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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, although more accurately, Fantex customers are out the money. Fantex's deal with the player is conditioned on them selling enough initial "shares" to cover the up-front payment. Although if post-playing coaching/managing/autograph/etc income counts too, there will still likely be a trickle of income going from the player to Fantex.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    From what I've read, it is for life, but only on baseball-related income. So if he becomes a minor league coach and/or he's doing autograph shows when he's 50 years old, he will owe a portion of that income to Fantex, but if he becomes a real estate agent, that income would be protected. (Presumably there is some "professional" baseball distinction made too, so a player could become a high school coach or something?)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, since you yourself have questioned the meaning and usefulness of your measurement, may I suggest switching to something more quantitative? So it is more easily tracked, understood, and compared across teams/years? For example, I just scanned the Fangraphs game logs for WPA/LI and noted who had positive/negative marks for each appearance, and came up with the following results for April: Pitcher, Positive-Negative Fien 8-4 May 7-5 Abad 10-1 Pressly 8-3 Tonkin 5-5 Jepsen 5-5 O’Rourke 5-2 Perkins 1-1 Rogers 1-0 Meyer 0-1 As you can see, it's a pretty darn close match to your system. The only differences are Perkins first outing (a scoreless mop-up inning for which you gave him a demerit), the one Abad appearance mentioned in my previous post, and two of Tonkin's appearances. One of those he pitched 3 innings in relief of a starter's early exit -- maybe we have a special rule for such games? And the other was allowing an inherited runner to score from second with one out, which could probably go either way. In any case, it would be pretty easy to pull this WPA/LI info for every reliever/team, if you are interested. Might make this analysis more interesting going forward. Strict WPA would be a pretty close match too, it would "forgive" Tonkin's 3 inning appearance but it would shift one appearance each on the ledgers of O'Rourke and Pressly, it appears. Maybe an average of the two (WPA and WPA/LI) could effectively allow for half-credit (or half-demerit)?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Abad inherited second and third with nobody out. He allowed an RBI groundout, and then a sac fly to score both runners (then Rosario dropped the sac fly, which put another runner on base that Tonkin allowed to score). Abad had to face two reasonably good, hard to K hitters too in Lindor and Brantley. Might be a spot where a simple +/- system doesn't work -- maybe this should be, at best, a neutral performance from Abad?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You're double-counting one game where Tonkin allowed an inherited runner and allowed a run of his own (the 16 inning one). Also, the other game where Tonkin allowed a run of his own, it was in a 3 inning long relief appearance. I think 1 run in 3 innings counts as doing his job, particularly under those circumstances. It appears Seth is dinging Tonkin for his first 3 inherited runner games, but not the most recent one vs Cleveland. He inherited a runner at second and only one out and let him score, but he otherwise got 5 outs that day without allowing another run (or leaving any inherited runners for others).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    And take a look at the opposing lineup Darnell was facing. Leadoff man Alexi Casilla! Basically zero current prospects, Jesus Montero is only one with an OPS over .700, and the last 5 guys in that lineup each have OPS figures below .550 right now. (You know how bad Buxton has looked at the plate in MLB so far? Career MLB OPS .555)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Also defense, luck.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, only one postseason game meets that criteria. Nathan blew one save in the playoffs for us, game 2 in 2009.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Ervin Santana would be eligible to return Friday May 6, and Kyle Gibson on Sunday May 8. Assuming they make no other changes, Berrios and Duffey would each get one more start before that. Milone only has one tentative start in that time too (Sunday).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, that's fWAR which is based on FIP. Probably not the best measure for a reliever. Going by RA9-WAR at Fangraphs, the relief leader had 3.7, still less than 25 starters but not quite as severe: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Tonkin would definitely have to go through waivers, but I don't think the Twins would be particularly bothered by that, at this point (nor should they be, if they feel like they can add a better pitcher). Could be Duffey, if Berrios is essentially taking the place of the DL'ed Ervin Santana. Although Milone staying in the rotation isn't ideal...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    So, Polanco up, Ervin to the DL -- that still means another guy needs to be dropped from the 25-man to add Berrios. I guess not until after the game tonight. Pretty much can only be O'Rourke or Tonkin, right?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    There's an off day Thursday too, so it's pushing Gibson back 2 days. I guess it buys an extra day for Ervin too, so maybe Duffey finally gets sent out.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Berrios is taking Gibson's turn Wednesday, and there is an off day Thursday. Is there a problem with Gibson? I saw Berardino referenced back problems as well as his poor performance.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Rain might do that for you, the forecast for this whole home stand is pretty bad (although probably not raining-enough-to-cause-a-delay bad).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    And we can do that, even after optioning Duffey, by putting Ervin Santana on the DL retroactive to his last start. Then you could recall Duffey to start Saturday. Ervin would be eligible to come off the DL in time for his following start, next week. The only reason to resist optioning Duffey is if you were also going to resist DL'ing Santana if he can't start Saturday, which would be rather insane -- who lets a SP miss two consecutive turns through the rotation without any kind of DL stint? Or if they wanted Duffey to join the bullpen in a few days, but that doesn't seem likely with the promotion of Meyer to the pen, and in any case doesn't address the priority of bullpen need of the next few games.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    What's up with Gibson? He was the scheduled starter for tomorrow...
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if there is anything for Duffey to argue or "win" -- this situation is common enough, I doubt it rises to the level of grievance. If the pitcher can't take his next turn in the minor leagues, the team rescinds the option at that point and puts him on the MLB DL retroactively. What they generally don't do is carry him in limbo on the MLB roster, unavailable to pitch when you need fresh arms, and with a 2 man bench, waiting to option him once his bruise heals up.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, I don't think this is true. There are lots of examples of teams optioning pitchers who are possibly injured, then later rescinding the option to retroactively put them on the MLB DL when the injury is confirmed. See my post listing them upthread: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/22174-article-roster-shuffle-buxton-and-kepler-out-meyer-and-santana-in/page-7?do=findComment&comment=469999 It appears the Twins want to keep Duffey for other reasons, even though he can't pitch the next couple games, or that they possibly want to scratch/delay Santana's next start without putting him on the DL and they only want Duffey to replace him. Either one seems like a pretty suspect reason to leave your bench and even your bullpen (assuming they are looking to debut Meyer this season in mop-up duty) short for a series.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    How does carrying 6 starting pitchers (our starting five plus Duffey) help with that? That's why the Twins had 14 pitchers last night, not because they added bullpen help.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    And if Meyer doesn't pitch tonight in relief of Nolasco, he will effectively miss his turn and may not be ready to start Sunday either (assuming he sees some relief work Wednesday-Saturday).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Likely not true. See my reply to you on the other thread for numerous examples of teams rescinding options to retroactively put players on the MLB DL: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/22174-article-roster-shuffle-buxton-and-kepler-out-meyer-and-santana-in/page-7?do=findComment&comment=469999
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. Interesting. Here's the paragraph in question: "Right-hander Tyler Duffey, knocked out of Sunday’s start after taking a line drive off his throwing shoulder, went through all his normal arm exercises on Monday but the Twins trainers wouldn’t let him play catch. According to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, he can’t be optioned back to the minors until he fully recovers from the bruising on the surface of his shoulder." As you can imagine, though, the CBA says nothing that specific, so I suspect this was the author's inference. The CBA is obviously much more general: "Players who are injured and not able to play may not be assigned to a Minor League club." But I've never heard of a player being kept in the majors until he is deemed healthy so he can be optioned. However, I have heard of players optioned who later had the option rescinded after being found unhealthy enough to play, and were retroactively placed on the MLB DL and awarded back pay and service time. It doesn't even require a grievance, teams seem quite willing and able to do this as necessary. A simple Google search for "baseball option rescinded disabled list" yields multiple results: Neil Ramirez, 2014 Cubs http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/546120 Tyler Olson, 2015 Mariners http://m.mlb.com/news/article/123392352/seattle-mariners-tyler-olson-placed-on-15-day-dl-option-rescinded Cesar Puello, 2014 Mets http://justmets.mlblogs.com/2015/04/06/mets-rescind-outright-assignment-of-cesar-puello-placed-on-the-15-day-dl/ Rafael Montero, 2015 Mets http://risingapple.com/2015/04/30/mets-news-rafael-montero-to-dl-with-rotator-cuff-inflammation/ Jhoulys Chacin, 2012 Rockies http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/2012-05-07-113590609_x.htm I think the Twins are just disappointingly "cool" with wasting roster spots on players "in limbo" for no discernible benefit, unfortunately.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I know they don't like to skip the 5th starter spot, but that could be an option with the off day Thursday and rain forecast for the rest of this homestand. Still, I'd guess they'd just let Milone make the start. TR's quote about Murphy clearly suggests they weren't planning to promote Berrios. Putting Meyer in the pen (and not using him, despite a relatively early exit by Milone) suggests they're not eager to give him a start. And while Duffey's spot start Sunday looked like it was due to timing (his turn lining up with Santana's), keeping Duffey around beyond that game seems to suggest they view him at the "6th starter" at this point, first in line for any rotation openings.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The rules page that I linked above indeed says "An injured player cannot be optioned to the minors" so that general idea is not in dispute. However, I believe you are wrong about the sequencing. Optioning a player has never required an absolute determination of health first, or every player getting optioned would need to undergo a thorough physical examination, every time. That is clearly not the standard practice. A quick Google search turned up what I think is the more likely process: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-tony-clark-will-watch-cubs-closely-20150227-story.html "The Cubs fell under scrutiny last summer when they optioned rookie reliever Neil Ramirez, who had a sore shoulder. But Ramirez's option to Triple-A Iowa was rescinded because injured players cannot be optioned, and he was placed on the major league 15-day disabled list." So, the Twins could definitely option Duffey. But if he was found to be unhealthy enough to play at AAA, he would be required to retroactively go on the MLB disabled list. The Twins do not have to roster Duffey until his arm is deemed fully healthy.
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