Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Parker Hageman

Owner
  • Posts

    4,030
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Tutorials & Help

Videos

2023 Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Free Agent & Trade Rumors

Guides & Resources

Minnesota Twins Players Project

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Parker Hageman

  1. Interesting note from Berardino yesterday that Falvey was working on bringing Indians director of player development Carter Hawkins with him. Hawkins was in Falvey's wedding, which, I don't know necessarily means anything but it will be interesting to see how he assembles his front office. http://www.twincities.com/2016/10/02/byron-buxton-leads-minnesota-twins-to-season-ending-victory/
  2. After a week of reports suggesting that the Minnesota Twins had made their decision on the person to lead their baseball operations, the organization has finally made it official on Monday. The 33-year-old Derek Falvey, a Terry Francona-proclaimed “rising star” in Cleveland’s front office, will assume the positions of executive vice president and chief baseball official for the Minnesota Twins.The unofficial direction for Falvey is to make the Twins win again; however, the team's official statement says that Falvey will be responsible for establishing the vision and related strategies for the club’s baseball operation. “It’s a tremendous honor to have the opportunity to lead the Twins baseball operation. This is a proud, resilient franchise, and I’m eager to return championship-caliber baseball to the Twins Cities,” said the 33-year-old Falvey. “We will work diligently and collectively to select and develop top-performers, advance our process, and nurture a progressive culture that will make fans across Twins Territory proud.” Falvey's pedigree with Cleveland includes assisting Indians President of Baseball Operation Chris Antonetti and General Manager Mike Chernoff in financial, statistical, and contractual dealings as well as player development and procurement. He also worked closely with Indians manager Terry Francona in the scouting process. "He does everything," Francona told MLB.com. "I don't know how much you see it a lot of places, but we go to him a lot with questions. And, if he doesn't have the answer, he'll go find it. He's a great resource for even the coaches. I know Chris and Cherney use him, too, but we use him a lot." “Throughout his baseball journey, Derek has earned a reputation as a talented executive thanks to innovation, collaboration and a relentless pursuit of individual and organizational improvement,” St. Peter said. “We believe Derek represents the next generation of dynamic, game-changing MLB leaders. We expect Derek to create positive change directed at restoring our winning tradition.” Falvey will be introduced as the new head of the baseball side of the Twins’ front office at a press conference once the Indians season is over. Click here to view the article
  3. The unofficial direction for Falvey is to make the Twins win again; however, the team's official statement says that Falvey will be responsible for establishing the vision and related strategies for the club’s baseball operation. “It’s a tremendous honor to have the opportunity to lead the Twins baseball operation. This is a proud, resilient franchise, and I’m eager to return championship-caliber baseball to the Twins Cities,” said the 33-year-old Falvey. “We will work diligently and collectively to select and develop top-performers, advance our process, and nurture a progressive culture that will make fans across Twins Territory proud.” Falvey's pedigree with Cleveland includes assisting Indians President of Baseball Operation Chris Antonetti and General Manager Mike Chernoff in financial, statistical, and contractual dealings as well as player development and procurement. He also worked closely with Indians manager Terry Francona in the scouting process. "He does everything," Francona told MLB.com. "I don't know how much you see it a lot of places, but we go to him a lot with questions. And, if he doesn't have the answer, he'll go find it. He's a great resource for even the coaches. I know Chris and Cherney use him, too, but we use him a lot." “Throughout his baseball journey, Derek has earned a reputation as a talented executive thanks to innovation, collaboration and a relentless pursuit of individual and organizational improvement,” St. Peter said. “We believe Derek represents the next generation of dynamic, game-changing MLB leaders. We expect Derek to create positive change directed at restoring our winning tradition.” Falvey will be introduced as the new head of the baseball side of the Twins’ front office at a press conference once the Indians season is over.
  4. Last night's broadcast was the first time I've seen someone with the organization admit that Berrios' arm path was tipping his pitches. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/780961503985831936
  5. 1.) You are describing results, not process. Player development is focused on the latter. Wiel made an adjustment and was hitting the ball better in the second half of the season. That's a process improvement. 2.) My definition of fluky for a hitter is not what Wiel was doing. Fluky is doing the same thing in both circumstances and having a few more fly balls get wind-blown out of the park. As detailed, Wiel made a significant change and as such he was hitting the ball much better (not just results-based). Is it streaky? Maybe. Maybe. We certainly don't have enough of a track record to make that charge -- it's possibly that he goes to high-A next year and starts off ice cold. But as of right now, no, it is not streaky. To date, there is a pre-adjustment struggle and post-adjustment improvement.
  6. Here's the thing: It isn't a major change, it's going back to his roots. You can definitely put stock in the swing change as the factor behind the second half results. They are significantly better than they were at the beginning of the year. There's no questioning that. Has this swing change improved Zander Wiel this season and put him in a better position to succeed going forward? Yes, 100%. What I think you are trying to say is that you are not putting stock in his numbers just yet. And that is understandable. Players, coaches and hitting instructors will tell you that the next and/or last adjustment a hitter has to make is the mental side of the game. A guy could have the world's best swing but if he is always baffled by sliders and breaking balls in hitter's counts, he's not going to perform. Wiel hasn't reached that level yet where pitchers are good enough to attack in specific areas. That's just part of being in the lower levels of the minors. As I stress everywhere when discussing a mechanics adjustment, baseball is an organic game in which teams are constantly trying to find weaknesses at every level. Players are constantly making physical and mental adjustments. One thing that I should have stressed more is that Wiel already made one difficult adjustment -- some players do not do that and eventually wash out of the game. He willcertainly have more challenges ahead but this is a very good sign.
  7. Without bothering to check I have to believe most teams have power hitting 1B/DH prospects, so I am not optimistic he would be anything to build a trade around. We can give him away if some other team thinks he's the final piece to some bigger trade. Right, and to clarify, I'm not suggesting he is a guy teams will seek out, rather, he's the second or third guy involved in a trade -- particularly if he has another good year or two. If he hits, teams will want him. That's a good thing to have stockpiled in a system. FWIW Wiel was also a monster postseason. In five games we went 7-for-17 with five walks. And he's not just some hulking slugger, either. Including the playoffs, he hit 10 triples and was 7-for-8 in stolen base attempts. The guy is really athletic. Yes, he appears plenty athletic for first base. I haven't observed him play that much but plays like this makes me think that there is some ability to convert to an outfielder. Very good arm for a first baseman. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/756906191968534528 A dearth is exactly what they don't have. I kinda got caught between thoughts there. At the MLB level and AAA, they have a surplus. As I was rattling off the depth chart in Chattanooga and Fort Myers, there's a gap. Behind Wiel in rookie ball is one of my personal favorites in Lewin Diaz. A dearth is exactly what they don't have. Separate from the depth chart and his future, Wiel is interesting because he represents a player that has big athletic movements in the org and is having success with it. The Twins seemingly haven't coached his movements out of him and this would be a big positive if they could refrain from toning everyone down once they got into the system.
  8. Rather than trying to carve up the season into arbitrary segments, try to use a milestone for when a player makes at significant change. In this case, at some point toward the end of June (I can't pinpoint an exact date so I did use make a somewhat arbitrary divide), Wiel made the big swing adjustment. April-June: 309 PA .232/.309/.362 9.7% BB% 21.0% K% July-Sept: 259 PA .291/.360/.574 9.6% BB% 23.1% K% MID League Avg: .249/.317/.355 8.1% BB% 21.7 K% We're not talking about a Palka/Walker type strikeout guy. He's decisively average and, given his position and spot in the order as a run-producer, that is about where I would expect to see him. It's higher than you would see for a truly elite prospect but we're not talking all or nothing. In terms of why he wasn't promoted after he caught fire, Seth will probably have to give more insight on that. In Fort Myers, they had Trey Vavra who wasn't doing much offensively at first base. The Lookouts had DJ Hicks at first and he was (1) super old for the level and (2) not hitting that much. The funny thing about Hicks is that he actually put up better offensive numbers as a 23 year old with Cedar Rapids than Wiel did. I feel like there was opportunity there but the Twins may have just wanted him to build on that confidence. Long view, I don't know if I actually see Wiel winding up with the Twins. They obviously have a dearth surplus of first basemen and that's probably where they finally stick Miguel Sano before he becomes a DH (or Vargas or Park or whoever else gets old and slow). Maybe a position change is in order but I'm not sure if he has enough mobility to play right field. More likely, if Wiel can continue this production at the second half pace in higher levels, he might be a useful trade chip (say in a multi-player trade).
  9. The Minnesota Twins have developed a reputation for encouraging an archaic hitting philosophy to their prospects in the minor leagues. As other organizations have embraced big swings with big movements and working with them to bring out their best, hitters who have entered the Twins system get the cookie-cutter swing treatment: foot down early, head still, swing down. More and more there have been players in the system who have eschewed those methods only to see their production improve. There are examples of great swing transformations within the Twins’ minor league system that should be highlighted and, much like Max Kepler's in Chattanooga a year ago, Cedar Rapids’ Zander Wiel’s is one of them. While Brian Dozier’s incredible in-season turnaround has drawn all the attention, Wiel’s improvement at the minor league level is no less impressive.First, a little background on Wiel. Wiel’s career at Vanderbilt was often overshadowed by marquee players like teammate Dansby Swanson, who went first overall in the 2015 draft, as well as other big names in the SEC including Alex Bregman (second overall, Astros) and Andrew Benintendi (seventh overall, Red Sox). Wiel, meanwhile, put up respectable numbers in his junior year, finishing with 15 home runs (tied for fifth in the conference) and second in runs batted in (68). Those totals in a tough conference -- where pitching opponents included Florida’s AJ Puk and Logan Shore as well as LSU’s Alex Lange -- and future potential led the Twins in his direction during the 12th round of that year’s draft. The first thing that jumps out about Wiel’s college track record is the significant increase in his home runs total -- from 5 to 15 -- between his sophomore and junior seasons. The catalyst, he said, was the addition of a leg kick. The first baseman spent his first two years at Vanderbilt employing the standard toe tap (as you can see from his ). It was fine for contact but it was not generating the power results he desired as a corner infielder. Wiel spent the summer collegiate league refining and perfecting the movements that he felt put everything in better position to drive the ball. http://i.imgur.com/SRuJeBs.gif Despite the improved numbers, evaluators questioned how well Wiel would do in the professional ranks. Baseball Prospectus said that he “tends to get too far forward in his weight shift, sweeping the barrel through the zone rather than driving it” and wondered if he would struggle switching from metal BBCore bats to wood. MinorLeagueBall.com’s John Sickels noted that there were some concerns about Wiel’s “non-conventional” swing heading into the draft. Most outlets agreed that he would be taken sometime between the fourth and seventh rounds so the Twins considered him a steal in the 12th round when he continued to fall. In just his second game of his professional career, Wiel was hit by a pitch playing for Elizabethton and fractured his hand. He would miss the majority of that season, playing in the final ten games for the E-Twins. When he returned, in order to improve his timing, he simplified his swing by nixing the leg kick. With an entire offseason to heal, Wiel brought the modified swing with him to Cedar Rapids to start the 2016 season. http://i.imgur.com/PR17MJB.gif By the end of June, Wiel was hitting .232/.309/.362 with just four home runs in a little over 300 plate appearances. He said his timing was off. He felt robotic. He was getting beat on fastballs. He made a decision to go big. "Lifting my leg a little more has allowed me to have my trigger more ready to go," Wiel explained to MiLB.com’s Curt Rallo. "I was robotic. Now it's smoother for me. I'm able to see those pitches and hit them out front.” Wiel went even larger and more aggressive with his movements than his Vandy days. http://i.imgur.com/HEePV36.gif From July onward, Wiel hit .291/.360/.574 with 15 home runs in 259 plate appearances. His 19 home runs on the year were second in the Midwest League but it is hard not to think about what kind of damage he could do with an entire season with his new mechanics. Because it is the first thing someone notices about Wiel at the plate the leg kick draws the most attention but he also reset his hands in a better attack position. Previously, Wiel kept the barrel over his back shoulder and brought it straight up before launching it forward. Now his hands and bat are the quietest thing about his swing. The bat is tipped toward the pitcher and held still. This, he emphasized to reporters, was to keep him short to the ball and to keep him from being beat on fastballs inside. Wiel’s breakout in low-A ball is noteworthy, to be sure, but there are several caveats such as Wiel’s advanced age. At 23 years old, he is two years older than the league’s average. He’s older than Max Kepler, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Obviously Wiel had a delayed start to his career given that he spent three years in college (and one year redshirting) but you would like to see him outperforming a league in which he is younger than the pool. Nevertheless, Wiel’s breakout season is very much parallel with Kepler’s, who implemented a leg kick to his swing in Double-A and quickly rose on national prospect ranking. Wiel’s 2016 performance doesn’t seem to be a hot streak or fluky -- he’s made the right adjustments. Time will tell where he goes from here. Click here to view the article
  10. First, a little background on Wiel. Wiel’s career at Vanderbilt was often overshadowed by marquee players like teammate Dansby Swanson, who went first overall in the 2015 draft, as well as other big names in the SEC including Alex Bregman (second overall, Astros) and Andrew Benintendi (seventh overall, Red Sox). Wiel, meanwhile, put up respectable numbers in his junior year, finishing with 15 home runs (tied for fifth in the conference) and second in runs batted in (68). Those totals in a tough conference -- where pitching opponents included Florida’s AJ Puk and Logan Shore as well as LSU’s Alex Lange -- and future potential led the Twins in his direction during the 12th round of that year’s draft. The first thing that jumps out about Wiel’s college track record is the significant increase in his home runs total -- from 5 to 15 -- between his sophomore and junior seasons. The catalyst, he said, was the addition of a leg kick. The first baseman spent his first two years at Vanderbilt employing the standard toe tap (as you can see from his ). It was fine for contact but it was not generating the power results he desired as a corner infielder.Wiel spent the summer collegiate league refining and perfecting the movements that he felt put everything in better position to drive the ball. http://i.imgur.com/SRuJeBs.gif Despite the improved numbers, evaluators questioned how well Wiel would do in the professional ranks. Baseball Prospectus said that he “tends to get too far forward in his weight shift, sweeping the barrel through the zone rather than driving it” and wondered if he would struggle switching from metal BBCore bats to wood. MinorLeagueBall.com’s John Sickels noted that there were some concerns about Wiel’s “non-conventional” swing heading into the draft. Most outlets agreed that he would be taken sometime between the fourth and seventh rounds so the Twins considered him a steal in the 12th round when he continued to fall. In just his second game of his professional career, Wiel was hit by a pitch playing for Elizabethton and fractured his hand. He would miss the majority of that season, playing in the final ten games for the E-Twins. When he returned, in order to improve his timing, he simplified his swing by nixing the leg kick. With an entire offseason to heal, Wiel brought the modified swing with him to Cedar Rapids to start the 2016 season. http://i.imgur.com/PR17MJB.gif By the end of June, Wiel was hitting .232/.309/.362 with just four home runs in a little over 300 plate appearances. He said his timing was off. He felt robotic. He was getting beat on fastballs. He made a decision to go big. "Lifting my leg a little more has allowed me to have my trigger more ready to go," Wiel explained to MiLB.com’s Curt Rallo. "I was robotic. Now it's smoother for me. I'm able to see those pitches and hit them out front.” Wiel went even larger and more aggressive with his movements than his Vandy days. http://i.imgur.com/HEePV36.gif From July onward, Wiel hit .291/.360/.574 with 15 home runs in 259 plate appearances. His 19 home runs on the year were second in the Midwest League but it is hard not to think about what kind of damage he could do with an entire season with his new mechanics. Because it is the first thing someone notices about Wiel at the plate the leg kick draws the most attention but he also reset his hands in a better attack position. Previously, Wiel kept the barrel over his back shoulder and brought it straight up before launching it forward. Now his hands and bat are the quietest thing about his swing. The bat is tipped toward the pitcher and held still. This, he emphasized to reporters, was to keep him short to the ball and to keep him from being beat on fastballs inside. Wiel’s breakout in low-A ball is noteworthy, to be sure, but there are several caveats such as Wiel’s advanced age. At 23 years old, he is two years older than the league’s average. He’s older than Max Kepler, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Obviously Wiel had a delayed start to his career given that he spent three years in college (and one year redshirting) but you would like to see him outperforming a league in which he is younger than the pool. Nevertheless, Wiel’s breakout season is very much parallel with Kepler’s, who implemented a leg kick to his swing in Double-A and quickly rose on national prospect ranking. Wiel’s 2016 performance doesn’t seem to be a hot streak or fluky -- he’s made the right adjustments. Time will tell where he goes from here.
  11. Again, it's not the fingers itself that you should see, it's the action of what the hand looks like with that grip. Fastball hitters will see a smooth side while the changeup grip -- because of the fingers and the wrap action -- has different look. I keep referring to it as the red dot effect that hitters see with sliders. We have to remember, baseball players have ridiculously good vision and are constantly looking for a tell prior to the release of the ball.
  12. Sutcliffe has been a pitcher someone else compared him too. Look over his mechanics, I don't think he's gone as wide as Berrios does with his arm. Berrios' action was much more like Dwight Gooden's arm swing. http://www.tradingcarddb.com/Images/Cards/Baseball/134/134-520Fr.jpg Sutcliffe's early mechanics do look like he swung his arm out further but has brought the ball closer to his body as he aged.
  13. Right, the hitter is not seeing the pinky/fingers in real time. The position of that hand presents a different look from his fastball grip. In real time (as shown in the video above) hitters will be able to pick up on the difference between the two, similar to being able to see the red dot of a slider only with more advanced notice.
  14. There is a lot that goes into adjusting an arm path. Timing, release point, etc, etc. It's not an easy process.
  15. I mean...that's exactly what I said in the concluding paragraph. I know I can get long winded by try to stay 'till the end. The command issue/pitch tipping are not mutually exclusive either: A hitter who knows what they are looking for will also not chase the secondary pitches out of the strike zone in those pitcher's counts.
  16. When the Minnesota Twins called Jose Berrios up to the big club in late April, the fan base was abuzz with excitement. Berrios represented the system’s best hope for producing a top-of-the-rotation starter in over a decade. He had the velocity many of the Twins’ previous starting pitching prospects lacked and was able to put hitters away with one of two nasty secondary pitches. Minor league reports raved about his stuff and his numbers at the upper levels were highly encouraging. Unfortunately, like so many other promising prospects, Berrios did not immediately live up to expectations. Major League hitters blasted him around the ballpark. Over 11 starts, they posted a .988 OPS off of Berrios while tagging him for 12 doubles and 10 home runs. The laundry list of what Berrios needs to do in order to improve is long, but there is one that might be a quick path to having immediate success: Stop tipping his pitches.How is it that one pitcher’s change-up can go from a major weapon in the minors to such a crushable pitch overnight? In September 2015 MLB.com’s Bernie Pleskoff, a former scout for the Astros and Mariners, called Berrios’ change-up his best pitch. “I believe his change-up is his best overall pitch,” Pleskoff wrote. “It's the pitch that can gain Berrios a great advantage over the hitter. He is especially tough on left-handed hitters when his change-up sinks and he changes the eye level and balance of the hitter.” This year in AAA Berrios struck out 125 in 111 innings in part because of the devastating nature of his change-up. Hitters said the arm action mimicked his fastball’s release and dropped precipitously, inciting tons of missed bats in the minors. In fact, Baseball America said it was the best version of that pitch in the International League in 2016. And yet KABOOM. Scouts and hitters raved about the action of Jose Berrios’ change-up so the current results are clearly not based on it being an inferior pitch. So why is it that hitters are not chasing it out of the strike zone and obliterating the ones that do stay in the zone to pieces? Why has it worked at lower levels but not the big leagues? When a pitcher is tipping his pitches, there usually is a tell of some sort. Sometimes it is small like a different turn of the glove at the set position or a slightly different hand break. During the 1987 World Series, the scouting report on Frank Viola was that he held his fastball high in the glove and his change-up down. Other times it is hard to ignore, like holding the ball in the set position differently (such as holding it up by the face for a fastball or down at the belt for a breaking ball). After watching all the available video at BaseballSavant.com of him throwing his various pitches on loop for several weeks, I was stumped. Berrios did not exhibit any of those traits. Another possibility was how he delivered it. Last season Chattanooga’s manager Doug Mientkiewicz noted that he thought Berrios was telegraphing his change-up too much in 2014. Fast forward to this season, PitcherList.com did a high definition GIF breakdown of his first MLB start, categorizing each pitch type. With his change-ups, you notice deceleration of his body and he cuts off his finish differently than for his fastball and curve ball. Although I did consider this phenomenon as a potential source for tipping, ultimately Berrios’ deceleration happens after he releases the ball. Hitters would not be able to see this cue and adjust at the same time. As I stared at the computer screen trying to see the 3D sailboat in the video, it was only after seeing a still photo of Berrios pitching that the answer was so obvious. Let’s see if you can figure it out. Take a look at these two grotesquely blurry zoomed in images. Do you notice anything different between the two? Download attachment: Berrios_FBvCH.PNG Give up? On the one on the left, you will see a finger (his pinky) sticking up above the ball. That’s his change-up. On the right, you see all of Berrios’ fingers wrapped behind the ball. That’s the fastball. Take a look at a more high quality image from a front angle: Download attachment: USATSI_9460476_154617946_lowres.jpg Kim Klement // USA Today Berrios has been alerting opponents to what pitch he is going to throw behind his own back. Naturally, this seems too easy. After all, I’ve paused everything at the right moment. Would batters really be able to pick up that tell in the fraction of a second Berrios flashes the ball behind his back? Watch Berrios’ bullpen session from March ( ) and see if you can pick up on the quick flash: The Twins have said that they want Berrios to work on bringing the ball toward center field instead of toward first base but the way it is presented through the media, the instruction sounds more like a mechanical adjustment in hopes of better command and less like keeping teams from picking up on his pitches. Then again, the Twins may be well aware of the situation and are trying not to draw attention to it from other teams. (If that is the case...sorry, yo.) To be sure, changing an arm path is not an easy task. Pitchers have been told for years that certain delivery styles can be dangerous but they rarely make that adjustment because their current model is so committed to muscle memory. Given his innings total, it is unlikely that Berrios will have any time in winter ball to work on that, so the best will be bullpen side-sessions and some additional work in the offseason before getting several much needed months of rest. Don't be fooled by the early results: Berrios possesses some outstanding stuff. His biggest priority is to wrangle in command of his fastball in order to set up his secondary offerings. Throwing strikes is critical but from the mental side, it can been frustrating to throw what you feel is a solid pitch in a good location only to have it redirected back twice as fast. If he is also able to keep from alerting hitters to which pitch may be coming, that would be a significant improvement as well. Click here to view the article
  17. How is it that one pitcher’s change-up can go from a major weapon in the minors to such a crushable pitch overnight? In September 2015 MLB.com’s Bernie Pleskoff, a former scout for the Astros and Mariners, called Berrios’ change-up his best pitch. “I believe his change-up is his best overall pitch,” Pleskoff wrote. “It's the pitch that can gain Berrios a great advantage over the hitter. He is especially tough on left-handed hitters when his change-up sinks and he changes the eye level and balance of the hitter.” This year in AAA Berrios struck out 125 in 111 innings in part because of the devastating nature of his change-up. Hitters said the arm action mimicked his fastball’s release and dropped precipitously, inciting tons of missed bats in the minors. In fact, Baseball America said it was the best version of that pitch in the International League in 2016. And yet KABOOM. Scouts and hitters raved about the action of Jose Berrios’ change-up so the current results are clearly not based on it being an inferior pitch. So why is it that hitters are not chasing it out of the strike zone and obliterating the ones that do stay in the zone to pieces? Why has it worked at lower levels but not the big leagues? When a pitcher is tipping his pitches, there usually is a tell of some sort. Sometimes it is small like a different turn of the glove at the set position or a slightly different hand break. During the 1987 World Series, the scouting report on Frank Viola was that he held his fastball high in the glove and his change-up down. Other times it is hard to ignore, like holding the ball in the set position differently (such as holding it up by the face for a fastball or down at the belt for a breaking ball). After watching all the available video at BaseballSavant.com of him throwing his various pitches on loop for several weeks, I was stumped. Berrios did not exhibit any of those traits. Another possibility was how he delivered it. Last season Chattanooga’s manager Doug Mientkiewicz noted that he thought Berrios was telegraphing his change-up too much in 2014. Fast forward to this season, PitcherList.com did a high definition GIF breakdown of his first MLB start, categorizing each pitch type. With his change-ups, you notice deceleration of his body and he cuts off his finish differently than for his fastball and curve ball. Although I did consider this phenomenon as a potential source for tipping, ultimately Berrios’ deceleration happens after he releases the ball. Hitters would not be able to see this cue and adjust at the same time. As I stared at the computer screen trying to see the 3D sailboat in the video, it was only after seeing a still photo of Berrios pitching that the answer was so obvious. Let’s see if you can figure it out. Take a look at these two grotesquely blurry zoomed in images. Do you notice anything different between the two? Give up? On the one on the left, you will see a finger (his pinky) sticking up above the ball. That’s his change-up. On the right, you see all of Berrios’ fingers wrapped behind the ball. That’s the fastball. Take a look at a more high quality image from a front angle: Kim Klement // USA Today Berrios has been alerting opponents to what pitch he is going to throw behind his own back. Naturally, this seems too easy. After all, I’ve paused everything at the right moment. Would batters really be able to pick up that tell in the fraction of a second Berrios flashes the ball behind his back? Watch Berrios’ bullpen session from March ( ) and see if you can pick up on the quick flash: https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/776777915182743552 For hitters who have elite vision -- the same that claim they can pick up the red or white spin of the ball quickly -- this brief flash of color provides that all-important cue on which pitch speed to expect. For an experienced player like Torii Hunter, who was calling out Berrios’ pitches during a spring training live BP session, this seems easy to pick up on. It is no small wonder Berrios’ change-up has been teed off on and it also explains why his fastball has been hammered as well. Given how quickly video at the major league level can be passed around, it makes complete sense as to why he has been exposed with the Twins versus in the minor leagues. The Twins have said that they want Berrios to work on bringing the ball toward center field instead of toward first base but the way it is presented through the media, the instruction sounds more like a mechanical adjustment in hopes of better command and less like keeping teams from picking up on his pitches. Then again, the Twins may be well aware of the situation and are trying not to draw attention to it from other teams. (If that is the case...sorry, yo.) To be sure, changing an arm path is not an easy task. Pitchers have been told for years that certain delivery styles can be dangerous but they rarely make that adjustment because their current model is so committed to muscle memory. Given his innings total, it is unlikely that Berrios will have any time in winter ball to work on that, so the best will be bullpen side-sessions and some additional work in the offseason before getting several much needed months of rest. Don't be fooled by the early results: Berrios possesses some outstanding stuff. His biggest priority is to wrangle in command of his fastball in order to set up his secondary offerings. Throwing strikes is critical but from the mental side, it can been frustrating to throw what you feel is a solid pitch in a good location only to have it redirected back twice as fast. If he is also able to keep from alerting hitters to which pitch may be coming, that would be a significant improvement as well.
  18. I assure you with all the showcases and club teams, there is ample coaching for all US kids as well -- particularly those who stand out. Most metro areas have multiple facilities run by former college and pro players which operate club teams and do bring in kids from outside of the metro as well. In Buxton's case, his area of Georgia had Round Trip Baseball which taught kids but the program was still pretty new and paled in comparison to some of the programs around Atlanta and East Cobb. I do think this puts rural and low-income players at a disadvantage but the opportunity to get the right instructions still exist. In many ways those are similar to the camps the agents in the Dominican run -- only parents pay through the nose to get their kids the "best" instruction whereas the DR agent takes a chunk of your pro earnings if you sign a contract.
  19. Cooooouuuuuupllllaaaa things: 1.) All due respect to Fangraphs, TwinsDaily was the first to report the "front foot down early" hitting approach: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/joe-benson-and-the-twins-hitting-philosophy-r4302 2.) Buxton told me in spring about the Twins changing his approach in the minor leagues this past spring training: 3. He did come into the season with the leg kick, he just did not use it in 2-strike situations: https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/773933777051488256
  20. This was something I pointed out on Twitter during the Royals series: Teams aren't TRYING to pitch him up. They are definitely setting targets down-and-away but like all pitchers, they make mistakes. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/773201457881321472 For years I've preached that Brian Dozier crushes fastballs up in the zone and for years pitchers still leave that pitch in that area. Dating back to 2013, Dozier has more home runs than anyone on pitches in the upper third of the strike zone: 1. B. Dozier... 65 2. A. Pujols... 42 3. P. Goldschmidt... 37 4. E. Encarnacion... 34 5. M. Napoli... 34 I can't figure out why it happens so regularly. I don't know if his statute has something to do with it. When you look at the top three players with the most pitches in the upper portion of the strike zone over that time period, the leaders are Dozier, Brett Gardner and Jose Altuve. It must be exceedingly difficult for guys who are 6-foot-5+ to hit the knees of guys who are sub-6 and squatting. Here's where teams have been pitching him since the end of June: And here's where his home runs have been in the zone: In regards to where he swings overall, there is a stark difference between what he was swinging at since the start of the second half last season to the end of May this year. Then he began to really attack pitches on the inner half. This definitely jives with him discussing how he moved off the plate and opened up that portion of the zone again.
  21. That's far too simplistic for a complicated game. 1. Hughes was hurt in 2015. After 2014, he did not revert back to his normal the next year -- he got substantially worse. 2. Suzuki's 2015 got away from him. He struggled with his mechanics all season, constantly moving his head during his swing. Once again, he addressed some of those issues this offseason and bounced back to have a better year this season than 2014. As far as Dozier's future, you're right, it's likely to regress next year simply because this was a career year and opponents will spend all winter figuring out a strategy to keep him from beating them -- just like they did at the end of last season when they went away-away-away and this season when they stayed away and shifted the infield until he proved he could beat it. In regards to this statement... ...I don't believe this is a fact at all. Baseball is organic in the sense that once a player has success, the opposing team is going to do everything it can to eliminate that strength and exploit another weakness. You ask any veteran player in the game and they will tell you they have to adjust every season. Unless you are Miguel Cabrera and a human cheat code.
  22. In the top of the third inning on Monday night in Detroit, Brian Dozier tagged a 94 mile per hour Daniel Norris offering just over Comerica's left field wall and mere inches beyond a leaping Justin Upton's outstretched glove for home run number forty on the season. It marked the first time a member of the Minnesota Twins would reach that milestone since Harmon Killebrew did so on September 1, 1970. Dozier's current total is mind-boggling when you consider that on June 5 of this season, he had just six home runs to his name. (By comparison, Killebrew had 14.) Since then, Dozier has gone on a tear, launching 34 home runs. How did this drastic turnaround happen?A few weeks ago I stumbled across a post at Fangraphs.com that tried to explain why Brian Dozier was suddenly hitting every pitch 600 feet. It is something that Fangraphs does all the time. If there is a change in a player’s performance guys like Eno Sarris, Jeff Sullivan and August Fagerstrom do an excellent and thorough job of breaking down the ins-and-outs through stats and video. Occasionally when they are writing about a Twins player, they miss or overlook something that the local followers are aware of. It comes with the territory of trying to cover all 30 teams. This particular Dozier write-up was more geared for the roto reader -- those into fantasy baseball -- but the post dove head-long into a mechanical breakdown of Dozier swing. Based on this assessment, Sport Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe picked it up and used it as a part of his analysis in explaining why Dozier has been Baseball Jesus over the last few months. "[T]he 29 year old Dozier has done impressive damage thanks to an in-season mechanical adjustment," Jaffe wrote. Since many readers here also read a lot of Fangraph articles and writers like Jaffe, I figured I would take the time to make it clear what is and is not happening. As a preface, the author of the post is not wrong, per se. Fangraphs.com’s Scott Strandberg recognized that Brian Dozier has made some changes at the plate. There are some tweaks that are easily seen between his April stance and his August stance. It’s just that the conclusion is a bit off. The first change that Strandberg observed is that Dozier has indeed altered his pre-swing movements, adding a much more exaggerated bat tip prior to getting his hands back. You can easily see the differences in motion as he is now tipping his barrel all the way toward the catcher with a big sweeping movement: http://i.imgur.com/7afuWw3.gif http://i.imgur.com/rsYxTE5.gif That’s creating a rhythm to help time his movements with the pitcher. He's loose and oozing with confidence. In the screengrab from the Fangraphs article posted in the block quote above, the author notes that these are the two positions right before Dozier starts his swing in April and August. The conclusion is Dozier has brought his hands closer to his body and his bat upright right before he starts his swing. Depending on what you consider the start of his swing, it might not be wholly accurate. Backing out of the shot to where Dozier actually readies himself for the pitch, his hands and barrel are in a very similar position between the two dates. The newer model is slightly more upright than the previous version but in no way is it at the point that makes a significant difference to the overall swing. Certainly not to the extent that the screengrab would lead someone to believe. Download attachment: Dozier1.png When he gathers himself into the pre-launch position, with the front foot making contact with the ground, his barrel and hands are back to the exact same spot. Download attachment: Dozier2.png Dozier is doing something different prior to starting his swing that could be helping his timing which, in turn, may help him get to the pitch at the right moment. However, at all the critical portions of the swing, his hands and barrel are in the same spot. It is the second statement -- “This allows Dozier to get the barrel through the zone quicker, which goes a long way toward explaining the spike in hard contact, and his increased power on inside pitches” -- is a little off the mark. In regard to hitting the inside pitch, instead of focusing on the hand position in the screengrab, notice that Dozier is further off of the plate. In early May, Dozier explained to MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger the reason he moved away from the plate. "The way my swing works is that I have to create space," Dozier said. "I like to be able to get extended, but I felt trapped and that I had to cheat, which caused me to drop [my hands]. So it's night and day now. I feel good." Moreover, getting the barrel through the zone quicker has never been Dozier’s problem nor is it a reason why he's jacking so many bombs right now. As Tom Brunansky told me this spring, Dozier’s biggest problem was that his barrel was not in the zone long enough. He was too quick with his barrel in the zone, the exact opposite of what the author believes is happening. The major difference between the two style of swings is a bit more complicated and harder to see in video than what was present. Dozier has been getting behind the ball more -- meaning his barrel has stayed in the zone longer than it did at the beginning of the year. This is the mechanical adjustment where the rubber meets the road for Brian Dozier. The pre-swing hand placement is mostly eyewash, a great timing mechanism that does add a small trigger difference but not an influential component of his power binge. The real question is, with 18 games remaining in 2016, does Dozier have it in him to break Harmon Killebrew's single-season record of 49? Click here to view the article
  23. A few weeks ago I stumbled across a post at Fangraphs.com that tried to explain why Brian Dozier was suddenly hitting every pitch 600 feet. It is something that Fangraphs does all the time. If there is a change in a player’s performance guys like Eno Sarris, Jeff Sullivan and August Fagerstrom do an excellent and thorough job of breaking down the ins-and-outs through stats and video. Occasionally when they are writing about a Twins player, they miss or overlook something that the local followers are aware of. It comes with the territory of trying to cover all 30 teams. This particular Dozier write-up was more geared for the roto reader -- those into fantasy baseball -- but the post dove head-long into a mechanical breakdown of Dozier swing. Based on this assessment, Sport Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe picked it up and used it as a part of his analysis in explaining why Dozier has been Baseball Jesus over the last few months. "[T]he 29 year old Dozier has done impressive damage thanks to an in-season mechanical adjustment," Jaffe wrote. Since many readers here also read a lot of Fangraph articles and writers like Jaffe, I figured I would take the time to make it clear what is and is not happening. As a preface, the author of the post is not wrong, per se. Fangraphs.com’s Scott Strandberg recognized that Brian Dozier has made some changes at the plate. There are some tweaks that are easily seen between his April stance and his August stance. It’s just that the conclusion is a bit off. The first change that Strandberg observed is that Dozier has indeed altered his pre-swing movements, adding a much more exaggerated bat tip prior to getting his hands back. You can easily see the differences in motion as he is now tipping his barrel all the way toward the catcher with a big sweeping movement: http://i.imgur.com/7afuWw3.gif http://i.imgur.com/rsYxTE5.gif That’s creating a rhythm to help time his movements with the pitcher. He's loose and oozing with confidence. In the screengrab from the Fangraphs article posted in the block quote above, the author notes that these are the two positions right before Dozier starts his swing in April and August. The conclusion is Dozier has brought his hands closer to his body and his bat upright right before he starts his swing. Depending on what you consider the start of his swing, it might not be wholly accurate. Backing out of the shot to where Dozier actually readies himself for the pitch, his hands and barrel are in a very similar position between the two dates. The newer model is slightly more upright than the previous version but in no way is it at the point that makes a significant difference to the overall swing. Certainly not to the extent that the screengrab would lead someone to believe. When he gathers himself into the pre-launch position, with the front foot making contact with the ground, his barrel and hands are back to the exact same spot. Dozier is doing something different prior to starting his swing that could be helping his timing which, in turn, may help him get to the pitch at the right moment. However, at all the critical portions of the swing, his hands and barrel are in the same spot. It is the second statement -- “This allows Dozier to get the barrel through the zone quicker, which goes a long way toward explaining the spike in hard contact, and his increased power on inside pitches” -- is a little off the mark. In regard to hitting the inside pitch, instead of focusing on the hand position in the screengrab, notice that Dozier is further off of the plate. In early May, Dozier explained to MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger the reason he moved away from the plate. "The way my swing works is that I have to create space," Dozier said. "I like to be able to get extended, but I felt trapped and that I had to cheat, which caused me to drop [my hands]. So it's night and day now. I feel good." Moreover, getting the barrel through the zone quicker has never been Dozier’s problem nor is it a reason why he's jacking so many bombs right now. As Tom Brunansky told me this spring, Dozier’s biggest problem was that his barrel was not in the zone long enough. He was too quick with his barrel in the zone, the exact opposite of what the author believes is happening. The major difference between the two style of swings is a bit more complicated and harder to see in video than what was present. Dozier has been getting behind the ball more -- meaning his barrel has stayed in the zone longer than it did at the beginning of the year. https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/772893988034531328 As Dozier told the Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal recently, his approach at the plate is now “trying to knock down the center field wall” which is a cue to stay behind the ball and not necessarily an attempt to drive the ball to the middle of the field. "Staying behind the ball doesn’t mean trying to hit the ball the other way or up the middle,” he told Fangraphs' Sarris back in June. “I can hit 100 balls to left field and as long as I stay behind the ball and really backspin it with the top hand in a good position, I’ll get what I want.” In a recent home run swing, you can see that in his barrel turn behind him -- which is working on getting behind the ball and staying in the zone: https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/773380310369234944 This is the mechanical adjustment where the rubber meets the road for Brian Dozier. The pre-swing hand placement is mostly eyewash, a great timing mechanism that does add a small trigger difference but not an influential component of his power binge. The real question is, with 18 games remaining in 2016, does Dozier have it in him to break Harmon Killebrew's single-season record of 49?
  24. Right. You directly injured yourself on the field as a result of a play. That has some level of coverage. Pitchers who blow out their arms are not covered.
×
×
  • Create New...