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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I don't think so. I think he might go before 15 anyway. BA's most recent mock had him going #12 as a fast to the majors reliever. He's a first round talent but we said that about his brother (who every mock had going at 23 to Detroit) and he fell to the second round. If I'm the Twins, I do something else at 15 but would jump all over him if he fell like his brother at 56.
  2. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I'm not sure how much impact the PA has but they did take up the cause of both Aiken and Nix a few years back against the Astros.
  3. gunnarthor
    OK. Let's assume there are 15 elite guys and another 30 who deserve a 2m price tag or better. The Twins pick at 15 and again at 56. A bunch of teams have multiple picks before 56. The Padres have four. But the Reds, Atlanta, White Sox have three picks in the top 55. So, if there are 45 2m talents in this draft, they Twins might/should be able to get a solid pick at 15 and possibly 56 but it's unlikely that a 2m talent is sitting there at 73/74. I do think it makes sense to be prepared to pick a guy dropping at 73 and punt a few picks if needed but I don't like the idea of the Twins going cheap at 15 and 56 b/c, even if they do, I don't think the payoff would be worth it and there's no promise that one of those players would still be on the board. What might makes sense is saving a bit here and there and sign a "tough sign" HS arm like Gonsalves who took 500k or so overslot to sign or Cabbage who took 250k more. I expect there are a lot of HS arms who teams are fairly comfortable with knowing that the player really doesn't want to go to college so a few extra hundred grand could help albeit in not so sexy ways.
  4. gunnarthor
    Yes, they have 5.7m for their first 4 picks and I do think they could spread it around a bit but a lot of teams pick in between. The Twins shouldn't go too cheap at 15. But they could punt 76 and give 1.5 or so to both 56 and 73 or something like that. I guess I'm just not sure how many 2m talents are in this draft (or players holding out for that). My understanding was that this draft was somewhat shallow but large.
  5. gunnarthor
    That's not quite true. They got Cabbage in the 4th round last year. Kendrik and Wade both at slot last year. They did save money on their 5th round pick (IIRC) and used it to sign Cabbage and thought they saved money on Cody but he didn't sign.
  6. gunnarthor
    The Twins could sign a guy at 15 for 2.5 and grab the BPA at 56 and say "we'll give you 2m (the #56 slot plus a bit from 15 and our 7-10 picks) but the player doesn't have to respond. So the team would be left wondering if the guy at 56 will sign (and punting those picks if he doesn't) or play the draft straight. But I think it's probably a better plan to figure out your draft budget and get players that will fit it.
  7. gunnarthor
    The reason the Astros were able to get Cameron is because Bregman signed for nearly 1.5m less than slot and they punted their 7-10 picks for senior signs. The Twins could shave a bit off of #15 but it would still be hard to get a second guy for 3m or more. If the Twins sign get a guy a bit underslot at 15 for something like 2.5m, they'd save about 320k. At 56, they sign the sliding guy (hoping other teams passed on him and if Mannings tag is 3m it's unlikely that other teams would pass). The slot value of 56 is 1.14m so they'd need to come up with 1.86 or so. The value of their 7-10 picks is 710k. Generally, you give senior signs 10k that means they saved 670k for the #56 pick. Less than half way there.
  8. gunnarthor
    Nice but I'll throw out that Klaw has said that stats like fip for minor leaguers (esp A ball) isn't very useful. It's still probably more about the scouting then the stat line.
  9. gunnarthor
    Bummer about Berrios.
  10. gunnarthor
    Always fun, Jeremy. Reports have the Twins on the HS power arms. Do you have any sense of how they feel about Dakota Hudson or Zach Collins, if either was available at 15?
  11. gunnarthor
    One thing that I'd like to see the Twins look into is if they could trade for another teams supp first or second round pick. Obviously, most of the teams that have those picks are trying to stockpile minor league depth so are unlikely to move them but a few - Diamondbacks, Orioles, Pirates or Cleveland might be willing to make a win-now trade. And I'm also not sure if the Twins can swing a trade but last year the Diamondbacks basically sold Touki Toussant so maybe there would be a way to buy such a pick?
  12. gunnarthor
    Yeah, the Twins have 3 picks in the second round. For a while, they really hit on second round picks but it's been awhile. We'll see if this is the year Johnson gets something. The picks are #56, 73, 74. So there are certainly some interesting players who might be available - and the Twins might be able to save some money and get someone who has fallen at 56. Zach Jackson from Arkansas might be the relief pitcher drafted and converted to starter this year. And Zach Burdi. I forgot about him.
  13. gunnarthor
    Yeah, Benintendi might be the Aaron Nola of his draft. I don't think he slips as far if it was a redo but the question, if I remember correctly, wasn't about his bat it was more about his physical frame. He's short and has a weak arm. So his success in the low minors might not tell us quite as much. As for draft results, yeah, I wish Buxton and Berrios were tearing up the majors instead of AAA. But I don't think it means they won't. And the other guys are still a few years away - the problem when you draft HS players. I want the Twins to keep drafting the BPA and not worry about him being a college bat or a HS arm or whatnot.
  14. gunnarthor
    Let's see, since 2012, the Cubs and Twins have drafted near each other and had the same amount of 1st round picks 2012 - (Twins picking before Cubs) - Buxton, Berrios, Bard. Cubs - Alomra, Blackburn, Johnson. 2013 - (Twins picking after Cubs) Twins - Stewart. Cubs - Bryant. 2014 - (Twins picking after Cubs) Twins - Gordon. Cubs - Schwaber. 2015 - (Twins picking before Cubs) Twins - Jay. Cubs - Happ. Ranking these guys you'd place Buxton and Bryant at the top. After that, Bard and Blackburn are probably wash outs. Schwaber made the majors but suffered a really bad injury. The rest probably go (per mlb.com) Berrios, Jay, Happ, Alomra, Gordon, Stewart, Johnson. Obviously, the big difference is that Bryant is playing well in the majors but I'm not sure that means college hitters would have been better picks. For instance, in 2012, the best college bat was Zunino. In 2013, when the Twins picked, it would have been Colin Moran. In 2014 it would have been Michael Conforto. And last year it would have been Andrew Benintendi. Even with hindsight, I'm not sure the Twins would have picked any of those guys over their picks although some would be in the majors faster.
  15. gunnarthor
    Maybe this ties in with TRex's question but is there any sense of how the Twins view guys like Alec Hansen or Bobby Dalbec? Both were pre-season top 20 players but have fallen off b/c of rough seasons.
  16. gunnarthor
    Nice write-up.
  17. gunnarthor
    I thought Hunter's best attributes were keeping the team even after losses and preventing guys from pressing. I thought for a few weeks Sano really looked like he thought he needed to hit a home run. And Rosario has been pressing all year. Perhaps Hunter knew a better way to communicate with young guys that struggled than Molitor has - hell, I'm not sure Molitor really struggled like these guys have. But Hunter, who did struggle, might be better able to walk them through it. Like Mike, I'm not sure what that's worth but I do think it was real. In any event, the players will eventually have to figure it out themselves. My guess is that eventually this team acquires Sano's swag but it might take longer than I thought.
  18. gunnarthor
    I agree that the Twins should keep Buxton down for at least another month. Let him dominate the level for a while.
  19. gunnarthor
    I hope the team doesn't rush Buxton back. He needed at bats so let's get him some more at bats so he's comfortable.
  20. gunnarthor
    Just looking at mlb.com's list does suggest that the Twins could pretty easily draft a catcher in the first 3 rounds. I believe they have five picks inside the top 95. But it also looks like there might be a number of potential high school arms that they could focus on instead. Or they could nab another Trey Cabbage like kid - I think Cole Stobbe would be a fun pick. I'm still interested in some of the guys whose stock is dropping. Coming into the season, Bobby Dalbec was a top 20 guy. College bat who had a bad season and might not be able to stay at third. But he has good power and a strong arm. Might be a fun lottery ticket. And, of course, Alec Hanson.
  21. gunnarthor
    Obviously, we're still in really small samples but is Kepler really unlucky or are pitchers hitting the bat out of his hand? His walk rate and strike out rates are outstanding but his babip is .200. So he's either hitting it right at people or he's making incredibly weak contact.
  22. gunnarthor
    Maybe we're talking past each other? The Twins have some higher paid (but moderate compared to MLB salaries) players not playing well. I would argue that Mauer and Santana are playing well, Milone, Plouffe and Dozier's salary were set as part of the CBA although the Twins locked in a value on Dozier. The other salaries are pretty minimal. Basically, what you are arguing is that FA signings aren't really worth it. Which is a reason the Twins don't do it much and only do it on the smaller scale.
  23. gunnarthor
    And if the Cubs called and offered Lester for Sano, we'd hang up on them. Doesn't mean Lester has negative value. I don't think Santana's contract is a bad one. He's pitched well for us. Obviously, the PED suspension is a big mark against him but when he's on the mound, he's been good. He's not an ace but he's also not being paid like an ace. I agree that the Nolasco signing hasn't been a good one.
  24. gunnarthor
    It's not really the same salary. Santana and Nolasco combined for just under 100m. Lester signed for 155m. While Santana and Nolasco will be paid 25m this year, the Twins won't be paying 25m to them in 2021, which is the real problem with those long term contracts. And I agree that there are some good contracts, too. Arrieta is a steal. But Mauer and Santana might also be overpaid (actually, Santana probably isn't) but they are good players.
  25. gunnarthor
    Well, sure. But when Kepler was called up, the 40 man was full. I, and I think most of us, were fine with the Twins not putting a vet like Robinson (or Murphy) on the 40 man. Santana got hurt, the Twins needed another body. It happens. They could have cut Hicks on April 7th (or whenever) and put Maestro on the 40 man so Kepler stayed down but I'm not overly concerned with them not doing it. That doesn't bother me nearly as much as Molitor starting/not starting Buxton or how he treated Meyer.
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