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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Oh no! Too many all-star short stops on dirt cheap contracts! Whatever will we do?
  2. This! Unless you have Joe Mauer, churn and burn catchers like relievers.
  3. What’s the bigger impact, doing one thing well 120 times per game, or one thing bad once per game? stepping over dollars to pickup pennies is no way to get rich.
  4. There’s 30 teams. 11th youngest is middle third, median, average. They are average in age in MLB, not young. they currently have many expiring contracts and are on the cusp of reducing payroll further in 2024, that are the top 6 age players on the team. Kepler, Gray, Maeda, all expire after 23, and Polanco has a vesting option at 550 plate appearances. Garlick and Megill are year to year.
  5. Winter must be agonizing for you. Speculation is all we got during the hot stove season!
  6. I think some of the discussion needs to be “to what extent do you believe injuries will repeat themselves?”. if you think lesser extent, this is already a well rounded very good hitting team with 3-4 very good starting pitchers and 2-4 very good relievers, and are just a few key components away from really competing. if you think to a greater extent, there might need some additional higher quality players required. I tend to fall a bit towards the lesser on the hitter side. Sure Buxton is going to get banged up, but the corner OF have good depth, Celestino has a ton of potential as a strong backup, outside of SS there’s quality players to start day 1, and depth around the infield except Catcher, where there’s 2 year out depth, but very thin in ‘22. I don’t think Lewis will be ready until late in the year, and of any position in baseball, SS is THE place to have a star. pitching I think to greater, but the options for starting free agents don’t help, and don’t improve over Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Mahle. That’s 4 pitchers who are all very good 2-3 types. None of them are Game 1 WS types, all are game 2/3 types. Rodon is a game type but is an injury risk that I’d be all-in on for the right contract, but doesn’t look like that’s happening. Relievers, I’d rather convert fringe minor league starters and churn ‘n burn, than commit free agency contracts. Volume at reliever over pinpoint accuracy.
  7. Pohlad companies had an ownership stake in FSN (going back to the MSC days) that I assume they retained through the Sinclair transition. I believe the cruddy TV deal doesn’t bring the full Pohlad view into scope because different parts of their companies have the stake. I believe Joe coming from media may have had something to do w/ the FSN ownership management.
  8. Wow! It’s rough being super-rich! Thanks for sharing!
  9. Player contracts are like “capital expenditure” but they aren’t depreciable assets in the taxation sense. They’re just expenses.
  10. At 3.5% inflation (real inflation over the last decade including recent short term spike is 3.1%) 25m today is $17m in 2034. If todays inflation persists a decade, our global economy will collapse and we’ll all revert to a Mad Max distopia. whether MLB salaries follow their current growth trend, I’m not smart enough to forecast, but I gotta think the P&L of the owners will necessitate slowing growth at some point. I think a good comparison is Capital Expenditure (which does fall under equity once it’s paid for). It’s the reinvestment back into the business that is best paid for by your cash flow, rather than more expensive financing options like stock issuance or debt. Also keep in mind that both parties know that the payback period on the capital expenditure exceeds the useful life of the asset. Bogaerts knows he won’t be an all star SS, and probably not a SS, maybe not in the MLB in 2034, and so does SD. The payback period assumes higher revenue in the future to facilitate today’s spend.
  11. MLB, Amazon Apple, or Disney maybe? Traditional cable networks are probably out the window, but the MLB is still very lucrative. In terms of the OP, DSP dropped hints in August that the team might reduce payroll this off-season. My guess is they have a targeted list, and if they don’t succeed, internal options rather than plan B free agents. Edit to add, agreed with Mike, there’s probably 2 relief Pitchers, Catcher, Correa at SS, an outfielder, maybe a Starting Pitcher. If they can sign or trade for their specific targets, they’ll do it, if they can’t, internal options are they way they go
  12. Right, and negotiation with Bogaerts and having Farmer already on the team can give the Twins some leverage on the negotiation w/ C4. Something like: ”look, we’d rather sign you, but if we can’t figure this out, we’ll go w/Bogaerts that we are close on a deal with”.
  13. For a real ace starting pitcher, no one is off the table (if the total package price is right). I’d totally trade Arraez plus for Woodruff or Burnes.
  14. It would be awesome if the Twins could hire Castro as a coach/analyst. His experience would be a great asset in bringing context of the data to the players!
  15. That seems pretty obvious that the best and youngest SS in the free agent market is the highest priority.
  16. I do LOVE spring training! I’m sad I won’t be going this spring :(
  17. It’s fair, it’s also fair to leave him out. The further away from the Terry Ryan era, especially the second one, the more I believe that TR was as responsible for the “cheap Pohlads” meme as the Pohlads were. It could have been the real prize was the $50k.
  18. I think the Twins could and should sign Rodon, regardless if the market comes in stronger than estimated. With as low of payroll as they have right now, if they don’t sign a big name, big contract, front of the rotation starter, they never will. my guess is “never will”, but my hope is this is the year
  19. What’s his favorite flavor of Go-Gurt? Glo-Gurt? Dunkaroos? Strawberry Banbana? Mixed Berry? what temperature? Frozen? Refrigerated? Room temperature? the options are endless!
  20. Wow! That is a shocker! it would be great if the Twins could pull off a trade, but I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around what that offer might be
  21. I’d rather see Larnach, Gordon and Wallner man the Corner OF spots than Kepler, but I’m not exactly convinced Wallner is ready or Gordon has really turned a corner hitting (though health improvement seems legit) or that Larnach and Kirilloff can be healthy for a season. im not asking for a platoon hitter in the OF, I want a better hitting RF (who hits righty if possible). I think a good hitting every day RF would make a world of difference. Maybe Gordon or Wallner could be that guy, but lots of risk for 23. Haniger can hit and field well enough to be that guy, but you’ve changed my opinion on whether he “should be” that guy with the injury history.
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