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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Twins All-Decade Team, the '80s (The Hitters)
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not going to replace Ward as he was very good. He is deserving. But it is really hard not to argue Hatcher and Gladden as good as or better options for their contributions and time frame.- 13 replies
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- kirby puckett
- kent hrbek
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(and 3 more)
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The Show Must Go On: First Place! (Barely)
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Arguing with the simulator and not you. 1] I don't buy Cleveland's 11 game losing streak, but didn't buy their 11 game winning streak either. So balance. 2] Don't buy the Dirty Sox being that good. 3] I think the sim is being unfair to Cruz's age, but slumps do happen. 4] Love what Oddo is doing, don't agree with the results from Berrios. One interesting thing I've noted from all the various sims is Cleveland getting off to a hot start. Don't know if that is the algorithm looking at past performance, rotation pieces or early season opponents. But...interesting. I also believe in drafting the BPA and voted as such. The draft is such a crapshoot and wait and see that I hate to draft for need. Especially considering the system is pretty well stocked overall at this point. And the FO seems to gravitate towards pure upside and look at developmental arms beyond the 1st round. HOWEVER, my final decision could change quickly when presented with options on both sides. Love to see a HS/college list of 3-4 guys available at our pick, however unfair that option might be to ask. -
Hey, curious about your comment on the Twins needing to cut payroll next year. Is that based on existing payroll and arbitration numbers for 2021 etc, or is it based on current payroll and loses from an abbreviated 2020 season? Different sites I glance at have the 2020 payroll between $131-137M. They all seem to calculate slightly differently, but I don't believe any of the numbers I saw factor in the $10M from the Dodgers for this season. So just curious as to your thoughts.
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I had missed the arbitration arrangement Matthew states for 2021 if there is no season. Makes sense. Regardless of that fact: 1] Rosario had an OK year and was on pace for a really nice year until injury. We've all been down this arguement already. And what is the new statistic that was just written about here a month or so ago? I want to say it was weighted RBI? A measurement not just of RBI but taking advantage of said opportunities successfully, and it indicated he had a very good year, injury slide notwithstanding. 2] Even if arbitration $ weren't "frozen" for 2021 if no season, the budget could surely allow for another approximately $3M to keep Rosario for at least another season. (Even with $ possibly coming off the books, even though that's not guaranteed due to possible re-signings). 3] Even if Rooker, Larnach and Kirilloff had complete 2020 seasons, that certainly doesn't guarantee any of them are ready to step in for Rosario, though it seems highly likely. They still have to have healthy and productive seasons to seize opportunity. And Marwin is part of the fall back option and there is no guarantee he is re-signed. And at this point, we don't even know if milb will exist in any format even if MLB gets in an abbreviated season. I will be shocked if Rosario isn't with the Twins through 2021.
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The Greatest Twins Season that Never Happened
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Koskie before Justin. Mauer just after. What a damndable curse! Injuries happen, of course, but has any team had such a run of concussion injuries to impact so many great ballplayers? Oh, what might have been for all three.- 7 replies
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- minnesota twins
- justin morneau
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Twins Daily Writers: Get to Know 'Em!
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
And I'm going to give a tip of the old cap to myself, lol, and you and all the members at TD for their blogs, posts and commentaries. This is TRULY the best site around! The owners, writers, moderators and even us posters should all be complimented. This is not hyperbole. I read other sites for Twins, Vikings and the such. And I peruse the comment sections here and there and they are filled with vitriol and foul language and attacks that are just ugly at times. To be fair, my own personal vonacular is littered with cuss words and not everyone on other sites are rampart idiots. But TD is unique and special. Very special. -
Twins Daily Writers: Get to Know 'Em!
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thieres's love for American sports is fascinating stuff. Really interesting to know more about the staff as a whole. But man do I feel old, lol. -
You're Going To Love Watching Baseball This Year
DocBauer replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I hesitated posting anything here as I don't want anything I say to be misconstrued or wrongly interpreted. But here goes. To be clear, this is NOT just about baseball. It's about all sports, and movie theaters, and bars, restaurants, take your pick. It's about life being normal again. OK? But I do love baseball and the Twins. I so want baseball and my beloved Twins. And I appreciate John's hope and optimism, even as I still feel trepidation that there will be no season, or a season we just never fully embrace due to some unusual context of how it plays out. At 54yo and in decent shape and largely good health, having suffered in my mid 20's through a very bad case of walking pneumonia, and since then very susceptible to just about all flu bugs, I remain very concerned. More so for my still healthy 76yo father. But at some point, the curve and isolation, testing, possibly/hopefully a cure, warm and humid weather, thjs virus will begin to pass, as all due. At some point, and I have no clue when that will be, there will have to be a move made towards normalcy, baseball included. No matter what, we will all have to come out of hiding, businesses will open, and we will all begin to return to normal. When this happens, someone, somewhere, will get sick again. Worse, they may become deathly ill. I am NOT insensitive to this virus, or any virus, or any disease to anyone! But the reality is life. And before this current virus, there has always been disease and virus and sickness. Again, its part of life. Eventuaĺy, slowly, things will diminish and get better. Life will return to "normal" such as normal is. And while this is a strange and even frightening time, we simply can't crawl away and hide away forever. This too shall pass, as all things do. And when it does, life will go on, and sickness, with all its ramifications, will also continue. There is no escaping that fact. And if having to miss a full season of baseball somehow meant making a difference, then I'm all in. All I'm saying and rambling about is that at SOME POINT, someone somewhere will begin to make decisions for life and the world to move forward. And it will, as it's always done. Nothing will be perfect. Nothing will be absolute. But the human condition is resolute and stalwart and slowly and surely we will get back to normal. It would be great if baseball could be a harbinger of normalcy. But in the meantime, it is a waiting game, pun partially intended. -
3 Twins Who'll be Crushed if the Season is Lost
DocBauer replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Going to disagree on Garver and Buxton. Missing 2020 affects EVERYONE. But for Buxton, the issue remains avoiding freak injuries...(Jobu, bucket of chicken, good luck charm)...and learning to conserve some wear and tear on his body. We began to really see what he could do in 2019 and he's still young enough to not have his career grossly affected by a missed 2020. While Garver is a late bloomer, he split time in the minors and bas split time each of his first two ML seasons. He seems to be sturdy and in good shape. It would seem he has plenty of tread on him yet, though he will still hit a downward arc sometime in his 30's, I don't think he is poised for that to happen over the next few years. Agree on Pineda. Also think Cruz and Donaldson are more greatly affected as the clock is ticking on Cruz, and Donaldson is still in his prime RIGHT NOW. Odorizzi and May are also affected. May has a limited but successful tenure as a RP. And I don't feel he would be costly to re-sign. But losing another potentially "dominate" season could definitely cost him some $ with the Twins or anyone else. No matter how much I like Oddo, and want him back, I have stated repeatedly I think his top $ is around $20M per for 3-4yrs. Or, only slightly more than he is scheduled to make in 2020 and more than acceptable for the Twins to bring him back. Something be bas stated he wants and is open to. However, if 2019 was indeed a turning point, and be was hitting his high water mark as a SP, he could potentially be looking at a bump to the $22-23M mark. Maybe. Not going to happen if there is no 2020. -
Twins All-Decade Team, the '70s (The Pitchers)
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For me the 70's was when I was growing up a Twins fan, grade school and Jr high. I remember the hitter list quite well, with the exception of Tovar that I barely recall. I know the SP listed, a couple of the BP arms, especially Marshall, but I confess to little or no memory of Johnson, Burgmeier or Hall. Hope that doesn't debit my Twins Fan/Man Card. How did Blyleven not win the Cy Young in '73? Oh yeah...Jim Palmer. Shout out to all time great Jerry Koosman who joined the team in 1979 and went 20-13 In 37G with 263IP, 10CG and a 3.38ERA.- 12 replies
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- bert blyleven
- dave goltz
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Twins All-Decade Team, the '70s (The Hitters)
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Guess I had forgotten of not realized Smalley wasn't in the Twins HOF. That is a mistake that needs to be corrected. This is a good, solid team. It would be an even better team had it been kept together longer and injury/death hadn't shortened careers.- 20 replies
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- rod carew
- harmon killebrew
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I like Odorizzi. I'd like to keep him around. But I have a hard time seeing 31yo Odorizzi with a good, solid but unspectacular career getting more than $20-22M annually. Maybe I'm wrong. But at just shy of $18M for 2020, the cost of keeping him on an extension should be affordable if he really does want to stick around, as he's previously stated.
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Will Michael Pineda Catch a Break in 2020?
DocBauer replied to Thiéres Rabelo's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If my memory is intact...hard to say these days...while Pineda's numbers to begin 2019 weren't exactly great, he showed promise and was pretty good for the first 3-4 IP before tiring. We all saw what he did when he was ramped up. Talent has never been the issue. And while velocity may be down, experience has helped negate that with just learning to be a better pitcher. (I do wonder if his velocity may have increased slightly from June 1st on once his legs were under him but I have no data). I understand that when you read the initial agreement between management and the union, it reads as if all suspensions will be fully enforced. But as pointed out already, that agreement was made when there might have been thoughts of a full season, or close to it. We are in a very fluid state rignt now. Further, jt has never been acceptable to me that susoended players were able to count days in the IR as part of their suspension. It also blows my mind that suspensions for Astros personal would count if there is no season at all. Which means, really, there is no punishment at all except for unknown future possible exclusion due to involvement. To me, logic and basic fairness would indicate all disciplined players should still be punished, but have their sentence pro-rated along with the rest of all additional pro-rates for any 2020 season. Otherwise, really, their punishments are actually being lengthened. And while I support punishment for any transgression for any player, a sense of proper justice should also be maintained. -
Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree more with the good than I do the bad, Nick, to be honest. And it's not just that I'm an optimist. At various times and stages, through the minors and at the ML level we've seen what May and Duffey can do, more so with May probably. With both of them, I don't see lightening in a bottle for a single year. There's enough history, arm talent, hard work by them and the staff, I think they are both just fine. At some point, Romo and Clippard will finally regress or lose it. And sometimes it can happen quickly. But nothing seen recently indicates their cliff is 2020, assuming a season. While we don't have any long term success to feel 100% about Littell and Stashak, we've also seen an awful lot of good and potential. Wisler is a wildcard worth looking at and burning early if need be. I dismiss Graterol not due to talent or potential, only because he wasn't around long enough to make a true impact. Romero, Colina and Chalmers could be a "replacement" for him in the pen, even short term, in the case of Colina and Chalmers who still seem to have SP potential. And yes, Duran could fit in temporarily as well. And Poppen shouldn't be dismissed. There is tremendous depth here amongst options already established and options who could contribute short and long term, including Dobnak, Smeltzer, etc. I feel good about the depth of the pen. Completely different than when 2019 started.- 11 replies
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- taylor rogers
- trevor may
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Garver, Donaldson Express Thoughts, Concerns on Proposed Altered MLB Season
DocBauer commented on Brandon Warne's blog entry in BW on the Beat
In basic theory, the idea of isolating MLB to Arizona, or a 2 league AZ and FL format actually makes some sense. All involved personnel are basically sequestered, and while not normal ML standards, I'm sure most facilities and stadiums are of decent quality in these scenarios. You could probably sell the idea to the players, coaches, staff, TV and radio crews umpires and everyone involved if it was for a month. Who knows, maybe even two months considering the current state of things. But there is no guarantee, no time frame, no way to future plan. So, unfortunately, it just won't work. -
What's Max Kepler's Next Step?
DocBauer replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wanted to quote initially, but by the time I sat down to do so, there were too many good quotes to list. So let me echo that for some crazy reason, despite athleticism, a sweet swing generally good contact and a good eye, Max's BABIP has simply been unusually and frighteningly low for someone with so much going for him. Darius mentioned finding a sweet spot between contact/launch angle and approach. And that may be a simplified but accurate answer. He has been making adjustments, pitchers have been making adjustments, and round and round goes the wheel. But that's status quo for all hitters, probably more so for young hitters as they refine their game. I have often argued that Kepler has gotten by on pure ability and produced well, but has been a bit behind a lot of prospects and young players due to his training and early experience. Someone, I forget who, had a very interesting post about the kind of baseball and instruction Max had in Europe. I believe the post was about a year ago in another OP of similar discussion. The poster had real knowledge about the level of competition and instruction in Max's case, and it didn't compare to a traditional HS kid. The whole point being, like any young player he has had to learn, develop and make adjustments. But as good as he's been, it may have taken him a bit longer to begin to reach his full potential than others. Considering how good he's been, and the big step forward in 2019, imagine how good he can still be. While I believe he has 30HR power over a full season, (remembering his was hampered the last month or so last year), I would be surprised to see him be more of a consistent high 20HR hitter with an increase in doubles, BA and OB. Especially if he can find that sweet spot in his approach. I absolutely feel we haven't seen the best of him yet. -
Twins Stockpiled for a Crazy 2020 Season
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I posted in a different thread a couple weeks ago that afternoon sports talk radio here in Omaha had a local expert from UNMC speaking about the whole pandemic situation. While, of course, information and prognostication is ongoing and incomplete, and we all hope for a potential cure, 2 important points of hope/focus were: 1] This virus is very vulnerable to proper cleansing. In other words, it doesn't stand up to alcohol, bleach, etc. 2] Like every flu virus, there is hope/belief that as the calender turns warmer and more humid the virus will naturally begin to die out on its own. FWIW. -
We are absolutely on the same page. I've mentioned before in passing that often what is now old becomes new again. And I can see where a shift will begin again in baseball, no pun directly intended. Defense has lowered in expectation over the past few years, being replaced more by the shift than elite gloves, in favor of hitting and especially power hitting. And I love me some power. And even if guys like Cruz and Rosario may not be around much longer, there is plenty of power still on the team and arriving soon. But how much fun would it be to see Buxton become healthy and learn to stay that way, while adding Lewis to the infield construction however it plays out. Add in Arraez, if he is for real, and I think he is. Now, with all that power, you have an elite hitter with contact and OB ability coupled with a pair of real speedsters who could make the SB relevant again.
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Twins All-Decade Team, the '60s (The Hitters)
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just a thought, but since we are including DH, (rightfully so), perhaps also include a utility player? Almost every team of every decade has that one guy who plays a ton off the bench. Tovar could have been that guy here with Mincher as the DH maybe.- 15 replies
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- harmon killebrew
- tony oliva
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Twins Stockpiled for a Crazy 2020 Season
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agreed that depth, period, much less pitching depth is in the Twins favor at this point for a more compressed schedule. When you're not sure which good options make your final staff, but now you get to keep everyone due to a further expanded roster, that's a good thing. -
I have no problem with Kepler continuing to hit at the top of the order in either spot. His production was outstanding, and I believe there is still room for him to improve. And as good as his numbers were, he also mixed chunks of time at the end of the year due to injury. He could be a fine table setter. But as I stated above, with all due respect to Rosario, who I am a fan of, I'd almost rather see him slid to the 5 spot behind a pair of our RH power bats and in front of the third. Of course, that means Arraez has to keep doing what he did last year to pair with Polanco.