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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    That's how you have to start the year, IMO. Let it ride for 6 weeks and re-evaluate based on what Hicks is doing in Rochester and what regression is or isn't doing to Escobar / Santana.
  2. Willihammer
    There's only one way this team can return to contention
  3. Willihammer
    Yep. I'm current on all the new Internet memes and stuff.
  4. Willihammer
    Or just straight up ice bucket challenge him while he's in town. That's still a thing right? Polar plunge maybe.
  5. Willihammer
    I'd guess we're looking at a 60/40 target Hughes - Suzuki (this is a lock) Santana- Suzuki Gibson - Pinto Nolasco- Suzuki May/Milone/5th starter - Pinto
  6. Willihammer
    Interesting. Any theories as to why UZR says Jones was an above average LF and CF but a below average RF?
  7. Willihammer
    I've asked before about TF's 23 foot RF wall and its impact on UZR scores. If I understand you correctly, any balls that bang off it will (unfairly) penalize the RF's UZR score the same way Jones' UZR was hurt by the baggie. Something to consider when talking about the quality of the Twins RF defense.
  8. Willihammer
    IMO you're underrating Sano's ceiling, by a lot. What he did in 2013 from a power perspective was around 4 standard deviations above the mean compared to all minor leaguers for his age-level between 1994-2005. Four. It was an outlier. Therefore I'd say his ceiling, in terms of HRs/year, has the potential to be an outlier too. 30 HRs would not be an outlier.
  9. Willihammer
    I would also put Sano #1 if I made a list. Its impossible to put a cap on what kind of slugger he could be since there's basically no precedent for the type of production he put up in 2013
  10. Willihammer
    In my mind Mussina was kinda the Halladay before Halladay. Funky straight arm delivery. Threw about 12 different flavors of junk, nothing straight. If he was a lefty they would have called it "cunning and guile." One of these guys who you are reading the paper one day and looking at the AL pitching leaders and there's Mussina among the top in ERA and IP and then you realize you've seen his name there every year for the past 10 years. A no doubt HoFer in my mind.
  11. Willihammer
    I understand the need for depth in the bullpen - there's no quicker way to start a dumpster fire with fans than for the bullpen to blow winnable games. But I keep thinking back to the draft and pick after pick being high velocity college relievers. Hope those guys have some bullets left if/when they ever make it to the Twins. The shelf life seems to be short with those guys pretty often.
  12. Willihammer
    I would have said Arcia but the fact that his back has been bothering him for the better part of a year is pretty worrying. I am stoked about all 3, but I think Pinto may be the best hitter next year while Vargas and Santana could take some lumps.
  13. Willihammer
    Its the biggest deal for a setup guy, but there's precedent. Crain setup Nathan for a couple years before signging a 3 year deal with the Whities. Benoit signed a big 3 year deal that same offseason IIRC. The point is unchanged. Using relievers based on performance and leverage, and rest, makes more sense, at least on paper, than giving them titles and reserving super specific jobs for them.
  14. Willihammer
    Setup men are definitely in the same conversation. See Andrew Miller and his 4/36 contract without a single save last year. edit: setup men aren't yet in the HoF conversation but they're in the money / status conversation for sure.
  15. Willihammer
    Its so annoying. Does anyone trust Glen Perkins or Fien anymore? Both seemed pretty wasted at the end of the season if you ask me, and the Twins didn't even give them that many hold and save opportunities! What if they have more leads next year! They will have to change things up. Its not just a Gardy quirk that Molitor is automatically going to change either. Everyone does it, there is money tied into the "save" and "hold" stats and probably a clubhouse chemistry aspect too. But IMO managers should pay more atttention to leverage, matchups, and regulating the workload of guys evenly over the season, and pay less attention to the "hold" or "save" stats which probably don't help with the longevity of a bullpen down the stretch, especially if your team is any good.
  16. Willihammer
    Interesting read. I don't think many would like to see Dozier extended through age 33, at least, not for guaranteed money. An extension through his arb years with team option(s) for the FA year could be team-friendly, if he ages well. Arb raises are going to happen, unless he falls off a cliff in his age 28-29 seasons, and of course free agency after that will be a bigger raise yet if he stays healthy/productive. The price of an extension at this point would be, I believe, quite cheap. On the other hand, his arb raises aren't likely to skyrocket into the 12-15m range, probably, so the savings might not be significant, depending on what payroll contraints the team faces in 2-3 years. There are reasons to consider both approaches, and projected decline through age 31 or so should definitely factor.
  17. Willihammer
    I look forward to more Arcia and Pinto in 2015 as well. Lots of young bats on the roster that could breakout in 2015.
  18. Willihammer
    Looks like Stauffer has a slight reverse platoon split - .260/.331/.406 vs RHB and .255/.317/.395 vs LHB. The changeup I assume, although it looks like he's not afraid to throw that pitch to same-handed batters (14% against RHB in 2014 were changeups). Maybe he was a guy Neil Allen liked?
  19. Willihammer
    I'll be honest, if I were the one sitting at the table with binders full of crap for me to sign, my autograph would quickly revert into a scribbly signature. I wonder if Killebrew had anywhere near as many fan events and such in his day (or even Hunter, Morneau, Cuddyer, etc).
  20. Willihammer
    I also have no problem with Santana logging more innings in the OF. He looked OK out there to me and while I'm not gungho about Escobar, I would prefer his bat to Schafer's or Hicks.' Molitor can always swap in a better defensive arrangement if the Twins manage to get a lead.
  21. Willihammer
    Nice writeup, it is amazing how many mechanical issues boil down to footwork. I don't know if Hicks should keep switch hitting or not, I just hope he comes to sprint training with ears open and the goal of turning his career around, that would be a huge boost for this team.
  22. Willihammer
    There are two different points at issue - whether an ace, however you define that, is necessary to be a contender, and, whether lousy team must develop an ace from within. I think the latter is obviously untrue, just by looking back at teams that make the playoffs this decade - the 2014 O's, Royals, and Pirates being the most recent examples of teams who used to be lousy, then went out and got their #1's through trade or free agency. As for the first point, every fan would love for the Twins to have one of the best pitchers in the game. Luckily they do - Phil Hughes.
  23. Willihammer
    I'm not convinced that's the magic formula (look at the 2014 Dodgers, or the Angels, or the Cardinals, or the A's...) but for sake of argument, was Hughes season worse than Bumgarners?
  24. Willihammer
    You don't need to look very far back to find counterexamples to that statement. The 2014 AL champs were fronted by a trade acquisition and 2 free agents. Similar story for the Pirates and O's. There are countless other playoff teams and World Series winners if you look back through the years. There are a lot of ways to put together a contender.
  25. Willihammer
    OK well by that standard of "regression" you should probably take Vargas out of your worse bucket since he batted .852 in the minors.
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