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gunnarthor
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Everything posted by gunnarthor
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Article: Sano Ain't Harmon
gunnarthor replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I was an immigration attorney for a decade or so and one of the really interesting things (at least to me) was that many of my clients signatures looked different if they were signing it in Spanish or English, despite it being the same name and alphabet. You'd never think it was the same person's signature.- 38 replies
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Article: Twins Extend Phil Hughes
gunnarthor replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nice deal for the Twins and it lets Hughes get one more big shot at FA when he's 32. Good for both of them. -
Article: Can Aaron Hicks Be Fixed?
gunnarthor replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I thought he passed the eye test in general but he did have some perplexing bad games where everything seemed to drop around him. His arm is legit, for sure. -
Article: Can Aaron Hicks Be Fixed?
gunnarthor replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think Hicks should start the season in AAA and stay there until the bat comes around. Maybe give up switch hitting (although at this late stage I really don't think it'll help). But the Twins should not expect anything out of him until he hits more. -
Article: Twins Select JR Graham, Lose Gilmartin
gunnarthor replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like this pick, I might have gone with Cody Martin over Graham. Still, I like the idea of seeing what we might have in Graham. A pitcher coming back from injuries does have some red flags but if he does come all the way back, he could be pretty good. If not, he could be a strong pen piece. -
Article: Rule 5 Draft: What To Expect?
gunnarthor replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/prospects/index.jsp The easy way to access their prospect stuff is to just type in www.mlbpipeline.com - that's the front page for all the minor league stuff, including the rule v draft.- 26 replies
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Article: Rule 5 Draft: What To Expect?
gunnarthor replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That said, Berardino tweets that the Twins are on Graham- 26 replies
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Article: Rule 5 Draft: What To Expect?
gunnarthor replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
My guess is that the Twins take DeShields if he's there when they pick, if not, they'll nab one of the Atlanta pitchers (Martin or Graham).- 26 replies
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Article: Rule 5 Draft: What To Expect?
gunnarthor replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Cody Martin - also from Atlanta - could be a good fit. Twins drafted him previously. He put up pretty solid numbers in AAA last year (10th in k/9 among starters) and the Twins would have seen him a few times since he's in the international league.- 26 replies
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Article: Twins Preparing To Make Their Pitch
gunnarthor replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Of the FA pitchers, I'd be ok with Masterson. I'd rather go with May, Meyer, Milone than the others. No way should Liriano come back. He's the crazy ex-girlfriend. You broke up for a reason, don't forget that. Ryan could also make a trade or two to add to the pitching depth (in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins added Cody Martin in the rule v draft and gave him every opportunity to win the 5th spot).- 48 replies
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Article: Time to Cash In for Jay Bruce
gunnarthor replied to nicksaviking's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm not opposed to the idea of trying to grab someone like Bruce (or others in CIncy) but not at that price. -
Not sure. It could turn out ok if some things break right. Hicks could be a good defender in left, maybe Buxton rushes to the majors. In any event, I doubt most players put much stock in defensive numbers. Fangraphs had a few articles on that last year and most players don't know about WAR, UZR etc. But a lot probably think "hey, Hunter, he's good." And leave it at that.
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Article: Torii Hunter Signing Is Hard To Figure
gunnarthor replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think, from what I've read from players, it's Hunter's encouragement that has been helpful. He's not going to make a bad player good. But he might be able to get a player to better understand the daily grind, the problems of giving away at bats, leaving personal stuff at home, not worrying too much about an 0-7 stretch etc etc which might make them better at baseball. A lot of people in LA loved how Hunter kept the team together after the young pitcher was killed in that car accident. -
i don't disagree that he's a bad fielder at this point. My problem is that I don't think defensive stats are accurately measured or accurately valued. So we may be multiplying a wrong number with another wrong number to create a (negative) value that is not consistent with reality. (We have seen that before, to a lesser extent, with Orlando Hudson). That Hunter seems to be at the extreme end, one year being so-so and two years after being terrific, makes me think that there is a lot of noise in the numbers. I'm also expecting that Molitor will move his OFers around a bit more than what may have happened in Detroit. He is old, he could turn into a pumpkin over night. But he hit pretty well last year and I think TF is a better place for his swing. So if he can put up a 110 OPS+ again, I think the Twins will be in good shape. But if his bat goes (and it's certainly possible), we might have two tough months of Hunter before he is let go.
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These are my problems/concerns with the Hunter defense is horrible gang 1) Defensive stats, on a single year, are not that reliable. Two years ago, Hunter was consider a better RFer than Stanton by the stats. Yet everyone is burying him on last years numbers. 2) We fans are way too trusting of the numbers. Joe Posnanski just quoted Bill James who stated that he flat out hated WAR and thought the numbers were phoney. Every article will have a "the numbers aren't perfect" disclaimer and then use those numbers to say what they want them to say. 3) As bad as his defensive numbers were in one year, they weren't as bad as Cuddyer's in 10, 11 and 13 yet people seem a lot more forgiving of Cuddy's defensive limitations than Hunter's. I think there's an unsaid expectation that the slow looking white guy is trying as hard as he can and Hunter might be loafing on lazy fly balls. 4) I think RF in Comerica is one of the hardest RF to play and Detroit CFers didn't seem to be very helpful in covering extra ground. That might be a way the Twins can protect Hunter. (A reminder, when Hudson came to the Twins in 2010, similar concerns were voiced. Klaw noted that the Twins would probably do a better job of shifting than the Dodgers and Arizona had an he expected a bounce back defensive season. That's what happened). All that said, I'm not sure RF in TF is much easier. 5) Lastly, defensive stats don't have to even out. Most players are in the negative. In the AL, CFers combined for a -20 value last year.
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Article: Torii Hunter Signing Is Hard To Figure
gunnarthor replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think everyone is putting more stock in defensive stats than needed. Two years ago, defensive stats had Hunter as a better RF than Stanton. Last years numbers could have a lot of noise in them - esp for playing RF in Comerica. His RH bat might play a lot better in TF, too, if he's still a pull hitter. -
Article: Torii Hunter is Returning to the Twins
gunnarthor replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
None of those things are relevant to your proposal. Maybe those things Hunter does, while horrible in your eyes, are the things that the people running the team think the locker room needs. Maybe, with their experience around the sport, and your aversion to "the baseball codes," perhaps the people with the best knowledge of locker room dynamics and what is and isn't needed in them aren't posting on TD? -
Article: Early Offseason Rumors
gunnarthor replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've been a big supporter of Masterson - I think last year was an injury caused problem and his GB rate and K rates would make a good transition to TF. I like Hunter as a 4/5th OF type, but not as a starter. If he's willing to do that, I'm ok with it. Rios does nothing for me. As others have mentioned, Rasmus might be a more entertaining attempt. -
Article: Who's The Next Phil Hughes?
gunnarthor replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've been a big advocate for Masterson and hope they pursue him like they did Hughes. -
Article: Can St. Paul Save the Twins?
gunnarthor replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Well, the reality is Mauer isn't going to be the best player on any Twins team going forward. Molitor's ability to get Arcia, Hicks, Gibson, May, Meyer etc to become good everyday MLers is going to be a lot more important than whatever we get out of Mauer at this point. -
Signing Torii Hunter Doesn't Make Sense
gunnarthor commented on Cody Christie's blog entry in North Dakota Twins Fan
Depends on his role. Shouldn't be brought in as a starter but I'd be ok with a 4th OFer role. -
I think the Twins job would be a great opening for nearly all managers and Maddon would be nuts to not want it. BUT he likely has better options/more money elsewhere. He'll get 5-6m or more a year and the Twins aren't going to spend that on a manager. (Heck, they won't spend that on a LFer next year). I still think it'll be Molitor but Lovullo could get it.
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Why do people think he's a good manager? I'm not saying he isn't but I'm wondering what they are basing it on. His teams actually under perform their pyth w/l records. He shifts a lot but most of that is supposed to come from the FO and he just implements it. His record in one run games changes a bunch year to year (like most managers). Success with a small payroll team? Good clubhouse atmosphere? Development of young players? Developing scrappy teams that fight? I think all of those things have their pros and cons.