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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Stock Watch: 3 Rising Twins Prospects
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Totally get your concern! The BA and SO numbers aren't good. But the BB and OB% and power numbers and OPS are impressive for an 18yo getting his first taste or stateside pro ball. It's those numbers that indicate he has an eye and approach that gives real promise.- 7 replies
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- jose miranda
- louie varland
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Stock Watch: 3 Rising Twins Prospects
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Obviously it would be silly to pick guys like Steer or Julien who are just getting their careers started. But there are two guys I ALMOST want to add to this list. Jordan Gore completed his transition to the mound as a RP and had a pretty great 2021. Yunior Severino seemed to take a step forward last season, especially after his promotion to CR. Gore is "old enough" and newly transitioned he will hopefully go undrafted if there is a rule 5 this year. And Severino is "young enough" and still unproven enough to also, hopefully, also go undrafted. I can't include them in the same category as the other 3, but I was impressed by the development of both.- 7 replies
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- jose miranda
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Once again, we are the same page in most everything. As I just rambled on about regarding Rortvedt, I wish he was AJ part 2. I see him as a cross of Butera and Castro. And if I'm right, that makes him an excellent #2 and platoon partner with Jeffers for the future. Again, I just hope he gets most of 2022 at St Paul to work on his bat and his power because the defense is already there. Agree also with Garver getting time at DH because I think there's enough offense/depth to NOT have a full time DH. Arraez, Donaldson, Miranda, Sano, Garver, we don't need a full time DH. I'm higher on Gordon than you are though. Once again, the kid needed to add a title weight/muscle vs losing what he had and now have to gain that back. I felt like I was watching him wearing his father's uniform as a 16yo last year. Someone please feed this kid some massive protein and get him in a gym! But his history has always been one of learning and adapting to each level. I expect at least a slightly better hitter in 2022. I love his speed and base running. He's OK/solid at 6 spots defensively. I DO AGREE that his time with the Twins might be limited due to Arraez, Steer and Julien already present and maybe a year away. We also agree on Celestino, though again hopefully he gets a couple months of AAA to continue his development. Larnach probably needs the same. Wallner probably needs a full year before he's ready. And Martin? He's going to be our LF, and soon. He will get over his hand/wrist issue that plagued him some last year, and he will make adjustments on his power potential, and he will be able to also play CF and cover 2B and 3B and MAYBE even some SS as a full time player who has great versatility as needed. But just being honest, he needs some time. It's pretty tough to go from college to not playing for a year, going straight to AA with a nagging injury, and then straight to MLB. I'm 100% OK if he needs a full season to adjust and ramp up and get himself right.
- 55 replies
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- nick gordon
- gilberto celestino
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You are not incorrect. But honestly, take a moment to look at his milb numbers year to year. He was young at every level, promoted fairly aggressively, and showed gradual but real improvement year to year. And his OB will show he wasn't exactly an automatic out. And there's power still residing within him. 21yo at AA and 23yo in 2021. I'm not saying he's another AJ...though I wish he was...but if you look at age and development, you might be surprised.
- 55 replies
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- nick gordon
- gilberto celestino
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At some point all 3 of these guys are going to be and contribute, even assuming/hoping Buxton escapes bad injury as is good for 120+ games. (He's not the only OF that could end up hurt at some point after all). Celestino's floor, IMO, is that of a valuable and versatile 4th OF who provides a bit of everything. His ceiling is a solid/quality starting OF who again provides a bit of everything. The question is just how well and consistently he hits, gets OB and how much pop/power he develops. I think he's got a nice future either way. Hopefully he's not needed for a couple of months so he can continue the groove he had to end 2021 at AAA. I think Rortvedt is being understood a bit as a hitter, and I hope I'm correct on that. He's never been old for any level he's played at and he has shown some growth as a batter and some gradual improvement at each level. He's had some poor BA performances and some decent ones. In 2019 he got half a season at AA and was OK at .239/.332/.355/.687. Acceptable for a young 21yo, defense first catcher, but not exactly anything to salivate over. But still, only 21yo at AA. Obviously he missed 2020. As a 23yo he was forced to play more, and early than probably expected, at the ML level due to Garver's surgery. I think it speaks to the Twins belief in him they passed over the veteran Telis in favor of him. His numbers at AAA were just fine for a young player getting his first sampling of that level. I have no clue how good of a hitter he may become, or how much XB power he might develop despite being a strong and well built young man, but he's shown enough improvement level to level in his milb career to believe he isn't done growing yet. I think he's going to be better than just a defensive catcher wit some pop who only hits .190. Even if he only becomes a .225-.230ish hitter with defense and power he can be a valuable piece. I am hoping for a bit more, but I'd take that kind of production from my #2 catcher. Like Celestino, the best scenario for him is ML health and he can sit at St Paul most of the year and just work on his bat and gain additional experience, filling in when necessary. Barring a poor ST I think Gordon is a lock for opening day. No need to rehash missing 2020 entirely due to covid and the weight/strength loss that he couldn't afford. While never a great hitter or OB guy at any level, he seldom embarrassed himself and showed improvement at every level he's played at. Despite looking like he was in a uniform a size too large with the Twins in 2021 he again didn't embarrass himself despite pedestrian numbers. His bat is quick enough to turn on and drive a pitch once in a while. If he gains weight/strength back and gains a little more plateawareness, wch has been his previous MO, he might actually be a fairly decent hitter for the super-utility role it looks like his destination will be. And there is real worth in that despite disappointment in his initial draft status. I love his speed when on base and was completely surprised at how well he learned CF/OF on the fly, despite some bumps in the road. He and Kepler can both provide some backup CF play for a Buxton day off provided it's not extended. That could mean an extra bat is kept. And I'd like to add my own #4 to this list. I've said before and say again, I think people may be sleeping on Strotman because he's not 23yo and pitched poorly after coming over in the TB trade. I remind again that he was rated above Ryan before his TJ surgery in the Ray's system. Healthy again, post the lost 2020 season, he bypassed AA and went straight to AAA where he posted fine numbers across the board except for higher BB rates. Not sure that should be a surprise considering the layoff, the jump, and the general belief that touch/control comes later than velocity after TJ. As to his poor performance at St Paul? He says he was trying too hard. Maybe. But maybe it was that, the transition, plus running out of gas. He has the frame and consistent mid 90's velocity, a few solid secondary offerings, and has reported he's working on a 5th possible offering to add or replace something else in his repertoire. I wouldn't be shocked if he's in the rotation at any point in 2022 and shows potential there. I think the "bullpen option" is very premature at this point and is a possibility for almost ANY young arm.
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- nick gordon
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VIDEO: Reacting To Starting Pitching Trade Ideas
DocBauer replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I have the exact same Mauer jersey hanging in my basement with all my other Twins, Vikings, and Husker memorabilia. I've only worn the jersey a couple of times as it's expensive and I have a bad habit of spilling stuff when I wear white. It's like a curse! LOL. My X bought it for me and reminded me of my weird habit of wearing white, so it's been hanging since I wore it at KC a few years ago. And man do I miss the pinstripes! We could regret it, but I think any trade of Cantarino could end up as a mistake. Duran is slightly behind my belief in Canterino. I'd really like to see the Twins "baby" those 2 arms for 2022 rather than give them up too early. You have to give something up to get something. And I don't know exactly what that is right now. I think the Brewer's trade is nuts for a 5th SP. And I'm not crazy about trading for anyone who is under control for only 1 or 2yrs, unless the FO realistically thinks they will do a re- sign. I am SO HOPING for another Oddo or Maeda out of the hat trade! -
2I honestly hadn't heard our FO was IN on a number of trades pre lockout until just recently, though I've been expecting one for months now. And if the Twins really expect to be competitive in 2022, then SOMEONE HAS to be added. You can't just audition the prospects and expect to be competitive. (I still think they blew the opportunity to add JUST ONE GUY on a 3-4yr deal that wouldn't blow up anything! But water under the bridge at this point). I still wouldn't be surprised to see Pineda, Kikuchi or maybe Tyler Anderson brought in on a cheap deal. I just don't think this FO really believes Bundy is some sort of great steal. And when you have a full 162G season, hopefully, you will have many opportunities to audition the prospects as we all know you will need 8-9SP throughout the season. Especially after limited IP for prospects in 2021, time is needed, but opportunity WILL BE THERE. Adding 2 arms will NOT prevent the young arms from getting their feet wet and getting opportunity. I'd really like to see, and expect, a quality, experienced RHRP to add to the back end of the pen. There is opportunity and need and payroll room to do so. That's 3 of 5 spots to fill. The remaining hole is SS. I absolutely agree Polanco at SS is not ideal. He's a perfect fit at 2B and a potential GG winner there. But while I want to keep him at 2B, he's just not going butcher some make him out to be at SS. He's OK/decent there. And if his ankles are OK...which they appear to be...I don't see how his ankles are any less stressed at SS than 2B. In fact, he probably twists and turns his ankles more at 2B than SS. Now, I don't want him to be the full time SS on a 1yr fill-in, but it's not some sky is falling scenario. I think the potential of the lineup is such an offensive hole at SS is acceptable, even though I don't want that. Iglesias has the bat, and past defensive rep, to be a great 1yr fill-in. I know we don't want to say this, but Simmons is a potential bounceback option who only has to hit to his career numbers to be an asset. I have come around that the Twins need to make a trade with the Cardinals for DeJong. Not a great hitter, but acceptable for a great glove SS. He has some power for the spot. My u derstanding is he's going to make over $6M as a reserve as he's been replaced by their young kid who's name escapes me at the moment. I'm thinking he comes pretty cheap for a power bat or A pitcher. I wouldn't be opposed to a 4th OF who can maybe play CF. But do we need that? Maybe. But Kepler plays a good CF. Gordon can play a decent CF based on what we saw while learning the position on the fly. Celesino could be fully ready by mid season. I'm not 100% sold we need an OF, but I wouldn't object if it happened.
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2022 Prospect Previews: Christian Encarnacion-Strand
DocBauer replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I never like to compare prospects to proven players directly, but I've never been afraid to as a reference point or potential comp. And in this case, I'm going to stick within the Twins organization, even though it wouldn't be hard to look elsewhere as well. Gaettit was, IIRC, a SS when drafted but placed at 3B. He wasn't a bad athlete and had a strong arm, but hands of stone initially. Koskie was probably an even better athlete, but larger, and considered potentially too large and stiff to remain at 3B. Both turned out to be outstanding defensive 3B with time, work, and experience. I'm going to accept CES's arm ...and hands as legitimate 55 rankings. That tells me he sticks at 3B, and should be kept there as long as possible, to work on his defense. The most important thing he can do defensively...even if he has questionable range...is catch what he gets to and use that arm. Good positioning can help some, and a strong arm can help cover limited range to a degree as well. Offensively he surprised me as a rookie in Ft Myers which can be a tough place to hit at times. (See Sabato, but he also pretty much had a year off). I almost wonder if he should have been pushed to Cedar Rapids, but hard to argue a rookie, even a college rookie, not getting half a season at A- to begin his career. The power is real. He seems to have a solid hit tool and makes some decent contact despite the SO numbers. Right or wrong, my initial thought is a smaller and potentially better defensive version of Sano. I don't see how that would be a bad thing at all. Now, it's very possible Miranda could block him at 3B, but that's down the road and not a concern at this time. You need to draft bats as well as pitchers and SS. I think he's a potentially exciting 4th rounder with some defensive aptitude. I don't think he's JUST some 1B/DH bat. I'm a little unsure about the 2020 draft right now, even though there's some interesting guys there who have been limited so far, but I'm pretty excited about 2019 and 2021. -
The Twins Have Failed Josh Donaldson
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've thought about the title and general intent of this OP for a little while now before commenting. My answer is NO, the Twins haven't let Donaldson down any more than he let them down in 2020. It's still a team game, injuries and sh*t happens, and as stated above me previously, 1 guy doesn't make an entire season one way or another. (Granted, 1 guy can make a difference). In the 2020 season the Twins were on a 100 win pace, adjusted, for the second consecutive year before a brief poor streak. I believe they ended on an adjusted 96 win equivalent. So Donaldson "letting the team down" is as arbitrary as the Twins letting him down in 2021. In other words, a healthy Donaldson in 2020 might have increased the win total slightly. He might have had a key hit in the playoffs and things MIGHT have turned out differently. But as a whole, the Twins did just fine without him for the collective that was the 2020 season. Fast forward, or rewind, to 2021 with revisionist 20/20 vision. I can't wait to stop re-visting 2021 and I'm even making MYSELF cringe doing so, but here we go again. A healthy Maeda may have changed the entire construct of 2021, and was MONEY in ST before his elbow gave out once the season started. If Happ just pitches the whole season on his 1yr like he has most of his career, like he did his first few games, close to what he did in 2020, we're 4 deep in the rotation. And in THEORY, we would have bought time for the development for our young pitchers coming up. If a healthy Shoemaker...a cheap flier intended to bridge the gap only...OR a healthy Dobnak simply performs as expected, we're 5 deep. If Colome pitches just like his normal self, not even like his career 2020, we get off to a better start. If Duffey and Rogers don't get off to sow starts, we are better. If, if, if....the entire 2021 season is a season of injuries and poor performance, or at least poor initial performance, the likes I'm not sure I've ever seen! IF those IF'S were the reality and not what really happened, then Berrios and Cruz are never traded. And who knows how many games the Twins win and what happens in the playoffs. Look at Atlanta. They had a lot of bad "if's" but some very good/lucky "if's" that lead them to a WS very reminiscent of the 1987 Twins. Best laid plans sometimes just don't work out. Sh*t happens. Think the Dodgers over the past 5-6yrs or so despite 2020 and their payroll and talent. (Not even going to address the new talent brought in to the Twins system recently BECAUSE of what happened that could open the next window. Different discussion). So neither party here has let the other down. And while Donaldson IS a "red ass" and I don't always like some of what he says and does, he IS a leader on this team, though in a different way than Cruz was. But like Cruz, from day one when he was in ST, players have been flocking to him to pick his brain, watch him, ask questions, and he's been happy to offer up his perspective and experience. There is no measurement for that, but experience and leadership are real. I don't know if trading Donaldson is a possibility or not. For HIS sake, a trade to a contending team could be a blessing in the twilight of his career for another shot. And I don't belive he, his agent, or anyone else would hold it against the Twins to do so mid contract at this point. But I'm really uncertain as to not only what the Twins might receive in players/prospects back, much less how much salary relief they might actually receive as they'd probably have to kick in some $ to get the deal done. But does that really help the Twins in2022? And how much? The OP shows how good his numbers were, and could have been better with just a little more luck. And if you don't believe at least a little bit in luck regarding baseball then you either haven't been watching the game close enough, or long enough, or haven't seen Bull Durham, LOL. I'm OK if a trade is available and makes sense. But Donaldson is still a great and productive hitter who is primed to repeat his 2021 usage between 3B and DH to keep him fresh. And he's still a fine 3B defensively, though his range has slipped. And there are young options in Arraez and Miranda to fill in and get their time in. I think the Twins will be better off keeping him. Things could change come mid season trade options and the play of Arrzez and Miranda, etc. So neither side has let the other down. Sh*t happens. And maybe that should have been the byline. -
I had actually forgotten Larnach had only 13AB at St Paul before his promotion. I think he just wasn't prepared as of then once pitchers made adjustments. I know each step up the ladder is tougher than the level before, and MLB is the hardest. But Larnach hit in college...it was the power that took a little while to develop...and he's hit so far in his milb career. So I'm still all in on him being a quality ML hitter once he acclimates and makes somes adjustments. My only concern, and it's minor, is that he didn't finish strong at AAA. But then again, he also became injured. As for his defense, my understanding when he was drafted was that he had plenty of arm for RF. I believe part of the reason he played RF when Kirilloff was in LF was he has the stronger arm of the two. He won't be Kepler, but I think he has enough ability to play the spot we'll enough. I do think AK is just fine in the OF. And I believe he was going to have a solid year until he hurt his wrist. But I think he will slide to 1B eventually, if not soon, because he just looks so natural there and there are other options for the OF corners. That includes the mentioned Martin. Celestino was brought up because there was literally no-one else to play CF due to all the injuries. Remember, even Refsnyder got hurt after Buxton, and after Kepler. He WAS healthy and finished AAA strong. I think Larnach is going to be fine. I just don't know if he's going to be ready day 1 for a job, of he's going to take a few weeks, or a couple months before getting his next opportunity.
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I was legitimately impressed by the MLBPA when they pulled back and made concessions in order to facilitate negotiations. I was appalled by the counter offers from the owners. Additionally, I think it's about time for the union to look out for the young and mid-tier players with a raise in salaries. Again, the counter from ownership just seemed ridiculous and counter productive to me. I have issues with both sides, and have in past negotiations. But I'm amazed at how unintelligent a billionaire business owner can be. Just feels like they are OK with killing the sport instead of nourishing its growth. Monfort's comment is so egregious I can't even laugh at it.
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I am with ownership on a slight and gradual increase. The financial disparity is real in MLB and doesn't have to be increased. There should also be a greater and more even revenue sharing amongst the lower revenue teams for greater competitive balance. That's good for the growth of the game. The problem is the owners have to clean up their own dysfunctional, collective house and force those teams to actually spend that revenue share money. And that's where some sort of floor, or floating floor based on revenues or a 2-3 window for a rebuilding team, etc, can be put in to affect. I completely object said floor FORCES teams to add players and salaries just to meet said threshold. Teams wouldn't be FORCED to sign player 'X' just to meet that floor unless they were just bad at doing their jobs. (But that's also why a floating floor might be in place for a team wanting to rebuild). It allows those lower market teams to add an arm in the rotationnor pen, or even a good bench player or two, to just put a better product on the field, even while in a rebuild cycle waiting for prospects. Further, it gives them more flexibility to retain their own players vs having to trade them or let them walk. If you are a lower market team who has money handed to you for your payroll to add and keep and be more competitive and you can't figure out what to do with those extra millions, then your problem is how your organization is run.
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Chpettit19 stole my thunder and basically said everything I was going to say. And Maeda and Oddo have to be part of the discussion topic. Those were very good moves. I think context is very important. And while I'm repeating what's already been stated, Happ and Shoemaker...at the time of their signins...were very sound decisions. As was Colome. We have to remember Happ has had a very solid career and was coming off a very good year. Ditto Colome. Shoemaker was a cheap flier with a track record of being good when healthy. He was supposed to be depth and a fill-in option. Where I think the FO has missed the mark is not firmly engaging Berrios earlier for an extension. Now, we don't know all the details or how hard they tried, to just be real. Maybe they were just rebuffed by Berrios despite honest attempts. I also think the one area they need to improve is to target one or two guys they really like and jump in quickly. Their patient strategy has paid some very nice dividends, especially as they have worked so hard to rebuild the entire system from the bottom up, and not just in regard to prospects, but in practice and approach. But there's nothing wrong with identifying someone you like and think fits a real need and just go get them, THEN sit back and see how the market plays out.
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Agree on the incentive for some teams to not spend and just pocket their revenue share money. And that's an absolute farce. And that's one if my biggest grudges against ownership right now. The revenue sharing should INCREASE and not DECREASE in order to spread the wealthy and allow for better opportunity for competitive balance. But that's why it's so important to have some kind of financial floor...or floating floor if they simply must...in order to force those teams to actually spend. And again, while I have problems with both sides in these negotiations, it's kind of hard to side with the owners when they don't seem to even have their own collective house in order.
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What if These Twins Worked Out?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Going to 3rd the idea Kepler shouldn't be on the list. He hasn't become what I thought and hoped he would be, but he's still a solid ballplayer and valuable in many respects. He's young enough where I keep wondering if a slight adjustment here or there might help him take another step and be closer to the 2019 version we were so excited about. Hoping that happens. But I think he's better served hitting lower in the order instead of at the top. Would be nice if he could sit once in a while against LH pitching. Benson, Stewart and Jay are already mentioned but definitely in my group of disappointments. I thought Jay would at least be a quality BP piece. I don't want to list Thorpe as he's still with the Twins and there's still hope he finds a role. But right now, very disappointed.- 25 replies
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2022 Prospect Previews: Cade Povich
DocBauer replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Next to Petty, Povich is my most intriguing early prospect. (And just because he's a Husker, lol). I could easily see him at 205-210lbs in a year or so and throwing consistently and maintaining 95-ish velocity to go along with his secondary stuff and great control. I think he's a fast riser with some real potential. -
Agree with Roger that it's a lot easier to side with the players if they were more interested in competitive pay across the board and a more level playing field for all teams. The proposals I've seen from them seem to do nothing but allow large market teams to keep more money and raise their payroll even higher with no penalty. How does this help the average team, average player or baseball overall? I'm not on the owners side and have more than a few issues with them on regard to more even revenue sharing and forcing small markets to actually spend it vs pocketing it, etc. In regard to the HOF, I believe I'm correct on saying that has nothing to do with MLB. (Unless they're being covert behind the scenes). The voting in or out is up the baseball writers and not MLB. It's my understanding something like 59 new voters have been added over the past 3yrs and both Bonds and Clemmons saw an increase in votes. Eventually they will get in. But it's the HOF and voters that are keeping them out.
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If Selig Is In, They Should All Get In
DocBauer replied to Dave Overlund's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Here in Omaha, I'm blessed with reporters/radio hosts that are smart, intelligent and award winning. What that means is they offer up ideas at times I hadn't thought of, OR, had to be reminded of. From a personal perspective, I don't like cheating, whatever any laws might state. But the simple truth is that Bonds and Clemmons were probably HOF players even before enhancement their last few years. And Cooperstown is not about "good guys", it's a museum about baseball that is not affiliated with MLB. Eventually, these guys will be included. And they should be. They're part of history, even if they cheated for their last few years. And while I don't believe you need something as dramatic as a "hall of shame", I think it's OK to put a giant * next to their name explaining their numbers and inducton. -
First, I want to be very clear I haven't liked every move the FO has made, or not made, in their tenure. Period! I also want to state very clearly that I understand, appreciate, and even agree with "limited" moves that could have been made by the FO coming off tremendous 20219 and 2020 seasons. Even a single, significant pitching acquisition might have made a difference that would have been tangible. I get the frustration, I really do, as I'm about as devout a Twins fan as you will find, and have been for over 40+ years. Maybe my approach is just different than others, but as a fan my goal is NOT to see my team win a WS every year. First of all, just being realistic and not living in a fantasy land, that's impossible for ANY team in ANY sport, even for the biggest market teams. What you CAN TRY TO DO, best you are able, is put together a competitive team to try and win, reach the playoffs, and see what happens. And while that goal is much easier for the Yankees, Dodgers, etc, than teams like the Twins, it doesn't mean you can't TRY for viability and sustainability knowing full well some years are just not going to be your year. When you read the entire quote as offered by Falvey, nothing he says is wrong or inaccurate in any way. He speaks not only year to year, but also looking down the road. What he doesn't say but clearly implies is; the Twins don't believe in a 1yr window to blow up the payroll and the system through FA and trades for that singular year of hope. They clearly believe in a re-build of the system from the ground floor up and I think we've seen massive and even impressive changes along those lines. They believe in building a structure that allows a team to be competitive yearly...as much as possible...adding here and there when a window seems open...but understanding that not every year is going to have a large window. They also, clearly, don't believe in or want to take a "tank" approach to a re-build. And I like that approach! Now, we can easily agree to disagree in an "all in" 1yr approach. And that's fine. I understand and appreciate that approach. I'm just not personally in favor of blowing it up, waiting through a series of non-compeitive years, rebuild best you can, sign some expensive FA, trade young talent to vacate your system for additional pieces,and hope you win before starting all over again. I want my team to have a great system in place, develop young talent to add/replace on my roster, make some smart trades where and when applicable, and make a strong FA move or two when a window is open. I DO believe that being patient can be smart and advantageous in many ways. But I also think our current FO needs to adjust and BE AGGRESSIVE year to year with an EARLY move that can make a difference. It's very easy, IMO, to look back at each of these seasons and pick apart what worked and didn't work. It's also very easy to second guess what was done and not done at the time. And believe me, I've done that myself. To this moment, I have no real issue with how the FO handled 2021 INITIALLY. I felt really good with Happ as a 1yr 4th SP whose success previously could have seen him jump Pineda as the #3. I had no problem with Shoemaker as a cheap #5 option flier, who has had a limited career as being quite good when healthy, to compete with Dobnak and everyone else to at least begin the season. Hope was that a couple arms, besides the surprising Ober, would make an appearance later in the year. I was excited for Simmons as an outstanding SS with an OK bat to solidify the defense and help the staff. I wanted to spend a little more and keep May over adding Colome, but Colome had been very good and was coming off probably his career year. Again, 20/20 hindsight is different than how the plan was laid out. I want to be very clear I am NOT impressed by what the FO has done this current off-season. Even if they were indeed surprised by how quickly things transpired, they are smart enough and experienced enough to have been able to navigate the deep end of the pool, jump in, and make at least ONE significant FA SP signing to offer greater viability to the staff and any sort of competitive opportunity in 2022. I had hoped for a pair of signings in the 3-4yr range that wouldn't break the bank. I felt doing so would STILL allow the promotion and audition of at least a handful of arms through a full season. So I'm a little frustrated/angry and confused by their approach at this point. Unless they are planning on trading young talent for SP to add...which I find unlikely as they've worked so hard to build up the system for future viability and competition sake...I think the plan all along was to have a couple veteran arms to lead the way and roll through the collection of young arms on hand while having a quality lineup and pen. While I am absolutely not saying the Twins are any sort of contender at this point, I can see this approach potentially leading to an 88-92 win team who would at least have a chance to reach the playoffs. And history has shown...'87 Twins and '21 Braves as a couple examples...that anything could happen. Understand, I have no hopes for that kind of surprise at this moment. BUT, getting back to the original topic, is it too late to make changes? I say no, as long as the lockout doesn't extend too far. We're still 3 weeks from ST and at least they are talking. After that, yes, it will be a frenzy. I hope the FO is prepared to make a couple signings that are at least "decent" in nature and a trade or two that make sense. The one potential "big blow" to future plans is a prolonged interruption that keeps young guys on the 40 man away from the field. And we can never forget that we've had late surprises before. But let's play in Rod Serling's Zone for a moment. There are a few really interesting RP options available to add to the pen to augment a healthy Rogers and company, with a plethora of options to roll through on the front side, to have a quality bullpen. DeJong could be had from the Cardinals on a potentially cheap trade to solidify SS for the sort term, pun only slightly intended. Assuming no major move to sign Rodon, there could be another Maeda/Odorizzi deal to add a solid SP to help lead the staff. They could also add someone like Pineda, or Kikuchi to the staff via FA. Maybe both. One provides some stability and one offers that and some upside still. And there will still be opportunity for the kids. And at least you're offering up what looks like a viable ML rotation. Sorry I'm on a soapbox here, I just felt there was a lot to address. I don't think the FO is done. I believe we will see at least one FA SP and maybe two, barring a trade.. I believe we will see a solid RHRP signed. There wil be someone added to SS so Planco can stick at 2B. I think there is a good chance a 4th OF could be signed, and the potential for a surprise there, but banking on it. There's still time to make additions, whether surprising or OK. But I like the lineup, like the potential of the pen with an addition, and LOVE the idea of seeing ALL the young arms coming up. But somewhere, somehow, there needs to be a veteran arm or two added to this staff.
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3 Twins Pitching Prospects Destined for the Bullpen
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Vallimont. And maybe this year. And maybe with the Twins the 2nd half.- 10 replies
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Ranking the Twins Top Pitching Prospects by ETA
DocBauer replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Sorry, I could end up very wrong, but I think people are really sleeping on Strotman. He's got the frame and velocity and reportedly some solid secondary pitches. He seems to be very bright. A couple of seasons ago he was ranked above Ryan before his TJ. Post surgery, he bypassed AA and was promoted straight to AAA after missing 2020 like so many. But for some reason, he keeps getting viewed as some sort of "throw in" with the Cruz trade. Let's take a moment to look at his AAA stats before the trade: 7-2/ 3.39 ERA/ 58.1 IP/ 50H/ 62K/ 33 BB/ .235 AVG/ 1.42 WHIP. Other than his BB being a bit high, indicating he was struggling a bit with control his first full season back after TJ, AND missing 2020, those are some quality numbers. And his numbers at St Paul were disappointing to say the least. And in an interview with Seth recently he talked about maybe trying too hard to make a impression. Maybe. Good for him to not just make excuses, but there's also the real possibility he was running out of gas after missing so much time, PLUS adjusting and moving to a new organization. IF he was an original Twins prospect, and then had an injury like Winder and Duran, etc, and only flashed his 1st half numbers, I think most most of us would be clamoring for him as one of the 1st up options. Recency bias to end 2021 should not be used against Strotman. I think he could be a real surprise in 2022.- 15 replies
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Which prospect group are you most intrigued by?
DocBauer replied to wsnydes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
P.S. Butterscotch and caramel are BOTH outstanding. They might be even better when mixed with chocolate at times. So I'm not sure there is a winner there. Does it matter considering how good each is? -
Which prospect group are you most intrigued by?
DocBauer replied to wsnydes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I don't think there's any question the young pitching group is the most interesting, and for all the obvious reasons. A couple will be traded, a couple will wash out, a couple will end up in the pen, (and there are a couple interesting RP who aren't exactly TOP prospects by the very nature of being RP), and at least a couple will make it as solid to excellent rotation pieces. I do not, and will not, predict anyone for ACE status. With little exception, an ACE type SP develops over a few years, they aren't just drafted and promoted. And it's virtually impossible to speculate who on any list MIGHT become such, including us current prospect list. But ignoring some of the recent draftees who hold potential, it's not hard to look at Ryan, Ober, Duran, Winder, Balazovic and Canterino as a collection of guys who can be in the solid to very good category, or beyond with hope. But if we want to expand on this idea a little bit, should we consider breaking down the option of "position player" ? FWIW, and if anyone wants to follow suite, I'd break down my personal interest as such, in reverse order: 3] CATCHER: Do we still consider Jeffers and/or Rortvedt as prospects? Considering age and experience, I think we might, especially in regard to Rortvedt. Beyond them is a collection of lower level guys who have some interesting potential but there is nobody to really single out. 2] OUTFIELD: Kirilloff, Larnach, Celestino, Wallner at the upper levels and Rodriguez, Urbina and Rosario at the lower levels allow for a great combination of immediate help and hope and some intriguing future options. 1] INFIELD: To me, this is the #2 category of interest for me. (And yes, Kirilloff could be included here as well). I'm interested and excited to varying degrees about this position. Does Gordon turn out to be a speedy, OK hitter with some pop who can play almost anywhere as a fill-in? He might. Martin could end up at 2B...doubt it with Polanco...maybe 3B...but we have Miranda, MIGHT SURPRISE and sow he can actually be a SS, but might find his home at LF as a "do everything well" player at the top of order for years who can cover CF and even cover the infield. He might also turn out to be a younger and better "play everywhere" super utility player similar to Marwin Gonzalez. Lewis has the arm and athleticism, IMO, to be a MLB SS. Having to polish his play on standard plays, IMO, just comes with time and repetition. He needs to be healthy, play, develop, and make the bat and all that talent work. Oh, and then there's Miranda who could be the 3B for the next 10yrs, potentially, and the Twins need to find rom for him NOW. Beyond these options are Steer, and slightly behind him, Julien. Steer could be a super utility fielder, if not a starter, as early as the end of 2022. He can also play at least a little SS. Julien is similar, but with a slightly different profile, who could be ready in 2023 at some point. BTW, Severino could be one of the biggest risers in the entire system come the end of 2022. So YES, pitching ranks as a clear #1 interest/intrigue point. But if you want to break down the "rest" of interest, INFIELD is #2 for me. -
2022 Prospect Previews: Noah Miller
DocBauer replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I think he's going to be a relatively slow riser making steady yearly progress. He sure sounds like a good all around athlete with the ability to stick at SS. I think the key for him will be adding some muscle/power to his bat without outgrowing the position physically.- 12 replies
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A great article Matt, and well thought out and debated. But I think we have to define what is meant by "career" in this debate. Even if we ignore the greater longevity of Carew...and mnfireman did an interesting 12yr breakdown between the two...his numbers are just better than Puckett's. And then you factor in similar accolades PLUS the longevity and I'd have to say Carew was better. But if we talk about "career" as reaching the mountain top in the sport and individual accomplishment...despite it still being a team game...then Puckett had the better career as he reached and won the WS twice. So in that sense he had the better "career" by reaching that pinnacle. They are both outstanding ballplayers to say the least.