Danchat

I kinda forgot Jason Kubel, even though I don't think he'll last long. DH/OF Jason Kubel 2013: .216/.293/5 Prediction for 2014: .198/.281/4 Last year was bad for Kubel, but at least his final season will be with Minnesota. I don't think he'll bat well, especially in Target Field, a pitcher's favorite. Good luck hitting HRs here, Kubel.

Now that the 25 man roster is finalized for the Twins, I'm going to publish my predictions here and then analyze them at the end of the year to see if I guessed anything correctly. -Stats I'm going to use- Batting Average/On base percentage/HRs C Kurt Suzuki 2013: .232/.290/5 Prediction for 2014: .240/.297/7 We all want Pinto to take over. Suzuki has severely declined over the last two years. As much as it seems like Pinto will take over, I think Suzuki actually has a decent year and gets his batting average up a bit higher. C Josmil Pinto 2013: .342/.398/4 Prediction for 2014: .266/.310/12 Insert *He's not possibly going to play as well as he did last fall* argument here. This is going to be the beginning of a great career for Pinto. Let's just hope he doesn't go down the Parmelee path. 1B Joe Mauer 2013: .324/.404/11 Prediction for 2014: .329/.406/16 Everyone is predicting an increase in Joe-Joe's batting average. I'll give him a small bump in BA but I do think he'll hit 5 more HRs, if that means anything. Don't expect him to get much better at the plate. 1B/Utility Chris Colabello 2013: .194/.284/7 Prediction for 2014: .222/.302/8 I've heard a lot of positive clamor about Colabello, but his numbers look pretty bad. His strikeouts (58 in 181 PAs) happened way too often, but if you're looking for positives, his 20 walks shows some upside. With experience, I think he will improve, however, at age 30, this is the best year he's going to have. 2B Brian Dozier 2013: .244/.312/18 Prediction for 2014: .263/.326/10 It was good to see Dozier break out of his slump around halfway in 2013 and pull out a good sophomore year actually a weak rookie season. Batting leadoff, his BA will go up but his HRs will suffer, but that's fine as long as he's getting on base for Mauer. SS Pedro Florimon 2013: .221/.281/9 Prediction for 2014: .202/.260/6 If I've learned anything from watching tons of baseball and football, it's that injuries nag players and can wreck seasons even when the player seems to have recovered from the injury. This is a wild guess here... but I'm going to speculate that Florimon won't be 100% after his appendectomy and he'll play through it. He already can't hit, and even though I hate to project regression, I think he won't do very well. 2B/SS Eduardo Escobar 2013: .236./282/3 Prediction for 2014: .256/.291/7 I'm aboard the Eddie 400 train. I hope Escobar gets at least 400 ABs because I think he has some potential. He had a hot streak last year but he lost his groove quickly. His bat can come alive when he's hot, but when he's not, he struggles at getting walks. I'm looking forward to watching Eduardo play this season. 3B Trevor Plouffe 2013: .254/.309/14 Prediction for 2014: .239/.288/15 I'm not a fan of Plouffe. He's basically Danny Valencia (who I liked) except... okay, I can't come up with a good reason why. It's mostly his defense, but his hitting is so inconsistent and could have hit more HRs last year. I hope he surprises me and has a solid 2014, but I just don't see it. LF Josh Willingham 2013: .208/.342/14 Prediction for 2014: .211/.319/9 I really like Willingham. But there isn't much hope for him. Just take a gander at his stats in spring training. As Pat Reusse said, he's finished. I really want the Hammer to succeed, but I don't see it. He can only hit pop-ups, strikeout, or walk. And he walks and takes pitches like a boss. But that's it. 2012 was a great year, Josh. I'll always remember that year with him mashing 35 HRs. CF Aaron Hicks 2013: .192/.259/8 Prediction for 2014: .229/.285/14 OK, Hicks, let's forget last year even happened. It was bad. People point out that he walked 24 times, and then I'll reply that he struck out 84 times. Dang. It will be a long road to earning that CF spot, but I think he improves, and in 2015, he'll crack .250 and 15 HRs. RF Oswaldo Arcia 2013: .251/.304/14 Prediction for 2014: .279/.328/22 I like Oswaldo. He's on his way to becoming a really good player. He's like Jason Kubel on steroids. Hopefully will cut his strikeouts away, though it will take a long time for him to work on it, in the long-term, his kid is going to go down as a great Twin. He gives me hope for this 2014 team. Coming soon, the pitching predictions for 2014.

Man, I sure hope we don't re-sign Pelfrey. Sure, he's a #5 pitcher but so is everybody else except for Nolasco. I think we need one more arm in the rotation and it sure better not be Pelfrey. Plus, how in the world is he worth $8M a year? I know everything is inflated but nobody is going to burn that kind of money signing him... right? We need a solid #2 pitcher to complement Correia, Deduno, Nolasco, and whoever goes in that final spot. And it sure better not be Mike Pelfrey.

This is my first blog post... so bear with me, folks. It's not hard to make a report card type of blog, so I'm going to focus on my own analysis of the players and the improvement they've made. And for many, regression that has happened. So, without further ado, let's take a look at how our pitchers did this season... get your barf bags ready. SP Kevin Correia, 4.18 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 I chose these specific stats because that's what I will analyze for these players. Believe it or not, Correia had has 2nd best season of his career (as a starter) and surpassed my expectations. He's raised his strikeouts slightly and also had his lowest walk rate ever. He did what he was signed for, and no matter how this $10 million was spent, they got what they could out of him. SP Mike Pelfrey, 5.19 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 So which Pelfrey are we going to get... the one who can go 6 innings and give up 1 run? Or the one that implodes in the 2nd inning? ESPN nominated him for the midseason Cy Yuck and they had good merit. Pelfrey is a last resort #5 option in the rotation and I want nothing of him next season. Although he was capable of strikeouts (getting a career high 6.0), he rarely ever escaped the 6th inning and isn't capable of many innings. He clearly regressed, but he was coming off Tommy John surgery and entered the American League for the 1st time. SP Scott Diamond, 5.43 ERA, 3.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 I don't want to repeat what everyone else is saying. Yeah, he was bad. But holy mother of pearl, 3.6 K/9??!?!? No wonder he was a punch bag for these batters. After an impressive rookie reason, Diamond followed it up with a complete clunker. So which Diamond are we going to get? Unfortunately, I'd bet he's just as bad next year. SP Sam Deduno, 3.83 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 Wow, we could call him Deduno 2.0. How in the world did he manage NOT to strike out over 6K/9 innings? At least they lowered his walk ratio to around league average, but I think he has some unearthed potential. If the Pirates got their hands on this guy, they could make him better than Liriano right now.... but the big problem is Deduno's health. He should be ready for next year, but he's a glass cannon. He is clearly the most improved of the starters. SP Pedro Hernandez, 6.83 ERA, 4.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 My gosh.... how in the world does Hernandez qualify as the 5th starter? This is seriously worse than last year. That atrocious ERA is backed up by his other stats, like the revolting 1.82 WHIP he had. If you're not going to strike anyone out, his BB/9 should be under 3.0 at least! There is no reason for him to pitch for the Twins ever again, and if he does, please, let it be in the bullpen. SP Andrew Albers, 4.05 ERA, 3.8 K/9, 1.1 BB/9 Well, if you're going to refuse to throw strikeouts, at least he doesn't walk anyone. There's nobody close to him on this team with a 1.1 BB/9. However, I don't buy his 4.05 ERA. He's extremely flukey and is reminiscent of Scott Diamond. I would welcome him into the rotation next season but I suspect he'll decline. SP Kyle Gibson, 6.53 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 Everyone was excited to see Gibson pitch... and now we understand why he wasn't rushed. These stats couldn't be more disappointing for him (except maybe the next guy on the list).There is nowhere to go but up and I hope that applies for his K/9. I do expect him to throw less walks. I also suspect the pitching staff is responsible for his failures. He has so much talent, so how can he flop like this? SP Vance Worley, 7.21 ERA, 4.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 Words can not do this justice. Worley's regression from Philly is astounding beyond measure. His ERA increased from 3.50 to 7.21, faster than that guy on the Supersize Me movie could gain weight. His K/9 plummeted from a respectable 7.7 to 4.6. And worst of all, his Hits/9 went from 9.0 to 15.2. YOU HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING A GUY OUT WITH A PITCHING MACHINE. That is all for the starters. Hendriks, Walters, and De Vries are so bad/meh/unimportant that they don't need to be mentioned. CL Glen Perkins 2.30 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 What a phenomenal season from Perkins. Every stat shows he was incredible, and while he likely won't be able to keep up these stats, it looks like we have a reliable closer for the future. He probably had the best season of his career. 'Nuff said. RP Jared Burton 3.82 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 I have a thing for Burton, he's one of my favorite pitchers on the team. (maybe because he's semi-competent, like few others?) However, it seemed whenever there was a tie game in the 8th inning, Burton would come out and blow it. He somehow lost 9 games this way. His stats looked pretty good, and I think his ERA will drop next year. I'd say he had a slight regression, but it was unlikely he was going to repeat last year's campaign. RP Josh Roenicke 4.35 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 5.2 BB/9 Not sure what to think of this guy. I thought Tim Wood or Alex Burnett would take this spot from him, and he held it the whole year. He's hittable, OK at strikeouts, and walks way too many guys. Yet he had a sub-4.00 ERA most the year, inflated by a couple really bad outings. He had a great season, but it sure looks like he can't possibly keep this up. I expect him to find a job elsewhere. RP Casey Fien, 3.92 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 Fien topped last season with an even better year. He was elite and shut down several games, winning 5. When he gave up runs, it was typically in non-important situations. The Twins found him with a minor league deal and now have a menacing reliever who strikes out over a batter per inning. Just look at that juicy BB/9 ratio. Nice! He won't keep those numbers up next year, but I think he'll continue his dominance. Kudos to the Twins management for finding this gem. RP Brian Duensing, 3.98 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 I think the perfect adjective for Brian Duensing is "meh." He's hittable, gives up runs, and is a specialist. His ERA is low in my opinion, and he's likely to regress next year in my opinion. He's hit his ceiling and it might be time to move on. Perhaps we can trade him after he signs his RFA deal. I'd like to see someone like Tonkin take this spot. RP Anthony Swarzak, 2.91 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 Three cheers for the best long reliever in baseball! Hip hip.... OK, maybe he's not the best, but he just had his best season (probably in his career). He isn't as hittable as before (8.3 H/9) and is very important for the (seemingly daily) game where the starters can't make it past the 5th inning. Sign this guy up because until we have a reliable starting staff we'll need this doctor to stop the bleeding. RP Ryan Pressly 3.87 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 Who expected this guy to make the team? Who expected him to pitch the whole season? The Rule 5 pick out of Boston's minor leagues looked really good early in the season and slowly has declined. In his rookie season, Pressly looks like a future Duensing or Swarzak to me. I love that the Twins have a surplus of guys who can throw in the bullpen, but I fear the time they'll move him to the starting rotation. Hopefully he stays in the pen and continues his success. RP Caleb Thielbar 1.76 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 Speaking of surprises, Thielbar has sure been a welcome addition. Another rookie, Thielbar has looked dominant and I seriously see little reason for his numbers to decline. I know that 1.76 ERA is bound to increase, but he passes the eye test (at least my eye test) and gets strikeouts and key outs. I forsee him having a key place in the bullpen one day. Phew... that's all for now. Expect the batters on Wednesday. Feel free to comment or agree/disagree on anything.

It's a pretty good article. I still find it ironic how when we finally became one of the "richer" teams, we went completely downhill one year afterwards. It's not about the money.... However, the philosophy about pitching to contact needs to go. NOW. We can't go forward with the Plefreys, Correias, Diamonds, and Marquis pitchers. I'm not saying we should spend 50M or more on a starter, but we have to do something to find reliable starters.

Yeah, I agree with you here. Benson isn't going to be good here and needs to get a fresh start in Texas. I don't buy the 'personality' stuff.