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LastOnePicked

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Everything posted by LastOnePicked

  1. LastOnePicked
    I feel like we've lost the plot somewhere here. First of all, reactions to everything are varied. Some are emotional, and some aren't. Some are measured and some are reactive. Some are curious and some are accusatory. This is true whether we're talking about the Marlins trade or a spy balloon. But if an organization decides it's afraid of its constituents or its customers, then that's on them, not on the constituents or customers. Jon Stewart recently talked about being a comedian, and he expressed his belief that audiences don't owe a comic anything. Comics dish out the world as they see it, audiences react, and comics just have to be better, smarter and quicker. Just please don't jump onstage and slap us, he added. Are you saying the Twins are afraid of fan backlash to more transparent assessments of their players' injuries? To more clear-eyed evaluations of their failures? If so, tough cookies. Toughen up. Take your lumps. Learn and be better for it. No one expects the team to reveal "secrets" or competitive advantages, but it would be VERY refreshing to hear a representative of the organization say something along the lines of "2022 was an F-minus in terms of grades. We couldn't keep guys healthy, but we also couldn't seal the deal in late innings. We collapsed. We know many fans are mad about our style of play. We've lost a lot of trust over the last few years. We have to make changes, and winning a World Series is the only goal we care about from here until we make it or get fired trying." If they SAID that, and MEANT that, it would likely quiet a lot of the more vehement reactions they're so afriad of. Right now, they're generating some of the animosity with all the back-patting, corporate jargon and self-congratulatory nonsense.
  2. LastOnePicked
    😀 Hope ... now that's the ultimate mind trick that afflicts us Twins fans.
  3. LastOnePicked
    Great first blog post, Harrison. I'd call it impressively optimistic. Bless your heart, but prepare to look back in October with more than a few sighs. I don't think even two of these will come to fruition. Buxton's at a point now where all injuries are cumulative. Top teams passed on signing Correa for a reason. Kirilloff has already admitted that he's feeling pain again in his swing. Lewis is going to have to find his groove after two ACL surgeries. Durability is required to meet these goals, and that durability is probably out of reach. But here's hoping that the stars align.
  4. LastOnePicked
    This. Look, the Twins' biggest issues have absolutely nothing to do with the fans' collective mentality or what their harshest critics are "missing" in their thinking process. The Twins biggest issues are perpetually failing to field a fiercely competitive team. It's why some of us wanted to see a total organizational rebuild before watching them spend $150M on an injury-prone roster of players. I'd rather watch an emerging nucleus of promising, tough rookies gel over the next six years instead of having to say a prayer every time Mahle throws a fastball, Buxton makes a leap or Correa slides into second. 2022-23 made it pretty clear that it's time to move on and turn the page for this inept franchise. Maybe we should be spending more time analyzing what the FO and coaches are constantly getting wrong (in terms of philosophy and practice) than what the fans are missing in terms of perception. That's all. :)
  5. LastOnePicked
    "We, as fans, are not privy to the conversations behind closed doors between an owner and upper management of the team. Heck, others in baseball operations aren't made aware of every conversation. We can forget that." With respect, I just don't think this is the issue. At all. Most fans, if not all fans, are very aware that other conversations were happening behind closed doors. The issue that the most critical fans (myself included) have is that we see patterns of perception and behavior from this FO that don't seem well-aligned to success. One of those is an unrealistic vision of the team's readiness to compete. For example, for all of the hype last offseason after the lockout, the Twins remained a team that was putting too much weight on an injury-free Buxton, an untested rotation and a shaky bullpen. Correa was great to have, but Cleveland was better-built for success. Results proved that to be true. "Some people may be incompetent at their jobs and worthy of criticism, but that criticism should be based on what we can observe rather than the gaps our brains fill in. Remember that even if we don't see it, things are happening." We can debate all day long about the mentality of the fans, but the most observable facts are these: this is not an organization that develops pitching well, plays fundamentally-sound baseball, can either select healthy players or keep players healthy, or actually wins games when it counts. There is no other team in MLB without a playoff win in the last 19 years. There's really nothing else to argue about, is there? The team simply has to silence its critics and its doubters. Until then, at least consider listening to the skeptics. We've been watching this all unfold for a very long time.
  6. LastOnePicked
    "The Cleveland Guardians have the best MLB rotation in the division thanks to staff aces Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, as well as mid-rotation types such as Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. But what if one or more go down with an injury?" I have to admit, I am very tired of starting a season hoping that a competitor's aces get sidelined so that the Twins can squeak by with a division win. This article was a bitter reminder that Cleveland's pipeline just keeps on flowing, with we're still waiting for even a single #2 starter to be developed (or even signed) from this supposedly pitching-focused FO.
  7. LastOnePicked
    Gosh, that would be fun. And I enjoyed what you did here. It's a reminder that baseball is a game where very small things matter, accumulate, and make a very big difference over the long run. Just like life. I love baseball. And if your point was to give Kepler fewer at-bats and Pagan fewer innings, I agree. :)
  8. LastOnePicked
    Well I think I can. I rooted for Tim Laudner, and I don't remember him hitting above .190. Lots of ways to contribute, and these Twins could use some power.
  9. LastOnePicked
    This. Very much this. One of the greatest weaknesses of this team - the FO's inability to admit a mistake or to act swiftly to correct it - lives on. Pagan's first blown holds/saves of 2023 might set the tone for the year early in the clubhouse and in the stands. I still think that any FO committed to a winning culture wouldn't have kept him.
  10. LastOnePicked
    As I look back on 2022, the factors that stand out to me are the busted bullpen (with Pagan being the standout), Buxton's recurrent mid-season injury issues, the poor managing decisions (maybe Baldelli's worst year) and the vacuum left by Wes Johnson's surprise departure, which Pete Maki didn't seem to be able to fill. Sadly, none of those things have changed. So, to me, the biggest weaknesses for this club remain. There's still too much weight placed on likely-to-be-injured stars, and there aren't new voices in the dugout or the clubhouse to change a culture of losing.
  11. LastOnePicked
    Optimism is good. Depth is good. Many of the moves this offseason have been good. But this is still a team led by Rocco Baldelli, while Cleveland still has an elite manager/staff. Coaching and leadership remain the same here. There's an organizational theory that says "Systems are more likely to change people than people are likely to change systems." The Twins culture is injury, failure and wilting under pressure. Until that culture changes, I don't expect too much out of 2023. Hope, sure. Expect, no.
  12. LastOnePicked
    Yup, that's the spirit. OR ... I think Parker H. posted a year or so ago about high-stress, high-leverage situation performance drills that some teams were making a part of conditioning and training. Basically, coaches run through mock do-or-die skills scenarios and then check to see if the players seem mentally ready to handle these situations when they would arise in an actual game. Not sure if the Twins are doing these, but it doesn't seem like a bad idea. At the very least to run these in Spring Training, and in St. Paul.
  13. LastOnePicked
    For some reason, we never seem to look at the psychological aspects of player performance. They're very hard to pinpoint or quantify, I know, and they don't make for good analytics. But the issue with Pagan sure seems to be the yips. Did he perform better after the new breaking ball, or because he was relegated to low-leverage situations by the time he showed improvement? I am no expert, but when Pagan was getting shelled, it wasn't so much his pitch selection as location. He would serve up extra-base hits right down the heart of the plate. No MLB relief pitcher does that unless they're mentally distracted or rattled. In fact, I think the Twins as a team have the yips, and have had them for a few years. They seem to do okay in no-pressure situations. But in high-pressure situations, we seem to see a lot of bad a bats, a lot of bad pitch location and a lot of errors in the field. When the Twins play the Astros, Yankees or Dodgers, they play like they're afraid. This is a layman's take and could be ridiculous. But bringing back Pagan to ruin games for this club again in 2023 - unless rebuilding, or unless there's some clear strengthening of the mental aspect of his game - seems even more ridiculous.
  14. LastOnePicked
    Tell that to the Astros and the Rays. Of course, you blend established vets with rookies, but you need lots of great rookies first. But I'll stop on this, since I think this side conversation will derail the celebratory thread. Hats off to Arraez. I'll keep my thoughts about rebuilding for a later thread on 2023.
  15. LastOnePicked
    Good points, but if the Twins stink again (stinking being defined by a sub-.500 season) in 2023 and 2024, will Arraez really be that much of a draw? I mean, people like Arraez, but they LOVED La Tortuga. I think fans will always find a scrappy player to cheer here. People want to see the Twins win playoff games - that's what will sell tickets again. The best path to that outcome in my opinion is restocking the minors and going through a talent rebuild.
  16. LastOnePicked
    He, too, has some injury history and knee/hamstring troubles. By the time this team is close to contention again, he'll be 28-30. Not sure a rebuilding - not a rebuilt - team will really need him. He likely won't be a difference-maker here. But it's possible that the FO is not rebuilding in 2023, in which case you're right. Get every weapon you can in the lineup. It's not the path I want them to take, but I'd understand.
  17. LastOnePicked
    He's probably the fan's favorite player on this team at this point, so that might be a hard sell. On the other hand, it's hard to imagine his value will ever be higher than it is right now. I'm in a rebuild state of mind, so I say yes. You hope that Martin can step up his game in 2023 and beyond and attempt to fill the OBP gap left by Arraez, while adding speed to the lineup.
  18. LastOnePicked
    I had three waves of prediction: 1) Pre-Correa signing 2) Post-Correa signing and 3) Opening Day, Post-Rogers/Paddock Trade. I think I ultimately settled on the predictive line: "A lot of things changed, but their record will stay the same - 73-89." I was a lot closer than I wanted to be, and a lot closer than I thought I would be in May. By June, I thought I had let preseason pessimism sway me too far, and that I had ignored the promise in the pipeline and the overall impact of Correa. I should have remembered that pessimism can't sway a person too far with this team. Whether it's the late innings, the playoffs or even a mid-season series against a top team, it almost seems like the mission of this Twins team is to disappoint. But I also though Detroit was going to have a very competitive year and that Baddoo was on the cusp of being an all-star, so clearly I'm more Nostradummy than Nostradamus.
  19. LastOnePicked
    Hey, have optimism and keep the faith. Good for you. But the Twins are going to be losing a 5 WAR player in just a few weeks here. Can't quite see how they're "already better" than 2022. Pessimism can be a downer, sure, but the blind optimism around here can get a little tough to swallow, too. It's not your fault, and it's not our fault, The Twins need to learn how to silence critics and reward believers. Until then, skepticism is probably well warranted.
  20. LastOnePicked
    Honestly, I don't really want or expect them to spend money on free agents this offseason. I don't have even a single shred of hope for 2023, and I don't think they spend money all that wisely anyway. If we're stuck with this FO, here's what I want from them this offseason more than anything: 1) Cut ties with past-their-prime players who are clogging the roster. No more Bundys, Caves, Pagans or Archers. Trade Kepler. Decline the Sano option. Clean house and commit to a youth movement. DO NOT lose a single promising prospect in the Rule 5 Draft when it returns. 2) Find the best damn pitching coach on the market. Offer him Correa's opt-out contract savings from Year 2 if you have to. Clarify to this person that a full-season commitment is required. Get this person excited about shaping the next 1990s Atlanta Braves-style rotation. 3) Fire bench coach Jayce Tingler and hire someone who can counter Rocco's worse tendencies and accentuate his best ones. Tingler might be a great guy, but he's got the stink of two collapsed seasons all over him now. Goodbye. See if James Rowson is interested in a reunion. Offer him Correa's opt-out contract savings from Year 3. 4) Speaking of coaching, catch up with LaTroy Hawkins and Nelson Cruz. See if they're interested in being a part of the staff in the near future. 5) Revolutionize the training and fitness aspects of the organization. I don't even know what that would look like at this point. Detachable pitching arms? Stem cells mixed into the Gatorade? Vibrating barcaloungers in the dugout? Whatever it takes to boost stamina and reduce injuries. Use whatever you should have used for a Correa extended contract in Years 4-7. Make it happen. And finally, if I get nothing else, please let me have this. 6) Learn how to speak to actual Minnesotan human beings. No more press conferences with ridiculous corporate-speak. Learn how to see things and say things plainly. Admit failings. Promise to improve or die trying. Act like your careers here depend on sober assessments and actual results - because they should.
  21. LastOnePicked
    I'm hopeful these guys can feed off the internal competition. I hope they help each other elevate their game. It's clear that we need to find a top-shelf pitching coach this offseason to assist with the tough transition to the bigs.
  22. LastOnePicked
    It's almost comedic at this point. I checked in on the score at saw the Twins had taken a 2-0 lead in the first. I said to myself, "I'll bet this will be all the runs they get tonight - Sox will probably win 4-2 or 3-2." Sure enough.
  23. LastOnePicked
    Out of all the organizational failures over the last few years, it's maybe Rocco's performance the bothers me the most. He strikes me as entirely inept as a manager. His players never quite seem to have their heads in the game, and neither really does he. He screws up something as simple as mound visits and when he does decide to show emotion, as in the case of the blocked-plate review call vs. Toronto, he ends up screaming and cursing at the umpire who actually had made the call on the field in our favor. The Twins just do not rise up to meet late-inning, late-season or postseason challenges under his management. And rather than deal with issues head-on, he endlessly recycles excuses about "playing hard" and "things not going our way." He does not convey a sense of leadership. I've seen enough of him in this role. He's a decent human being, and seems like he'd be a great person to know. But he is a terrible MLB manager, in that if he doesn't have Nelson Cruz leading the clubhouse, even his regular-season teams look lost, shaken and beaten and the plate, on the mound and in the field. To answer your question, there's nothing he can do at this point - he is what he is. It is time to move on.
  24. LastOnePicked
    Excellent points. And it's not just that people don't want to go downtown, it's that they don't want to go downtown (if they don't live nearby), pay for parking/transit, tickets and food all to watch a totally gutless, lifeless team where you've got maybe a 20% chance of seeing your favorite player play baseball. Yes, roster management is important and yes, injuries have been tragic for this club, but if you're an innovative organization, you've got to learn how to pivot much more quickly. You've got to put an entertaining experience on the field. It's a vicious cycle now, but the Twins have to break it themselves. The fans aren't going to jump up and pick up the pieces anymore.
  25. LastOnePicked
    Sober, careful assessment of the main injury concerns for this club. And there are still issues for Polanco, Kepler, Jeffers, Arraez, Ober and Gray that aren't even addressed here. And the really big concern going forward? All of these injuries make the next IL stints more likely. After Dave St. Peter's comments about Jim Pohlad "overspending" the last few years, I think the writing is on the wall for this club. There will be no big free agents signed in the offseason. The club is about to embark on a payroll-slashing rebuild. The window of contention closed after 2020. And looking at all of these injury question marks on the roster, they probably should rebuild. This team needs a new core for 2025 and beyond, and they need to keep them healthy. 2023 will likely be used to rehabilitate current players and then trade them for whatever can be gotten in return.
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