DocBauer

As far as Astudilo goes, I think he's a luxury to have around because he's basically adequate wherever you put him. That being said, his "issues" are not being adequate defensively wherever he's put, it's his bat. Healthy, we have seen him do exactly what he's done his entire milb career which is put the ball in play at a high contact rate for a high average, low SO numbers, and even flash some XB power. And he HAS hit in MLB. The problem has been streaks, whether unhealthy or getting back in the swing of things or pitchers making adjustments he hasn't responded to yet, he has also flailed at times while at the plate. Healthy and making adjustments, I think he can be a valuable 27th-28th man in 2021 and perhaps onward. In regard to the 5th OF or 10th man option, I'm not so sure OF ability is necessary. Let me break it down. OF we have Cave and Wade and Kepler available to fill in CF. So if the Twins brought in a SS and moved Polanco to the 10th man role, they are still covered, for the most part, with Celestino on his way. Now, if they stick with Polanco at SS, considering the OF option they have, I don't think they would NEED to have a 10th man who could also play the OF, though it would be a nice luxury to have. Hence their interest in Hernandez who can actually play CF. But I'm not convinced it is a MUST.

Rosenthal is also my first choice due to velocity, K numbers and being a few years younger too, I believe. I'd like to think he would come in between $5-6M. But I would be fine with Colome on a 1yr. SO are not everything, no matter how nice they are. Ground balls, pop ups, weak fly balls also work. And for him, it's been working for a while now. Just get a good arm and then re-sign Clippard. I wouldn't be opposed to Bradley or Yates either for a little less.

Absolutely the type of flier that should be brought in to compete for the 5th rotation spot. I believe there's going to be more than a few options available late that could be as little as a couple $M in addition to a few potential milb signings/ invites like this. Here's hoping when the dust settles there's a little bit left over to bring a couple of those guys in.

Ted, outstanding piece! Agree 100%! I am not a successful businessman, much less a billionaire, lol. But it seems to me that a successful businessman knows when to invest in the market or his company even when the economy may be down, buying stocks or investing in expansion, etc, playing the long game. The Twins are in that arena right now. The FO preaches competitive sustainability. And analytics, new approaches to development, smart drafts and trades, this team is in a wide open window right now and a window that doesn't have to close anytime soon unless they get silly or stupid with moves. I don't see that happening. Our FO reminds me a lot of another Midwestern franchise in the Cardinals. They just do about everything right. They seldom have a "tank" season and are almost always in the mix and occasionally make a big move to further their opportunity. And by no means do I think our FO is going to copy them. What I see is a FO that is very smart and progressive in so many ways and borrowing from experience from various archetypes to build a foundation. The structure is in place. Now it may take another year or two to see some of the fruits of their labor to see the results despite a couple recent outstanding seasons. And even though we have a top 5-10 farm system in place, not quite as good as the Padres system, do we want to follow their plan exactly? IMO, our current roster and prospect depth is pretty damn nice. And with a FA pool that is so deep, why would we follow the Padres example exactly? In other words, why not keep what we have for NOW and use $ available to complete the roster? Agents...yes agents...have spoken out loud as to how well the Twins handled 2020 and arbitration. They have spoken that they believe the Twins are buyers. Jim Pohland has stated the Twins are not looking to recoup 2020 "loses". Where there is enough smoke, I figure there is a fire brewing. Unless bargains fall in their lap, I think the idea of a $125M payroll may be an illusion. I am thinking the FO will hold on to their milb talent for the future and ownership will keep the 2021 payroll around the $135-ish mark of last year. With that number, give or take a couple $M, they can keep Cruz, sign one of the top 3 SS, add a quality SP, add another RP, another INF and maybe have a $M or 2 left over for a 5th SP option. The Twins don't HAVE to trade anyone to complete their roster. They can keep what they have, make a couple additions, and keep payroll around the $135-138M mark and still be one of the best teams in MLB. Follow the Padres? Yes in regards to being aggressive and taking advantage of the market and opportunity. No in trading half of your system top 20 when you have $ to spend on various 1yr and 2yr deals.

I appreciate your idea, Cooper, and your intent. But as you stated, and as Rocco has stated, there is no plan at this time for a traditional closer. But I do think your idea has real merit in that Rogers, Duffey and someone I believe not yet signed yet could end up being the true "firemen" with someone like Robles finishing off or "closing" the game with a sufficient lead. And ideally, there would be a lot of games where the offense would provide that kind of cushion. But it doesn't always work out that way, of course. For those who long for a Hendricks or Hand signing, while it could happen I believe, it doesn't mean they would be brought on board as a definitive closer either. They would be a high leverage arm but that doesn't mean a traditional 9th inning spot. Baseball evolved in to having closers but seems to be evolving again in to matchups. The 8th and even the 7th innings can be higher stress than the 9th depending on the score and the other team's lineup. I absolutely will not disparage Hand, Hendricks or anyone similar. So please understand that. But we have seen a number of 30yo plus RP arms signed to multi year contracts that suddenly turn volatile. Reed, signed a couple years ago, is a slightly lower grade example. Are the Twins potentially better off with Rosenthal, a bounce back candidate in Yates or the even younger Bradley for somewhere around $5-6M? If so, then you probably have room to bring in one additional arm like maybe Clippard for $2.5-3M to deepen the pen even further. I hated to lose May, but if you give me FA TBD along with Rogers, Duffey, Robles, Alcala, Clippard, Stashak and Thielbar with depth options I'm very optimistic regardless of who "closes" and when.

I'm OK with this moves and not exactly surprised. He's relatively young with velocity and seems a perfect candidate for Johnson to work with. But I am surprised by the contract. I firmly believed Soria and Clippard would be targets...and may yet be...that would cost a minimum of $2M and would probably be in the $2.5 to $3M range based on age and the market saturation.

I think we're all interested in Tanaka but just expect he will still re-sign with the Yankees. If not, would he want to be in the Midwest? I still think the best replacement for Odorizzi is Odorizzi. I am interested in Walker and Richards, both of whom appear healthy at this time. Kluber, healthy, at 85-90% of his old self would be very interesting. But is he, can he be that? Why does the answer seem so obvious to me?

MLTreaderumors has always been pretty smart when it comes to potential contracts. With the market being ice cold at this point, and so many questions are payrolls and number or games and even the start of the season, I think their projected numbers are high. They have Semien at 1yr and $15M. I'm thinking $13M might be max. And I could go for that. I'm throwing out his 2020 offense, as I would for a lot of players. And he may indeed not be the bat he was in 2019. But good defense and the player he was 2015-2018 would still be pretty good. I don't know anyone has to be written in ink as the "utility" guy per se as there would be a ton of flexibility. What would very intriguing to me, is there a number of solid, versatile infielders out there that could be signed for $2-3M such as Cabrera, Frazier, Miller, etc. This could make the infield outstanding for 2021. IF some of the rumors are true that the FO and ownership are treating 2020 as an outlier and may be considering keeping payroll close to 2020 level, then you might still have Cruz for about $13M, a SP for $8-12M, room for 2-3 solid BP arms for $8-11M, and keep payroll in the $135M range. Yes, a lot of speculation. But speculation that isn't unwarranted, IMO. Adding Semien shouldn't handcuff them from other moves and could really solidify the infield.

I think this is a very smart OP and full of value. I enjoyed the perspective very much. And I think you brought to light a very smart approach to how this off season will ultimately play out. The #1 issue is, of course, nobody has a bead yet exactly where payroll will end up. A 10% cut to roughly $125M or believing speculation the Twins may be kinda/sorta "all in" and keep payroll in the $135-138M payroll they began 2020 in with a team in a competitive window? And we all know that budget and a potential Cruz signing might be the initial talking/sticking points. But without going crazy or trying to speculate actual $ numbers which are virtually impossible at this point, I think we can make a few educated guesses. 1] I see Clippard back and Soria brought on board for a combined $4-6M. Despite having some nice arms on hand, these 2, prospects, and a group of milb FA that might produce a surprise, I could see a Bradley or Yates for $5M also being added. That means 3 competent arms added for about $10M total. Quite the steal! IF payroll allows, yes, you could drop another $2M for Hand, Henricks or Rosenthal. I just don't think that's the direction the FO is looking. But they also understand value. 2] The rotation needs a 4th option and there are many available even if you dismiss Bauer and even Tanaka. (Not sure I'd totally rule out Tanaka). Between Oddo, Richards, Walker, Wood, etc, there is a collection of very solid SP options who could combine with Pineda to give the Twins a VERY nice #3-4 combination for $8-13M depending on not only the market but 1yr vs 2-3yrs. And I just can't shake the idea of Kluber on some sort of deal as well. The depth of the FA market could easily see a 5th option brought in to camp on a cheap 1yr deal for a couple $M to an invite with incentives to compete with Dobnak and prospects. But I don't see a Bauer signing in any way. POTENTIALLY, the Twins could add a quality 4th SP and maybe a cheap flier for $10-15M tops. How often can you do that? 3] The Twins need/want a 10th man. Hernandez would be nice, even though I prefer Profar. (Too much OF depth for the 10th man to HAVE to be a viable OF option). But no way do I pay more than $6M for anyone. There are just too many options out there to overspend. The Twins sign a SS and move Polanco to the 10th man role? Great. You then have a list of at least a half dozen guys from Frazier, Gyorko, Miller and Cabrerra and others for a couple $M to be a quality 11th man. Or you can be super cheap and re-sign a solid Adrianza or similar but why pinch pennies at that point? Want to keep Polanco at SS? Sign Hernandez, already rumored, and then spend another couple of $M for any of the names I just listed as your 11th man. 4] I think they are more than comfortable at catcher. But I also believe they are smart enough to jump on something like a $1M+ deal for a veteran option for depth just to cover themselves if they have a little extra sitting around. SHORT? The Twins will sign 2 viable, proven BP arms but not go crazy, and they don't have to in this market. A very good bet they will extend $ for 5-7M for what will prove to be a steal. They will sign a SP for $8-10M from a collective group with a possibility of $12-13M. They will NOT sign any DH unless it be Cruz, but they will sign a veteran bat such as Brantley or Schwarber who can actually play in the field but for no more than 2yrs. I am not opposed to trades, but I would rather keep what we have and be smart and take advantage of the current market within reason. And for the most part, I think that is the direction the FO will take. Potentially, it gives them ammunition for 2021 and beyond.

Not saying i am sold on a trade with the Reds as speculated here...for the record I prefer the FA route at this time and hold on to prospects until we get another half season to full season of further development and evaluation...but there is real merit to a move here. Nothing wrong with a move for Gray from a team looking to shed payroll and pick up a couple of prospects. And the cost shouldn't be all that high. But I do see the idea of a younger Castillo, with additional potential and better $ control along with Castellanos, as maybe being the better option. Now, said trade is going to cost a pair of top 15-20 prospects and at least a throw-in, whether that be a lower prospect or someone like Cave, who could be a nice temporary option for the Reds. Castellanos is NOT Cruz. But honestly, we aren't 100% sure which version of Cruz we might get in 2021. And if looks like we can't come to terms, Castellanos is an OF/DH with a decent bat and good power as a "replacement" for about the same $ cost per year. In fact, IF the Reds truly are in "savings" mode, taking on Castellanos might lower the package from someone like Duran or Balazovic being included to someone like Enlow or Cantarino instead. (Not that they are poor prospects). Not my preferred way to go, but I see match and merit here potentially.

Fantastic. Just fantastic.

Rumors, rumors, rumors. The Twins will be buyers. The Twins are "in" on a lot of good FA. The Twins MIGHT be in line for a major trade. Plus, ownership has stated they are not looking to recoup any losses from 2020. What does it mean when you add it all up? Who knows? Covid, financial losses, still no clue for 2021 in regard to a start time, how many games, how many fans, etc. No wonder the MLB world is so quiet. But I do believe in the old adage of "where there's smoke there is fire". I have little belief the Twins will be involved in any major trade for a 1yr player with hopes of an expensive extension. Just not prudent, or in keeping with the approach of our FO. What your numbers and all the rumors DO SAY TO ME is the Twins will not cut their "initial" 2020 payroll, or only have a slight cut. Now, I'm confused by the numbers you posted for 2020 as initial reports, IIRC, were south of $140M, not including bonus earnings. So if I read your adjusted 2019 to 2020 payroll numbers, the Twins raised an adjusted payroll approximately $6.5M. My biggest takeaway was still finishing at 19th in MLB, meaning they still hadn't hit the medium yet. Again, I do not expect some major trade that others hope for or speculate. They want sustainability and aren't willing to "gut" the system for an addition or two when the market is ripe to simply add vs trade. IMO, they will keep the payroll basically where it was to begin 2020. That would mean approximately $50M available, maybe slightly less, on a sliding scale of proration that is not yet determined. That is more than enough to augment the existing roster in a variety of ways from a SP not named Bauer, a quality bat that may or may not be Cruz, a couple nice 10th/11th man players and a couple of three RP in a flooded market. Might even have a couple $M left over for a 5th SP flier and a cheap veteran catcher option. I am guessing no major trade, but smart FA signings, a couple late deals, and maybe a small trade for someone they like. They payroll comes in, un-ajusted, around $135-140M. Pretty much how they began 2020.

Not addressing any of the rumors or speculation, simply the idea of a major trade. But I do think it's hard to always define what is a major trade. For example, Graterol wasn't a "major" trade because no All Star type, high salary players were involved. But it sure was a major trade when you talk about impact. A couple points to address: 1] The FO and ownership are not opposed to spending money and bumping payroll as long as it makes sense and brings value. But they also understand their market and their is a difference between value or being frugal vs being cheap, OR overspending vs return. 2] This FO is not opposed to trading young talent. But it also seems they are also always looking for a control factor in their return because... 3]...they want sustainability for the organization. And that's not just financial control or flexibility, it's having a quality milb system of drafting/signing and development. The deeper and better your system, the more "replacement" players you have to promote, but you then have more depth to trade for additions to your roster as well. The Twins have $ to spend this off-season, whether it be $35M or $50M. And they have enough depth within the system to deal 5-7 really nice prospects to bring someone or a pair of someone's to the team. But at some point, if you trade away top prospects, you better get a good return, AND, you have to then replace what you sent away. Of course, smart drafting and smart development allows you to do that. But it doesn't happen over night either. I don't believe the FO is adverse to making a big move. But I simply don't believe they would make any move for ANYONE on a 1yr deal. I think there is a much greater chance for a Darvish type move than a 1yr SS.

Absolutely understand this viewpoint 100%. I think having Astudillo as an extra option for the Twins as well as St Paul is a bit of a luxury. Telis much the same, but as a catcher only. He's really an emergency type, but has ML experience and at least hasn't embarrassed himself in his time. Beyond Rortvedt things do appear at first glance to be weak lower in the system. The problem is youth. Hamilton has been converted to catcher fairly recently and has position flexibility. I have serious doubts about his bat. The other guys are just young/inexperienced and right now we just have no idea if they have any real potential. And now missing a whole season just keeps the book of questions wide open. I think they need to add another good looking prospect or two here, no question. But I think if we actually have a full season in 2021, a couple of these guys could take a step forward. Unfortunately, that's true at almost every position.

Plains men? Traded for a reason. He was solid in 2018 for a disappointing team. He was largely excellent in 2019 and made the All Star game. He slumped a bit and finished strong. He is coming off a ridiculous 2020 from back spasms early and a wicked chest contusion and and a crazy bloody blister. He suffered no arm or elbow issues. How is he not a quality 3rd starter brought back for 2021 or beyond?

Plainsmen?

This. I understand it is a "way too early projection" OP. I get it. It's an attempt to examine the NOW that leads to speculation and projection TOMORROW with reflection. But it really is way too early. The Dirty Sox have made a couple nice moves. The Twins haven't made a SINGLE one yet of any significance. But I would still put the Twins #1 at this point. You still have to do it on the field. In order to be the best, you have to beat the best. Now, someone a little more tech savy than me cue up a Rick Flair GIF. You out there Ash? LOL

I appreciate the numbers and reasons. All sound. And I'm more than willing to give pitchers and catchers across baseball, not just the Twins, a mulligan for 2020 because it was a strange year and we saw SO many examples of odd performances. Garver, IMO, is NOT what we saw in 2019. I mean, we are talking HOF, all time spectacular numbers! But he also not what we saw in 2020. And I don't need the 3 points in the OP to tell me that. He hit in college. He hit in the minors and was named the hitter of the year twice IIRC. He hit pretty well in his 2018 rookie season. I tend to agree with JLease, even if he hits like 2018...and I think he's better than that...with his growth behind the plate, he's a very good and valuable catcher.

I wanted to nominate myself for the award but: A] I didn't want to appear too normal or cocky. B] I missed the deadline for entrance anyway. C] I didn't want to make anyone else feel bad. D] Why ruin a perfectly good streak at this point. I mean, until the Twins win a meaningful playoff series at least. E] I didn't want to appear too normal or cocky. Oops, may have blown it there at the end.

Here is what sucks, Donaldson, Polanco and Arraez, HEALTHY, provide the Twins with a VERY GOOD infield! Period! There are, unfortunately, questions. All the more reason why the 10th and 11th man additions are so important. Blankenship and Gordon are prospects that could have a real role going forward, but you can't bank on them at this point. Hence FA options which abound! Arraez will never be a speed demon. He may never be a Gold Glove defender. He will never be, probably, a real power threat. But he is a natural hitter with a great eye and is a BALLPLAYER. Despite playing through a knee issue that we all hope was minor, he still hit and was productive. He's talented enough, smart enough, that he was OK playing around the field his rookie season in 2019 to think HE could be a 10th man vs Polanco. Not saying it should happen, just saying it could happen. Healthy, this infield has TREMENDOUS possibilities. And yes, like SS, there is some interesting depth within the system. But Arraez is the 2B for now. And he should be. In fact, a healthy Arraez should be the #1 batter in 2021 and allow Kepler to adjust and thrive lower in the order.

There is nothing wrong with having a productive and even powerful bat at 1B. Duh! And there is also nothing wrong with having a quality glove at 1B as well. And if you look at 1B defensively over 30+ years, the Twins have generally had a quality 1B defensively. Sano has work to do defensively at 1B from footwork to just not beating up his own teammates chasing a pop-up. And at times, he forgot he was no longer a 3B and tried to get to balls he needed to let go and just play his bag. These are things he will learn. For the most part, he played an adequate 1B and handled scoops the way you would hope a former SS, former 3B would handle them. He just needs to learn and understand the nuances of the position. His bat plays at an All Star level if he just plays within himself, despite some streaky-ness. And like a lot of players, Twins and across all of baseball, I'm willing to let a lot of 2020 slide. Let's all just admit it was a weird season with a lot of weird results. I think a clean slate for 2021 is warranted for everyone. Depth-wise, of course, there are a multitude of options. Barring trades, there is absolutely the possibility of Sano moving to primary DH with Khirilloff playing 1B. Rooker can also fill in. And Donaldson could also fit in at 1B as part of a transition. But there is also NO REASON why any sort of transition needs to take place NOW. Other than roster and lineup flexibility, Sano is the 1B. AK plays the OF but can play 1B. Donaldson is the primary 3B, but can DH here and there and might transition to some 1B. Really, nothing to see here. No issues. No problems. Not going to lie, however, I DID NOT see Sabato as our pick in the last draft. In fact, I actually liked the potential of every other pick besides him based on projectability. And I'm not trying to demean the young man. I just didn't see him as a 1st round choice despite his bat and questionable position ability. But, I'm reminded of Jeffers. He was a bat with questions about his ability to be a catcher. I think any questions there have already been laid to rest. I'm trusting the FO on this one.

A high quality team, a wide open window of contention, a fairly young roster, a quality system that should provide additions and maintained success and opportunity, I take a contrary opinion in regard to a SINGLE big splash. In MY opinion, the Twins are indeed circling, as stated. But MY OPINION is they are looking at a series of moves WITHOUT cutting payroll, or only doing so slightly. $50M dollars does a LOT to add to the OVERALL team vs a SINGLE splash. You want the most bang for your buck, but how about Cruz, 3 pen arms, a pair of 10th/11th bench pieces and a quality rotation add with a flier for another? Think: Cruz: $15M Oddoorizzi: $13M Hand/Henricks: $9M Clippard/Soria: $6M Hernandez/Frazier: $9M And I'm just spitballing some numbers and names as the FA class is DEEP, and there will most certainly be some bargains available late. Especially in the pen and 5th SP types. So a splash may not necessarily mean ONE GUY, but rather just being smart and aggressive and not cutting payroll.

I'm still betting on a 1yr deal with MAYBE some 2nd year option based on AB/PA and with incentives. The reality is, even with a unified DH, there is still a limited number of teams that want/need/can afford a bat only 41yr old DH. I think $18M is a no go. I think $12M-ish probably won't get it done. Betting $14-15M for 1yr gets it done and everyone is happy.

I am not excited by the 3B options in the system, but I am cautiously optimistic. We're obviously short at the high levels. But I'm not sure that should be unexpected when Sano WAS penciled as the 3B and then we signed Donaldson. Of course, we need some form if 10th and possibly 11th man to shore up that spot. I maintain that Lewis could end up at 3B, even initially. And that's not an indictment of his ability to play SS, but rather the possibility of just getting the best infielders in the lineup at once between Arraez, Polanco and Lewis himself. I have hope that Blankenship will eventually earn a bench spot as a decent hitter with power and multi-position flexibility. And it's obvious the Twins like him or he wouldn't be on the 40 man, wouldn't have been in St Paul last year and wouldn't have gotten his brief cup of coffee. And despite being a fairly large young man, he's reported to be a quality athlete who can even run a bit. I don't know if he's quite ready yet, but what confuses me is the shift toward 2B and the OF and away from 3B, but if not mistaken, he played some 3B last camp and while on the reserve list. I'd like to think be can be at least adequate at the hit corner with a decent bat. I think there is real hope for Miranda. His not being protected or rule 5 selected is due to youth. He hasn't had anything close to a monster year by any means, but he's flashed a bit. 2021 could really determine his future. I was excited for Bechtold when drafted. He is reported as being excellent defensively with a solid bat and at least some power and potential. Then he bottomed out in 2018. Really nice to see him rebound in 2019, but like Miranda, his 2021 season should establish just how good he might be...or not. Mack, Steer and Gray are just too new to the system to really comment with any real opinion at this point. And this just goes to show how hard it is to evaluate on hand talent with a lost 2020 season. Steer and Gray were drafted in 2019 and have a half season of ball with varying degrees of positive success. There is just no way to really project them at this point. Meanwhile, Mack was drafted high out of HS and has a pair of short league season's before covid. While I appreciate the whole positional analysis idea, 3B may be the hardest to project or quantify in the entire system at this point. It's not that there aren't some recent draft choices over the past 3 years, it's just that most are too young or inexperienced to really know what we have at this point. But I will throw a dark horse option at you: Wander Javier. Yes, yes, yes...so many tools and so many injuries and now a missed season. BUT, he has tools. And will only be 22yo in 2021 even though it feels like he's been around forever. And from all reports, be bas filled out, grown in to his body, and is no longer the skinny SS he was previously. If he can just be healthy and play a full season again, I've thought for some time he might slide to 3B at some point.

Been staying from this thread for a while deliberately. Just can't get too excited for a team that is in re-build or re-tool. Sorry to say for haters, but numbers don't lie. Cousins is not spectacular, but he's still good. Really good at times. But there is just so much missing on thjs team right now that it depresses me, despite a recent run of wins. Special teams are a joke. Pass protection in questionable at best. I've seen improvement from Bradbury and I'm almost thinking we might have something in Cleveland sticking at G. But is that what he was drafted for? OL is still a mess, IMO, and needs to be addressed. And I echo "where is Udo"? Just plug him and see what happens. The RB talent behind Cook isn't great but It's good. But only he can gain yards? Encouraged by the young CB. Nice to see the TE talent finally get a chance.