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Everything posted by Doomtints
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Article: Thank You Moderators!
Doomtints replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thanks mods! -
Blockbuster trades seem to be more about $$$, as in one team once to unload. A team gutting its farm system for a couple of short term players seems to be the exception to the rule. It doesn't happen often. A team might give up a prospect it likes, but I don't see many teams having all of their worthy minor league players sent packing. Twins fans seem to be particularly bad at using the Appeal to Extremes fallacy. It's pretty much guaranteed this card will be played in any discussion about acquiring talent or payroll. We hear this so often anyone brings up free agency, you would think there were a snowball's chance in hell this team could go bankrupt. Worrying about cash for this team is something none of us should be doing. Ditto with the horror scenarios thrown around by making trades. When was the last time you remember the Twins being BUYERS for a trade? Even the Nathan trade was the actually the Twins trying to unload somebody else. Maybe we can let them try it just once before we declare doomsday.
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BTW, ByungHo dropped the hyphen a couple of years ago. We should follow suit seeing that he's a Twins alum. Let the writers/fans in other markets get it wrong, not us. It's the least we can do. The bigger question, is his 0.1 WAR enough to get him into the Twins HOF? Where do his 12 dingers rank in Twins history?
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Article: Official Winter Meetings Day 0 Thread
Doomtints replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The price drops because they were always worth less. The agents knew it, the player knew it, and the teams knew it. As jimmer aptly put it above, the big dogs eat first. The weaker predators get the scraps.- 66 replies
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- derek falvey
- thad levine
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Article: The Impending Rochester Rotation Crunch
Doomtints replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
None of these guys are #1s/#2s, or probably even #3s. They Twins still need to pick someone up. The Santana train could derail, leaving the team with Berrios and....? The minor league depth helps for restocking the #4/#5 guys, but the team doesn't have enough top of the rotation guys who are ready to play ball.- 102 replies
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The Player's Union tends to get involved when teams try to do this. Back in the day, A-Rod accepted what the Player's Union called a paycut and the union got the contract thrown out. The union feared it would set a bad precedent. Plus, I don't see the Twins screwing with a player in this way or Mauer agreeing. Contracts in the NFL are not guaranteed so we see this sort of thing happen all the time in the NFL, but we rarely see it in baseball where the player holds all the leverage.
- 54 replies
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- joe mauer
- yu darvish
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Fix the pitching before extending position players who are not in a contract year. The Twins can probably save $ on Mauer by letting him hit free agency first anyway. I don't see him going anywhere, and if he does go somewhere, so what? The pitching can be addressed in 1 year if the Twins are smart, so it's not like position player contracts will be unresolved forever. Someone is itching to respond with "The Twins can do both" -- and sure, they could -- but so far we have seen nothing to suggest the Twins have changed their tight purse strings policy, and the Twins truly just have one immediate need right now.
- 54 replies
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- joe mauer
- yu darvish
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Not sure what your point is because you're arguing something that has nothing to do with what I asked. Did the Twins get a good deal? Were these players worth the lost $2M in "opportunity cost" (or whatever term you or anyone else choose to use)? Or should the Twins have used the money to pick up some international free agents? Did the new front office just help other teams more than what the Twins got in return?
- 140 replies
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- david banuelos
- shohei ohtani
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No "we" don't. The Twins lost this money. So, are these players collectively worth $2M?
- 140 replies
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- david banuelos
- shohei ohtani
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We seem happy that the Twins did something. But are these good values? Are each of these players worth $1M?
- 140 replies
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- david banuelos
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Article: The Twins Should Be Shopping Ervin Santana
Doomtints replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I dunno man. I have seen the "Trade Santana" argument ever since he first put on a Twins uniform, and I have seen countless people argue against raising payroll for years. We should: - Want to keep the best players we can, if possible, and - Not worry about the price. Fans don't need to be making these types of tough decisions, or concern ourselves with them! Sure, we should be realistic on what this team can do, but we often cross over into defending the team. -
Let's do some comparisons Note that there are only 75 pitchers in the HOF, including Babe Ruth.... Average HOFer / Santana Years played: 18 / 12 All Star Games: 4 / 4 bWAR: 70.0 / 50.4 Wins: 253 / 139 W%: 590 / .641 ERA: 2.98 / 3.20 Shutouts: 41 / 10 Games: 596 / 360 Strikeouts: 2153 / 1988 Let's do some basic extrapolation. Would Santana's WAR go to 70 with another 6 years of play? Doubtful. Would he get 120 more wins? Doubtful. Would his ERA drop to sub-.3.00? Doubtful. Would he get 30 more shutouts? No. Would he appear in another another 240 games? No. BUT... His W% and All Star Appearances show he was the best in his era. His strikeout total is right up against players who pitched careers 33% longer. I would vote FOR Santana to go into the HOF, and this isn't coming from me being a Twins fan. It comes from the dominance he had when he played. All playing longer would do is pad his stats, Santana proved he was the best pitcher in the game for a few years, and that's what the HOF should be about. The point is, even if Santana had played 18 years, he wouldn't be a shoo-in as far as all of these metrics are concerned, either! We have to judge Santana on who he was, not on what might have been, and he WAS the best pitcher in an era and he has a more than adequate sample size to know this wasn't a fluke!
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Article: Falvine Ready To Flex Muscles
Doomtints replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He didn't say it was an obvious outcome, he said they were in the chase. Of the teams you mentioned, the Twins had been the most consistent so there was no reason to expect their luck to run out. -
Article: Falvine Ready To Flex Muscles
Doomtints replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
All this muscle flexing is making me dizzy! -
Article: Twins Strike Out On Ohtani
Doomtints replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's difficult to imagine a modern MLB team or manager allowing a player to both hit and pitch beyond the requirements in the NL. Sure, a team would do that a few times or maybe for the first full year (it's a nice gimmick after all), but in the long (and medium) run, they would try to push him into one role or the other.- 68 replies
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- shohei ohtani
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Article: Hopes And Plans For Trevor May
Doomtints replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This gets repeated a lot. Where is it coming from? You can argue the Twins didn't give him enough of a chance (120 innings), but you can't argue he was performing acceptably as a starter (5.61 ERA, .817 OPS against). And don't forget, he was moved to the pen after a 6-run start where he only managed to get 1 out, and then a guy named Tyler Duffey was called up and kept exceeding expectations as a starter. May probably deserves another shot (esp. if it's May v. Duffey), but some of us have a narrative on May that forgets everything that happened in 2015.- 33 replies
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- trevor may
- john smoltz
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Article: Can Phil Hughes Surprise Us?
Doomtints replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would not be surprised if he surprises us. He might have another year left in his arm, he might fail miserably. It can go either way. -
Article: Twins Strike Out On Ohtani
Doomtints replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Seems like he wants to be close to home -- i.e., the West Coast. Hello, Dodgers.- 68 replies
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- shohei ohtani
- yu darvish
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Let's not derail the conversation into something about how NYC/Chicago/DC are just like every other big city in the country. They're not. I'm not talking about the size of the city. You have to spend some time in these cities to fully appreciate the superior public transportation (when the upper class uses the trains, you know they're good), the great food (you don't know how bad restaurants are elsewhere until you explore these cities), etc., etc. There's a reason the upper class hovers around these cities. If Ohtani is "lifestyle shopping" this is where he wants to go. As for LA, LA is the same as any other city in America apart from the weather. Sprawl, sprawl, sprawl. We can take this to a different forum if you want.
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Everything I have read about Ohtani, which could be BS, implies that he wants to go to a world-class city. I know many might disagree with this, but the USA really only has three of those -- New York, Chicago, and D.C. The rest of the big cities in the US are urban sprawl, strip malls, and chain restaurants. So if what I have read is correct, there are the 5 teams he could go to, 6 if you throw in Baltimore.
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bWAR isn't *really* including defense, It takes the average defense for the team and checks to see if the pitcher had better or worse defense behind him than what is usual for that team. It's not granular defense in that pitchers are penalized/awarded for defense, it's an attempt to level the playing field for pitchers.
- 61 replies
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- johan santana
- kirby puckett
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Article: The Twins Should Be Shopping Ervin Santana
Doomtints replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If you want to solve the problem of pitching, you don't sell off your best* pitcher without someone to take his place immediately, unless you want to prolong your pain.