gunnarthor

Yeah, that's the main thing, it'll come back. SHOP was pretty high (160ish, I think) but I didn't sell and now it's plummeted. I'm more upset that I invested in the market a week too early.

Payroll is at about 80m right now, assuming arb estimates. That gives the team probably about 40m to play with, assuming payroll will be a little smaller than last year. If the Twins were rebuilding, they'd be trading away Rosario and Gibson and Berrios (25 next year) would bring back a ransom. They aren't moving these guys b/c the FO thinks they can win and should try and compete for the central with them next year.

We're not in year 8. The Twins were nearly in the playoffs in 2015 and were in the playoffs in 2017. The rebuild is over. The Twins should be thinking about the AL Central this offseason. Levine is correct when he says they aren't rebuilding. They need to add talent, figure out why some talent hasn't responded like we thought and keep Buxton healthy. Understanding that ownership isn't going to be part of the solution doesn't mean that the FO can't solve these problems. We should expect them to do so. But it does mean that the FO probably can't rely on large payrolls the way most competitive teams have. They'll probably have to follow the Terry Ryan model in the 2000s and the recent Cleveland Indians model - which is why they hired Falvey in the first place. I'm honestly not sure if Falvey and Levine can do it but I'm not ready to give up on them yet but this should be a big offseason for them. They did a good thing in getting rid of Molitor and Baldeli seems like a guy who might be able to relate to the talent we have. But who knows, maybe we get another total system failure.

OK, we know the Pohlad's are crap owners. We've always known that. And Falvey and Levine know it too. Last year, Levine made comments about not being a high-payroll team. Falvey came from Cleveland and saw how the teams were built up without using free agency. These two guys understand the issue and they've both accepted it. It's an open question as to whether they can create something like Terry Ryan managed but I'm not quite ready to give up on them. Yet. But I think we'll have to see some smart trades rather than hope for high priced talent coming in. I'm not going to dump on Levine for his comments about building. It is what it is.

Pedro Floriman with less glove and power but a slightly better bat.

I don't think so. He doesn't have power so I don't think teams want him.

I'd stay away. There's so much smoke with them right now that there is probably a better option. * I'm not an expert and have made very bad stock buys.

ROKU isn't our normal buy. Usually we buy a stock or fund and plan on holding it for decades. I don't plan on holding ROKU that long but I saw the price drop and thought it was a good value. Naturally, I should have waited a week.

Best of luck to him. It was nice that he got to go out on his own terms.

Decided to grab ROKU on it's drop today. Made two purchases at 50 and 47 so I imagine it'll get to 20 fairly soon.

Having seen Littell and Stewart, I think you have to put Littell behind Stewart. Wade and Jeffers should be near Baddoo in some order. Celestino and Alcala aren't top 15 guys for me right now. Rortvedt is easy top 20. He will be in the majors. Jax is too high but prospects 25-40 are probably interchangeable to a degree.

Houston is a huge market with ownership that is willing to spend. That isn't the Twins.

Every year we pretend that this is the year the Pohlads spend money. It never happens. Never. It doesn't matter who the GM is. The Twins have been top half in payroll twice in the last 25 years - 09 and 10, when they fleeced the tax payers into paying for Target Field. Usually they are in the bottom third. The Twins are already at about 71m in payroll, assuming they re-sign most arb guys. They were at about 130m in payroll at start of the season last year although it was pro-rated to about 115 by the end of the season due to trades and insurance. The Twins are still on the hook for Molitor's salary as well as some of Hughes. Those two are nearly 10m combined. The Twins underachieved last year and attendance fell below 2m so revenue is going to be down in comparison. I think it's a fantasy to expect payroll to increase over 130 and would expect payroll to go down. I'd bet it's closer to 115 than 130 on April 1st. The Twins will do what they always do. Sign a few middle tier guys and hope that they get an overachiever like Santana. They'll throw some money into reliever arms and hope something sticks. If the Twins are going to be good, they'll need the core of Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Berrios to make major strides forward. They can also look into trades, since they have a few tradeable assets (and maybe another comp pick they can trade?).

I'm not recommending anything but here's an article about some nice dividend stocks to own. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/9-best-dividend-stocks-buy-202745921.html A few of them I do own and a few others are obvious "safe" stocks. Some are a bit riskier.

I think the manager has to be able to relate to the players and that probably requires him to understand their backgrounds. Molly was baseball smart and he managed every game as a must win, blowing out his pen in the process and not given enough rope to the young guys.

He's a cog, not a difference maker. Solid player but expendable, especially with Kiriloff coming up. I'd consider trading him and let Cave/Wade hold the corner down until Kiriloff but if they don't get a great offer, we could do worse than letting him play for us.

ROKU is taking a hit, down into the 50s. Anyone have any insight on it? We kicked the tires on it a few months ago but passed and saw it jump. Might jump in now.

We could trade Kepler or Rosario because that's a position of depth for us and, frankly, the Pohlad's aren't gong to pay to keep the nucleus around. Kepler will be 26 next year, Rosario 27 and both are entering their arbitration years. Notice I also said, "depending on the return" for them. I didn't suggest giving Rosario away. I like him a lot and am also willing to let him try third base. He's probably our strongest trade chip - his bat has been good for a couple years now and the defensive metrics decided to like him this year, most likely b/c Buxton wasn't in center rather than any actual change to his game. I'm also ok if the Twins don't move those two. But they should at least see what the market is for them.

Flip a coin between the two.

In all seriousness, I think the Twins should consider trading either Kepler or Rosario, depending on the return. Wade and Cave could hold down a corner until Kiriloff is ready to come up and the new piece could help us in areas where we are weaker than OF depth. I haven't followed the Rays nearly enough this year to know but they have 4 MIers on their roster that put up some nice seasons with the bat in varying number of at-bats (Wendell 118 OPS+, Adames 109, Robertson 122, Lowe 112). I'm not sure if those four are even all still with the Rays, for that matter. But the Rays were interested in Kepler last year and might find a spot for him. But even if it's not the Rays, moving OF depth for IF help seems to make sense, unless the Twins are ready to go with a Gordon/Polanco MI out of the gate.

A solid off-season plan: 1) Trade Kepler 2) Sign Harper and Machado 3) Win

Wow, what a day to be busy. I think this was a very good move by the FO that had to be done.

I think the failure is pretty clearly on the ML side of it though.

I don't think that's right. They were in the playoff hunt in 2015, down to the last series of the season. They had a very young nucleus of players and they carpet bombed 2016. They were in the playoffs last season. They should have at least expected .500 this year. Yeah, a lot of stuff went wrong this year but we shouldn't be happy with 78 wins. We should have expected this team to push Cleveland, which really wan't that good this year. Instead we got a bunch of unwatchable baseball for most of the year.

Yep. The Red Sox have actually had quite a few blunders themselves. If you look at mlbpipeline's list of top 100 guys, it included Allen Webster, Henry Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo, Cecchini, Ball, Swihart etc. Every single team misses. When you have additional resources - like $ - it helps cover those mistakes. Henry Owen and Allen Webster didn't turn into aces but they could go out and get Price and Sale instead so those mistakes don't hurt. Although the Red Sox do deserve credit for Betts, a 5th round pick, becoming Mike Trout. Wowza.