Jeremy Nygaard

It will be interesting to see how the Padres prospects are graded when Fangraphs releases their list. I don't want to use another list to compare because that's apples and oranges, but based on how the Padres use a lot of their prospects in deals, I have to guess they don't have a ton of pitchers that rank higher than 40+ or hitters that are higher than 40 FV. That said, Kevin Goldstein - as I posted in today's video - was high on Susana when he was still at Fangraphs. I don't see any way he's higher than a 40 or 40+. Didn't look too much, but IFAs usually take awhile to go above 40.

With you on this. That's two more weeks than Arraez or Gordon got before playing OF in the big leagues.

He's not getting out of the contract, but he's getting out of having to live up to that contract.

The draft is a short three months away. Over the last week, there have been a number of newsworthy draft notes. Continue reading to learn more. Shortly after submitting last week’s piece, Georgia prep pitcher Dylan Lesko set the internet ablaze with a dominating performance in the NHSI tournament in Cary, North Carolina. Over four innings and 51 pitches, Lesko struck out seven and allowed two hits, hit a batter, and gave up a run. He had 12 swinging strikes that can be seen below. Over the next couple days I read about comparisons to Stephen Strasburg as well as prep pitchers who have gone very high in the draft over the last decade. You can read more about Lesko and other prospects seen at NHSI here. Of course, pitchers are fragile and earlier this week ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported that Lekso would miss his next start due to arm soreness. At this time, I’m not going to react in any other way besides bumping him up my prospect list. High school coaches, typically, keep the player’s best interest in mind. College coaches… well, they don’t. Assuming Lesko returns to health, there is no reason to believe he won’t be the first pitcher taken. Chase DeLauter, an outfielder from James Madison, was considered a potential Top 10 pick before a horrible opening weekend. He was starting to help his draft stock before the news dropped that he may miss the rest of the season. We’ve mentioned Brandon Barriera in this space in recent weeks. In a year where pitching is light, Barriera is deciding to shut it down early and prepare for his next step. If there’s one school that can persuade top prospects to not go pro, it’s Vanderbilt. I don’t think that will be the case here. And finally, because it’s never too early to think about next year’s draft, Ole Miss shortstop Jake Gonzalez is a dude and may be the early favorite to go first overall. Only a few changes in my top 10. Jeremy's Top 10 MLB Draft Prospects 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 4.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit)(Baseball America breaks down his game.) (previously: 5) 5.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly (previously: 4) 6.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU 7.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech 8.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech 9.) Andrew Susac, C, Arizona 10.) Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep (Oklahoma State commit) MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v2.0 (4/1/22) / v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/4/22) View full article

Baseball America just released their updated Top 30. 13) Kevin Kopps 14) Jarlin Susana 15) Victor Lizarraga Elliott could certainly end up being the guy. Like you said, he's "funky" and the Twins focus has been more on guys with sliders (which pushes Kopps and Susana up my list). Lizarraga isn't a slider guy, but he's still very young.

What could Kevin Goldstein, formerly of Fangraphs, now with the Twins, have to do with the potential final piece of the Taylor Rogers trade? View full video

Susana "signed" on January 15 at the opening of the IFA window. I'm guessing the official signing took place some days after, assuming he was brought to San Diego for a physical. He's prohibited from being traded for 90 days from the day the pen hit the paper, so we're looking at probably sometime next week at the earliest.

A late night finish on Tuesday has been followed up with early Wednesday transactions as Dereck Rodriguez has had his contract selected, Jharel Cotton has been DFA'd, and Alex Kirilloff has been placed on the IL with a recurrence of last year's wrist problems. Taking his place is Trevor Larnach. The assumption is that Larnach will presumably become the Twins new regular left fielder. But maybe the Twins need to take a closer look at the recently-released Justin Upton. Upton was DFA'd by the Angels last week and cleared waivers earlier this week. The Angels are on the hook for the remainder of his contract. If Upton wants to play major league baseball, he could potentially do it for the Twins for the pro-rated league minimum ($700k). It doesn't take a math genius to figure out that Upton isn't particularly good in left field, nearly every number being preceded by a minus sign tells that story. Of course, having Byron Buxton helping patrol the outfield next to him should help. The other issue, of course, is that if Upton isn't great in the field, he should at least make up for it with his bat, right? Well, you'd hope, but that hasn't been great either. Since his age-31 season in 2019, Upton has put together three straight sub-.730 OPS seasons. But they aren't even full seasons, they're more like Byron Buxton seasons, playing in a combined 194 games, with last year's 89 being a three-year high. So what could Upton provide? He could be an option as a right-handed bat in an outfield that needs it. Maybe you believe in Kyle Garlick. Or maybe you think Gilberto Celestino should fill a part-time role instead of going to St. Paul to play every day. But maybe you think Upton can be worth a look, knowing that you can move on at any time without it being a huge loss. Justin Upton slashed .219/.265/.531 (.796 OPS) in 64 at-bats in 2020 and .225/.355/.483 (.838 OPS) in 89 at-bats against lefties in 2021. Both of those are well off his career .259/.359/.493 (.852 OPS) line, but if believing that Gary Sanchez can benefit from the change of scenery by getting out of the bright lights of New York, can't we believe the same thing about Upton getting out from the terrible contract and underwhelming performance in Los Angeles? View full article

Nice! I'm sticking with my three. All of which would be good gets.

I feel pretty confident that the three I mention as most likely to be included are all in the 40 FV range, without seeing their updated ranking. Lizarraga is a 45 on MLB and Kopps and Susana are both 40, though they don't distinguish between 40 and 40+ like Fangraphs.

From Rosenthal's latest piece, he says "the Twins estimate the value of the player they will get from the group they are considering to be $2 million-plus." Impossible to say how specific players are valued, but I can't imagine a prospect outside of the Top 20(ish) would be described as a $2-million plus player. That's a Top 35-type pick in the draft.

Another thing that I heard... maybe it was Seth that mentioned it on here or just me, was that there have been questions about Paddack's elbow, so the PTBN might be allowing some time to see how he pitches over the first month of the season. Could it be that if the elbow acts up, there might be a different list...?

I included Morejon later because I thought it would be an interested maneuver. But, yeah, I'd think you're right on it not being Morejon.

I've read that's it allowed to trade a player on the 60-day IL. You can only use the 60-day IL with a full 40-man. I am not sure if a 60-day IL'd player named as a PTBNL has to be reinstated to either 40-man. I cannot think of an example of this happening before.

You're probably right. I just went into the tool and reversed the trade and took the difference, not accounting for Rogers value being higher now than before. But either way, it's going to be someone and being a recent IFA-signee makes the most sense. Susana is probably aiming too high. Dang. I liked him.

There was no Twins game last Thursday, but there was still activity at 1 Twins Way as the team completed a trade with the Padres. Heading to San Diego was Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker and a whole bunch of cash. Coming back to Minneapolis was Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan and the always interesting “player to be named later.” So far - and understandably so - there has been very little information released on the future mystery player aside from one tweet from Darren “Doogie” Wolfson. Anything beyond that is complete speculation. But speculation can be fun, so let’s take a closer look at who the Twins might be adding in the next few weeks. To give me an idea of players who might be included, I plugged the trade into Baseball Trade Values. Obviously, this isn't an exact science, but it’s probably the least biased way to come up with a list of names. Plugging in the trade as it happened, the simulator had the Twins giving up 4.9 more value points than it received. The potential inclusion of any of the Padres top prospects would tip the scale heavily in the Twins favor, but there are a number of prospects in the next tier who could make sense as this “player to be named later.” Typically, when a trade like this occurs, the teams agree to a list of players and conditions. It could be as simple as having six names on a list and the Twins get to pick one name off of that list on May 1. It could be something more complex. It could be - and this case might be - something that makes a whole lot of sense. Let’s take a look at some names that may be on that list. And why the Twins may want them. Ranked from least likely to most likely to be a Twin, in my opinion. Joshua Mears, Outfield. Ranked in the system’s Top 10 by both MLB.com and Baseball America, Mears was drafted in 2019. His power is his calling card. He already has two home runs in three games this season in high-A, but has struck out in eight of his twelve at bats. As the top-rated prospect on my list and - in my opinion - the likelihood that the Twins prefer pitching, I think the chances of Mears being the player is small. Samuel Zavana, Outfield. Zavana checks in on BA’s list at #12, but missed MLB.com’s. Zavala fits the profile of what the Twins like with a scouting report that includes things like “regarded as one of the best pure hitters” in his signing class and having “long possessed a knack for finding the barrel.” The 17-year-old would make a ton of sense. But in trying to sleuth this out, Zavala will be playing in the complex league this year, so the Twins won't even get a chance to scout him between now and then. So if it were to be him, why not just include him in the original deal? Victor Acosta, Shortstop. Acosta, like Zavana, will be playing in a complex league this summer. Ranked #11 by MLB and #12 by BA, I put Acosta a notch above Zavana because he has more defensive value. But, again, if you can’t see him in the next month, wouldn’t you have wanted to get him into your complex as soon as possible? Robert Gasser, Pitcher. Gasser is ranked #9 on both sites after being selected in the Competitive Balance, B Round in the 2021 draft. After getting 15 innings of pro ball under his belt last year, Gasser, a lefty, made his High-A debut last week. It was brutal. Four walks, four hits, seven outs. I don’t think a single game is a reason the Twins wouldn’t trade for him though, I think it’s because the Padres would be less likely to include him on the list. The next guy is a complete wild-card who technically fits Doogie’s profile. Adrian Morejon, Pitcher. Morejan, 23, is a highly-regarded Cuban left-hander who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s a “non-roster” guy because he’s on the 60-day Injured List, so he wouldn’t require a 40-man move. Morejan has 16 games of MLB experience under his belt and spent the last five seasons ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100. While not expected to return to the mound until later this season, it’s been a year since his surgery. Being a PTBNL could just be a way of giving the Twins a chance to get a greater feel of how his recovery is going. Remember, this trade all came together very quickly. For what it's worth, even though there are over 100 potential players for this to be, I’d bet on it being one of these three over the field. Full disclosure: I like taking long odds. It’s not often successful. Victor Lizarraga, Pitcher. Signed out of Mexico last year and ranked #13 by MLB and #15 by BA, Lizarraga is pitching in Low-A ball at 18 this year. He would make a ton of sense as a lottery ticket in a trade such as this. He’s a fastball/curveball/changeup pitcher with shaky command. Kevin Kopps, Pitcher. Kopps, currently in AA, ranks #14 on BA’s list and #16 on MLB’s list. Drafted in the 3rd round last year, Kopps spread his 14 ⅔ innings over three levels, striking out 22 and notching three saves. Kopps is serving as a closer using one big weapon: a breaking ball that has been nearly unhittable. Some call it a cutter, some call it a slider. Baseball America calls it the best slider in the system. The Twins, if I had to guess, would deploy whatever it is in the same way they used Sergio Romo’s and Tyler Clippard’s sliders. Kopps, who turns 25 soon, has Tommy John in his rearview and could soon be a bullpen option for whatever team he is on. Jarlin Susana, Pitcher. Susana is ranked #18 by MLB.com and the just-turned-18-year-old has an impressive and imposing 6’ 6”, 235-pound frame. Signed in January by the Padres for $1.7 million, Susana has a big-time fastball that can touch 100 and a slider that is next best pitch (among the four he throws). So what separates him from the other complex league pitchers? Because of when he signed, he can’t be traded until later this month. ? Maybe it’s a coincidence. Or maybe Susana is the player to be named later. (The Padres also added many other international free agents in mid-January who become eligible to be traded later this month. Among them are two 16-year-old infielders, Yendry Rojas and Rosman Verdugo. Neither are as highly regarded as Susana, though. Rojas, from Cuba, is a very good hitter with decent size (6' 1", 190) and speed and Verdugo, from Mexico, was considered the top prospect from Mexico.) What do you think? Who do you prefer? View full article

Lesko was realllllllllyy good yesterday. There will be much more on him next week. As of today, I'd pick him at 8... but I think there's only a slim chance he'd be available.

Happy Opening Week of Twins Baseball! As pro baseball gets into the swing of things, the amateur season continues and now starts to share the spotlight. We've got you covered on all things draft-related. For draft lovers, this week is going to be a focus on just a couple pieces of information that came out since our last update. Last Friday, Baseball America published their second mock draft of the spring. If you recall (or to save you from checking), they mocked the Twins selecting James Madison outfielder Chase DeLauter in their first version. DeLauter really struggled in the season’s first series against good competition, though he has seemed to right the ship (against lesser competition). He has dropped in the newest projection. Version 2.0 now has the Twins selecting Jacob Berry, a corner infielder from LSU. That would be an excellent value pick, considering he’s viewed as one of the top two college hitters in the draft (along with Cal Poly’s Brooks Lee). The current regime has placed an emphasis on college bats, so a potential Berry pick - which may frustrate some - would fall in line with what we’ve seen with picks like Aaron Sabato and Trevor Larnach. Speaking of Brooks Lee… Keith Law posted some scouting notes earlier this week at The Athletic. He really likes the aforementioned Lee, calling him “one of the safest bets at the top of the draft this year” though he offers the caveat that Lee doesn’t “offer the upside of the high school players in that same echelon.” Law also writes about Kevin Parada of Georgia Tech. Parada has gotten plenty of pub at Twins Daily in the last month and Law sees him as a “top 10 (pick) if the draft were held today, with a chance to get into the top five.” Jumping into my Top 10 this week are two new names: Jackson Holliday, a prep SS from Oklahoma who’s committed to Oklahoma State. He’s the son of Matt Holliday, the hitting coach at Oklahoma State, under head coach Robin Ventura. Daniel Susac, a catcher from Arizona. Jamie Cameron did a great job introducing him in his college baseball notebook earlier this week. Jeremy's Top 10 MLB Draft Prospects 1.) Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) 2.) Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep 3.) Elijah Green, OF, Florida prep (Miami commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) 4.) Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly 5.) Dylan Lesko, SP, Georgia prep (Vanderbilt commit) (Baseball America breaks down his game.) (previously: 7) 6.) Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU (previously: 5) 7.) Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech (previously: ? 8.) Jace Jung, 3B, Texas Tech (previously: 6) 9.) Andrew Susac, C, Arizona (previously unranked) 10.) Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep (Oklahoma State commit) OUT: Chase DeLauter, cOF, James Madison (previously: 9); Robert Moore, 2B, Arkansas (previously: 10) MOCK DRAFTS / PROSPECT BOARDS Baseball America - v2.0 (4/1/22) / v1.0 (2/10/22) / Top 200 (3/14/22) MLB.com - Callis - Top 10 (12/15/21), Mayo - Top 20 (7/20/21) / Top 100 The Athletic - Law Top 30 (3/10/22) ESPN - Early Draft Rankings (7/26/21) ($$$ - ESPN+) / McDaniel’s Draft Rankings (2/24/22) Fangraphs - The Board / 2022 MLB Draft Rankings and Offseason List Primer (11/30/21) Just Baseball v1.0 (2/10/22) My MLB Draft (1/18/22) Prospects Live v1.0 (1/4/22) View full article

Haven't tried to go in-depth anywhere but on the guys at the top of the draft.

If my last-updated list went to 11, Collier would have been listed.