Tim

.The Dozier era and Polanco situation are 2 fairly different things

This. You are spot on, I actually think that Baseballtradevalues has him slightly lower than what he should be. He would bring back a bigger return than Berrios IMO

a 4 WAR power hitting 2nd basemen with 4 years of team control left at an avg of about 8 mil a year will with out a question get you a haul. Mariners do not have a prospect for the position. Like none, not sure where you got that. Marlins ownership has expressed their desire to win now and will likely shift Jazz to short. Surplus of young pitching to deal from.

Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Blue Jays potentially ... If a contending team were to add Polanco, 90% would improve significantly. Check out WAR .. and literally any other stats with 2nd basemen around the league. You'll get a haul. Posted about this topic last week, check it out!

Did you ever consider the reason its dramatically lower?? Because teams see the value in locking these players into extensions that are 8 + years and massive money to avoid a bidding war. The Dodgers (betts) and Mets (lindor) literally gave up assets to hand out contracts to players of that caliber. I apologize for condescension but if you are going to be arrogant and not even acknowledge your wrong, it makes having a healthy debate difficult.

2019 Bryce Harper - 330 Mil / 13 Years Manny Machado - 300 Mil / 10 years 2020 Gerrit Cole - 324 Mil / 9 years Stephen Strasburg - 245 Mil / 7 years ... Teams do seem really reluctant to spend big and commit long term to top players. Have a nice rest of your day.

Your knit picking now to fit your argument. Absolutely none of those players come close to the caliber of player Seager is. Springer and Realmuto? is that your argument? if Springer got 6 /150 at age 31, what would he have gotten if he were on the open market at 27 like Seager? Now players that do fit into the same tier as Seager - Lindor, Betts, Arenado, etc .. I don't even understand how you are still trying to defend your take.

27 year old short stops who have a career .870 ops and a WS MVP don’t hit the open market too often. that’s about all the context needed. what were the terms on Lindor’s extension about 7 months ago? What about Mookie Betts and Nolan Arenado the year before? Apologies, but your wrong

There’s about a 0% chance Corey Seager signs a 4/108 mil deal to be a free agent at age 32. Scott Boars blocks your number after that. there’s already talk about a potential move in the next few years to 2nd or 3rd. Look at the issue Semien is facing right now at 32. Agents know the history. After a new CBA is in place, teams always spend huge money. No one is signing until that’s done, then seager is getting the brinks backed up

Yea if i was wrong i would give you the benefit of the doubt. The Rays are in a league of their own and that’s factoring in all professional sport franchises. Funny thing is, they repeat that rebuild model on a micro scale year after year.. With the financial limitations, they understood free agency wasn’t an option. To combat the issue, trading key players prior to the expensive years in ARB or moving them if on a team friendly deal was their solution (2-3 years of control remaining) Moving these pieces early enabled them to maximize value for either top prospects or players w longer control.. (it’s about to come full circle) ….All in an effort to support their next wave of homegrown talent…. It literally is the exact same premise, but on an annual basis rather than a 5 year project… it’s incredible. (Now the scouting w International signings and draft classes is beyond me) Again, you are proving my point how small market clubs win vs a big payroll team. How about we agree on this, there’s 2 1/2 ways to win in baseball. The Giants though is a fun story, I suppose a team constructed of wounded old players like that is bound to get lucky every 10-15 years.

Here’s the difference, financially baseball is unlike any sport. TV deals, large markets, no salary cap, etc. There’s a huge discrepancy when you factor that very large aspect of the game into this argument.. Some sites include the Scherzer deferred $$, some don't .. Point is, it was very high. Jays signed 2 guys to 1 year deals for a combined 25 mil and both had MVP/ CY young caliber seasons. Your right, probably will be worse. I'd love to go into off-season's knowing that is an effective strategy. But what you and i both know is that's luck, banking on crossing your fingers for a dream season like the Giants is fun when your living that 1 season. What is a model for success, is building a team the right way, the results are black and white.

Yes, the Cubs and Astros both won championships using similar methods. That literally is the exact point I'm trying to get across. What other organizations have attempted a similar model in the past 10 years? The Royals, worked well for them too .. Clearly it has a high success rate as we have now gone 3/3 in what I'm trying to get across. Look around right now .. Teams see this and are replicating it. I don't have the time to dig into the next 5 years and how these rosters are constructed but I can guarantee a very small number is committed White Sox. They look to be in great shape with Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Yoan Moncada all under arbitration or team friendly deals until 2025, Blue Jays Mariners They all are going to be around for a very long time, all in thanks to this method. Padres kinda did it, but they screwed up and did exactly what everyone is clamoring for the Twins to do and spend money just to be semi competitive. Now they are stuck trying to unload an owed 60 mil combined between Wil Meyers and Eric Hosmer, Now you are right, the other way to win in baseball is to have a payroll within the top 2 like the other 3 world series champs you didn't mention. (2020 Dodgers, 2019 Nationals, and 2018 Red Sox) There's 2 ways to win in baseball. It's have a ____ ton of money OR rebuild and support your core with top FA's when the window is open. —— To think tanking is the only way this can be achieved is ridiculous btw.. Joe Ryan and Austin Martin + SWR, who are top 50 prospects in baseball, will be in Minnesota together next year and some point will be apart of the next core. All will enter arb roughly at the same time. Oh, Larnach, Kirilloff, Ober too.

I included 2013 because that was Anthony Rizzo's first full season season at the major league level. Kind of the kick off to that era….

exactly what happened .. I'm sorry what is the question??

The Twins had "one very good starter" in Berrios this previous year. Didn't seem to change the rotation too much. Ober and Ryan, sure ... Still a lot of work to do.

They will have money and could absolutely go after a couple big name guys. But just because you got money to spend, does not mean spend it. I'll use the 2013 - 2016 Cubs as an example.. The Cubs core of top prospects were all strategically on the same development timeline. Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Hendricks, Russell, Soler, etc. all were on timelines that would roughly have them on track to enter FA at the same time. They understood that once those guys have proven they can perform at the major league level, the front office is on the clock and its on them to bring in a supporting cast in FA. Aside from guys entering the early years of arbitration, they didn't have long term contractual commitments on the books. This model enabled them to sign guys like Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, Lackey, etc. While some of those signings didn't work out, they won a world series. They were able to grab the top players on the market because they were patient and knew that when the time came, they had the cash to go all in and sign whoever they wanted for their championship window. The Twins are a bit of a mess and realistically a few years away from being competitve. If you line them up against this model in terms on money on the books and who their core is, it's tough to find similarities. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't try and replicate this blueprint to some extent.

Correa is literally the odds on favorite to win the gold glove at SS. Also first in defensive runs saved at short, no one cares about his past. Clearly, at age 26, he developed with the glove and is the great SS that everyone has projected him to be.. Really not that uncommon, especially at short, for it to take time figuring it out defensively. Admit defeat and move on my guy.

Correa is the only true shortstop long term and one id feel most confident signing longterm. I’d keep an eye on what the dodgers end up doing with Corey Seager. If they end up with an extension, I’d look to lock in on Trea Turner next offseason.

Not loving Gant at 3.7 million, it was fun while it lasted .. I'd try and fill his spot with a similar player, maybe more upside. Something along the lines of a 24 year old righty that can pump it up to 100 and has a nasty slider .. wait. Roll the dice with Moran or Cano and use that 4 mil (or less) to try and sign someone with somewhat of a proven track record having success out of the 'pen.

Gausman is the only top tier pitcher I would have confidence in throwing money at long term ... I do like Stroman and clearly he has the track record, but his frame worries me. If the Padres are serious about shedding salary, Yu Darvish at what is essentially at 2/40 million deal is my favorite option.

Buxton and Garver could very well be moved

I literally acknowledge that his value is at his absolute lowest. It goes with out saying he won’t be ranked that high to begin next year.

I'd really want to hear your rational for trading a former no. 1 pick and top 20 prospect in all of baseball, who missed an entire year with a torn ACL, right now .. I mean you'd be selling at the absolute lowest value. As for Martin, they just traded their "ace pitcher" for him 3 months ago., they clearing see him as apart of their future plans.

Well actually in terms of WAR, the gap between Arraez and Polanco is only 1.4 .. Yes, you lose power, power at 2nd is a luxury.... But to say we don't have anyone close to replace him at 2nd is just inaccurate. They also just traded their "ace" for a top 30 prospect who's pretty much major league ready and will most likely end up at 2nd. There is no such thing as an underrated player to major league front offices. The statistics I listed above justify that over a 3 year sample size, all public information.. Underrated in terms of popularity amongst fans? maybe I guess. This is a big picture trade to benefit the growth of the organization in the long run. Having a power hitting 2nd basemen is a luxury for a playoff contender, not a rebuilding club.

For as much as a buzzkill the Twins 2021 season was, Jorge Polanco gave many Twins fans a reason to watch. Breaking out in 2019, Polanco hit 22 HRs and drove in 79 RBI with a slash line of .295/.356/.485. Polanco scuffled during the 2020 covid shortened season but was also playing with an ankle injury that required offseason surgery and ultimately a shift to second base. The ankle clean up and position switch seemed to have paid off as Polanco had a career season in 2021. Overall he finished the season with a .269 AVG and an OPS of .826. Oh, and 33 bombs + 98 RBI. That's good for a WAR of 4.8 according to baseballrefrence. One would think now would be a poor time for the Twins to move Jorge Polanco in a trade. The stacked free agent class includes Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Javier Baez. Teams looking for a shortstop or second basemen will have plenty of options to chose from. But at what cost? Carlos Correa and Corey Seager are 1A and 1B in the class. Both are expected to receive contracts upwards of 260 million. Trevor Story had a down year offensively, but still grades out as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. He also is only 28 and teams will convince themselves he returns to form at the plate... 150-175 million sound right? Marcus Semien's fantastic 2021 campaign probably netted him a deal north of 115 million, as he was a top 5 hitter in baseball for much of the season. Javier Baez is a complete toss up for me. He is incredibly streaky at the plate, but got hot during his stint with the Mets and switched his approach at the plate. His ability to move around the diamond defensively and play a solid shortstop, second, and third is still a huge asset. You can't deny the flair and energy he brings to a team as well, star power means tickets... I'd guess a team buys in and pays close to 100 million. While there are plenty of options teams can go on the open market, none will sign cheap. Aside from potentially Baez, you aren't bringing any of those players in for less than 100 mil, at the minimum. Fortunately, for the teams hesitant to commit that type of money, there is another option. Jorge Polanco **Before I'm slandered below for suggesting the Twins should trade their 2021 MVP, consider the facts.** Contract - Jorge Polanco, currently 27, is signed through 2025 at what is essentially a 4 year 35.5 million dollar contract. When you stack that up against what the market is going to command for the available options, that deal is an absolute bargain. Internal Replacements - Second Base is really a position of strength for the Twins. Luis Arraez, still only 24 and under team control until 2026, has a career .313 AVG and .374 OBP over 275 games .. Yes, you are missing out on the power, but baseballreference had his 2021 WAR at 3.4, so by no means is it a massive downgrade. He isn't arb. eligible until 2023 as well.. Nick Gordon or the crown jewel in the Berrios deal, Austin Martin, could also be guys that could step into the position at some point next year. State of The Organization - The Twins need to look at this an opportunity to try and expedite the rebuilding process. Reality is 2022 is going to be a lost year, regardless of whether Polanco is on the roster or not. Is 2023 the year? Who knows, a lot will need to go right for the Twins between now and then .. But at that point you've only lost value on a player that will have 2 years remaining on his steal of a contract. If you are hesitant to put Polanco in the same tier as the players in this upcoming FA class, Since 2019, here's where Polanco stacks up against the top middle infielders. That's a 3 year sample size of productivity that puts him square in the discussion offensively as a top tier middle infielder. Yes I am aware that some players on the list were injured, but that's apart of the game. Polanco was too. Who might be interested? The best fit for Polanco would be an organization that is entering their window to compete for a championship. Given how cheap his contract is, teams would have the ability to sign free agent starting pitching, which typically works out better, than say giving a position player like Javy Baez a 5 year / 100 million dollar deal. That model seems to have paid off for the Astros as well as the Dodgers to some extent. What teams fit that bill? I highly doubt an organization will trade for Polanco with intentions of playing him at short. So i'll highlight just teams with a second base need, There's a few, here are my favorite options. The Mariners, who received a 0.3 WAR from the second base position this past year, would be a great trade partner for the Twins. They don't really have a solidified plan at 2nd and on the prospect side it's slim. Ranked with Baseball Americas top farm system, they have plenty of intriguing pitching prospects to deal from. Emerson Hancock, Matt Brash, George Kirby, and Brandon Williamson all look to be be starters long-term.. (I believe Brash will be the best) .... What about Noelvi Marte? one can dream. Miami has reportedly been getting pressure from ownership to win now and could be a possibility. This would mean they are comfortable moving Jazz Chisholm from 2nd to Short .. If they are, the Marlins hands down have the most pitching prospect depth to deal from in all of baseball. Max Meyer, Edward Cabrera, Eury Perez, and Jack Eder (though recovering from TJ) all could be in play ... (I'll take Perez of the 4 please). If the Blue Jays prioritize Robbie Ray over Marcus Semien, count them in as a Polanco fit. Toronto is right in their go for it window and may lean toward having a proven veteran to replace the production rather than banking on a prospect. A package of Orlevis Martinez/Jordan Gorshans and Nate Pearson doesn't sound all too bad. __ The Twins have a lot of work to do if they wanna get on back on track in the coming years.. This is all speculation, though I think it certainly is a route the Twins have to at least explore this winter. Regardless, of what you want the Twins to do with Polanco, there is no denying he would bring back a haul. That might be the best thing for the Twins sustaining long-term success. *Also, don't check Baseballtradevalues.com for the prospects I mentioned. It rarely is correct, as most of us learned with the deals that occurred at the deadline.