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That would be an incredible boost. If that happens Berrios / Romero / Gonsalves / Graterol & Wells could give is a great home grown rotation similar to what Cleveland fans have enjoyed of late. We are overdue for a break or two!

This one is hard to understand. It makes you think that something is in the works to move a few pieces. If not, what does the guy have to do?

I have no problem at all with how you represented Escobar's numbers, it was the way you manipulated Hosmer's track record where I have a problem. It would have made far more sense to use the previous 3 years, 4 years or 5 years. Instead, you separated his best year (the most current year and then used a 3 year period where he had two bad years with very good years before and after that period. In other words, instead of portraying the numbers as accurately as possible you elected to manipulate the numbers to look as bad as possible. The question of if Hosmer is a reasonable example is easily verified by looking at where he was rated among top free agents last year. You could also evaluate the comparison based on the contract Hosmer got and the projected contract for Escobar. Six months from now we can compare the actual contracts. They are not remotely close to comparable free agents.

Because he is much more valuable at 3B if he can play even close to average defensive with that cannon for arm. 1B is far easier to fill and we have waaaay more prospects that profile for 1B. Plus, if the reports are accurate, he is taking getting into shape seriously. He is a tremendous athlete that happens to be out of shape. How good could he be if he sheds 40 lbs. His value at 3B is worthy of further evaluation if he does in fact get in shape.

I have to admit ... I did not think there were ANY reasonable examples. However, if you manipulate the numbers, you can make a case for Hosmer. However, you chose a 3 year period which included 2 years when he was at his worst and had near zero WAR. You elected to position the numbers in a manner not reflective of recent history. For example, he had 7.8 fWAR the 3 years immediately proceeding his FA year and that included a very bad year of .2 FWAR. You could have also used the last 5 years where he averaged 2.14 WAR. He was also rated the 3rd best FA on the market my MLB Trade Rumors so manipulating of war aside, comparing Hosmer and Escobar makes little sense and the fact he received a $144M contract would suggest the league does not see them as anywhere near comparable.

We could not move him for an elite prospect. I think the probability changes when you go down a rung. I guess it depends on how you define not much.

We all love Escobar BUT IF the Twins get a good offer it would be wildly incompetent to hold on to him based on the strategy of making a qualifying offer. That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. If they want to keep him, they will make an appropriate offer in FA. Can anyone name a player with a career WAR under 1.5/season that has received a qualifying offer? How about under 2 WAR for the previous 3 seasons? The QA for Escobar is a terrible idea that can go wrong in too many ways. Trade him and then go sign him back this winter.

I think the odds are against it but I would try to position the team in a manner that provides flexibility, does not punt 2019, and does not leverage our future. Maybe Buck and Sano come back in August and tear it up. Not likely but it would certainly think that would impact how the FO approached next year in terms of FA signing and trades. At present Gibson is the toughest for me because he has been quite good since the middle of last year and losing him would likely be detrimental to next year. The offer needs to be good. Odorizzi is replaceable. The others being discussed are all free agents and holding on to them because it MIGHT give us a slightly better chance of signing them is a naive approach assuming any of the others net a decent prospect. If Sano / Buxton improve enough to warrant an aggressive approach, great. Perhaps others breakout. It sure seems like Kepler could and perhaps should. Garver has been good offensively of late. Cave has been a very nice surprise. Polanco looked fantastic for a considerable stretch last year and I am not going to assume it was PED induced. There are a number of SP and BP candidates to step up too. Point being there is plenty of upside but the plan should remain fluid until we figure out which players are part of the solution.

That's the crux of the problem. The singular focus on next year. That's what leads to the sentiment that it won't hurt you. Supervisory or even middle management is tasked with execution. Leadership, in this case the Chief Baseball Officer and GM are responsible for the long-term health of this organization. There is not a GM in this league that would give any serious consideration to trade for Realmuto at the expected price if they were in the Twins situation. Cmon, this team is a mess without the necessity of Buxton and Sano becoming elite and you are suggesting a "final piece" type move. To be fair it's a mess with potential. The SP and BP aside, what are the odds at this point Buxton and Sano become 5+ WAR players or whatever measure you want to use that would equate to them playing at the level necessary for the Twins to contend. We should trade away our best prospect for 2 years depending on both Buxton and Sano reaching their potential. That kind of decision making gets you fired when in a leadership position.

Is your answer really pursuing less effective practices for building a contender which trading for top talent happens to be, especially given the economic necessity for mid to small revenue teams to build from their farm systems. The answer is to get better a drafting, international signings, and trading from prospects. Basically, the way Cleveland has been built. To say it has not worked, therefore let's pursue a path everyone else has realized is far less effective is an outstandingly bad idea. Any plan to get a great player sounds exciting when your window to the world does not extend beyond next year. This team has a long list of needs in 2019 and it gets longer in 2020. The solution is not a player that is only under contract for two years, especially when that player will cost the elite prospects that could finally end the term of our mediocrity. This is a play with a low probability of success at the cost of likely extending us watching bad baseball for several years. Try asking if the Twins should trade (assuming a premium) for Realmuto (RIGHT NOW) on one of the Q&As you follow. Let's see what their take is on this move. You ask these questions frequently, let's get an outside perspective.

This is fantastic. It's great for getting an idea of how players are trending.

You make several good points. My position trading away prospects is based on many of the things you point out. I just think we should ride it out until at least this point next year before we do anything drastic.

When depends a lot on what happens with Buxton / Sano. I really want to be optimistic but realistically what is the probability they turn into the elite players we need them to contend. BTW contend (to me) does not mean for the central. Contend means a 50/50 shot at winning a playoff series. What percentage you and other TD followers put on them reaching this status. 50% seems generous. If we say 50%, the probability of both of them contributing at that level is 25%. I also have no interest in any approach that is focused on a 1-2 year window and requires we part with assets that are likely to extend the window for several years. I would be fine with keeping Gibson if we extend him or if we don't get an enticing offer. With Dozier, I am just not confident he with him going forward but I also have no idea what the minor league staff. Of course, he is a FA so I guess what we do short-term simply depends on the offer. Next question is what can we pull off in FA. We can't just sign whomever we want unless the overpay is just nuts which is always a bad idea. Players want to go to certain teams and the FA market is a mechanism for them to get the best offer they can on one of a handful of teams they want to play on. I disagree with the sentiment that we should just trade everyone if we don't believe Sano / Buxton will lead us to the promise land next year. Why do that today? Whats to be gained?

I hope they find a way to get better.

That's for sure. I have asked a few times to those of you who have said we MIGHT waste 2019 ... what's the rest of the plan. Are you really suggesting a move this costly be done without determining the viability of the other moves required. 2019 will be a waste with or without Realmuto without at least one more top of the rotation starter. I would assume the supporters know this. I assume they also know we have a sum total of one BP guy. It's also understood we need to replace Dozier who was arguably most valuable player on the team the past couple of years. As you have pointed out, we have a hole to fill at 1B and the FA mark is very weak. Would that not require a trade to fill as well? Escobar will be gone as well. Maybe it's just me but I have not seen anyone else address what we need to do to insure the cost associated with acquiring Realmuto is not a complete waste. I have also seen anyone address why now is better than the off-season other than this particular asset might not be available. So, we are not just talking about a considerable package for Realmuto. We would need to pony up big time for a SP given there are none available this winter in FA. We could get a 3B and move Sano to first so that is possible through FA. At a minimum, saving 2019 would require two monster packages which would take several of our top prospects. All of this to build a contender around two guys that have regressed to the point of being sent back to the minors. The only cost of waiting the rest of the year and being in a considerably better position to make such a decision is this particular asset probably won't be available. The cost, if all of these things don't come together is likely several more years of sucking. The benefit is elevating our chances of contention for the 19-20 seasons. The only way this makes any sense at all is if Buxton and Sano are playing at an elite level out of the gate in 2019. That's a long-shot as is putting together all of the rest of the pieces by the start of 2019 Given the cost of this plan (trading key prospects) and the relative lack of cost to take the rest of the year to evaluate Buxton / Sano as well as SP and BP prospects it would be flat out incompetent to trade for Realmuto or any similar asset today.

I did say we only have one good SP. I aid we have one good SP signed past next year. In other words, if we have any inclination to look beyond next year through this "window of contention" we will need to trade additional assets or the trade for Realmuto means little if we don't have the pitching to contend. There is a lot of work to do in the bullpen as well. Basically, you are trading away very valuable assets on the bet ...... Sano will straighten out his pitch recognition issues, stay healthy and get in reasonable shape. Buxton will hit above average for the position and stay healthy. One of the SP prospects steps up to at least a 3 next year. We can acquire another front of the rotation SP next year. We can pretty much rebuild the bullpen from the start of 2019. We can replace Mauer and Dozier next year.. This would be an extremely rare feat.

Thanks for that dose of reality. Let's take it a step further. Realmuto alone does not even get us close to the top teams. We have money for free agents but it has been pointed out the SP market is weak. What do we need to trade to get a front of the rotation SP. Are we going to get another guy with two years of control and go all-in for 2019-20 and then punt the next several years beyond 2020? Can we fill the BP holes, 1B, & 2B with our only FA dollars or do we need to trade even more prospects?

I don't have a clue RIGHT NOW what Buxton and Sano will do in 2019 and neither does anyone else with any reasonable degree of certainty. This is part of the point. It's a lost season but we have almost a half of the season left to see if they can turn it around. Not advocating to sign Realmuto or any other player requiring us to give up our best prospects at this moment is very far removed from “punting 2019. Most everyone who is an advocate suggests we are in a window of contention based on control of Buxton and Sano. I am suggesting that it does not make sense to trade key prospects to build a team around two players who are performing so badly they are in the minors. At a minimum take the rest of this lost season, make a more informed decision at the end of the season and act accordingly in the off season. Part of the difference in opinion here is some of the posters have indicated the goal is to win a weak central division. If that’s the goal, I can see the point. I have said before that I believe the goal should be to construct a team that’s on par with the top teams in the AL. In other words, a team that has a 50/50 shot of winning a playoff series. If the goal is to build an actual contender, I have seen nothing written here that indicates any of the trade for Realmuto supporters have considered what it would take to build a contender and what is the best path to that goal. We are on pace to win 75 games. Even if Buxton and Sano come back to be 5 WAR players and we add Realmuto, we are still not close to competitive with the 4 teams on pace to win 100 games and those teams are all built to be good for several years. What do we do about SP? We have one proven SP signed beyond 2019 and the existing staff is not going to be adequate to contend next year. Mike has pointed out the FA market for SP is weak. What would we have to give up to get a front of the rotation SP with 3+ years of control? Ops, we still need a whole lot of help in the BP. Oh, we are forgetting replacing Mauer and Dozier. So, what I am hearing is let’s push are chips in the middle because our window with Buxton and Sano is closing. First, we extended Mauer so it’s certainly not a forgone conclusion we would lose them both. Secondly, they are failing so spectacularly that they have been sent to the minor. Neither can stay healthy. We should ignore the fact that our SP is not nearly at the level of contention and we have one good SP signed beyond 2019. Let’s ignore the bullpen needs almost a complete overhaul. Let’s ignore we have to fill 1B and 2B. Someone will have to show me how we fill all of these holes, especially by opening day 2019. While you are at it, explain to be how a team of a 75 win pace with all of these issues is in a window of contention.

Fair enough ... Do you honestly think the wise path is a path that largely depends on Sano and Buxton being elite players. It would be one thing if they were building toward elite status in at the MLB level but they have both been sent back to the minors and Sano's conditioning alone could be reason to not bet on him long-term. This is also overly simplistic. Should we not also consider the fact we have one good SP signed past 2019 and a poor bullpen when considering pushing our chips in? I also don't agree that either we go all-in or start over. Without looking, I think we have 4 years of control after this year. Why can't we wait until this winter? Why not see how Buxton/Sano/Romero/Gonsales/Busenitz/Gordon, and the entire ML system look like at the end of the season. Why does this need to be decided today?

Mike, we just have very different ideas of management decision making principles. For starters, there is no such thing as perfect information but this team has absolutely crucial personnel that could not be more uncertain at this point. I would add that better developed information is the foundation to solid decision making. Therefore, I rigidly disagree with your position we will be less likely to succeed if we wait to get a better information. The "moving the goal posts" is a phrase used by many people, certainly not just you. The "movement" is a date, the principles driving the decision making process should remain the same. What I hear people saying is I am sick of waiting. While I can sympathize, the fact fans want it sooner than later is very poor decision criteria. The status of the team should dictate when to give up future assets to elevate the teams ability to win. You and many others, including local and national sportscasters have pointed toward Buxton and Sano being crucial. Well, they could not be further from carrying this team. Therefore, betting the future on them today is incredibly bad management. At a minimum, the FO should wait for Buxton and Sano to demonstrate they can be effective at the major league level and that's still a long way from demonstrating they play at the level needed to make us contenders. We Have one reliable starter signed past next year and our bullpen is not close to that of a contender. Our young core has not developed but many fans want us to proceed as if they have. There is not a credible argument (IMO) this team is at a point it should be making this type of move. At a minimum, it would make sense to evaluate Buxton, Sano, and several prospects the remainder of the year. Then, while presumably in a much better informed state, reconstruct the 2019 roster.

There is also the small issue of about $100M additional revenue for the cubs and $150M for Boston. Houston or Cleveland are far better models to examine unless you don't believe revenue matters. Boston could spend the Twins budget and have enough left over to sign 6 Lester equivelents. Houston had a core far deeper and far more proven. Cleveland's moves were trading for guys while they were still prospects and extending a couple key guys.

I understand your focus and many others is next year. My focus is building a sustainable winner. The two are generally not the same which at least in part probably highlights our difference in opinion. I have had a front row seat in observing dozens of organization being derailed or marginalized by short-term focus. I often don't reply in the kindest of manners to this focus because 20 years of watching it fail (sometimes spectacularly) tends to form a firm opinion of such practices. You are correct that Mauer is not the solution. I thought I was clear that was a fall back position. Are you against signing one of the 3B free agents and moving Sano to 1B? Obviously, this scenario changes if Sano works his butt off to get in shape and turns things around offensively by the end of the year.

You have a point if the assumption is that we have to spend all of the available payroll immediately. The nature of strategic planning is long-term and specifically where assets are concerned the assessment should match the life of the assets. I assumed the dollars would get spent over the next couple of years unless the FO is willing and successful in pursuing Machado. We have many unanswered questions which include a number of pitching prospects that really should be auditioned next year. It would not be wise to commit all of the available dollars yet. There are a number of 3B prospects and it might make sense to move Sano to 1B. I would prefer a 245lbs version of Sano shows up for spring training and his approach / pitch recognition improves significantly but the depth of FA 3B might make that option a good one. If Sano flops, we have other options at 1B. It also would not be horrible to bring Mauer back on a 1 year deal if he is willing. We could also spend on the BP. We all know spending on the BP in free agency is risky but one legit late inning guy would be a nice add.

This makes faaaaar more sense to me, especially given we have 60M+ in payroll coming off the books. 1B is another chance in FA to upgrade our offense. The rest of the available payroll budget could get spent on SP and BP.

If you define a window as a possibility of winning the Central, yes, I would say there is a possibility in the next couple of years. If a window means being an actual contender, no, we are not in a window until the many things that need to get addressed are improved. We would be 20 games back in the east or west. Competing with the real contenders would require considerably better starting pitching, an overhaul of the bullpen, replacing Dozier at 2B, replacing Mauer at 1B, not to mention any hope of contending would require Buxton and Sano to both sustain a level of play they have shown at times but they have not shown a glimpse of that play this year. Oh and catcher too. Trading long-term assets in order to have Realmuto for 2019-20 is a horrendously poor plan. If the team does not sort all of these problems you have given away the guys most likely to help the team when this does get sorted out. If it does somehow all go our way .... FANTASTIC, there will always be players that can be added by trading away great prospects. At least at that point we will know with much greater precision what we need to add. The cubs traded away Samardzija when they were on the brink. Why, because 6 years of Russel is waaaay better when you have not quite arrived but are expecting to contend soon. I bet Arizona wish they had not traded away Swanson before they were ready. Short-term focus is a good way to really suck long-term.