TL

Both sides should want to get this deal done. For Duran $20mm guaranteed is life-changing and on balance, taking into account potential for injury, he should probably take it and not worry about what he left on the table. For the Twins $20mm over 5 years is immaterial and gives them a chance to buy-out two option years at below market value. And as a bonus I'll have peace of mind knowing that if he gets injured tomorrow and never throws again he'll be good financially.

There is a clear path and potential to have a top end rotation with the top 6 guys. You start with the young but established guys who realistically have more upside to what are already solid #3 credentials (Lopez, Ryan). If just one of these guys takes the next step it will be huge for the rotation. Maeda should be fully recovered; it may take a few months but he could eventually resemble something close to what he was in 2021 (which was a #1). It is also a contract year for him and his last chance to get paid and make-up for the years he has been underpaid. Mahle and Gray staying healthy (a wildcard for sure) would each be expected to provide top end #3 type numbers, at least. Ober had better stats than any of them last year (in only 11 starts of course). The good news is his injury was not arm-related and I don't recall him having an injury history in the minors. Injuries will happen at some point, but the good news is we are not depending on just one or two young guys to break out in the minors. Varland and SWR seem most likely but there are plenty behind them who may surprise in 2023.

I'd try to entice him to opt in by providing an additional player option year for $35MM. Still keeps Twins off the hook for a long-term deal and keeps Correa's options open.

That no-trade is also a good move on Buxton's part to protect himself against the Twins deciding to trade a very team-friendly contact for a big return a few years in. He could demand a restructuring, which sort of gives him an opt out in the event the Twins aren't competitive (despite his performance) and are considering a rebuild.

Berrios. They both are capable of being all-stars and top Cy Young/MVP candidates, but two factors stand out in Berrios’s favor. 1. Injury risk - odd as it is to say, I expect in this case the pitcher to be less of an injury risk. 2. Cost to acquire - the Twins are not going to compete for a #1/Ace starter in free agency at $300MM+ price tag so locking up one you (may) have has to be the priority if you want to compete for a WS.

He should be willing to sign for something reasonable given his injury history, and his advisors should be pushing him to. Risk is too great he never can stay healthy enough and/or injuries sap his abilities. No need to risk *having* to work for the rest of your life when you can guarantee riches for your family (and their families) right now.

I think the player option that can be voided by the Twins for big money on an extension is the exact right way to go. From his perspective if he falters or gets hurt he can exercise it and get one more year of #3 type money, and at that point for the Twins it’s effectively a 1-year contract, which limits risk. If he performs well he gets money that sets him up for life, but is still well less than market value if he were testing free agency. And then he can do it again at 33.

Corner OF will be the most interesting position area to watch over the next 2 years, and perhaps as soon as the trade deadline this year. It would be so much easier if Larnach batted righty to keep him and Max as 4th outfielder/platoon. It feels like one of Kepler, Larnach or Kiriloff will end up getting traded. If we are after a big return it may need to be Kiriloff, but Max should also net a good return given his contract and it would help extend the Twins window with younger players controllable for more years. I expect Kepler to bounce back in 2021 in a big way. He didn't even have 50 AB vs Lefties last year and he showed in 2019 that the potential is there.

He seems like a guy with a “high floor” where he should be able to at least carve out a career at the back end of a rotation or in the bullpen. With a few adjustments and a little luck could go mid-rotation or higher. That’s really all you can reasonably hope for with a guy drafted where he was so it’s looking good.

Berrios taking the next step to becoming a Cy Young contender.

Great article and can’t wait for the season! But, “Garver's production when on the field during this stretch (.250/.331/.528, 8 HR, 34-to-10 K/BB, 0.8 fWAR) was solid...” .859 OPS from catcher = solid? Wow has he set the bar high.

I think you have to take 4 years of Snell. Helps you immensely this year and well beyond. I’m also trying to think of a reason to not take the Boyd trade. I’d probably do that too as he has, I think, 2 years after this one until free agency. Protects against losing Odo after this year and we aren’t giving anyone up that has a realistic chance to play a significant role on the Twins.

Lewis could be ready for that, but I doubt it happens. I think they’ll want him to settle in and become as good as he can be at one position - SS or CF - and not turn into a super-utility, which is what he becomes if he doesn’t get enough reps at his primary position. That said, how valuable could a “rich mans” Marwin Gonzalez actually be? If he could literally play anywhere on the diamond at average or above except C/P and be in the lineup every day, could that be worth more than being an average SS or excellent CF? Feels like that could be a money ball opportunity if you had the right player for it.

I’m sort of expecting one of Larnach or Kirilloff to have such a good year the Twins are compelled to have them up by September and on the postseason roster. May be as a bench bat for playoffs (bat for Buxton in close game?). Or could accelerate a trade of Rosario - though I’d rather see him get one last run with this team.

He would jump on 5 for 90M. Much different situation than Wheeler since Berrios has 3 years of team control remaining. An article from early Feb compared his situation to 3 recent signings and pegged a 5 year deal around 60M give or take. Personally I think he would still be a steal at 90M verses a free agent at that price, but no reason the Twins should need to go that high.

Perhaps Gordon is better suited to that super-utility role. He’s more of a SS than Arraez and I have to imagine would also fair average or better at 3B and corner outfield spots. Heck, may even be worthwhile seeing what he looks like as a back up CF for the (hopefully not) inevitable Buxton injury.

Seems like kind of the perfect situation to me. One or both of Rosario and Cruz is gone by 2021 and both for sure by 2022. Between Sano, Kiriloff, and Larnach you have guys for 1B, LF and DH. Kiriloff being the one to spell both Larnach and Sano in the field while getting time at DH. He can also give Kepler a day off periodically.

That’s ugly

I think Jiminy is on to the Twins thinking. At some point they will need to make room for the top prospects, both because payroll will climb too high and they are ready. If Buxton doesn’t sign by next offseason (or maybe this coming trade deadline) on a relatively team-friendly deal they have to move him as a key part of a package for a #1. Lewis may be ready to take over without a significant drop off, or Celestino may also be close if Lewis sticks at short. This makes keeping a proven commodity like Cave a priority as a young guy learns the ropes and adapts to MLB pitching.

It’s looking to me like Lewis eventually gets moved to CF. Buxton may not resign and in any event he is injury prone. Unless Lewis provides a significant upgrade to Polanco (hopeful, but seems unlikely) or they move Arraez for pitching and put Lewis at 2B I think CF may be where he ends up. In fact if Lewis has a good year at the plate I have confidence he could be the best option in CF if it became necessary to trade Buxton to get a #1 starter.

Wow! Incredibly encouraging signs. great post.

The guy I think keeps getting overlooked is Zack Littell. He’s not talked about as a lock for the bullpen, nor is he often listed as a young guy that has a chance to play an important role. Meanwhile, all he did since the beginning of June is put up a .88 ERA over 30 innings. Behind Rogers and Duffy I can see him as being the next most effective reliever.

Great move to maximize what we can get out of him this year. Also demonstrates they are in win-now mode and not worrying about service time considerations with a guy they know can help them win right now. Would not mind seeing him get some “opener” time early in the year while we wait on Pineda to return so he can get 2-3 inning stints on a regular schedule, and then later in the year a late inning bullpen role.

This team should have enough to be leading the division come July. I would not add another pitcher in the offseason and instead wait to see what they need and what is available. There may be guys on teams that currently think they are going to content this year that become available. This approach also let’s those other teams carry the injury risk through the first half of the season. How badly would it suck to give up our top prospects now only to have a Gray, Boyd or whomever blow out their elbow in April when we could have waited until closer to the deadline?

100% agree. Especially as it relates to making a trade. See how the season plays out, who is having a great season on a bad team, and go get him at the deadline. Save your prospects for that.