Jeremy Nygaard

This would be, in my opinion, one of the most ideal scenarios. If the Marlins are really out on him and the Cubs aren't likely to take him, that would be huge... but I still think the Pirates make sense.

It might be wishful thinking, hoping that Termarr Johnson falls to the Twins at #8. But if he did, would it be possible to pass on a player that Baseball America says is, "one of the most advanced pure hitters to come out of high school since... Joe Mauer"? I think not. Who Is He? Termarr Johnson is a prep infielder from Mays High School in Atlanta, Georgia. While it is likely that Johnson is drafted as a shortstop, his future home is expedited to be second base. A bit undersized (5' 8", 195), you're not buying the Arizona State commit for his glove. You're getting him because you believe that his left-handed bat is as good as advertised. And it is one of the most advertised tools in all of the draft. Why the Twins Will Draft Him The Twins have taken bat-first players a few times under the leadership of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Termarr Johnson is a high-ceiling bat first player. MLB.com wrote that "one scout gave him a double Hall of Famer comparison by calling him a combination of Wade Boggs' plate discipline and Vladimir Guerrero Sr.'s bat-to-ball skills." Such lofty comparisons are really unfair, but that should give you an idea of the type of ceiling that you'd get by drafting Johnson. It would be easy to peg a smaller guy as a slap hitter, but that's not Johnson either. Baseball America sums it all up by saying that Johnson "has the rare amateur combination of excellent bat-to-ball skills, an advanced approach at the plate, impressive pitch recognition and more power than you’d expect given his frame, thanks to excellent bat speed and precise barrel accuracy." MLB.com suggests that 25-30 home runs is a possibility. Could you even imagine? Why the Twins Won't Draft Him In the Collier profile, I wrote that the Twins wouldn't draft Collier only if he's gone or if a higher-rated prospect fell to them. It's completely my opinion, but I think Johnson might be the only (possibly available) player ranked higher than Collier. Sure, Druw Jones and Jackson Holliday are universally ranked higher, but the chances of either of them falling are slim to none. The chance of Johnson falling is certainly slim, but there is an avenue to where it happens. The other thing that should be mentioned is that that Johnson just committed to Arizona State recently. It's not unusual for highly-rated prep prospects to be committed to a college, but that usually happens much earlier in the high school career. I'm not questioning his signability. I think it's a 99.99% chance he goes pro. Maybe his representation suggested he commit to give him some leverage, I don't know. How highly do you rank Johnson? View full article

The Twins-only 10-round Mock Draft was a late addition to the 2022 Plan. During my first run covering the draft at TwinsDaily, it was an annual staple. It was always fun and looking back sparked some good memories. The inaugural Twins-mock was posted in 2014. Nick Gordon (Round 1) and Max Murphy (Round 9) were hits. But only three (including Gordon) ever made a major league appearance. There were two more hits in 2015 (Kyle Cody and Trey Cabbage), but the story here is the other names that I drafted. Dillon Tate hasn’t lived up to the high draft status, but he’s been a productive reliever. Logan Allen has bounced around a little bit over his four season in the MLB. Joey Bart probably wouldn’t have signed in the sixth round. (He was drafted in the 27th round.) Bart became the second overall pick in 2018. I was taking Jake Cronenworth in the seventh round - which was where he was selected - but as a pitcher. Cronenworth went on to finish runner-up in the 2020 Rookie of the Year race and made the All-Star game in 2021. My streak of multiple correct picks came to an end in 2016, when I only correctly predicted Alex Kirilloff. Will Smith went much higher in real-life (deservedly so). Daulton Jefferies was in the A’s starting rotation before getting injured. Keegan Akin has made the majors. (And I’ve hit on pretty much everyone to play in Baltimore’s bullpen.) As has Stephen Nogosek with the Mets. My final attempt came all the way back in 2017, when I incorrectly projected the Twins to select Kyle Wright. After a mostly down major league career, Wright has had a really good 2022. My streak continued as I correctly pegged Blayne Enlow going to the Twins, though he hasn’t debuted due to injury. Riley Adams (Washington) has made the majors, as has Michael Baumann with, you guessed it, Baltimore! Now after a four-year absence, I’ll see if I can correctly predict any of the Twins first 10 picks. It’s 10 picks because, despite forfeiting one to sign Carlos Correa, the Twins received a competitive balance pick. Note: This is my third attempt after not liking my first two projections. And that starts with my first pick. Round 1 (Pick 8 - $5,439,500): Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech. Cross has been the name most frequently connected to the Twins at #8. I think the Twins would be very likely to take almost any of the Top 7 names if they fell to them, though Termarr Johnson and Cam Collier seem to be the two they’d be happiest to see fall. The other side of that coin is that the Mets are lurking at #11 and may try to force someone to slide down to them. (BA: 10; MLB: 10; ESPN: 10; Athletic: 10) Round 2 (Pick 48 - $1,621,900): Jacob Miller, RHP, Liberty Union (Ohio) High School. When you take a high school pitcher early, you’re betting on upside. The floor is going to be low. Miller has a powerful arm as well as showing a feel for spinning the ball. Bonus points for being from the midwest. (BA: 34; MLB: 37; ESPN: 43; Athletic: 42) Comp Round B (Pick 68 - $1,001,500): Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Crowder JC. The Twins have added a number of guys who throw in the low-to-mid-90s and then they unlock a few more MPHs on their fastball. Misiorowski already throws over 100, so maybe it’s time the Twins take a hard thrower and help refine his command and secondary pitches. (BA: 68; MLB: 78; ESPN: NR; Athletic: 95) Round 4 (Pick 114 - $533,100): Henry Williams, RHP, Duke. The first of two Duke picks, Williams just had Tommy John surgery in December and will probably require a dip into the bonus pool to get this done. Hasn’t thrown a ton of college innings, but has shown plenty of upside. May bet on himself and return to Duke for another season. (BA: 179; MLB: 81; ESPN: 109; Athletic: 62) Round 5 (Pick 144 - $398,200): Dom Keegan, C/1B, Vanderbilt. Keegan has a great bat and a chance to stick behind the plate. But there’s a wide range on where he could go. It’s tough to get a read on “seniors” as they have an option to go back to school for an extra (COVID) year. (BA: 227; MLB: 97; ESPN: 128; Athletic: 76) Round 6 (Pick 174 - $301,000): Marcus Johnson, RHP, Duke. Johnson moved from a bullpen role to the rotation this year for the Blue Devils. He has a mid-to-high 90s fastball and a slider with a high-spin rate. With less than 130 college innings under his belt, there is reason to believe that Johnson’s trajectory could continue to climb. (BA: 129; MLB: 139; ESPN: NR; Athletic: NR) Round 7 (Pick 204 - $235,400): Michael Knorr, RHP, Coastal Carolina. Knorr looks the part of a starting pitcher but is somewhat of a project. He’s equipped with a big-time fastball, yet lacks great command of it and doesn’t have great feel for throwing a breaking ball. The Twins have had success in leveling up college pitchers recently and should continue to roll the dice in that area. (BA: 128; MLB: 176; ESPN: NR; Athletic: NR) Round 8 (Pick 234 - $187,700): Steven Zobac, RHP, Cal. New to full-time pitching, Zobac looked the part after moving exclusively to the mound. Equipped with a low-90s fastball and a good slider, there’s still potential to develop a third pitch and continue to improve while keeping his focus on the mound. (BA: 252; MLB: 241; ESPN: NR; Athletic: NR) Round 9 (Pick 264 - $164,000): Alex Kachel, 3B, Fresno State. Instead of spending the 8th overall pick on a great bat with a questionable defensive home, we’re going that direction in the 9th round. Kachel can hit, but can he field? (BA: 228; MLB: NR; ESPN: NR; Athletic: NR) Round 10 (Pick 294 - $153,700): Derek Diamond, RHP, Ole Miss. Diamond really struggled this past year - allowing multiple earned runs in 14 or 16 appearances. But he showed plenty of signs of having draftable characteristics last year. If a team is able to unlock that, they’ve found a prospect. (BA: 212; MLB: NR; ESPN: NR; Athletic: NR) View full article

That's how I feel too. But Callis has him going to the Twins at 8 in his newest mock.

This is less true now, but over a relatively good chunk of time, almost no major league shortstops were drafted from a four-year college. In fact, at the time I read that, Brandon Crawford was the only guy that stuck, all the other starting shortstops were high school or international. Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner have helped overcome that stigma a bit, but old beliefs die hard in the scouting ranks. That's not to say that Williams has a better chance to stick at shortstop than Neto, but Williams' future is at shortstop, then center field, then second base... and Neto's is at shortstop, then second base. Williams is certainly the premium athlete of the two and has the higher ceiling.

Cam Collier has become one of the most popular names among Twins fans as they look forward to the 2022 MLB Draft in just over a week. Collier's route to draft-eligibility is a rare one for sure, but it seems to have worked out pretty well for the teenager. Over the next two weeks, we're going to be providing you with profiles of 10 players the Twins could take with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft on July 17. Who is He? Cam Collier, son of former MLB player Lou Collier, is a JUCO player from Chipola (FL). But that's not nearly the whole story. Collier was originally in the Class of 2023 class, but graduated from high school earlier and enrolled early in a junior college to make him draft-eligible a year earlier. (Sound familiar? Bryce Harper took a similar path.) Collier, who is committed to Louisville, was destined to be one of the prospects of 2023. But now that's had a strong season at a higher level, not to mention making an appearance in the Cape Cod League this summer, Collier's raised his prospect status about as much as anyone could have imagined he would. Why the Twins Will Draft Him Collier offers all the traits that the Twins find very appealing. At Chipola, Collier, with his sweet left-handed swing, produced a .333/.419/.537 slash line. He hit eight home runs and 12 doubles. He almost walked (25 times) as much as he struck out (33 times). He's doing this against guys two, three, four years older than him. Producing at an advanced level despite being only 17? The analytic-driven Twins must adore that. Playing for the Cotuit Kettleers in the Cape Cod League, Collier wasn't as good. He started out with three hits in his first three games before going to the Draft Combine. He returned a week later and got another hit in his first game back. At that point, he had a .333/.500/.333 slash line with four walks and three strikeouts. But hit a cold streak after that, finishing one for his last 11. Defensively, Collier had the glove and the arm to stick at third base. He's athletic enough that he could play in the outfield if he happened to be blocked. And even if fills out so - as 17-year-old eventually do - he has the offensive profile that he could play first base. And not for nothing, the Twins have taken players with major league bloodlines before. If drafted by the Twins, he would immediately jump into their top tier of prospects. Why the Twins Won't Draft Him Quite simply, it's either because he's gone or because the draft fell in such an unforeseen way that a higher-rated prospect (and I'm not convinced there's many, if any) fell to them. Or - and there's no reason to believe this is true - he's given the Twins such a lofty bonus demand that they can't meet it. There's also no reason to believe the Twins wouldn't be elated if Collier fell to them. He checks nearly all of the boxes. Is there any way you pass on Collier if he's available at #8? View full article

Who? That's probably the first thing you said when you saw the name above. And that's fair. I haven't seen a mock yet that had the Twins selecting the prep infielder from Texas. But that doesn't mean it's not a name you should have on your radar. Over the next two weeks, we're going to be providing you with profiles of 10 players the Twins could take with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft on July 17. Who is He? Jett Williams is an 18-year-old prep shortstop/center fielder from Rockwall-Heath (TX) High School. While Keith Law (11), Baseball America (15), MLB (21), and ESPN (25) all have him outside the Top 10, there are some characteristics in the ball player that the Twins really, really like. At 5-8, Williams, a Mississippi State commit, is undersized and that is likely to give some teams pause. But he's fast, can hit and is almost a lock to play up the middle defensively. Why the Twins Will Draft Him The Twins value the traits that Williams possesses and though they've never used such a high pick on a player of this stature, scouting director Sean Johnson has raved about both Dustin Pedroia and Alex Bregman, from his days as a crosschecker. What isn't to like, really? Baseball America calls his hand speed "eye-opening." MLB.com says he "rarely swings and misses." He's fast. Everyone cites his "plus-speed" and while he might not be Buxton Fast, BA says it's not uncommon for normal singles to become doubles and normal doubles to become triples (or "show off doubles"). Think Luis Arraez, but right-handed and faster. Think a faster version of Brian Dozier, without the magnificent hair and 40-home run pull power. There's an exciting ceiling here. Why the Twins Won't Draft Him He's small. He's not the prototypical athletic marvel that top picks typically are. Look at Byron Buxton. Look at Carlos Correa. If you saw those guys on the street, you might mistake them for professional football players of the American variety. Williams looks more like a European football player. There are players that fit the "Twins mold" much better. Big, powerful dudes that project to hit 30 homers a year and end up in a corner. And not that it's a reason to not draft him - the Twins haven't put a huge emphasis on defense while drafting - but there are some that don't know if Williams can stick at shortstop. No one is putting a plus grade on his arm and most shortstops have, at minimum, an above average arm. The most glowing endorsement of his arm was Baseball America calling it "solid average." MLB.com did mention that his shoulder bothered him during the summer and that's why his arm is considered what it is. But no one is doubting his ability to play an up-the-middle position. Given all that you've learned now, is Williams someone you could consider with the eighth pick? View full article

We'll be taking a deeper dive into 10 prospects over the last two weeks leading up to the draft. Who are you hoping the Twins take? Who are you hoping they avoid? View full video

All this talk about catching, I'd keep my eye on Vanderbilt C/1B Dominic Keegan. He's got the qualities in a hitter the Twins like and the Twins typically believe they can develop the defensive side. He could definitely be an option at 48 or 68.

If you've been following mock drafts at all over the last couple of the months, Jacob Berry, a switch-hitter from LSU, is a name that you're familiar with. Let's take a look at both why the Twins might draft him and also why they might not. Over the next two weeks, we're going to be providing you with profiles of 10 players the Twins could take with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft on July 17. Who is He? Jacob Berry is a plus hitter and a near-consensus Top 8 prospect in this draft. In their most-recent rankings, MLB.com, Baseball America, and ESPN all have Berry ranked #7. The lone, biggest dissenter is The Athletic's Keith Law, who ranks Berry all the way down at 27. We'll get into why there is a big discrepancy a little later. Berry started his collegiate career at Arizona and finished it at LSU. As a college hitter, Berry put up a .360/.450/.655 (1.105) slash line over two years, hitting 32 home runs. In this past year at LSU, he walked 27 times compared to only 22 strikeouts. Why the Twins Will Draft Him The Twins love hitters with power. Plain and simple, they have a history of taking guys with a valuable bat. In 2020, the Twins took Aaron Sabato who was considered to have some of the biggest raw power in the entire draft. Two years prior, it was Trevor Larnach who flew into the first round after showing off his power at Oregon State. In 2016, it was Alex Kirilloff who was a prospect with exciting power potential. If you sense a pattern, you're not alone: In even years, the Twins are going to take a college hitter with a power profile. Jacob Berry is the draft prospect who fits that profile better than anyone. And if the Twins board is anything like that of the national pundits, it makes perfect sense. Why the Twins Won't Draft Him This is where it gets interesting for two really good reasons. First, unlike the three hitters mentioned above, Berry does not have an obvious future home defensively. He's been tried at third base and many aren't convinced he can stick there. He's spent time at both outfield corners and there are concerns that he can even stick there. That leaves first base and DH (and the reason that Law is so low on him). It's relatively unheard of to draft a first-base only player in the Top 10. And given the lack of success that Sabato has had, is it possible that the Twins don't want to take the risk of missing on a hitter again? The second reason that the Twins don't draft him is - despite their affinity to draft college hitters - they haven't gone this route with any of their recent Top 13 picks 2019: Keoni Cavaco (13th overall) 2017: Royce Lewis (1st overall) 2015: Tyler Jay (6th overall) 2014: Nick Gordon (5th overall) 2013: Kohl Stewart (4th overall) 2012: Byron Buxton (2nd overall) With the exception of Tyler Jay, all of those selections were prep players, and besides Stewart, they were all prep hitters. Taking a college hitter with a low floor doesn't jive with their habit of taking big swings with higher picks. What do you think? Would you take Berry if you were making the call? View full article

Hard to say at this point. He didn't use it much in the limited amount of innings he threw collegiately. He'll be FB/SL first.

Green went much higher (third, I think), so it was Prielipp, Berry or Neto. (Both of those other guys dropped another ten picks I believe.) I took Prielipp not because he's connected as much to the Twins as those other guys, but because I think he has the highest ceiling of anyone else available. And the floor of a left-handed pitcher that will be mid-90s with a nasty slider and a usable changeup is also pretty high.

I took part in the Prospects Live Mock Draft last night and listened to them rave about Green. In fact, at one point one of them said, "I know it says crazy, but I think a good Green comp is a more physical Byron Buxton." They also talked about how he struggled early and since he was so well known teams may have stopped scouting him hard before he turned it around. One guy made the comment that he watched Green go 0-8 with five strikeouts but still came away impressed. So maybe I'm selling him short too.

Jeremy runs through his latest mock draft for the upcoming MLB draft in July. View full video

We're closing in on two weeks until the draft kicks off. We'll be posting almost-daily articles to help you get ready. Tonight: it's our second mock draft! Let's kick it off. Without further adieu... TwinsDaily/Brewer Fanatic Mock Draft v.2.0. 1.) Orioles - Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly - There’s still so much uncertainty around what the Orioles may do, but, for me, Lee makes the most sense given their current set-up. They have their best prospects either in the show or on the doorstep and Lee would be able to join that group within the next couple of years. (Previous: Lee) 2.) Diamondbacks - Druw Jones, OF, Georgia prep - If the Orioles take Jones first or cut a deal with Termarr Johnson, then Jackson Holliday makes sense. But in this scenario, Jones has to go. (Previous: Jones) 3.) Rangers - Jackson Holliday, SS, Oklahoma prep - The Rangers will be happy if Holliday falls. They also would be thrilled to draft Kevin Parada if Holliday is gone. (Previous: Holliday) 4.) Pirates - Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC - Collier has done all he can to fly up the board and though the Pirates seem to have their left side of the infield figured out, they take the best player available. (Previous: Cole Young) 5.) Nationals - Jacob Berry, DH, LSU - Interestingly enough, after being connected to Parada for so long, Berry has become the front-runner. (Previous: Kevin Parada) 6.) Marlins - Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech - Marlins could go with Parada or either of the two best high-school hitters left (Johnson or Green). (Previous: Elijah Green) 7.) Cubs - Termarr Johnson, 2B, Georgia prep - Johnson may have the widest range of outcomes for any of the players projected to go in the Top 7, which makes you wonder even more about the Orioles (or someone else) cutting a deal with him. (Previous: Johnson) 8.) Twins - Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy - While it seems like the Top 7 names are relatively set (and that includes Green), the Nationals interest in Berry pushes that list to eight names and sets Green at the Twins doorstep. They also seem more destined to land a college hitter, but that top tier has been plucked from. If given the choice (right now), I’d take Connor Prielipp over Green, but I’m not making this decision (thankfully!) (Previous: Collier) 9.) Royals - Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama - I had Prielipp at 14 last time (and climbing) and I don’t think the climbing is done. (Previous: Brock Porter) 10.) Rockies - Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech - The Rockies are in a great position to take BPA and Cross is getting a lot of love in the Top 10. (Previous: Berry) 11.) Mets - Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech - The Mets will select two players in the next four picks, so they have loads of flexibility, including taking a lower-ranked player here, signing them for underslot to protect themselves from eventually losing this compensation pick and being able to push another player down to them at 14. Here though, they get the best bat available. (Previous: Jung) 12.) Tigers - Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee - We’ve really entered into the land where anything’s possible (i.e. welcome to the draft, pitchers!) But we're still going hitter here. (Previous: Susac) 13.) Angels - Brock Porter, RHP, Michigan - The odds suggest the Angels go pitcher her, but they could go with either a college or a prep one. Projecting a prep pitcher anywhere is risky; Porter is currently committed to Clemson. (Previous: Prielipp) 14.) Mets - Brandon Barriera, RHP, Florida prep - Whatever the Mets do (or don’t do) with these two Top-15 picks is likely to be one of the main headliners of the night. (Previous: Cross) 15.) Padres - Dylan Lesko, P, Georgia prep - This is still a pick that makes a ton of sense, even though the irony of having the Mets select a player with a repaired elbow is not lost on me. (Previous: Lesko) 16.) Guardians - Daniel Susac, C, Arizona - Cleveland always seems to unearth great pitchers later in the draft, so instead of going that route, they’ll take the second best catcher. (Previous: Chase DeLauter) 17.) Phillies -Robby Snelling, LHP, Nevada prep - Snelling is moving up board and this is the Phillies favorite demographic, but will Snelling choose LSU and it’s new pitching coach over going pro? (Previous: Barriera) 18.) Reds - Cole Young, SS, Pennsylvania prep - The Reds don’t seem to be going for it, so taking a high school middle infielder seems about right. (Previous: Justin Crawford) 19.) A’s - Zach Neto, SS, Campbell - Just like I said the first time I mocked this connection, “Yep, that makes sense.” (Previous: Neto) 20.) Braves - Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga - Hughes could go earlier for sure, but the Braves have gone college pitching for a few years, so Hughes’ slide ends here. (Previous: Hughes) 21.) Mariners - Justin Crawford, OF, Nevada prep - Crawford has really impressed lately and could hear his name come off the board much earlier. (Previous: Blade Tidwell) 22.) Cardinals - Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt/Indy ball - We’re still not seeing a ton of Rocker in mock drafts, but he’s been pitching again and well enough to hear his name called on the first day. (previous: Snelling) 23.) Blue Jays - Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida - No change here. Blue Jays can add another solid bat to their stable. (Previous: Thompson) 24.) Red Sox - Tucker Toman, 3B, South Carolina prep - Red Sox have had success with prep hitters on a number of occasions. (Previous: Jett Williams) 25.) Yankees - Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison - If the Yankees were drafting for need, they certainly wouldn’t take an outfielder. But teams should never draft for need. (Previous: Hjerpe) 26.) White Sox - Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee - A midwest kid finds his way back home (sorta). (Previous: Beck) 27.) Brewers - Jett Williams, SS, Texas prep - An undersized infielder who is committed to Mississippi State. Williams is going to get by with quick, clean actions. (Previous: Rocker) 28.) Astros - Jud Fabian, OF, Florida - When I really like a match, I have a hard time changing it. (Previous: Fabian) 29.) Rays - Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma - No one improved their stock more in the last few weeks than Horton. (Previous: Carson Whisenhunt) 30.) Giants - Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State - You could see any number of college pitchers going in the back half of the first round. Hjerpe is perhaps one of the safest of them all. (Previous: Peyton Pallette) There it is. What do you think? View full article

I don't think the Twins pass on Collier. But I think there are three other teams thinking they won't pass on him either.