Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

gunnarthor

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,181

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    20

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Tutorials & Help

Videos

2023 Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Free Agent & Trade Rumors

Guides & Resources

Minnesota Twins Players Project

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Yep, I think he'll make the biggest jump on prospect rankings of all our guys but Miranda isn't far behind, either.
  2. gunnarthor
    Thanks for posting. Certainly the OF defense has been fun to watch. I'm curious on how Polanco scores at short and Sano at third. I don't think either of them are GG guys but both have been much better than I expected. Additionally, how does SDI like Rosario?
  3. gunnarthor
    Even Keith Law has said he wouldn't use FIP for minor leaguers.
  4. gunnarthor
    I think if you're going to look at the draft, it helps to look at in some context. From roughly 95-2007 our draft was run primarily by Radcliff and Ryan, both had strong scouting backgrounds. That period didn't have limits on signing bonuses and the Pohlad family was extremely cheap. During the 2001 draft, the Star Tribune mentioned that Carl thought he owed baseball a duty to fight back against the rising cost of draft signing bonuses. So I think it's important to remember that the Twins had budget handcuffs during this period. That said, they drafted pretty well and, along with some smart trades, put together a nice decade of ML competitiveness. From 08-2011, the same financial limits were in place but now it was Bill Smith and Deron Johnson. Those drafts didn't work out. Lots of reasons why but they just didn't work out. From 2012-2016 two things happened. First, and most importantly, the bonus slotting system was put into place. That was huge. A guy like Buxton couldn't demand 8m now. And Ryan replaced Smith. Johnson remained in charge of draft (although I'm positive Radcliff had some input at least in 2012). Those drafts, IMO, have been solid to great. The drafts that have been the strongest were the ones where the Twins had multiple picks early - 2012, 5 picks in the top 75, 2016 4 picks in the top 75 - and the weakest were the drafts with less options - 2015, 1 pick signed in the top 75. And now in 2017 onward, it's Levine/Falvey/Sean Johnson. Loved the draft but way too early to tell.
  5. gunnarthor
    Meh, that's overstated. They had four high picks (ignoring this last draft since it's too early to make a real call but the early return on Lewis looks good), Buxton, Stewart, Jay and Gordon. The last three are still in the minors. Gordon is a highly regarded prospect by everyone. Stewart is a HS arm, which is the riskiest pick you can make so I'm not sure we should be too upset about it. As mentioned above, Jay is the only controversial pick (and his arm injury is worrisome). But 4 top 6 picks in four years isn't expected to give you a 100% hit rate, especially if three of them are HS guys. Generally, I think the drafts have added about the amount of talent you'd expect - although the draft strategy has left something to be desired - but there has been some bad luck on injuries as well.
  6. gunnarthor
    The 2015 draft was so dependent on Jay. No second round pick b/c we signed Santana. Our other second round pick doesn't sign.The next player taken in Blankenhorn. 2014 is probably my least favorite draft, at least on how we did it. Gordon was the guy I wanted but then we went really heavy on relief pitchers and that hasn't really gotten us anything. Obviously if Gordon and two relievers have successful careers, it's a good draft but I think I'd consider us lucky. 2013 was my favorite draft strategy draft. A couple high upside HS arms (Stewart, Gonsalves) along with a couple 'safe'-ish college arms (Eades and Slegers) and three catching prospects you could throw at a wall and expect one to make it (Navaratto, Garver, Turner). I think the 2016 might push the 2012 draft for best draft in recent years. No Buxton in that draft but several guys I think can be top 100 prospects and solid MLers. I loved that draft.
  7. gunnarthor
    Bryant was a legit top 3 pick. Schwarber was a top 10ish pick. Rooker was not that type of draft prospect. Look at what other recent college hitters taken around the same pick are doing.
  8. gunnarthor
    Yeah, what the heck? I'm going to be really pissed if they shut him down for a couple months, let him pitch and then have him have major surgery that pushes him back to 2019 to pitch again.
  9. gunnarthor
    I liked the logic of the Benninghoff pick. I don't know if he'll make it but it's a nice gamble. Good luck to the kid in coming back.
  10. gunnarthor
    Actually, that's not a bad idea. A year out, some of those picks are looking really, really good.
  11. gunnarthor
    What do people think of Kendrick? IIRC, he was another one of the young HS bats (along with Blankenhorn and Cabbage) the Twins took in the top 10. He had real power but was 1b/dh only. He has a lot of walks although his avg is pretty low (still less than 100 PA this year).
  12. gunnarthor
    Nice outing for Thorpe. It'll be interesting to read the scouting reports on him this offseason. He was a top 100 prospect years ago for BP - I believe the guy who made the list is now with the Cubs FO.
  13. gunnarthor
    They aren't prospects but both Park and Vargas have plus power. In the low minors we have a few guys who could be power bats eventually - Kiriloff, Diaz, Baddoo, Rooker
  14. gunnarthor
    That's true. And insurance is probably why the Twins were allowed to pay Garcia's salary. Perkins is gone next year (700k buyout). Hughes is still under contract. Not sure how much insurance would cover, although it won't be 100%. Basically, the Twins need the young players to start playing better but fixing the pitching staff is going to be really hard.
  15. gunnarthor
    It's 108m. That's pretty much the highest it's ever been. 2011 it was 113m and many here think Smith was fired in part because he wanted to keep or increase that payroll. I mean, maybe the Twins get to 113 or so but I don't think we should expect that. The Pohlad family isn't going to go much higher than they have in the past.
  16. gunnarthor
    Twins have 67m already set in payroll for next year, for 6 players. And they are paying 4m for Nolasco and Park regardless. And they have a lot of arbitration raises to Gibson, Escobar, Pressley, Giminez, Recker, May, Grossman, Adrianza. Giminez could be released but I think they'd keep everyone else. As bad as Gibson is, he's a warm body and they need pitchers. Pressly? Maybe he goes but he'd probably stay. Those 7 (not counting Giminez) would probably make 13-14m? That means the other 12 players on the 25 man roster would make league minimum (6m). That would leave the FO with about 15-20m to work with in FA if they keep payroll around this years total. What does that get us? We probably will add a 12m AAV pitcher type. And a few more Belisle and Breslow relievers. It doesn't really give us a lot of room.
  17. gunnarthor
    it was sarcasm.
  18. gunnarthor
    Yeah he makes sense but remember that Levine is our GM so maybe he takes another run at Napoli.
  19. gunnarthor
    Part of the problem is Kepler and Buxton haven't really turned into dangerous hitters yet. I like both of them a lot but Kepler only has a 96 OPS+. For a corner OF, that's pretty bad. Buxton's struggles have been talked about enough. I would like to see the Twins get a big bat in FA although I don't think the FO automatically will. But bats like Carlos Santana, JD Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison (finally having his big year) would be available and perhaps affordable.
  20. gunnarthor
    Which pending free agents do you think Ryan let walk?
  21. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that's fair but still seems pretty light for the A's
  22. gunnarthor
    I do think these moves are decent but I think this offseason will be a much bigger test for Levine.
  23. gunnarthor
    Holy crap. So the Twins probably could have topped the Gray deal with Gonsalves, Jay, Blankenhorn (or comparable). And they could have gotten Darvish with Romero, Thorpe and Baddoo?
  24. gunnarthor
    I don't disagree. I would say that the bullpen wasn't the only problem. Obviously, the starters are a mixed bag but our offense has been struggling a bit and Kintzler isn't irreplaceable. So, really our choices were maybe trading off Ynoa, Blankenhorn, Curtiss, Garver (some guys in our 10-20) for some modest bullpen help. Maybe that works. Or, we get a little for later and open up some 40 man spots and bring up Romero and Curtiss to the pen, now, and aim for next year.
  25. gunnarthor
    It's a solid trade. If it all works out, Watson could be a back end starter under team control for six years. It's more likely that he's a LH reliever but he has years to work this out. Realistically, the most likely scenario is that he washes out before AAA but he's another good lotto ticket. Most will fail but some will make it.
×
×
  • Create New...