per Fangraphs, Lindor has put up 11 more WAR than Correa. They were both rookies in 2015. Lindor also plays a better and more consistent defense. Correa is the better offensive player. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2015-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31

I am not bothered by Correa signing elsewhere, especially for that length of contract. He is not an elite defender at SS and I doubt that he will stick there for more than a few more years. It would have been wonderful for Correa to be Twin for the next 3 or 4 years, but signing the most expensive free agents to decade long contracts is not how the Twins will be competitive long term as the Twins can not afford a bad contract of that magnitude should things go south. I am more bothered by the Jorge Lopez for Povich trade. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/orioles-trade-jorge-lopez-twins-closer.html

I do agree with the comments. I think misreading the playoff prospects for the Twins last season and being buyers of ineffective or soon to be injured pitchers rather than sellers at the trade deadline is also on the FO.

The Mets are now interested in Carlos Correa because of course they are! Who aren't the former #lolmets interested in nowadays? It's not as if they have a shortstop that's truly great. They obviously need two of them.. *sigh* View full rumor

I have never really understood the trade Max Kepler rumors. He is a well above average defensive outfielder, capable of filling in at CF with slightly below average offensive output. His contract for 2023 is a very reasonable 8.5 million (compared to for example the 17.5 million 1 year contract that Cody Bellinger signed). Trading Max Kepler will not bring back the elite SP the Twins desperately need, but will make our outfield defense much worse.

San Diego agreed to an 11-year, $280 million contract with shortstop Xander Bogaerts late Wednesday night, The Post’s Jon Heyman first reported. The deal includes a no-trade clause. I think the view on these threads was that Bogaerts was considered an affordable alternative to Correa. What does this mean for Correa’s contract. Maybe 10 years at $350 million.