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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    La Russa drank and drove and had it covered up. Cox beat up his wife. Weaver was an ****** of the highest order. Billy Martin was worse. Most managers have been unfaithful to their wives. Molitor's off the field stuff doesn't matter to me at all so long as it doesn't affect his on the field managing.
  2. gunnarthor
    A lot of very good managers have stayed at one place for over 10 years with great results - La Russa, Cox, Torre all just went into the HOF. Weaver. Sparky. Whitey. Both TK and Gardy had good runs. Sciocia in LA. Bochy is on his 8th year in SF and Baker had a good 10 year run prior to that. Longterm stability in the manager isn't a bad thing. That said, I think Molitor gets the job, hangs around for a few years and then it goes to Dougie Baseball.
  3. gunnarthor
    Is this one of those moderator created threads to gather up all the trolls in one place?
  4. gunnarthor
    From 99-07 (his last year), Twins pitchers were third out of 30 in pWAR, behind only the Yankees and Red Sox. He's brought in quite a few good arms over the years.
  5. gunnarthor
    I'm fine with any of the three. I hate the idea of disqualifying Molitor or Dougie Baseball just b/c they work for the Twins. That's a stupid idea. And Ryan had no problem picking Gardy despite being part of a coaching staff that had lost a lot prior to 2001. It is interesting that Lovullo has been a finalist for a lot of jobs but never hired.
  6. gunnarthor
    I'm more pessimistic on this than I thought. At this point, I don't think the Twins should count on him to be any better than he was. If he improves, great. But don't expect much more. His babip was around normal for him, he didn't play catcher but couldn't stay healthy. He'll be 32 next year. Lots of guys are done at 32. I also don't think he has the ability to hit with power against the shifts baseball has used against him. The hard part will be what they do if he stays this way. His OBP was still pretty respectable and would fit in the #2 spot. But his bat really isn't better than that and the Twins might have better options in the next few years at the top of the order. He could be a #7 hitter in 2016.
  7. gunnarthor
    A few things wrong with this. First, of the Twins best prospects only Sano and Polanco are Smith guys. I'm also sure it's fair to say that he's dong what any other GM would do with those picks. The Astros have absolutely torpedo their drafts (and they've drafted above us in everyone).
  8. gunnarthor
    Eh. First, the GM has a huge say in the first round pick, esp at the top of the board. Second, when Ryan came back, he publicly stated that he and Radcliff would have input on the draft. He didn't mention Johnson (and Johnson has had some bad results prior in the draft). Third, there was no way the Twins could pass on college ready pitchers to get a HS kid that everyone thought would take many years to develop without specific approval from the GM. Fourth, when Ryan wasn't the GM, his generalized area to cover was the SE and PR. Twins drafted heavily from those areas once he came back to the GM chair. Lastly, ever report indicated that Ryan (like all GMs) would see the players. Secondly, a lot of the Ryan talk is code for the FO. A lot of anti-Ryan guys use thoughts about the Twins being stuck in their ways etc. It's an attack on the whole FO not just Ryan. So it's fair to use Ryan both ways.
  9. gunnarthor
    I was never very high on him as a prospect but I was wrong. He'll be a stud. He clearly cares about hitting and smart enough to figure it out. I think next year could be a really big year for him.
  10. gunnarthor
    I was using the 07 list - the 08 list is made up of guys that Smith, the new GM, added. Smith (for many reasons) never was able to get the farm system back to where Ryan left it. The 07 list had 4 guys, the 06 list had 5, etc. But the idea that Ryan left the cupboard bare isn't true. We had a well stocked system his last year with us and a lot of recently well regarded graduates.
  11. gunnarthor
    The idea that Ryan left the cupboard bare isn't completely true. When he left, the Twins had a pretty young nucleus of talent in the majors and 4 guys in BA top 100. The idea that the Twins had bad pitching under Ryan is also demonstratively false. In fact, the knock on Ryan used to be that he couldn't draft hitters. From 2000-2007, the Twins were 3rd in all of baseball in pitching WAR with only the Red Sox and Yankees above them. Lastly, we played out this game last year when we constantly updated the pitching FA targets during the season. Correia was among the best. The reality that fans don't want to hear is that rebuilds take time, rebuilding through FA is a bad idea, all teams go through these cycles and Ryan has demonstrated the ability to rebuild and keep those windows open longer than most GMs.
  12. gunnarthor
    Stewart and Castillo. I think the Twins could/should listen on a few guys. Jose Berrios or Alex Meyer both have question marks but could bring back something in return, if the Twins were so inclined. I'll be honest and say that there's no realistic scenario where I'd be ok with Sano or Buxton being moved. But they do have some depth and if the return is a someone under a few years of control - either due to age or his contract, it's a solid idea. But it would be hard to find a solid trade that fits both teams. For example, arguably the best 10 LFers this year are Brantley, Gordon, Yelich, Marte, Upton, Cruz, Holliday, Cespedes, Gardner and Smith. Gordon, Brantley and Marte aren't going anywhere - they are key guys on playoff teams. Yelich is 22 and shouldn't be movable, even for Miami. Upton, Holliday, Smith and Gardner are all on the wrong side of 30. Cruz is a FA. Cespedes? Maybe Boston would listen.
  13. gunnarthor
    I gotta admit, that group doesn't look all that exciting. (Minier and maybe Thorpe might be the exceptions). Most of the guys are in low A or lower, are too old for the level they are at or had disappointing seasons in low levels. Last year, I think we had guys like May, Polanco, Santana and Vargas in our 11-20 range. Much better depth last year. And clearly, that's part of the ebb and flow of prospect lists but outside of our top 6, I'm not really excited about anyone in the minors like I was about May or Polanco.
  14. gunnarthor
    I hadn't really thought about this before yesterday, and I don't really have a view on who should be our next manager (although Souhan's Pro-Molitor article intrigued me). But this is what sorta surprised me as I thought about it - this is a big time plum job. A lot of guys would love to be the next Twins manager. They have an incredible amount of minor league talent coming up, a GM and FO with a reputation for loyalty. Would you rather manage the Twins or Astros right now? The Twins are (as ML teams go) pretty stable. The next manager will have to develop young players but that's true in most rebuilds. Ryan has an incredibly good reputation in baseball circles. I bet guys like Dave Martinez are really hoping to get interviewed for this job.
  15. gunnarthor
    I want Ozzie or Dougie Baseball.
  16. gunnarthor
    Wow, I was pretty sure he'd be back. Well, best of luck to him in the future and best of luck to Ryan in replacing him.
  17. gunnarthor
    Assuming Buxton and Sano are off limits, Hamels would probably require something like two of Meyer/Stewart/Berrios + Polanco and one more prospsect or MLer. And that might not be enough.
  18. gunnarthor
    I don't think any team would claim Goodrum and stash him on their ML roster. I wouldn't give up a 40 man space for him.
  19. gunnarthor
    The only opinion that matters is the Pohlads and they have never shown a tendency to let PR affect their position. They trust TR and so I expect he'll stay.
  20. gunnarthor
    Kind of a rough year for our hitters. Vargas might be something but I think the rest of the top 6 are all bench type, avg starters at best and many probably don't get past AA. Bummer.
  21. gunnarthor
    I haven't really studied the 2015 draft pool yet but with Aiken and Bickford eligible, we know that at least two good starting pitchers have been added to that depth. And it's nice to hear the draft is strong in HS bats since that's what the Twins like to take.
  22. gunnarthor
    I think Gardy stays next season but Dougie is brought up as a bench coach or a 3rd base coach or something to give him ML experience. And after next year (when the team flirts with or beats .500) Gardy steps down (like Kelly) and Dougie takes over.
  23. gunnarthor
    Nice write up. I don't know why but I'm really not worried about Arcia figuring this out. He's still young and has plenty of time to figure it out. And while he's figuring it out, he sure can punish a mistake pitch.
  24. gunnarthor
    It's cyclical, Mike. Miami's last winning season was in 09, Washington had 6 straight losing seasons (including being the worst team two years in a row), SF had 4 losing seasons before having 4 winnings seasons (and having another losing season last year). Only St Louis seems immune from the typical w/l cycle that the Twins are going through (and they had a few things going for them in that run that the Twins didn't have).
  25. gunnarthor
    Meyer did miss two months last year with a shoulder injury. I don't think any team would have brought him up in that circumstance. This year it's a more open question but I think the Twins wanted to see him healthy and not worry about getting ML hitters out.
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