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While I'm mostly sympathetic with Nick's premise here (I'm a big believer of this organization's ability to coax better performance - particularly velocity - from their pitchers), this won't be as easy as it was 2 years ago. Cole/Odorizzi were acquired as cheap as they were because it wasn't really a thing to expect giant leaps in performance. Now it is. If, for example, Jon Gray was put on the trading block, I bet 20 teams would line up to try to attain him. And this change in expectation is reflected by the recent trade deadline. The price that SELLING teams were asking certainly seemed to indicate that they were setting a price based more on potential rather than past or recent performance. No one wants to sell a pitcher and watch them take a leap for another team, but it certainly makes it more palatable if they got a great return that priced in the leap to a certain degree.

Maybe overall results are debatable, but I don't think there is any question that Wes Johnson (or someone in the organization) has worked wonders when it comes to adding a tick or two to velocity. 2018 to 2019 Fastball velocity increases: Odorizzi +1.8 Perez +1.4 Gibson +0.3 Berrios -0.4 Romero +1.6 May +1.5 Rogers +1.4 Duffey +1.0 Magill +0.6

Baseball savant uses the statcast data that tracks player movement on the field. Rosario is not an above-average runner - his sprint speed as tracked by their system is below average for left fielders. Additionally, their catch probability is based on batted ball profile - the time the ball is in the air and the distance the fielder needs to run. So positioning and the presence of other defenders doesn't matter as much as with other defensive rating systems.

Is the waiver claim order right now based on league right now? So like a player has to go through the AL before being exposed to NL teams? I can never remember the waiver order rules...

I agree with your reasoning here, but I think Wisler is worth the exception here. He checks a lot of the boxes that I look for breakout candidates: - pedigree (former top-50ish prospect) - age (a lot of pitchers take leaps in their late 20s) - current stuff (he has a legit swing-and-miss slider) - past organizational history (I don't consider Sea, Atl, Cin, SD as elite pitcher development organizations. It would be different if he was coming from Hou/NYY/LAD) - weakness fits the Twins developmental strength (he needs a better fastball. The Twins seem to be able to get more velocity out of their pitchers) Don't get me wrong, I'm not thinking he will be a stud. If pressed, I would guess that his most likely outcome is that he is waived before the end of spring training. But I like the upside, and I'm cautiously optimistic.

I'd chalk it up to Houston's superior PITCHER evaluation. Detroit and Pittsburgh didn't get elite prospects because no one was expecting Verlander or Cole to be top-5 pitchers in baseball over the new two seasons. If Verlander and Cole were 4 ERA, 3 WAR pitchers the past two seasons, would anyone be complaining that the Tigers or Pittsburgh didn't get enough?

I think this is really important point to keep in mind. The Astros in particular did not go out an trade for two of the best pitchers in baseball when they acquired the 2017 Verlander and Cole. They traded for good pitchers that they were able to transform into two of the best pitchers in baseball. If the goal is to find a pitcher that currently slots ahead of Berrios/Odorizzi, it is extremely unlikely that the Twins will be able to acquire one - pitchers of that current quality are almost all already on contending teams and I don't see them outbidding everyone for Cole. So I think the goal is to find a pitcher or pitchers of current lesser quality but with upside, with the expectation that this pitcher development staff will be able to help them make a leap. I think these 4 pitchers all fit that criteria considering their age, their current track records, and the track records of their current organizations.

I'm not exactly sure where it should fit into this series, but I think the single most important event for this Astros dynasty was Brady Aiken's decision to not sign. If Aiken signs, they don't have the opportunity to draft Alex Bregman, and they likely are not able to draft Daz Cameron either as an extreme overslot pick later in the draft. Bregman has been a top-5 player in baseball the past three seasons. Without him, the Astros would still be a very good team, but I don't think they would be held up as the best franchise in baseball.

He also get pulled out of the playoff game in 2017 after colliding with the wall early in the game. I don't know if that would have led to a IL stint had the Twins won that game, but it should be noted.

Probably worth pointing out that the Twins have the easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball. They have 61 games left, and 36 are against KC/CWS/DET/MIA. Cleveland, on the other hand, only has 24 games against those same opponents. And they have a brutal stretch upcoming. They have 4 games against KC this weekend, then a 20 game stretch that goes HOU/LAA/TEX/MIN/BOS/NYY.

Had some time this afternoon to put together a quick top-20 list. Probably didn't think this through enough, but here goes: 1. Lewis 2. Kirilloff 3. Rortvedt 4. Balazovic 5. Graterol 6. Larnach 7. Thorpe 8. Jeffers 9. Arraez 10. Cavaco 11. Rooker 12. Duran 13. Gordon 14. Marciel 15. Javier 16. Alcala 17. Baddoo 18. Enlow 19. Wade 20. Miranda

Arraez is such a tough player to try to project right now because his initial performance has been so crazy. The .457 BABIP, the 3:1 K:BB ratio, leading the league in LD% and opposite-field %, 2nd lowest pull %. He is the 6th biggest overachiever when comparing his actual results to his expected results from his statcast exit velocity and launch angle information. This is not completely unlike Jake Cave last year, who was also a pretty extreme outlier in many batted-ball statistics.

I'm not trying to be that judgmental of the Twins coaching staff. I think a player's developmental progression is highly path dependent, and that the dynamics of when/how coaches work with a player aren't necessarily recreate-able. I don't blame the Twins for every single played that has found success in other organizations. Sure, I think you can make judgments of the organization's ability based on the broad pattern of players, but certainly not on any one specific player. Using Pressly as an example, it is fairly well known that the Astros came to him after the trade and presented data for how to change his pitch mix. The Twins could have presented the exact same information, but Pressly has a much longer track record with the Twins organization, and there might not be the same buy-in, especially since he was already pitching as well as he ever had in his career. The Astros, by virtue of being a fresh voice and having explicitly sought Pressly out, could approach these changes in a very different way than the Twins could. And yes, Pressly was pitching well prior to the trade, but you need to put a lot of weight on his last 10 appearances with the Twins if you think you could predict his Astros level of success based on his Twins performance. Now, don't get me wrong, I think he was a solid bet to be above-average going forward; I did not predict "top 5 reliever in baseball". As an interesting juxtaposition, the Pirates acquired Keone Kela at the same deadline. While not a perfect analogy to Pressly, he was also a young, very good reliever with team control remaining. He is currently on the 60-day IL with a shoulder issue. Teams only have so much control over preventing injuries. Are we having this conversation if Pressly was the one that ended up injured? Reliever performance is historically quite volatile, I don't hold it against the Twins FO that they thought it was a sell-high moment for Pressly. Going back to the small sample size, what is everyone's prediction for Duffey going forward? His last ten appearances compared to Pressly's prior to the trade: Pressly: 10.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 33.3 K%, 7.1 BB%, 1.10 WHIP Duffey: 13.0 IP, 0.69 ERA, 32.1 K%, 7.1 BB%, 1.08 WHIP I've been extremely optimistic about Duffey for weeks now, but I'm not ready to anoint him a top-10 relief pitcher going forward. But at least superficially, there are a lot of similarities between Duffey this year and Pressly's 2018.

Yeah, I think it is much more likely that the FO doubted that Pressly would become a top-10 reliever going forward. And that is a problem with the hindsight argument - there is no guarrantee that the Twins would have been able to unlock Pressly's full potential in the same way that the Astros did.

I don't disagree with anything you said. Sano is a tough guy to value. I was trying to frame it in terms similar to the Machado trade last year (also a rental). The Machado deal was headlined by a 50 FV, back-of-the-top-100-list player in Diaz. Someone not unlike Larnach. Now, I personally think Sano > Larnach/Diaz or someone of that ilk, even if he only has 2 years of team control left. And the fact that Sano can play 1B (which the Nationals need) would allow them to still make a big run at resigning Rendon this offseason. It would also help the Nationals try to contend next year, whereas a prospect might not play right away. But now that I think about it more, my suggestion is obviously undervaluing Doolittle. Sano+Duran is probably close enough for just Rendon, but the Nats would need another really good piece to include Doolittle.

Speaking of the Nationals... Anthony Rendon + Sean Doolittle for Sano + Duran. Who says no?

Piggy-backing on this, the Twins certainly aren't in the best prospect position among contenders (and prospective deadline buyers). While no other team could really match the Lewis-Kiriloff combo coming into the season, once you broaden things to look at the top-50-to-75 prospects, other teams really shine. The Braves have 6-8 guys in that range, as do the Rays. Dodgers and Astros each have 4ish. And the Twins players in this range (other than Larnach) haven't really excelled this season for various reasons. I think the Twins biggest problem heading into the trade deadline is this: - generally speaking, most of the best players traded every year are either elite rental players or good players with another year or two of team control. - these kind of players general don't require a "blue-chip" prospect to acquire, but more generally a package headlined by a prospect in the back-half of top-100 lists. - due to injury/ineffectiveness, this is the area where the Twins have Larnach and not much else. Graterol is injured, Javier isn't playing well. - Larnach, while a good player and prospect, is probably not as valuable as his ranking would indicate. He is a bat-first corner outfielder who is still in high-A. Not every team is going to be excited about that profile. As a hypothetical, Ken Giles will probably be traded, and I could see him fetching a top-100 prospect. He is the type of player that the Twins would probably be willing to give up Larnach to acquire, but loath to include Kirilloff or Lewis. However, I'm not sure that the Twins could WIN a trade sweepstakes with a deal centered around Larnach. Other teams could easily include equivalently talented players at positions with more value and upside, or in closer proximity to the majors.

You are kind of moving goal posts here. Your quote in the article was If you look at last year's trade deadline, how many relievers actually qualify for that criteria? Jake Diekman? Nope Brandon Kintzler? Nope Brad Ziegler? Nope Keone Kela? Yes? Currently demoted to AAA. Roberto Osuna? Yes, though dumped by the Blue Jays because of domestic abuse suspension Brad Brach? Nope Ryan Pressly? Yes Sam Tuivailala? Nope Joakim Soria? Nope Seungwhan Oh? Nope Nathan Eovaldi? Pending FA Matt Andriese? Nope Zach Britton? Pending FA Jeurys Familia? Pending FA Brad Hand? Yes? Required a top 50-to-100 prospect to acquire. So, depending on how stringent we take your criteria, there might be 1-5 relievers available, which I wouldn't exactly describe as "no shortage" - especially when almost every single playoff contender is looking for bullpen help. We can kind of assume that the Rays, Astros and Yankees are pretty set. But that leaves the Red Sox, Cardinals, Cubs, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, and Dodgers to compete with the Twins.

I absolutely think this is a sell-high moment for Cave. His path to playing time with the big league team seems long. Honestly, I would trade him for prospects right now, kind of like what the Yankees did with him last year.

I hope all of Wes Johnson's time is spent trying to make the big league pitchers better and keep them healthy.

Sure, but there are ways for competitive teams to restock the pitching pipeline through trades. For example, the Yankees have been extremely good at clearing out 40-man and 25-man roster crunches by trading for young, upside pitchers and betting on their player development staff to make the necessary improvements. Case in point, acquiring Luis Gil from the Twins for Jake Cave. Over the next few years, there are going to be multiple decent, young position players coming up the Twins system that they likely just won't have the roster space for. Anyway, I'm on team "don't invest a lot of draft capital on pitchers" for many, many different reasons. So I'm mostly okay with this draft so far.

While not exactly a full substitute, it is worth factoring the pitching talent that was brought in at the trade deadline last year. According to Fangraphs FV rankings at the deadline, Duran, Rijo, Alcala, and Smeltzer all would have slid into the top 120 players in this draft. So it is kind of like they spent a 2nd, two 3rds and a 4th round pick on pitchers... last year at the trade deadline.

Does anyone know if the Twins are expected to be in position to offer 7 figures to anyone today?

So Duran for Tanner Roark, who is a FA after this season. Who says no?

As a rough approximation, Fangraph has rated Jhoan Duran (45FV) similar to draft prospects in the 13 - 43 range. And I think Duran is equal to a pending free-agent late inning reliever or mid-rotation starter. Certainly in the ballpark. So I think you are valuing it about right.