Teflon

Tampa Bay might fit that assessment, but If you look at the offset win totals for teams (1997 -2012, assuming an average of three years between drafting and getting a prospect to the majors) Atlanta is second in total wins but also second on the list in the ROY metric. Oakland is 6th in wins over that period and 3rd on the list. Boston is third in total wins and 6th . Minnesota ranked 15th in wins over that period. If draft position was a factor, they should be middle of the road, not last.

http://images.onset.freedom.com/ocregister/gallery/m2ymrx-b78945001z.120120423182439000g9q1760s0.1.jpg The disappointing performance of the Twins prospects made me curious to see how the Twins compared with other teams in bringing good players to the majors. The quickest way to do this comparison was to look at the number of players receiving votes for Rookie of the Year since 2000 by team and to see, on average, what percentage of the votes they received. I then created a product of the two to power rank the teams. Guess where the Twins finished. For those of you with short attention spans, they are last. They have produced the worst assemblage of rookies in the major leagues since 2000 according to Rookie of the Year voters. (The list of those Twins rookies receiving Rookie of the Year Votes since the year 2000 is at the bottom.) You can't claim market-size bias on this information as the team at the top of the list is the Tampa Bay Rays. It just simply looks like the Twins do not bring players up to the majors who are ready - or all that good - and this has been the case for the entirety of the 21st century.

A wise man once said that nothing succeeds like succession. May have been Trump.

I believe if the rain delay lasts 5 innings it's an official game.

Rosamund's Father: "And what job do you do?" Ken Shabby: " I clean out public lavatories." Rosamund's Father: "Is there a promotion involved?" Ken Shabby: "Oh yeah, yeah. [Coughing] After five years, they give me a brush."

What I find curious is that Paul Molitor would have favored the Sano position switch as Molitor himself was frustrated and challenged by position shifts in his career - notably the move to CF in 1981 and the move to 3B in 1982. Sano is on the same path. RF is now his third professional position with a further change to first base likely in the future. Molitor was an agile, quick elite athlete, all-state in three sports at Cretin. If he was uncomfortable, someone with as much mass to move as Sano has got to be incredibly uncomfortable. The Brewers brought in a special outfield tutor for Molitor (Sam Suplizio) to help with his transition. I'm not aware that the Twins did anything with Sano prior to Spring Training.

I'm guessing the Twins have some kind of discounted fares. I know the Padres have frequent friar miles.

Speaking of "Outweigh"... Sano looks like he's getting to a tipping point athletically from a sheer mass perspective. His attempted slide into 2B in game 2 of the Orioles series was executed it as if he thought he was a 180-pounder and was expecting the physics to work the same way. Instead of a normal sized man sliding, however, a 270 pound man dug in to the ground and was jolted to a stop that looked like it would dislocate a knee. I haven't see anything that ugly since Kent Hrbek dug a three foot chunk out of the Target Field sod trying to slide after a foul ball in a Legends game. The Twins desperately need to pair Sano with a live-in nutritionist and personal trainer.

Will only depend on Sano staying healthy, striking out about 30% less and having other teams align their defenses as if there were no tendencies on him yet.

Miguel Sano had a freakishly high (unduplicatable) .396 batting average on balls in play last year (Babe Ruth's career BABIP was .340) but Sano still only managed to hit .269 because he struck out 118 times (!) in 80 games. It's hard to envision an MVP season for Sano with a BABIP that is sure to drop 50-75 points coupled with 200+ strike outs while also trying to learn a new position.

We saw Rosario's batting average on balls in play fall from the Kirby Puckett like levels he put up through July (.360) to numbers closer to league average (.300) in August and September as defenses and pitchers became more familiar with him. Rosario would need to put a LOT more balls in play in his at bats (that is to say strike out a LOT less) for there not to be a fall-off from last year's performance - let alone the improvement you're anticipating. I love watching Rosario play. His triples are a thing of beauty and he is a mensch on defense. I really hope he can cut down on his K's enough to stay an everyday player.

Little-known fact - Verne Ruhle, pictured on your rookie prospect card with Minnesotan Paul Siebert, surrendered the only home run Tom Kelly hit in his big league career. (5/26/1975)

Fun article. Pitch to contact was a much better concept with Jaques Jones, Matt Lawton, and a young Torii Hunter in the outfield to catch Radke's offerings than it was with Delmon Young, Ryan Doumit or Chris Parmelee to catch Nick Blackburn's.

I'm afraid that if Buxton improves too much the Twins will trade him for a mediocre National League pitcher.

People - baseball contracts are guaranteed. This is a pointless topic unless you have a time machine - and then only pertinent if you've exhausted all the other time-machine related quests like killing Hitler and buying up Apple stock.

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/2010/11/19/9ULHEmQ8.jpg My best comparison to successful outfield with a similar sized player to Sano would be the Pittsburgh Pirates when Dave Parker was in right. Parker was listed at 6-5 230 but was perceived to be larger. (Photo above suggests the same) Parker won 3 consecutive Gold Gloves because he had a deadly howitzer arm and, with Omar Moreno covering more area than Verizon in center, didn't have to have exceptional wheels. (We also have one of those Moreno-like center fielders, come to think of it.) Sano only needs to make sound decisions and accurate throws out there. (Be sort of an anti-Oswaldo Arcia) and this could work, fine. Not the ideal asthetic, I agree, but serviceable. What you DON'T want is for your center fielder to also have to cover ground to the other side - which he won't have to with Rosario or Kepler.

The return on investment to an owner of a professional sports franchise isn't derived from the bottom line of the year-to-year operations but in the obscene return on investment in the subsequent sale of the franchise. The average MLB team is worth 1.2 billion dollars. The Twins are probably worth a little less than that- say 900 million. Considering Carl Pohlad paid Calvin Griffith $32 million for controlling interest in 1984 - which correcting for inflation would still only be about $73 million - means that the Twins have earned the Pohlads a 1200% return. The Pohlads also received a (mostly) publicly-funded stadium which coincidentally sits in the middle of a bunch of property they own. It's hard for me to look at the Twins and not see the franchise as a diamond-encrusted golden hot dog stand that gets free government surplus buns, buys day-old wieners and charges customers $2 for a mustard packet. This is why rich people are rich, I guess.

Whoever was influencing player decisions in 2015 was doing something correctly. The Twins gave up 77 fewer runs in 2015 than in 2014 which is why they improved 13 wins. On defense, four players had defensive wins above replacement values of minus 1 or worse in 2014. Of those, only Oswaldo Arcia was back with the club in 2015 and he didn't come close to playing enough to be his usual calamity in the outfield. Result - overall defensive wins above replacement for the Twins improved 5 games. On the pitching mound, Twins pitchers get credit for the remaining 8 additional wins as Ervin Santana,and Kevin Jepsen were acquired, Kyle Gibson's role increased, Tyler Duffy emerged, and Trevor May, Tommy Milone and Mike Pelfrey pitched more effectively. Also, Kevin Correia, Anthony Swarzak, and Sam Deduno passed into Twins history and pure good luck limited Ricky Nolasco to only 37 innings.

The most pragmatic solution would be to have somebody other than Mauer at 1B in 2016 - preferably Park. Sano then plays DH where his defense and body mass index isn't an issue, Plouffe stays at 3B where he's become serviceable, Rosario and Buxton man left and center while right could go to anyone who can a.) expediently get to balls hit out there and b.) bat .260 with 10 HRs to account for the loss of Mauer's current production. (Actually Max Kepler is probably there now) Too bad that Mauer's contract is such a detriment to putting together a better lineup with this group of players- although the Twins front office could have helped matters by not acquiring more square pegs when they have round holes.

Speaking metaphorically, while having a smaller leak in the bottom of the boat is a better option than a bigger one - having no leak should actually be the design.

Wasn't Byung Ho Park a Gold Glove winner in Korea? Why wouldn't he start ahead of Mauer at 1B on an all-defensive Twins team?

Thanks for your comment, Willi and for posting the video from the 1975 World Series. (It was good to hear a snippet of Curt Gowdy, too.) There's a really good SABR biography of Luis Tiant at the link below that also describes Tiant's reunion with his parents in 1975 after 14 years of separation: http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/2212deaf

http://www.clevescene.com/images/blogimages/2009/04/29/1241034084-tiant.jpg 1968 was a pinnacle of pitching in the Major Leagues. Denny McLain won 31 games for the Tigers and Bob Gibson compiled a legendary 1.12 ERA for the Cardinals while throwing 13 shutouts. Easy to miss when browsing through the performances from that year was a Cleveland pitcher who went 21-9 with a 1.60 ERA, 264 strikeouts and only 152 hits allowed in 258 innings. When seen today, those numbers could easily be mistaken for something from the back of a Sandy Koufax baseball card - but those impressive pitching results didn’t belong to a Brooklyn-born lefty but a Cuban born right-hander named Luis Tiant. When Castro took control of Cuba, Luis was a 19-year old playing in the Mexican League. Being outside the country when the island was seized meant he could continue his career in baseball but also meant that he would not be able to return to his homeland or see his family again for many years. Tiant was signed by the Indians organization and pitched in the minors until 1964 when his 15-1 record for the Portland Beavers of the Pacific Coast League made it clear that the 23-year-old Tiant was ready for the big leagues. (Tommy John and Sudden Sam McDowell were also on that Portland pitching staff and would join Tiant with the Indians that year) Luis pitched in 19 games for Cleveland in the second half of the 1964 season making 16 starts and going 10-4. Over the next three seasons with Cleveland, Tiant was only 35-31 but led the American League in shutouts in 1966 and in strikeouts per 9 in 1967. In 1968, it all came together for Tiant. After a slow start to the season (1-2) Tiant shut out the next four opponents in succession, including a three-hitter against the Twins on May 19th. By the end of June, he was 12-5. The first start for Luis in July would be at home against Jim Merritt and the Twins. Merrit would be tough that day, limiting the Tribe to no runs and only 4 hits over 9 innings. Tiant, however, was masterful that day. He kept the Twins off the scoreboard for 9 innings as well, striking out 16. In the 10th, Rich Reese led off with a double to right for the Twins and Frank Quilici sacrificed him to third, reaching first base safely on a fielder’s choice. Tiant struck out the next batter, catcher Johnny Roseboro. Twins manager Cal Ermer sent in Rich Rollins to pinch hit for shortstop Jackie Hernandez. Tiant struck out Rollins. Jim Merritt, the pitcher, was due up next and Ermer chose not to pinch hit. Merritt had been impossible to solve for Cleveland that day and Ermer wanted to have him for the 10th. Tiant struck out Merritt. Tiant had come up with three strikeouts in the tenth to keep a shutout in order after having a runner at third with no outs. Merrit took the mound for the bottom of the 10th. Indians left fielder Lou Johnson led off with a single and took second on shortstop Cesar Tovar’s miscue on the play. (Tovar had played at third base all day and had just moved to short after Ermer pinch hit Rollins for Hernandez.) The next batter for Cleveland was catcher Joe Azcue who singled in Johnson to win the game. Tiant had a 10-inning shutout with 19 strikeouts. Luis continued to pitch great through July, improving his record to 17-6. August was a different story, Tiant struggled. He lost three starts and pitched in three no-decisions. After pitching a complete game on August 10th, he made 5 consecutive early exits, the last three all being less than 6-inning efforts. On September 9th, Luis Tiant took the mound at Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington looking for his 20th win. He would once again match up against Jim Merritt. Minnesota got on the scoreboard early as thirdbaseman Graig Nettles homered in the bottom of the first. That would be all the scoring for the Twins, however, as Tiant only surrendered four more hits and struck out 16. Cleveland had no problems with Merritt this time around and won handily, 6-1. After picking up his 20th win, Tiant was shelved by the Indians for 12 days before making a two-inning relief appearance against the Angels. Following that, Tiant made one last start on September 25th. It was a gem – a 3-0 blanking of the Yankees in the Bronx although barely 5,000 were on hand to see it. Tiant held the Yankees to a single hit that afternoon (Mickey Mantle) and struck out 11. In looking back on Luis Tiant’s 1968 season, he led the American League in ERA, shutouts, and fewest hits per 9 innings. He was third in strikeouts behind his Portland/Cleveland teammate Sam McDowell and the Tigers’ Denny McLain. (Denny McLain took home both the Cy Young and MVP awards.) When applying newer metrics, Tiant was clearly the best starting pitcher his league, however, leading the AL in Adjusted Pitching Wins, Base-Out Runs Saved, Win Probability Added, and Fielding Independent Pitching.