DocBauer

Going to add a thought here. Now, I believe Nellie wants to come back and I believe the Twins want him back. While I believe the FO knows they have a couple needs and wants, I believe they will push payroll to some degree to make those additions and still bring Cruz back. He is a short game addition, but an important one for the lineup. And I'm going to repeat a post I made in another forum section, but even with something like a 10-15% reduction in overall performance in the coming season, his bat would prove valuable to the lineup. IMO, he's a short game because all 3 of Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach will be getting their feet wet and contributing to different degrees while preparing for 2022 and beyond. But if it doesn't happen, for whatever reason, then despite a call to add additional pitching, one thing I would really hope the Twins would do is add another infield option. And there are some guys out there that I really think could help. Why go this direction? Well, forgoing to obvious depth factor in case of injury, it would provide more options for Arraez and even Donaldson to remain in the lineup while taking half days off. Think about a couple $M for bats like Gyorko, Cabrera or Schoop to play a couple positions and provide depth and production. What about Frazier or Miller? Unless I missed a signing somewhere, i think all of these guys are free. And all of them have some versatility and offensive potential to fill in at spots in the field. All should come relatively cheap, and not hinder adding another arm or two. While not dismissing Cruz in any way at this point...and he could sign quickly so who knows for sure...just think about this player roster: C: Garver/Jeffers INF: Sano, Polanco, Simmons, Donaldson, Arraez, and player X OF: Kepler, Buxton, Kiriloff, Wade and Rooker. Tremendous daily lineup versatility across the OF and INF with DH being filled by various combinations. It allows for everyone to get regular time in the field and at the plate while also allowing your "top 9-10" to be in the batting order most days. This also further allows Arraez, your new 10th man, even greater opportunity to be in the lineup DAILY. And let's face it, however Rocco wants to build his BO, isn't it time Arraez becomes the leadoff man and slide Kepler down to a more power/RBI slot? I'll still be surprised if Cruz isn't brought back. But if not, and additional $ is spent on pitching, I really hope a couple $M would be spent on another INF addition to increase depth and versatility options.

I'm going to play the GOOD/BAD game that has been used often lately on the front page articles concerning various players. BAD: Despite a poor initial entrance to ML life, Berrios has shown incredible stuff and great stretches of success. Too often for comfort, he has found either his location/control wandering with his pitches, or complete loss of control and "misses" with a pitch that seemed to work previously to embarrass hitters. With his lack of length, he doesn't always seem to be "on top" of his delivery and arm action, and that may be an ongoing concern for him to find the consistency he needs. He is very determined to be the best he can be. He is a workout warrior to prepare for each season physically. All of this is to the good for him. But he has slid the second half of each season and there is concern he works out too hard during the season to maintain his endurance for a full season. To his and the Twins credit, he adjusted and lightened his workout load in 2019 and responded well after a short dip to finish strong. GOOD: Berrios will never be 6' plus and long. But he doesn't have to be. Despite some inconsistencies with his velocity and secondary stuff, he can not only "bring it" most days, but his secondary pitches can make grown ML batters cry at times. His secondary stuff only needs a little more refinement for consistency that could make him borderline elite or "ACE" status. His attitude and work ethic are outstanding. He's earned a pair of deserved All Star performances. His adjusted mid-season workout routine in 2019 allowed him to rebound from a small slump to finish the season strong. Unfortunately, 2020 happened for a lot of players/pitchers and we weren't able to see the results of his new routine over a full season. But again to his ability and dedication, possibly maturity as well, we saw him rebound from a rough first half, while reportedly adjusting and making a few tweaks, to finish as strong as he has ever been over his last 7 starts. Only 27yo, the biggest problem Berrios may have is expectations. Both his own, and expectations from a fan base hungry for a home grown front of the rotation SP. He is primed right now where age and experience meet and he's ready to raise his total performance to a level that he could be the #1 SP/ACE the Twins have been looking for since the departure of Johan Santana, with all due respect to Maeda. And if be does nothing more than establish himself as a stud #2, that is worth a lot for the Twins. Tell me I'm wrong! Pay me now or pay me later. The time to re-sign Berrios is now. If it's next season, the value grows. If it's after 2021, he may be gone.

Just a couple bullet points before I address the meat of the OP. 1] Nobody has stated anywhere what payroll will be, or is "targeted" at. NOTE: contending teams seem to be making moves and non-conteners really aren't. Hmmm...interesting. The FO knows what is taking place, make no mistake. 2] Despite general conjecture, the current FO has pushed payroll higher each of the last few years than speculation would have us believe. They embrace value and opportunity while recognizing potential need. Despite "reports" from agents and "those in the know" that the Twins would be buyers, the FO did what they usually do and practice patience, no matter how much it may frustrate us fans, lol. Suddenly they pounce on Happ and Simons. Now we hear similar reports they have TWO major moves yet to make. Now, we have NO IDEA what they are thinking. They could surprise and pull a rabbit or two out of hat we just don't see right now. They've done it before! But it's not hard to look at need, opportunity and availability and realize Cruz is one of those moves. Also very easy to see another bullpen arm as the second move. Cruz is going to cost about $13-15M. While all of us would be excited for Rosenthal at $7M, adding a power arm, it seems more likely, IMO, for Comlome or Soria for $4-5M. And either of those additions are NICE as proven arms despite lacking major heat. Velocity is great, SO are sexy, but at the end of the day, performance is what matters most. Again, no budget number actually reported...and why would they...these two moves put payroll only around $130-132M. What SHOULD they do, and what do I HOPE they will do? They will continue to embrace opportunity and value as they have done previously. With only a few weeks until ST, there is a HUGE list of FA options looking for jobs/opportunity. INFIELD: Reflecting a different OP, YES, the Twins could have at least one of the best infields in all of MLB. But there are enough questions/concerns about a knee, an ankle and a calf that I have to ask, why would you stop adding depth now? There are at least a half dozen or more interesting options that might be signed for $2-4M max who can play around the infield and have bat potential. BULLPEN: I'm just going to yet again mention Clippard here, who the Twins are supposedly still in contact with. He's had a pretty amazing and very consistent career as a middle man for 1 and 2yr deals for between $2-3M. The list of available pen arms is as long as my arm right now. Some have question marks, of course. But depth of numbers, value and opportunity exist. You don't think they might not sign an "extra" bullpen in February here as We'll? ROTATION: IMO, barring a BIG surprise, which I mentioned previously, the top 4 spots are set. The Twins like Dobnak. They should. They haven't given up on Thorpe yet, clearly, regardless what they see his role being. They have some interesting and some TOP prospects on their way. But are they really done? I think not. Like the RP market, there is a long list of options looking for a chance. Again, there may be questions about age, injury, rebound, etc. But there remains vast opportunity for a cheap ML signing or a split milb/ML signing with invite and opt out etc, to add someone. Think the oftmentioned Foltynewicz just as an example, or the recovering Teheran. There are others. Do you sign with a non contending team? Or do you sign with a winning team and this FO, Johnson as pitching coach, and a 5th spot opening opportunity? With real ML $ available, guaranteed or incentives, three signings in these areas pushes the Twins payroll to the $138-140M they spent last year. Does this work? Back to the beginning, there is no payroll set. Opportunity and value present themselves. Contending teams are spending. The Twins are a contending team. The FO knows what is happening across baseball, make no mistake. Forgetting rabbits and magic tricks that could happen, don't be surprised by a pair of signings followed by a handful of "interesting" signings that could be really valuable.

Tom, very articulate and well thought out. So well done, this could easily be a front page article. I agree with every point made in your arguement even if I don't feel it's going to turn out the way you state it. While I love MLB going to a 26 man roster, I would prefer 27, and I thought the 28 man roster for 2020 was outstanding. I really wish they would bump the final number to one of those for the general good of the players as well as the game. I also want the roster bumped because if Cruz is back, SOMEONE has to be at AAA that I don't want there! LOL I greatly prefer a 27 man roster split 13/13 with the final spot to be determined by the team as best need/fit. It's been widely reported the Twins have TWO moves yet to make, though IMO, it should two major moves and two or three additional small moves. While we don't knkw what the FO has in mind I do believe Cruz is one of those. I believe another solid/quality BP is the other. You are correct that we simply don't know what the actual payroll projection is. What we DO KNOW is, INCLUDING projected bonus earnings for Maeda, we now sit just about spot on $112M with the Simons signing. We also can feel pretty certain Cruz will cost somewhere around $13-15M. That puts the Twins just about dead on for the speculated $125M tossed about. But we also know payroll has always escalated somewhat above projections with our current FO. They understand value when it comes their way. Ownership seems to agree. So while I would be extremely happy to see the power arm of Rosenthal brought on board for $7M, I speculate it will be something like Colome or Soria for $4-5M. (Though I hold out hope for Rosenthal). These two moves still keep payroll right around the $130M mark. But I mentioned two or three smaller moves didn't I? I believe there will remain enough flexibility...plus FA depth opportunity...to add yet another RP, Clippard maybe, and another utility option and potential 5th SP option all at below market value. Maybe there's a milb deal/invite in there somewhere. Great blog post!! I just think need and opportunity are going to see some additions, including Cruz.

Huge fan of Eddie. Loved his exuberance and those crazy momentous doubles and HR's that won games. Or the crazy baserunning that duked the other team. Also going to miss those missile strikes to a base on occasion. But the transition to Kirilloff is noth necessary and understandable. I wish Eddie the best, except when he plays us.

All the more reason to look at the FA INF depth available now, and probably available 3-4 weeks from now and sign an inexpensive veteran 11th man to the roster.

We forget how young Lewis is. How much improvement happened for him in 2020? Wouldn't be shocked if Simons was back in 2022.

Late bloomer, disappointing first year and no 2020. Just can't put Cavaco this high on a list even though I wish for the best and have a lot of faith in the FO and their scouting department. Thought I did hear he looked decent at instructs though and had added some good muscle weight to get ready for 2021. Crossing my fingers for him .

I am holding out hope for Miranda. It just FEELS like he is talented enough to "get it" and put it together over the next year or two and push his way forward. A battle between him and Blankenhorn to be the next 10th man and future 3B option? Maybe. Sands...WOW...can you just stay healthy? We talk about the "Cleveland" influence. And we get obsessed with Duran and Balozic for good reason. But Sands and Winder could be SO GOOD and push those two in the next year or so. Prospects are still that for now, but I haven't seen this many SP in the system for years now that garner real optimism.

All of this is arbitrary, of course. But I wouldn't place De Andre so high as a recent 16yo signing despite projection. Same might be said for Rodriguez, though I understand projection. Just not sure it's fair to place them this high so soon, especially with the overall depth of the system. Especially considering Sano and Javeier signings of the past. I might move them down a 10 notch based on what is on hand and their youth. Soularie is very interesting. He seems to be athletic, with hit and pop/power potential. He was the least exciting draft choice the Twins made last year, IMO. I wasn't crazy about Saboto, but I got it. Raya, even as a high ceiling flier was the most impressive draft choice to me. Soularie seems/feels like Rosario part 2. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. Feels like he is an athlete who could play 2B, CF, (which I believe he did some) or LF. I always appreciate but somewhat discount scout profiles. I'd rather believe in the FO's opinion. Think Jeffers for example. But is he really worth this high a ranking with so many question marks? I say no nd would drop him at this point to the next 10 until we actually see him play.

I LOVE this and not just because we have something substantial to talk about now, lol. My first choice was Semien because I thought he brought the most balance of both offense and defense. But $18M??? NO WAY!! This was my 2nd choice as far as the FA SS that were available. No matter how good they are, I never wanted to part with any top prospects for a potential trade rental of Story or Baez. And I never thought the FO wanted to do that either. Financially, this is a bargain based on most projections I've seen. That is not unimportant as it provides more $ financial wiggle room. Part of the beauty of this is beyond the ability and the contract. Something I'm not sure everyone gets. The Twins don't HAVE to name Polanco OR Arraez as the 10th man. There is room for BOTH. I believe Marwin, based on 2019 and the pro-rated numbers for 2020, would have him around 450+ AB. So again, room for EVERYONE! For the moment, forget about Cruz. Forget a cheap 5th SP flier and a hopeful BP addition or two. Yes, Cruz will afford some coin. But they have it to spend. A 5th SP flier won't be expensive. And yes, there are some very interesting BP options to add that won't break the bank. But for a moment, just focus on the infield. We shouldn't stop here! INSURE the infield is as deep and versatile as the OF is! Especially considering there remain some injury concerns, even though we hope for the best. I am NOT taking anything away from the excitement I have, or we should all have, from this move. But we still have need for an 11th man. History and just daily depth and options tell us this. Have you taken time to just look at the remaining options out there? Think about Cabrera for $2-3M at 1B/2B/3B. Gyorko, Frazier, Miller, Schoop, Villar, and there are others to consider as well. There could be great value here for our FO who likes to lay low and wait.

Combination of bad auto-correct and being very tired, but you are correct. We got just short of 12". Seventh highest on record. Fun, fun, fun!

Now that I've been home for a few hours, shoveled TWICE and completed various household chores, I'm ready to add a few comments to an interesting OP that may die tomorrow, lol. But here goes: PAYROLL: The FO,and ownership, have pushed payroll each year since this group has been running things as value presents itself. They have basically stated they know they are not done, acknowledge there is value out there, and have repeated their own past mantra that they are willing to buy late rather than shoo early and go home. Watching what is happening across baseball right now, teams that appear to be contenders are making moves and seem to be keeping payroll at 2020 levels, or higher while teams that don't appear to be contenders are sitting out FA, making cuts, or small moves. IMO, I believe the "target" payroll for the Twins is around $130M with leeway because they recognize there are going to be some late options to be had. NEEDS: 1A] A BAT: Ozuna is nice, but with a group of very promising bats ready and nearly ready, they don't need to tie up 4yrs on Ozuna. Cruz absolutely makes the most sense. 1yr is a done deal. A 2nd yr can work with discount/performance numbers or a fair buyout. Perhaps a combination of all. It makes the most sense for both sides. 1B] INFIELDER: This could be any of the top 3 FA SS or someone like La Stella as a valuable 3 position 10th man. Signing a SS is a greater $ cost, but might add more total value and hedges against some of the ankle and knee concerns with Polanco and Adrianza. Both are young and talented and whichever one slides in to the 10th man role they STILL play almost daily. Where there is smoke there is often fire. I think the FO is looking HARD at one of the FA SS. (Note: If they keep Polanco at SS, then in addition to a valued 10th man, they need a legitimate Adrianza type to cover SS as the 11th man.) Cruz and a SS signing means the payroll sits around $128-130M, or the "target" area. But again, it's only a target and not necessarily the final destination. There is a difference between LIKING your roster/depth/flexibility and LOVING your roster/depth/flexibility. It doesn't take a savant to look at the total number of FA available to realize there are going to be solid guys looking for jobs and be available on value deals. 3] 11th MAN INFIELDER: With enough concern about Donaldson, Polanco and Adrianza health wise...even with hope/expectation they will all 3 be ready to go...why wouldn't you add inexpensive insurance? IF they stick with Polanco at SS, and sign a quality 10th man he probably doesn't play SS. Instead he plays 1B/2B/3B like La Stella, for example. So you need that Adrianza AS replacement. IF they sign a SS, Polanco can cover SS whether he is the 10th man or the starting 2B. Why not deepen your roster with another quality infielder on the cheap? An example I've brought up before, but how about Cabrera as a veteran bat for something like $3M? And there are others that could be valuable. 4] 5th SP: What about a $2-4M option...maybe with some incentives...or an invite with incentives to compete with Dobnak for the 5th spot? There is enough depth on the FA list that there could be a late rotation flier that costs very little. 5] BULLPEN: There won't be a major $ signing. But how about Colome or Soria for $3-5M? And maybe Clippard for $2-3M in addition? Not including a couple $M in incentives for a SP option, you could POTENTIALLY add an 11th man, 5th SP, and 1 or 2 BP arms come February for a total of around $10-12M. That pushes the payroll to the $140M-ish range. Which is keeping payroll in line with 2020 and in line with the payroll of contending teams at this point. AGAIN, there is a difference between LIKING your team and LOVING your team.

I am fully OK with an upgrade at SS and some sort of transference of Polanco or Arraez to a utility role. Any way you can upgrade your team, it's a good thing. But I have to say I think upgrading the bench in GENERAL is what's important, and that's not necessary adding that SS. I mean, does that SS mean you are done and can't bring in another bat? No more SP or RP options? Only one of the above options? Now it still comes down to final payroll. But right now, someone like La Stella to play 3 spots and provide a nice bat and an Adrianza replacement for SS and the 11th man role makes a lot of sense to me. That's half of the $ to bring in a SS and gives you more money for the other spots to be added to the roster yet. So how much positive value does a new SS add to the team as a whole vs adding a couple nice 10th and 11th man options and still have some $ to add another 2 or 3 players?

Rosenthal is still there if you are looking for a potential difference maker. History says I wouldn't go expensive, but I'd trust Rocco to use him right and Johnson to keep the walks down. Soria is still out there as a 1yr option who could fit in nicely. Why isn't Clippard already on board who can handle both sides of the plate in the middle innings on the cheap? TOTALLY understand the talent on hand and coming up. But there are too many arms and innings missing. I don't want to trust Alcala and others out of the gate. Blew it on Yates, IMO, but there is still room to add a valuable arm or two for 2021 to deepen the pen and allow the kids time to prove themselves.

Nothing against local boy Hand, but Rosenthal would be my Choice as well. I trust Rocco's pen usage of him and Johnson to keep the walks under control

I'm OK with this move. I'm not great with it, but I'm OK with it. He's very solid, deepens the rotation and provides a bridge for the young guys. I like the move even more if Happ is part 1 of 2 parts and someone else is being brought on board.

I wasn't bummed out about Hendricks. I am bummed about Yates. He may never come back to what he was. But at $5M, I thought be was a PERFECT addition to the Twins. I have a lot of trust in our team to build a bullpen. And to be fair, there still remains a few arms who could be great values amongst what they have. But losing Yates kinda ticks me off! It was a PERFECT situation. Patient, patient, patient, trusting, trusting, trusting...know the method of madness that is the off-season of MLB and how well this FO has done...but patience and trust are being challenged right now.

A very well thought out and well researched arguement that I want to believe in. I WANT to believe in Quintana based on previous years of watching him, his IP, and his final results before joining the Cubs. I WANT to believe at 32yo, the same age as fellow lefty Paxton but with a better IP and health history, he has life left to make him a potential steal in a new environment. I think Johnson is a tremendous pitching coach. But in the article you reference many negatives from arm slot to pitch mix to virtually abandoning a slider/cutter he had previously. At what point do we dismiss the bandbox of Wrigly Field and the Cubs poor handling of his abilities and repertoire and just wonder if the last 3 seasons are reality vs fixable issues? I threw away my crystal and magic 8 ball years ago because they never seemed to work right. LOL I understand the arguement here that he could be a steal. But it also sounds like he's been a bit of a mess for 3yrs now. Just how good of a janitor is Johnson to clean up that mess? I WANT this to be a signing and have something close to the old Quintana. And the FO and Johnson are way smarter than I am. But I'm just not sure this would be the mountain I would choose to climb from the outside looking in. Personally, beyond Bauer, I don't feel the market is as vacant as many subscribe to. I think there are a few really nice 3/4 options available to raise the staff beyond the trade market. (Which remains a possibility). Quintana is absolutely one of those possibilities, despite the obvious question marks. And while I can't wait for a couple young arms to rise up soon, I have to ask, is "fixing" Quintana a better option than Odorizzi returning?

In that picture, man does he look almost exactly like a younger version if his dad! The Twins have always loved to promote from within and utilize former players for anything from coaches to instructors, to even radio and TV personalities. While not knowing to what degree other organizations do the same the Twins have to be amongst the most aggressive in this area. And I have always applauded such moves. And our current FO has maintained this "tradition" that began decades before they were placed in charge. But this FO also does things very differently than they were done in previous regimes. So any calls of nepotism would be grossly misplaced. Toby is where he is because of who he is and his hard work and knowledge. He's not where he because he was a journeyman infielder with the team or because of any favor to his father. Funny story, that I may have repeated some years ago, but several years ago when Toby was still a young milb infielder within the system, he called up Ron one night to ask him how to hit the low and outside slider. Ron's reported response was, "I'm going to hang up now. Think about what you just asked." Toby called back the next day to state, "You don't swing at it." LOL My favorite story for both men! Obviously Toby has learned a lot since those days.

1] DH: I wouldn't be disappointed in Ozuna, but I really don't like the 4yr commitment. Part of the reason I like Cruz is the short term investment while Krilloff, Rooker and Larnach get their feet wet. No Cruz? I like Brantley for 2yrs because he HITS, gets OB, has 20 HR and 40 Dbls power and can play a legitimate OF. He could hit 1-3 in this lineup and be very valuable. 2] SP: I like Paxton. I like that he's been very good when healthy. I like that he's LH. I like Odorizzi better. Still can't understand what's so terrible about a really good and sometimes great #3/4 SP even if he is only good for 5-6 IP. I also think there's going to be a TON of low cost fliers available late looking for an opportunity. Choose the right flier and you might find a #5 steal. 3] INF: With 3 excellent choices as a new SS, I don't see a trade for one. The question simply is, do the Twins want to make this move? If they do, then make your choice, shuffle Polanco or Arraez around and then one of several cheap options that are still out there for an 11th man role. Example: Cabrera for $2-3M. If you aren't going to make the big SS move, then make your choice for the 10th man role amongst the top choices, and then STILL sign that 11th man. But make a decision! 4] BP: Rosenthal has a big arm and might be had for $7M. Yates might be as good or better and come cheaper at $5M. Soria and Clippard and a few others are still available for $2.5-3M. Just because the Twins aren't going to sign a $10M relief arm doesn't mean there isn't some quality and real value out there.

So reports are that Kluber's rehab trainer works for the Yankees, so that might have nudged him further that direction as well. Paxton yes, though I think I still prefer Odorizzi and a better track record of health, 2020 not withstanding. Everyone else here would be on my list for "cheap" 5th rotation fliers. Not so sure a couple of these guys might not end up being ST invites with incentives and early outs.

Pretty much agree 100% with you, Tom. Not surprising as I've pretty much been saying the same things for two months. Tanaka probably has only 1-5 teams he would sign with and the Yankees a clear #1 choice. Healthy and coming off solid years, I'm interested in both Richardson and Walker. Each offers up a bit of healthy "upside", especially Walker. I think it's about 50/50-60/40 the Twins sign a FA or trade for a SP. But it has to be Paxton or Odorizzi if they go the FA route. They have the $ to afford either and both are clearly the best options available. Good news is each of them are really solid pitchers. Honestly, how can anyone feel bad about either of those guys competing for the 3/4 spot with Pineda? I strongly believe the Twins will also be signing someone from your D and F list for around $3M-ish for depth and to compete for the 5th spot. Just not sure I can offer up a best option list. But there's going to be a lot of guys who want to play and will be looking for work in the next few weeks. Might even be some milb signings with ST invites who could surprise. I also wouldn't be surprised if the "cheap" option was added first, much like Bailey last season. I'm bored to tears right now waiting for things to happen, but I'm still kind of excited about the options available.

Too SSS to suggest he has a career path of anything close to dominance in any way. BUT, in that SSS, he has also shown tremendous control and fortitude. So far, be has done everything he could possibly do to show he could have a great career as a middle reliever. And that is a good thing! IF he did find a decent 3rd pitch, it could move him forward to a role as part of a late inning option. I've seen enough of him thus far to pen him in as part of the 2021 bullpen. He is not Alcala or the potential of Corina at this point, both of whom I think the Twins have faith in, but he doesn't have to be. I've seen, thus far, all I have to see that he can be a quality middle relief option who gets the job done. I think Rocco and the FO feels the same. Now, some sort of change via a cutter or something else developed, he could take a step forward.

Appreciate the sentiment Ash. But the RP is filled with a number of intriguing options. The SP options are Bauer...however you feel about him...and a TON of interesting options that don't excite, but have value. Does not taking a $10M-ish flier mean they are going cheap? (And I've been in for $8-10M as a shot for some time on Kluber). Or does it mean they think Oddo, Walker, Richardson, etc, as good and safe an option? Or are they really looking at trade options similar to the moves they have made for Odorizzi and Maeda the last 2 yrs?