TL

I don’t mean to throw cold water on the hype but Walker and Palka had similar (slightly better?) strikeout rates at A+. If he can bring that down to ~25% as he advances to double and triple A I’ll be more excited. Otherwise, we can probably anticipate the MLB strikeout rate being in the high 30s, which will be problematic.

While still concerning, that dip in velocity his senior year must be the reason he dropped out of the first round (where all bonuses were > $2MM). A plus curve, 94 MPH fastball, projectable frame and good control at 18 years old seems like a recipe for high first rounder. Twins may have gotten very lucky he dropped - and then executed the strategy perfectly to grab him in round 3 with an over-slot bonus.

If the Twins were able to sign Darvish I’d go hard after Archer too. Instant rotation of a contender! Giving up Kepler is tough though. Good all around player with, I think, significantly more to come with the bat.

Hughes money is gone, let it go. I can’t imagine a team that hopes to contend would waste a spot on a guy only because they owe him so much money. The money is gone either way. If he is as good an option as another bullpen arm and that other arm can be stashed in Rochester and not accue service time, then fine. But if it means losing Pressly or another guy who has a future beyond ‘18 then he has to be the odd man out.

It will be expensive, but nothing compared to what it would be after next year if he even has a similar year as ‘17. I agree with bighat that it may be now or never. If we wait and still sign him later it may come at the expense of being able to keep the core together (Kepler, Sano, Berrios, etc) or having dollars to sign free agents. And if it turns out in a few years Royce is not a SS but instead a top CF prospect who is blocked by Buxton, then so much the better as we can trade him for a top starter or whatever we may need at the time.

Great analysis! It seems that there is a good chance the BABIP was low due to luck. I wonder if the infield fly rate could also be partly due to him making an adjustment and learning to change his launch angle, which could pay off in 2018. I’ve always felt like he would begin to hit lefties, mostly because he did it in the minors (at least the last season in AA). This analysis gives me even more hope he is going to take it to another level this year.

So many tough calls to make and any of them could go very right or blow up and look foolish. I’m of the opinion you look to win in ‘18 (weaker division, at least wild card there for the taking) while not sacrificing the ‘19 - ‘21 window. In my dreams: 1. Sign Darvish 2. Trade for Archer (must give up Sano in order to keep younger elite prospects) 3. Extend Santana 2 years (pick up ‘19 option and add 2 years for $25MM?) 4. Extend Dozier 3 years ($45MM? Strong ‘18 FA class could depress his value if he hits open market) 5. Sign Frazier to play 3B (3 for $36MM?) 6. Hope Vargas can mash at DH 7. Romero and May to the bullpen That doesn’t seem all that unrealistic. The ‘18 staff would be excellent (those 3 above + Berrios) and all signed through at least ‘21. Guys start coming off the books when we have to (hopefully) pay Buxton and Berrios superstar money, and guys like Lewis and Gonsalves start hitting their stride as young, cheap and high upside replacements in ‘22 and beyond. I’d have to check what payoll would look like to see if that works. If not then can forego either Dozier or Frazier and have Escobar/Gordon fill in.

“If you love someone, set them free. If they come back they're yours; if they don't they never were.” The Burdi move is a mystery or at least I don’t know how to truly think about whether he ends up being offered back, with the DL rules. But if they plan to add to the 40 man through free agency or trades then instead of designating Bard for assignment isn’t it more likely they retain him long-term by losing him in the rule 5?

100% agree with this. If the Twins were to sign Darvish, pry Archer away and have Berrios take another step this year (personally I think he will take a BIG step) the rotation would be top 5. Pair that with a potentially top 5 defense and above average offense and you have a recipe for winning big. I’d still go after Cole either way and see what it would take. At worst it can drive up the price the Yankees have to pay if they truly want him, a good consolation prize.

This. Twins will have much more flexibility to make splashy trades with a deep farm system, as well as the increased likelihood that one or two of the guys from a deep system will exceed expectations. The other strategy I’d like to see employed more often is in years where their payroll is on the lower end due to playing a lot of young guys not arb eligible (like the last few years), they use money on a higher priced veteran with an eye toward a deadline trade if they are not in contention. Another path to adding “assets”.

I’m glad to hear the Twins aren’t looking at their system and thinking they have enough shortstops. They don’t stick that often and can move almost anywhere. After keeping Braves money and adding another $2MM + I guess he wanted to go where he saw the quickest path. Understandable.

Using the money (at no actual expense) versus not using it is the obviously right decision. Had to look it up to confirm but the money does not roll over so it would have been lost. The only question I have is whether they used it to acquire the right player(s). The Angels just signed Kevin Maitan for $2.2MM of international bonus money after his contract with the Braves was voided due to the international signing scandal. He was a top 50 prospect in all of baseball. Who knows if we could have signed him if we threw more $ at him or if we tried, but that would appear on its face to be a better usage of that money than the two we got. Time will tell though and Falvine’s moves thus far in acquiring young talent have been impressive (e.g., 2017 Draft + 2017 Trades).

This makes you think about the calculus around “readiness” for a major league promotion for defense-first guys. The process seems to largely focus on offense today, assuming the defense will be there when the offense finally comes around. Perhaps some of those guy’s maximum MLB values start earlier. It’s incredible what an elite defense can do for a pitching staff and a team even if not obvious looking at the typical stats. A good defensive catcher and full year of Buxton made a huge difference. Imagine an elite SS to go with this group.

I gotta say, the grass isn’t always greener. Dozier is putting up 4+ WAR and has turned himself into a dangerous hitter. Who knows if Polanco and Gordon will ever reach that. But the other thing to consider is that we also don’t have a real DH (assuming Sano can stick and 3B or slide to 1B in 2019). If one of Gordon or Polanco can prove to handle short and the other 2B then Dozier becomes a solid option for DH as his defense declines. That said, 3 year extension for me.

I would make a push for Salty. Ideally he is a 1/2 year to 1 1/2 year stop gap to Pinto, similar to AJ. But the difference is that when Pinto is ready to take over full time Salty will likely have good trade value and, if pinto isn't ready, we still have Salty. I'd like to see the Twins spend to their stated budget each year even if players aren't in their long term plans because guys like Salty can be flipped for prospects as opposed to pocketing that extra money (unless, of course, they rollover that cash into the next year to sign a top tier free agent, but that doesn't seem likely).

Agreed. And if Dozier could be above average at SS then middle infield is solved. I am sure they don't want to mess with Dozier's success this year but feels like they should give that a try next summer.

I think in June/July next year is when they'll know enough to make a decision for the future. A lot will depend on who they draft too. If they take one of the top college pitchers and Meyer and Gibson perform well then rotation for 2015 starts to shape up. On the other hand SS seems to be a strength in the draft and they could go that way, making it more necessary to trade for a front line starter. It's also interesting that Polanco has come on strong at 2B in 2013 and another good year could see us with three good options there, making at least one of them expendable (shades of the CF surplus from last offseason). Next year will be fun to see the prospects start really pushing for call ups and the Twins hopefully making moves to set up the team for postseason runs starting in 2015.

I would sign him. He came back very quickly from TJ surgery, arguably too quickly, with poor early results. lately he has been better and I would think closer to whgat to expect next year. plus he is a guy who never complains, wants the ball, and has a good chance to be an inning eater number 4 type starter for a few years. Not saying he is top of rotation material but I think he is a valuable piece with potential upside as he moves further away from surgery.