DocBauer

Seth, you nailed pretty much what I was going to say. Again, my only "side" is with baseball and what is best for it. I think BOTH sides are at fault here; the players to re-capture what they lost the last time AND gain more, and the owners for being stubborn, short-sighted, and yes, even greedy. I offered up an opinion a couple weeks ago that the union offered up proposals that would NEVER fly but did so deliberatly in an attempt to then lower demands. I don't like it, but I get it. But I've also been of the opinion, over and over again, that the owners were being stubborn and short-sighted. On the surface at least, as an outsider looking in, without HOURS of reading in to every detail, I have to admit that the owners last proposal does make sense to me. The "minimum salary" is a HUGE increase with further increases. I recognize that the pre-aritration pool of money is new, and not as much as the union asked for initially. Am I wrong? Isn't this a new pool of funds? If so, it's even more money to be spread out. Now I don't understand or pretend to understand all the parameters of the dispersal of said funds. I DO object if those funds go to a select few, regardless of who the agent is. I would be on ownerships side if those additional funds were broad based. I see real relevance to eliminating a draft pick for FA signings. And I see real value to a draft of international players for the good of the game. Playoff money benefits the owners, but also creates additional money for the players, yes? And weren't a few concessions made by the owners in regard to service time and FA status? I'm no expert, but doesn't this all sound pretty good for the players? I'm not crazy about the "lottery" because I think it's a publicity stunt brought on by the NBA, and proven in larger roster sports like the NFL and the history of the MLB draft to not make a definitive difference. The only major stumbling block I can see is either the union is trying desperately hard to correct 10yrs of changes all at once, or the "tax cap" has to be the issue. And I don’t know if Manfred is an idiot, or a puppet...and I'm trying to be nice here, I really am...but his claims about lost revenue and the stock market are simply ridiculous. I'm just a middle class schlub when it comes to high finance and a billionaire industry. But I can appreciate making "less" money in one of my investments. But that is entirely different than actually losing money! So any idea that the penalty tax floor actually makes a major difference in competitive balance is a mediocre difference at best. But it is a starting point. And right or wrong, proven or not, I COULD see where an agent as powerful as Boras could have an affect. The counter arguement, of course, is he also represents milb talent, not just ML talent. But, those milb players also represent his "next wave" of players to reap benefits of a new CBA. So I can't but dismiss milb players vs current ML players in this accusation. IMO, Boras may be part of the problem. He may be a major part of the problem. Maybe not. Time will tell.. But I doubt few would argue he has a voice beind the scenes. While the union is right to fight for all they can get, does it happen in a single CBA? Was the offer from the owners really bad? Personally, Boras or not, I think the union blew this negotiation from the start. For the first time EVER, they should have asked for some kind of cap/ceiling with a FLOOR in addition to the changes in revenue sharing and FA and service time. They can't strike now. Holding out is the best they can do. But they could have taken a whole different approach way before this. And the owners could have also done things differently way before we got to this point.

I think Wallner has the stuff to make it and make a difference if he can maintain his current numbers. In other words, the SO are OK as long as he keeps doing everything else at the same level as he has been so far. But he's probably the only question mark here, health permitting. I want all of these guys to do well and believe all can. But the one guy that I am enamored with and want so badly to do well is Canterino.

I think Winder is more or less a given, so he doesn't qualify as a sleeper. Neither does Balazovic. But Sands is one of 2 sleepers for me, Strotman being the other. Sands has flown under the radar a bit for reasons I don't understand. All he's done is perform and perform well since being drafted. Yes the walks were a little high in 2021, but doesn't it seem that was an issue all across baseball? Feels to me the return from the lost 2020 not only affected health, but control as well. I will be surprised if Sands doesn't make an appearance at the ML level in 2022, even if it's to assist the pen. Strotman is my top sleeper. He also suffered from a rise in walks last year coming back not only from rehab but the lost 2020. The rest of his numbers looked pretty good before coming to the Twins. Again, was he running out of gad? Now, can we please just play some ball so we can actually see these kids play?

While not a conspiracy theorist, I do think members of the media have their own agendas at times. (And I'm applying this in general, as well as to both sides of this particular situation). I don't doubt the veracity of this report as everything stated seems very logical and possible. But, how is nobody else reporting this? And I'm asking honestly. Is there an agenda here by the press? Is this a story just breaking and we'll suddenly see a dam break? I have to say I find all of this very disturbing. If this is true, or mostly true: A] I believe it puts the owners in a different light despite their general tight-fisted approach. B] Players and agents should be PISSED that Boras and a small group players, reportedly his clients, would be messing with my career and livelihood for their own ends. I could be very wrong here, but reports I've read in other locations have similarly indicated that an agreement may have been surprisingly close, pending a few more important details and agreements to finalize. And now, to have everything blown up so completely? I don't believe the MLBPA has to have a complete players vote to walk away from the table as they did. IDK, something just doesn't seem right here.

I hate discussions like this, even though they are fun and interesting, because it's almost impossible to pick 4. And hell, we could even make a Rushmore based on ONLY being a Twin, or maybe a 75 % career Twin, etc. Be that as it may be...my grudging $.02. I LOVE me some Bert. He is one of the greatest SP in Twins history. And to this day I believe he should have been in the HOF way before he was. BUT...he had a lot of his career outside of wearing a Twins uniform. And despite being a Twins player, broadcaster and ambassador I'm going to have to leave him off the list. [Yuck!] Killer, Carew, and Puckett are so obvious and for so many reasons that I just stop there. At 56yo, Oliva is a Twins LEGEND that my youth remembers only for his last few years as a Twin, as a ballplayer. I absolutely know his career as a player, a coach, an instructor, and an ambassador. I've always felt he was such an amazing ballplayer and producer of amazing numbers he never should have been penalized for injuries that cut his career short. He ABSOLUTELY was deserving of being in the HOF way before he was. Mauer isn't just a good story as the "hometown kid who did good". For 6+ years it could be argued he was one of the best catchers in the history of MLB. He did some things NEVER done before in ML history before his concussions. He, and Oliva, suffer from a "well you didn't do it for 10yrs due to I jury" syndrome. But as much as I adore and respect Oliva, I think I have to place Mauer for the 4th spot for what he did while at the catcher position.

Picks to click? I'd love to select Urbina or Rodriguez as super talented young players, but I'm really looking for them to still adjust and grow and not necessarily breaking out. So I have a couple: POSITION PLAYER: 1] Severino. He started to grow in 2021. I think he's ready to take the next step. 1A] Will Holland. He's a 5th round pick who looked like a top prospect before a poor junior season but signed after 2019. He barely played when signed and then missed 2020 like everyone else. He had a mediocre 2021 at best. He could make a real jump in 2022. 3] Wander Javier. It could be easy for him to say WTH, and move on. But I don't see that with him. I think he's grown in to his body and the baseball gods are going to shine on him and he's going to be healthy. I ALMOST want him to be #1, but I can't due to history. But I have a feeling where talent, time, work, and just time/luck is going to shine on him. PITCHER: I just can't pick Hajjar because hes a 2nd round pick who hasn't debuted yet. But I have 4 guys that are PRIMED to "click". And that's a GOOD THING! 1] Canterino. If he's healthy, he's on a rocket to finish at AAA if not a ML appearance. Limited IP makes him "elgible" for this list. 2] SWR. He's been bounced around and had the whole Olympic thing disrupt his development. Unless something happens unexpectedly, he's going to be able to get good coaching, settle down, and just PITCH and develop with some stability for the 1st time in a couple years. He'll probably throw at Wichita for the full season and that's OK. He needs that. Doesn't mean he doesn't break out. 3A] Povich was a surprise to me, even as a Husker fan. I think the Twins saw control and the ability to fill out physically, and add velocity, and maintain control. But I was surprised by reports of new velocity. Early returns are more than I expected. I don't think he can be dismissed . 3B] Raya. Truth be told, I WANT to put this kid #1 on my pitcher list. He was my favorite 2020 draft choice because I just 'felt" there was "something" there besides pitching in big games and numbers. Something about his stuff and attitude reminded me of Berrios, right or wrong. I thought we drafted a HS pitcher, always a big risk, that had the stuff and makeup to succeed. I was so disappointed he didn't pitch in 2021. But then I hear how good he looked in IL and I'm starting to think he and Petty might be a great duo at Ft Myers to begin 2022. DARK HORSE: Legumina and Mooney could surprise.

100%! I could see, kinda hope, that Julian will be an even better version of him in a year or so. And I just spent time on 2 different posts speaking about the actual value of a 2B and how different teams may construct their lineup and the value of different hitters in different spots,, as well as if Arraez spent time strengthening his lower half how it might lead to better health and maybe even additional pop/power even without changing his approach. BUT, I find it a bit ironic with all that has been said, and possible trade "speculation" in regard to the A's, Arraez would seem to be a perfect Moneyball acquisition for them as PART of a deal. I'm in no hurry to move him. I think we see the same value he presents to the Twins at this time. Just interesting that he seems to be a fit if such a trade were to take place.

I just wanted to add that any work to strengthen his lower half to strengthen joints, legs, etc, could also shift his overall strength index. Simply, by building his body a bit better, he might also provide more "oomph" in his contact which could lead to more XB pop/power, without changing his swing/approach.

I think this is a great question. IMO, 2B has gone through a transformation that occurred between 15-20yrs ago at SS, and CF to a degree. I'm speaking of watching baseball since the 70's, but I think my thoughts go back decades before. When we think about 2B "back in the day", it was a defensive position for someone who couldn't stick at SS. But the game back then was more station to station and bunting, hit and run, stolen bases, etc. Of course, SS has always been a defense first position. For decades, those spots were defense, and with little exception, you had light hitters you hoped had speed, or contact ability to move runners, etc. But over time, teams began putting their best athlete more and more at SS. And I'm sure advancements in training had an affect as well. Suddenly you began to see the A-Rods, Jeter's, etc, make SS an offensive position with these tremendous athletes. But 2B became a similar version. Much like an OF bat you can't put in RF or CF, you place them in LF. Of course there are exceptions. I grew up seeing Wilfong and Randal and others playing for the Twins at 2B. But it was a LONG time between Carew and Knoblauch! And then a number of years before Dozier. And I'm NOT saying your 2B can't be good defensively, but it has evolved in to a legitimate offensive position. Polanco, Altuve and others are current examples. I believe 2B has perhaps even more value in today's game than it used to because you can place a great bat there that simply can't play SS to the level you want defensively. It's not "hiding" a bat...but it kinda is in a way. Now, what VALUE any player has on a team at ANY position is still up to the team to decide. I mentioned CF briefly before. I never saw Mays play. But I watched Griffey, Puckett and others almost re-define the position from a fast guy who could field to a guy who could hit and bring power. So what's really changed is "old fashioned" roster construction. There used to be certain precepts of how you built a lineup and where you expected your offense to come from. And I know this reference is dated, but Boggs was a leadoff hitter at 3B for Boston for years instead of being a middle of the order bat. Again a dated reference, but Downing was a simi,similar, no speed leadoff hitter for the Angels who could hit, get OB, and provide power. These were precursors for Beane and his Moneyball approach that has continued to re-shape the modern game. This is also why I've stated previously that if you have hitting and power across your lineup from WHATEVER positions, does your DH HAVE to be a power hitting RBI entity? How about a guy who sets the table? So all of this is not necessarily to pump up the value of Arraez directly, but to address your question about 2B. It's as valuable as any other lineup spot, a place where you can place a tremendous bat, but every teams lineup construction is different.

Yes. They are very different ballplayers at this point. Arraez is the better hitter, by quite a lot at this point, and the OB machine. Gordon brings a speed element we have little of, can cover SS at least so-so, and seems to play a passable CF. And I think it's dangerous to not have 2 utility types. The issue with keeping both of them is maybe not having room for Miranda until someone gets hurt.

Echoing chpettit19 that Arraez has real value and it's much easier to say "move him and we'll be just fine" and it's another thing to actually make that happen. He fills a very different skill set as a batter that this team sorely lacks. And right now, his best, eventual replacement options on the roster are probably a season away. But if moving him makes good sense to bring in a quality SP as part of a deal, I get it and am not saying no. I do question Arraez AND a pair of top 10 prospects though. If with the Twins, I would absolutely continue to work with him in LF. I e seen worse, and he has room to be better. Being able to come off the bench and play 3 spots instead of 2 as well as DH just makes him that much easier to fit in the lineup. And I'd have him batting #1, working counts, and getting OB almost every single day.

I feel the need to be less polite than I normally am in regard to Martin. Can we just let the kid play a little ball before we dismiss his ability or promote him to All Star status? Whew! The kid is a super athlete, like Lewis, and considered a TOP prospect. But virtually overnight he's gone from a potential #1 pick to the 5th pick, to missing 2020, debuting at AA and holding his own PLUS! And opinions have him lacking a position to questionable power despite a good bat and great OB ability. Some seem to think he should be in LF almost immediately. Can we just pause for a moment to slow roll Martin? We should, without diminishing his potential or skill set. 1] What he did with his bat jumping from a lost year to AA shouldn't be discounted. He has "bat" potential. 2] Not only was he jumping to pro vs college after a lost season, but he was fighting a wrist injury. He has inate power in himself, but the wrist has to be healthy, and I'm sure it will be. Then it becomes trusting his approach as well as his stroke, and that's where coaching comes in to play. 3] Said it before and will say it again, he should continue to play as much SS as he can. Why wouldn't you? The WORST that could happen is he's a fill-in at SS. Hell, he might surprise and a bulb turns on and he suddenly feels comfortable there. 4] I see him as a LF, and soon, who can cover Buxton in CF, and can cover 2B/SS/3B as needed. He might end up being a full time player at the top of the order who plays everywhere. And there is tremendous value in that. Think a better version of Marwin. And isn't that the way baseball has been heading? Versatility. He MIGHT surprise us all at SS. But I see him as our 2023 LF. I think power will come. And he doesn't have to be a 25--30HR hitter to play LF. Who decided LF was a questionable defender with power? They Royals had a Gold Glove defender and offensive force for years with Gordon. The Twins did great with Hatcher and Gladden in LF. Ideally, soon, Lewis will take over SS, and Martin will be a "do everything" LF who covers CF and will be able cover some infield if needed. Lewis could easily be a STUD in LF. But how about we just give I'm a full 2022, only his 2nd pro season to see what he does first.

Busy 48hrs so late to this OP. A lot of very interesting posts made and just not enough time to address each one directly as I might prefer, so I'm going to make a couple bullet point comments while leaving Martin out of the conversation for what should be obvious reasons. 1] I think AK is going to be very good. I can't and won't try to explain his poor 2021 ST. But he looked downright dangerous when he was brought back up. I think he's just fine in the OF, though probably only average. TODAY, he might be the Twins LF even though 1B is probably his destination. Not because he's a poor OF, but because he just looks so fluid and natural at 1B. I HATE making comparisons to established players, but I think he will be "Morneau-like" as a hitter and defender. 2] I think Larnach is being under-sold due to his poor performance after his initial introduction. He wasn't quite ready enough, or polished enough, to stick. Tom did a great comparison recently that in their first 50 games in 2021, Larnach actually was as good or better than AK. He probably has the better arm. He won't be Kepler defensively in RF, but will probably be as good or better bat with as good or close to arm. Being rushed and needing a re-set after a great initial audition shouldn't diminish his potential. BTW, a lot of what I just stated about Larnach also applies, in slightly different ways, to Jeffers, Rorvedt and Celestino. Rooker....he has opportunity and now he needs to prove it. NOW, on to Lewis. Defense: I have NOT watched him daily. Not sure how many of us have. He has the athleticism, speed, quickness, range, and arm strength to make all the plays. I've seen enough hilights and ST games here and there to witness he has the ability. So if the only real problem is just making sure he can make the "routine" plays, then I'm not that worried. Routine plays come from experience, work, and even coaching. It comes down to positioning and basic fundamentals. There is also a mental aspect that means you have to engaged each play. I doubt anyone doesn't believe in Lewis's work ethic and dedication. So if routine plays are a concern, they shouldn't be. BUT, you only get better the more you play! Further, just as a side note, if you've ever taken time to examine the milb and early career defensive numbers of past great and established ML SS...and 3B...you would see a propensity of errors early in said careers with little exception. Offense: Lewis has inate power and speed. He seems to have "bat" ability, or has at least flashed it. In 2019 he was working through an injury and I'm sorry, but I can't recall right now what it was. A wrist? The FO saw enough, believed enough, that they promoted him to AA where his offensive numbers were nearly identical, though not great. Seemingly fully healthy, he was sent to the AFL but was forced to play various spots besides SS. All he did was hit like crazy and earn MVP. I read where someone stated the AFL doesn't have good pitching. I'd sure like to see proof of that as the AFL rosters have always been considered A+ and AA equivalence prospect and milb wise. We honestly, unfortunately, have NO IDEA, how good Lewis looked in 2020 at the alternate site. We hear good to great reports. But is that defense, offense, BOTH? As fans, we just don't know. But at least he was playing a little and being coached. At least he didn't lose 2020 totally. But then 2021 happened. And it STINKS! He is the most exciting and talented player the Twins have drafted since Buxton. I BELIEVE in the kid and his talent and his future. What I don't believe in...as a cautionary person...is that he's some kind of bust if he isn't ready mid 2022. LET HIM PLAY. I would start him out at Wichita and play him daily and promote him to AAA as soon as he looks ready. And I would be extatic if he was ready late in 2022 or ready to compete in 2023.

Hey Mike, sorry I didn't respond earlier, but I got busy and the thread was getting derailed from Miranda. But I felt bad not responding to you. It's not that I don't think Story is a bad ballplayer or that I don't want him. And it's not that I want ownership to pocket unspent money. In fact, I WANT them around $150M and I think they can afford that. In fact, as I've stated before, I'd be excited and optimistic if they DID sign Story. My concern is the financial cost of $20-23M for 4-6yrs for which version of Story we'd be signing. It's been argued, against my trepidation, that his significantly lower OPS on the road vs at home in Coors Field...I believe it's a good 100 points or so...is dismissable as most players have a lower OPS away from home, and sometimes a Rockies player might even make adjustments on a road trip over time away. Not an unfair point. HOWEVER, NOT playing half his games in Coors Field as his home park makes his "road" career OPS in the lower .700's that much more important to me, IMO. Now we're talking Target Field as his 81 HOME games, along with another 81 road games, ALL away from Coors Field and the influence on his career numbers. I'm sorry, but committing $20-23M for 4-6yrs for a good SS with power and speed ability, but an OPS that seems to be defined by his previous park and would appear to have low .700-ish threshold sounds like a potential "over buy" to me. Tom made a great comment in one of his podcasts a couple weeks ago that it's a GOOD THING if Lewis proves himself and becomes everything we want and hope and believe in, AND we have Story. I couldn't agree more! But I am cautious, maybe overly cautious, for allocating those funds on that sizeable commitment when a solid stop-gap might be in play and maintain that financial flexibility for future additions and extensions 2023 and beyond. So I am NOT anti-Story at all! But again, I have trepidation.

Hit a bad button and lost my response. GRR! Have to regroup. LOVE the post!! Agree JD is no reason to not sign Story. But I will contend that I'm not sure signing Story is the right move. JD's contact will be gone in 2+ years regardless if traded or not. And currently, there are no major financial obligations other than Buxton which are fair, manageable, and incentive based. IF the Twins signed Story I would be happy, hopeful, and I would be crossing my fingers. First, he's a quality SS. Second, he provides power and some speed and SB opportunities, much less an extra base opportunity. But unless I'm mistaken, his career OPS away from Coors Field drops significantly about a 100 points to somewhere around. 720-740. With good defense and power and decent speed he's absolutely worth something. But $20-23M for 4-6yrs? I'd have to pass on that! I LOVE a comment Tom made on a recent podcast that having Story "in the way" of Lewis proving his worth is a good problem to have! But I'm really struggling with Story being worth the $ value being placed on him. And I think that is part of the reason he wasn't part of the FA frenzy that happened before the lockout. I'm 100% behind you in regard to letting prospects "force" their way on to a roster. There are those few talents, like a Mauer, where there is really no decision to be made. But they are few and between. Miranda had one of the best milb seasons EVER in the system. And one thing a lot of media forgets, he wasn't some flier mid or late round surprise. He was a young early round selection the Twins have just been waiting to put it together. He did that in 2021. But when you look at a roster crunch to begin 2022, what do you do if everyone is healthy? Forget service time because it's not always about that. IF the roster is healthy, Miranda is best served playing daily at St Paul and coming up as probably the 1st guy. Hell, even Arraez has more experience in LF than he does. Don't make another "Sano to RF just because" experiment. IF he doesn't just rake and "fit in" to a different position, LF, then for his sake and his future, let him play daily until opportunity arises. And it will. Of course, injury or trade will adjust the roster. AK is the future at 1B. It may not be the beginning of 2022 depending on trades. But it's his eventual home. But don't mess with Miranda. I agree with that. Play a few spots that feel comfortable and just wait for openings. And they will come/happen. And it could happen from day 1 or a month in. But don't mess with what you have. Defensively? Gaetti, Koskie, Plouffe, 30yrs of quality 3B who weren't supposed to be good there but turned out to be good to outstanding. Focus on Miranda being a 3B and he will be just fine at 3B. But it's OK if everyone is healthy and ready to go whenever this lockout nightmare ends. Just let him get his stuff together and be ready.

Just wanted to comment on a few things you brought up. 1] A healthy Donaldson is absolutely the primary 3B. But I believe he will DH on occasion to keep him fresh and in the lineup. He will share DH with Sano and Arraez. Of course, cross your fingers, but if the injury bug bites Donaldson again, things change. 2] Rooker is absolutely on a bubble right now. But even if he has figured stuff out and has a good ST, he may end up sharing LF with Arraez at times, and.... 3] Kirilloff. If nobody lays claim to being the full time LF. AK will split his time at 1B and LF. From what little I've seen him, AK is just fine as an OF. But he just looks so natural at 1B that I think that is his ultimate position. And there's nothing wrong with that! Having a good hitter at 1B who is excellent defensively at the position is underrated. But his "permanent" move to 1B might not be until the latter half of 2022 or '23. By then I think LF will be in good hands. 4] I agree on not going big on a SS. If the Twins surprise the hell out of us and make a Story move, I will celebrate and HOPE his good glove and questionable bat away from Coors Field is actually worth $20+M. But for various reasons, I don't see it happening. SS will be a trade or FA signing. Martin, I'd keep him at SS as long as I could in case a light comes on and he suddenly feels natural there. I believe the FO still believes in Lewis and will look for a short term option there. 5] Agree there will be "hell" once this damned lockout eventually ends. There will be rapid fire movement. But I can almost guarantee the Twins, and all teams, have at least half their plans and moves already in place. They've been working behind the scenes before the lockout and probably even during, just getting ready. Biggest question might be if there are any surprises to be sprung.

OK. And BTW, this a really interesting conversation. The 40 man stands at 38 players currently. So even if/when the Twins sign/trade for a SS and SP, they can add 2 without having to lose anyone. And then, of course, they free up 2 additional spots with Maeda and Enlow going to the 60 day IL once things get rolling to keep the roster a bit more flexible in regard to potential promotions to the roster. Can someone clarify when the 60 day IL moves can take place? I believe they can't make those moves until the initial 26 man roster is set to begin the season? Assuming, for a moment, that any trades the team might make WOULDN'T include any players on the current 40 man, that's when you get in to a crunch. Naturally, if a player or two ON the 40 man were to be dealt, then you immediately create additional openings. The problem is who do you or the Twins feel comfortable moving at this time? As I stated earlier, Rooker would seem to be the most obvious choice. But a quality milb track record, a good looking initial SSS in 2020 shouldn't make him easily dismissanle despite a disappointing 2021. There is a hole in LF and an opportunity for him to claim at least a portion of that spot. This changes somewhat if Larnach is suddenly ready. But you can't bank on that. He might need a little more time. So then AK becomes a viable option for LF instead of just sliding him in to at least a semi-permanent 1B role. Which also means Sano has that much greater value as a 1B as well as a DH. Arraez has real trade value, and may be an ideal MONEYBALL option as part of a deal with Oakland. But he brings a skill set with the Twins that nobody else is ready to duplicate at this time. And IMO, he should be in the lineup almost daily at 1 of 3 spots, or DH, to bat leadoff and set the table. (Looking at you Rocco). Garver should have at least a couple more quality years in front of him, Jeffers might be even better, overall, but is still developing. I think Rortvedt has a chance to be excellent as a #2, but could really use a little more time to develop his bat. (Additional power WILL COME). He's been promoted pretty aggressively due to need and his defense. So right now, all of this in flux, I personally don't feel very good about dealing/removing anyone from the player side of things. That could change dramatically by 2023 or even mid-season 2022. I hate to say it as I've been rooting for the kid for some time now, and he might yet find a role, but Thorpe might be one of the first "subtractions" to open up a roster spot. The problem you have when looking at ANY potential additions is that you'd like to see 4 brought on board. 2 SP, SS, and a quality RP option. And while some believe the 40 man has more than a few easily replaceable opportunities, I disagree. The current roster is filled with quality veterans, a large group of young ready or nearly ready, and a few "not quite sure" but sure don't want to give away for nothing possibilities. Rooker, Thorpe and a hopefully healthy Stashak come to mind. Garza might fit in this category as well, but he looked pretty good in a Twins uniform last year. And while I know some will disagree with me, I'd hate to not give Thorpe one last look. Could he be the next Thielbar? Would he clear waivers or be claimed? A healthy Stashak is not a BLOW THEM AWAY, bullpen arm. But he's flashed when healthy over a couple seasons. And I've already mentioned Rooker. I'm not anxious to remove any of these guys today. And I'm not saying any of these guys will necessarily come back to haunt. Just saying I don't think they are necessarily "fodder" to be easily dumped. And I'd love to have a ST and at least part of a season in 2022 to see what they do and see if they offer any real promise. But simple, logical examination would indicate that if no-one on the 40 man were included in trades, Rooker, Thorpe, Stashak and maybe Garza would be the top 4 to simply remove to make room. Money says all 4 would be picked up by someone.

I think it depends, are we talking GONE from the Twins entirely, or are we just talking not on the opening day roster? If we're talking opening day roster, Rortvedt, Martin, and one of Celestino/Rooker takes you down to 14 easily. From there it's about health more than anything. Miranda could start at St Paul simply to play daily until the rest of the roster shakes out. If we're talking GONE from the Twins, Rooker is probably #1, and becomes rather redundant with the RH bat of Miranda, and better defense regardless where he plays. After that, honestly, I couldn't make a prediction. A trade of Arraez or one of the catchers would make the most sense, but not sure that happens at this time. Garver will eventually slow down being over 30, but seems to have at least a couple really good years left. Arraez, no matter how good he is, may be pushed out of the lineup by Martin and off the roster by Steer or Julian in another year or so.

That 3rd pitch coming together is the key. And it seemed like it was happening last year. I'm also encouraged by 97IP in 2021 when so many guys had sore arms at one point or another that held them back and limited them. The AAA club is not just about prospect status. Sometimes a team wants to hold on to a couple AAAA guys as fliers and depth pieces for the parent club. Guys do get promoted from AA ball. So I wouldn't be shocked if he gets a month at Wichita just to put rosters in place and sort everything out. Now I think he's ready for St Paul and that's where I'd place him. But prospects and depth pieces, I wouldn't be shocked or angry if he got that 1st month lower. My hope is that he's in AAA to begin the season. He has the stuff and potential to be very good. And this FO hasn't been shy about promotions. I think he's more than ready to finish working on his stuff and gaining additional experience in St Paul. He could be a mid-season call up.

I'm of the general opinion to be risk adverse on a high draft selection and draft the very best player available regardless of position. And if that player is at a position of depth in my system already, so what. Get the most talent you can and sort it out later. Where I'm OK taking chances are later in the 1st, like Petty this year. That being said, sometimes a player falls in your lap and the risk/reward has to be considered. But a potential injury, or one waiting to happen, holds true for every drafted arm, yes? Let's say Boras is being genuine here and the recent medicals match previous ones. Your team's staff will have to make the call that he's sound and they don't see an abnormal risk. Maybe the Mets were spooked by something the Twins, and other teams, wouldn't see or be overly concerned with. But it does seem a bit odd that the Mets, with all their money, would back off. But if he pitches in independent ball and looks great and is as healthy as can be, would he even be available for the Twins at 8? Would someone pounce on him? There's a lot to like in Rocker for sure. Now, if he doesn't look great, or refuses to be thoroughly examined, it's a hard pass without even blinking. Let someone else take a gamble late in the 1st and take the risk. Not sure I see the stars lining up here. He pitches great and the medicals check out, he might be gone by 8. He DOESN'T pitch, for whatever reason, then I'm skeptical even if the medicals do look OK. He's rusty and I have the feeling something is being kept from me. Maybe he's just a victim of bad circumstance and is a real steal for someone and the Mets just messed up. But right now, too many unknowns. Now, he looks great in independent ball and my medical staff sees no great risk and the other 7 teams picking ahead of me pass for some reason, he's in my "plan A" consideration. In February, with milb and independent ball just getting ready to crank up, he's off my board in the 1st round.

Great post. I think the age debate has some merit. It could also be debated/shown how many quality pitchers matured late and went on to great careers, as well as hiw many debuted early and flamed out. What I think we have to remember is all of these kids are a year younger "prospect wise" than their physical ages.

Keith Law, and just about any paid observer/scribe/former FO employee has forgotten more about baseball and prospect evaluation than I will ever know. Period. And who am I? Just a fairly smart person of 56yo who has been watching baseball most of his life and eating up everything from Baseball Digest to the Sporting News and Baseball America, to just about every baseball website you can imagine since the internet became a real "thing" 20yrs ago. I've seen Gooden and King Felix be the best pitchers ever before burning out. I've seen Clemmons being a STUD from pretty much day one. I've seen Randy Johnson being the best prospect in baseball struggle, be OK, and then suddenly dominate. Ive seen Stieb and Key being OK prospects and pitchers turn in to ACES and dominate when they weren't expected to. Yada, Yada, etc, etc. I've also witnessed countless TOP pitching prospects who never made it. Going back in time a bit, the 90's A's had 4 young pitchers that were supposed to maintain their window, lead by Todd Van Poppel, the second coming of Nolan Ryan. None of that happened. Conversely, ugly as it is to remember, it was just shy of this time the Twins had a collection of pitching talent that was supposed to lead them to a WS. None of them contributed to '87 or '91. Law would destroy me in a debate, as would others about prospects or the history of. But I could care less based on history.. What I DO KNOW is that projecting SP is an almost hopeless exercise. History has proven that to be true.. But the more arms you have, the better your chances to find quality pitching. According to the OP, didn't Law put Balazovic in his top 100 before anyone else? Well, he was awesome and then was shut down to protect him. That's not abnormal for any team post 2020, or the injury factor. Strotman was ranked higher in the Ray's system than Ryan before TJ. Where is Law on this? SWR was a top 100-150 prospect almost since drafted. But young for AA and a mediocre season at best, how does he "stink" now? Ober put up video game numbers as a less than high selection but had injury concerns. Suddenly he finds a repeatable delivery that keeps him healthy, AND makes adjustments during his rookie season to get better. But coming in to 2021 he was what, a late 20 or early 30th ranked prospect? A year ago, did most fans/writers know who Winder and Varland were? A lot of things can change in ONE YEAR in regard to prospects. A year ago, Miranda was a high draft prospect with a decent bat that could be very good. Now he's a top prospect in all of baseball. Keith Law says the Twins pitching prospects are not above the medium? Despite the fact he's ranked Twins prospects high previously? Sucks, he could be right. But, come on, there's just too much stuff and too many good arms here. And history has shown you really don't know what the hell you have until they actually pitch. Numbers and talent say we have a couple quality arms that will be part of our 2022-2023 and beyond. History states a couple will be very good, a couple solid, a couple will find a role in the BP. But nobody will surpass the medium? It may take time, but I call BS. At least a couple will match Berrios or better. Just too many arms and too much arm talent .

I had to re-post this because a "like" can't display how much I want to "double like" or "love" this post. And it's NOT about Law, and I will comment further, but this post is just spot on with content/opinion. More to follow.

You may not be rational, but your thoughts/hopes aren't unfounded or ridiculous. With very little exception, virtually all SP take a season or two to learn, grow, and adapt and "become" what they are going to be, more or less. Just in regard to Twins history, the aforementioned Radke looked decent as a rookie, but was far better after his first year or two. Berrios, for all his stuff and future results, didn't debut with great results. Gibson is similar, though he was never as good as Berrios. Now, that doesn't mean a SP can't continue to get better! Pitching is an ART, and NOT pure velocity. If it were, then the road to success wouldn't be paved with the failed careers of mid to upper 90's fastball failures. (Hope that doesn't sound mean). To take it a step further, again with little exception, the guys who achieve ACE status, are utterly unpredictable. They "happen", and generally speaking, they "happen" over time. But back to your irrational thinking, LOL, Ryan is smart, athletic, and determined. (Berrios characteristics). And he's off to a great start, in SSS. The difference between the two is pure velocity. And again, velocity is NOT everything. (Radke comparison again). Ryan's FB plays faster. His control is already solid. As I stated earlier, his secondary stuff was better than reported initially. But without pure velocity to fall back on, he needs to continue to refine his secondary stuff as well as his knowledge/ART of pitching. But that is going to be true of ALL of the Twins prospects, some of whom have that better velocity. So that's not to shade your thoughts/hopes at all. I also like this guy a lot. He could be just as good, just different. But we probably won't know for sure how good he might be until 2023, no matter what he does in 2022. And this holds true for Ober, and everyone who appears in 2022.

Love his control and was surprised how good his slider and change looked when I watched him. While I'm certain there remains room for improvement, what I saw was ML ready and solid across the board. Bad games happen for everyone, so I'm not too worried about his last game. Again, these things happen. But as I recall, he was off schedule slightly after attending a family funeral.