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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Ugh, that was bad. That was "The Tick" level bad.
  2. gunnarthor
    I like Schwartz but I think he'll go higher up than that. He had a nice finish to the season, bloodlines and plays catcher. I think he'll go in the top 5 rounds. I'm not completely sold on your picks at 35/37. It might depend on what else is there but I'm hoping another college arm falls (Crowe or Lange?) and if Heilot Ramos is there, I'd love him at 35/37. Enlow is one of the many prep arms that I'd like to have an opportunity to nab, though. Heatherly I'm not as high on. pipeline pointed out that he's 19 and has command issues. Adams and Baumann seem like good college picks.
  3. gunnarthor
    Some of it had to be mental. If he read any article's comment section about him he would read about what a greedy so and so he was. And then he struggled in that Astros launching pad in A+ and the Astros ML manager called him out and then he had some injuries ... just a complete snowballing.
  4. gunnarthor
    I made mention of this briefly in a different post but the guys at minorleagueball did a four round draft. Obviously, they don't have the insight that real drafts have but they are probably slightly better informed draft junkies with focus on where their team is drafting so it's interesting, in my opinion, to see who was falling in these mock drafts. The Twins took Wright #1 and at 35 they could have taken college arms like Tanner Houck, Wil Crowe, Tillo or Clarke Schmidt (I'm not sure all would actually fall past 35 in a real draft) or HS players like Danner and Crouse. Again, I have real doubts about whether those names would actually be available at 35/37 but some would. The top of this draft is about 5 deep. And there's another tier about 10 deep. But after that, I think between say 15-55, the order could go in multiple directions. Like last year when we saw Dakota Hudson fall into the 30s or the year before when Buehler fell into the 30s, some players are just going to drop as teams didn't expect them to drop and/or had other deals lined up. I'd much rather the Twins aim for Wright (or Gore if they think he's BPA) and then be prepared to punt 37 if need be to nab a falling player at 35.
  5. gunnarthor
    It'll be interesting to see what happens. It's also worth pointing out that the Astros strategy isn't a complete lock. It worked well in 2012 when they got McCullers at 41 but the 2014 gamble bit them hard and in 2015 they had two top 5 picks to use but Daz Cameron might not be the player we all thought he'd be. So I don't want to see the Twins move too far off of BPA. Gore and Baz might be worth it, but I'm not sure. I probably want Wright and see what falls to 35/37 b/c there's some deep talent in this draft.
  6. gunnarthor
    I like Gordon a lot. I imagine he'll be in the top 30 or so on the next rankings. He's not in the Buxton/Sano tier but he's in the next tier Kepler-like tier. He/Polanco/Dozier give the Twins a solid trade chip if they can pull it off.
  7. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that's a nice list. If the Twins were going to go cheap at 1/1, I'd rather it was still for a pitcher. But having a few hundred thousand to get guys like Eastman to sign in round 11+ would be very nice too.
  8. gunnarthor
    I'm not opposed to the idea of getting someone to drop and saving money on 1/1. But I'm concerned about the actual ability to get a guy to drop to 35/37. And the list of guys I want is relatively small. I want at least two college pitchers taken in our first three picks unless some super HS arm dropped.
  9. gunnarthor
    Yeah, it'd have suggested that but it's a Smith thread.
  10. gunnarthor
    So, I guess the logic would be: Smith signs for about 3m less than slot. Twins then arrange for someone else (Faedo?) who wants 5m or so to slip to 35 or get two guys in the 20ish range to slip to 35/37 for 1.5m more than slot each? (Canning and Lange)? I think the big problem with that idea is 1) The Twins need pitching and the college pitching seems to be McKay and Wright in the 1/1 conversation, Bukakas and Faedo in the 7-12 rangle and a handful of arms in the 15-25ish range. Guys in the 20ish range could easily fall on their own (see Dakota Hudson last year, Buehler the year before). 2) It seems that with all the high end high school pitching, we're going to see either a college arm or a HS arm drop farther than we expected even if we play the top of the draft straight. 3. While we have the biggest pool, we don't get to pick for a second time until after the Reds so they would be fully capable of 'stealing' a falling arm from us. I'd love a draft of, say, Smith, Faedo, Lange but I'm not sure that's realistic and a draft of Wright, HS arm, Crowe is realistic and probably better anyway.
  11. gunnarthor
    Reminds me a bit of Colin Moran who walked a ton in college and isn't really a prospect anymore. I think Smith is better and won't bust like Moran but it's a scary comp.
  12. gunnarthor
    I'm really excited about those young draft picks from last year, particularly Miranda. I really like that we drafted Miranda, Baddoo and Rortvedt (and Jordan Belovozic). Rortvedt is already in A ball, the other three were 17 when they were drafted. I think, after we see them physically develop more, we will see significant jumps in their prospect rankings.
  13. gunnarthor
    Yep, I think I got the two confused. Thanks.
  14. gunnarthor
    I thought the Twins released Melo? I like Belozovic a lot. That was a nice draft pick with a lot of potential upside. He'll just need time.
  15. gunnarthor
    Let me re-phrase, if the Twins draft him, he'll sign. But I suspect that Boras has been working very hard to get a good deal for Romero that is more in line with his talent level than his draft location and might be telling teams that Romero wants X-amount. Arguably some team, maybe the Nats, agrees and plans to nab him in the second round for above slot $. The Twins might not want to spend that high so they could A) pass B - draft him and pay X or C) draft him and tell him to eat the medicine and sign him for what the Twins want to pay. Option C applies to basically every player in the draft. If you draft Faedo and offer him 1m less than he expected/informed you he'd sign for, he probably still signs but it would affect your relationship going forward. That's why teams tend not to do option C.
  16. gunnarthor
    Nice. I was looking at fangraphs sortable draft list and wondered if you knew how the Twins felt about three college arms slated for the 30s - Will Crowe, Tanner Houck and Alex Lange. Also, Seth Romero is represented by Boras which might make him a tougher sign than expected. I think I'm hoping for a draft of Wright, Clarke and Crowe or such but would be very happy if a college arm started to fall, like Dakota Hudson did last year.
  17. gunnarthor
    I'm sure they are. There are some rules against it that everyone breaks esp with regard to HS players. The Phillies a few years ago killed NCAA eligibility for a few of their drafted kids who didn't sign by telling the NCAA that the players worked with an adviser and I believe the Astros threatened to do the same to Aiken although everyone in the world knew he had an agent. http://deadspin.com/report-the-phillies-ratted-out-two-draft-picks-to-the-1526769641
  18. gunnarthor
    I think, and the draft will show us, that Preller, the SD GM, has made it clear to Greene and his adviser that SD will go over slot to sign him. That way it would make sense for him to shut down early. My guess is that he still gets the largest signing bonus in this draft class.
  19. gunnarthor
    I'd wait before freaking out. A+ to AA is supposed to be the most difficult jump and he did miss a lot of time before coming back last year. Let's see what his stuff looks like in August.
  20. gunnarthor
    We have some holdings in India that have been strong for us. Nothing in Russia, Brazil or China though.
  21. gunnarthor
    Generally, no. That's beyond me. I expect that the Twins have scouts and mechanics are a big part of what they are looking at. If they think someone is a future TJ, they'd (hopefully) note that in their reports.
  22. gunnarthor
    Man, Mark Appel. Remember when everyone thought Boras was nuts for not letting him sign with Pittsburgh because he was taking away his earnings on the back end? 28 AAA starts with an era over 5. I asked a few days ago about this Davis guy and lo and behold, he's really hitting. Hopefully that continues. He's been hurt and he's a little old for the level but he's on a nice run. I'll echo everyone else's thoughts on Thorpe, about time and hopefully he gets back on track.
  23. gunnarthor
    Yep, the reality is, we're probably not getting the best player from the draft at 1/1. It'll be someone else. So don't worry about it. Get a guy who you know will be a solid ML pitcher and don't overthink it.
  24. gunnarthor
    I used to be a McKay guy but I think I've come over to Wright. Sometimes, we overthink things and nitpick. Wright's got stuff, size and comes from a great school. He's known he'd be a ML pitcher for years now and seems to handle everything well. Take him, save a few bucks and get someone who is falling.
  25. gunnarthor
    Thanks for doing these Seth. I won't be at the book signing but it was nice of Klaw to talk to TD.
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