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Everything posted by DocBauer
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What's Max Kepler's Next Step?
DocBauer replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wanted to quote initially, but by the time I sat down to do so, there were too many good quotes to list. So let me echo that for some crazy reason, despite athleticism, a sweet swing generally good contact and a good eye, Max's BABIP has simply been unusually and frighteningly low for someone with so much going for him. Darius mentioned finding a sweet spot between contact/launch angle and approach. And that may be a simplified but accurate answer. He has been making adjustments, pitchers have been making adjustments, and round and round goes the wheel. But that's status quo for all hitters, probably more so for young hitters as they refine their game. I have often argued that Kepler has gotten by on pure ability and produced well, but has been a bit behind a lot of prospects and young players due to his training and early experience. Someone, I forget who, had a very interesting post about the kind of baseball and instruction Max had in Europe. I believe the post was about a year ago in another OP of similar discussion. The poster had real knowledge about the level of competition and instruction in Max's case, and it didn't compare to a traditional HS kid. The whole point being, like any young player he has had to learn, develop and make adjustments. But as good as he's been, it may have taken him a bit longer to begin to reach his full potential than others. Considering how good he's been, and the big step forward in 2019, imagine how good he can still be. While I believe he has 30HR power over a full season, (remembering his was hampered the last month or so last year), I would be surprised to see him be more of a consistent high 20HR hitter with an increase in doubles, BA and OB. Especially if he can find that sweet spot in his approach. I absolutely feel we haven't seen the best of him yet. -
Twins Stockpiled for a Crazy 2020 Season
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I posted in a different thread a couple weeks ago that afternoon sports talk radio here in Omaha had a local expert from UNMC speaking about the whole pandemic situation. While, of course, information and prognostication is ongoing and incomplete, and we all hope for a potential cure, 2 important points of hope/focus were: 1] This virus is very vulnerable to proper cleansing. In other words, it doesn't stand up to alcohol, bleach, etc. 2] Like every flu virus, there is hope/belief that as the calender turns warmer and more humid the virus will naturally begin to die out on its own. FWIW. -
We are absolutely on the same page. I've mentioned before in passing that often what is now old becomes new again. And I can see where a shift will begin again in baseball, no pun directly intended. Defense has lowered in expectation over the past few years, being replaced more by the shift than elite gloves, in favor of hitting and especially power hitting. And I love me some power. And even if guys like Cruz and Rosario may not be around much longer, there is plenty of power still on the team and arriving soon. But how much fun would it be to see Buxton become healthy and learn to stay that way, while adding Lewis to the infield construction however it plays out. Add in Arraez, if he is for real, and I think he is. Now, with all that power, you have an elite hitter with contact and OB ability coupled with a pair of real speedsters who could make the SB relevant again.
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Twins All-Decade Team, the '60s (The Hitters)
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just a thought, but since we are including DH, (rightfully so), perhaps also include a utility player? Almost every team of every decade has that one guy who plays a ton off the bench. Tovar could have been that guy here with Mincher as the DH maybe.- 15 replies
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- harmon killebrew
- tony oliva
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(and 3 more)
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Twins Stockpiled for a Crazy 2020 Season
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agreed that depth, period, much less pitching depth is in the Twins favor at this point for a more compressed schedule. When you're not sure which good options make your final staff, but now you get to keep everyone due to a further expanded roster, that's a good thing. -
I have no problem with Kepler continuing to hit at the top of the order in either spot. His production was outstanding, and I believe there is still room for him to improve. And as good as his numbers were, he also mixed chunks of time at the end of the year due to injury. He could be a fine table setter. But as I stated above, with all due respect to Rosario, who I am a fan of, I'd almost rather see him slid to the 5 spot behind a pair of our RH power bats and in front of the third. Of course, that means Arraez has to keep doing what he did last year to pair with Polanco.
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Fine points, Trov, and I agree the basic principal of manufacturing runs has lessened if not become endangered. (Somewhat to my chagrin as I love the excitement of a SB and enjoy a successful hit and run). And I wholeheartedly agree/understand a "better" hitter being in the #2 spot now. But aren't Kepler, Polanco, Garver when he's up top, and Arraez if he maintains, already "better" hitters and more dangerous than the traditional model types? Now, there is a part of me that really likes the idea of Kepler sliding down to break up our RH power, but regardless, I'm of the belief that a pair of dangerous/quality hitters in the top 2 spots should provide Cruz, Donaldson, Sano and either Kepler or Rosario TONS of RBI opportunities. Not to mention the fact that they themselves are pretty good OB guys for anyone hitting behind them.
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If anyone on the current Twins team coukd accomplish the feat it might be Sano healthy for a full season. While echoing some of your own points, I would just state that 3 prime principles of today's game would seem to make such a feat near impossible: 1] Relievers are no longer mop-up guys. Pitching velocity is WAY up over what it was 10yrs ago, 20yrs ago, etc. Now, except for those rare and special arms, the game is about 5-6IP by a SP and then turn it over to a talented bullpen. 2] Defensive shifts have definitely changed the game. 3] Combined with the first 2 points, hitting is about power, launch angle, etc. Call it the ESPN highlight mantra if you want. SO's are way up and part of the game now. Contact and OB aren't gone or frowned on, but the game has become all about power now. What I can't wrap my head around is the theory of your best hitters moving up higher to the top of the order to be more productive. I get more AB for the best and most dangerous hitter on your team, in general, but who do they drive in unless you have a deep lineup. Otherwise, they are driving in themselves and maybe the leadoff hitter. Yes? I would love someone to show me how Cruz, Donaldson or Sano...or anyone on any team... is more productive hitting in the 2 spot unless he is on a team with a very strong bottom of the order to be driven in. And I'm asking with sincerity. I'm not necessarily talking about breaking the 140 RBI number, but basic logic tells me some combination of Kepler, Polanco and Arraez, (And possibly others), getting OB at a .350-.400 clip with XB power sets up Cruz, Donaldson, Sano, etc, to have multiple opportunities to drive in far more runs rather than hitting #2. Albeit, the Twins are definitely a team that DOES have a deep and productive bottom of the order. But I'm speaking in general terms here, and not necessarily the Twins as constructed currently.
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Twins Simulation Game 11, 4-6-20
DocBauer commented on TheTeufelShuffle's blog entry in TheTeufelShuffle's Blog
Very fun. And very much appreciated! Efforts like this, though fantasy, still fill a baseball entertainment void. Thanks! -
I'm not going to make a choice it's like prime rib vs filet. Or Raquel Welch in her prime vs Farrah Fawcett in hers, (a little levity for us older dudes, lol) Harmon's numbers for his season are just incredible! But what Mauer did, and being a catcher, just can't be undersold. If you twisted my arm I might cry out Mauer's name simply because he was a catcher and I have a soft spot for that position and all it entails both physically and mentally. In my humble opinion, we have been spoiled as baseball fans for the number of catchers and SS that have come along the last 20yrs or so. Someone more steeped in baseball history might correct me, and I'd welcome that. I was a kid when Bench played, a teenager when Fisk was still playing. But when I think of Carter, Rodriguez, Posey, Mauer and a few others I am blown away by the number of HOF worthy catchers I've watched, not to mention the re-invention of the SS position. This article does make me a little sad I have to admit. Not predicting future MVP season's or WS championships, but oh what might have been for both Mauer and Mourneau without those damned concussions.
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And I don't disagree with your proposal. In an ideal situation, of course, weird and fluke injuries are done, (goodness knows Buxton has had his share), and he learns to conserve his body better and starts to become a full season player. Should the opposite happen it would be my hope that Celestino would continue to develop and emerge allowing Lewis to stay in the infield. Not that he couldn't continue to be a versatile player who could also cover some OF time. Like rdehring stated, I am also a big fan of Rosario. And I'm not ready to let him go by any means. But between LF/1B/DH/RF coverage you can easily see a path to both Kirilloff and Larnach making a mark if Cruz and Rosario are removed from the equation over the next year or so. Again, not that I'm looking to kick anyone to the curb at this point.
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First, I apologize for not double checking my first post and Koufax's name got garbled. Not my intent. Nor would I ever think to diminish his greatness, even though I "liked" a couple posts that spoke about his "emergence". He was an incredible pitcher and more than deserving of his HOF selection. But something I mentioned, and others have as well, is in regard to worthiness to the Hall based on career numbers vs periods of dominance. It's frustrating that selection is sometimes so subjective. Forgetting Koufax, and without taking the time to research and just using the numbers and time frame of the OP in regard to Santana, he would have arguably been the best SP in MLB for about a 7yr stretch. The name Pedro Martinez was mentioned as a comparison at one point. Regardless, Johan deserved a lot more consideration than 1 and done! Blyleven, IMO, is very deserving. He was finally elected, much later than he should have been, due to his longevity, numbers, and people finally looking past the HR allowed and pitching for some poor teams that may have skewed his final numbers. And then I mention Puckett again, who I also think was deserving. But even still, he falls short of final numbers compared to other similar inductees due to his career being cut short. So where is the balance between career length and numbers vs brilliance and dominance in a shortened career? Koufax himself had a shortened career. I don't have the answer. But as a fan, I try to look at each player in regard to his career, his numbers, and his production and dominance in his era for a sustained period of time. Now I never got to actually watch Oliva play. And like Kirby, his career was cut tragically short. (All the more because today's medical technology would have probably lengthened his career). But his dominating numbers/performance should count for something shouldn't it? Again, I don't have the answers as to how you should measure HOF worthiness. I think length of career and final numbers are key. And I'm not speaking about Santana's worthiness when I ask/wonder if a period of dominance should also be considered.
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Honestly, despite being what I hope is a highly educated and informed fan, I hadn't realized Johan had been THAT dominate over his primary 7yr span. But I believe Cody's arguement was not so much Santana is a sure-fire HOFer but rather objecting to the fact that he was dismissed entirely after ONE YEAR on the ballot. It's always amazing to me how some players can have shortened careers, or be somewhat average but with a period of dominance and be elected while others can be dismissed like Santana in this case. I won't even pretend to dis on Loud as, but he was good not great initially and had his career end early. Our own Kirby Puckett had his career shortened tragically, but if you compare some of his final numbers to other HOF selections, he falls short. And yet he was universally thought of as a HOF. I don't understand how Santana could be dismissed so easily here. And I'm right there with you in regard to Mauer. Already gearing up the fan rage expected to be needed to lash out.
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Personally, I would have included Lewis in this article. He also struggled through some injures, like Kirilloff, that affected his season. But he finished stronger and seemed healthy and ready to go so they sent him to the AFL where he was the MAP. Like the others in regard to SSS, he may have started slow but then heated up big time, and flashed leather, before things got shut down. I am NOT opposed to trading prospects to bring in a difference maker like a stud pitcher. But when I look at the potential still of Berrios, and keeping Oddo, the potential of Thorpe and Dobnak, the potential of a couple young stud arms oh so close, additional depth on its way, I wonder if the Twins aren't better off doing right now something they have been accused of, hoarding prospects. Cruz will have to hang it up the next year or two, probably. Finances and young talent may push Rosario off the team, no matter how much we love and enjoy him. There are no guarantees, of course, but tell me you can't find room for Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Duran and Balazovic over the next couple of seasons.
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Choose Your MVP: Re-evaluating the 1965 MVP Race
DocBauer replied to Matthew Taylor's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Both were before my time...fortunate or unfortunately, LOL...but from the outside looking in, all the data from this one season, I can't disagree with the choice. Oliva was the better player by far. But Versalles had an amazing season. I really don't understand why Oliva isn't in the HOF already. He reminds me so much of one of his pupils, Puckett. Like Kirby, injury robbed him of numbers and years. Puckett was elected rather easily, with fine numbers, even though his career was cut short. Have writers just forgotten who Oliva was and what he did? Will Mauer, and his incredible accomplishments, be shunned by voters because of injury? When we discuss Oliva, and Mauer, I often think of NFL great Gayle Sayers. Knee injuries robbed Sayers of what his career might have been. Injuries that in today's world, might have been repaired and treated with much greater success and prolonged his career. With all the warranted love given to Jim Brown, Walter Payton, and others, a healthy Sayers may have been the greatest and most dynamic RB to ever play. I hope, one of these days, the veterans committee gets it right and puts Oliva in the hall for what he did. And I hope the writers get it right for the same reason for Mauer. Careers cut short is a shame. But outstanding numbers/performance above everyone else, even in a career cut short, should count. -
Opening Day Hope Still Unites in Twins Territory
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
While i have been distracted and busy enough with life to break my tradition somewhat the past 2yrs, for YEARS my tradition has been to watch Bull Durham and Major League before the season gets underway. And then, whether it be opening day or the Twins home opener, I make sure I have one of thise days off to listen to, or watch, that "first" game. And in my head, having spent most of the past 45+yrs as an avid radio broadcast fan, I still hear Herb Carneal and his patterned "hello Twins fans". Our beloved Huskers are so very important to my father and me. We bleed red! We also have a lot of purple coursing through our veins for the Vikings even after years of frustration and disappointment. But the Twins have always been something very special we share together from the season, to next, to the off-season, to the minors and even the draft. Baseball just marks something special in regard to spring truly beginning and everything in the world being more "right". And I'm really missing that right now. Right now, I haven't even seen my dad in a couple weeks as he's home being safe and I see the public daily. So I'm being extra careful right now. I can promise you that whenever baseball comes back, win or lose, I will be spending that first game with him. Even if I have to call in "sick" that day. Perhaps I'll be calling in extra well that day. -
The Show Must Go On: Over the Hill
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd have no problem giving him a shot and let Dobnak continue to thrive in the pen. But given the choice of a young arm who can help now and the future, I want the young arm. -
A Decade of Difference from Twins Walkoff Ways
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I miss situational baseball at times, and feel there is still a place for it in today's game. But agree today's game has it's own beauty. I really miss the SB aspect of the game. The runner jumping and the catcher exploding out of his crouch for the throw and those brief moments of safe/out are exhilarating. -
In Memory: A Previous Era of Twins Pitching
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The problem with this is that Radke should be #1. He was talented and the epitome of the "old philosophy" of pitching to contact. Not being a downer here, but for the 1,000 time, the "pitch to contact" philosophy was NOT about giving in to batters getting hits! It was about having a quality defense behind the pitcher, keeping the ball low in the zone to avoid power from the batter, and throwing strikes to avoid free passes. This was a standard and successful mantra for how many decades? Times change. The Twins changed slower than most. I think Trov is very accurate when he states that too few of the Twins pitchers had an OUT pitch to make a difference. Batters today are so grounded in launch angle that the high pitch/strike has become a best friend for pitchers who can pull it off. Witness Oddo. Santana and Liriano were extraordinary. It's just unfortunate Santana had to be moved and Liriano was injured as there was a flash of a window that could have been outstanding. The milb system showed increased K rate in TR's final seasons, indicating change was slowly taking place. But this FO is just so much more in tune with the changes in the game that it is like B&W vs color. -
Very interesting! No offense to him, but Colabello should not be a benchmark for the Twins, or anyone else. Fact is, his career was something few ever achieve, but it was limited and short lived. Plenty of other teams passed on the guy before the Twins and after the Jays. What is extremely poignant is the changes within the Twins system to date with this new FO. Frankly, I am tired of TR being vilified for being incompetant. He was a great scout of talent and did a lot of great things for the organization. There was a time and place for what the Twins did and taught. The same things and ways most teams did things. The problem was the Twins were WAY LATE to adapt to change! And we've heard that from past players. The good news, as pointed out, is the the new individual approach we've been hearing about. It's not just the universal approach to power and launch angle, but each and every player finding their comfort zone. An example is Buxton, despite his shortened 2019, going back to what felt comfortable and right and having the best season of his career. Lest we forget Sano, Kepler, Polanco, etc. It wasn't just Rocco. It was his coaches and the new philosophy from the top on down. The Twins might have been one of the last teams to adapt, but they might also be one of the most progressive organizations right now. Who would have thought that 3yrs ago?
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5 Questions with Twins Prospect Brent Rooker
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thanks for that. Really like getting to know the prospects other than just being that. Enjoyed his comment about impacting people around him vs just baseball. Tells me the kid has his head on straight. While I would have loved to hear his answer to the final question, even a flippant answer, I totally get it. How many of us would be able to answer that question without feeling we were leaving someone out?