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Everything posted by Danchat
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Article: 5th Starter Candidate: Alex Meyer
Danchat replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Madison Bumgarner, the starting pitcher who dominated the World Series, is 25 years old. He threw his first start with San Fran when he was 19. Alex Meyer is 25 and hasn't played in the majors yet. Yes, I know, there are major differences between the two in their development time and Meyer was injured. But Meyer needs to get in the majors ASAP. He dominated AAA and should have gotten his first few MLB starts behind him (like May and Gibson struggled through) when he was 24. Let's play Meyer while he's in his prime and before he reaches his 30s. By the time we'll be talking about the Twins in the playoffs (seriously, that is), Meyer could be 27 or 28. I want to see this guy lead our starters into the playoffs, and he needs to get his experience now. Start him. -
I think this is a pretty good move. I like Santana - though I am afraid because 2014 Santana looks a ton like 2013 Nolasco... but that doesn't mean he'll regress like Nolasco did. This is probably it for big FA moves. Our payroll doesn't have much room left, so if we do make any more moves, I'd find a CF.
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Article: Twins Select JR Graham, Lose Gilmartin
Danchat replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't think the Twins really wanted to keep Gilmartin. Too bad it turns out we got nothing for Ryan Doumit, but he wasn't worth much in the first place. -
Article: Twins to Name Paul Molitor Manager
Danchat replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For the people saying the coaching search was "a joke" or it was "fixed interviews"... I sincerely doubt they would have flown to California to interview Lovullo as "a joke". The Twins clearly took a glimpse at some of the coaching options out there. They just ended up liking Molitor more than any of the other options. I'm fine with Molitor as the manager, and I think Lovullo would have been just as good. I'm intrigued to see how things will work with a new leader in the clubhouse. -
"Committed to winning" is a very hard subject to define. Aren't all teams committed to winning? Are there teams out there committed to losing? I think the Twins would be willing to open up the checkbook. TR seems to have a lot of power, so if he asks the Pohlads to stretch the payroll, they're going to agree-they'll do anything to win and they'll agree with basically everything TR does. I have a feeling that Maddon isn't going to sit out 2015... he's definitely going to end up somewhere.
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Something tells me that the Pohlads aren't going to go out of their way to hire Maddon and have him be a superior to TR. The Pohlads appear OK letting TR do whatever he wishes. I wonder if Maddon really wants to be a manager or the head of baseball operations of whatever team he eventually signs with.
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Article: The Widening Search For a New Twins Manager
Danchat replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm not surprised Gardy isn't going to be a manager in 2015. I think he'll take a one year break and then attempt to land a coaching spot in 2016. -
Article: Ron Gardenhire Out As Twins Manager
Danchat replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This was inevitable. It's a good step in the right direction... but the big question is who will be the new manager? It appears that there isn't a favorite yet. This could potentially be very good or very bad for the Twins... -
I think locking up 100 to 120 million on a single player is a really, really bad idea. He could begin to regress in his middle 30s and become a complete waste of money. Look at how many people are/have been complaining about Joe Mauer! Signing Lester would get us back in the same situatino. I'd much rather draft a pitcher with the talent of Lester and wait for him and get him cheap and pitch him while he's young.
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Article: Twins Promote Eight for September
Danchat replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I actually thought we were going to see Polanco get called up, but it's okay that he hasn't. I also thought Vargas would be a Sept. call up but now it looks like he's cemented his spot in the lineup before September even started (at least for now. It's a bit early to be drawing conclusions.) -
I wouldn't worry about this. He just needs to get rid of the nerves he has. Kyle Gibson went through a similar situation and just needed some experience to get used to it. May will mature over time and will get better.
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I have to give it to our font office - we've really recovered since the Bartlett fiasco. Trading Morales was good... we'll see in September is Pyror is any good. The Fuld claim and trade was brilliant... and we'll see Milone in a few days. And now May coming up and Correia going bye-bye. I can't argue with any of these moves. I think it's safe to say that TR is doing a good job since his return. Antony, however, should definitely not be the next Twins GM.
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If Diamond Rebounds, Anderson should be fired immediately
Danchat commented on huhguy's blog entry in Blog huhguy
It's really hard to judge how much a coach affects each player. For Anderson, there are several arguments for and against. He's had a lot of underachieving starters but has been superb when it comes to the bullpen. When it comes to Diamond, he never had the stuff it took to be great. That's why we got him as a Rule 5 draft pick. His one good season was all luck. If Diamond can somehow turn around as a #4 starting pitcher or higher for a MLB team, that team must have a miracle worker there. I wouldn't put that on Anderson. However, when it comes to Worley, I'd blame our pitching staff if he continues to pitch well. -
Gardy already said in an interview that Hicks will need to face AAA pitchers before he gets back to the majors. So that means Schafer may have to start for a little bit. Two weeks is okay but it better not be the length that Clete Thomas ended up playing in CF last year.
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Article: Twins Claim Jordan Schafer from Braves
Danchat replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't want to change the topic, but I do wonder whether it'll be May or Milone with the next start. Also, I wonder who will be sent down when they have to do that. -
Article: Twins Claim Jordan Schafer from Braves
Danchat replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I can't say this is a bad move because it might mean less SSs in the outfield. Perhaps Schafer will click with our hitting coaches and bat a little better. If not, say goodbye and send him away. He's stolen a lot of bases, so he'll be a great pinch-run option. I do wonder who we'll send down to AAA. Colabello maybe? -
Article: Should the Twins Consider a Six-Man Rotation?
Danchat replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To the people who want Pino and Johnson DFA'd... These guys are the depth for our starting pitching. Starting pitchers get hurt. Look how many teams in the MLB have hurt starters. There is no reason to DFA these two guys. They should be in AAA during 2015 so we can use them if/probably when a starter gets hurt. However, I agree with dumping Correia and Burton. Neither will be here in 2015, so there's no point to be here now. At this point, Correia is blocking our young starters. Pino and Johnson aren't blocking them because they can be sent down at any time. The only thing blocking May and Meyer is the person who could call them up.- 42 replies
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Article: Kurt Suzuki Signs Extension With Twins
Danchat replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
$6M a year is fair. I love the part about the 2017 option only being based on PAs. However, something inside me tells me this move is not OK. We should be rebuilding, but we're not. We're continuing to play aging veterans which includes Suzuki, who will probably fall to a .250 batting average eventually. They aren't giving Pinto enough opportunities. You guys have already seen my frustration about May and Meyer. I really, really want to see Pinto play. And he could work at DH, but the problem is, that's Vargas's spot for now, and maybe next year Sano will get some DHing, and we'll also probably bring in an old veteran to play DH (a la Kubel/Willingham this year). There isn't room for Pinto. And that ticks me off because 2014 is about finding out what our minor leagues have in store for us instead of filling spots with old players. I have nothing against Suzuki, and I think his defensive capabilities and durability will make the deal a fair one. I just worry that eventually he'll be another black hole in this lineup, just like almost every other batter on this team. -
Article: Today's Official Trade Deadline Discussion
Danchat replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins rarely make deals at the deadline. I'm happy enough with Fuld, though I wished we moved Suzuki. Maybe he'll sign an extension later. -
Buxton Went 3 for 4 Wednesday Night
Danchat commented on Brian Mozey's blog entry in Blog Brian Mozey
Hopefully he'll reach AA by the end of the season. But it's too early to call up him in September - they won't want to add him to the 40 man roster this early in his career. Knowing the Twins, they won't start his clock yet. -
Handing Out Twins First Half Awards
Danchat commented on Cody Christie's blog entry in North Dakota Twins Fan
Yeah.... the Twins don't get the concept of a rebuild. It's not about playing aging veterans and holding back young prospects... Here are the Twins players on pace for having their rookie season: Josmil Pinto, Danny Santana, maybe Eric Fryer (not sure if he's already had his rookie season or if he'll play enough games), Yohan Pino (if he gets 25 more innings), possibly Michael Tonkin, and Kris Johnson if he can get more starts. (Gardy said that he's going to be in the second half rotation for now.) -
The answer is Pino. He's replacing himself. They just called him back up.
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Uh, Clowney is a guaranteed top 2 pick at worst. Houston is basically taking him, and if not, somebody is trading up to get him. Outside of that, the only complaints I would have is WRs Benjamin and Matthews being in the first round. Bortles probably won't fall that far, but if he does, I would expect the Vikings to try and nab him. It'd be a shame if the Jags actually got a good QB.
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Give this guy until the end of May and on June 1st, look at the numbers. If they stay bad, then it's time to DFA him. I still believe in Burton, but he's gotta prove he can still pitch.
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It's time for the predictions for the Twins pitching staff! Here's the format of my stats: ERA/K per 9/ BB per 9 Ricky Nolasco 2013: 3.70/7.4/2.1 2014: 4.53/6.0/1.7 Nolasco had a career year and cashed in with the Twins. His career ERA is 4.37 and that's 100% in the national league, and that's gonna go up with the Twins. He does have the capability to go past 6 innings, so in the end he will make the Twins more competitive. Phil Hughes 2013: 5.19/5.7/1.9 2014: 4.07/4.9/1.8 If the ballpark factor comes into play, Hughes will be our best pitcher. He's given up 59 HRs over the last two years, but hopefully that will shrink at Target Field. I am concerned about his strikeout rate, and it'll probably drop thanks to our pitching staff, but either way, Hughes will be a huge step forward from what we saw in 2013. Mike Pelfrey 2013: 5.19/6.0/3.1 2014: 4.98/6.4/3.1 Odd. Pelfrey had the exact same ERA of 5.19. Very odd. Coincidences aside, Pelfrey is now on year 2 of his recovery from TJ surgery, meaning he should be better. If you read my first blog, you know I turned off the TV whenever Pelfrey pitched. Ironically, the one game I saw at Fort Myers this year was watching Pelfrey pitch. He isn't spectacular, but I think he will improve. Kevin Correia 2013: 4.18/4.9/2.2 2014: 4.80/4.9/2.7 Everyone was surprised when Correia pitched well last year. Looking at his K/9, I'd say he won't be able to keep up his 4.18 ERA. But I'm no sabermetrics wizard, so I can't guarantee you anything. Expect he'll be mediocre, of course. Kyle Gibson 2013: 6.53/5.1/3.5 2014: 2.97/6.7/3.0 Yes. That's right. 2.97 ERA. Are you taking me seriously? No? My big prediction of the year is Gibson's emergence as our best pitcher. I wouldn't bet money on this, but I just have that feeling. He's got over his anxiety of being a rookie under pressure. He's further removed from TJ surgery. The stars have aligned. My predictions may look grim at times, but here is a shining light for all to see! (please, Gibson, prove me right. I will look like an idiot if you pitch as bad as last year.) Sam Deduno 2013: 3.83/5.6/3.4 2014: 3.61/7.7/4.0 Let's face it. When one of the five guys above gets injured, it's probably Deduno time. I predict he will start half of the games in the season, so maybe 16 starts. In the bullpen, his strikeouts should increase, but I fear his walks will grow too high. I'm worried for his health, but other than that, he will kick butt. Here's to hoping he won't fizzle out like Scott Diamond did. Anthony Swarzak 2013: 2.91/5.8/2.9 2014: 3.91/6.1/2.6 Compare Deduno's 2013 numbers with Swarzak's. Pretty similar, right? Well, Swarzak was in the bullpen, but their numbers are freaky close. Clearly the bullpen is the place to be, but he will regress after a fantastic 2013. He's going to be moving to the 7th inning role, which he won't be as good at. Still, don't worry about him. Brian Duensing 2013: 3.98/8.3/3.2 2014: 3.55/8.0/3.3 Duensing is still a bit of a mystery. After flaming out as a starter, Duensing found his value as a reliever. He's unpredictable, but his 8.3 K/9 was pretty radical. He won't get over 8.3 again but he's a solid lefty in the bullpen. Glen Perkins 2013: 2.30/11.1/2.2 2014: 3.00/9.2/2.4 Just gaze at those 2013 numbers. Keep looking. Man, what a year. He'll never be that good again, however, he'll live up to his new extension. At Fort Myers, he blew away the batters with his pitches. I couldn't help but smile. Perkins might just be my favorite current Twin right now. (Until Buxton makes the roster.) Jared Burton 2013: 3.82/8.3/3.0 2014: 2.73/8.1/2.5 Burton regressed last year, and in the setup role, blew every tie game he had. He won't do that again this year, and he'll return to his 2012 form. He is getting to the age where he could decline permanently, but let's not talk about that. His 8.3 K/9 clip looks pretty good and should remain there. Caleb Thielbar 2013: 1.76/7.6/2.7 2014: 3.66/7.9/2.6 I hate agreeing with the consensus, but Thielbar cannot possibly be as good as last year. That won't prevent him from having an overall postitive year, as a 3.66 ERA isn't bad for a former St. Paul Saint pitcher. Casey Fien 2013: 3.92/10.6/1.7 2014: 3.15/9.8/2.4 It just isn't right when you have a SO/BB of 6.08 (that's high) and your ERA balloons up almost 2 points. ERA is not the greatest stat and it's not close, and I don't believe it's super-accurate. However, if Fien pitches like he did last year, it will go down. I'm a fan of Fien and I hope he continues his dominant run in the bullpen. He could become the setup man. Michael Tonkin 2014: 2.37/10.9/3.7 Tonkin will come into the big leagues exactly how Thielbar did. He will dominate everyone and have a basement-deep ERA. He won't repeat these stats in 2015 but he's on his way to one day becoming the closer. That should be it, but I have one more bold prediction, and it's not pretty. Look away, optimists. Alex Meyer 2014: 6.73 ERA/8.5/4.5 I'm sorry if I upset someone. Just think about it. Nobody thought Kyle Gibson would have an ERA north of 6. And nobody thinks Meyer will struggle this bad... except me, the pessimist. I like him, but knowing our luck, he'll get hurt and keep pitching. I'm sorry if I poisoned your mind with grim predictions, but our pitching staff is getting much better. Please, leave a comment and I will respond back. I will analyze my predictions at the end of the year. Let's see if my big 2 predictions will come true!