Everything posted by DocBauer
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Re-Signing Jake Odorizzi Needs to be a Priority for the Minnesota Twins
I still believe we will see a big DFA market to saturate the FA market and, potentially, cheap and late signing values. But what I find intriguing is Ray signing quickly as well as Stoman and Glausman accepting their QO. It means some players are willing/smart enough to grab what they can when offered. Also indicates at least some teams are smart/brave enough to keep an important piece of their puzzle despite financial concerns. I disagree Odorizzi was shaky in 2018. He was still solid. He was borderline outstanding in 2019, even as a 5+ IP thrower. His injuries in 2020 were freaky and in no way career threatening. Barring a trade for someone, he's a perfect fit for around $12-13M, whether it be 1yr or 3yr. He's no ACE, but who ever said he was? But he IS good! And he wants to be here. This really should be a happy no brainer sign unless demands get out of whack.
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3 Former All-Star Starters the Twins Could Sign
Happy to bring Kluber on board as a flier for a couple $M with incentives. Otherwise, complete pass.
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Eddie or Miguel or Byron or Max? You choose
Mike, tremendous post! And really, despite endless OP's before on the front page, I'd like to see this one moved there. I LOVE Eddie, even though he has made me pull my hair out many times or made me take an extra sip or two from my beverage of choice at times. I absolutely think he is a better player than given credit for at times. Like you, I've always chafed when some argue his RBI production and dismiss it as being in a good lineup and in a good spot. You still have to produce, right? And Eddie has, no doubt! The problem is, with all due respect and love for Eddie, is there someone knocking on the door who could do it as well or better who is younger and cheaper? We can compare Eddie and Max all day. Max is better defensively overall, younger, might have a higher ceiling, and might be better and more productive than he has been lower in the order instead of hitting #1. Also, it's really, really hard to look at the potential of Kirilloff, maybe Larnach, and NOT see better overall hitters who might not have the same "flair" but who are better overall "hitters". Power is awesome. Production is most important. Defense is really nice. But sometimes a younger player has as much or more ability to do all of that and maybe more. We can't lose Eddie and Cruz in the same year. But we have, I think, at least one ready replacement for Eddie. And I think we are going to be very OK with our #1 option there. We might even be better, overall, very soon. Kirilloff is going to be a stud!
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How Can the Twins Create MLB’s Best Roster?
Unfortunately while I like the OP and the exercise in general, it has 2 minor flaws. ONE being teams won't remain static in regard to their rosters. Everyone will see at least minor changes. That could be for the good or bad. TWO is the most obvious situation regarding payroll across MLB. And that goes back to point #2. But let's talk in a vacuum for a moment. Let us safely assume nobody is going to raise team payrolls. Second, within that vacuum, let us be somewhat optomistic that inoculations help curve covid...along with more time...and teams expect something along the lines of half attendance. As Pohlad stated, the Twins are not looking to recapture losses from the 2020 season and want to consider 2021 on it's own terms. Would it then be far-fetched that the Twins might consider keeping next season's payroll also status quo? That would place them at approximately $138M IIRC. That would give them about $50M to build their roster. (I referenced this idea in a forums post recently, FWIW). I don't believe in change for the sake of change. But I do believe in change to shake things up a little and to keep a team always moving forward. So what does $50M for the Twins to remain one of the top teams in all of MLB, much less get better? (Financial numbers are my best guess on proposed estimates and a belief some expectations are a bit high, IMO). Internet knocked me out so I lost all of my "intelligent" thought processes and comments. Grrr! So I can repeat everything and make all of my seemingly intelligent points or I can now be sorta P.O. and comment briefly. I choose being p.o. and being brief. (Heavy sigh) BULLPEN: Giving up on big time arms already on hand is a mistake. Rogers at $6M and May for $5M makes sense to me. WAY TOO MUCH arm talent unless the market explodes for May. Absolutely love the idea of Yates for $4-5M on a 1yr make good offer. Clippard back for $2.5-3M should be a no-brainer. Someone offers May a BIG DEAL, rewind and look at Petit and Hunter in the $4-5M range. ROTATION: Barring a smart trade, which I think COULD happen, show me somebody better than Odorizzi for $10-13M. Yes, that's a $3M swing, but are we talking a 1yr or multi year guarantee? DH: Cruz has less than half one league to negotiate with considering re-build, financial considerations and rosters/DH in place. He might get some sort of 2nd year option. I don't buy $15M. Maybe. I'm thinking $13M tops. UTILITY: Hernandez sounds great, but goes back to the Dogers if they want him. Love the idea of Profar, MY first choice, with room to still improve, but won't accept a 10th man role, so I would choose LaStella as a perfect fit for about $6-7M. Adrianza is brought back for around $1M for his defense and a bet his offense is the 2018-19 version. All of these moves put the 2021 Twins almost dead on with the 2020 payroll for 2021...give or take just a little wiggle room. And should keep them as a very realist championship/top contending team with no raise in payroll. I WISH, in this scenario, there was room to bring in a Pillar kind of player for an extra $3-5M. But there just isn't room. Further, we still don't know if there is any chance of actually having a status quo $138M payroll. I hope it happens! But even at reports of a $125M option, I don't exactly think that means the Twins are dead in the water. There is still too much talent on hand and too many possibilities vs trade and DFA to be determined to not look for improvement. Maybe Smyly is our 4th SP option. Maybe Oddo reaĺy can be signed for $8M for 1yr. Maybe the Twins are the right team to offer Kluber a $8-10M make good offer. Maybe Carberera is the perfect 1yr 10th man option. A lot of unknowns at this point, unfortunately. If you look at the current roster and the milb depth, you can't help but be excited. But there are so many unknowns, you also have to be guarded and hope the FO is as smart as we think they are. I remain hopeful for 2021 even with questions. I see an awful lot of opportunity available if the payroll stays the same. If everyone else lowers payroll, then I still see opportunity because of the same. A lot of talent on hand. A ton of talent pounding on the door. Per the OP, you want to keep up with the top projected teams, just be smart and keep your payroll at an even quo at least.
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Twins drop Rochester as AAA affiliate, Pensacola also may be gone
No offense to Rochester, who by all accounts I've ever read have treated the Twins well and do a great job, it just never felt like a good fit. I mean, didn't they sell something like 2-1 Yankees merchandise vs Red Wings in the pro shop? Sorry to see Pensacola go if true. Seems we just arrived and the park looks great. Assuming St Paul takes over for one location, really interested who becomes the remaining affiliate. Any thoughts or rumors?
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5 "Under the Radar" Free Agent Utility Player Targets
Cabrera is a guy I have my eye on. She should come inexpensively and has veteran experience. If he's league average, i think I'm OK with that for my 10th man. Not my very 1st choice, but with other roster considerations and finances to consider, I kinda like him. Hadn't considered Villar but like that idea. Unfortunately, he might not fit in the budget.
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How Important Is The 10th man?
Marwin Gonzalez was brought in as an ideal 10th man for the new age ML roster with versatility offensively and defensively. And we can argue about his production and value. Defensively, while no longer a legitimate daily SS option, over the past two seasons, I'm not sure anyone could really complain about his defense. Despite a few gaffs here and there, his glove was solid to excellent at times. Offensively, he was OK in 2019 but slid big time last year except for a couple of moments. I believe in roster depth and versatility. I have for some time. I'm way beyond any .190 BA utility INF, and so is most of MLB. I believe in the best and most balanced roster roster you can put together. And I believe Adrianza will be be brought back on a cheap deal for his defense at multiple positions. Hopefully, his offense will more reflect his past couple of years. But there is room for a Marwin replacement. And there are a number of viable options from Hernandez to Profar and even Cabrera for a year. Do we go this route? Or do we just spend everything $ to pitching and just trust in Gordon and Blankenhorn being ready?
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A Letter To The Twins FO And Ownership
I always appreciate your comments and perspective. Always smart and well thought out. My only disagreement/caveat with the last part of your post is the players have already agreed, grudgingly, to "contributing" to "losses" in 2020 due to a short season. And 2021 WILL HAPPEN, presumably, with a great deal of unknowns at this time. I think you are ABSOLUTELY right to consider 2022 to be a mystery. And while I can place a certain amount of blame on ownership to opening books and negotiating honestly for the future...why in the world can't both sides just look at everything that is taking place and just be adult and benifical for both sides as other sports seem to...my OP was just about recognizing the best scenario for the franchise. Maybe it was his money. Maybe it was his personality. But Carl was well respected amongst ML ownership. It seems to me Jim has been largely silent or under the radar at least. But ever since Falvey and Levine were brought on board, and through covid and social issues, it seems Jim has stepped forward. Maybe he wanted to, and maybe he didn't want to. But he and the family have done so. And I expect no miracles as a Twins fan. I only ask perspective for what they have and what they have been building. I don't ask for crazy financial numbers. I only ask for reasonable numbers for their investment...an EGO investment to be sure, Carl LOVED the Twins...to continue to keep their investment as viable.
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Kepler as a CF back up?
So ONE TIME I figured out how to multi-quote and now I don't remember how to do it again. Otherwise I would have done it here. Sue me! Lol! Kepler is FINE as a back up CF option. And please don't ask me for links as I'm going off memory that is usually good. I believe it was here on TD last off-season where someone looked at Kepler's numbers as the primary CF. The numbers weren't bad, but they seemed to slide as the season wore on, as I recall. It seemed he "wore out" playing CF daily. Now, maybe that was a slump of sorts, or maybe it was losing lis legs over time. IMPO, Kepler was kept in RF last season because of defense and to save his legs for offense. He was also kept there because, whether you like him or not, Cave showed great defensive improvement in CF. I was able to watch the majority of the games played last year, or at least parts of them, and I saw better tracking skills and no absurd dives or slides that I saw in 2019. Just better defense overall. That's why Kepler was seldom placed in CF. The ideal situation would be Celestino earning a 4th/5th OF spot in the next year or so to take care of the CF situation behind Byron. Of course...as always...a little bit better luck along with Byron learning to take better care of his body...which I think he did last season...changes the complexion.
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How Will the Twins Address the Bullpen This Offseason?
Apologize for probably repeating some things already stated in the post podcast OP. I do think the FO and staff do a great job of identifying bullpen pieces. Internally, I think Alcala has a high ceiling and is already penciled in for 2021. Now, does he morph quickly in to a back end piece, or does he settle in to mid relief for the time being? Depends not only on him, but also any potential additions. I also believe Rogers is back for around $6+M. There is WAY too much arm talent and past production at his age to believe he is cooked after a mediocre 2020. Duffey is set. I believe Stashak and Wisler are near locks. Wisler less so, and he will regress somewhat. He pretty much has to! That's 5 of 8 spots virtually set. No matter how payroll gets set, there is need and room and at least SOME payroll to work with. Thielbar has a real shot, IMO, but doesn't have enough OOMF in his arm for me to just slot him in despite how well he performed last year. The Twins MIGHT slot Colina back in the rotation at some point, but IMO, they have decided his future is in the pen, at least for now. His one appearance late in the year is indicative of the Twins liking him, but no indication he is or is not ready yet. And, of course, there is ABSOLUTELY the possibility one of the 2 recent additions, or a flier yet to come, could surprise. But those ARE fliers and depth at this point. Also possible the Twins slide Thorpe in to the pen NOW, but I'm guessing he remains in the rotation for NOW. Can't ignore Smeltzer for some sort of role. Not even going to touch the Romero possibility at this point. But ALL of this is more about depth at this point. Clippard has been living on 1yr deals for about the same money for some time now while producing. He was excellent in 2020 at $2.7M I believe. His re-signing for somewhere between $2.5-3M makes so much sense for both sides. And I see no reason that kind of contract can't be fit in rather easily. Where it gets difficult is a NEED for ONE MORE quality arm to keep the pen strong for a championship caliber team. STILL have to make the crucial Cruz decision, bring in a #3/4 SP and at least consider a 10th man utility player. (IMO, Adrianza is a given at around $1M). There is going to be a financial crunch at some point. But a quality bullpen is too important to be ignored. Unless Cruz is gone, or Rogers is gone, (maybe and I doubt it), there just isn't room for a Hendricks or Hand signing unless payroll stays the same for 2021. THEN, there would be room. Losing either, or both, open up a whole different can of worms not to be discussed here. I agree with Tom, beyond the re-signing of Clippard, that there should be room for ONE GUY for about $4-5M. Does May really rank that highly on other teams list? I like him a lot. And I repeat that if he was a FA from another team, we might be clamoring for the Twins to sign him. But not a proven closer, does be really get $6-7M for multiple years from someone else? IDK, maybe he does. Maybe he doesn't and wants to stick with the Twins for $4-5M per. Like the RP offered, maybe a Yates or Hunter comes on board for a shot at winning for a $3-5M deal. Any way you want to slice up the roster and payroll pie, I'm looking at Clippard back and one more veteran arm for $3-5M, plus one more cheap flier with some sort of split contract or opt out deal.
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Cruisin' With Kirilloff
I think Kirilloff is being targeted to be the probable OF, but he also has to earn the job. This could easily result in an "accidental" extra year of service time. Rooker is older, has successful AAA time and looked ready in his SSS. The team already knows what they have in Cave and Wade. So I can see a scenario where Kirilloff doesn't have a great ST and comes up later. But once he's up, I think he'll be up for good.
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Who Should the Twins Protect from the Rule 5 Draft?
I have been rooting for Javier for some time. All the potential in the world! He showed some real potential his first 2 years. And then he missed 2018 due to injury. And he might be the #1 guy in the system who got screwed by no milb season to get back to normal. But I think you are thinking of someone else or looking at the wrong season. His quad splits in 2019 were awefull.
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Who Should the Twins Protect from the Rule 5 Draft?
I admit to being a bit worried last year about him. But with no milb season last year and not being on the taxi squad at St Paul, would someone really bank on stashing him for a year? I know scouts and various FO are always working and projecting. But do you really think he's at risk this time?
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Who Should the Twins Protect from the Rule 5 Draft?
I'm with you on Rortvedt. I would be STUNNED if someone selected him and kept him. He's just not ready. He needs at least another year, especially after missing 2020. But really good and interestingly catcher prospects are valuable. Someone could find a reason to stash him on the roster or the IL. I'd like to be safe and protect him. I like Garver and absolutely don't think the 2020 version of him is the real player. But I think Jeffers and Rortvedt are the future.
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A Letter To The Twins FO And Ownership
To all concerned, We are living in uncertain times as a society right now, that's a given. And with all that is taking place right now, perhaps anyone reaching out with any sort of thought or plea regarding a sports franchise would seem superfluous in such times. Yet, I write. I write because life must go on, and indeed, it does carry on regardless. And such things as sports is an ingrained and relatively important part of our society and culture. Who I am individually is not really pertinent save to say I am a sports fan and an avid Twins fan through ups and downs for nearly 50yrs of my life. I am a Midwesterner born and raised and fit probably, financially speaking, as middle to maybe lower-middle class in our world as it is now. I can't and won't pretend what it might be like to be in charge of a multi-million/billion franchise. But intelligence and practicality doesn't have a price tag. Not a one of us fans out here in tbe public world has a true grasp on the ultimate, bottom line numbers of expenses and profit and loss of owning a franchise such as the Twins. And loss is definitely a key word after the 2020 season and how it relates to MLB in general and the Twins specifically. To be frank, despite all of us debating such things as payroll, contracts, a player's financial worth and the such, we get lost in abstract details. Very few of us can even comprehend the earnings of a ML rookie, much less the multi-million dollar earnings of an established player. I think very few of us truly ever begrudge a player trying to earn as much money as they can. For myself, I simply can't look at an owner of any business, much less a sports franchise, and loudly proclaim it is my right as a fan to demand you lay out as much as you can monetarily to make myself and hundreds of thousands of fans "happy". From a mom and pop shop to a sports franchise, how could this make any business sense? But I WOULD argue that owning a public entertainment business, such as a sports team, does have a different weight. Ownership wise, there is nothing wrong with wanting to earn profit from said franchise. But I think we all are wise enough to know and understand that those who own such an industry also don't rely on that investment as a sole income. So there is where the rub comes. As owners and FO, you have made significant changes over the past few years to rebuild the Twins organization from the top on down. You have done so with investments in infrastructure and intelligent moves personnel wise. You have spent unprecedented financially while still being intelligent and even frugal...never just blowing the lid off. I commend you for the changes that have taken place. YOU, FO and ownership, are at a strange precipice I'm sure you never saw coming. Unlike many franchises, you have done "right" thus far by paying your milb players and not dismissing employees in droves. Again, I applaud you. But where do we go from here? Jim Pohlad had a recent interview concerning the state of MLB. I found his comments to be open, honest and succinct. I'm not sure how other owners, or agents or players received them, but I think he was spot on as to the current situation taking place. What I found to be interesting and revealing were his comments that...paraphrasing here...2020 was what it was and is done, and the Twins organization is not looking to recoup any sort of financial losses in regard to 2021 and beyond. And so, at length...some would say FINALLY...this brings us to the crux of my letter to you all. There is a universal opinion, rightly so, that there will be some sort of financial cutback across MLB post covid 2020 and with unanswered questions concerning 2021. There has been some rather wild speculation that a depressed and possibly saturated market of possible FA players available an organization could pounce on opportunity to "buy" contention and a possible title. I think we're all intelligent enough to know this is a fallacy and fool's errand. But I WOULD argue that opportunity DOES present itself. In anything approaching normalcy this current off-season, a top and contending team like the Twins would AT LEAST expect a status quo payroll wise, if not a bump. Even in 2019 and '20, the Twins payroll was just under the ML mean. One might easily expect something like a 10% bump in payroll for 2021 for a contending team. I don't ask you to bump payroll in these strange and uncertain times. I'm not even asking you to not cut payroll. But I AM asking you to look at the BIG PICTURE of your franchise. Were you to keep payroll the same, or slightly lower...say a 5% cut...trusting in your talent and intelligent FO, I wonder if the potential dividends wouldn't ultimately pay large dividends. Regards to you all.
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Twins Free Agent Targets: Relief Pitcher
First off, just want to say this podcast was outstanding! It was well laid out from top to bottom with options and opinions and thoroughly entertaining. Just a couple quick points: 1] Payroll is just such a mystery not only for the Twins, but for everyone. It's great that the TD staff and ML Traderumors and others offer up speculated contract offers. And while some guys WILL GET PAID, I still think a lot of the proposed numbers are high, including some of the targets I've seen for RP. Hand is a perfect example of how crazy this market may be. For every team to pass on him at $10M indicates a drop in $ across the board, IMO. 2] I think the Twins FO and staff have a really good eye for BP talent. And I have faith they will end up with a solid to great bullpen in 2021 no matter what direction they ultimately take. Those things being said, the Twins are a TOP contender with a wide open window with talent on hand, options available, and young talent on the way. But one way to KEEP being a contender is to make sure the pitching staff doesn't regress. My PERFECT scenario would be as follows: Rogers: $6M May: $5M Clippard: $3M (maybe as low as $2.5M) Yates: $4M And there is more than enough depth to not only complete the pen, but to have depth on hand. But that's roughly $18M...not a large amount really...applied to the $37M available to spend to reach the proposed $125M payroll target we are speculating. That leaves $18M left for a SP and Cruz, while ignoring any decent 10th man utility player signing. That's just not going to work. Clippard may be too good, too dependable and too cheap to not bring back. I think you have to decide if May or Yates makes the most sense. Yates has the track record but is a health question mark while May is younger, healthier, and may have another level left in him. My best guess? Rogers is back, Clippard is back, SOMEONE in the May-Yates-Hunter category MIGHT be signed for $3-4M and a flier is taken on a milb/$1M deal like the examples of Kline-Jones-Robertson. (Incentives could be thrown in, but would gladly be paid out if performance earned them I'd think). Depending on the proposed 3rd signing, the Twins then have $24-28M for Cruz, SP (Odorizzi?), Adrianza and a solid 10th man utility option. That's cutting things really close, but is do-able. Really wish the $ was there for $130M payroll. The opportunity is present for the Twins to put together a hell of a team for 2021 if it were.
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Who Should the Twins Protect from the Rule 5 Draft?
With all the craziness left over in regard to arbitration, FA, non-tendered players, etc, as part of the hangover from 2020 civic, crazy to realize rule 5 is also affected. With payroll questions and cuts, will anyone really want to spend money on a rule 5 pick? Or will teams be looking to spend a relatively small financial investment even if it means stashing a player for an entire year? Of course Balazovic is a given. I'm really not sure anyone would be willing to keep a AA catcher on their roster, but I'd be very tempted to protect Rortvedt just to make sure. I don't want to lose any of the guys listed. The system is deep and all of the guys listed have the potential over the next season or two to knock on the ML door. But are they really at risk of being selected and kept for a whole season? And while I believe there are some guys here who have a real chance over the next couple of years...as I previously stated...is there anyone listed who couldn't be replaced by others in the system? I think the givens are just that, with Rotvedt as the one question. Otherwise, we will need roster spots for whatever moves will be made over the next few months.
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Keith Law Top 40 Free Agents '20-21
I have nothing but respect for Stoman. But to be ranked that high tells me either a personal bias/like or a reflection of a poor/average market. I am not going to re-post numbers I put together in a different thread on the front page a week ago in regard to FA SP options. It's very easy for anyone to pull up Stroman's and Odorizzi's career numbers side by side and examine for yourself. But what you will see initially is a 1yr difference in age and a slightly higher career WAR for Stoman. If you look closer, you will see career numbers in virtually every category almost mirroring one another, a little give and take here and there. But what I find humorous is that Stoman has been called an "innings eater". But if you break down the numbers, Stoman has averaged just slightly more than 1/3 IP over Odorizzi. Sorry Mr. Law, but I'd go with the guy on hand I already know. As to May not being ranked, I get it. It's only one guy's list...reputed though he may be...but he is not a proven closer or projected closer. Now, it only takes 1 team to decide he is an answer. In fact, if May had been pitching for a different team the last couple of seasons, with the numbers/results he has had, most of us would be clamoring for the Twins to sign him. And IMO, sites like MLB Traderumors are all over the place with their projections. But how in the world can someone like Hand be projected at $7M and May be the equal??? Again, it only takes 1 team to believe and sign May up. But I still believe he is looking at $4M and $5M max. I am hoping the payroll will allow that and Clippard at $2.5-3M. And unless there is a trade made, there are various FA that are VERY intriguing! But right now, I'm still not sure a healthy Oddo isn't the best choice.
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Trade Retrospective: How Did the Twins Do in the Eduardo Escobar Trade?
I always enjoy topics like this, filled with so much speculation. I was, and remain, a fan of Escobar. I really wish we still had him, and that's not a knock on our current roster or those acquired. I'm agreeing with Mike that's it's just too early to tell if anyone actually won the trade. IIRC, the Twins did offer an extension but it was turned down. Considering he re-upped with Arizona for a very manageable contract, the Twins offer must have been low, or, not good enough to Escobar considering Sano was still the expected 3B and Polanco was coming on etc. Did the Twins receive a good haul in return? Absolutely! Now, we don't know how good Duran will be. But the guy has the right build and great stuff and results to back it up. (At least at the milb level). I have yet to read a single opinion from anyone that doesn't like him and his potential. And big potential arms are extremely valuable. As to Maciel and Trinidad, well, we'll see. The Twins system is LOADED pretty good OF talent but not everyone makes it, and there are always trade possibilities. You need 3 really good ones, plus a solid 4th, and sometimes a 5th when talking about depth and even DH possibilities. I believe Celestino is definitely ahead of Maciel. That doesn't mean Maciel doesn't turn out to be quality...or tradeable...as a 4th OF. Maybe Celestino gets moved at some point. Or maybe he takes over for Buxton at some point and we need that backup CF option. (Not saying I predict or want that, but it could happen). Trinidad, I believe, can/has played some CF but projects as a corner OF with a solid skill set. Again, a possible 4th OF option? Duran is the key piece here. And we should see him at some point in 2021. When and how good he is immediately is impossible to judge at this point. If either of the OF's turn in to decent/solid players, or part of a future trade, it could easily be a "victory" trade for the Twins for sure. As MajorLeague stated clearly, Duran as a quality ML SP to possible top 2 SP option will give the Twins the win here. But we're at least a year from a decision.
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Twins Spotlight Replay: Episode 5 (Travis Blankenhorn)
I haven't listened yet but will. I've always had a soft spot for Blankenhorn since drafted. I always hoped he was going to be one of those really good athletes who just needed time to devote himself to one sport. I've been a bit disappointed, but he seems to be coming in to his own now. I'm not sure he's ready to fill the super utility role that Marwin held just yet, but I'm hopeful he could be soon.
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Offseason Outlook: Cody’s 2021 Twins Blueprint
Agreed! But 34yo, barely pitched at any level for 2yrs, I just have a hard time seeing $10M. I'm just guessing, but I'm thinking half that with incentives for GS, IP, etc. I am thoroughly intrigued! But I don't know that I'd sign him with the idea of being my #4 SP.
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Minnesota Made: Caleb Thielbar
I like to pride myself on Twins knowledge and a good memory. But I have to be honest that I barely recall his initial time with the Twins. Looking at his stats, they were OK. Not great, but OK. When the Twins brought him back, and I read his story, and I heard about all his changes and increased velocity, saw what he did at AAA for Detroit, I thought "why not take a flier"? But honestly, I wasn't expecting much. What I saw this year surprised me. I DIDN'T see him sit around 93-94 as had been reported. Instead, what I saw was solid breaking stuff and great control. He actually reminded me of Stashak from the port side. I applaud his dedication! I really hope what we saw in 2020 was not a mirage. If it wasn't, he could be a solid middle innings guy for the next few years.
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Maeda a finalist for the Cy Young
I saw nothing from Maeda in this short, weird season to indicate he can't maintain as a top of the rotation starter. One thing that I'm not sure everyone considers is, while he didn't face the East or West, he also faced the same teams multiple times. So to me, again, there is no reason to expect some sort of regression in 2021. He is QUALITY, all the more so after making adjustments. My only concern would be a full 162G season after the Dogers placed him in the pen to help there to finish each year. He may have to be "protected" a bit. IMO, the only thing that stops him from being the Twins #1 in 2021 is Berrios taking that next step. Maeda deserves his consideration, though he obviously won't win. What a great trade!
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Offseason Outlook: Cody’s 2021 Twins Blueprint
Cody, nothing inherently wrong with your roster. But I choose to disagree on a few points. 1] Ozuna is a real talent. You and MLB Traderumors agree at $18M per. He's probably worth that under normal conditions. But we are facing anything but normal right now. I see very few teams willing to commit that kind of $. And we have a whole roster to consider. While I'd love to have him, I reflect on the following ideas: A] Cruz for 1yr at $12-15M...tops...or something like $12-13M with a $10-12M option and a nice $3-4M buyout. You save $ for the roster, aren't handcuffed financially, and have some potentially great bats not only knocking at the door, but ready to break it down. B] Brantley doesn't have Cruz's or Ozuna's pure power, but is probably just as good of a "hitter" with proven veteran production and should come with a cheaper price tag than Ozuna. I'm reading $14M per, but I'm still not sure that will be reality when the smoke clears. 2] Blankenhorn, IMO, is a guy nobody should sleep on. He is athletic and versatile position-wise with a decent bat that has power and he can run a bit. POTENTIALLY, he can play 5 spots decently as a 10th man while bringing something to the offense. The Twins added him to the 40 man, added him to the taxi squad, and promoted him for a game for a reason. But to bank on him to begin 2021 as their 10th man? I don't see it. Even with this expected crazy and unpredictable off-season, the Twins are fortunate that there are a number of very interesting super-utility types available from Cabrera to Profar, etc. I have a tough time believing all of these various options will garner $6-7M contracts. Depth of options should allow someone to be available in the $4-5M range and give Blankenhorn a little more time to be ready. 3] I absolutely LOVE the idea of Kluber on a flier! But that's where I draw the line. He COULD be the biggest SP steal of the 2021 FA class. But at 34yo and injured and virtually invisible for 2yrs, I simply can't see a $10M deal. I think he is at best $4-5M with bonuses that could reach $12M. Again, LOVE to take a shot! But the Twins best rotation options seem to be a half season or so away. And I don't believe they, or most teams, would gamble that much guaranteed cost on a healthy flier considering current conditions financially. Odorizzi, for example, is a safer but lower ceiling bet.
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Fernando Romero
You beat me too it Van! I've been thinking about him for a few weeks now, ever since the season ended and 2021 speculation began. I'm sure somebody is better informed than me, or will have been research links and time to check on his status, but I am going to speculate that unless he and his agent filed paperwork to opt-out of 2020, he would be a "did not report" status and would still have an option remaining. And unless I missed it, I did not see his name among any FA lists. So I am going to assume he still is under the Twins umbrella. We may never know exactly what happened to him in regard to 2020, and maybe we don't need to know. And I am NOT suggesting something nefarious took place, but what a weird situation! Is he a viable BP option? I say ABSOLUTELY, but with the caveat that he missed an incredible opportunity to be part of St Paul last season and is not in EST. So with more than enough time now to get his visa situation in order, the question is; "does be want to play"? Read nothing in to that, just asking the question and offering some speculation. Barring some tremendous ST performance, his path back is through Rochester to begin 2021. No immediate dividends, but he could end up being a factor. He is not Graterol, but his overall stuff is similar in many ways to Alcala. Consistent mj d 90's velocity and nasty breaking pitch but could never find that 3rd pitch or consistent control to remain a SP option. He was a top Twins prospect and I want to remember he was a top 100 prospect at one time. I could be mistaken. I really hope he's not done and will be pitching for Rochester in 2021 and re-establishing himself.