Everything posted by DocBauer
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Twins 2020 Position Analysis: Left Field
To preface, I announce I am a huge fan of Eddie, and have been for a long time. The guy is gregarious, fun, talented and productive. I also feel he is part of the heart of the team for all of the above. Despite a couple bad second half performances due to injury, he has put up numbers. When healthy, he is DANGEROUS. When healthy, he's also a pretty good OF. Can you imagine what he might have produced fully healthy in 2019? The guy has great instincts and is usually right. For every mistake he may make, he makes another 3 great plays. I'll take that. I'll even take some bad streaks because of what he does the rest of the time...healthy. BUT...can he stay healthy and be all he can be? If so, even with some of his idiosyncrasies, he is worth the $12-13M he would command in arbitration in 2021, or an extension. But he might also be one of the easiest players to replace with Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker so close. I don't want Eddie to go. I want him healthy and raking and signed to an extension he deserves and earned. Let the prospect chips fall where they may. However, with the talent coming up behind him...Cruz staying or going could also have an impact...the writing could be on the wall come 2021 or 2022. For now, I'm going to root for him as a big fan and hope he makes the FO sweat for all he can do and bring with a healthy 2020.
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Jordy Blaze dominant on 3/10
Thank you! First hand accounts like this are like mana to the rest of us. For those too young to remember, or who weren't so invested in milb back then, in the early to mid 80's, the Twins had a collection of SP milb talent that was amongst tne best in baseball. Banks, Baumgardner, Nivens, Gasser, Sontag, Pittman and Newman. Unfortunately, not a single arm turned out. A couple had cups of coffee and bounced around a bit. My point is NOT to be negative. Quite the contrary! While its been a full generation since that time, I can honestly say the Twins have some of the best collection of arms I have seen since that time. JB, Duran, Dobnak, Thorpe, Colina, Enlow, Sands and others like Winder, Ober, etc. Not all are going to make it, of course. And some might turn out to be quality RP. But something is bejng built here that has me very excited.
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Tale of the Fifth Starter Tape
I'm really torn here. Given a choice, this is the perfect opportunity/time for a young 5th SP...Dobnak in this case...to gain experience, perform, and build his case for the future as well as 2020. But if a flier like Chacin finds his old self again, you are adding not an experienced body, but a quality ML SP with real value for a team with playoff and WS aspirations. That would be killer! What a potential steal! But yeah, how about a young SP from the system who can be a part of our team for years to come? Dobnak!
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Twins Announce First Round Of Cuts
I am not judging anything Thorpe may have tweeted because frankly, (and this is part of the reason I despise Twitter and don't have it), things sent out can not only be spontaneous but misinterpreted without proper context and vocalizations. How many of us have read or sent a text message, or email, for instance that wasn't interpreted the way we intended? This kid has already gone through a lot in his career, and he's responded wonderfully. He's been going through something we know nothing about, hence his time off. I'm pretty sure Rocco and others have sat him down and made the situation and their belief in him very clear. Honestly, sending him out now is a good thing. It means he can relax, get in his work, get stretched out, and get ready for a great 2020. When the dust settles, this will be something barely remembered.
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Miranda Searches for New Heights in 2020
I just love these close up looks at the prospects, Seth. Thank you! Well done! I know this sounds like a broken record but once again really impressed with this kid and his attitude. And he is one of the lower level prospects I've been watching closely as I've been hoping since day one he might just be a future 3B for the Twins. It's been brought up in another thread about the dearth of 3B prospects within the system, and also how few HOF 3B there are. Seems to be a lack of 3B depth wherever you look. With good health, hopefully the hot corner is settled in Minnesota for the next 4yrs. And maybe I'm just an optimist, but I'm not sure the Twins system is that scarce in regard to 3B prospects, beginning with Miranda, and possibly Lewis. (Though Lewis could potentially, move Polanco or Arraez there, though that may not be optimal). While it appears the Twins don't feel he has a full time future there, I'd still like to see Blenkenhorn play there to increase his versatility. A healthy and still growing Javier could be an option still. I had hopes for Bechtold, but I'm not sure now about his future. Really hoping Miranda keeps making progress and becomes the next great Twins 3B in a few years.
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Byron Buxton's Recovery Reaches New Milestone
The thing he has going for him, as I understand it, is that his conditioning is 100% and I believe I heard he's shagging balls, etc, and doing everything "normal" other than hitting. While the question remains about regaining timing, if she shoulder holds up, I could see him breaking with the club.
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3 Free Agents-To-Be With Something to Prove in 2020
Agree 100%. There have been rumors ever since he signed the QO that both he and the Twins were interested in an extension. In fact, I'm a little surprised we haven't heard anything about one yet. Maybe the FO has just been too busy working on others right now??? When the other FA options were signed, there were a few that commented Oddo would regret signing as the market had ramped up versus what we saw the past couple of years. While a longer term deal is something Jake wants, and I'd like to see, my argument was simply that the yearly value was in line.
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3 Free Agents-To-Be With Something to Prove in 2020
All three are quality, valuable players in their own right. Just a few comments/opinions: 1] Adrianza: Unless a losing/non-contending comes along with a fairly substantial offer as they feel he can help them advance forward...as good as he is...he's not going to move a needle and is probably better off re-signing with the Twins. 2] May is good. Time to accept that. I am not saying the Twins should break the bank for a RP...we all know how volitle that market can be...but they need him and should extend him IMO. The budget should allow for it. 3] Odorizzi: I really like Oddo and think some undervalue him. He's not a #1 and never going to be, but he is very, very good for 5+ innings. No matter how much I like him, and want him to stay, he is not Wheeler with a 95MPH FB that teams hoped would help him take another step up and reach another level. Maybe I'm just lost, but there is no way he would have received $23-25M offers the way Wheeler did. $20M maybe?? But if so, that's only a couple $M than he's signed for this season. Arguements that he made a mistake or his agent is inept are just ridiculous. His salary is very fair and in line with market value the past couple of years, including this one. If not, he's only slightly below. I think all three can be re-signed/extended without any harm to the overall payroll.
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Twins Announce First Round Of Cuts
Not surprised at all by Thorpe. The Twins are very high on him and his potential. I believe they absolutely see him in the rotation, though he could help in the pen at any time, but right now he needs IP and to be stretched out. No way they are going to rush him in any way to potentially make the pen. I found the comments about Chalmers and Alcala very interesting. Obviously, both have big arms and loads of potential. Really liked the thought about "nursing" Chalmers a bit due to lack of IP. I thought the comment about being focused on the end of the season and not the beginning to be telling. They clearly like the idea of him remaining in the rotation long term potentially. Alcala seems destined for relief, where he could be very good. But I like the idea they won't immediately pigeonhole him in to a singular role. I take that to mean he could open, pitch middle, setup, close, etc. Slightly surprised by Celistino. That tells me Buxton is going to start playing or they might have kept him a little longer. Gordon makes sense at this point. Same with Blenkenhorn. Time for them to get ready for their seasons. Watched the game on Sunday, and while he is on a new diet for his stomach issues, someone get Gordon on a high protein diet. The kid needs weight and muscle to advance. Please, please keep working Blenkenhorn at 3B so he can be at least passable there. I think he has a chance to be a solid 5 position contributor.
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MLB.com Top 30 Twins Prospects
FWIW: Tori Hunter: 23yo/ 384AB/ .689OPS 24yo/ 336AB/ .726OPS 25yo/ 564AB/ .784OPS Byron Buxton: 23yo/ 462AB/ .728OPS 24yo/ 90AB/ .383OPS 25yo/ 271AB/ .827OPS Everyone needs to make of this what you will. I know what I see.
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The Twins 2018 Draft Class is Loaded with Talent
That was great, Andrew! Thank you! Larnach has looked very good. While we haven't quite seen the full power display/potential yet, I think he's been a better "hitter" early on than I expected. I still think there is just something "special" about Kirilloff, but I think Larnach is nipping at his heels. I admit to being very surprised, and maybe a bit disappointed by the Jeffers pick based on all the pre-draft rankings. But I recall how high the FO was after the draft. Boy, they keep surprising me with how smart they are. For some crazy reason, I keep thinking Winder was selected a year or two earlier. Mental block? To realize/remember he's only a year and a half in to his pro career makes me re-analyize his status. Sands could be a HUGE surprise. I have to reflect to the recent OP about the Indians and their ability to develop SP talent when thinking about him. With the exception of Bauer, who was traded for, most of the Indians pitching talent were drafted 4/5th round or later. Sands seems to fit this plan. Makes me wonder even more about the kid drafted last season who didn't pitch last season from UCLA was it? Name slips memory right now. As I recall, Williams had a shoulder issue that mostly kept him from catching his senior year at Clemson. I believe he mostly played 1B and DH, which is what he did initially his rookie year. I guess I didn't realize he spent most of 2019 behind the plate. If he can bring that bat potential and legitimately play catcher, the depth in the system becomes the envy of most of MLB when you look at what else is there. Again, thanks for the recap! As much as I love to follow the system, you sometimes lose track.
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Wheres Byron Buxton ?
It is not mid March yet. We have a good week until that time frame. I'm sure he will either be participating or we will hear something different. I want a healthy Buxton, not a rushed Buxton. IIRC, Hunter had a few injury issues early as well. Is Buxton injury prone or early snakebit? We really don't know yet. One thing I'm wondering is if he's not ready, does Wade make the club? He seems to be doing OK in ST and seems to be a better option in CF than Cave. Does he force his way on to the opening roster so Kepler can stay in RF?
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Chris Archer ST delayed debut
I just never bought in to Archer while with TB for the kind of cost it was reported it would take to get him. Despite a big arm and some solid numbers, he never seemed to "transcend" his potential to another level. The Ray's are very progressive, have had some quality years, and have been fairly well known for developing talent. I often think about King Felix up in Seattle all those years, often times pitching for poor teams. And while the W-L weren't there, all the other numbers were. Archer is just young enough where he could raise his game. And I was in favor of the Twins making a move for him if the cost was right. But I never felt he was going to front the rotation. Apparently nobody else feels the same way. Maybe he will surprise and be a major contributor or a mid season chip. Personally, I think the staff for the Twins looks awfully good right now.
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MLB.com Top 30 Twins Prospects
Don't have my prospect handbook available, but from memory, the kid is similar to Hicks and Buxton when you look at tool set and potential. So totally agree with you. 2019 set him back a good full season plus, but just given time there could be something there. I think we often forget numbers don't equal tools and potential.
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MLB.com Top 30 Twins Prospects
Well, you know math is allowed here at TD but highly discouraged. Lol! But no question that the inability for a batter to pick up the ball early is a huge advantage for the pitcher regardless of the algorithm math stuff. That 18" extra reach and more arm, leg and body movement has got to confuse hitters. Man I hope he can stay healthy. I just keeping thinking there is so much length to work with mechanically that he should be working hard on anything from yoga to pilates, etc, to maintain himself.
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Minor Leaguers to get a Raise
I appreciate any arguement about the cost of living in general for anyone and everyone. But, of course, we are talking specifically about the young men in milb here. Their hours per week, as has been stated, is not just a 40hr work week. And for many/most/all there isn't much of an offseason to work and put away extra cash due to continuing to work on their games. And most, unless they had additional grants and the such, have student loans on top of every day expenses. While it is absolutely true that each team only has a handful of guys who will ever make THE SHOW and earn anything there, you still need full teams. You also never know who will suddenly rise up to make themselves a contributor. Witness Dobnak as an example. I have no clue if there are existing rules and/or regulations that somehow prevent a parent club from spending more on salaries, food allowances, etc. But what is spent on each team couldn't be more, I'd bet, than a ML rookie earning minimum. The recent changes are very welcome and a good first step. But again, were I an owner knowing these young players are the lifeblood of my parent club, I'd be much more aggressive in what I provided.
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Two Wild Cards: Luis Gil and Dakota Chalmers
I think I might still stick with Chalmers...leaving any contributions by Cave out of the equation...simply because gut feeling is Chalmers has the better chance to stay in the rotation. Also, despite limited IP, he's still closer to the ML level, which makes me feel he's closer to panning out.
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Can College Pitching Prospects Lead the Minnesota Twins to a Cleveland-esque Rotation?
Sure someone smarter than me, or more willing to dig deep, could correct me but I'm thinking the highest of their recent core was the 4th or 5th round. Bauer being the exception, of course, but they didn't draft him
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Can College Pitching Prospects Lead the Minnesota Twins to a Cleveland-esque Rotation?
Ober?
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Real Live Wolf Broadcasts Twins Game, Dozens Injured
Topless frozen yogurt bar? Yes please!! NICE shot at Gleeman for the expired drivers license! Whole thing had me rolling!!
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Pick Your Pitcher: Who Should Get the Twins' 5th Rotation Spot?
I believe Thorpe is going to be part of the Twins rotation and fairly soon. I eliminate him from the #5 spot right now simply because I think he's too far behind with the time he missed. Love Smeltzer, his guts, his story, and I think he can be solid. A return to form by Chacin could be a huge steal. But I'm rooting for Dobnak. He's got a chance to be pretty good and around for a while. It would be nice if "a while" began now.
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Another Way the Josh Donaldson Signing Was Necessary
A few comments after LMAO at Nash's comments. 1] I should copy and paste my comments on the 3B depth post, but won't. Shouldn't have to. NOBODY who has a very good 3B has a plug and play alternative. The Twins have depth in Marwin and Adrianza. Maybe Astudillo if the 2018 and non-injured 2019 version fighting to get back in to a groove after showing some production when healthy and not chasing the way outside pitch version of himself returns. (Whew!) Sano can also still be decent/passable if something dreadful happens. (I need wood to knock on!) Oh crap I AM repeating myself! 2] There is NO REASON why Lewis can't be a future 3B option, since it was brought up. He has tremendous skills to be harnessed, and all the ability to play 3B. In fact, if you can play SS, unless your reactions are slow, you should be able to play 3B at least decently. Arm strength is similar. Again, Lewis's first introduction to MLB may be as an injury call up. Which is why, like all milb players, and to develop versatility, he should play other positions besides just SS. Referencing depth in the system, Miranda is not a singular option. What if the young, talented Polanco continues to improve defensively? What if he proves his new throwing motion and continued game experience turns him in to at least an average ML SS? What's wrong with Lewis becoming a future stud at 3B? I've mentioned that a time or two and been told it would be a waste of his talent. How so? It is complete and utter hyperbole at this point to compare HOF players, but that's like saying A-Rod was somehow "wasted" playing 3B for the Yankees while Jeter played SS. Hyperbole, yes, but the argument is still similar. 3] While I was never as down as some regarding Sano at 3B and his potential there, no doubt this move makes the Twins better, offensively and defensively. It may even help Polanco. I will not anoint Sano any sort of Gold Glove, but I think with some time, he has all the ability and experience as a former SS, 3B, to take his skills to be at worst a solid 1B defensively. Especially considering his new-found dedication and willingness to move and improve himself and the team. 4] The undervalued and unexpected contributions of Donaldson. I was NEVER against his signing by any means. But you heard whispers, gossip, about him. But from his press conference to his first days of ST, all we have heard and seen is a guy who wants to play and perform and contribute. He is already becoming a team leader for the club and imparting experience and knowledge to the prospects. Remind you of anyone? Cruz perhaps? I am becoming more and more enamored with our FO and the choices they make. All of the moves they have made from the top on down, including manager, coaches, etc, they have also brought on board 2 different but highly productive ML veterans who make a huge difference with their performance on the field, but who might be making as big of a difference with the rest ofntbe roster and those who are getting ready to contribute.
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Is Luis Arraez Really Just Ben Revere?
Ted, love your work and appreciate the OP, but find it a bit strange to compare a CF and 2B 10yrs apart in the beginning of their careers. Despite changes in philosophy over the years, especially defensive shifts, Arraez nips Revere in every quad split during their milb career. And while it is a very SSS, Arraez EASILY eclipses Revere in those same quad splits for their rookie season. There is a difference in making contact and making successful contact. It would appear, to this point, that Arraez has better bat control, a better approach, and just a better "hit" factor overall. His eye and control leans to better sustainability and a much better OB%. None of this is to say he will or will not continue what he showed as a rookie. But it sure appears they are very different players and hitters, as the OP points out in various numbers. I just don't think they are really comparable despite a few similarities.
- Nick Gordon News?
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Are Twins Top Prospects Being Held Back by Loaded MLB Roster?
Short answer is absolutely no. When they are ready, they will push for a spot. This is not a rebuilding team who would probably promote anyone and everyone from AA/AAA and cycle through them and live with struggles and hope something sticks and sticks soon. Now next year, depending on who stays and who goes, and how the 40 man sets up, perhaps you'd have an arguement for someone being held back. But that's also called depth.