Jeremy Nygaard

I think you're spot on. With the exception of Johnson, the rest of the top prep hitters are sons of former professional athletes who all made a good amount of money as players and hopefully surrounded themselves with smart negotiators and smart money people. They could have a little more leverage because, hopefully, it's not saying yes or no to "life-changing" money. (I'm assuming that if you've made $160m like Matt Holliday or $130m like Andruw Jones, that $6m isn't life-changing anymore.) So if you think you could do better, wait a year and try again. The other side of the argument is if they're rich already, who cares. But you don't see free agents taking less-than-they-can-get money to play somewhere they don't want to, so I'd *guess* these guys are in a better position to get to the teams of their choice.

The draft kicks off tomorrow evening and we have the Final TwinsDaily/Brewer Fanatic Mock Draft. Despite being on the clock for the last nine months, the Orioles haven’t given any clear indication about the direction in which they plan to go. When paths deviate before the draft even starts, mock drafts can be a mess in a hurry. But, like I said before, that doesn’t mean we sholdn’t try! Orioles - Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly - Druw Jones and Jackson Holliday could be the direction they go here. Termarr Johnson could be a good money-savings option. I keep coming back to Lee, who might not be the flashiest option, but can help the Orioles quicker than the prep options. Diamondbacks - Druw Jones, OF, Georgia HS - This seems to be the best prospect’s floor. While Jones is a near-lock to be under consideration for the first pick, it’s entirely possible that the Diamondbacks are willing to outspend the Orioles on Jones, taking him out of the running for the first pick. But if Jones goes first, then Holliday goes here. Rangers - Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma HS - If the Rangers get this chance, they jump on it. If they don’t, they take Kevin Parada. One of Lee or Parada falls out of the top 3. Pirates - Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC - The Pirates would have a number of good options if the draft played out like this. Collier, Termarr Johnson and Kevin Parada all would be in play. Nationals - Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech - Back to my original projection with the Nationals, though Elijah Green and Termarr Johnson are two prep names to keep in mind here. Marlins - Jacob Berry, DH, LSU - In this scenario, the Marlins pass on both Elijah Green and Termarr Johnson. Cubs - Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia HS - The Cubs wait anxiously and get the guy they wanted all along. Twins - Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech - Take a haircut on an overdraft, try to find other money to overpay Elijah Green or stay true to their value board and take Cross. Those are the options the Twins face in this scenario. Royals - Justin Crawford, OF, Nevada HS - The Royals traded a pick and the slot money that goes with it to acquire a centerfielder earlier in the week, so what sense does it make to take an underslot centerfielder now? It doesn’t. But the draft doesn’t always make sense. Rockies - Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech - When Green drops to this point, it becomes about money. The Mets have it. The Rockies don’t. The Rockies take the top available college hitter. Mets - Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy - The drop stops here. The Mets will do what they planned to do last year and pay their first pick over slot. If Green does get to this point, there is decent reason to believe he would drop to fourteen, with the Mets locking up their savings first. Tigers - Connor Prielipp, RHP, Alabama - The Tigers might prefer a college bat - but they’ve been picked over - or Cade Horton, but Prielipp’s price tag could make him more appealing. Angels - Brandon Berriera, RHP, Florida HS - If shutting down for the season to keep healthy can lead to being the first prep arm off the board, then Berriera may have started a movement. Mets - Brock Porter, RHP, Michigan HS - Instead of cutting the deal here, the Mets will spend big again and figure out how to stay below the tax threshold later. Padres - Dylan Lesko, P, Georgia HS - I don’t know if it will go this way, but I’ve felt good about this since the first mock and I can’t bring myself to change it. Guardians - Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma - It’s almost unfair for the Guardians to get Horton, who was very impressive on his march through the NCAA Tournament. Phillies - Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga - The Phillies seem likely to go the pitching route and going the college route is a safer bet than dipping into the prep pool. Reds - Daniel Susac, C, Arizona - The Reds can get great value here and turn around and select a falling prep pitcher at 32. A’s - Zach Neto, SS, Campbell - Here’s another pairing that I can’t bring myself to change. Neto could certainly be off the board much sooner. Braves - Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State - Did the Braves make the trade with the Royals with a bigger plan in mind? We’ll know on Sunday if they land Dylan Lesko. Otherwise, taking a college pitcher makes sense. Mariners - Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt/Indy ball - I haven’t heard anything linking the two, but the Mariners are in on college pitching and the guys they might prefer are off the board. Cardinals - Cole Young, SS, Pennsylvania HS - The Cardinals have made a habit out of scooping up falling prospects. Blue Jays - Tucker Toman, 3B, South Carolina HS - There’s been buzz on Toman to Toronto for a while now. Red Sox - Jett Williams, SS, Texas HS - Like I said before, the Red Sox have had success with tiny infieders before, haven’t they? Yankees - Spencer Jones, OF, Vanderbilt - Another connection that is making the rounds. White Sox - Blake Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee - The White Sox try their luck on another college pitcher. Brewers - Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee - There are a number of college hitters still available and while Gilbert could go much earlier, would be a good get for the Brewers. Astros - Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison - The Astros, like the Brewers, have a lot of hitting prospects on the board. Rays - Robby Snelling, LHP, Nevada HS - The Rays know how to draft pitching and they’re getting a really good one late in the first round. Giants - Dylan Beavers, OF, Cal - The first round comes to a close by the Giants taking yet another college outfielder. View full article

The final mock of the draft season is here! We'll look at the selections as well as talk through some creative theories. Could the Mets and Braves throw their money around to get their preferred prospects to fall into their laps? View full video

That's been true when drafting outside of the Top 10. But definitely not true with this regime while drafting in the Top 10. They've definitely taken shots on upside (Lewis and Cavaco) with their high picks.

Then I'd suggest if Collier/Johnson are gone, you'd hope they go off the board to take Jett Williams/Justin Crawford and push a prep pitcher/overpay to 48.

We're 48 hours away. Players are done playing (though maybe not done working out) and teams will be solidifying their draft boards for the final time. The biggest question remains, "When the Twins are on the clock at #8, who's it going to be?" The Orioles aren't doing anyone any favors. They reportedly narrowed down their list to five guys, though no one is certain who those five guys are. But the teams behind them, the Diamondbacks and Rangers, appear to have clear preferences. Sorry, Druw Jones and Jackson Holliday are not going to be Twins. For all intents and purposes, they will be off the board with two of the first three choices. If they aren't, it's only because they've negotiated their way into another team's plans... and there's no reason to believe it would be the Twins. That leaves these names: Termarr Johnson is a future second baseman who is going to be a great hitter. I think it's easy to make a Luis-Arraez-with-power comparison and truly believe Johnson is 1a on the Twins "realistic" draft board. Johnson is believed to be in play at #1, with the realest threats being 4, 6 and 7. Cam Collier, my 1b to Johnson's 1a, is a different prospect in that he left high school early to be draft-eligible now instead of next year. His ceiling is unbelievable, but his floor is lower despite playing up a level as a high school junior. The teams most likely to poach Collier are the Pirates (4) or the Cubs (7). The ideal situation - at least as I see it - is that somehow Johnson and Collier both slip out of the Top 6. The Cubs would take one; the Twins will happily (and quickly) take the other. Is that possible? Sure, it's just not probable. Kevin Parada and Brooks Lee likely lead the next tier. I wouldn't put one above the other as I'd say it's almost impossible they are both on the board at #8. If Johnson and Collier are gone and either of these two are available, it should be relatively easy to pull the trigger on Parada or Lee. But after this point, all proverbial hell breaks loose. I know you're thinking, "wait, that's six guys. I thought it was about a Top 7?" The guy I haven't mentioned is Elijah Green, who, in my opinion is the first, biggest key to this draft. If he goes off the board before the Twins pick, now you've got your seven. But if he doesn't, I'm not sure it's a slam-dunk that the Twins take him. In fact, in reading the tea leaves, I think it's a coin flip at best. Then it's wide open. I think the Twins would be irresponsible to not consider Cade Horton or Connor Prielipp. And, if done creatively and with conviction they can get a preferred player at #48, would love to see Prielipp popped here. It's not often you can get arguably the best pitcher in the draft at a discount late in the Top 10. Those highest on Prielipp believe that. The upside is enormous. The floor is lower than it should be on a college pitcher, but given that he's a lefty with a plus fastball/slider combo already... it's certainly not as low as you'd think. The more likely scenario in a draft that is pitching-weak, would be to take a bat. And that's where Gavin Cross and Jacob Berry enter the conversation. Drafting either player wouldn't be overly exciting; drafting either player would be great for a system who has seen most of their top hitting prospects reach the major leagues. There is a group of others the Twins have been tied to at #8, but those would be drafted with the strong belief they're signing a below-slot deal, guys such as Jett Williams or Drew Gilbert. While they'd rank a little lower than the aforementioned names, you'd have to believe that the savings would help make the organization deeper, whether by getting one over-slot guy on the first day or spreading it around to multiple guys. So who is it going to be? The jury will be out for a couple more days, but hopefully this helps you make sense of all that is going on. View full article

Only picks that can be traded are competitive balance picks (so the Twins could trade pick 48). I'd love to see picks be allowed to be traded, it just is never agreed upon in the CBA. I'm guessing it's has a little to do with fear the free-spending teams would try to buy off the low-spending teams to set themselves up to get the best players quicker. It's a lot cheaper to give the Orioles $20, $30, $50 million and a few prospects to draft Druw Jones than it is to wait until he's a free agent and pay him $300 million.

Just yesterday, Doogie said they've seen plenty of Rocker and that it is most likely not going to happen.

From what I can find: Born in Norman. Grew up in Norman. Graduated from Norman High School. Probably dreamed of being a Sooner since birth (committed there to play baseball and football). I'd say it's probably the kid just really likes Norman, Oklahoma and the only thing that's going to take him away is a lot of cash.

Unless Parada drops, drafting a catcher at 8 would be a really bad idea. The exception being the Twins really believe Susac (or someone else) is the next big thing and they can sign him for millions less than slot (like comp round money). Any outcome drafting a catcher at 8 other than those would be a complete failure.

I know what you're thinking, "Wait a second. I thought you promised only one pitcher in your ten profiles?" And that is exactly the truth. But since we're suckers for the draft, we expanded the coverage and push those profiles over 10. As a result, you're getting another pitcher. Cade Horton wasn't on our radar when we mapped out our draft coverage. And he probably doesn't need to be now. But we didn't want to leave any stone unturned and when we've heard #8 mentioned as Horton's ceiling... well, that makes our ears perk up. Who is He? Cade Horton is a right-handed, two-way, draft-eligible redshirt freshman for the Oklahoma Sooners. He's less two-way now and more pitcher, but that's really ambitious to say about a guy with all of 53 2/3 collegiate innings under his belt (as opposed to 168 plate appearances). Horton, though, took the world by storm by dominating in the College World Series. Years prior, a post-draft performance like that propels him to the top of the 2023 mock drafts. But because the draft is later now, Omaha heroics can pay immediate dividends. Horton, the prospect, is a 20-year-old, just over six foot, power arm who is less than a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery. He's possesses a mid-to-high 90s fastball with movement, a potentially devastating near-90 mph slider and a curveball that isn't great, but is there. Why Will the Twins Draft Him? The upside is incredible and this meteoric rise didn't come from nowhere. He was a potential first-day pick in 2020, but had an enormous price tag. Now healthy and given the opportunity, he's everything scouts believed he could be. It's no secret the Twins are led by a group that cherishes pitching - and if you don't believe that, go look at prospect lists from the mid-2010s - and Horton may have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the entire draft, college or pro. Horton, like Connor Prielipp, just needs an extended opportunity to show that, when and if healthy, he can be one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Why the Twins Won't Draft Him? 52 2/3 college innings. About 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery. Bonus demands that don't seem to have come down from when he was a high schooler. Putting your faith in a 6' 1" pitcher to be a frontline guy... Want me to go on? There's a number of reasons to not draft him, but the reality is that you can find warts on every prospect. A wise baseball man once told me that "players get told their whole lives what they can't do, we're drafting players based on what they can do" and what Horton can do - albeit in a small sample size - is very impressive. The mention of the price tag in almost every draft report doesn't go unnoticed and may mark Horton as a prime example of someone who is going to drop a little and then sign for way over slot. Could a team like the Royals have a replay of their 2013 draft? One that saw them draft Hunter Dozier at #8, pay him mid-first round money, only to turn around and give 34th overall pick Sean Manaea the fifth biggest bonus of the draft? Horton, in this example, is Manaea... and I would guess not the Royals given they just traded the prime pick (35) to make this happen. Do the Twins get crafty with #8 (Jett Williams and $3.2 million?) and then play the waiting game on Horton at #48 (and $4 million?), because that would be quite a feat. (And is completely conjecture before anyone flies off the handle.) What do you do? Interest in Horton or just a flat pass? View full article

It happens all the time. As soon as the the Mets got a whiff that Rocker might tumble out of the top 5 last year, there was an offer of $6 million. His reps then told teams, "our price tag is $6m." As you start to hear of teams being "out" on guys, some times it has to do with their ability. But I'd guess oftentimes it has to do with money. Part of the area scouts job is to know what it's going to cost to get sign the player they scouted. That's why it's pretty uncommon to not get top-10 round guys signed. And when you see it, it's usually due to medicals. The Twins had an agreement in place with Kyle Cody almost immediately, but when he underwent his physical, there was something the Twins didn't like. So much is done behind the scenes and before the draft and teams want to stretch every dollar as far as it can go. If you didn't partake in the "backroom shenanigans", you'd be putting yourself at a severe disadvantage. When Mark Prior fell to the Pirates and didn't sign, there was definitely a team behind them that thought they were getting Prior at an agreed-upon price.

The latest mock featured here is a dual mock draft done by Jamie Cameron and me. We alternated back and forth of the Top 30 selections on this upcoming weekend's draft. Note: We completed this mock draft about week ago and would probably do it differently today. 1.) Orioles - Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan (GA) HS - I’m not going to overthink or overplay this if I’m the Orioles I’m taking the best prospect and the most exciting prospect. They could get creative, certainly, with their almost-$17 million-bonus pool and a bevy of early picks (1, 33, 42, 67, 81), but they’d have to be absolutely positive that they could push the guys they want to them and I think there’s too much risk in that. (JN) 2.) Diamondbacks - Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater (OK) HS - It looks likely to be between whoever falls here out of Jones and Holliday. Holliday is widely considered to have one of the best swings in the draft and has had an exceptional spring. If it’s not Holliday, the Diamondbacks might consider one of the other elite high school bats. (JC) 3.) Rangers - Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech - I think the Rangers would prefer to take Holliday and are really hoping the Orioles cut a deal and Jones drops to second, leaving Holliday in their laps, but after t,hat I have to go the college route. You have to go all the way back to 2003 (John Danks) to find the Rangers taking a prep player in the Top 10, which shows a clear preference in taking a college player. (JN) 4.) Pirates - Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly - Lee has an increasing range, even reaching the Twins at eight in a recent mock draft. Lee’s hit tool represents one of surest things in this draft class, and possible savings over the prep bats that the Pirates might be interested in. (JC) 5.) Nationals - Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy - Personally, I’d love to see the Nationals go with Berry here, which guarantees one of the Twins top few assumed choices falls to eight, but for the sake of this exercise and that some people absolutely rave about Green, this is the direction I’m going. (JN) 6.) Marlins - Temarr Johnson, SS, Mays HS, Atlanta - Maybe the best pure hitter in the entire draft class. Number six is probably the floor for Johnson. This would be an amazing get for the Marlins here. (JC) 7.) Cubs - Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC - I think the Cubs draft board and the Twins draft board probably look pretty similar in that they’d be elated to take either Johnson or Collier (or Green, if he happens to slide). 8.) Twins - Jacob Berry, CI, LSU - I have to admit I don’t love this pick. I’m married to the hope of a top seven talent falling to the Twins at eight. With most mock drafts and big boards relying on consensus talent, we don’t have a ton of information about how the Twins view those top seven players. Berry, Neto, and Cross have been the college hitters most heavily linked to the Twins. While Berry is a little positionless, a switch-hitter with plus hit and plus power is too good to pass up here. (JC) 9.) Royals - Brock Porter, RHP, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (MI) HS - This marks the fourth straight year the Royals have had a Top 10 pick. They’ve hit three of the four demographics (just not college pitcher), so it’s possible they round it out with Connor Prielipp. Porter is the top healthy prep pitcher and has been frequently connected to Kansas City. (JN) 10.) Rockies - Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech - The Rockies have been primarily linked to college bats. In this scenario, Gavin Cross is a great option. Likely a corner outfielder long-term, he has put up elite exit velocities all spring. (JC) 11.) Mets - Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama - The Mets will pick again soon and I’ve long thought they’d get a pitcher with one and a hitter with the other. With the next two teams more likely to select a pitcher and many hitters still left, I went the pitcher route. (JN) 12.) Tigers - Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas - The teens are where things will get even less predictable. Crawford (son of Carl) has been moving up boards recently. Predictably, Crawford is an elite runner with a solid hit tool and projectable power. (JC) 13.) Angels - Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt/Tri-City (Frontier League) - Rocker is going to go in the first round and maybe this is too early, but the Angels need to get competitive in a hurry and Rocker could help the major league team considerably sooner than a swing-for-the-fence high school pitcher. (JN) 14.) Mets - Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech - The Mets are in a unique position with two top fifteen picks. Jung has fallen a little due to fading a little at the end of the season and being a defensive tweener. Zoom out and focus on his .468 OBP and 20% BB% throughout his collegiate career and there’s plenty to be excited by. (JC) 15.) Padres - Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford (GA) HS - Good value on the top prep pitcher before he went down with an elbow injury. The Padres have never been afraid to take a risk. (JN) 16.) Guardians - Zach Neto, SS, Campbell - It looks less and less likely Neto will make it this far. Recent mock drafts have him going as high as seven to the Cubs. A good defender with a plus arm and a good offensive skill set is too good to pass up here. (JC) 17.) Phillies - Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage (FL) HS - Barriera shut it down after his regular season to prepare for the draft and it hasn’t hurt his draft stock at all. He may be in play to be the first high school pitcher selected. (JN) 18.) Reds - Daniel Susac, C, Arizona - There’s some pretty good steam for Susac to Cincinnati. Susac has put up good number in a power five conference for two consecutive seasons. He projects for solid defense, good power, and a low on-base percentage. (JC) 19.) A’s - Dylan Beavers, OF, California - The A’s are sticking close to home, opting for a California-grown player in the first round for the third straight year. (JN) 20.) Braves - Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State - We’re getting into educated guesses here (maybe just guesses). The Braves have been linked to a number of college pitchers. Hjerpe has two secondary offerings that may develop into excellent pitches. That may offset his mediocre fastball. (JC) 21.) Mariners - Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison - A rough early season dimmed a once very bright chance that DeLauter went off the board in the Top 10. Mariners have a track record of taking college hitters and this could be a great value. (JN) 22.) Cardinals - Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall Heath HS (Texas) - This is a little lower than Williams is being taken in most mocks (10-15 range). Williams has excellent tools but will need time to develop. He’s just 5’8”, but has drawn comparisons to Alex Bregman. (JC) 23.) Blue Jays - Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee - The Blue Jays take a college bat here. (JN) 24.) Red Sox - Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida - The Red Sox have gone hard after good hit tools recently (Mayer, Casas). Here they grab one of the better outfielders in college baseball. (JC) 25.) Yankees - Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen (NV) HS - There isn’t any steam here, but if Snelling were to fall, the Yankees seem like a team that would meet higher demands. (JN) 26.) White Sox - Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga - There are a ton of interesting arms in this range in the first round. The White Sox like power arms. Hughes has the potential to be a really good one. (JC) 27.) Brewers - Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma - The Brewers seem most likely to go with a college pitcher. Horton helped him immensely on the biggest stage at the College World Series. (JN) 28.) Astros - Blake Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee - Tidwell has some of the best stuff of any college pitcher in the draft but was limited this season by a shoulder injury. He’s one of the first-round prospects with the widest selection ranges. (JC) 29.) Rays - Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy - The Rays say “no so fast” to the teams hoping the highly-ranked prep would fall to them and they could use some savings. The Rays love arms and they got a good one. (JN) 30.) Giants - Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee - Other teams won’t like playing against Gilbert. Opposing fans won’t like Gilbert. The Stillwater native had one of the best seasons of any college hitter and has been linked as high as eighth overall with the Twins. (JC) What do you think of our mock draft of the first round? Who will get more selections correct? Which picks are most wrong? Discuss in the COMMENTS today. View full article

I'd encourage everyone to take a shot at their own 10-round mock. I put the rankings of those four sites to try to make where guys are coming off the board as realistic as possible. So if a guy was ranked in the Top 35 on all four or three of those four publications, they weren't options at 48. I tried to give myself other guidelines too. Going in, my intention was to take a college and high school player with my first two picks. Originally, I had Jett Williams and falling college pitcher Peyton Pallette at 48. The one name that never changed was Dom Keegan, because he's a really good bat with a chance to stick behind the plate. I thought getting a catcher was important, but wanted to swing for the fences on developing the defensive side while getting an existing hitter. I did want to add some left-handed pitchers, but everyone of them that was in my range to draft were always pitchability/low-ceiling lefties that didn't do anything for me. Not drafting *any shortstops* wasn't intentional, in fact, one iteration had me taking three (Williams, Nazier Mule and Aiva Arquette). Obviously the benefit of hindsight while doing this exercise is really nice. Don't like it? Start over. And that's not at all how it really works, obviously. Clark Elliott, an outfielder from Michigan, checks all the boxes to be drafted by the Twins and was on the list until the very end. Taking Cross eliminated the need, in my opinion, of taking another college outfielder. I do think the top 10 is going to be very heavy pitching. I'd set the o/u at 7. So drafting a catcher, shortstop and center fielder leaves a small chance to take a pure hitter. Of course, this is all very speculative so we might see something completely different play out.

Keith Law posted his third mock draft and there were some juicy tidbits of information that should make Twins fans (cautiously) optimistic. View full video

Jamie Cameron and Jeremy Nygaard put their first-round mock together, alternating draft choices for the Top 30 picks. View full video

I get the need for a catcher and I mocked that the Twins take one in the Top 10 rounds. It's certainly a possibility they use a higher pick - like they did with Jeffers - where they see something that they like and take a guy a lot higher than other boards have him. They've also commonly taken players and later moved them behind the plate, guys like Caleb Hamilton and Andrew Bechtold. I don't know anything about the Twins and Dom Keegan in particular, but he's a perfect example of the type of player the Twins may (over)value. If they view him as someone who can stick behind the dish, they could take him much earlier. It's clear the Twins lack high-quality depth; look at the Fangraphs top 40 and see it includes no catchers. But then they have a section called "Loads of Catching Depth," where they highlight five different catching prospects in the system, so there is hope. Plus, it wouldn't shock me at all to see the Twins extend Gary Sanchez and lock him and Jeffers in as the catching duo for the next handful of years.