LA VIkes Fan

I see that Maeda went on the IL. Who comes up? Strotman is on the 40 man roster, Ryan has pitched better, and Miranda is doing great but we need a pitcher. Strotman pitched Sunday, Ryan last Friday and we need a starter on Thursday unless we actually are going to throw Charlie Barnes out to get lit up again or give Gant another try. My guess is Ryan will come up, Gant will start on Thursday as part of a piggy back with Barnes, and Ryan will start on Friday against the Brewers at home. Frankly, almost as likely that they will do the same thing except substitute Strotman for Ryan.

You start with a few facts and the choice is right in front of you. Fact 1- Polanco isn’t going back to SS. He’s the 2B long term. Fact 2 - Donaldson can’t move and is Physically incapable of playing in the field more than 50 to 75 games a year at third base. He hast to be the DH if he stays. Fact 3. - Arraez Has a bad knee, cannot physically play a lot in the outfield because of that knee and requires some either IL or DH time. Fact 4 - We have too many people for the DH/1B/3B spots and none of them can play SS. Either one of them has to be traded or sit on the bench. Fact 5 - there is an open spot in LF and potentially an open part time spot in RF, depending on what you think about Kepler’s future. Neither Rooker or Larnach has shown enough this year to be penciled into LF. I see two choices. Either move Kiriloff back to LF, which opens up first base for Sano, and leaves potentially Donaldson, Miranda and Arraez playing third base and DH. The other choice is to keep Kirilloff at first base, which means either Donaldson has to play third with Sano the DH, Areaez Utl And Miranda a back up infielder or in AAA. In that scenario, Kepler plays almost every day and Larnach and Rooker fight it out for the LF job. My suggestion? Trade Donaldson. Opens up third base for Arraez on a daily basis unless and until Miranda beats him out for the job, and which point he becomes a UTL. Decide if you think either Larnach or Rooker can be your every day leftfielder. If they can’t, and I think it’s pretty clear that Rooker can’t with Larnach still a possibility. put Kirilloff in LF, Sano at 1B, Arraez at 3B/Utl, Give Miranda a shot at third base, and rotate bench players through the DH spot or use it for partial days off. Even better, bring back Nelson Cruz to DH If they can. Miranda this year? Stays in Saint Paul until their season is over. Twins have financial incentives for doing that and they like to have their MILB players taste success on the way up. I don’t think we’ll be seeing him this year unless the Saint Paul season ends in time to give him a taste at the very end of the season. I’m not saying it’s the right call, I think it’s the call they’ve already made.

I think the 7 yr/80m deal they negotiated as his base is frankly a great deal for the Twins. Think about it this way, we're committed to pay Kepler 8.5m next year and 10m in 2023, and Sano 9.25m and 14m those same two years. No question Buxton is worth more than they are if he plays 80 games a season, a lot more if he plays 130. We're getting him for 11.57m a season base. Not a huge risk and one easily worth taking. I don't know what the difference is on the incentives but I can't believe that it's such that there's no deal to be had unless the Twins think that by guaranteeing 11.57m a year that they are stretching. IF they think that, we have the wrong guys negotiating the deals. That's a great deal, it's not a stretch. Let's not delude ourselves into thinking he's going to take a 3 or 4 year deal unless we pay handsomely for it - like 20m a year. A 3 year, 45m deal? Not happening. There is zero incentive for him to take that. He will do better after the 2022 season unless he suffers a career ending injury and he can insure for that. He will get a minimum of 17-20 m a year in guarantees if he has a decent or better season next year. The only way a mid market team can stay competitive is to take risk - signing players long term before having a complete picture or overpaying older players. We can't and won't pay market for guys in their prime. Sometimes it works - see Polanco, sometimes it's a best a small loss - see Donaldson, sometimes its unclear and we might crash and burn - See Kepler and Sano. We still need to take the risk. It's the only way to truly compete. The deal is there. Make it, sign Buxton, and spend the rest of your money on pitching.

Kepler’s a fine defensive player. He just isn’t a good hitter and never has been other than 2019. Yes, his OPS+ is 101 but he’s a corner OF, not a SS, CF, or a C. He is s supposed to be over 100 and should be over 110 to play every day at a corner OF spot. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF that should be in a platoon playing 3-4 days a week and being a late inning defensive replacement when he doesn’t start. Kepler isn’t a bad player, he’s just a disappointment. We were all hoping he could be a core player going forward on a good team. He’s not. He’s a good defensive OF who should be playing 60% of the time on a good team hitting 7th or 8th and we should be looking for a better player to replace him. He’s not a guy we can build around.

I agree that they both need to play, but I don't think this is that hard. Arraez is the 3rd Baseman next year for 80-100 games, plays second to give Polanco a rest for 20 games, DHs a few, plays LF for a few, and is on the Il at least once with his balky knee. He winds up playing in about 125 – 140 games. Donaldson simply isn't the same guy in the field much anymore because he can't really move, so he winds up DHing 100 games and playing 50-60 games at 3B next year. Frankly, I wouldn't be too surprised if he thought about retirement because of his physical ailments and the Twins worked out a settlement of his contract but I'm probably being a little optimistic there. With Donaldson as the primary DH though, it does make things a little interesting with respect to Sano, Kirilloff, Kepler, Larnach and Rooker. It also pretty much eliminates a Nelson Cruz revival, although I don't think that was a likely scenario anyway. Bottom line, next year I would really like to see the starting lineup with Polanco at 2B, Arraez at 3B, Donaldson (or Cruz) at DH, Sano at 1B, a new SS, Kirilloff in LF, Buxton in CF, Kepler and Miranda platooning in RF, with Miranda also backing up in the infield, a Garver/Jeffers catching combo, Gordon as the IF/OF utility player, and a fight to the death between Rooker, Laranach and maybe Astudillo for that last spot on the bench. Losers go to AAA as the 27th and 28th men to join Cave, Refsnyder and Contreras as players in waiting.

Well said. He’s one of the true cornerstones going forward. The big question is, who else?

His rough patch shouldn't really be a surprise to anyone. He's at least a year ahead of schedule. He has potential and will be back at the MLB level. I think he has a good chance of either breaking camp with the MLB team next spring or being a May type call up.

The on field lineup IS pretty well set for next season. The only issue really is choosing 6 of the following 10 actual or potential Twins for basically 6 roster positions - LF, RF, 3B, DH, and 2 bench spots (assumes we pick up a FA SS, Arraez is one of the non-assigned bench spots as a Utl, and have one C on the bench): Sano, Larnach, Rooker, Refsnyder, Cave, Astudillo, Donaldson (trade candidate), Miranda, Gordon. Nelson Cruz reunion. My prediction is we keep Sano, Donaldson, and (1) either Refsnyder or Cave as the 4th/5th OF but not both, (2) either Larnach or Rooker as the 4th/5th OF/part-time DH but not both, and (3) either Astudillo or Gordon as the Utility IF but not both, and (4) either re-sign Cruz or keep the loser of one of the other 3 battles. I say we should keep Larnach (OF/DH), Rooker (OF/DH), Refsnyder (reserve CF/OF) and Gordon (Utl IF). Love me some Cruz but he clogs up the DH position instead of us running guys through it for half days off and he hasn't hit at all for the Rays. Miranda starts 2022 in AAA and is the first injury call up. Cave is the AAA CF and comes up if Buxton is hurt. Astudillo is the odd man out. The pitching staff? Good luck with that prediction. I will be impressed if someone can give us 13 names (not unnamed FA) as the opening day pitching staff for the 2022 season and get even 11 of them correct.

I live in LA and Simmons was a bit of a head case when he was out here. He skipped the last 10 or so games last year because he just "wasn't feeling it" with the Angels out of contention. Admittedly, those were weird times but it was very clear at that moment he wasn't coming back. Him being a head case isn't a reason to cut him. Him being a head case and having an OPS of .560 with an OPS + of 59 should be enough to at least put him on the bench and forget him. Add in that he didn't get vaccinated, got Covid, caused the team problems, and helped derail this season and it is a little surprising he's still on the team. I understand that the reason he wasn't traded is no else wanted him at the trade deadline, like at all, which should also tell us something. Frankly, he should be gone but we have no one to replace him. Kind of reminds of a certain QB... Look, there' s nothing wrong with making a choice. That's everyone's privilege (not a right in the legal sense, a privilege). There's also nothing wrong with that choice leading to a consequence in society/with your employer, etc. There is no free lunch. When you make a choice, you also choose to live with the consequences of that choice. Cutting or benching Simmons because he isn't vaccinated and posts weird stuff on the internet is probably too severe of a consequence. Cutting or benching Simmons because he can't hit water if he fell out of a boat, has declined from a great to an above average infielder, the team needs to play guys to see if they have next year's SS anywhere in the system, and because he isn't vaccinated and posts weird stuff on the internet is not too severe a consequence. MLB is like most employers; the more valuable you are the more outside BS the Club will tolerate, the less valuable you are the less outside BS the Club will tolerate. Simmons is not very valuable right now.

I completely agree that his year is about evaluating guys. I've been saying that since late May. I just disagree on Rooker and think it's time to move on and evaluate others. He's overmatched and we haven't seen anything that suggests he'll improve. He's getting worse over time. I think we have seen enough to know that he isn't yet ready to compete on the MLB level at the plate. He doesn't provide defensive value so if he doesn't hit, he has no place. Let's keep in mind he hit some but wasn't exactly tearing up AAA before he came up - .239/.362/.546 with 80 SOs in 218 ABs (36%). He got promoted based upon his age and draft position, not so much on his AAA performance. He's probably out as the guy who goes when Buxton is activated. Until then, at least move him down to 7th or 8th in the order. Give the team a chance to be successful. I would bring up Miranda and give him those ABs. Contreras is interesting but we need a RH bat. Miranda has played some OF and his initial shot in the majors is probably on a Utility basis since we have Donaldson, then Arraez, then Sano to play 3B and 2B is taken by Polanco. I say let's see if Miranda can hit MLB pitching. We have to protect him after this year so let's see what we got. Drop Derek Law from the 40 man if we need to. I agree that we need to evaluate guys this year. That doesn't mean we run with them long term if they aren't successful after an opportunity. I just think Rooker has had his shot now twice this year, hasn't hit, and it's time for someone else. Also, let's not worry about a guy leaving and being successful elsewhere. That happens to every team and sometime guys have to leave, and change or get different coaching to be successful. Juan Minaya looks great this year - much better than when he was on the White Sox. That's not because the Twins are brilliant and the White Sox are dummies with relief pitchers because it also goes the other way. Some times it's just situational or coaching approach or frankly, just maturity or blind luck. the only thing we should care about is does the player help us? Right now, Rooker does not and he's getting worse over time, not better, so it's hard to make a case that he will help us in the future. Time for a re-set. Keep the line moving. Miranda is next in that line.

Great update, Ted. I find myself reading the Minor League update almost every day this season. Quick question. Are you going to update the top 20 prospect list to add any of Ryan, Strotman, Martin, etc.? It would be fun to see where they would fit on the list and make it easier to track their progress.

I think they moved Arraez out of the leadoff spot because they want him to be in a spot where he can drive in runs. We're pretty weak in the middle of the order with Donaldson always day to day, Sano streaky or awful, and Garver not playing every day. We should probably remember that the 2-6 middle of lineup this year was intended to be Buxton, Polanco. Cruz, Kirilloff and Donaldson. Only one of those guys now actually is on the team and plays every day. Arraez is the only other player who hits well enough to stay in the middle of the order. Having said that, leading off Kepler makes no sense to me either except that I don't really see anyone else out there other than Arraez and Polanco and they need to hit 3 and 4 or 5. Refsynder could lead off against LH pitching, but Sano, Cave Larnach and Simmons aren't really good enough to lead off vs, RH pitching. I'm not really sure who you put there unless you call up Miranda from AAA or Martin from AA. Hmmm, there's an idea..... As for Rooker, I'm pretty much done. He can't hit well enough yet to be on the MLB roster. Time to recognize that and give someone else the opportunity. Or maybe he gets a few more days of 4-5 ABs and then gets optioned when Buxton is ready. Hmmm, another interesting idea...

Help me guys. I had knee replacement surgery and they gave me opioids for the pain so I may be seeing things that aren't really there. I think the Twins just won 2 straight low scoring games against a 100 win team starting ... Griffin Jax and Bailey Ober? Really? Both saved by Alex Colome? With 6.2 scoreless relief innings from 5 or 6 different guys? Wow, either things have changed or these are really good drugs...

I see Rooker being left off of the 40 man roster in the offseason unless he shows a lot more at the plate in the last roughly 50 games. Frankly I think that's why he's playing so much because we need to make a decision on him v. the younger pitching on the 40 man. My guess is Rooker loses out and that another team is intrigued enough to pick him up.

I'm amazed that JAx actually looks like a legit MLB starter, but I have to admit that he does. Never would have guessed that. I've been on the "why Tortuga on this team" wagon and I have to admit he has shown value as the 25th or 26th guy on a roster. Not a starter but worth having around. To me, the big news other that Jax has been Gant and Colome's recent stretch . Gant looks like the real deal. If he is real and Colome is back to where he was in 2016-2020 we actually are up to 4 pretty good relievers for next year with Rogers and Duffy. Still need to find 3-4 more but that's a lot less than I thought we would need.

Simmons needs to go but we're kidding ourselves if we think the Twins will spend the money for Baez, Seeger, or Correa. This team will spend it's money on pitching and either move Polanco back to SS or sign a Freddy Galvis / Jose Iglesias stop gap SS for next year. I think it's telling that Simmons is still playing SS every day with Polanco at 2B. That tells me that the Twins have already decided that they are not going back to Polanco at SS next year and that Gordon isn't a SS option. Otherwise, we'd use the rest of this year for Polanco and/or Gordon to play SS and see if either can play the position well enough to be the SS next year. Get ready for a filler again next year while we wait for Lewis, Palacios or Martin to come up longer term.

I agree with most of this (not all), but I particularly agree with the Beau Burrows comment. There seems top be a reluctance to admit an honest mistake and move on. I understand picking him up, I really DON"T understand keeping him on the roster. We need to pick these guys up, evaluate them, and cut bait when we're wrong. Hopefully he's been DFA'd by the time you read this. I wonder if part of the issue is ego or that they're trying not to bring guys up in a bad year and pick up an extra year of control. I hope that's not it because that strikes me a mistake. THIS is the evaluation year. Use it. I have to also wonder a little about those who are suggesting that Terry Ryan was/would have been/could have been as good as the current FO. I just think that flies n the face of reality. This franchise was going nowhere fast when these guys took over. There was little to no chance of improvement. Now we have improved and I think in a way that never would have occurred with Ryan. He was great in the 90s and early 200s, lousy when he came back. He didn't keep up with analytical and technological trends and the team fell behind. We needed new blood. Now, the new FO may not be the long term answer. I get that. Suggesting that they haven't been a huge improvement just doesn't make sense to me.

Fun week, and I agree there are a couple more moves to make as we evaluate this group. Pitching wise, get Ryan up to take Barnes' place when he's back from the Olympics. Put Thorpe in the bullpen when he's ready. We need to see if he can be effective because he's in his last option year. I would also try to find a way to give Gant a few starts. He's been very effective as a reliever, was a starter and wants to start. Let's see if he can. Worst case scenario, he's in the bullpen next year (still amazed at the trade for him). I also think we need to give Hamilton and Moran a shot in the bullpen. They can take the place of Burrows and Coulombe. I disagree with the posters who want to release Colome. He's been effective for the last two months and we need a back end guy with Rogers on the IL for the rest of the year. Use 2021 to evaluate him We may need him next year. In the field, I think everybody we need to see is already up with the possible exception of Miranda and he's only a Donaldson IL stint from being needed. I suspect they'll keep him and Martin in the minors so the don't have to make a 40 man roster move by releasing someone else and also not burn an option year since they're both in the 23 and under range.

Interesting. Question: Would it make sense that one's barrel rate would go down when the strikeout % went down? The thinking is that instead of missing certain pitches, the hitter makes weak contact thus dropping the barrel %. I'd be curious is there's any information correlating the two measures. BTW, I would say weak contact is much better than no contact since it increases the possibility of a productive out. I think the Twins are going to have a very interesting set of decisions after this year that could really effect Sano. There's basically at least 5 or 6 players fighting for 4 starting spots at IB, LF, RF and DH - Sano, Kepler, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Rooker. I would add in Donaldson since it looks like he can't play more than 80-100 games at 3B so he'll need 30-50 games at DH. Minimum. I wouldn't be surprised is Donaldson and Arraez basically share 3B next year and, if the Twins keep Polanco at 2b (seems like the right move given this year), those two will likely split the majority of ABs at 3B and DH. In effect, there may only be 3 starting spots for those 5, and that's before we think about re-signing Cruz, Refsnyder as more than a bench option (unlikely), or bringing up Miranda or Contreras. The other thing is that none of these guys offer much as a bench option other than Kepler or Refsnyder. Hard to see keeping Sano around if he isn't getting 450-500 ABs a year. I agree that Sano is what he is - high power, high strikeout guy who plays below average defense outside of 1b and is barely average there. A .775-.825 OPS guy with 30 plus HRs and 150-200 strikeouts in 500-550 ABs. Not bad, but not great considering his lack of defense and baserunning. Hard to see where he fits in if he really loses the 1B job to Kiriloff, even harder if Donaldson or Cruz needs near full time work at DH. Sano only really works in three scenarios. One is if we move Polanco to SS, give 2B to Arraez, and have Sano DH 100 games a year, play 1B 20-25 and 3B 15-20. Hurts the middle infield defense. The second is if Kirilloff goes to the OF, and either Kepler goes to the bench or Larnach and Rooker go back to AAA with Resnyder/Cave/Garlick the 4th and 5th OFs. The third is that he or one of the other competitors is traded. I don't think any of these is the plan. It will be interesting to see what transpires with Sano and, for that matter, Kepler. Kirilloff and Larnach are here to stay and Rooker is either with them or gone. I don't think we will keep all 5 at the MLB level.

I like it! You could also still have a National and American League for the All Star game.

I agree that the key for Gordon is who plays SS. Polanco has earned an every day spot at either 2B or SS. Frankly, he's our best payer this year. Arraez needs to play regularly, although the where is a little less important. I think the choice is pretty clear - offense or defense? If we keep Simmons or sign a FA SS we will have better infield defense because Polanco is a decent 2B defensively and Arraez isn't really great defensively anywhere so he either becomes the utility guy at 2b, 3B, 1B and LF or starts in the OF. I don't think he can start in the OF because of his knee issues. He'll still get 400-500 ABS a year. Under that scenario, probably no room for Gordon long term. Better defense, lesser offense. If we go the other way and play Polanco at SS, there is room for Gordon IF he can play SS. Arraez plays second, and Gordon gets 300 ABs filling in at 2B and at SS. Or, if Donaldson is traded or becomes a nearly full time DH, Arraez plays 3B a lot, Gordon either backs up Polanco at 2B and a new SS or plays 2B with Polanco at SS. This is the least likely scenario to me because then there's no room for Cruz coming back, or for Sano to play regularly. If Polanco moves to SS and Donaldson plays 3B 100 games a year (the rest at DH), better offense, lesser defense. My guess is that Polanco goes back to SS because Simmons won't be re-signed and we won't pay the prices to get a good FA SS. Under that scenario, there's a place for Gordon but ONLY if he can competently play SS 20-30 games a year. I read that Rocco said they've told the Saints that they want Gordon playing a lot at SS and 3B so I think this is the scenario in play.

I really like the realignment idea assuming we're going to a universal DH. I made this a comment elsewhere but I also thought I'd also post this as a separate blog. Here's my proposal for realignment. I know it's fantasy but hey, it's the dog days of summer so why not? 5 divisions, not 6. 12 teams in the playoffs, The top 2 in each division plus two remaining teams teams with best records make the playoffs so there is a reward for being a little better than average. Four best records get byes while the other 8 play 3 games series down to 4. Lots of playoff games; TV loves it. The remaining 8 teams (4 with byes plus 4 first round winners) re-seed by record, not location. During the regular season you play all of the teams in three of the other four divisions 6 times each, 3 at home, 3 away. That's 108 games (6 times 18 - 6 teams in each division). You play the remaining games in your division. You play 11 games each year against your 5 division opponents, except one only 10 times, for 54 games, total 162. Alternatively, add a game and rotate the unbalanced 81 home/82 away schedules in each division. You could rotate through the division the one team that you "only" play 10 times and you'll have to rotate each year which team gets the extra home game, 2 you get the extra, 2 your opponent, to balance the schedule. Division are by location to create/enhance rivalries: West Coast Division - San Diego, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, San Francisco, Oakland/Vegas, Seattle Southwest/Rocky Mountain Division - Houston, Texas (Dallas), Arizona, Kansas City, St. Louis, Colorado (Denver) Midwest Division - Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Detroit, Pittsburg or Toronto (bummer that Twins are in a different time zone, but couldn't figure out a way to fix that) Southeast Division - Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Washington, Cincinnati, Cleveland or Baltimore (depends on whether you want the Ohio or Beltway rivalry) Northeast Division - Boston, NY Yankees, NY Mets, Philadelphia, Pittsburg or Toronto, Cleveland or Baltimore You rotate through the other divisions in the regular season. One year, the Twins play the Northeast, Southeast and Southwest, next year the Southeast, Southwest, West Coast, next year the Southwest, West Coast, Northeast, etc. That away the existing rivalries that are being broken up still play 6 games against each other 3 out of every 4 years like the Cubs and Cardinals. Those will fade over time; the Cubs new hated rival will be the White Sox, the Cards, the Royals. What do you guys think?

I agree with this post. I think Astudillo is the classic the 27th or 28th man on a 26 man roster that you stash at AAA to be called up as injury insurance until he runs out of options, and then you sign to a series of one year minor league contracts unless he finds a better offer someplace else.

I think you're probably right, although I wonder if he isn't in a competition with Astudillo, Cave, Refsnyder, Garlick, etc. for the 25th or 26 spot on the roster next year. I thought it was interesting that he was chosen to go down so Refsnyder could come up rather than Astudillo who I think still has options. I believe Cave would have to have been DFA' d so I kind of understand why he would be kept on the major-league roster. Having said that, I don't see that Cave is likely to be on the team next year assuming all of the other OFs are healthy at the beginning of the year. It seems like Cave would be behind Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, and Rooker at least, and that's not counting a guy like Refsnyder or Garlick, both of whom outperformed Cave before they got hurt. It sure seems like Cave's 40 man spot at least is in jeopardy over the off-season given the number of pitching prospects we will probably want to protect.

I see Nick Gordon has been sent down and Refsnyder brought up. I understand the logic; Gordon has been hitting around .200 with no walks or power for the last month and Refsnyder was hot earlier before he got hurt. We're evaluating both for 2022. My question is what does everyone see for Gordon going forward? Given his play this year, do you think the Twins need to keep him on the 40 man roster or could He survive the Rule 5 draft? Do you see a long term future for him with the Twins? We could use the 40 man spot but I am concerned about losing him in the draft since he would be easy for a losing team to stash for a season.