gunnarthor

As to Berrios, I'm not sure I'd rank him ahead of Meyer or Stewart, even with his great year. I think those two still have him beat on upside and, in Meyer's case, he'll still probably beat Berrios to the majors. I think we are a little too worried about Meyer. He threw 130 innings after throwing about 100 last year (including the AFL). I think, so long as this shoulder thing isn't more serious which we don't know but early indications are that it's ok, he'll be fine. The big thing for him was to get through the season and for the most part he did. He's got elite stuff but occasionally will get wild. He's a big dude, it'll happen.

Mike, you're jumping the gun. Neither May or Meyer have been moved to the pen and the team hasn't made any plans to do so. May will get every shot to be a valid starter - just like Perkins. If it fails, he can move to the pen and (probably) be an asset - just like Perkins. He's still very young and his four starts have come against four playoff teams. Meyer could end up in the pen due to control or injury but again the Twins haven't moved him in that direction. Lastly, their aren't really "elite" players in FA to buy. I will agree with you that the Twins should be more aggressive in the Cuban and Japanese markets.

What talent would you bring in? What trades would you make? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015-free-agent-power-rankings

I really don't like WAR but I'm going to use fWAR for a quick second to see how the Twins are per position in the AL. The second number is just OPS, non-adjusted. C - 8/15 (WAR) and 5/15 (OPS). Suzuki has been solid but Fryar and Pinto have been useless. 1B - 13/15 and 13/15. This is the one spot I think they Twins can expect a big rebound with a healthy Mauer and less Colabello and Parm. 2B - 5/15 and 3/15. Dozier is a legit second baseman on a playoff team. 3B - 5/15 and 9/15. I was surprised. Weak year for offense hides the fact that Plouffe's been pretty good overall. I still don't trust Plouffe but Sano should be here soon enough. SS - 1/15 and 5/15. And here I was stunned but they are double counting Santana for WAR. Just Escobar and it's closer to 7 out of 15. Still, pretty good year for our short stops. LF - 12/15 and 11/15. CF - 6/15 and 5/15. Fangraphs loved Fuld for WAR and Santana's obviously been good. RF - 14/15 and 9/15. Pulled down by the double counting of Parm and Colabello for WAR but Arcia isn't a good defender yet. DH - 9/15 and 5/15. A bit surprised that OPS liked the Twins DH's so much. So ... Nick has a point. While RF hasn't been great, Arcia should get the vast majority of AB next year, even if his defense is down. Vargas should get 600 PA too. The big questions is regression for guys like Escobar, Santana, Suzuki and Plouffe. The Twins could bring in a guy like Nelson Cruz on a 3 year deal. Or Nick Markakis. But there isn't a lot else out there in the FA bin. Maybe Colby Rasmus accepts a one year deal to fix his stock. But a lot of guys - Hicks, Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Pinto, Escobar just need to play to see what we have while Buxton and Sano are in AAA.

A while back, I remember looking at every prospect that the Twins had ranked in the top 100 since Ryan became GM. 20% busted - guys like Joe Benson, Matt Moses, Adam Johnson, JD Durbin. But most of them became useful everyday players - ie, solid starters - and about 20% became all stars - guys like Guzman, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddy, Hunter. The other interesting thing was that, of the busts, most of them were ranked high by reputation (like Johnson or Moses who were both high picks). Only a few, like Benson, worked their way onto the list by putting up good numbers in the minors but couldn't make the move to the majors. And the last thing to remember is that, while some top prospects won't pan out, some non-prospects will emerge. These guys were never top 100 prospects - Radke, Santana, Mays, Baker, Koskie, Dougie Baseball, AJ Pierzinski, Jacque Jones, Duensing, Dozier. Maybe Danny Santana gets added to that list next year.

Levi Michael has really reemerged as a prospect. Obviously we have SSS in AA but he's not struggling there and his bb/k numbers have been great all year. He could turn into a decent on-base utility type guy for a MI. Nice to see.

But, aside from PED Ortiz' accusation from a decade ago (which didn't actually fit the facts), is there any evidence that the Twins have a "cookie cutter approach"?

That's a good point. IIRC, young Morneau had a bit of the same problem in using the whole field. But by 06, 21 of his 34 home runs went to CF or LF. Good power hitters use the entire field, even if they are usually pull happy. They just have to learn to what to do with certain pitches the pitchers want them to try and pull. Arcia will get there sometime.

Threads like this seem to have two purposes - 1) to report on a simple statement made which may or may not have much impact on reality and 2) to remind people yet again that PED Ortiz didn't hit many home runs in MN. I'm really not sure what the point is. As to #1, the numbers show that Vargas isn't pull happy, despite the statement (and while Arcia doesn't go to left field much, he does have a good number of hits back up the middle so he's not entirely pull happy). Additionally, there isn't a lot of reason to believe that the Twins, for years now, have been an collection of hitters who use the entire field. This (like a lot of other memes on TD) has fueled a false narrative about "The Twins Way."

We are still in SSS territory but I thought Vargas did a pretty good job of using the whole field as a hitter and the numbers point that out. As a righty, Vargas has hit .300 (3 for 10) going to center or right field and is 3 for 4 when pulling it. As a lefty, Vargas 9 for 20 up the middle or opp field and 4 for 7 pulling it. He doesn't seem determined to pull the ball, despite the nice narrative.

Are you freaking kidding? What a wasted ******** season. God I hope he doesn't have Morneau's concussion.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/royals-add-righty-thumper-willingham/ Baseball America's article goes into pretty good depth on Adam but I'd point out one thing: "Adam’s success or failure is largely tied to his delivery. When he gets too upright in his delivery and gets too mechanical he leaves his fastball up, it straightens up and becomes quite hittable. He has three games of seven or more runs allowed this year and he had five games of seven runs or more allowed last year. But when he drives off the mound and gets extension, he gets just as much if not more velocity (92-95 mph) and generates good sink on his fastball while locating down in the zone. Adam added a slider this year, although at its best, his downer curveball is more effective and is usable both as a strike early in the count or as a bigger breaker when he’s ahead of hitters." May had a similar problem when we got him - while tall he pitched short and the ball came in high on a straight plane, letting hitters square up better and/or letting the ball fly out of the zone. It took a couple years, and repeating AA, but May has gotten a lot better with that. Perhaps the Twins see a similar tweek in Adam and can turn him into a solid starter. BA also wrote that "The Twins are getting a great lottery ticket. At his best, Adam shows two plus pitches (his fastball and curveball) as well as an average changeup and a slider that could develop into an average pitch and he does it all with potentially average control." We have three more seasons where we can stash him in the minors while he works on mechanics/control.

MLBtraderumors on Adam: The return for Willingham is not insignificant, which is a fair achievement for Minnesota given that the pending free agent was claimed (leaving the Twins without leverage to deal with multiple trade partners). Adam, 23, was a fifth-round pick in 2010. He has scuffled somewhat in the upper minors as a starter (5.13 ERA in 242 1/3 Double-A innings), but has had some success at Triple-A this year in a relief role (2.35 ERA over 15 1/3 frames). Baseball America rated him Kansas City’s 9th-best prospect coming into the year, saying he has a solid heater and average slider but will need to develop a go-to third offering (change or curve) in order to succeed against lefties at the next level. MLB.com also rated him in the ninth slot among KC prospects entering the year, but dropped him to 16th in its mid-season update. Ultimately, Adam represents a controllable depth piece for a Minnesota club that already picked up young starter Tommy Milone earlier this summer. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/08/royals-acquire-josh-willingham.html Seems like a solid trade for us.

Yep.

I'm pretty curious to see the return on Correia. Ryan got a solid return on Butera last year but this says PTBNL or cash so it might not be that good. In any event, good luck to KC in LA.

Yeah, but no one is dumb enough to base results on one start. And you should include BB%

Not really sure if that is true. I mean, he's walked 8 batters in his last 10 innings. Sure, his one start after the break wasn't as bad as the one before it but May has certainly shown much better control - both recently and all year.

What's going on with Buxton? Has he played lately?

Seems like a simple move. He's certainly not going to start but he could be a decent defensive replacement/pinch runner for a bit. And if the Twins are giving people shots, isn't a former top 50 prospect who is only 27 the kind of guy you'd want them giving shots too? I guess I don't really get why we should complain about such a basic stop gap move.

Nicely done, Seth.

I think the next manager will be Mientkiewicz although I don't know when. I suspect he'll be a bench coach next year.

I agree that TF seems better for RH pull power - which is one reason I'd like the Twins to draft Jackson.

Part of the problem is you are comparing some weekday home games the last two years to the 2011 season which were friday-sunday night games. I have no doubt that attendance this year will be lower than last year - until Buxton comes up at least - but it's not a huge deal for us anyways until/unless the payroll is affected and there is no indication that it will be.

I like Mauer but he's never been or will be my favorite player. It just *seems* like he should be better. Part of that is because he does everything so effortlessly - really quite in the batter's box, no wasted movement. Doesn't seem excited (which is why my all time favorite Mauer play was him jumping and tagging out Gardner at home plate in NY). He's physically bigger than Morneau yet he doesn't seem to *want* to hit homeruns. He doesn't seem to let the situation affect him - usually this is good but sometimes it's bad. In a late game, I'd rather Mauer tried to get a hit of a situational lefty rather than take a walk and let the next guy face a shutdown relief pitcher, something that happens quite a bit. He also *seems* tone deaf - esp in 2011 - towards fans and teammates. I hate reading things that suggests that he's "just one of the guys." That drives me nuts. But the guy was, at his best, one of the 5 best players in baseball over several seasons. Seems hard to nit-pick that. It'll be interesting to see if he can be one of the 5 best first basemen this year. My guess is that he puts up a series of pretty quite - high onbase, low counting stats - but solid 4 WAR seasons the next few years and that Sano/Buxton become the face of the franchise and Mauer remains under rated in Twins history. He won't be the best player on our team the next time we have a winning season.

Howie - re: the power arms. One point Parks made in his podcast was that some of these k-guys might not be k-guys in the majors. He brought up Berrios in particular as a guy he likes but his stuff might not lead to a lot of strike outs in the majors. And he reminded us that a lot of low k-guys in the majors struck out a lot of guys in the minors. Slowey avg 8.4. Radke 7.0. Baker avg about 8 at AA and AAA. Meyer will strike out guys and Parks liked Jorge longterm for that, as well. But it's a good reminder that the k's don't always travel.