PatPfund

I'm glad for Gilberto that he'll get a chance to develop in the minors this year. I'm also glad for myself that I won't have to watch him in a Twins uniform. I get why he was jumped to the majors. I (and everyone else) saw he clearly was in over his head. Last year was disappointing because the Twins essentially did little prep for another Byron injury, and because Celestino was still clearly in over his head. His defense is okay, not great. He still struggles with fundamentals like where to throw the ball, and how to run bases. He gets the least out of his speed of any fast guy I've seen in recent times. And little of that is out of his control; he should have a better grip on the game by 24. Maybe he gets better, and earns his way back. Or maybe players like Martin, Lee, and Lewis, who are all better offensive threats, push Gilberto aside on their march to the majors (they can't all play infield), and he never makes it back to Mpls as his home field. I honestly don't know which it will be, but I'd lean a bit toward the last option. (If Martin has to have Tommy John surgery, that might be Gilberto's biggest break.)

The Twins are not an "ace" away from a title. And an "ace" is no guarantee of success; just look at your list, and see how few titles are held by those pitchers. Burnes is a great pitcher, but he is controllable for 2 years, and then is gone. How about we play the year, and see where we are at mid-season before we throw away assets we may need to actually get good. Maybe we'll find out we already have an ace on staff.

Agree strongly with @mikelink45. RP may be his better stuff, and there have been some flashes, but I'm not convinced Sands is MLB-quality at all, or maybe he is on a lower level team than I'd like the Twins to be. If Sands has a great spring, I'd totally be working the trade circuit for him.

The question you have at the top is really THE question. And we don't know the answer yet, and really won't without gameplay; a 14 inning cherry-picked stretch is a nice but very slender reed of encouragement. I also saw him strike out the side one inning last year, then get pulled after walking the bases full the next, and that wildness won't play long in high-leverage settings. I'm hoping he figured something out (trust him more than Megill and Pagán, but that is a super-low bar), but I'm also not holding my breath, and wouldn't be surprised to see him riding the Green Line a few times this summer.

In theory, I love Winder as a starting pitcher. He looked far better in that role last year than Bundy or Archer, but then the shoulder flared up again, and then again in the off-season. He may have a future as a starter, but right now the Twins are pretty deep in SPs, and Winder should try limited innings to both get and keep himself healthy for a season. He also really needs to be of use soon or the Twins are going to be forced to trade-low/waive/lose Winder before or during the next Rule 5 draft. So for this year, I'd try to build him as an RP, because there are a few iffy pieces in the 'pen (yeah, I'm looking at you Megill, Pagán, and Moran). (Dobnak could be a dark horse to supplant somebody as well.)

I got a big laugh out of the theme song, especially after the mini-cliffhanger 'di- ah- (where is he going?!?!) rees' (phew!). If Martin can field like that at 2nd on a regular basis, I'm very intrigued. I'm not coincidentally concerned about one of my favorite Twins, Polanco. After Buxton last year, I believe pretty much nothing the Twins say about injuries (Byron was clearly hurt all year, and the coverup did nothing but buy him crap from fans, and ended with him having surgery. On the knee that was hurt all year.) Given my decades of experience with balky body parts, if Polanco is still limited by his knee after almost enough time off to recover from ACL surgery, it reeks of an ongoing issue for the coming season. And despite his totally undeserved reputation for not getting hurt, Jorge has repeatedly been hurt (he just stayed off the IL), and the injuries have hobbled his output. We'll need a backup 2B, and Martin looks plausible. Miranda's shoulder is also concerning (especially if he is playing in the WBC), and having Farmer/Solano/Gordon to help might work after all. (Otherwise, it seems like we have one too many "Swiss Army Knives".

I try not to be a hater, but, yeah, I hate the new vague injury language. Larnach has a 'lower body injury' and that might indeed be concerning. A pulled hip flexor, a ruptured hamstring, a torn ACL, a fractured femur, a broken toe, a damaged Achilles, and a dislocated ankle could all be called 'lower body injuries'. So could a hangnail, bunyons, regular sore muscles, or a leg bruise. On the words/video front, I prefer words by far. But getting a few videos that give a little extra taste of Spring Training to my wintry eyes and ears is a nice addition.

I freakin' love the pitch clock, and really like that it has ended a game already. Don't want to see much of that in the regular season, so work it all out in Spring Training. But either way, it needs to be called for real now, and in the regular season, because the worst case scenario is umpires making up when they'll enforce the rules and when they will not. (I'm also going to laugh hard every time I hear a player getting pissy about the new rules. Absolute total payback for the frustration they've inflicted on all of the fans of the game in the past decade.) Other thoughts... A. It was really fun to watch baseball again, and Miranda looked great. B. Ryan looked fine (and also as if he was working on stuff, which is as it should be). C. Headrick was kinda dominant, and against a lot of starters; keep hearing about the pitching pipeline, and it's a good sign one of our AA pitchers looks this good this early. D. It was fun to see Julien and Lee in Twins' uniforms.

Hopefully this is just signing a professional arm to eat ST innings until either (most likely) the SPs have boosted their pitch counts, and/or (less likely) lightening strikes on the control front and the Twins uncover a hidden gem. Also hopefully they aren't counting on the latter. If mediocre early ST castoffs can walk on to our 26-man roster, our bullpen is officially a mess. (Which it isn't. Megill was bad today, but he's always been that way despite the velocity. Never really considered him or Moran to be the bullpen locks others have talked up, but I also think there are enough arms to push them off the roster if they can't find the plate.)

Baseball is hard. A couple overall #1s never made it to MLB. Prospects stall, and get hurt. We've definitely had our share, but in case this fuels some to think we should trade all prospects for 'sure thing' veterans, remember Kirby. Or Montas. Or Mahle (though I have hopes for this year). Given our budget realities (this just in: big market teams rake huge media coin, while the Twins TV broadcaster is due to declare bankruptcy), we need the core of our team to be younger, salary controllable players, and the best way to get those is to draft them (or be awful, and stock up at the trading deadline). So I'm focusing on the end-article optimism.

I'd say "no" to Lee/Raya for Burnes. Not because Burnes isn't good enough, but because the Twins haven't shown they are good enough yet, and Burnes won't likely fuel "a run" because he'll probably bolt via Free Agency. It's spring, and people are gaga with hope, but this team finished 14 games back in a weak division last year, two presumed starters (Kepler and Gallo) are coming off horrible years, the hoped-for middle order bats at the corners (Miranda and Kirilloff) have maybe a combined season of experience, and several SPs have both injury-recovery questions, and are on expiring contracts. As you say, mid-season is a better assessment time, but getting Burnes there would probably mean outbidding every playoff contender in baseball. I'd rather keep building this year, maybe win the division and a playoff game, and come back even better next year (very possibly with Lee in the lineup).

Nice to hear that Molitor is helping with the base-running. No doubt last year's debacle was magnified by all of the not-quite-ready-for-MLB players who cycled through the roster because of injuries, but their base-running reflected really badly on the organization, and frankly the major league staff (because Sano in his brief time, and Celestino across the season were two major culprits).

I'd assume Polanco backup; I hope for not much more than the minimum, and mostly as an innings eater in camp. But it doesn't do much for me. There are plenty of interesting players to get innings at 2nd in camp (Julien, Gordon, Farmer off the top of my head). The idea of keeping Solano instead of Gordon is pretty revolting. One is a first round pick still exploring his upside, the other is clearly sinking below Gordon's floor, plus Gordon is out of options, and would absolutely be claimed in waivers (he could start in the outfield for several teams such as the Tigers). Keeping him instead of Larnach isn't much better; plus this team needs to stop blocking its developing players with rusty junk from the salvage yard. The only way it makes sense is if they think Polanco might be on the IL at season's start. (Which I guess is possible if he's still gimping on it after 9 months.)

It is a worthy idea, but my guess is that Royce would rather play the season betting on himself, then maybe look into something similar afterward (but if his bet comes in, bigger annual numbers, and maybe no team options at the end, or the proverbial "mutual option" that never gets exercised).

Well... the Twins didn't really sit Buxton "when he was healthy" last year. He injured his knee early, then played hurt until they shut him down and he had knee surgery. To fix the knee he hurt months earlier. It would have been nice if they'd been more honest about it, and frankly it would have been nice if Buxton had gotten the surgery in May, and been recovered for the last 2-3 months of the year. But none of that happened. So, yeah, play him when he is healthy, but he wasn't most of last year. And... outside of getting hit on the hand by a pitch, most of Byron's injuries don't seem fluky. He runs faster than most humans on Earth, so he puts more stress on his joints, and when he hits the ground or walls diving or sliding, he hits a lot harder than other players. I hope he can stay healthy, or at least healthier, but I'm glad the Twins came up with a better backup plan than In-Over-His-Head Celestino.

If he isn't substantially better, he shouldn't go north with the team. I think Ober either makes the 5-man rotation, or goes to St Paul to stay in starter mode as the first call-up. But Winder's repeated shoulder issues as a starter may mean the Twins try him in relief, and he'd be far better than we've seen from Megill. If Alcala looks healthy this spring, I'd be trying to flip Megill to a KC/Detroit type team for a prospect.

I think they have the makings of a solid 'pen if it isn't overused. But it seems the rose-colored glasses might have been worn too much here, though. Thielbar had a great (fabulous) second half, but the first half was pretty rough (he entered July with an ERA over 5, and no it wasn't all April), and he's in the back half of his 30s. Trevor Megill may have been unlucky, or he just might be one of the pitchers whose FIP (which is a bit of analytics more than a real stat) never syncs up with his ERA. Griffin Jax was prone to getting thumped when overused. But I guess what I like about the 'pen and the whole pitching staff is that they are far deeper in the rotation, and that means more quality arms pushed back to help elsewhere, because at least two of the pitchers you mention are likely to melt down at some point or get hurt, or both. And probably more than two. But the help in St Paul should be much better than recent years.

Your bullpen is super heavy on arms tossing mostly one (maybe two) innings. Winder is flat out better than Megill, and he can go three to five twice a week with no sweat while letting Ober stay stretched out in the minors. I'd also be surprised if Moran sticks in the majors most of the year. He is totally a whiff three one inning/walk four the next. (I'm glad we have options this year.)

I think the rotation actually makes the bullpen stronger in two ways. One you covered (more starter innings means fewer 'pen innings meaning fresher arms). The other is that really good arms that were filling starting last year are potential bullpen material. Winder and Ober are actually good, and if they aren't starting, they probably can be better than Griffen Jax was last year (and that was pretty great when he wasn't over-used).

I like Caleb, and love his story. But... ...he didn't have a great season last year; he had a phenomenal 2nd half of the season. You have a tweet with the post-July stats, but in April (really awful), May (very good), and June (pretty bad), Caleb pitched 29 innings, walked 13, gave up 26 hits, and 17 runs for a mediocre 1.34 WHIP, and an ERA over 5. It was clear either he or Duffey had to go to make room for new pitching, and the Twins definitely made the right call, but it wasn't obvious. Short of injury, Thielbar might be the most 'counted on' Twin to falter big time; he operates on a thin margin, and age comes for all athletes at some point. (But I'm hoping 'that point' isn't this year.)

I've read stuff from this writer that I liked, but this seems a hot mess. Were the 2019 Twins over-rated? By whom? What was this over-rating? The team won 101 games. 101 games. They beat up on their division, but to win 101 you also have to beat other good teams, and they did. Like many other good teams they faltered in the playoffs (and like many who falter they didn't have great pitching and stopped hitting in the clutch). Then there is the weird 'sustained' tangent, which frankly makes no sense to the argument of rating a specific season's team. (Also very little sense in context of baseball history; the '91 Twins followed a last place team, won it all, then quickly devolved into a lost decade. Does that make the '91 team over-rated?) It also has almost zero internal logic since as pointed out, many of the part-timers were not even contributing in the end, and frankly were tangential to the whole Bomba thing anyway. Of all of the 'one year' players, only Cruz (who wasn't actually a one-year player since he had a team option) hit over 30 HR. The other four who hit 30+ were all young Twins' regulars (Sanó, Rosario, Garver, Kepler). That is "sustainable" by any stretch of the imagination unless the young players all regressed (which, sadly, they did, though Rosario had his Series moments winning a title elsewhere). The problem here isn't fans being blinded by nostalgia, but a writer using hindsight to tell us a talented team (with inadequate pitching) didn't win the title, and didn't last. I'm pretty sure we all knew that before reading this. But regardless of the article, the 2019 Twins WERE one of the most serious contending teams of recent history, and one of the best regular season teams in the franchise's history with the strongest of all stats to back it up. Wins. 101 of them.

This is the sort of article that makes me LONG for players to report to spring training (along with the stuff about how players will fit in team history or how this season's team fits in team history when we haven't seen a live pitch yet). But... ... to dispute the article, you cannot look up meaningful information on Miranda's defense at 1st or 3rd in MLB (on Google or anywhere else), because he has only played a fraction of a season; his rookie season being put in a fairly new position most of the time, and filling in occasionally at third. His minor league history shows he might be a decent if not great defender; it for sure shows he can excel at the plate playing third (see his 2021 batting stats). If you want to get all metric, don't forget that most defensive metrics rated Gio well below average. Plus, this just in, players often get better as they gain experience. Every spring training (at least in my lifetime) features stories about players who worked on their diets and fitness routines to get better, stronger, and have the ability to maintain performance through the year. Actual performance varies, and until we see Miranda playing we won't know if a) it is true, b) it hurts/helps, or c) we can't be sure. But we can at least know that Miranda himself was worried about wearing down last year (borne out statistically), and (maybe) has done something about it. Most elite athletes at some point realize they have to take care of themselves to max out, so I see this as promising until there is evidence to the contrary. (Correa may be setting the example here as Cruz did before, and both of those players did/are doing pretty well with a better diet and workout regime.) I loved Gio, but he is gone, and I get the strategy, especially with Correa signed. We have a multitude of top prospects who right now play infield, are already or soon will be on the 40-man, and therefore need to be final-polished/played/written down/traded. And having solid, but at their ceiling infield veterans blocking them starts to be a hindrance. (I feel the same about Gallo if he just plays career average this year.)

I generally like your lineups, though I'd bat Polanco 1st since (if healthy) he'd likely force more pitches early, and be a base stealing threat (pretty sure Byron is going to be grounded, and Carlos doesn't run any more). You probably have the middle okay, but if Kirilloff is playing, he probably is healthy and will force his way past Gallo and Kepler, and even early I'd never bat him below Jeffers (even against a righty).

One upside to the depth (especially if the players perform and stay healthy) is that it may set us up for an interesting trade deadline. But first we have to stay healthy and perform so we aren't just selling for the future in July.

The two are not ‘carbon copies’ at all. (see last year stats from baseball-reference below) Michael Taylor is a below average hitter, Gilberto is worse. Worse average, lower counting stats, a quarter of the HR, lower OPS+, and sadly an often faulty baseball IQ. Defensively they are not even close. Michael A Taylor is one of the very top CFs in baseball. Period. Celestino has some physical skills often negated by foolish plays in the field and on the bases. Some excel when called up early from the minors, Celestino did not, and needs more AAA development at the very least. And if he doesn’t shape up quickly, I can see him being bypassed as soon as this year by Martin, Lewis, and maybe Lee. Michael A Taylor World Series title, past Gold Glove winner, leads all OF in defensive runs save over the last 3 seasons. 2022 line from baseball-reference.com 3.2 WAR, .254 avg, 9 HR, 49 R, 43 RBI, 90 OPS+ Gilberto Celestino No Gold Gloves, sometimes not sure where to throw ball 2022 line from baseball-reference.com .3 WAR, .238 avg, 2 HR, 30 R, 24 RBI, 80 OPS+