kab21

The angst over this deal is baffling. Spending bigger money in FA is one of the most foolish places to spend money in an already risky place (FA). Rodney (annoys me greatly) isn't great but the Twins depth that is solid in their bullpen instead of adding one great arm. Save that money (or prospects) for starting pitching additions. Be angry when they bring in the Fernando Rodney of SP to fix the rotation. Complaints about the Pineda deal are equally baffling. For years we have complained about the Twins not making low risk/high reward moves like this. And for ignoring K's. This move wasn't made for this year but rather for the future and it affects this year minimally. Complaints about Rule V are the most baffling. As are complaints that the the Rule V pick will be mismanaged. Complain about the roster management. I disagree with the previous headline of 'crushing it' but the FO has added minor league pitching depth, a very good prospect and hasn't hamstrung the future with any players that start out mediocre (like Chatwood). They need their marquee move (SP) to be a great (or at least very good) to be crushing it.

You completely missed the point. It isn't pointless to participate in Rule V. It is pointless for Internet GMs to act like losing Burdi/Bard or a 25 man roster spot are awful moves. I think we (the Internet GMs) can form somewhat valid opinions on MLB players that we have actually seen play and have comparable stats for but we really don't have any idea on the real potential of Burdi/Bard/Kinley/Haley/Reed/Melotakis/Chargois/etc... It is okay to have an opinion but to act like some BIG MISTAKE has been made is laughable. Also participating in Rule V and poor roster management (keeping Rule V guys too long) are two completely different issues.

I don't have any problems with this. He was reasonably successful last year and it is a short term deal for modest money. Overall I am not a fan of spending big money in the bullpen or long contracts. Too much volatility but this should add a decent (but not great) arm into the 7th/8th/9th inning and I don't even care which role he takes. Who the actual closer is is overrated anyway.

I don't have any problems with this. He was reasonably successful last year and it is a short term deal for modest money.

This doesn't make any sense. Participating in Rule V is worthwhile even if the payoff isn't huge. Second guessing the draft and who was lost to the n-th degree is kind of pointless. Kinley seems like the RH version of Turley. If things click then he could be a solid bullpen option. If things don't click then they burned an offseason 40 man roster spot on him and 50K. Not a huge loss.

Much ado about (nearly) nothing I am not very enamored about Kinley but it is Rule V people. If Rule V works out then you get a Pressly type. That's alright...

It is a tremendous advantage if these borderline guys can pass through waivers. If the Twins added Bard (for example) and later needed that 40 man spot for a signing or trade then they have to expose him to waivers and potentially lose him that way. A team claiming him off of waivers only has to keep him on the 40 man roster instead of keeping him on the 25 man roster like a Rule V draftee. Hopefully I got this mostly right. There is some terminology that gets mixed up like waivers, DFA and outright. If Bard sneaks through the Rule V then the Twins don't need to expose him to waivers since he was never on the 40. Huge advantage for the team. The Twins leaving 4 spots open (2 filled now) indicates a high likelihood that the FO will be active this offseason.

I think the significant factor in this is that this special election has really polarized a lot of swing/independent/center voters (nationwide) against the GOP for their continued support of this nonsense. Actually I have no data on that but that is my feeling and my hope at least.

I don't really see Ervin and Pineda related at all. Picking up Ervin's option will most likely be based on his 2018 performance. Pineda is there either way and provides good depth in the rotation that might actually be a strength in 2019. The Twins definitely need to make a big addition this offseason but combined with that mystery man, Berrios, Ervin?, Pineda and the hopeful emergence of a prospect the team might actually have a competitive rotation. I continue to like the outside the box thinking that the FO has been doing. In other seasons we looked at other teams making these moves and thought good risk/reward but didn't see the same moves being made.

The Wolves are 3-1 against bad teams which is alright but they haven't looked great winning those 3 though. Butler has found his groove right now. He is avg'ing 25/6/6/2/0.5 in the 5 December games on 50% shooting. He is also averaging 40+ minutes/game...

But it is easier to ignore the statisticians and in depth analysis that has been done on a major site like fangraphs. With that being said - A team should target exceeding the market value when signing FA's. And the other big thing is that teams should try not to pay market value for 1+ WAR players (like Chatwood or Gibson) since you can find those guys on the cheap (like Gibson). I think fangraphs in the past has said that X/WAR doesn't account for the increasing value of elite players since they only occupy one roster spot. Meaning that two 3 WAR players don't equal a single 6 WAR player. Addendum #2 - I also find the 8M/WAR a little high but it doesn't really change anything if you change the number to 6M/WAR.

Making the one game playoff is nothing like a $100 pot. Trading (folding) some non-essential impending free agents was the smart move.

Has the 'can't combine 2017 and 2018 bonus pool money' been confirmed in print somewhere. This seems a bit off. But congrats to the FO for landing some more advanced prospects than a 16 yr old. These are all little moves but the FO has been very adept so far at adding talent. A little here and a little there adds up.

I mention this every time that someone mentions signing Santana or Martinez. We have no idea how healthy Sano is or how much 3B they plan on playing him next year. If the Twins sign a bat then I think that bat almost has to be able to play 3B. 1B/DH only types are out with Grossman/Vargas/Mauer/Sano/Garver looking to be on the roster. OF really isn't necessary although some have said the Twins need a veteran backup OF. Grossman and Granite have that covered imo. 3B is a concern though if Sano plays <1/2 of the games there. I like Escobar a lot but now he isn't available at other positions. Todd Frazier is my pick once pitching is sorted and if there is available salary room.

This is getting old. I haven't said that. I have said that Chatwood isn't a good pitcher and definitely not one that I spend 3/38 on. This is basically the first major pitching move (Otani is the 2nd) that has occurred this offseason. You can't honestly tell me that Chatwood was your #1 option this offseason and now the Twins will have to change plans because he is off the board.

Being restricted in the same way is not the same as operating the same way. My biggest encouragement with the new FO is that they attempting to find every little advantage that they can instead of walking the line. The new FO was very creative going underslot/overslot to get players that they wanted and maximize the draft. They were creative and turned Ynoa and 4M into two better prospects. They traded Kintzler for a prospect and int'l cap money. They have a lot of surplus int'l cap money due to some sort of fiasco (I am suspicious of something...) and they turned it into two legit prospects that they didn't even have to spend money on. These moves don't even need to work out and in fact none of them have yet. We can see however that they aren't restrained to thinking inside a box.

1 WAR is 8M/yr or so. He is getting 12.67M/yr. Do you know who else has been worth 1+ WAR/yr? Gibson I wouldn't even dream of considering a multi-year contract for someone like Gibson. Especially as the first signing of the offseason. At least see if something better happens first instead of guaranteeing yourself mediocrity with a decent sized chunk of the available dollars.

The most encouraging thing that I have seen is the creativity that they have displayed in the draft, the midseason trades and the recent int'l cap trades. They have for the most part really maximized the relatively little value that they had (#1 pick excluded) and have ended up with quite a top 15-30ish prospects in the end. Now it is possible to be to creative in big trades but I think overall this bodes well for the future.

Yes, this isn't the end of accusations for either side. And many of these accusations will have some level of merit (until Project Veritas gets involved anyway). Alabama republicans will continue to back Moore. Core GOP voters continue to back he GOP. But the independent and undecided voters all over the country are noticing. That is where elections are won and lost. Alabama will most likely retain their senate seat but the GOP will have burned the last shred of credibility that they had left. It is hard to believe that they have any left at all but here we are.

Looks like the democrats have taken the step (Franken resigning?) they need to so that they can really attack the 'family values' GOP in the next elections. It is utterly inconceivable that the GOP continues to (strongly) back Moore in Alabama and I believe that this choice will really bite them in the future. This is going to be a really ugly 6-12 months but hopefully Dave is right and this is a turning point and changes really happen. I think he is.

I continue to look elsewhere or sign nobody if the only other option is Chatwood on a 3/38 contract. I simply do not give this level of player 3/38. Especially as one of the first pitchers of the offseason to sign.

No, but people have specifically mentioned subtracting him. The point remains though. Chatwood has awful advanced stats. But perhaps Chatwood's advanced stats look awesome when broken down to away games during the day with catchers wearing sunglasses and facing American born hitters that were signed out of HS.

It is almost like you ignored advanced away stats. 6 K/9 - 4 BB/9 - 4.20 FIP - 4.40 xFIP Chatwood is a guy that you take a flyer on instead of giving a 3 year contract in the hopes that he can continue to beat his advanced stats for away games. Exactly the type of contract that should be avoided imo. I am rather lukewarm on Gibson for next year but I will take him 10/10 times on a cheap one year deal. Or I will take Ervin 100/100 times instead of dumping him for alright but not good prospects because he might fall off due to age next season. And there is a large thread (and new ones every year) that want Ervin traded because his numbers are unsustainable.

That likely deals with arbitration eligible players that work out contracts between the end of the season and the listed January 10th. Mauer will be a FA next year during that timeframe.

One part of me says that this is the Twins being cheap. They traded away the ability to spend money on prospects for alright but not very good prospects (just outside the top 20). Another part of me says that at least they were able to get something from the Marte signing fiasco. It was possible that they couldn't even use this money. Both prospects add some decent depth to the system but aren't particularly great. Not exciting but alright moves.