gunnarthor

One thing to help Mauer will be that, by the time he's on the ballot, the HOF will have gone quite a while since it last inducted a catcher. (Assuming Pudge gets in within his first two years). Around the time he's on the ballot, there will be a strong push to put in Yadier Molina b/c "greatest defensive catcher" stuff but Mauer will look good in that comparison. A negative for him will be that the last few catchers inducted had a lot more longevity behind the plate.

The Twins have a pretty good closer/set-up tandem already with Perkins, May and Jepsen. I think Burdi will pitch himself into that mix. Fien and Pressly can be solid guys. So really what they are looking for is a LH reliever and maybe a long man. The long man will probably be Nolasco. So, while another lefty would be nice, I think the Twins internal options are fine. I'd also be happy if we signed Clippard but I'm not going to freak out about not adding Bastardo.

Yep, he did. He's wrong.

I don't believe anyone suggested Hunter was a better candidate for the HOF than Edmonds (or Lofton). I certainly did not intend to suggest that, if it was me you think did that. I did say that on an uncrowded ballot, he might be able to stick around (unlike those two who were on crowded ballots). WAR is a bit interesting - by b-r it's about a 10 WAR difference while fWAR it's 25. I wonder if we'll ever move beyond WAR in grading our HOFers or move more toward it.

I think if I had to rank their chances I'd go Mauer, Santana, Hunter, Nathan. I think Mauer's got strong support with voters who like WAR and his 3 batting titles will impress more traditional voters. But he really could use a rebound season or two. I've complained about this before but the HOF should be more about HOF seasons than career numbers and Santana had an absolute HOF peak, he should be in. He probably won't get in but he should. I think Hunter will stick on the ballot for 10 years. He got 50 WAR which is borderline but he was also seen as a leader and a good guy by most of the voters who might reward his intangibles. He also managed a crap ton of hits and had very few bad years. I suppose on a crowded ballot he could drop off like Edmonds and Lofton did but by the time he's on the ballot I think a lot of the logjams will be cleared up. I don't think Nathan makes it. He was dominating in the regular season but horrible in the post season and he played in an era where a lot of closers put up video game numbers.

Yeah, Royals will still be the favorites but we'll see how their starting pitching goes. It could be just as bad or worse. Royals relief pitchers threw the 5th most innings last year in all of baseball (and first in the AL). They should be due for a bit of comedown just based on how good they were last year. But re-signing Gordon was really big for them.

If healthy, I think they are ok. The backend of Perkins, Jepsen and May are pretty good. I doubt they blow that many leads, which is the important part. I like Pressly more than most and I love Burdi, who I think ends up as a major piece in the end. I think the pen is better than Chicago, Detroit or Cleveland. Sure, I'd love to add Clippard or another arm but the main issue is getting more IP from the starters.

David Bromberg - I remember him. I used to have high hopes for him.

The Twins aren't using stop gaps. They might give one or two spots to a bullpen reclamation arm. So what? It's not like there's only 8 spots in a bullpen. The Twins, like most teams, will use a bunch of arms next season. Their principle bullpen arms aren't going to be scrap heap guys. Right now, we're arguing about the opening day LOOGY. They'll be fine.

Yeah, that could be true. I'm not going to be upset b/c we didn't get to pay 18m for Tony Sipp's age 32-34 seasons but I would be happy if he made a play for Storen or Clippard, too.

Well, sure, if we're only looking at the scrap heap - most of those other bullpen pieces were added from our own farm system and in trades, but that wasn't what this discussion was about. From 99-07 (Ryan's first run), his bullpen's were pretty much always awesome. He has the tools to create a pretty good bullpen again, even if he doesn't spend 18m on an arm.

The Twins got some pretty good seasons (at least as effective as Sipp's other years) out of bargain bin guys like Fien, Burton, Guerrier, Reyes, Boyer.

Sure, but Clippard isn't signing for 6m/yr (at least I don't think he is). If you're going to lock up a relief pitcher on a 3/18 deal, I think I'd want a better track record than Tony Sipp.

Doesn't Sipp himself contradict your argument? He sucked for years, Houston got him last year on a 1y/2.5m deal. Now he signed his big contract. There are a few bullpen arms that are constantly good but most relief pitchers can have some pretty good years followed by a pretty bad year, and vice versa. I don't think any of these 6m guys are necessarily sure things.

I think we're worrying a bit too much about the pen. Even if they don't grab anyone, they have some nice parts. May, Perkins and Jepsen are solid. Chargois, Meyer and Burdi (not on the 40 man) could be big arms. They have a bit of a clog in the rotation so someone from the Hughes, Gibson, Santana, Milone, Nolasco, Duffey group will probably be in the pen - and maybe two if Berrios makes the team. I actually like Pressly. Sure, they could use another lefty and a guy like Clippard or Storen would make the pen a lot better. But they have a good backend already. As to Span, I'd be ok with him. It would probably mean Buxton starts at AAA but if he's hitting .400 in six weeks, Span would be a good insurance against a Santana-like drop off for Rosario or replace a failed Sano experiment in right field. And if everything is working out, well, then we have the too much talent problem, which is a good problem to have. Plus, I always liked Span.

Let's ignore the PED debate. I've always been iffy on Raines. He had a great peak but it was really short. He only had 6 seasons that were really HOF worthy, I think. in 21 seasons, he had fewer 4 WAR seasons than Jack Morris and Keith Hernandez and same number as John Olerud, Brad Radke and Tony Oliva. I think his peak was just too short. That said, if you think Raines is a HOFer, I don't know how you could not vote for Nomar whose peak was much better - unless you're using the compiler method.

Of the list, Gordon's the easy answer - during a chat last year, a BP writer gave him a future 70 value and other writers defended it. He can stick at short and should be a good hitter. I really like him. Jay will be fine. Stewart is the most interesting prospect we have this year, IMHO. I'm very interested to see how he does and if he can improve on his strikeout numbers. I think this year will answer a lot of questions, one way or other. I'm not nearly as high on Gonsalves or Walker as others. I think the Twins have 4 pitchers who could be a #1 or #2 starter (stuff-wise) if things broke right - Berrios, Jay, Meyer and Stewart. Walker needs plate discipline badly. Of those not listed, I actually like Thrylos' mention of Melotakis but I think Burdi is the pitching answer. He'll be a big weapon in the ML pen by July.

The article addresses that a bit - "Inside-Edge credits major-league teams for saving 179 hits over what was expected with an excellent play as of Tuesday, while bad defense was blamed for allowing 156 hits that normally would be outs. But that seems like a drop in the bucket given that position players have had 76,112 total chances this season. Baseball’s best defensive team, the Houston Astros, has saved only 25 hits all season because of the skill of its defenders, according to Inside-Edge."

I think you have to be really careful with defensive stats - we talked a lot about this last year with the Hunter signing. Depending on what defensive stat you want to use, he might be good or bad - fangraphs UZR went from negative to positive last year while b-r went from positive to neutral. And a lot of people have warned about the reliability of one years worth of defensive data, as well. A WSJ article last year put a lot of this into perspective: "Inside-Edge, a baseball analytics company that provides data to major-league teams, brings a big-data approach to scouting. Instead of just using a spray chart to calculate a player’s defensive value, their scouts watch every single play from every single team—twice. And by taking positioning into account in grading the difficulty of plays, Inside-Edge scouts not only found that the range of many players was being overstated, but so too was the overall importance of defense in preventing runs. The major revelation: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill." I think Dozier's defense at second base is good enough - he passes the eye test but isn't a gold glover.

I think Rosario's the better player, period. He's a better defender and a much better bet to play a corner OF spot. Plus, he's a Molitor guy and the Twins soured on Hicks. And he's cheaper. Hicks on-base ability was good but it isn't enough absent some improvement elsewhere, which we haven't seen in 3 years. Now he could turn it around in NY - it's a nice park to hit in - but outside of July last year, he has never shown an ability to hit, especially against RHP.

I think there might be something to that. I know I read something about Molitor being a little upset/surprised at Hicks for requesting some days off down the stretch but I can't remember where I read that. In any event, I certainly don't think it was a horrible trade.

Aaron Hicks had one good month at the plate and hasn't been able to hit otherwise. He was blocking the best prospect in the game and his bat certainly won't play in a corner - where he'd block Sano, Rosario and Kepler. The Twins traded him away for what looks to be a nice solid catcher. Cripes, even Klaw liked the trade. Ryan did a good job.

I don't really have a problem with it. It's December. He should have some time off. It'll be a long season for him next year so he should be rested.

Every team has question marks - last year we were wondering if Hunter was a good signing, if Hicks could even be a good player and if Mauer could bounce back. We were terrified of a regression season from Hughes and Suzuki. We were sure that if we were going to be good it was because Danny Santana and Vargas showed that their rookie seasons weren't flukes. And we know how that turned out. And we should be ok again this year for the same reason we were ok last year - young players and depth. Last year, Rosario, Escobar, Sano and Duffey picked the team up. We still have some pretty solid depth that isn't projected (at this time) to be starters on opening day (or possibly even on the opening day roster) - Arcia, Vargas, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Burdi, Meyer etc. The Twins have some really nice talent - probably the most talent since either 06 or 2010 - in their projected lineup. The season won't go exactly as planned - they never do - but this team should be competing for the playoffs and the AL central next year. Should be fun.

Kepler will, and should, open the season in AAA. That will be the case no matter what other changes the Twins make this offseason.