LA VIkes Fan

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players, etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86) Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026) Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070) Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060) Larnach .676 Minus .143 Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137 Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others. I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop. I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots. We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

Polanco can and shold be a team leader. He's is a key part of the core going forward along with Buxton, Kirilloff, Donaldson, and maybe Arraez. Sano and/or Kepler/ Who knows. Can be anywhere from bench guy/4th of to middle of the order bat DH (Sano) and 6th place hitter (Kepler). Here's what we got, assuming we re-sign Buxton (absolute necessity) - 1B - Kiriloff 2B - Polanco SS - ???!!! 3B - Donaldson/Arraez UTL - Arraez, Gordon. Infield - Bottom line, need a Shortstop. Bad. Rest pretty decent. Probably strongest group on the team. OF - Buxton, ?????, Kepler/Larnach/Rooker Outfield - Bottom line, need that 2nd quality OF. Bad. Maybe it can be Larnach or Rooker. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF now, unlikely to step up farther after this many years. SP - ???, ???, Maeda, Pineda (if re-signed), ??? (Ober, Jax. Barnes, Dobnak) Starting Pitching - Ugly. Maeda and Pineda can hold down the 3/4 spots, the other 4 should give us a 5th starter and maybe another 4th starter type. Need 2 top end guys pretty badly. RP - Rogers, Duffy, Alcala, 4-5 x ????? (Coloumbe, Theilbar) Bullpen - Need 4 to 5 guys for next year. Coloumbe might be one of them, Theilbar has a shot at a back of the bullpen spot. After that, it's a complete crapshoot/nightmare. Bring up the AAA guys and start sorting through them. Not looking so rosy. Hope help is really on the way from below.

While I disagree with you on Ober, you have a good point on the 40 man roster. I took a look and really the only guys I see that we can and perhaps should drop to give other guys a shot in the majors are Beau Burrows (the early results show the Tigers knew what they were doing) and the 30 year olds Luke Farrell and Derek Law. We could also drop Jake Cave and Kyle Garlick, although Garlick is on the 60 day IL so I guess dropping him doesn't create another spot. It will be a challenge to find room for to add guys so they can come up this year. Am I correct that a player has to be on the 40 man roster to be eligible to be on the MLB 26 man roster?

Right on brother! Let's not let ourselves get so desperate for a Berrios replacement that we judge all of the new SP candidates with that lens. They are all going to struggle initially before they improve. Ober is actually on a good course compared to most, so while Ii think he should go 6 innings a start for fewer starts rather tan 4-5 for more, I don't want to lose sight of the fact that he may be developing into a solid 4/5 starter as early as next year. And that's a very good thing. By the way, Jax has actually looked better than at least I expected this early. Is it possible that our AA/AAA pitching development folks are actually competent? We'll see as the next wave comes up but the early returns are better than I expected. Now let's see some of the mid 20s bullpen guys. Like NOW.

I hear you but that doesn't help us evaluate for next year unless the Twins have already decided he's a bullpen arm next year. The job for a guy who can throw up to 75-80 pitches but no more is Long Reliever, not starting pitcher. Nothing wrong with that but I say let's find out while we can in an uncompetitive year, not next year when we're hoping to compete.

Guys, I think Ober's development is clearly a success. He's getting better every start and showing signs of being a consistent back end starter - 4 or 5 spot. Those guys do not grow on trees and are pretty valuable. Yes, he's not a #1 or #2 but that doesn't mean he isn't important. I can absolutely see him as the 4th or 5th starter at the beginning of next season. There is one thing that puzzles me. I understand that we're watching his innings but why 4-5 innings for another 10-12 starts instead of 6 plus innings for another 7-8 starts? that's what we need next year - starters that can go 6 plus innings. Let's see if he can be one of those guys and whether he can navigate that 3rd time through the lineup. Yes, that mans shutting him down in early September but that might be a good thing. We have a lot of potential starters to evaluate THIS YEAR - Ober, Jax, Barnes, Ryan, Winder, Thorpe, Balazovic, at the very least. Leave a few starts for those guys. run piggy back starts - e.g., Jax as long as he can go followed by Barnes hopefully to the end of the game - but get these guys on the mound and find out if they're ready for the big time. Commit to the re-tool NOW, don't waste this year.

Wait, am I reading this right? We got a 28 year old pitcher on a real major league roster with a sub 3.5 ERA and a AA pitcher for the withered husk of J.A. Happ? Wow ..... just, wow.

The Dodgers think he can, or at least that’s what they’re saying. I will say though, I wasn’t very familiar with Jacob Amaya until you mentioned him. The more I read the more interesting he becomes. Maybe a package built around pitching with Amaya as part of it works. My only concern is Amaya is not hitting at all in AA this year (.218/.301/.366) so he may still be a couple of years out. We are going to need a regular shortstop starting either the day after we trade Simmons or by opening day next year.

I disagree. The Twins should be very interested in Gavin Lux. He's a good fielding shortstop and as a pre-–arb player he would be on the team for at least the next 4 or 5 years. He hit a little when he was playing for the Dodgers while Seager was out before his injury (.227/.307/.359 (.656), and actually should be a quality shortstop who is at least a decent hitter. We do not have a shortstop at the moment. I think he could be at least a good fielding decent hitting shortstop for the next 4 to 5 years and could be more at the plate as he developed. I do agree with the poster that said getting Josiah Gray is going to be difficult, particularly if we get Tony Gonsolin. If we can't get Gray, I would suggest Ryan Pepiot. He said AA now, doing quite well, and could project out to at least mid-rotation or better in the next 2 – 3 years. Frankly, I would be willing to throw in any reliever on the Twins roster other than Rogers or Duffy if we could get Gonsolin, Lux, and Pepiot. Of course removing Rogers and Duffy probably removes anybody the Dodgers might actually want. But who knows what's being offered.

Padres out. Dodgers in? They look like the best option from a talent standpoint. They have a lot more to trade us than Seattle or Toronto, particularly pitching. By the way, I live in LA and follow the Dodgers. Close to zero chance that they will trade us Dustin May for the reasons I explained before. Think about Tony Gonsolin, Gavin Lux at the controlled MLB level and Josiah Gray and Ryan Pepiot at the prospect level. Some combination of that group is much more likely.

Guys, I live in LA and follow the Dodgers. Very unlikely that hey trade Dustin May. they see him as a future #1 or #2 with several years before free agency. Next year, they see Buhler and May as the 2 of the top 3 in the rotation assuming Kershaw stays (now that Bauer has imploded). Buhler is signed through 2022, and starts arb in 2023 with free agency in 2025. Dustin May doesn't even hit arbitration until 2023 and free agency in 2026. Very hard to give that up. I may be wrong, but I think that Berrios and Rogers or Duffy isn't going to be close to enough. Probably should focus on someone else on a deal with the Dodgers.

I don't think the Dodgers will trade May. Probably not on the list of possible outcomes. How about Berrios and either Robles or, if we have to, Duffy to the Dodgers for Tony Gonsolin, Gavin Lux and either Josiah Gray or Ryan Pepiot? They get starting and bullpen help, we get a mid to back rotation guy in Gonsolin, our starting SS for the next few years, and a potential top end starter.

At the risk of stating the obvious, I think a lot of the mistakes were based on overestimating the core talent in place and thinking the team would be playoff competitive this year if we just filled some holes in the complimentary group. That's why you keep a Cave around as a 4th/5th OF (which costs you a 40 man spot for Badoo), bring in Robles and Colome, look for veteran 4th/5th starters like Happ and Shoemaker, and sign a bunch of 30 year old relievers to be available at AAA (although Coloumbe has been pretty good). The real problem is that the middle of the order core turned out to be a bunch of inconsistent complimentary players, not lineup anchors. Sano is maddeningly inconsistent and shouldn't be hitting higher than 6 or 7 on a good team, and really is a streaky DH/bench player on a good team. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF with a good corner glove/avg CF glove who can't really hit. Shouldn't hit higher than #7 in the order on a good team. Berrios is a solid 2/strong #3 starter not a #1, and Maeda is a #3, not a #2. Polanco can hit in your top 5 or 6 in the order, but he can only be a decent 2B, not really a SS. Same for Arraez with even less field value. Donaldson is good, but not great, Buxton still gets hurt all the time, and the BP is Rogers, with Duffy as a decent but not closer or 8th inning piece, and then a crapshoot. This isn't a core to supplement, it's a supplement looking for a core. Well, now we know. We do have part of the core in Garver and Buxton if he's healthy surrounded by Polanco and Arraez. Kirilloff looks like he can be a core guy. The pitching staff is still a mess, but Ober gives us some hope and there are others who deserve a shot. The thing to do now is develop internal guys and those you get in trades, not bring in fringe vets to fill holes. I think it can be done soon enough to be interestingly competitive in 2022 and a real contender in 2023. We just need to get this started now.

I hear you. It's a lot easier for me to say what I think the Twins should do from here in LA where I can watch the dodgers and Angels, and not have to pay MLB prices to watch the twins throw Ober, Barnes and Jax in a 3 game series. I agree that the Twins should run deals, promotions, etc. to help ease the pain of watching a re-tooling/evaluating team. Doesn't help you if you bought season tickets but that's the risk you take. trust me, I'm in season ticket groups for the Kings, Dodgers, Lakers and Chargers so I'm very familiar with going to games where you keep asking "who is that guy again?" while having the joy of paying full price for the tickets. Rumor has it that the Twins FO actually monitors this board and that there is someone on the board who actually works for the team,. Shows what a great job our moderators do. If there is, let me add to my long 6 point post sent at at about 9 a.m. LA time: 7. Discount all but the best seats so fans can bring their families, get decent seats, hot dogs and a coke and spend $100 or less for 4. The rest of this year is about evaluating players. Don't make the fans pay full price to watch that. You will make more money long term if you treat the fans like adults with a stake in the team. Have Jim Pohlad go on TV flanked by Falvey and Levine, announce the team's longer term plans, and say we're reducing 2021 prices so the fans can come out for the rest of the year and get to know the 2022 team. Give season ticket holders a 10% discount on next year if they buy or renew in the next 30 days. Get the fans invested and you'll make it back and then some next year.

I think this deadline is playing out the way it probably should for the Twins. Patience is key here. The Cruz trade was the right move because the offer was good enough to move early. It looks like the rest of the offers have not been good enough. My view: 1. Don't trade Buxton, sign him. From what I read, the $80m guarantee is over 7 years is acceptable to both, the issue is the size of the escalators. There is a deal there, make it. The only way a midmarket team can keep someone this talented is to get lucky and take risk. That's what we need to do here. 2. Only trade Berrios now if you get a huge package. From the Dodgers, it must include either a Dustin May or Gavin Lux type player, +1 of their top starting pitching prospects like Gray or Peipot, plus an A+ or AA pitcher or shortstop with upside. Do not trade him unless you can get that. If all we're being offered is a lesser package, we can get that over the winter and it gives us a chance to re-sign him. Consider trading Donaldson to create the payroll space to give the money to Berrios. We need him more. 3. With two possible exceptions, trade all of the expiring contracts for effectively whatever you can get. It ain't going to be much given the performance of these guys but restocking the lower levels with guys that don't have to be on the 40 man roster right away has value. The point here is not the return. The point here is opening up opportunities now, not next year NOW, for the next wave of guys who might help us in 2022 through 2025. If you have to DFA guys like Happ to move him off the roster, do it. Colome is tougher because they still the hint of reclamation there as a middle of the bullpen guy and we need that. 4. The other exception is Pineda. Only trade him if you can get a solid to good return in the form of pitching that can be on the MLB roster next year or a shortstop. If you can't get that, try to re–sign him NOW. He wants to stay, is a solid number 3 or number 4 starter (#3 if he gives you 30 starts, #4 the more likely event he gives you 20 starts) and he wants to stay. 2 years $20 - $25 million. 5. Avoid the temptation to trade guys who can be contributing parts of a contending team in the 2022 – 2024 timeframe and for whom there are no obvious replacements like Duffy, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Maeda, etc. unless a team overpays. Do not let other teams take our decent quality players unless we decide to trade all of them and start over. I don't think were ready to do that nor do I think we need to do that. 6. PLAY the young guys so we can evaluate them for next year around what we need to find over the winter. In the field, that means Rooker, Gordon, Larnach, Miranda all get a lot of at bats. Same for Sano, Refsnyder and/or Contreras if the FO thinks they can be contributors next year. Celestino is not ready, so he goes back to AAA at the very least. Rotvedt is in the same boat and should stay in AAA. Whatever you do, do not play guys like Astudillo and Cave at the expense of these other guys. Astudillo and Cave might be numbers 25 – 30 on the roster next year but we already know what they can do. Let's not be 1 of those teams that tries to eke out another 3 – 5 wins this season by playing guys really have no long-term future as significant contributors. 7. PITCH the young guys for the same reason. Hopefully after the trade deadline dust settles, there will be room in the starting rotation for at least Jax and/or Barnes, and hopefully for Winder. Give all of these guys a minimum of 5 or 6 start down the stretch and keep Ober in the rotation until he reaches his innings limit, then sit him and give the last few starts to someone else. Hopefully the bullpen will have room for at least some of Hamilton, Vasquez, Moran, and Cano. Get those guys at least 10 – 15 appearances each, again so you can see what we have. Send Alcala back to AAA if you need to to create room. Look, all of this sucks and seems like every move we made over the winter backfired. Having said that, we are where we are. We need to have a plan to move forward to make things better as soon as possible. I think this plan does that and, more importantly gives us the data we see how far away we are by the end of the season. That helps make a decision on guys like Berrios and whether to try to re-sign guys like Cruz and Pineda if he's traded. Stop mucking around and commit to a re-tooling this year or we're going to be stuck in never never land again next year.

I completely agree that he should get some MLB at bats. I would prefer they started sooner rather than later though. If we trade Donaldson, I would advocate bringing up Miranda and giving he 3-4 days a week to get his feet wet starting in early August. If not, I agree that we should wait until September. The reason for the difference is that absent Donaldson, the Twins have more of a need for him next year so we have more of a need to see what he can do for a longer period. Assumedly Arraez will move to 3B if Donaldson is traded and it's hard to project more than 100-120 games a year for Arraez given his knee issues unless he spends some time as the DH. We will need a 3B to play at least 40-60 games next year if Donaldson is gone and I for one would prefer that Sano not be that guy.

I would love to see the Twins get May and either Lux, Peipot or Gray for Berrios. I would even throw in Robles to "help" the Dodgers bullpen. If they want Berrios and Rogers, we need to get back May, plus Lux, Gray or Gonsolin, and a solid relief prospect like Bruihl or Jackson. A starting pitcher, starting SS and decent upside MiLB pitcher.

Why trade Rooker until you’ve played him some more and give him a chance to see what he can do? He isn’t going to get us anything significant in return unless we can find a team willing to trade a blocked shortstop or pitching prospect in return for a blocked outfield/DH prospect. Seems pretty unlikely. He is worth more to us than he is to anybody else, so why trade him? I guess I could see him as the minor-league throw in to even out a different trade. I think the better thing to do is to do what they’re doing, call him up, put him in the lineup as a DH Or outfielder and see if he can find that hitting stroke he seem to have a couple of years ago in a small sample. There’s nothing for us in trading him now so why do it.

Trading Nelson Cruz is no fun, but this is exactly what the Twins have to do and should do. They traded a player only signed to the end of the season and got back to reasonably well regarded players at a position of need, starting pitching. It hurts emotionally and makes the team weaker in the short run, but probably makes the team stronger in the long run. The rest of the season needs to be all about evaluating what we have and opening up the DH spot to get more bats to others makes sense as does getting two more pitchers we can audition in these last two months of the season. By the way, I wouldn’t yet close the book on the Twins resigning Nelson Cruz in the off-season. A lot depends on how the team looks the last two Months of the season. If the FO thanks we can compete in 2022, I could easily see them trying to resign Cruz for another run as the DH. The competition may be tough but frankly that’s no different than things would have been anyway since his contract was going to run out at the end of the season. I like this trade. I also think this is pretty much it before the deadline unless they find someone to take Donaldson‘s contract. I think will see some small trades of guys like Simmons, Robles and Happ for A ball lottery ticket types. I think Pineda might get us a little more, but frankly not much. I very much doubt that Buxton, Berrios or Rogers will be traded by July 30 although all or some may be gone in trades over the winter. It will be very interesting to see who is still on the team come July 31.

I do think that "wait and see" is the right approach with Rocco. I do think that he sometimes gets a little to lost in the analytics and loses the human side of performance. Even if a particular pitching matchup is the right thing statistically, it may not be the right thing on that day for that player, and a manager needs to see and understand that before making a decision, I do think he needs a strong, experienced bench coach to help him. The biggest problem with this team is that the players who were supposed to be the core group at this point have mostly failed except for Polanco and Berrios and even they aren't leading lights. The middle of the batting order by this point was supposed to include Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Garver and Polanco. Sano is almost unplayable, Kepler can't hit and looks like he will never be more than a good fielding OF who should hit no higher than 7th (and maybe be the 4th OF), Garver is injured and inconsistent, and Buxton can't stay healthy. Polanco looks like a leadoff or #6 hitter. On the pitching side, Berrios hasn't taken that step to be a #1 ( I would argue that he's a solid #2/strong #3), Maeda is a mystery, and the bullpen never really developed past Rogers. It's hard to blame the manager for these failings.

Interesting list. I see the Andrew Vasquez jersey on the twitter feed but didn't see him on your list. Looks to be having a great year in St. Paul. What do you think of him as an asset worth a shot this year?

I agree that the Padres are more likely to give up real assets for Berrios than the Dodgers. I live in LA and the Dodgers really tend to prize and hold onto the prospects they think are going to be long term MLB players. They have the budget to simply go out and buy what they need so they don't feel quite as much need to trade prospects for proven talent. I think it's going to be very hard to pry Dustin May away from the Dodgers. They see him as the number two starter behind Walker Buehler as early as 2023 when Clayton Kershaw is retired and/or living in Texas. Gavin Lux might be possible but right now the Dodgers are planning to have him play shortstop after Corey Seager potentially walks away in free agency after this season given that Scott Boras is his agent. The Padres might be the better trade partner right now. I did want to follow up on a point made by another poster indicating that it was telling the team made an offer to Buxton but not to Berrios or Rogers. Do we know that to be the case? I am more curious than anything because I would suspect that they have offers out to all three, or at least I would hope so because it would help provide clarity as to what they should do going forward. Has anyone read anything about that from a reasonably trustworthy source? Inquiring minds want to know.

I live in LA and I do think the Dodgers are in an interesting position with Baauer‘s future completely up in the air. I could see them trading for Berrios but I think they would have a hard time giving up Dustin May. What do you think about taking that same deal, have the Twins give up Berrios but not Rogers, and getting back Tony Gonsolin, Pepiot and Gavin Lux? Two pitchers and a SS?

Quick question, if Barnes is called up as the 27th man for a doubleheader do we burn an option year? I seem to remember that it does not burn an option year as long as you return the player to AAA after the doubleheader. It’s kind of a free look other than having to add him to the 40 man roster. Can someone let me know if I’m remembering this right? Frankly, we should call him up and give him more than one start so this may be a moot but at least we get a free look if I’m remembering this right.