Physics Guy

5/8: 9-1 over Toronto, not needed 5/10: 6-0 over Detroit, not needed 5/11: 1st game, 5-3 loss, warming up in 8th, Twins tie but don't go ahead, bring in Hildy who gives up 2 5/11: 2nd game, 8-3 over Detroit, Twins cruised after the fifth, not needed 5/12: 5-3 loss to Detroit, managed 3 in bottom of 7th to narrow gap, no need to bring in Rogers You worry too much. Rogers and Hildy have been used plenty. Give them a break when possible.

Are you by chance a Packer fan? That's the only way I can understand the A's at the top.

It's not as hard as you might think given Marwin's versatility. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/324/entry-11389-getting-gonzalez-ab/

Yes, Cave is the better player because of the defensive abilities he brings over Austin, but their hitting stats are similar: Cave 283 AB 18BB 102 K .265/.313/.473 Austin 244 AB 19 BB 95 K .232/.287/.480 Austin also has a stronger track record in the minors. With the proclaimed intention to get Gonzalez 500 PA, that makes him the top sub in the OF. This means Cave gets most of his AB as a PH and occasional OF. I would argue that good teams have depth ready to step in when needed. I want Cave playing every day, same with Astudillo. Austin profiles well in the role he would have on this lineup as a PH/occasional DH/1B. I would have no problem whatsoever with Cave as the 12th man, it's just not what I prefer. We will just have to agree to disagree. I don't think it makes much difference either way.

Here is my view: http://twinsdaily.com/blog/324/entry-11389-getting-gonzalez-ab/

When rumors started floating around last week about the Twins' interest in Marwin Gonzalez, I found myself quite surprised. While I still contend that the Twins would be better off spending said money on Keuchel or Kimbrel if they would sign a two or three year contract, it is hard to find fault in adding another above average bat for the lineup. My concern now is how do the Twins find 500 AB for Gonzalez when all of the starting positions are essentially spoken for. I did some digging and believe it can be done without sacrificing continued development of our younger players. Let's start with the assumption that the following players will hold down starting positions followed by the number of plate appearances I would project them to get this coming season. C - Garver, Castro - 650 1B - Cron - 550 2B - Schoop - 550 SS - Polanco - 600 3B - Sano - 550 LF - Rosario - 600 CF - Buxton - 550 RF - Kepler - 600 DH - Cruz - 550 This totals up to 5200 PA for the starters. Last season the Twins tallied a little over 6100 PA not including those taken by pitchers. That leaves 900 PA for the bench. The 650 PA for the catchers is approximately what they totaled for the team last year. Since Gonzalez can essentially sub for any of those positions, I think it is easy to see that he can get to 500 plate appearances this year. Baldelli will need to be creative and use Gonzalez as a true super utility player. Looking at the projected PA, Gonzalez would need to account mostly for PA at 1B, 2B, 3B and OF. I will guess that he will play 3B the most (with Sano slotting in to take away some PA from Cron) followed closely by OF, then 2B and SS. I doubt they will actually play him at 1B much as I would guess that Gonzalez is a better 3B than Sano. If Gonzalez can perform with the bat near past levels while moving around this much it would be of great benefit to the Twins. They can keep players healthy with roughly a game off once every one or two weeks. Adding Gonzalez puts the Twins at 11 position players with the 10 above. The Twins are likely to have 13 pitchers and 12 hitters on their roster. Since Astudillo and Cave both have options, it is likely they start in AAA. In order to get to 500 PA, Gonzalez will need to be the primary sub for the OF so Cave should be in AAA. I like both Cave and Astudillo, but having options dooms them to AAA. That leaves Austin and Adrianza for the final spot. Maybe the Twins keep both at the start of the season and only have 12 pitchers, but it is likely one will hit waivers at some point. My choice would be to keep Austin as a bat off the bench, especially since we have Torreyes likely at AAA as a fallback in case we lost Adrianza on waivers. If Adrianza doesn't get claimed, the Twins have solid depth at AAA in case of injuries, possibly better depth than we've had in some time. The more I look at this signing, the more I like it. Now find a way to sign Keuchel or Kimbrel.

The opener should definitely not be used with Berrios and Gibson. Maybe not with Odorizzi at the beginning, but certainly if he continues to show he can't get through 6 innings. We don't know enough about Pineda at this point. Perez is certainly a candidate. I can't see 4 out of 6 days. Kirilloff should not see the major league roster on this team unless we have a significant injury in the OF or Buxton fails miserably. Otherwise, I can't see the need to bring him up. Mid-May of 2020 is fine by me.

I also wonder if you play matchups. If Odorizzi would normally be the starter, but the team we are facing has a strong LH top of the lineup, open with Mejia or Rogers. I think Mejia could be a strong two inning "opener", especially against a LH hitting lineup.

This is a big reason why I feel we should extend Gibson. There are probably a half dozen SP on the FA market I would want next year besides Gibson. Gibson is a known quantity and was #12 in WAR for SP last year in the American league. No brainer IMO. They should also try to sign whoever is best among Pineda and Odorizzi at the end of the season, assuming they don't both suck. Doesn't the current team have an exclusive negotiating window?

I'd offer Gibson 3yrs at $30-36M. Lance Lynn signed one of the few 3yr (30M) contracts this offseason. He had produced more than Gibson career-wise, but they are on opposite ends of the pendulum swing with Gibson being much better the past 1.5 yrs. The FA market has some talent available in Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale at the top, followed by Verlander (37yrs old), Bumgarner and Porcello. I'm not sure the Twins would be in on any of those. Zack Wheeler was a younger player (30) who should interest the Twins. Most of the FA starters are Gibson's age or older. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/2019-20-mlb-free-agents.html Berrios is the only other one that interests me. He is the most likely bet to maintain his performance IMO. Get him to sign a five year contract to buy out this year, 3 years of arbitration and one year of FA. Might have to overpay a bit, but it would give him financial security and FA for his age 30 season. Sano and Buxton are a no at this point. Their range of possibilities is far to great to extend them. Talk to me again after the season. Rosario and Kepler both have issues. 2nd half 2017 and 1st half 2018 Rosario is an All-Star, but second half he had a .622 OPS. I think he has plateaued. Kepler has the opposite problem, he is maddeningly consistent (3 yrs 95 or 96 OPS+ in a row) and hasn't taken the next step. I wouldn't extend either with Cave, Wade, Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach all potential replacements. I would be interested in Polanco after this season if he can produce a full season at or near .800 OPS. I still think he ends up at 2B and would love to see one of Lewis, Javier or Gordon push him over there.

You should really look up the definition of elastic vs in elastic collisions.

Nope, very much an inelastic collision. I believe muscle does actually help with absorbing blows, such as a collision with a wall.

I would think this is pretty accurate.

Or Chargois or Burdi or...

Here's the rub though, how does Gibson respond to an extension for Odorizzi and not himself?

Yep, this is pretty much where I am at and don't understand paying Cruz big $$. have them platoon with Cave playing some in the OF and either Kepler or Rosario taking a turn at DH.

First off, I am intrigued by Cave and do want him to get more AB this year if he earns them. His numbers have a SSS feel to them and there are a couple of concerning things about his output last year. His .363 BABIP last year reminds me a bit of 2014 Danny Santana and his 5.8%BB vs 33% K is a little concerning. Meanwhile, Kepler had a career-low BABIP of .236 which smacks of a bit of bad luck. Kepler has 1600 AB in the majors (9.8%BB, 18.7% K), much of them while Cave was still in the minors. They are essentially the same age and Kepler has a longer track record. Kepler had a .745 OPS vs LH last year vs .642 for Cave. If this is about performance, Kepler should bat against lefties more than Cave. Kepler did a good job of improving his platoon splits last year. If he can get his OPS vs RH back up to career avg that puts him around .768 overall, which in not subpar (which he barely is overall for his career).

I'm not opposed to having Kepler play some 1B, although he is arguably the best OF after Buxton. In the same vein as your proposal, you can use Cave/Rosario at DH as a LH option as well. I think the key here is versatility, so I am certainly in favor of letting Kepler play some 1B when it makes sense.

Why has it been up to Sano and Buxton for four years? Four years ago at this time they hadn't even debuted in the major leagues. I'm not sure I understand what you mean by neutral observers. I used Fangraphs projected WAR for 2019 (with some minor adjustments on my part). The four players you mention are projected at 8.3 WAR on Fangraphs, I estimated a little higher at 8.9. I don't have any of them having "big" years. Most of my estimates are within a decimal point or two of Fangraphs, usually I am higher if they have a track record of better or are still young enough to expect improvement. I read your post and using last year's numbers aren't realistic in my opinion. For example, it's easy to project Polanco at 2.5 when he earned 1.3 last year in half a season. I guess the purpose of my original post was to bring some positivity to what the Twins have done, even if it isn't what I had hoped they would. If you chose not to see it that way, that is your choice. I think there are reasons to think with a little bit of positive luck this year, as opposed to what happened last year, the Twins could be in the hunt for the playoffs. If that is the case, then I would hope next year's offseason could look significantly different. I would even argue that it might lead to a deadline deal for a Verlander type deal that the Astros pulled off two seasons ago. I don't blame the FO for not "going for it" when they have significant questions that need to be answered.

I agree that finding 3 starters in one offseason is daunting, but isn't it likely the Twins would want to extend Gibson before the season or sign him as a FA if he has another solid year?

To say that the Twins have been inactive this offseason would not be accurate. In fact, Jim Bowden of The Athletic recently gave the Twins a B- for their offseason moves thus far. No other team in the AL Central received higher than a C. While their moves have filled some of the gaps they have, I have been frustrated by the lack of a big move. Falvey and Levine clearly did not read my 2019 Blueprint. After much thought, I am starting to warm up to the Twins offseason decisions. They have added players with the potential to improve the Twins run-producing ability in CJ Cron and Jonathon Schoop. Each player fills a need on the team, both have 30 HR potential and neither limits future moves from a financial perspective. Schoop clearly had a down season last year, but I would happily take an average of his previous three. The reason for my shift in opinion is tied to WAR. In looking at last year's results, it appears that a team needs to be in the 40+ range for team WAR to be a contender for the playoffs. The moves made by the Twins front office thus far are inching the needle closer all the time. Looking at previous seasons and using predicted WAR for 2019 on Fangraphs, I made what I believe to be reasonable estimates for the Twins in 2019. This comes with the assumption that the Twins will add two more arms to the bullpen. For this exercise I have chosen Joakim Soria and Kelvin Herrera, which seems about right for the Twins. Hitters: Castro/Garver - combined they should be able to produce 2.0 Cron 1.5 Austin 1.0 Schoop 2.5 Polanco 2.6 Adrianza 0.5 Sano 2.5 Rosario 3.2 Buxton 2.4 Kepler 2.5 Cave 1.5 Hitters' Total: 22.2 Pitchers: Berrios 3.2 Gibson 2.7 Odorizzi 2.3 Pineda 1.5 Romero 1.0 Soria 1.2 Herera 0.6 Rogers 1.3 May 0.8 Reed 0.5 Mejia 0.5 Hildenberger 0.4 13th man 0 Pitchers' Total: 16.0 Overall WAR: 38.2 While this doesn't get them above 40, they are within striking range. A few surprises could give them the nudge above 40. The biggest question marks in my estimates belong to Buxton and Sano. This is a big season for both players and the Twins are counting on them being productive players in their lineup. Those two, along with perhaps Berrios, provide the Twins with the most potential star power on the team. I believe that the front office is hedging their bets to see what Buxton and Sano can deliver. If they fail to deliver, I suspect Falvey and Levine sell off pieces (Gibson, Odorizzi, Schoop, relievers) in order to retool for 2020/2021 when Kirilloff, Lewis and Graterol are expected to arrive. If Buxton and Sano are up to the task, the Twins will have the ability to take on salary and add a piece or two to push them towards the playoffs. It may not be the path I would have chosen, but I can at least see some reason in the choices they have made.

I don't disagree with this, but Schoop is a good one year option. I'm not sure how many people on the market would sign for one year. It allows the Twins the ability to assess Gordon and Lewis for another year and also to determine if Buxton and Sano can finally step up and be the stars this team needs. It definitely seems as though the Twins are making short term decisions this year until they get clarity on Sano and Buxton. If I were a betting man, I would guess they sign a reliever who could be a closer, another reliever with upside (below the top 12 or so on the FA list) and maybe another starter of the Gio Gonzalez ilk.

Yeah, I don't want a better SS than Polanco who has a low OBP of .341 the past 3 yrs. It all depends on the price. Gordon, Gonsalves and an A ball prospect enough? Much more than that, I say sign Iglesias.

Two IF, preferably Iglesias and Donaldson. Adrianna is a reasonably priced backup IF who doesn't suck with the bat. Polanco is Ok at SS, but I would like to see an upgrade on defense. Move him to 2B now since I don't see him there long term. Donaldson can be 1B/DH for 3 years and be a backup plan at 3B. I think Donaldson is more likely to stay healthy at 1B/DH and provide the additional big bat we need in our lineup.

Rooker (not Sano), Cave, Romero, May and Gordon. Hells yes. Mets say, hell no.