Trov

From the rumors we are willing to offer a contract to Correa that is comparable. The question is will he want to take it? Will he just go to highest bidder, and if so who will that be? Rumors are already 2 players took smaller contracts but still had huge contracts either way. I am not surprised Correa is waiting out, that is normal Boras advice. Bogarts did not hold out because he got offer no other team would have been willing to match, so jump on it. However, both Correa and Rodon are in bidding wars. They will continue to bounce offers between those teams to get his max amount. Sometimes this may backfire, but when at least 3 teams are bidding, if not more, and only 2 SS out there, easy to keep asking for me. There can always be a team no one expects to swoop in, like we did last year to sign CC to begin with. The teams just need to decide how long will they wait, and how high will they go. Some might pivot and bow out of bidding, which is a risk CC faces. However, I think he can keep holding out for awhile to get best deal for himself.

I do not see PIT trading him this offseason. Maybe at deadline or next offseason but not this one. Unless they get blown away by a deal. Even if Reynolds will not sign long term, they do not have to trade him right now, they have time.

Do their fans really feel like they have a chance? They started spending big on FA and making tons of trades back in 2018. Hosmer deal really started it. They finished 66-96 in 2018. 2019, they finished 70-92, both last place finishes, despite then spending big on Machado. Then 2020, they finally got out of basement but still second place. 2021, third place again below 500 at 79-83, despite trading for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. This year they bounced back some, even without having Tatis play, so they do have hope, with other trades and deals they have made. However, I would not say they have a big chance being their team still continues to have holes despite them throwing money and every prospect they have at filling them. They are choosing one way to build a team, but I would say it is a flawed way in my opinion. Are Twins building it the best way, maybe not either. I still say team building comes down to player development. If you cannot develop your own players through draft, international signings, it really does not matter you teams will still have holes. Rumors are Twins are willing to spend more, the question is will the players sign with them? Should we throw bad money at players like Hosmer, who everyone said was overpaid at the time, simply to say we spent big? I mean we could go out and offer Andrew Benintendi 10 years and 200 mil, just to say we spent big, but is he really worth 20 mil a year? I am not hearing anyone saying he is. We could offer Chris Bassitt 40 mil a year too, just to say we signed a pitcher, but should we? I am not saying we should not try to sign CC or Rodon if the money works, but if they sign elsewhere we should not just go and spend the money we were going to on the next best option just because we have the money to spend.

A few things. If you are saying the markets are similar, but you point out Padres are only team around, in all major sports, but MN has many major sports teams, so to compare the two seem a little odd. Now if you are saying because each only has 1 baseball team with similar market okay lets go from there. Now, we do not know what the actual books look like. For all we know Padres are losing money right now, or barely breaking even. We also do not know if the Twins are raking in money, or barely breaking even. Those decisions of what to spend is up to the owner. Neither should be expected to lose money, and how much they make that is also up to them. In addition, Padres did not start spending until 2018. Until then they were a well below average payroll. In 2018, they surprised people with big FA deal for Hosmer, then in 2019, Machado, and other players as years went on. They continued to make big splashes and move up to top of payrolls. Has it translated to wins, not really. They are trying to build winner through trades and big FA deals. They have yet to build a good winning team, despite brining in big time FA, and trading for top prospects. Could the Twins spend like Padres, yes. Will it mean wins, no. You need to spend smart, still make good trades, and draft well. Rumors are we are willing to spend big on Correa, and we had offered larger contracts on players that have signed else where. Just because you have money to spend does not mean you should spend it on bad players. Look at how Angels have continually spent bad on players over the years. Despite having the best player of this generation, they have only made playoffs 1 time with him. They kept spending on top FA only to not make playoffs for years.

That is basically the point I was trying to make. It is to address the fans that think simply if Twins offer biggest contract for a player that player will sign with us. I get annoyed when I read comments of see how cheap we could have got this player for and how they are doing. However, we do not know if we could have signed that player for even a similar contract, it may have taken much much more to get the player to sign with us, for whatever reason.

After many off seasons I read people post about how Twins should have signed player x because the contract was a good one and if only the Twins would have offered that it would have been good. I normally comment that we do not know if the Twins did offer anything, or if the player had any interest in the Twins anyways. This is not like a fantasy draft of auction where highest bid wins. Recently, there was rumors of two players the Padres offered contracts to that were significantly more money, but similar annual value. First Turner signed 11 year 300 mil contract with Philly, rumor was Padres offered 342 million, no details on years, but imagine it would have been a year more most likely. Turner said no to an extra 42 million, and no way will he make that up after his 11 year contract is done, as he will be 40 and doubt anyone offers him a 1 year 42 million deal. Then Aaron Judge signs 9 year 360 deal with Yankees, but rumor is he was offered 10 year 400 deal by Padres. Similar, no way will a team offer him 1 year 40 million at age 39, so he left 40 million on table. In both cases, players turned down 40 million, according to rumors, to sign with a different team. Now of course, when you are still getting over 300 mil, pretty easy to say no to extra 40, but that is still a lot to turn down. I mean it is still over 10 percent total value. In Judge's case it was same annual value, but 1 extra year. So it got me thinking, how much more, does some teams need to offer to get players to come, and what if any do other factors play in. Fans and reporters speculate that returning home plays a factor but for these two it had nothing to do with that, as Turner is from FL, and Judge is from California, central not south, but still he rejected more money and his home state. I do think some players it does play a roll though, some even say it does. Some speculate that the states tax laws play into it. Specifically, Texas has no income tax so the player will take home more of their money, and CA has a high income tax, so maybe that is why players rejected Padres, because their financial planner told them the take home would be less. Not sure how it compares to NY or PA exactly though. I do know PA generally has a 3% flat income tax regardless of how much you make, I lived and worked there for a few years. Each city has a working tax too, which I do not know what Philly working tax is if any for athletes. NY cost of living is similar to CA. Maybe it is just where the players feel the team is at for championships. Maybe in Judge case he did not want to leave where he has a huge fan base. Turner has been moved around in his career. Twins have been rumored to be offering various different contracts for Correa, will we have to offer the most? Will we need to offer a huge amount more than other teams? Will we get some kind of discount? What will Correa care more about? I do think some players will be swayed by more money from other teams. For example if team A offers 100 mil over 5 years, but team B offers 120 mil over 6 years, they will take the offer B, but some will take offer A in hopes of earning more next contract, if they can get one. Some care about overall value, where others care about annual value. Some care about other things once they reach a certain amount of money. I feel players that are making less overall, can be swayed by an increase. For example, 10% increase may make little difference to someone already earning 300 mil, but to someone offered 10 mil, but then someone offered 11 mil, will that make the difference, that extra million? Is it he actual dollar amount, or the percent increase? Meaning, would one player not see much of difference in a 20 to 22 million, 10% increase, but a 10 to 12, 20% increase, but same dollar amount increase? I know many factors go into each players call. I just think the rumors of Padres offers should show to fans, that think just if the Twins offered a little more we would get a player is not accurate, as some players have turned down huge amounts of extra money, for whatever reason.

Personally I try to shy away from HS arms high in draft. They are so hard to really project. Yes, some become some of the best, but some fully flop too, they are the biggest high risk high reward kind of guys. Not that college pitchers are locks either though, but they tend to be ale to fly through minors faster and contribute faster too.

Padres have been throwing crazy lengths and money to all kind of guys that snubbed them. First Turner turned them down for less money, then Judge took less money, so they went big. I am not sure if it shifts the market for CC or not. I mean the annual value is not super high, only just over 25 a year. No opt outs, or options, just full no trade. I do not think anyone was expecting that length for him.

I think some are reading the article as they should be traded, or even will be, but it is just stating they are the most tradeable at this time. Mainly, it is based on where they are at in organization, and possible trade value at this time. All are pretty high at this point. I agree I would not look to move really any of them, but if you can get the right player back no guy is off limits in my mind. Of course much depends on other moves. Should we sign CC for long term, well that locks up SS and or 3b for many years,(depending on details of contract) which makes Lee and Lewis more expendable, if you do not plan to move positions. That is exactly why Steer was easy to move. We already had many IF prospects that are boarder line SS with decent bats. Even if he goes on to be a good player for Reds, people will need to compare him not to what we got in trade, but to who we sign, if anyone at SS, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Miller, and Julien, all guys that are in similar roll. Also, Mirana and Arraez would need to be considered as they would play similar position as Steer. That is a lot of other players that could all have better time with Twins than Steer would have. I have no player in mind I would move any of those guys for, but if you can get a young controllable top end pitcher, which SWR could be for ourselves, you have to listen to offers. I would not like moving any of them right now for a 1 to 2 year guy. The only one I would be open at this time for a 1 to 2 year pitcher is Julien, as he may be a great hitter, but his defense is suspect from what I hear. We cannot have an infield of Miranda, (SS to be determined) Julien, Arraez or something like that.

I believe the draft lottery benefits the teams that are near the playoffs that got that chance to move up. There really is very little difference between number 10 and 15, but a big difference between 5 and 10, generally in MLB drafts. I also feel there is much less of a difference between 1 and 5 than 5 and 10. Unlike in NBA where there is normally a clear number 1 or 1 and 2, MLB rarely has a clear number 1. Also, number 1 generally have decent MLB careers, but rarely do they actually end up being the best in their draft. This is why I have long said teams do not tank for the number 1 pick, they tank for other reasons. One, is to have higher picks to have more money to spread around for later round picks to sign over slot value, have more international money to spend, sometimes get competitive balance picks to use or trade, and to suppress service time of their top prospects. I am happy for Twins moving up to the 5th pick, as that pick is much more likely to help at MLB level than the 13th, but you never know. However, if you look back, very rarely, is the number 1 pick the best player in a draft. Now, they still have a great chance to be a good player, the number 1 overall is rarely a complete bust as well.

Judge bet on himself and won. He turned down like 218 mil, had one of best seasons of anyone in recent years, now get 360 over 9. He is now one of top paid guys per year. I think the price for CC just went up. Do not think it will quite be at that average value, mainly because Judge is a power hitter, and they tend to age better than non power hitters. CC has power, but not a power hitter. I still do not expect CC to sign by end of meetings, Boras clients at least the top ones, normally hold out until closer later in off-season.

It depends on when the opt outs are and how much he has left on the deal. This past deal we all knew he was going to opt out barring injury. But there are many players recently that have opted in because chances were they would not get the same level on FA. Of course that means we are overpaying, but not that he has no value. If there are multiple opt outs at 10 years, odds are it will be after 3 or 4 and after 6 or 7, and maybe after like 9. I doubt it will be like this past deal that is after each year, no team would agree to 10 year opt out after each season.

I would like to see the data on that, not saying it is not there, but find it may not be super accurate. One thing, does that data take into account the few hits he gets because of the shift, or just the hits he maybe would not have got due to the shift? Also, is it based on assuming range led to the ground ball being stopped because of the depth of the 2nd baseman, or position of SS on right side of base? Meaning, did the 2nd baseman have to move left or right to stop the ball and only because of depth they managed to cut it off? Is this also based on if the 2nd baseman was in a standard position for RH hitter, or old traditional position for LH hitter? Even without playing deeper into the RF, many 2nd basemen would still play much closer to 1st. Again, I am not saying the data is wrong, but I would love to see it to see if it is flawed. I personally did not watch every at bat over the past year for Max or past years. However, I do not recall seeing too many balls that were smoked to a hole between 1st and 2nd where the 2nd baseman makes a great ranging play to throw out Max. I would normally see him hit many weak ground balls that would have been cut off at normal depth. I also recall seeing a few balls he hit where a SS would have normally been that he got hits on, so that should count against the count of hits lost because of shift, because he got some hits because of shift too. That being said, I am more than happy to keep Max this year as I doubt he will have much trade value, and you do not just trade a guy because he is not playing to the level you hope, because normally what you get back is not much value either.

I do not know if is plus ten because of Turner. Turner took more years at less per year than many expected. Will Correa want more overall money, or more per year? I agree 10 is most likely the number, and maybe some teams will go longer, but if it goes longer, my guess their per year number will be less. Remember Soto turned down a 14 year deal that would have set the all time overall value, but he turned it down saying his per year is not that of the other top paid guys. None of know what CC is thinking, and the next few days to weeks will be a ton of rumors and speculation.

Only way Rodon gets 6 years is if a desperate team thinks he is their savor that will carry them, or a team like Phillies who think they are just 1 pitcher away from a ship and will eat the last 3 to 4 years and have a ton of old talent in next 3 years and will deal with huge overpaid guys for many years, like Nationals dealt with to win a Ship 1 year.

Kepler has low trade value. He is a defensive minded RF who does not hit at an elite level. If a team overvalues him, and see the numbers underlying and think he has just had bad luck his whole career, and now with the no shifts he will becomes something amazing, I would trade him in a heart beat. First, as the writer points out, his batted ball numbers to output have never lined up. Every year people will write about how he will break out because of those things. However, they forget there has to be outliers to the norm, that is just a fact. Kepler is an outlier, he is not just the most unlucky hitter ever. In terms of the shift, I do not think it will make much of a difference to Kepler, at least not enough to go to a .300 hitter or anything. Sure, he will not ground out in short right, but unless that 2nd baseman had to range one way or the other, no matter how deep the player is they will stop the ground ball right at them. There is nothing preventing the 2nd basemand from playing deep in the hole, and the SS playing just one inch to the left of the base, still leaving huge holes to left side of infield, and defending the middle, having the 2nd baseman closer to first. This will leave a hole about 4 to 5 feet to right of 2nd base that he will have to place the ball. The only hits he will get without the shift are the liners or hard ground balls where the 2nd baseman had to range far from their short right position.

I agree, it is very player friendly, which is why it shows they are serious about bringing him back. If he walks away it is not because we did not offer him a player friendly deal, unless the money is low. No rumors on what the money offers have been. Borras loves to hold out and watch the market start to develop, so he can use the lack of supply to increase the bidding. Turner just took a deal, taking a top SS of the market. Sure it decreases teams bidding on Correa, but now the teams left know there is one less pivot open.

Just saw Turner signed 11 year 300 mil. Wonder how that will affect Correa. Turner took more years less per year, but Correa is considered better. No details yet on if any opt outs.

On thing to note about Kirby, is that was back when no top stars left, because the league had the wink wink we will not outbid you for your star and keep the salaries low. That is why there was the 95 strike because teams were not offering much to big name FA. Sure some would jump ship around then, Bonds, who went to his home town, or guys at ends of careers when other teams were done with them. This is a top guy in a market where guys keep moving.

Dougie from KSTP and Dougie with the Scoop, said on news last night, that rumors are Twins plan to meet with Correa and have been willing to offer 10 year deal, full no trade, multiple opt outs. No rumor as to money, and if they are offering most overall, but it sure shows how much they are willing to offer. If we do not sign him, if the rumor is true, they sure tried. View full rumor

I fully agree. Everyone was all upset about Baddoo because he went off right away. Then he hit huge slump, to bounce back a bit. Then last year he was terrible, and was unplayable for a team that was basically out of the race in April. People forget to protect players from the rule 5 draft you need to release other players off the 40 man roster. Very few people could say who they would have cut to protect Baddoo, they just were mad. I do not wish him any bad outcomes, but he was ranked where he was on prospect list for a reason.

I would like to point out that the June starts were after a stint with COVID, so one should expect some issues being he was getting back into game shape. Also, he had good starts against Boston his first start against them, Texas, Giants, and Brewers, who all scored more runs on the season that Padres. It is not like he only shut down poor scoring line ups. A lot of pitchers had bad starts against some of those teams. All pitchers have bad starts. To cherry pick his blow up starts against some of the best teams in baseball, but to not point out that he still had good starts against other teams that had scored more runs than some, but say it was just shutting down bad offenses is not telling a true story.

Trade him or not, either is a risk. He still has possible upside, but his downside is just as strong. If as a team you feel more value from the trade, do it, but if offers are not there, why just give him away now, you can do that anytime.

Based on his FB someone will take him most likely if they can stash him in pen for year. Will they regret it, maybe, but for next year I doubt it. He has heat, but is not dominate so far. Heat at MLB will not get you far if you do not have location or movement, you will just get hit hard.