kab21

Ricky gave up HR's at his career rate as a Twin so it wasn't merely a one season up and one season down issue. There is no measurement of actual results that says Ricky performed like a #4 for the Twins. He might have been unlucky (for all 3 Twins seasons and almost all of his 9 full MLB seasons) but his actual performance was dreadfully awful.

the baseball world has changed since then. Right now the Twins are burning up arbitration years (or pre arb years) of this young core with a good chance that a few of them leave in FA just as the team is getting established. In addition there are now 5 playoff teams instead of just 2 from each league and if you have a >.500 team then you make moves to win now (not necessarily selling the entire farm for mediocre vets). Waiting until the perfect time to make a big move was exactly what doomed the good but not great Twins teams of the 2000's.

It was really hard to join the modern world and become a 'one spacer' but it is possible. The reason of course was one of the last times that this issue came up on the forum. However it isn't an optional habit. It is exactly what the word habit means. It is automatic and if your job still requires two spaces then you better stick with two spaces. The 40 countdown has already started here...

Teague is the least of the problems on the Wolves. He is doing almost exactly what he is being paid to do. He isn't perfect but I am quite satisfied with him. #1 issue - Wiggins - This is becoming a disaster. He needs to figure out how to be a wingman to Butler's alpha role. He has incredible talent but he also has no clue what to do right now. #2 issue - Dieng - they gave him a very big extension but then decided not to play him. This makes no sense at all. I think he is still very deserving of the extension and worth it but not if he only plays 12-15 min/game. His production per 36 minutes is actually slightly better this season but he is getting 1/2 of the minutes. Note - I have always been a Bjelica fan and he is cutting into Dieng's minutes the most. 44% from 3 this season

The Twins were bad at defense but that doesn't account for the following numbers. 2014 ERA = 5.38 and xFIP = 3.97 2015 ERA = 6.75 and xFIP = 4.01 2016 ERA = 5.13 and xFIP = 4.47 (this one is within the realm of variation but 4.47 is still pretty bad) When you combine this with his nearly 2000 innings of pitching that have a 0.60 split between xFIP and ERA then it is pretty apparent that he isn't as good as his advanced stats say. And he was one of the worst starters on Twins teams that had many bad pitchers during 2014-2016. All of those pitchers had the same defense behind them. Not so fun facts about Nolasco. In his 9 full seasons his 3rd best ERA is 4.42 but yet he had 6 seasons with a 4.00 or lower xFIP. The results have never been there for Ricky. He has consistently been a bad pitcher.

Nolasco underperformed his FIP/xFIP and any other advanced stat for many years with multiple teams. Some pitchers just underperform regardless of the factors that you state. Nolasco should have been a very good pitcher over his entire career (3.94 xFIP) but the reality is that he was okay with the Marlins and awful after leaving them despite good peripherals. This means though that you could compare virtually any good #3 level pitcher to him and make the same type of comparison as you have done with Cobb.

You take Arrieta if you think last year's stats are a blip and he will 'regress' back to a midpoint between last year and his career norms. You take Cobb/Lynn if you think last year's stats are a blip (due to TJ) and that their advanced stats will support last year's ERA stats. Arrieta's velocity drop and everything else really scares me. Even if he was available at 3/72, I think I would pass. Cobb's swstr% is ridiculously low and gives me some significant concern about his K's rising. Lance Lynn is the most promising imo but you are banking on him continuing to defy the ERA vs FIP gods for a lengthy contract. This is a difficult bet to take if it is a >4/60M contract.

Trading a lot for Archer might not be ideal but the Twins rotation right now is AWFUL. At this point a not ideal move is going to have to be made otherwise the Twins will have wasted a year (2018) of an otherwise promising young team. I am not convinced that the other possible moves (like Lynn or Cobb) improve the rotation enough to have any postseason (beyond a one game playoff) illusions. I would do Kepler, Gordon and Romero for Archer and Span in a heartbeat. Gordon is a position of depth. Kepler has possible replacement even if he has more potential. Romero can only hope to be as good as Archer. Span isn't nearly as bad as people think he is and would be a fine RF filler for a year. If they can make a deal without including Lewis then I am interested.

I think you are putting a little too much emphasis on WAR when there are other factors (like a positional change) and SSS of defensive statistics (notice the variation in two measurement systems). He is almost certainly not as bad of a player as you claim.

lol 14 pts on 50% shooting and 15 assists with 1 turnover He isn't perfect but your hate on him is tiring. This is the Rubio situation all over again. Derrick Rose's only place on this team is firmly behind Jones and Crawford and not taking one minute from them. The Wolves have had problems with depth though whenever one player in the rotation is injured so I wouldn't be totally against Rose. The problem is that he will be brought in to play. Not a fan of that.

He was worth 1.2 WAR (fangraphs) last season. The same as Kepler. He is now bad as a CF but he wouldn't be a CF'er in MN. It is tough to project how his defense would play in RF or LF since it is an easier position to field but also less valuable. Anyway you are far overstating the necessity to release him if he was included in a trade.

Reality is that they aren't signing two of the key FA pitchers. They are signing one of the key FA pitchers and one from the bargain area (<30M contract). I will take one key FA pitcher and pass on throwing some money at a maybe okay pitcher. But hey if they are really going to open things up and spend 30-40M/yr on pitching then I agree with you.

Not really. This is actually the year that the Twins have prospects in AAA with some real potential and the reality is that any 10-30M signing probably isn't much better than Gibson or Mejia. Take care of the front of the rotation problem. Not saying that I am against adding two pitchers like Archer/Darvish but one might be more than we can hope for.

There is no Kepler for Odorizzi trade that I make. Go for Archer or keep him.

Pretty fair article for Mejia but I think it is time that we quit saying that Nunez was outstandingly lucky in the first half of 2016. Nunez has been a very good hitter for the last 3 years. I still make that trade every time because the Twins were in rebuild mode and Nunez wasn't part of the future.

Empirical evidence still requires a significant sample size. Darvish is flat out the better pitcher and he would be successful more often than the other two.

Ugh... This is the exact definition of a small sample size argument. I would take Yu 10 out of 10 times in a playoff game. I don't think the Twins have guys that will definitely perform as well as Cobb or Lynn next season. They have guys that might completely flop in their first call up to the majors or they might have several prospects that cycle through the 4th/5th spots before finding a solid pitchers. I am willing to take the cycling through promising 4th/5th starters if the Twins add Darvish (or an Archer level trade) at the top of the rotation though.

ERA+ is meaningless in small sample sizes. 100ish innings And just to be sure that this is stressed. I liked what I saw from Mejia last year. But pretty big ifs remain. I think he should certainly be given every opportunity to start and in every scenario (short of trading for Archer and signing Darvish) he is in my opening day rotation.

He is a big if because he had a 4 BB/9, a 5.03 xFIP and a averaged <5IP/GS. I liked what I saw but he might flop next year. We have been fooled by strong rookie performances before and considered them a lock to repeat the next year with very little plan B. On the bright side there are several very good prospects in AAA this year that could step up.

That is very likely true and why Archer can't be the only option to upgrade the rotation. I am not against trading prospects but I am hesitant to trade Lewis (much less significantly more) when a comparable (and possibly better but slightly older) option can be acquired just by spending money.

Darvish had the 12th highest K/9 last year and the 13th highest swstr% last year. It sounds like he is exactly what you want.

I am totally about Archer Are you willing to trade Lewis, Gonsalves and a high upside low level player (possibly more)? Tampa will expect to get the moon back Archer for the very reasons that you want him. They might want more. The Twins absolutely have to make a move now. So far your options put forth in this thread are use prospects and build around them. I disagree because that will burn up years that could have been competitive. Your other option is to trade many prospects for a highly sought after starter. I would love for this to happen but you haven't left yourself a good plan B.

Signing Darvish doesn't block Mejia or Gonsalves from stepping up. Signing Cobb and Lynn actually does since they occupy two rotation spots. I absolutely go for quality instead of quantity. The Twins have MANY interesting AA/AAA arms to give a shot next year. I don't have high hopes for any of them immediately but there is a lot of talent to fill the back end of the rotation. I can actually conceive the Twins having a solid rotation top to bottom. But I want Darvish/Berrios at the top (Ervin is alright and steady). This gives you a pretty good playoff rotation.

At some point you have to spend money. What signs of slipping do you see? The swstr%, velocity and K rates are all great. Or do you mean ERA...

I will take both personally. I have hopes for Berrios. Romero has the upside but he is very raw and has some significant injury concerns. I am uncertain if he will last more than a full season or two as a starter. Of course, all aces start as prospects but not all prospects have the upside of an ace. Some come out of nowhere and surprise but the Twins mostly have MOR types in the system. You are going to be waiting a long time to put a strong playoff caliber rotation with the Twins system. And that is a problem imo.