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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I think Tom covered it pretty well. He's a good prospect but he's not top 5. He might slip into a back end top 100 somewhere (Sickels). He wasn't a top of the draft pick. He's just a good pick playing well with one really good tool and some evidence, so far, that he might be able to hit at higher levels. That's all very encouraging. You should look at how he's doing vs. other college bats taken in similar spots in recent drafts. Rooker looks very good.
  2. gunnarthor
    This article made me chuckle. https://splinternews.com/hey-idiots-youre-gonna-lose-all-your-money-on-bitcoin-1820805131
  3. gunnarthor
    Steib is the most overrated underrated player going right now. In his career he threw 2900 or so innings and 44 WAR. From 80-91, Morris threw 2900 innnings and 44 WAR. In 5 more seasons he tacked on another 11 WAR. While you noted their bWAR you didn't note their fWAR Morris (55.8) Palmer (56.6) and Hubbel (56.5). I suspect the difference between those has to do with the defense - Palmer's babip for his career is .249. Of pitchers with 3000ip or more, only Catfish Hunter is better and third best is sitting at .258. Hubbel (.267) and Morris (.270) aren't close to that. Brooks Robinson was really, really good. Again, if you like WAR, he's comparable to Palmer and Hubbel.
  4. gunnarthor
    Some of that is true but it's also a little out of context. Morris had more seasons in the top 10 of k/9 than Johan and more seasons in the top 10 in strikeouts as well. When he retired, he was 19th all time in strikeouts. The massive change in the game the last twenty years has changed our perception of strike outs. (Blyleven's k/9 was less than Scott Baker's). And he certainly has a pretty strong claim to the Cy Young in 83 when Hoyt's 24 wins got him the award. While Morris didn't lead in ERA part of the reason is probably due do too many innings, which can water down rate stats. If he threw 50 less innings each year, would his ERA have improved? Probably. But again, they are both borderline candidates but for completely different reasons. Santana, at his best, was inner circle HOF. Very few pitchers could touch that. Morris had longevity. His career is comparable to HOFers like Carl Hubbell and Jim Palmer while Santana relies more on Koufax. They don't compare to each other very well. I'd love to see both in the HOF. Because I prefer longevity and his post season success, I'd probably put Morris in first but you can certainly argue that short high peaks should be HOF worthy as well. (And I think guys like Santana and Nomar Garciaparra should be strongly considered).
  5. gunnarthor
    The idea of trading off Santana doesn't make sense unless you think he'll turn into a pumpkin - in which case you should also think he has no trade value, esp to rebuilding teams that should horde younger players. If you think Santana can pitch about 190 innings next year with a ERA+ of around 100 then you should keep him because we don't have five pitchers that will beat that. He's not blocking anyone and the Twins window is currently open. They shouldn't worry about 2019 when they should be worrying about 2018. And if you think ownership is worried about paying a 36 year old pitcher 14m then how are you going to convince the same owner to pay Darvish 25m per year for his 35-37 years?
  6. gunnarthor
    Not sure why you decided to slam Morris. I assume it's because WAR. Yeah, his rate stats weren't as nice but he threw a lot more innings. Santana threw just about 2000 innings in his career, Saberhagan about 500 more. From 80-87, Jack Morris threw 2038ip (more than Santana's career). From 78-88 he threw 2577 innings (more than Saberhagen's career). He amassed more career WAR than both of them. His peak was never as good but he had more 4+ WAR seasons than both. And he probably should have won the Cy Young in 83 over Hoyt. His case for the Hall is based on longevity and innings. (And Morris' totals look a lot better if you consider WARs margin of error). It's just a weird comparison. Saberhagen, Santana and Morris are all better pitchers than Goose Gossage and Mariano Rivera. Doesn't really affect their HOF claim. And at the end of the day, Morris' had a lot of post season success, including 3 CG wins in the World Series and a WS MVP. Santana and Saberhagen both had worse post-season numbers (although Saberhagen has a WS MVP too).
  7. gunnarthor
    Saberhagen 85-91 won two Cy Youngs and had a third year worth 8 WAR and didn't even receive a vote.
  8. gunnarthor
    I like this group a lot. I'm ok with Kiriloff ahead of Rooker and Baddoo for now because I think Kiriloff has a better overall hit tool which is more important. But it's a small quibble. All three are darn good prospects. I think Baddoo should be #6 (Gordon, Lewis, Romero, Gonsalves, Kiriloff, Baddoo, Rooker, Enlow, Thorpe and Graterol) and I think he'll sneak onto some top 100 lists. I absolutely love his upside. Ceiling wise, I think he and Lewis are the only ones who could sneak into the top 10 down the line. Rooker grew on me and Sickels is a big fan - he might make his top 100. I like that he should be in AA this year and his power looks great. Really nice pick. I'm not sure what to make of Javier yet since he's so far away but the tools are certainly exciting. As to the pitchers, what does it say to our system depth that Enlow - a top 30 or so draft prospect can barely crack our top 10? We don't have the upside of a few years ago but the current depth is fantastic. I've hung around a few other baseball blogs/forums over the last year and a guy who came up in a few places to try and "steal" from us was Graterol. I was surprised there was such a whisper campaign about him.
  9. gunnarthor
    According to Bill James, Puckett was the 7th best CF at the time of his retirement, so stat heads seemed to like him. In 12 years, the fans voted him into 10 all-star games, so the fans seemed to think he was pretty good. When he retired he had the third most combined GG and silver sluggers for any outfielder, so the managers thought he was pretty good. I've always thought the writers did a nice job with selecting Puckett and not waiting for some statistical benchmark like 3000 hits or 60 WAR or whatever compiled stat you want. I know WAR is the current hot stat and it doesn't like Puck as much as other stats do but there's enough problems with WAR where we can look at Puck's other claims and put him in.
  10. gunnarthor
    The agent is probably working on an under the board deal with the Yankees to give him a 100m extension after a few months here. I'm not joking. MLB.com had an article about it a few weeks ago about how MLB is really trying hard to make sure nothing like that is happening.
  11. gunnarthor
    Looks like Citron is going to knock down Shopify in the coming months again although the link to the promised future report is just the same article. Yahoo finance bugs me sometimes. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-investors-want-believe-shopify-180850867.html
  12. gunnarthor
    Well, Sano was never going to be DH so Park really had nothing to do with it. Park was a reasonable gamble. For all those who want the Twins to sign Ohtani or Darvish, they'll be blocking Romero, Gonsalves, Thorpe, etc and taking payroll as well.
  13. gunnarthor
    It's a pipedream. He'll sign with the Yankees for only a million and then the Yankees will sign the best former Braves prospects with the savings he gives them. Then they'll beat us in the postseason next year and win the world series where Ohtani throws a CG no-hitter in game seven while hitting a grandslam in the 9th. And then the Yankees give him a 10y/200m extension that they promised him all along. sigh
  14. gunnarthor
    mlbtraderumors says the Twins are still on the hook for the money over the next two years. My favorite Park moment - https://www.mlb.com/video/parks-solo-homer/c-593993283 I really wish it had worked out for him b/c he had more power than Sano, I think.
  15. gunnarthor
    Not saying it was right, just forgot that Rivera was ahead of him. And WAR ain't a great stat (I mean, all stats show that Santana was better).
  16. gunnarthor
    Rogers sorta reminds me of Matt Guerrier in some ways. He can be a valuable part of the pen. Probably not your best piece but effective.
  17. gunnarthor
    I really like this group. Thorpe and LIttell can both be ML starters and might have some ceiling too. Wade is a guy I really like as a possible trade chip since we have so many lefties. But his on-base skills are legit so he could be a second piece in a trade. I want to see Garver play but it seems Molly doesn't trust him. It'll be interesting to see how the team uses him next year. Only Diaz is far away but he has some potential. We'll see with him.
  18. gunnarthor
    While some of our bullpen arms haven't made it some still look pretty exciting and some have already made it. The names aren't who we might have guessed but Hildy and Rogers look like legit pieces. Curtiss and Jay should be part of the pen this year. Jay could be special.
  19. gunnarthor
    Actually, he's gotten quite a few guys out in AA. In 32 starts at age 21 and 22 he's gone 14-12 with a 3.51 era in 169 ip. But 89 walks against 99 strike outs and 19 wild pitches so control is a big problem. I would have protected him since he's only 22 and made a spot start in AAA already. We'll see what happens.
  20. gunnarthor
    Dude, you'll go crazy if you think of the things you should have bought. Just have a solid longterm plan. Fund your IRAs every year, if your employer gives you a matching 401k, max it out. Make sure you have some safe stocks and/or index funds as part of your portfolio.* Speaking of safe and boring, my wife added $5500 of Microsoft to her IRA yesterday. * Not an investment professional, just some idiot on a baseball website.
  21. gunnarthor
    He'll start either in AA for us or in another teams bullpen. How he does from there is up to him. I hope he can put it all together.
  22. gunnarthor
    Didn't the Padres carry four catchers for a while last season? I'm positive they did.
  23. gunnarthor
    Killebrew took three ballots. That's my guess for Thome.
  24. gunnarthor
    I think the Twins did a good job of building up Santana in 02 and 03 before making him a fulltime starter in 04. He had only pitched 130 innings combined in 00 and 01 so he threw back to back 160ip seasons before 04. What I always forget is that he didn't come in second that year to Colon. Rivera was second.
  25. gunnarthor
    I think Stewart is a lock to be drafted by some team. He's still young, throws mid 90s and it's easier to hide a pitcher in the pen all year. Why wouldn't a rebuilding team like the Padres or Phillies try that and at least see what he's got in ST? Plus those teams probably still have detailed write ups from his draft year so they'll be intrigued to see if they can 'fix' him. Interesting, it looks like other top 15 picks from the 2013 draft that weren't protected including Mark Appel (DFA'd), Phil Bickford, Trey Ball and DJ Peterson. I'm not sure what happened with Ball. I thought he'd be ok.
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