Parker Hageman

Download attachment: May_6.jpg When the Minnesota Twins traded Ben Revere to the Phillies, they acquired one pitcher to help them in the present (Vance Worley) and one for the future (Trevor May). In Worley, the Twins landed a somewhat seasoned middle-of-the-rotation starter who has above-average movement. But Worley had recent elbow issues, necessitating the addition of the Phillies’ top prospect, May. May’s pedigree is strong. His velocity ranges up to 95 complimented with a decent curve and an improving changeup. Unlike the majority of his Minnesota pitching prospect counterparts, May has been able to get batters “out” by throwing three “strikes”. On his way to these “strike outs”, he has avoided bats but also the strike zone as well – an aspect of his game which may have soured the Phillies on his potential. Now in the Twins’ system, can they get the maximum return out of his abilities and turn him into a top of the rotation arm? Within the 2012 season, the 22-year-old May impressively led the Eastern League in strikeouts (151), exhibiting dominance at times over his elder competition in his first stint Double-A ball. However, he also topped the league in walks (78) and home runs allowed (22). Both are somewhat disconcerting figures coming from the Phillies’ minor league pitcher of the year in 2011. The home runs allowed spiked significantly from eight total the previous year – certainly a byproduct of leaving the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and facing tougher competition – but the walk rate also increased after showing signs of improvement in his command in 2011. The struggle with his control is nothing new to May. In his first three years of professional baseball, while compiling impressive strikeout numbers, the right-hander walked 13.7% of all batters faced. In efforts to correct this issue, the Phillies attempted to corral his mechanics and smooth them out. According to May after his 2011 season, in which he made inroads towards bettering his free pass rates, he told reporters that: Although he may have made some significant strides in the overall quality, there was a remaining kink in his delivery. From , one thing that jumps out about May’s mechanics is an unstable balance point which affects his ability to keep everything consistent and encourages rushing through his delivery. Here are some stills of May at his balance point and while beginning to drive forward. Notice how his back foot is coming unglued from the rubber: Download attachment: May_1.jpg Download attachment: May_2.jpg Download attachment: May_3.jpg While this is isolated to his wind-up and not a trait exhibited on each delivery, it was something that likely influenced his overall command. Compare the above images to one of the other recent prospect acquisition, Alex Meyer. Notice how Meyer’s back foot stays flush and allows his upper body to remain balanced at the peak of his delivery: Download attachment: Meyer_1.jpg The Phillies coaching staff and instructors likely noticed this problem area and have tried to get him to adjust. In 2012, while in Double-A Reading, May closed his pre-delivery stance thereby reducing the additional foot movement and, hopefully, leading to a more stable balance point. Download attachment: May_4.jpg Download attachment: May_5.jpg So far, the change led to more walks (not to mention, home runs). Now, this could be a byproduct of adapting to a new delivery or it could be that the change never corrected his balance problem. At 23 in 2013, the Twins have the opportunity to continue to hone May’s mechanics in attempts to harness his above-average velocity and swing-and-miss secondary offerings. As the organization sets their sights to 2014 and beyond, May's progress - particularly in the walks department - will be closely monitored as they try to refine him into a frontline starter. Click here to view the article

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3807[/ATTACH]Let’s just say Brian Dozier has had a slow start to his 2013 season. Repping a less than stellar.189/.279/.243 batting line through his first 44 plate appearances, the Twins’ second baseman has been extremely inoffensive and has statistically continued where he left off during following his demotion in August of last year. Despite this slow beginning, there is reasons to not lose hope that Dozier’s career will fall into a no-hit middle infielder that has plagued the Twins for the better part of the new millennium.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The first encouraging sign from Dozier is that he is (1) sporting a much improved strikeout-to-walk ratio. This is supremely important to any future success for the middle infielder. As a minor leaguer, Dozier owned a decent 1.2 strikeouts-to-walks ratio – meaning he drew nearly as many walks as he did strikeout. When he was promoted to the majors last year, that ability to hone the zone dissipated. He took just 16 walks in 340 plate appearances while striking out 58 times - or a 3.63 strikeout-to-walk ratio – a true indicator that he was not completely comfortable at the major league level. But, through 13 games this year, he’s had a much improved walk rate and has a 1.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, closer mirroring his minor league track record. Those few free passes in 2012 resulted in a 4.7% walk rate which placed him in the bottom third in that category. Much of that derived from overextending the strike zone (35% out-of-zone swing rate compared to the 30% league average) and having an overall overzealous approach at the plate. Again, in the small sampling this year, he’s increased his walk rate to a significantly improved 11.4% - the fifth-highest among qualified second basemen. The story has been slightly different for Dozier in 2013. He has trimmed his swing zone down to a more manageable area (chasing just 26% of out-of-zone pitches) and has been able to fight off a high number pitches to extend his at bats. So far this year, he’s 39% of his strikes have originated from foul balls while the rest of the league’s average is 27%. Consider this: When Ron Gardenhire put him in the lead-off spot after Darin Mastroianni was pushed to the DL on Tuesday, Dozier’s first at bat against the Angels’ Jason Vargas consisted of him fouling off five fastballs – working the left-hander over for ten pitches total. While the at bat resulted in an out, Dozier got Vargas’s pitch count rising from the get-go. In the fourth inning, he got enough of Vargas’s 0-2 down-and-dirty curve in order to see a fastball the next pitch which he drilled into right field for a base hit. Fouling off pitches is not a repeatable skill, per se, but it has aided him in prolonging his at bats which has led to a higher frequency of walks. The end game -- more walks and high on-base percentage -- bodes very well for Dozier’s contributions for the rest of the season. The second reason Dozier is rather than attempting to pull every pitch, he’s (2) going the other way and back up the middle. Check out his breakdown of batted balls by direction hit from last year to this year: [TABLE=align: center] [TD=colspan: 4]Dozier’s Batted Ball By Location[/TD] [/TD][TD]Pulled Center Opposite 2012 40% 41% 19% 2013 26% 37% 37% [/TABLE] Without question, Dozier is going the other way with the pitches that are on the outer-half of the strike zone rather than trying to yank everything under the sun. As I outlined at Twins Daily last year, opponents recognized this tendency and lambasted him with fastball away and an abundance of sliders. I concluded that analysis by writing: “Specifically for Dozier, offensive progress means trying to re-calibrate his swing zone. If pitchers are going to continue to pound away, make sure you start going with that pitch instead of turning it over (CC: Danny Valencia). If they are trying to get you to fish, try to wait for something in the zone (which is always easier said than done). Being a successful everyday contributor means being able to make adjustments quickly.” As mentioned above, Dozier’s keying in on pitches in the zone better. Additionally, what we see out of him is a much better ability to go with the pitch rather than turn on everything. He is allowing the ball to travel deeper into the zone before contact. As such, he keeps his weight back well and that helps drive the ball to center and opposite field. Here’s a still comparison of the point of impact and his improved mechanical balance. The first two images are his swings in 2013. Notice how he has a firm front side and keeps his weight back on these pitches middle-up and middle-away: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1366379669_Dozier_1.PNG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Dozier_2.PNG There are examples of swings that Dozier displayed in spring training, in which I advised to watch for this year. While the results have been not been there, the form is much better. Compare those two examples to two from 2012. Both instances came against left-handed pitches, both locations were away and both wound up grounders to the left side. In both cases, Dozier’s weight gets out in front of him as he reaches for – and pulls – both pitches thrown on the outer-half of the zone. Notice, too, that his front foot comes unglued in the samples. This is creating a less than solid base to swing from. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Dozier_3.PNG http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Dozier_4.PNG Dozier has a much more solid fundamental approach at the plate this season - something that was not present a year ago. With a more discriminating eye at the plate and now functional mechanics in place to drive the ball to all areas of the ballpark, his numbers should steadily improve as the season progresses. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hendriks.jpg Liam Hendriks could very well be one of the five starting pitchers the Minnesota Twins take north when camp breaks at the end of the month. He has the minor league numbers to show that he capable of retiring batters. He just needs to do the same against major league hitters. One area he needs to improve on in 2013 is achieving better result when he releases a slider from his fingertips. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Coming off the season he had last year, no one would blame him from shelving the pitch indefinitely. Just under 200 times, Hendriks twirled his slider towards home. He retired a batter on that pitch in less than 5% of those occasions – the lowest rate in baseball with a minimum of 100 pitches in 2012. On seven instances, that slider became a home run. Admittedly, six other pitchers managed to surrender more jack jobs on the slide piece but those pitchers also threw the breaking ball at least 300 more times than Hendriks did. Those are some stomach-churning results. A 2012 interview with MILB.com’s Andrew Pentis may help illuminate Hendriks’ struggles with the pitch. According to the interview, the then Rochester Red Wing told Pentis that he had acquired the slider in 2008 from former reliever Graeme Lloyd, another hurler of Australian descent who was coaching down under. Hendriks said that the slider is his “fourth pitch”, behind his two fastballs and change, and he likes to throw it in on lefties and away to righties. When it comes to the latter, therein lies the problem. Last year I examined some of Hendriks’ tendencies and video to find that his closed landing foot causes an inability to hit the outer-half of the plate to righties as effectively as he would hitting the inside corner. Here we see his heat map of where his slider crossed the plate: Download attachment: HendriksSlider.jpg While it appears that he is trying to work away with his slider -- as evidenced by his sporadic spotting down and away -- the majority of his offerings fall within the zone, specifically in the dreaded “middle-middle” location. These are easily feasted upon and have led to a .341 average against (15-for-44) with seven of those hits becoming home runs in 2012. His second start of the spring, a three-inning affair, showed promise that his future remains bright. Following the game, Hendriks told reporters that he had been working on his mechanics: Hendriks continued by saying he did want to remain closed “a little bit” to add to the deception. That may not be a bad thing. After all, it may be a part of this deception which allowed him to maintain a reverse split: a .786 OPS facing lefties and a .998 OPS facing righties. But the improvement in the motion could be enough to allow for better placement of his slider – something that he told reporters felt better after his second spring start. With sustained success in the majors his ultimate goal, finding a stable breaking offering to throw to right-handers will be somewhat critical. If this mechanical adjustment can help facilitate that, then he may be able to replicate some of his minor league triumphs at the big league level. Click here to view the article

Age: 21 (DOB: 05/09/1991) 2012 Stats (A+/AA): .320/.388/.539, 17 HR, 98 RBI, 76 R, 4/9 SB ETA: 2013 It has been a while since the Minnesota Twins had major league ready offensive talent in their farm system knocking on the door of the big club. Outfielder Oswaldo Arcia appears to be wiping his feet at the welcome mat. Of course, there are just a few more steps - and players - ahead of him. One of the few areas of surplus in the Twins’ organization has been center field talent. In addition to Denard Span and Ben Revere, looming at the upper levels were Joe Benson and Aaron Hicks. Behind those two is Byron Buxton, the 2012 number two overall draft choice. If one were monitoring the pipeline, it became clear that for one position, some players were either going to move out of the middle of the outfield or be moved out of the organization. The Twins front office cleared some room quickly when they dealt Span and Revere this offseason, opening up a vacancy in both center and right. While Benson and Hicks will audition for the role of center this spring, Chris Parmelee, a first baseman by trade but an outfielder by necessity, is the front-runner to start in right field. Parmelee’s tenure in right appears to be a less-than-permanent job placement if Arcia continues to club the ball as well as he has the past two seasons. Arcia’s progress through the pipeline was stymied in 2011 when in early May, pain in his throwing elbow called for clean-up surgery that sidelined him for two months. Coming off of a season in which he tore through Appalachian League pitching in 2010, this injury abbreviated what should have been his first full season. Undeterred, the Venezuelan outfielder continued where he left off the previous year and mashed his way from the Gulf Coast League to the Florida State League – with a brief stop off in the Midwest League. In all, he accumulated just over 300 plate appearances and posted a respectable .866 OPS as a 20-year-old. Asked to repeat the 2012 season back at Fort Myers, this gave Arcia some additional at-bats in the offensively-challenged Florida State League. For some, the FSL can be a humbling experience for young hitters. Between the heat, humidity, the size of the ballparks and the advanced college pitchers, players who were putting up eye-popping numbers in the rookie and low-A leagues are often brought back down to Earth upon landing in America’s coastal swamps. It’s largely an environment where the men are separated from the boys and the prospects from the pretenders. Arcia’s half-season with the Miracle reaffirmed that he was definitely a legitimate prospect. While the average hitter in the league held a .373 slugging percentage, Arcia was one of five players in the league to have a slugging percentage over .500. Pushed up to New Britain and Double-A ball, as a 21-year-old in a league with an average age of 24, Arcia simply raked and emerged as a genuine run producer. At one point, he drove in 67 runs over the course of 69 games. The Good: Thick in the truck and stout in the upper body, Arcia has a bulldog-like build that consumes the left-handed batter’s box. Coupled with a strong hip transition, he is able to repeatedly make solid contact and power by keeping his hands close to his body and thereby creating leverage, as shown below: This is an example of a pitch on the middle-to-outer third of the plate. Arcia is able to keep his hands close to his body and drive that pitch to the left-center gap for a double. With the spacious Target Field the ultimate goal for any Twins prospect, having line drive power to all fields – particularly in the expansive gap-to-gap region on the ballpark – is a very coveted skill. The Bad: Like most left-handed hitters at his age, Arcia has struggled some against same-sided pitching. Over the past two years, his OPS has been two hundred points lower when facing left-handers versus right-handers. Are the Twins concerned about his splits? Not entirely says Twins’ Director of Minor League Operations, Brad Steil. “Not concerned, but as with many young left-handed hitters, we know it’s an area he’ll need to keep working on. He did show improvement in the second half with New Britain last season.” That’s very true. After hitting .210/.286/.306 in 70 plate appearances against southpaws with Fort Myers, Arcia hit .319/.400/.464 over his next 80 plate appearances against lefties while in New Britain. Is this small sample size success or a sign of progress? The Bottom Line: Will Arcia get the call at some point this year? “Any potential contribution in the major leagues will depend on his progression and performance and an available opportunity,” Steil answered diplomatically. Obviously there is not a need for a corner outfielder at this point. That said, could certain moves in-season prompt an opening? Perhaps trading a soon-to-be free agent first baseman or moving the current starting left fielder into a full-time designated hitter role would make room. If Arcia continues to produce at the same pace as he did last season, it may be a “when” not “if” scenario for the Minnesota Twins. [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #10: Max Kepler] [TD’s Top Ten Prospects: #9: Trevor May] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #8: J. O. Berrios] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #7 Eddie Rosario] [TD's Top Ten Prospects: #6 Kyle Gibson] [TD's Top Ten Prospects; #5 Alex Meyer] View full article

On Friday night’s Fox Sports North broadcast of the Twins game, Dick and Bert talked about some things the coaching staff had relayed to them about Francisco Liriano and his upcoming start. Pitching coach Rick Anderson said that the key to getting Liriano back to his spring training form in which he was producing a lot of strikeouts and keeping from walking hitters was to ease up on throwing his two-seamed fastball so much. Interestingly enough, the Twins insistence a year ago for Liriano to throw more two-seamers, a pitch whose action runs away from right-handed hitters, in order to induce more contact and throw fewer pitches in each start caused a stir among analysts. Now, unable to command this pitch, the Twins are requesting that he ditch it and opt to use the straighter four-seam fastball. Anderson told reporters that: "After awhile I said, 'What did you do in spring?' He said, 'I threw a lot more four-seam fastballs; now I'm throwing too many two-seamers and giving the hitter too much credit.' I said, 'How did you do in spring? That was pretty good. Let's get back to it.' " Download attachment: Liriano_FBVel.jpg Liriano has demonstrated very little in terms of consistency when throwing his two-seamer this year. It has been located up in the zone far too much, resulting in fly balls instead of the coveted ground balls that he used to induce. According to Pitch F/X, he has not thrown too many four-seamers but the ones he had tossed are also up in the zone. Part of this effect goes back to the mechanical issue that I described earlier this week where he is flying open with his lower half which makes commanding his pitches that much more difficult. Liriano’s velocity was also lacking but has been increasing over the course of his three starts. In his first game he was averaging just 90.8 on the heater but that grew to 91.2 in his start versus the Angels. In his most recent outing at Yankee Stadium, his velocity was up to 93.2 (perhaps in attempts to impress one of the organizations that showed interest in him). If he can maintain that 93-mph average and hit his spots, he is certainly capable of rebounding this year. With patience running thin on Liriano’s lack of production, the Twins are trying to see if they can get him to a point where mentally he feels more comfortable. And if he feels more comfortable throwing his four-seamer, this may translate into him returning to a more relaxed and proper motion which could lead to better pitching. Liriano gets the call today against the Rays so keep an eye out for the straighter version of his fastball. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: uspw_6460472.jpg The Twins announced today that they have released Tsuyoshi Nishioka at his request. The middle infielder will relieve the Twins of their 2013 obligations, saving the team $3.25 million ($3M in salary and $250,000 in a buyout). The highly touted Japanese free agent never adapted well to the game at the highest level, hitting .215/.267/.236 in 254 plate appearances while provided terribly disappointing defense in the field. You can leave your comments here. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Josh Johnson.jpg Baseball agent Matt Sosnick speaks strongly of loyalty, honesty and trust in his industry. His agency, Sosnick Cobbe Sports, was grown from scratch in the hills above the San Francisco Bay and relies on building relationships, sticking with clients regardless of on-field performance and adheres to principles such as automatically dropping players who engage in detrimental activity like domestic violence. He discusses his clients as friends rather than means to a paycheck. Character above all. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It probably should come as no surprise then that he holds the Minnesota Twins operations in high regard for similar reasons. When asked his perception of the organization, Sosnick raved. “First of all, I love the Twins,” he admitted. “I obviously have had lots of players who have run through there the past few years. I have [Josh] Willingham and [Ryan] Doumit. I have a very close relationship with both [assistant GM] Rob Antony and [vice president of player development] Mike Radcliff and there’s no GM that I respect more than Terry Ryan.” That may seem like an odd response from a person whose livelihood is tied to how much a team is willing pay for one of his clients and, so far, the Twins have not been exactly a blank check. In fact, Willingham’s 2012 contract has been the richest free agent contract the team has distributed to date. What is interesting is that had Willingham’s home been further west, he may never have been a Twin to begin with. When fans wonder why their team didn’t sign a particular free agent, there are factors that go beyond just the dollars and cents. As a free agent after the 2011 season, Sosnick fielded an offer from a West Coast team that was superior to that of the Twins. But Willingham, who calls Alabama home, opted to sign with Minnesota because it was in closer proximity to his family and turned down more money in the process. Willingham’s reign as the team’s highest compensated free agent may come to an end this winter and one of Sosnick’s other clients could be the one to dethrone him. Among the Sosnick Cobbe client list are Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Randy Messenger -- three pitchers in who the Twins have had varying degrees of interest. Under different circumstances, Johnson could have been the headliner of the offseason. At just 30 years old, Johnson has battled both shoulder inflammation (2011) and elbow issues (2013) that have curbed his innings over the past three seasons. More importantly, it has curbed teams’ appetite for doling out a large contract.. “He’s probably got the highest upside of any free agent pitcher,” says Sosnick, “but when you factor in the amount of games he started the last few years and the amount of different injuries he’s had you realize, in our case, our choice was to take a shot at a two or three-year deal or take a shot a one-year where we rebuild his value. There’s no question that we are going to go after a one-year and try to rebuild his value because he’s going to be treated as an injury liability -- even though I think he’s totally healthy right now -- but I understand that mindset.” While Johnson could profile as a top of the rotation arm, does a pitcher with his injury history make sense for the organization? Mike Radcliff does not seem to think so. According to the Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino, Radcliff said that if Johnson’s asking price is $10 million or more, the club would likely pass. That said, the Twins severely lack an ace and Johnson could be that guy. As an agent, would Sosnick ever try to convince a team that Johnson, who is coming off a bad conventional season but demonstrated decent peripherals that may indicate a positive future, is the right fit for them? “I find that too presumptuous on my part. Am I really going to convince Mike Radcliff that his scouting analyses of a player are off because I tell him something -- given the fact that I’ve never scouted a player in my life and Mike’s done it professionally his whole life? I find the thought distasteful and if I put myself in the reverse situation I would be insulted. That’s not what I do.” Perhaps more conducive to the team’s long term vision is Sosnick’s other former Marlins pitcher, Nolasco. “[Nolasco’s] probably is the most sure thing in the marketplace and that comes without a qualifying offer. That’s a huge thing for a team to sign a guy who you can pencil in for 200 innings a year, never gets hurt and you don’t have to give up a draft pick for him.” Not having to surrender a draft pick means a lot to teams that, unlike the Twins, have unprotected first round picks which could make him more desirable. Sosnick says he and Nolasco are seeking a five-year deal, but currently are speaking with numerous teams about four years. During his interview for the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, Ryan flinched at the thought of signing 30-year-old pitchers, stating that those over that age have a tendency to break down. With Nolasco seeking up to five years, his contract length may cause the team to balk. Still, as Sosnick hinted to Berardino, the Twins have expressed interest in the right-hander. And as Sosnick said there could be the possibility of using a club option in the contract to bridge the gap and protect the team in the event of an injury. The last notable free agent pitcher in the Sosnick Cobbe stable is Randy Messenger, who is coming off a strong stint in Japan. “Outside of [Masahiro Tanaka] who needs to get posted, Messenger’s a free agent in the States this year and he led the Japanese league last year in strikeouts, innings pitched and games started. He has really strong peripherals and ERA the last two years in Japan and was a totally dominant guy this year. He’s not a Tanaka but he’s the next best thing.” The Twins flirted with Messenger a bit last offseason but Messenger ultimately returned to Japan and had another strong season which could be emphasized since that Japanese league switched to a new baseball which increased the offensive production. Did Messenger notice the difference? “He did say that he felt like pitching to an ERA in the 2.00’s this year was more challenging than the two years before that. He felt like ERA-wise, it affected the ERA by a quarter of a point. So a 2.90 was about the equivalent of 2.65 in the past.” Messenger could turn into a Colby Lewis who refined his style in Japan before returning to the Texas Rangers and putting up impressive numbers. Maybe more importantly to a team not looking spend as much on one starting pitcher, Messenger should not command as much as Nolasco in dollars or years. When it comes to discussing contracts with the Twins, the front office avoids lengthy contracts with free agent pitchers. Still, Sosnick respects them all the same. “The Twins are run by the three guys I know -- Terry [Ryan], Rob [Antony] and Mike Radcliff -- and all three of them would be great GMs anywhere right now. They are great evaluators of talent, nice people, easy to do business with and honest. You won’t find three more honest guys then those three guys. The Twins are not as easy to do business with financially as the Yankees or Dodgers, they don’t have the same deep pockets, but we keep sending our guys to the Twins because they are honest, honorable people. The front office represents baseball as well as anybody does.” Sosnick’s relationship with the Twins organization goes beyond just his major league clients. In 2009, the Walnut Creek-based agency was representing who some scouts considered to be the best player to come from Europe in 16-year-old Max Kepler. There was plenty of interest in the toolsy, six-foot-four outfielder who was just a few months removed from growing his first facial hair. “When Max Kepler was out there,” Sosnick reminisced, “we had an offer that was higher than what the Twins’ final offer was and we had him go to the Twins because we really believed in their player development and a lot of that had to do with our relationship with Mike at the time.” Kepler has advanced slowly in the minor league system. At 20 years old he finished his first season at low-A (albeit injury-abbreviated) and has performed well in the Arizona Fall League despite unattractive numbers. As Baseball America’s John Manuel noted a few weeks ago the Twins expect to see the large statured Kepler add some power to his repertoire through additional conditioning this offseason resulting in more over-the-fence distance in 2014. In just a few seasons, Kepler could be patrolling a corner outfield spot in a Twins uniform and, reflecting back, Sosnick is happy with their decision to sign with Minnesota. “Kepler went to Minnesota because we like their player development,” he said, “we felt like they would do the best job of assimilating a 16-year-old from Germany. We made the right choice. He went to high school during the day and played in the afternoon and the Twins bent over backwards to make him as comfortable as possible. And it just reinforced the decision that we made.” Sosnick’s opinion of the Twins’ organization may or may not be shared throughout his industry. Then again, Sosnick’s approach does not seems shared by the rest of his industry. He and his agency remain committed to doing the best for the clients and place them in ideal situations -- like Willingham’s desire to remain closer to his family or considering Kepler’s comfort level -- rather than the ones that garner the most dollars. Click here to view the article

Last night saw a near vintage Francisco Liriano carving up his now former team. In six innings of work, the lefty punched out eight Twins batters, showcasing a well-placed 94 mile per hour fastball and a devastating slide piece. It was this first weapon, the well-placed fastball, which would have been inconceivable in the season’s opening months. Liriano’s first half of the season was marred by lack of command of his fastball. Unable to get ahead of hitters properly, the left-hander was forced to ease up on his usage of his slider. In his first stint as a starter, opponents smacked him around to the tune of .346/.435/.589 while allowing six home runs in six starts and 26.2 innings pitched. The home runs allowed were a direct result of Liriano being unable to induce ground balls are easily as he did in the past. With fastballs up in the zone, Liriano’s ground ball-to-fly ball ratio sat at 0.69 which, heading into this season, sat at a much higher grounder rate of 0.96. As you will see, Liriano’s fastball location had a lot to do with his mechanics. Over his career one of Liriano’s biggest struggles seemed to be battling against his delivery. His short-arm action, the various tempos and, of course, his tendency to spin out after landing have been trademarks of his style. At times, he will be able to corral this mess into some conformity and consistency for an extended period of time that will lead to strong numbers – such as in 2010. At other points, like at the beginning of the season, he will be in an utter tailspin and be completely lost when it comes to his motion. What we saw during his first stretch of starts this year was Liriano pulling his weight away from home plate and towards the third base side. This movement away from the target likely caused numerous problems for his command. In this early season match-up against Evan Longoria of the Rays, Joe Mauer sits down and in with a target at Longoria’s knees: Download attachment: Liriano_LongoriaLocation.JPG Instead of painting that spot, Liriano’s offering travels up, slightly above the belt, over the plate: Download attachment: Liriano_LongoriaResult.JPG With a pitch that high in the zone, Liriano is not likely to induce many ground balls. For his part, Longoria smacked this one for a double. What’s more, with a target miss that significant, you can see why he walked 19 batters in 26.2 innings. Fast forward to Tuesday night. Now in uniform with his new team, Liriano had been working on an impressive stretch of outings in which his strikeout rate was up, his walk rate was down and his ground ball rate had increased. Including yesterday’s performance, over his last 12 starts, Liriano has held opponents to a .189/.285/.301 batting line with a very good 87/33 K/BB ratio in 72 innings pitched while only allowing six home runs (three of which came in his start against Chicago). Because of his ability to command his fastball early and often, Liriano has been able to use his slider more, resulting in more swing and misses as well as weak contact (0.98 GB/FB). In the controversial Joe Mauer at-bat, Liriano rang the Twins catcher up on a fastball that likely crossed between the batter’s box chalk and the plate. Nevertheless, it was because of A.J. Pierzynski’s location and Liriano’s ability to hit that target that Liriano was able to coax a strike call out of the umpire. Pierzynski sits down and in on Mauer, not unlike Mauer’s target on Longoria above perhaps slightly above the knee more: Download attachment: Liriano_MauerLocation.JPG Not only does Liriano hit this spot, but his fastball is also running down and in. Had Mauer decided to swing at that pitch, the results would have a high probability of becoming a ground ball: Download attachment: Liriano_MauerResult.JPG The biggest difference between the two versions comes at Liriano’s release point. In his offering to Longoria, Liriano’s lower body is opening up at the point of release. This was a trait he displayed constantly through his first month of starts. Meanwhile, in his pitch to Mauer, he is staying over his front leg which is directed to his target: Download attachment: Liriano_LongoriaRelease.JPG Download attachment: Liriano_MauerRelease.JPG Many fans wonder why the Twins, instead of trading for some marginal prospects, simply did not opt to keep Liriano and hope of getting him to re-up for the $12.5 million qualifying offer. After all, his second half performance has been close to vintage Liriano from 2010 – after which most people would have been very happy extending him a long-term contract. The one-year risk, even at that price, seemed minimal. For their part, the Twins organization had seen too many inconsistencies (not to mention injuries) like the one highlighted above to commit another year at that price. We know that the front office is risk adverse in both their free agent signings and their long-term commitments. Still, credit the White Sox for landing a pitcher who had been trending upwards and exercising better mechanics at a low cost. Will Liriano be able to maintain these mechanics over the course of the rest of the season or, going forward, over an entire contract? By trading him away, the Twins clearly do not believe that he can sustain this pace. In my opinion, barring any injury, Liriano should finish this season out strong and will be a high-risk, high-reward signing for another team this offseason. Click here to view the article

After the split series in New York - one in which the bullpen absorbed 70% of the innings in four games - the Minnesota Twins relievers head to Tampa feeling more taxed than the Dutch population. (Yeah, that’s right: tax humor.) On Thursday, Anthony Swarzak, a rotation fill-in who is lobbying for a more permanent position, coaxed Ron Gardenhire out of the dugout once again prematurely, ending his night without getting out of the third inning. Swarzak, in his previous start, had kept the mighty Rangers lineup at bay for seven innings, allowing just four runs to a team that has averaged 5.75 runs per game. However, his game plan was exposed during the Rangers’ second trip through the order as they sat on what had become a predictable first-pitch fastball. In fact, of the first 14 Texas hitters Swarzak threw 12 fastball and just two non-fastballs. When the word got out in the visitor’s dugout, one of the most potent lineups was swinging out of their shoes at the first offering. To his credit Swarzak made some adjustments and to the final 16 hitters he faced on the night, he threw 14 non-fastballs and just two fastballs to start them off. A one-time Baseball America Top 100 prospect (okay, he was number 100 in 2006, but still…), Swarzak showed decent command of his secondary pitches, hammering a curveball down on right-handers and fading a change-up to lefties. This combination seemingly kept the Rangers as balanced as a two-legged table. So, heading into his third start of the year and facing a lineup just as frightening in the Yankees (5.17 runs per game), Swarzak had to ensure that he did not fall into the same pratfalls as he did the Rangers lineup – particularly because of the unforgiving corner outfield fences – and apply his off-speed offerings liberally throughout the night. Unfortunately, while the Yankees did not hone in on his first-pitch fastballs (which he threw to 12 of 17 hitters) they did find themselves in favorable counts when he was unable to either throw his secondary stuff for strikes or entice hitters to expand the zone: In the first, he was unable to get Curtis Granderson to swing at any of the two-strike changeups and was forced to throw two consecutive 3-2 fastballs – one of which Granderson popped up over the slow-pitch softball fence.Several batters later, Swarzak started Mark Teixiera off with a change for a ball and fed the big first baseman a fastball out over the plate on a predictable fastball count, only to watch it disappear in center.In the second, Swarzak started Granderson out with two fastballs, missed with a changeup and then, after falling behind 3-0, came back with two more fastballs (the second of which became a souvenir).Against Texas he managed to locate his secondary stuff for strikes 68% of the time while in New York, that rate dropped to 58% as he struggled with his changeup to lefties. Had Swarzak demonstrated better command over his changeup last night, he may have been able to avoid the punishment dished out by Granderson and Teixeira. As you can see from his Pitch F/X game chart, Swarzak was not unable to keep his curveball (pink squares) down in the zone consistently nor was he able to keep his changeup (yellow squares) down and away from left-handed bats: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Swarzak_NY.png http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Swarzak_TEX.png Without being able to keep hitters off of his fastball, Swarzak stands to be subjected to heavy damage. Meanwhile, tonight’s starter is Swarzak’s direct competition for the last spot in the rotation, Liam Hendriks. Like Swarzak, Hendriks kept the Rangers lineup subdued in his last start, working six innings while allowing just one run – a home run to Mike Napoli. And, also like Swarzak, Hendriks does not have overpowering stuff but rather leans on changing speeds and hitting spots in order to succeed. Where the two differ is that Hendriks had a much higher tendency of “pitching backwards”, that is throwing off-speed stuff in fastball counts. That and his secondary pitches are significantly better. Hendriks, who tops out around 91-mph, can supplement his fastball with a near 20-mile-an-hour difference on his curveball which he throws at 73-mph on average. This certainly kept Rangers hitters from focusing too much on the fastball while having to respect the deuce. Additionally, while having to monitor the zone for that slow break, his fastball undoubtedly appears much quicker because of the differential. Lastly, because he throws across his body (his landing foot is towards the third base line rather than home plate) he has a unique release point that comes at an irregular angle and provides added deception for the Australian hurler. Although Swarzak has pitched well in two of three starts and is a serviceable emergency starter, of the two, Hendriks has the higher upside and should remain in the rotation if or when the decision needs to be made. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: natinals_display_image.jpg The Big Picture At the All Star Break last year, the Washington Nationals were playing .500 baseball (46-46) but were already 11.5 games back behind the National League East leading Phillies. To be sure, it was just their second non-losing first half of the season since they emigrated from Montreal. Prior to last season, DC had entered just one midseason classic with a winning record. When MLB moved the Expos to the nation’s capital, the newly christen Nationals posted a 52-36 record heading into the All Star Break, leading the division by two-and-a-half games. Of course, Washington would go 29-45 in the season’s back half and wind up in last place. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This season, the Nationals, fueled by some incredible young talent (Bryce Harper) and outstanding pitching (3.21 ERA, best in MLB), have produced their second winning first-half – going 49-34 with a four game lead over the Atlanta Braves. Why They Will Trade With The Twins Selling “Hope” has played well in Washington in the political world. Now the Nationals are attempting to convince their fans that it exists for them in the NL East too. It won’t be easy with the big spending teams like the Braves, Mets and Marlins breathing down their necks so the Nationals’ general manager Mike Rizzo will be making calls in July to see what is available to help push his team over that hump. And, let’s face it: the Twins have made for very good trade partners in the past as well. Rizzo did a job picking Wilson Ramos (season-ending knee surgery notwithstanding) and, if you believed last trade deadline’s reports, he nearly got the Twins to hand over Denard Span for…ROGER BERNADINA. (Yes, Span was still struggling through concussion symptoms but good god, ROGER BERNADINA?) Based on those two instances, I’d say Rizzo has found himself an organization in which he can sell oceanfront property in Arizona. Given their need to appease the fan base in a heavily competitive DC/Baltimore market combined with the complete lack of a legitimate lead-off hitter (as a group they are posting a .306 on-base percentage), there is probably a strong chance that Rizzo would pick up the phone and see if the Twins are still interested in Span-for-Bernadina. Why They Won’t Trade With the Twins Aside from Span, there is not much on the menu that would appeal to this team. Their pitching staff is Jim Morrison poetry deep and even their need for a center fielder has quelled since moving uber-stud Harper to the middle of the outfield. While Span’s +21 Plus/Minus in center field is the best in baseball, Harper’s +12 is not far behind (fifth among center fielders). What’s more is the Nationals’ mix of Mike Morse in left, Andy LaRoche at first and Jayson Werth impending return from the DL to return to right field means Harper might need to stay in center. Also, it’s worth noting that Washington’s minor league pitching depth is fairly thin after the Nationals unloaded three of their top arms to Oakland in exchange for Gio Gonzalez. What is left might not be appealing to the Twins either. Conclusion The Nationals will be buyers but it would appear that if they are not interested in Span - or maybe a reunion with Jamey Carroll as a back-up infielder - there may not be a match with the Twins. ---- Possible Trade Targets Steve Lombardozzi Jr – INF/OF The Son of Lombo in the same lineup with the Son of Sal (Butera)? Whoa. The 23-year-old Lombardozzi has been ousted from his second base position by Danny Espinosa and has been shifted to left field where his bat is a complete miscast. He’s shown good on-base acumen in the minors (career .369 OBP) but has not had that manifest in his 238 plate appearances at the major league level (career .313 OBP). He intrigued the Twins last year when they were discussing a Span trade. Drew Storen – Closer Gosh, you’d hate to think that the Twins would target recently damaged goods like Storen but damn do they love them some Proven Closer. With Storen rehabbing his way back to the Nationals as we speak, the Twins have no clear cut plans for the backend of the bullpen in the coming years. The 24-year-old Storen would in theory give them stability at a cheap price in 2013 but comes with risks. Matthew Skole – Third Base At six-foot-four and 230 pounds, Skole is a monster at third base. His left-handed power has certainly manifested in his second professional season. In 319 plate appearances in 2011, he hit five home runs in low-A. This year, in 370 plate appearances, he’s hit 21 home runs and is leading the Sally League. His glove is questionable so he might be destined for another position than his current one. Rob Wort – RHRP If the team is in need of some bullpen depth, the 23-year-old Rob Wort might be an interesting plus-one in any potential trade. Repeating High-A ball for the second consecutive year, he’s struck out 63 in 38.1 innings while walking just 13. It is the latter that is important as Wort’s control had been terrible in 2011 (he walked 27 in 36.2 innings). He throws a low-90s fastball but can clearly miss bats. Roger Bernadina - OF No. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hendriks2.jpg On Thursday night, the Minnesota Twins showcased two of their potential starters for their remaining rotation vacancy – Liam Hendriks and Cole Devries. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Together, the pair silenced the Yankees’ bats over eight innings, allowing just one unearned run over eight innings. Of course, spring training is not about the results but the process. For Hendriks, that process included peppering in more non-fastballs. As was discussed during the Fox Sports North broadcast, the Twins staff were looking for Hendriks to mix in more of his secondary offerings after he became what they felt was too reliant on his fastball during his last outing. “It was coming out of my hand well,” Hendriks told reports afterwards. “Curveball was good. Mainly slider to the righties, curveball to the lefties." Perhaps Hendriks’ biggest issue right now is his inability to shut down right-handed hitters. Last year, lefties slapped him around to the tune of .768 OPS. Righties, meanwhile, torched him with a 1.020 OPS. Among starters with a minimum of 30 innings against right-handed hitters, Hendriks’ .351 batting average was the highest in baseball. Against righties, he is a two-pitch pitcher, arming himself with a fastball and a slider. The slider, up to this point in his career, has been a detriment to his success. According to BaseballProspectus.com’s leaderboard, Hendriks’ slider created the lowest percentage of outs in baseball last year. His slider had “put away” just 4.1% of hitters on the times it was thrown, making it terribly ineffective. C.C. Sabathia, a Yankee sitting across the field from Hendriks yesterday, managed to retire 32% of his opponents on that pitch – the highest rate in baseball. It does not take a math major to realize there is a huge chasm between the results of Sabathia’s offering and the one Hendriks spins. Did we learn anything new from this most recent spring start? Probably not. After all, the Yankees only threw out three right-handed hitters against Hendriks: Kevin Youkilis, Eduardo Nunez and Francisco Cervelli. A literal non-Murderer’s Row of Yankee sluggers. Nevertheless, to his credit, with the exception of the fourth-inning walk to the shaved Youkilis, Hendriks did his job – none of the aforementioned righties reached base. I’ve cited several times over that one of Hendriks’s biggest issues is his slider and the coaching staff likely recognizes this as well. During his last bullpen session prior to the start, the 24 year-old struggled with his secondary offerings’ location. “During my bullpen, during my offspeed, I could not locate a single thing,” Hendriks told reporters. “It was disgraceful. [Anderson] said ‘Stay back, stay relaxed.’” Unquestionably, the curveball looked sharp. He maintained a strong 12-to-6 break with this pitch and kept the Yankees’ left-handed unit at bay, one that included renowned sluggers like Travis Hafner and World Baseball Classic winner, Robinson Cano. Hendriks’ fastball command helped set up that giant breaking ball and kept the lefties off-balanced for the duration of his outing. But there were occasions in while he seemed to lack the confidence in that pitch. During an early battle with Hafner, the Aussie held a 2-2 advantage but shook catcher Drew Butera off twice before throwing a fastball (a ball) and then followed it up with a second fastball (fouled off) before missing with a curve. The shake-off could have been a cat-and-mouse game of shaking off a fastball only to set up Hafner for the fastball still, however, his admittance of command issues of his breaking stuff in his recent pen session only seems to reaffirm the notion that Hendriks shook off a curve. If 2012 has any bearings on it, Hendriks has demonstrated that he shies away from his breaking stuff when he is ahead of the hitters. Look at his pitch breakdown from BrooksBaseball.com from last year: Download attachment: Hendriks.PNG What Hendriks needs is more confidence in his secondary pitches. He pitches backwards by throwing his non-fastballs out-front but he fails in the sense that he does not have a put-away pitch. Spotting his fastball will only get him so far. And, to this point in his career, that has meant success at Triple-A. With Samuel Deduno making a strong case for one of the two positions open in the rotation, the race is tightening between Hendriks and Devries. Click here to view the article

This past week the Twins made several notable moves that affected their payroll – signing free agent reliever Joel Zumaya and coming to terms with several arbitration-eligible players including Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano. The Twins signed Zumaya to an incentive-laden deal that can be as little of a commitment as $400,000 if he fails to break camp with the team all the way up to $1.75 million if he reaches certain performance bonuses. Shortly thereafter, the team agreed to deal with Perkins ($1.55 million) and Liriano ($5.5 million) while continuing to work on an agreement with their last arb-eligible player, second baseman Alexi Casilla. Casilla’s camp submitted a figure of $1.75 million while the Twins countered with a deal offered $1.065. Considering this organization does not enter arbitration with players regularly, it is assumed that the team and Casilla will eventually split the difference on a one-year contract. Given those recent transactions, here is the current 2012 projected payroll based on the existing knowledge found at Cot’s Contracts and the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen’s prior assumptions: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: Twins Payroll Estimate_1.23.12.jpg As of right now, the Twins are anticipated to spend around $98.5 million on the 2012 team. That is significantly under the $115 million that the 2011 team was paid out, however, given the ownership’s desire to lower than figure, the drop-off should not be surprising. (You can certainly argue the merits of the decrease but you cannot say it was unexpected.) A few months after La Velle Neal’s interview with Jim Pohlad, the team fired general manager Bill Smith and replaced him with Terry Ryan. During Ryan’s reintroduction press conference in November, he gave a few more details regarding the payroll number: At the $98.5 million mark, the payroll is right in that sweet spot of where Ryan was describing. Because of that, it isn’t necessarily a given that the team will seek to spend that $1.5 million remaining from the assumed $100 million payroll. If Ryan opts to close up shop right now and move forward with the present lot, no one could blame him. Then again, that wouldn’t be in the best interest of the on-field product, especially considering the state of the bullpen. Even though Zumaya could be a very capable arm, based on his injury history, there is no guarantee he can sustain the duration of the season (in fact, I would easily bet against him making the maximum of his contract). Outside of Zumaya, the Twins have a bevy of intriguing yet unproven right-handed arms. The most prudent thing would be to use that money towards signing someone like Todd Coffey or Dan Wheeler. As I outlined recently, Coffey could be a valuable but inexpensive addition to the bullpen to stave off right-handed foes. Making just $1.35 million with the Nationals last year, Coffey figures to have his potential earnings diluted in the current plethora of relievers on the market and could easily be signed for $1.5 million or less. Meanwhile Wheeler, who is even more of a threat against right-handed hitters than Coffey, made a pretty penny in Boston a year ago ($3 million) but a shoulder injury at the end of the season combined with the deep market could also push him into that $1.5 million range as well. Either option would be a solid addition to deepen a fairly shallow bullpen. For the Twins, who are down to their final few shillings, choosing to spend that $1.5 million to land a bargain bin-priced reliever would undoubtedly strengthen the pitching staff. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Worley.jpg Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire confirmed a floating rumor this afternoon that Vance Worley will be indeed be the Twins’ Opening Day starter. The 25-year-old right-hander, who had tossed five innings of seven hit, two run ball with five strikeouts this afternoon, has had an up-and-down spring, amassing a 7.36 ERA coming off a season in which he had minor clean-up in his pitching elbow.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Still, with Mike Pelfrey still inconsistent due to his Tommy John recovery, Worley appears to be the best option to take on Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers on Monday. While Worley may not be of Verlanderian caliber, the announcement brings to an end this sad graphic which was displayed on the Twins’ website: Download attachment: TwinsGraphic.jpg Worley’s methods include an array of pitches, none of which missed bats at a high frequency, and his chief method of achieving a striking out is to get hitters looking. A year ago, Worley pitched 133 innings in 23 starts, with a 6-9 record and a 4.20 ERA in addition to a 107-to-47 strikeouts-to-walks ratio before being shut down with elbow tenderness. Following Wednesday’s game, Gardenhire told reporters that he expects the new acquisition to reach the 200-inning plateau in 2013. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: 10-17.jpg Beneath the fold of the October 17 edition of the Star Tribune was a story that may have grabbed larger headlines anywhere outside of this market. On the morning of October 14, an eighteen-month-old little girl by the name of Jessica had horrifically fallen 22 feet into a well in the backyard of a Midland home in West Texas. Improbably, she lasted two days and change without food and water while rescuers dug through bedrock to reach her. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] When she was lifted out of the narrow hole on October 16, she was caked in dirt but retrived without a scratch. It was nothing short of miraculous. On a far less life-threatening level, Minnesota baseball fans had witnessed their own miracle and the citizens reacted with the same jubilation and exuberance. Pitted against a Detroit Tigers’ team which had won more games than anyone in baseball while scoring nearly six runs per game -- a team which had won 8 of 12 and outscored them 83-to-58 -- the Twins had somehow emerged victorious. On October 16, World Series fever had a full-out stranglehold on the Twin Cities. It would be, after all, the first World Series played in Minnesota in 22 years. This Minneapolis-St Paul was completely different from the sleepy town that hosted its first Series in 1965. When the Dodgers came to Minnesota that year, the rivalry between the Twin Cities was still going strong to the point where a disagreement on daylight savings time resulted in an hour difference between the two metropolitan cities divided by a river. The area’s population had exploded in the 1980s and the new inhabitants were elated to be on baseball’s grand stage. Nothing else mattered. The night before, the NBA made a preseason appearance at the Met Center. The Milwaukee Bucks hosted the Seattle SuperSonics in front of a crowd of 5,350 -- a lowly number even by preseason standards. Met Center officials admitted they were anticipating 7,500 to 9,500 but when the World Series forced the University of Minnesota to reschedule their football game from Saturday, October 16 to Friday, October 15 it creating a head-to-head with the exhibition game. But David Shama, the Met Center’s marketing director, told the Star Tribune’s Tom Moton that the real reason for the sparse crowd was the Twins mania that had swept the area since clinching the American League pennant in Detroit. Nicollet Mall was freshened up with 150 new banners inscribed with “How ‘bout Them Twins?” Northwest Airlines reported that the four daily nonstop flights between Minneapolis and St. Louis with 422 seats were sold out for the impending games in St. Louis. Juan Berenguer, Tony Oliva Les Straker and Al Newman took to Prince’s Chanhassen studio to record “The Berenguer Boogie”, an anthem and video created in what seemed to be 15 minutes to capture the flame-thrower’s patented move. Street vendors had flooded the downtown areas of Minneapolis and St. Paul, peddling their fresh World Series wears that people happily snapped up quickly. On the popular culture front, the Kirby Puckett haircut was suddenly (and inexplicably) a thing. The Star Tribune, who had created and distributed the Homer Hanky, announced that they were completed sold out even before to the biggest game of the decade. On the front page, Tom Culligan, the paper’s Vice President of Marketing, informed readers that there were “four factories working around the clock producing hankies” but there would be a limited number of the wildly popular handkerchief available at the Star Tribune’s headquarters that afternoon. Columnist Jim Klobuchar documented the scene. Everyone wanted one. Those who were unable to get one at the Star Tribune headquarters that day were forced to wait weeks for mail order delivery. The main event, Game One, was just a day away. ABC, who covered the World Series in odd-number years, had the privilege of broadcasting the series between two teams from fly-over land. The network would be pulling out all the stops when it comes to coverage by using 12 cameras. This is quaint compared by modern standards. In 2012, Fox employed 38 cameras total including five new slo-mo high speed cameras. But that would be for those who were not fortunate enough to score tickets to the actual game. And there were plenty who did not. Even Twins owner Carl Pohlad was not immuned to the mania gripping the fanbase - his phone wouldn’t stop ringing with ticket requests from long-lost acquaintances he told staff writers Rob Hotskainen and Randy Furst. In preparation for next day’s game, focus shifted towards the two men who would climb the mound. For Minnesota, that would be the left-handed Frank Viola. The 27-year-old Viola had finished the year 17-10 with a solid 2.90 ERA (a career-best 159 ERA+) but was facing a significant off-field ordeal: His younger brother had scheduled his wedding for October 17 and Frank was supposed to be the best man. Naturally, as much as it pained him, Frank was not going to cancel his first World Series visit for his brother’s wedding, writes Steve Aschburner. As for the match-up on the field, it was the cliched power versus speed. The Twins had slugged 196 home runs in the season while the Cardinals finished last with 97. First baseman Kent Hrbek had led the Twins with 34 home runs and could out-mash anybody on the Cards’ roster, save for the injured Jack Clark (35), but would be hard-pressed to beat any of them in a foot race around the bases with a five minute head start. The Cardinals, meanwhile, excelled in the National League thanks to strong on-base presence (.340 OBP - 4th in MLB) then robbing the next base (248 steals). They also had a stalwart pitching who allowed just 4.4 runs per game compared to the Twins’ 5 runs. Doug Grow summarized the clubs. The 1987 World Series would mark the first time baseball would play the game under a roof. The game’s purists lambasted the notion. before the Series, Peter Gammons, then with Sports Illustrated, wrote that “There’s the matter of taking any team seriously that makes its living in the Metrodome. Humpball is the name of the game played there.” Jay Weiner, who would later go on to pen Stadium Boondoggles after his coverage of the Twins’ stadium plea in the late 1990s, defended the Dome’s honor and pointed out that purists hated all changes about the game and the transition to indoor ball was a natural evolution. No one will blame Weiner for his miss on that one. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7815119.jpg When it was announced Minnesota Twins pitcher Scott Diamond went unclaimed through waivers and would not be named the fifth starter, the left-hander doffed his cap to his competition in Kyle Gibson. The decision was a tough one, with the left-hander being out of options, but Gibson’s strong spring showing ultimately won him the job. What solidified his spot in the rotation, in the manager’s mind, was a combination of his stuff and his demeanor. “The big power sinker. Right out of the get-go his ball was at a great angle and it was diving down. He just didn’t look like he was overwhelmed,” said Ron Gardenhire after the final spring training game of the year at Hammond Stadium. “Last year in spring training we saw him yanking pitches, when he came to the big league we saw him misfiring quite a bit. Catcher would be setting up inside and he would yank it all the way across the plate.” Gibson missed his spots often but pitchf/x data does not suggest he was missing out of the strike zone. In fact, Gibson was one of the most demerited pitchers when it came to pitches in the zone actually being called balls. Speaking in general to the blossoming benefits of framing, backstop Kurt Suzuki was questioned how much influence the catcher has over the calls versus the reputation and execution of the pitcher. “I don’t put too much stock in that,” Suzuki said. “Don’t get me wrong, I think that has a lot to do with it but at the same time, what a pitcher does has a lot to do with it. If he’s all over the place, he’s obviously not going to get those borderline calls, no matter how good you make it look. If you are around the plate consistently, you are going to get those calls.” In part, Gibson’s shrunken strike zone last year may have, had to do with his catchers. After all, he spent 40 of his 50 innings paired with Joe Mauer and Mauer, while a very solid receiver at gaining extra strikes at the top of the zone, had a history of not getting the calls at the bottom of the zone -- precisely where Gibson liked to work his sinker. At the same time, he was admittedly erratic with his pitches and failed to establish control. Gibson, who spent ten starts in Minnesota attempting to exploit the edges of the strike zone, said that in the moment he did not notice the scales perhaps being unfairly tipped to the hitter’s advantage. “On borderline pitches whether you’re a pitcher, hitter, catcher, whatever, it’s tough to really tell where that was,” remarked Gibson. “The way umpires can actually call those pitches as well as they do is pretty amazing, honestly.” To the naked eye, it is hard to call those pitches that fall within a fraction of an inch of the invisible strike zone. The cameras in the sky have a different perspective. According to the data, Gibson had just 73% of his in-zone pitches called strikes, well below the 81% average. Gibson believes that, if there was an effect, it likely stemmed from his inability to locate his pitches consistently. “What I was always taught in college was the more you get an umpire calling a strike, the more he’s going to call strikes on the borderline part,” he said. “And the fact of the matter was I was getting behind a lot and when it’s 1-0 and 2-0 and you’ve repeatedly shown that you can’t locate right there on the edge of the plate, you probably are not going to get that call.” That is the area that Gibson would like to focus on the most: working ahead in the count. This spring, his three walks in 16.1 innings suggest he has made strides in that department, but he recognizes that the improvement needs to come north with him. “Hopefully this year, if I am able to pound the zone and go back to those same pitches, then I might get more of those calls. But you've got to get ahead and earn the fact that you can hit that spot and I just wasn’t doing that.” If his spring performance has been any indication, he should be ready. “He’s been real consistent,” said Gardenhire. “Getting pretty close to the glove with a good angle and a hard slider and when he’s doing that, it’s hard for hitters to get on him. If he’s got that power sinker going -- at about 91, 92, 93 miles per hour. And that’s what he’s done this spring, really in control of himself.” Click here to view the article

The Twins recently announced that Target Field would be a smoke-free facility starting in 2012. Apparently, they were not referencing tobacco products but rather Carl Pavano’s fastball. Minnesota’s inning-eating stalwart of the past several seasons entered Opening Day in Baltimore and was not impressing any radar gun enthusiasts by tossing his fastball a touch over 85 miles an hour. On Saturday, Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan reported that there were some organizational staffers who were “alarmed” at this development. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: PavanoVelocity_4.8.12.jpg At Baseball Prospectus, former analyst and current Houston Astros’ staffer Mike Fast found that pitchers’ velocity is a bell curve over the course of the season: “Fastball speed for an average major-league pitcher starts at its lowest point in early April, rises by about 1.0-1.5 mph to a peak in the month of July, and declines gradually thereafter. These trends apply similarly to starting pitchers and relief pitchers.” As you can see from the chart above, like Fast’s research which showed velocity increased throughout the season, Pavano also had a gradual climb in velocity as the season progressed. In 2009 and 2010, he added roughly 2 miles an hour to his fastball. Last year, however, he was only able to dial up his heat 0.2 miles an hour. Meanwhile, this year, he has begun at his lowest starting point in the past four years. At 36 years old and coming off of two straight seasons of throwing over 222 innings -- not to mention a failure to ratchet up his fastball in 2011 like he did in 2009 and 2010 -- this may be an early indication that he could be wearing down indefinitely. To be fair, Pavano, who has never been a hard thrower even in the early stages of his career, has always relied on his fastball’s command and movement over power. Because of its pedestrian nature in comparison to the rest of the league, when he misses his spots over the plate opponents have been able to lacerate his fastball (such as what happened when Nick Markakis launched a two-run home run off of him in the first inning of Friday’s contest). For instance, in 2009, the year in which the Twins traded for him at the waiver deadline, Pavano’s fastball was valued at -23.8 runs below average by Fangraphs.com – the worst rate in baseball among qualified starters. The following year it came in at -7.2, a fair improvement but still near the bottom of the league. Last season his fastball finished at -25.6, second only to A.J. Burnett’s -34. Despite all of that, Pavano has managed to remain a pitcher who has turned in consecutive seasons of 3 wins above replacement since 2009. What allowed him to succeed despite the sheer obliteration of his heater was guile – throwing a decent combination of a slider and changeup that incited plenty of opponents to expand the strike zone and swing at less than favorable pitches. Between 2009 and 2011, he was able to get hitters to swing at 34.4 percent of out-of-zone pitches – the second-highest amount in baseball. In short, opponents were less likely to square up on a ball that is off the plate leading to more outs for Pavano in spite of chucking a lackluster fastball. But here’s another factor that should be considered as his velocity declines: the differential between his fastball and his off-speed pitches is eroding. Along with his command and movement, the secondary pitches provided Pavano with a change of speed that disrupted the opposition’s timing. Baseball researcher Dave Allen discovered that the optimal differential between a fastball and a changeup to be effective is between 5% and 12%. In essence, anything below 5% and anything above 12% gives the hitter a better read on the pitch. For Pavano, in 2009 and 2010, he had an approximate nine mile per hour differential between his fastball and his changeup. This resulted in differentials of 10.2% in ‘09 and 9.4% in ’10. Last season, he posted a differential of 8.8%, still within the sweet spot Allen described but was definitely trending downward as his fastball’s velocity decreased. In just his one start, he held a differential of 4.5% slightly below the threshold for effectiveness. In theory, if Pavano continues to throw his fastball and changeup in this range, he will lose the ability to fool hitters with the off-speed stuff. Yes, it is just one outing, and his first of the year at that, but there are some signs which suggest Pavano may be in line for a hard season if he is unable to add some MPHs to his fastball. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: The Freak.jpg On Thursday, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs.com tweeted out a very depressing but all too telling statistic about the Minnesota Twins’ rotation: The bullpen staff has 17 more strikeouts than the starting rotation. Sure, it is bleak but it is not as historically awful as it sounds: The current 12.3% strikeout rate by the Twins’ staff ranks 203rd among MLB starting rotations dating back to 1961. The issue, however, is that the Twins are trending in the wrong direction. Since 2008 [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]he game has seen a proliferation of K’s like no other era. In fact, since 2008, the strikeout rate in MLB has been set and broken each season. Meanwhile, this season’s 18.7% league-wide strikeout rate has been the best ever. As bats have become more porous or the strike zone has expanded or the ball has become easier to spin, the Twins have failed to collect any pitchers who can capitalize on this growing whiff movement. At the player development level, the organization is slowly bringing along hurlers who have strikeout capabilities but the cavalry is still several years away. While developing pitchers is ultimately the best method for long-term success, it is clear in order to improve soon the Twins will have to acquire an arm either by trade or the free agent market. As one Twins front office member described to me, the organization has had interest in plenty of free agent starting pitchers but have been eschewed by the players and their agents for competitive reasons. For example, while his season wound up plenty disappointing, the veteran Dan Haren’s interest was to play for a presumed contender in the Washington Nationals. So after what will be a third 90-loss season, the Twins may yet again fall short of being able to lure a pitcher with a similar track record as a Dan Haren. Of course, money can change minds and the Twins may be at the point of needing to overpay for talent – at least to appease the dwindling ticket-buying consumers. Here are four strikeout pitchers who should be on the team’s radar: Tim Lincecum: A two-time Cy Young winner as recently as 2009, the now 29-year-old Lincecum has fallen from elite status as his velocity has dipped and his walk rate swelled. Hitters were able to tee up on both his fastball and change-up in 2012 which dramatically increased his home run rate. What’s interesting about the home run distribution lately is that the vast majority are pulled. Prior to the velocity decrease in 2012, the ones he allowed were to the middle of the park – hitters were not able to yank his offerings. Now, they have turned on the fastball/change as the velo discrepancies shrank significantly. Why would the Twins want him? Well, he still misses bats at a very high rate. As it stands right now, the Twins’ bullpen has more strikeouts than the starting rotation. Strikeouts are fascist but this rotation is desperate for a little of that action. Of the soon-to-be free agent starters, Lincecum’s 23.8% strikeout rate over the last three years leads the group. That would be a pretty sexy addition. The downside is he walks a ton too and that is the baggage the organization has shied away from. What’s more, Target Field is much more home run friendly than Lincecum’s former home at AT&T Park in San Francisco so in addition to seeing lineups with DH's upon switching from the NL to the AL, he could also be stepping into an environment which will inflate his home run rate. Ervin Santana: The word is Santana actually likes pitching in Kansas City, which means he may opt to stick around America’s bread basket. That puts the Twins at a disadvantage considering the Royals are actually competitive and the Twins are still in a rebuild. That said, it is possible that the Royals decide to not bring him back and, considering his volatility in recent years, he may be a less desired product than some of the other free agents on the market. Whatever he did, he started to throw more strikes and pepper the zone regularly while in a Royals uniform. This translated into fewer walks. He kept the ball down better which resulted in fewer home runs as well, which was a huge change from the previous season. Last year he allowed 39 home runs but has reduced that to 22 so far this year. One interesting note: After allowing 16 home runs up the middle, he has allowed just 7 that direction this year. (Caveat: It is possible that the 39 home runs allowed in 2012 were simply fluky when you consider how many left the park in the furthest reaches of the field.) Over the past three years, Santana’s held the second-lowest batting average on balls in play (.240) among free agents. This usually means hitters have a tough time squaring up on a pitcher – which is true for Santana – however he allowed 39 home runs a year ago meaning that a vast majority of balls that would have counted towards that BABIP left the field in a painful way. Phil Hughes: Baseball America’s fourth overall prospect in 2007. As a major leaguer, Phil Hughes’ career has been inconsistent in New York. Part of that may have to do with facing the beasts of the AL East while another half of that is performing in Yankee Stadium with the favorable hitting conditions. How badly has Yankee Stadium victimized him? Since 2000, Hughes’ home run-to-fly ball ratio of 13.1% has been the 14th highest in baseball among those with 300 innings. Meanwhile, away from Yankee Stadium, Hughes has had a 7% home run-to-fly ball ratio, the second-lowest among starting pitchers (only Clayton Kershaw is better). Clearly, moving him away from the Bronx and say moving into a home run suppressing venue like Target Field would be in his best interest. In terms of strikeouts, he will not put up gaudy totals. In fact, his rates are surprisingly average in that department. His slider is his only swing-and-miss pitch and that carries just a 12.6% swinging strike rate (below average for a slider). Johan Santana: Yes, the former Twin has had a rash of dehabilitating injuries in New York and the most recent one offers no guarantee that he will be ready to shoulder an entire season but, when healthy, he’s been a dominating force. He has expressed interest in pitching again in 2013 and will need just a one-year, make good Mike Pelfrey-type of deal. How sweet would it be to see Santana out on the Target Field mound again? (Answer: Very.) Beyond just nostalgia, there is a possibility that Santana may actually pitch well too. In 2012, his last healthy season, Santana whiffed 22.3% of batters faced. The velocity certainly isn’t what it used to be, as he now has a DeLorean fastball (88 miles per hour) but that cotton ball of a change-up has still made batters look foolish as hell. The flipside is that both age (34) and numerous surgeries could mean that Santana never recovers and winds up a Rich Harden or Joel Zumaya for the Twins. It would definitely be a low risk but high reward move. Plus I want to rock the “Santana” shirsey one last time. Man oh man. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Morneau.jpg On a gorgeous Minnesota July afternoon, Jack Goin, the Twins’ manager of major league administration and baseball research, sits in the Target Field broadcast booth high above the playing field. Below, the Twins are taking batting practice and a variation of infield warm-ups that happens behind protective screens at every base. There is controlled chaos with batted balls going every direction. The team is preparing for that evening’s game. Goin, meanwhile, is a part of the Twins’ front office team that has been preparing for the upcoming trade deadline.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Since the June draft, the organization’s attention has shifted toward the game’s big swap meet on the last day of July. The internal process for preparing for the trade deadline starts with an abundance of prospect research and scouting reports. Goin reviews each organization’s top prospects, adding others who may be intriguing statistically, and connects with the team’s director of pro scouting, Vern Followell, to compare notes. “We start looking at if we have reports on prospects, real prospects, which everyone has ranked. We look at the top 20, top 30, whatever, specifically of those teams that are in the buying mode,” Goin says. “Now whether that is off those lists or I’ve gone through and tried to cross-check it myself and say here are guys we should have interest in regardless of what our scouting reports say. Then we talk about it.” This is when Goin’s statistical favorites are vetted through the lens of the scout. Followell and his team’s scouting reports may help illuminate why prospects are having an abundance of unexpected success. They may be hitters seeing a high percentage of fastballs in bandbox minor league parks or pitchers who are old for that particular level and are thriving by spinning off curveballs in the dirt; essentially, players who are succeeding through methods that may become ineffective as they progress up the minor league system. Occasionally, a potentially useful prospect may fly under the radar and require further scouting. It could be due to Goin’s research or a scout’s recommendation that a player was identified, but the Twins want to be as thorough and complete with their information as possible if a team unexpectedly calls to discuss a deal. “We try to make sure we haven’t missed anybody to limit the emergency visits as you get close [to the deadline]. It’s kind of like the draft; you are flying across the country at the last minute.” If a team has an information advantage going into the trade deadline, it means they can swap a David Hollins for a David Ortiz or turn a Brian Buchanan into a Jason Bartlett. Of course, those types of trades seem like ages ago for the ballclub. When was the last time the Twins could consider themselves the indisputable victor? Since then, teams have beefed up their analytics departments as well as their scouting teams. On their website, the Twins have 14 people listed under Baseball Operations. By comparison, the Pittsburgh Pirates, baseball’s newest surging darling, have 37 Baseball Operations employees, involving both scouts and analysts. Even small-market teams like the Pirates are going on the offensive when it comes to identifying as well as retaining talent. Goin agrees that the constructs of the trade deadline have changed. “There’s a difference in what the trade deadline is now versus what the trade deadline used to be,” he added. “I think it used to be more of a negotiation where you say we’re not giving up this guy and you get a list of A, B and C and you can take one guy from A and one guy from B and two guys from C, or whatever the combination.” “Because there is so much prep work – between analysis and scouting – teams really funnel down who they want. They say if you want this guy, we need this guy, this guy and this guy. Or they have a formula of we need a guy who's close in Triple-A, maybe a lesser ceiling, we need a certain position and then we want another guy that is low but has a chance to be the guy.” The Cubs’ recent Matt Garza trade demonstrates this mentality. With the Rangers in need of additional pitching and the Cubs looking to rebuild, they landed Mike Olt, a third base prospect with some major league experience, Justin Grimm, a starting pitcher with 22 major league games under his belt and then a lower level pitcher, C.J. Edwards, who has plenty of upside. The Cubs will also be entitled to a player-to- be-named-later as well. One starter with an expiring contract landed Chicago up to four useful chips. How do trade talks start? In the movie Moneyball, Brad Pitt ate three fistfuls of popcorn, made five calls and dealt two players – all in the span of ten minutes. That is the Hollywood version of what is often a lengthy process. Some teams will first try to determine the lay of the land early in the month of July. Calls will be made by various members of the front office to former colleagues or friends in another organization, putting out feelers to gauge interest. What do they need? Are they looking to shop anyone? Maybe a follow-up call is made. This is done by buyers and sellers alike but not the Twins, says Goin. That is not how they operate. For the Twins, trade talks can start in the stands at a game with an innocuous conversation between scouts. “You’ll get one of our scouts calling in and he’ll say I was talking to so-and-so at the park the other day and they've got interest in this guy or need a backup catcher and we need a utility infielder. Then Terry [Ryan] would just respond by saying tell them to call us.” Some general managers use the media as a means of letting other teams know that they are buyers or sellers. Ryan recently used the local scribes to let people know the team would listen to offers on anyone, thereby letting other GMs know the Twins are open for business. Others use media to gain information, particularly from MLBTradeRumors.com. “Everybody monitors that stuff,” acknowledges Goin. “There are GMs that see something and they call right away and they admit, hey, I saw on MLB Trade Rumors that you guys are shopping Liriano.” The trade market changes on the fly. One day a GM may be checking to see if his office phone is actually plugged in, to having it ring incessantly. Houston’s GM Jeff Luhnow said that prior to the Garza trade there was little discussion for the Astros’ right-handed starter Bud Norris. Now, with Garza off the board, Luhnow expects to have more frequent conversations regarding his player. As the trade deadline plays out, teams that are buying may become more desperate. At the same time, selling teams may wait too long and miss out on the buyer's market. Timing is everything. Part of that timing is deciding whether the team is a buyer or seller. There is no magic date in the schedule by which teams make that decision. The Twins do not run projections at the All-Star break to calculate what the remainder of the season is going to look like. The standings tell them everything they need to know. A double-digit deficit can be a gentle reminder that the season is not going as desired and the team will find itself in the sellers camp. “Depending on where you are, you try to hang on. Sometimes you may hang on too long,” says Goin. “We’re all competitive and it is hard to get that out of your system. We still want to compete, we want to win. There are a lot of things that go into making a trade. Then there are times that it is obvious that you are out of it.” And this is one of those times. Having seen this season play out and now going on three losing years, the Twins would be fooling themselves if they believe they should be anything but sellers. Minnesota’s most valuable trade commodity is Glen Perkins. In additional to being an elite reliever, he has an extremely team-friendly contract. Because of baseball’s enlightenment that says stats like the save are overvalued, would a closer like Perkins still be able to garner a decent return? “There are teams that have gone beyond that, sure” Goin admits. “But I think there are still teams that are going to go out and try to make a trade for a Perkins or [Jonathon] Papelbon or whoever they think they need to get to shore up the back of the bullpen. Some teams are not going to worry about that as much but there still are teams that will say this guy is having a good year, he’s driven in 85 runs through July and we need to get a bat. It may be a function of him being a good hitter and the RBIs are secondary.” With just a week remaining until the trade deadline, the Twins have conducted their due diligence. Goin and company have identified and researched hundreds of potential prospects across the league. The question remains if any teams will be interested enough in any of the currently available players. That, Goin says, may be one of the biggest misconception about the trade deadline. “With media the way it is, internet, Twitter, everything, it gets so much more hype than what actually goes on. You might sit there and no one is calling you back. You may say we’d love to trade. We've got guys or we’d like to trade for your guy and you do not get a call back. They literally do not call back. It’s strange. There is a lot of work that actually goes on to prepare for nothingness.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Parmelee.jpg The Twins made a move today sending starter Cole DeVries down to Rochester and recalling the white-hot hitting Chris Parmelee back to the club. After struggling hardcore at the beginning of the year with the Twins, Parmelee was demoted to AAA and has rediscovered his swing. Interestingly, according to FirstInning.com's data, Parmelee's line drive rate was down to 13% but his zone acumen was significantly better as he walked in 12 of his 58 plate appearances while only coaxing six free passes in 92 plate appearances with the Twins. Overall, the left-handed hitting Parmelee has posted a .375/.500/.708 batting line with four home runs and 12 runs batted in. While less than 60 plate appearances is not a strong sampling - it's the same size which fooled people during spring training - he has certainly made quite the impression in Rochester. Please leave your comments in the forum. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Mauer_Joe_orig.jpg Joe Mauer carries a lot of pressure on his knees, both physically and metaphorically speaking. Some of that is pressure a few of us can relate to, like being a newly married man with a family on the way (twins, no less). Most of it, however, we can’t. Like checking your bank account and seeing a figure which includes multiple commas or getting buzzed by a Chris Sale fastball followed by a slider that seems to bend through space and time. And the scrutiny that follows when you don’t deliver 30-plus home runs a season. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] ~~~ This is a story from a free ebook that TwinsDaily is publishing on Opening Day that previews the Minnesota Twins 2013 season. To get your free copy, just make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter or Like our Facebook page. ~~~ As the anchor of the lineup, Mauer’s knees carry the weight of the local baseball world. Physically, catching can definitely take a toll on the body, especially the knees, and that can certainly affect a player’s output at the plate. After the 2011 season, then-hitting coach Joe Vavra said in a radio interview that he noticed Mauer had troubles “getting off of his backside and favored his legs a bit” during his swing. To improve, Mauer focused heavily on strengthening his knee after that season and entered the 2012 season better prepared for the rigors of the position, and the numbers speak for themselves. The added offseason attention helped overall but he also demonstrated that he could continue to hit even while catching on a regular basis – a feat some felt was not possible as they plotted a new position for Minnesota’s highest paid athlete. In 2012 his offensive production when adorning the tools of ignorance far exceeded that when he wasn’t squatting in 2012. In 323 plate appearances last year while catching, he put up a triple-slash line of .365/.460/.493 with six of his home runs. The results were significant improved from over his 2011 season in which he hit .239/.328/.324 in the aftermath of his knee surgery. That said the knees may have been a factor behind his defensive decline in ’12. His caught stealing rate plummeted to a career low and the coaching staff attributed this to a mechanical change. “I don’t know if he’s throwing different but I think he’s had some injuries that have changed some of his mechanics,” manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters in camp. “His arm is still there, he’s still got a cannon. I think the tendencies are when you are not able to work on things like that a lot you get a little long with your actions.” One of the biggest questions is how many innings will Mauer play as a catcher. While Mauer has offensive acumen that would play anywhere on the field, having his bat at the catcher’s position greatly enhances his value to the team, allow someone with more traditional power to assume the first base or designated hitter role. Last year, in terms of innings played at the position, he ranked 26th among all backstops. One of the game’s ironmen, the Cardinals’ Yadier Molina, caught multiple games in a row for long stretches of time, maxing out at 12 in September. By comparison, Mauer’s longest streak was three games in 2012. With the addition of Ryan Doumit, it is conceivable that the days of Mauer hooking up the chest protector for more than 900 innings are behind him, but Gardenhire says the amount that Mauer spends behind the plate in 2013 is purely up to his star. With more time to heal and his admitted passion to catch, he could be more inclined to do so this year. The defensive abilities may simply erode with age but Mauer’s hitting will never come under question. If you are expecting a sudden home run outburst, that is probably never going to come to fruition. Because of his hitting style and ballpark that is not conducive to it, his home run totals will probably fall into the 10-to-15 range annually. Still, the on-base percentage and high average should continue so long as he is able to draw a breath. ~~~ You'll get to kick of Opening Day with your free @TwinsDaily Minnesota Twins 2013 Season Preview. Just add us to your Twitter feed by following us, or tell us you like us (we're pathetic like that). We'll publish a link to the free ebook on Opening Day on both sites. http://apps.startrib...ry_id=200551031 Click here to view the article

On Thursday, Ron Gardenhire announced his opening day lineup. Giving it the once over, you will notice that the lineup is filled with “professional” hitters, a stark contrast to the motley crew that the manager was forced to field at the end of last year. Headlining names like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span have returned. It is deep enough that Chris Parmelee, who hit in the heart of the order in September, is batting eighth. With the offseason additions of Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll, there is optimism that this offense will not finish at the bottom of the league in runs scored. Download attachment: baker.jpg Of course, while the offense is providing some warm fuzzies, it’s the pitching staff that is the real concern. And it’s already off to an ominous start.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Scott Baker, in efforts to rehab an arm issue he experienced this spring, made a start for the Ft Myers Miracle yesterday. It did not go well. Just 11 pitches into the outing, he was pulled, stating he was unable to get loose. The News-Press’s David Dorsey tweeted that Miracle manager Jake Mauer said “the radar guns were 80 to 84 or whatever the heck it was. He wasn’t comfortable at all.” There is no clarity as to what is actually wrong with Baker, either. Earlier in the day, general manager Terry Ryan was on KFAN with Dan Barreiro and said, of Baker, “the only concern I have is that he’s not injured. There’s nothing wrong; we’ve done all the test and so forth.” Baker’s situation is starting to sound somewhat similar to Glen Perkins’ plight in 2010. That season, Perkins complained about shoulder pain which sidelined him for an extended period of time and drew the ire of Twins officials who were “privately questioning his pain tolerance and willingness to compete.” As we know, Perkins rebounded swimmingly, assuming the set-up man’s position in the bullpen and earning himself a three-year deal after a terrific 2011 season. Baker, meanwhile, has now had multiple seasons now end with arm issues and this one, much like Perkins in 2010, does not have a clear diagnosis. Is he now receiving the Perkins treatment from the team’s inner circle? In August of last year, Baker headed for the disabled list, saying that he noticed a “lack of velocity and less sharpness in his breaking pitches.” Back then he was still hitting the upper-80s despite the discomfort. This spring, the radar gun has said he has been at 86 miles per hour and below. As someone who lives up in the zone and allows a high percentage of fly balls, the drop in velocity would be fuel to the fire. It’s frustrating, as Ryan told Barreiro, because despite throwing just over 130 innings last year, Baker was undoubtedly the rotation’s lone bright spot through the first half of the season. He was a breath of fresh air as a strikeout pitcher (whiffing 22.5% of batters faced) in a sea of contact artists (Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn) and zone avoiders (Francisco Liriano). Now it appears there is no timeline in which Baker will recover in the near future. His absence will also further highlight the Twins lack of depth in the system when it comes to the starting rotation. Liam Hendriks, who pitched decently in September, will assume his spot however, if any other injuries crop up, there is little left in the farm system to replace them. There are no Matt Garzas, Kevin Sloweys or Francisco Lirianos waiting in the wings. And what of the bullpen? A year ago, the reinforcements blew 20 save opportunities and were responsible for 28 losses (the most in the American League) while allowing 4.96 runs per game (the second most in the AL). Have the Twins improved themselves in this area? Matt Capps’ spring - following up a tumultuous 2011 season - has not reassured fans much that he’s turned things around. Likewise, the one pitcher who may have added a dominating force to last year’s group, Joel Zumaya, lasted 13 spring pitches. The Twins have also lost Joe Nathan and have not replaced him with a similar right-handed reliever. This doesn’t inspire much confidence, does it? Well, you are not alone in that sentiment. Ryan was also equally as uncertain by the unit he put together. “The biggest question is the bullpen,” said Ryan Thursday afternoon over the airwaves. “The bullpen has a bunch of question marks…I’m worried about the bullpen just like you are.” At the very least, the honesty is refreshing. It’s not like the front office is trying to feed us a spoon full of sugar to help the medicine go do. The reality is this pitching staff may very well leave a bitter taste. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hicks.jpg Leading baseball in strikeouts probably is not what Aaron Hicks had in mind when he daydreamed about his first week in the major leagues. He probably has visions of scorching liners into the right-center gap or sending a shot into the overhang in right field. He pictured himself[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] dancing off of first and swindling second with blaze of dust behind him. Instead, he has made so little contact at the plate that his bat is going through separation anxiety. How has it started this poorly for Hicks and how can he turn it around? The first key to improvement is avoiding falling behind in the count so frequently. Perhaps pitchers in the Eastern League would tip-toe around the strike zone but major league pitchers have come right at Hicks. With a reputation for being borderline overly patient, opponents have poured in first-pitch strikes and put the center fielder behind in the count 76% of his plate appearance thus far in his young career. By comparison, the rest of the league’s hitter’s have been ahead in the count more often than not, as pitchers have gained a first-pitch strike edge just 48% of the time on average. Overall, Hicks has not given opponents much reason to avoid pumping strikes, either. While he has swung 11 times on the initial pitch of his at-bats, he’s put the ball in play just twice (one of his two hits, no less). This may evoke comparisons to Joe Mauer’s laissez-faire attitude towards first pitches but even this season in which the catcher has had an unusually high strikeout rate, pitchers have fallen behind him too (45% first-pitch strike rate). While he does not swing often, Mauer does have a .422 career average when swinging on the first pitch, providing pitchers consideration for not living inside the zone. Hicks, however, has built no such reputation. The second key for Hicks to rebound is improving his pitch recognition – specifically the breaking balls. Once he falls behind in the count, teams have twisted and turned the ball at him. In counts when behind (0-1, 0-2 and 1-2), Hicks has seen 17 fastballs compared to 26 non-fastballs (curves, sliders and change-ups). According to Pitchf/x data, Hicks has seen 46 non-fastballs from right-handed pitchers. He’s offered at 18 of those pitches. Of those 18 swings, he’s made contact just seven times. His early season lack of contact is one reason – besides falling behind in the count – which he has struck out in 16 of his 37 trips to the plate. In his second inning at-bat against Kansas City’s Wade Davis on Wednesday night, the pitch sequencing used has become a common theme for Hicks – dominating the strike zone airspace early in the count and then dropping the hammer with two-strikes. First pitch: Fastball, strike looking. Second pitch: Fastball, strike looking. Third pitch: Cutter, ball. Fourth pitch: Fastball, foul. Fifth pitch: Curve, swinging strike. Strike three. Goodnight Gracie. Take a look at the concluding pitch: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1365745119_HicksvDavis.gif Now this pitch had very little chance of being put into play but what you see in these clips is what Hicks has been doing all season on breaking and off-speed pitches. His front side opens up and then his back side drops, effectively eliminating any chance of making decent contact. All of this happens because he over-commits to the pitch. The way he swings at these grossly unhittable pitches, it is clear that he is having troubles deciphering breaking balls from fastballs. On a basic level, hitters know that breaking balls and other various swing-and-miss type pitches are coming once a pitcher gets ahead in the count. The trick is recognizing the spin. And that part simply comes with comfort and repetition. This is not an uncommon struggle for younger ballplayers. In a recent interview, Mets hitting coach Dave Hudgens addressed outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis’s similar curve ball problem and his advice is very applicable to Hicks as well: “The key is laying off those pitches you should be lay off, and that comes down to pitch recognition. When you start struggling a little bit, guys start chasing hits, and chasing results. Whenever you start doing that, you start a little bit earlier. … I try to teach the guys, if you see spin down — knee high or thigh high — if it’s spinning, you have to discipline yourself. But when you’re hunting hits, it’s very difficult to do. That’s how it snow balled with Nieuwenhuis a little bit. He couldn’t calm himself down and he wanted to hit so bad, he was committing himself early and not recognizing those pitches. My suggestion to [the hitters] is early in the count, we’re tracking pitches. Right now, we’re going down and watching our pitchers on the side and watching that spin. Then when the games begin, hunt fastballs. [He] can hit breaking balls, but it has to be a breaking ball that’s up.” It is early in the year and management knows that he has plenty of time to turn things around. Still, if this continues for a prolonged period of time, Hicks may have to recalibrate in Rochester. http://apps.startrib...ry_id=202645181 Click here to view the article

Download attachment: minnesota-twins-catcher-joe-mauer.jpg One of the more notable batted ball tendencies out of Joe Mauer’s 2012 season is that for the first time in his career, he actually pulled the ball more often than he went the other way. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] This happened very quietly, perhaps because he still managed to spray the entire field with hits and, admittedly, it was not as if he was launching majestic shots onto the plaza with this new found tendency to make anyone take notice. Rather, the Twins backstop/first baseman/designated hitter drove the ball into the ground at the same alarming rate he had for the majority of his career. Only this time, they found real estate at a higher clip than his norm. With the league’s second-highest ground ball rate when pulling – an unsightly 85.1% ground ball rate – it is hard to believe that so many of those scooted past first and second basemen in 2012. Nevertheless, when he did yank the pitch, he had a ball in play average of .285 – his highest success rate aside from his ’07 mark of .295 produced thanks, in part, to the ground ball-accelerating carpeting of the Metrodome. While this could be a statistical anomaly or simply batted ball luck, digging deeper, it appears that there may be some intelligent design behind this method. The first thing to consider is that Mauer’s pull tendencies do not reflect any changes made in response to changes in the oppositions’ approach, on the contrary, they kept the ball down-and-away at a high frequency. However, when they did go down-and-in or on his belt off of the plate, Mauer opened up more readily on those pitches. Here, his batting average on balls in play chart in 2012, provided by BaseballProspectus.com, shows how well he was at handling pitches down and in: https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/MLcASzn-hC8H5BXWnvLh1-M0fKeBzq9vflPdtkSmWiflLiTax8WTN3oIcf9TW6uOgJLoqQeriiIoetP53XXuNaX21MZ6QxWKKYo0P4lFuT7S-25OW7Q Particularly interesting is Mauer’s aggressive tendencies with pitches that were in off of the plate. Although he does inside-out plenty of pitches on the inner half, the further they are off the plate, the more likely it is that a hitter must open up and attack the pitch out in front. This translates into a higher percentage of hits to the right-side of the field for left-handed hitters. Now, situationally, next to the Yankees’ Robinson Cano (166) Mauer was at the plate for the most appearances in double-play situations. Of his 641 times at bat, 148 of those were with a runner on first with less than two outs. For those who recall booing him lustily this year, you probably remember that Mauer bounced into 23 double-plays -- an unfortunate byproduct of having ground ball tendencies when pulling. The other side of that coin is that in terms of defensive positioning, this gives the left-handed Mauer a bigger infield hole on that right side and a decisive advantage. In practice, when a left-handed hitter is up, the shortstop will cover second base on a stolen base attempt and allow the second baseman to cheat towards first base while staying the vicinity of the base in the event of a double play ball. In Mauer’s case, his career-long tendency of hitting the ball back up-the-middle has enticed defensive alignments to squeeze him up the middle rather than have the second baseman shade towards his left. Below is an example of this configuration that Mauer faced often. In this instance, the Phillies were up by three and the Twins had runners on the corners with no outs. With the lead, Philadelphia chose to play the middle infield at double play depth, bringing the second baseman in and towards the bag. The first baseman held the runner. This created ample room for a well hit grounder to skip through the right side. And, as such, the Phillies’ left-handed reliever, Antonio Bastardo delivered a pitch on the inner half of the plate and Mauer re-directed it to that vacant space. Download attachment: Mauer_Right3.jpg Even taking it a step further and simply having a runner on first is very advantageous for Mauer, regardless if the double play is in order. Download attachment: Mauer_Right2.jpg In similar example of Mauer profiting from having a runner on first, in this game against the Indians, the Twins were leading by four in the fourth. Once again, the runners were on the corners. Not wanting to put another runner in scoring position, the Indians held Revere at the bag. Gambling on Mauer’s tendency to use the middle of the field, Indians’ second baseman Jason Kipnis was playing back (which would help cover more ground) but squeezing towards short. Comparatively, when teams do not have to defend against base runner, they were able to play Mauer straight-up in the infield (perhaps cheating their middle infielders towards the center of the diamond). In this case, the Brewers’ second baseman Rickie Weeks is able to play back and first baseman Corey Hart is able to do the same, increasing the defensive coverage and reducing the BABIP odds on grounders to the right side of the field. Download attachment: Mauer_Middle2.jpg Without a runners on base, Mauer’s average on balls in play has been lower over his career and is 34 points lower than when he has at least a runner on first with less than two outs. This past year his ball in play average was 83 points lower (.333) with no one on versus with a runner on first, less than two outs situation (.416). Theoretically, some of that has to do with his success at directional hitting when given sizable targets in which to aim. Based on his altered batted ball tendencies and the results, it is not far fetched to say that Joe Mauer is using his unequaled bat control to garner a few more hits in those circumstances. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: CleteThomas.jpg What Clete Thomas experienced last year at the major league level was the opposition's complete ownership of the airspace in and around the strike zone. He was, as the internet kids say, pwned. In 29 plate appearances in 2012, he struck out 16 times and did not draw a walk. What the data tells us, but does not need to, is that in this small sampling Thomas was a complete free-swinger. Not only that, he was chasing after anything that moved in the general vicinity of the stadium. This resulted in a quick and much needed demotion to Rochester. The whiffing did not stop while playing in The Flower City (Author’s note: it’s a thing, look it up) either. He was thrown a chair a whopping 109 times in 426 plate appearances. After parting ways briefly in November, the Twins re-enlisted Thomas in December for organizational outfield depth. He was told to tone down his swing and improve his contact. The idea of retooling a player's swing or pitching mechanics fascinates me – particularly for guys on the fringe. You know that thing you have complete muscle memory for and are comfortable with? Change it. If it doesn't work? Oh well, you may be out of baseball. Pat on the butt and best of luck. Plenty of struggling players are asked to rework this or tinker with that and the vast majority of them seem to stay at or near the level of production they had before the overhaul. That said, there are a few notable players who have turned their careers around by changing things up, like Roy Halladay or Jose Bautista. But players like these are the exceptions, not the rule. Locally, Twins hitter Trevor Plouffe made improvements to his swing and that turned into one of the most potent 30-day power binges this state has ever seen. Although the third baseman has had trouble at third and staying healthy, he has shown an ability to drive the ball better since his re-education. On the other hand, players like Delmon Young and Luke Hughes also made some adjustments that helped fuel brief hot stretches but never really made much long term progress. On the recent FSN broadcasts, Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven lauded Thomas’s work to improve his contact rates; this effort helped him produce a fantastic start with Rochester this year. True, Thomas’ strikeout rate stayed the same but it was not due to wild swinging. The edict to change not only incited alterations in Thomas’ mental approach (i.e. plate discipline, pitch selection) but also in his mechanics to ensure a greater rate of contact. He improved his walk rate from 6% to 12% and with that came an increase in strikeouts looking. When he put the bat on the ball, it packed some punch. He raised his slugging percentage from .405 to .576 thanks to nine home runs in 36 games, after hitting 12 in 109 last year. Thomas’s changes started with the set. In 2012 (right) he stood more upright, holding his hands higher and keeping his front foot opened. Comparatively, this year, Thomas has brought the front leg inward, lowered his hand level and has a more compacted stance. Download attachment: Clete.jpg The side-by-side differences are evident but how did they affect his swing? http://i.imgur.com/MU0bepq.gif Thomas has had a long, looping swing that generated some power but far more empty swings – as evidence by his 23% strikeout rate in the minors and a 25% rate in the majors. With an opened and upright stance, Thomas exhibited a sizable load with his hands prior to bringing the bat through the zone. During his swing, his head would change planes, likely causing some hand-eye issues and resulting in the hefty in-zone swinging strike rates. Though many hitters have open-stances like pre-2013 Thomas had, those players typically have a toe-tap or other timing mechanism (not unlike former Twin Jason Kubel) to keep their weight back and evenly distributed. In Thomas’ case, the front side is all drifting away from the plate leaving him susceptible to pitches away. http://i.imgur.com/Wrl1O56.gif?1 The most noticeable change in how muted his hand-load is this: instead of drawing his hands as far back as he did in 2012, he has a smaller loading point which quickens his hands and bat through the zone. With bat speed being one key to power, this alteration is part of the reason for the increase in power. Second, with the compacted stance, his head does not change planes as much which leads to better vision. If a hitter’s eye level is changed during the swing he will have additional difficulty squaring up on the ball. Last, with the more closed stance, his weight stays centered at the middle of the hitter's field rather than pulling open, giving him better plate coverage. Dating back to his tenure with the Detroit Tigers and their minor league organization, Thomas always had high levels of whiffability but also displayed enough power and speed to continue being considered a fourth outfielder candidate stashed away in Triple-A. However, once at the major league level, pitchers would exploit his deficiencies and render him fairly useless at the plate. The work ethic shown in being able to revamp his approach and swing has made him a useful component to the Twins. His stay with the Twins may be short-lived once Aaron Hicks proves ready to return; nevertheless, give Thomas credit for being willing and able to make enough adjustments in his approach and mechanics to have given himself value to the Twins . Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Maer.jpg Catcher framing is extremely popular in baseball research circles right now. Go over to Fangraphs.com or BaseballProspectus.com and you will find several studies and articles on the subject. It’s Hansel hot right now. While we can determine which catchers are better at getting more out-of-zone pitches called strikes than others, we still do not have a full grasp on what it means to a team’s bottom line.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In some ways, it feels like a butterfly effect. If a catcher is unable to get a borderline pitch for a punchout strike, it could mean an addition pitch for the pitcher which could mean a base hit which means another at bat which means an additional four or five pitches which runs up the pitch count and could mean going to the bullpen in the fifth rather than the sixth or seventh. One of the more recent studies on Baseball Prospectus found that Joe Mauer’s ability to coax the low strike. As Ben Lindbergh’s data shows, Mauer’s 19.5% strike rate low in the zone is well-below the average for catchers –in fact, 41.3% below average. By comparison, Milwaukee’s Jonathon Lucroy has excelled at getting this pitched called. His strike rate in the low portion is 77.1% (or 66.1% above average). (On the other hand, because of his tall statute, Mauer has been much better at getting high strikes versus the smaller framed Lucroy. Much, MUCH better. According to Lindbergh’s figures, Mauer is 86.3% better than the average at coercing the high strike.) Lindbergh provides a .gif that visually shows the difference between the two catchers’ called strike zones, not the bottom dark dots on Mauer’s chart that represent called balls: Download attachment: LucroyMauer (2).gif As a real-life example, in Tuesday night’s game against the Angels, with Anthony Swarzak cruising through his first inning of work, retiring Howie Kendrick and Chris Iannetta on seven pitches. He was in the middle of doing the same to Angels’ third baseman, Luis Jimenez, up 0-2 and twirled off this exquisite curveball: Here’s a thought: How does Mauer’s inability to get low strikes effect what is predominately a sinker ball rotation? In years past, Mauer’s height and tendency to get high strikes called would have played well for pitchers like Scott Baker who work mainly up in the zone with their fastballs. But with Vance Worley and Mike Pelfrey toeing the rubber, their arsenal is more reliant on getting borderline pitches called strikes in order to get strike three. So far, both pitchers are well-below their career strikeout norms. Obviously, plenty the blame needs to be assigned to the pitcher, but how much influence does Mauer’s handling have? Click here to view the article