stringer bell

Three most consequential plays: 3) Jefferson throw back to Cousins on 3rd and 1. 2) Darrisaw false start on 4th and 1. 1) Cousins check down on 4th and 8.

That aged well.

I’m going to say it. Advantage MN because they have adjusted far better than NY since halftime. I don’t think NY scores another TD.

Counterpunch time?

It really is about health with Kirilloff and Larnach. Both have been injured more than not for the last year and a half. There is opportunity at DH and first base for at bats for corner outfielders. I do agree that Larnach was and could be more than capable in either right or left field. A healthy Buxton could be spelled occasionally by Gordon without the need to carry Celestino on the active roster. Specifically regarding a Kepler trade--he is expendable because he is replaceable. Gallo is probably his (near) equal defensively and a healthy Kirilloff or Larnach could be expected to equal his offensive contribution of his last two years.

Agree that we’ve gotten off topic.

So, by your logic, all defensive stats during the "shift era" shouldn't count? The other two guys who played second more than ten times in 2022 had worse defensive runs saved and zone ratings than Arraez. Why would Arraez benefit so disproportionately compared to the league? Look, I get that he's not fast and never will have above average range. His arm is on the weak side, as well, but second base is an infield place for guys without off-the-charts range and arm strength. I'm probably as old as you and have watched a lot of baseball and my eye test says " acceptable" and yes, he's a better second baseman than Nick Gordon.

I don't think it's infinitely easier to play second on the left side of the infield and I don't think it is easy to play short right field when it comes to making throws. Do you have numbers about how often shifting occurred in the last four years? Honestly, it looks like cherry picking to me to claim "Arraez can't play second base" when he registered positive numbers there in three straight years. Perhaps he benefited from shifting, but you've shown me nothing to prove he'll become a black hole if he's at second.

So many questions. Why just choose one year? How much less shifting was there in 2019? How exactly does shifting impact numbers for a second baseman? Why does Arraez specifically benefit so much from this from shifting? Isn't 390 innings (Arraez' 2019 innings at second) a really small sample size? Arraez doesn't have great range, certainly, and his arm isn't particularly strong. Playing second base IMHO doesn't require the raw athleticism that being a shortstop does and Arraez has developed to be a capable defender IMHO. I don't know if he can be a 2B for 150 games, but I don't think his defense is off the charts bad, keeping him from being an option at second base.

(BBRef stats) Arraez' career defensive numbers at second base are neutral. Only in his rookie year was he below average. I do not understand how people can dismiss his ability to play second base.

I'm glad Enlow made it through the DFA process. The clock is ticking for him and he may already have gone from prospect to suspect, but there is a pretty good arm there.

Two more AAA catchers. I think the Twins have addressed the catching depth issue sufficiently. LaMarre provides a right handed hitting outfielder rated to have a good glove. I think it is okay to have him in AAA for depth, but the upside is limited obviously.

I disagree. After signing Correa, I don't think the Twins will spend on a free agent outfielder, even a right handed hitting one. If they could trade Kepler for a comparable right handed hitter, they might do that. Otherwise, as I've noted in other threads, they have three number one draft choices (all LH hitters) who could break out and become lineup fixtures in the outfield. Gordon, Kirilloff and Larnach all could make the idea of having a platoon in the outfield a moot point. In addition, by midseason both Royce Lewis and Austin Martin may be available to help the club as right handed hitting outfielders, both likely to be serviceable backups for Buxton in center. Last year in crunch time, Ryan Jeffers was injured. For the season, he OPSed over .900 against left handed pitching, so did Carlos Correa and Kyle Farmer. Having those three guys in the lineup most of the time against left handed pitching would make the need for an outfield lefty killer specialist much less urgent. I think the Twins most urgent need right now is to augment their pitching staff. They have a lot of left handed hitting corner outfielders and one or two could be sacrificed to get more pitching. If they reduce the glut of corner OFs already on the roster, maybe they could add a right handed hitting outfielder more capable than Kyle Garlick.

The best FA RH hitting outfielder is Adam Duvall, who was great in '21, injured and ineffective in '22. I would think he is looking for a multi-million dollar contract and full-time duty. I doubt the Twins will spend for that after adding $36M for Correa (and I mostly agree). The Twins just added a very effective bat against left handed pitching and will have two guys who OPSed over .900 against lefties (Farmer and Jeffers) who weren't around at crunch time last year. There are three left handed hitting outfielders in their mid-twenties who could break out and be lineup fixtures no matter who is throwing (Kirilloff, Larnach and Gordon) and in addition the Twins have two right handed hitting prospects (Martin and Lewis) who could be helping the club as outfielders in 2023. I just don't see the need for a veteran right handed hitting outfielder at this point. All that said, if there is a comparable right hitting corner outfielder to swap for Kepler, it would balance things nicely. Off the top of my head, I don't know of anyone.

My memory was that Garlick was injured for the key early September games in 2022. I was wrong. He was available, but flat out ineffective. For September he put up a .270 OPS with no homers and was shut down on the 15th. As far as I'm concerned, the Twins can roll with too many left handed bats in the corner outfield and if we get to September 2023, the likes of Royce Lewis or Austin Martin can get the RH plate appearances that Garlick had in 2022. Maybe, just maybe, a first round draft choice (Gordon, Larnach, or Kirilloff) will be such a presence that another right handed bat is really not needed. BTW, having Ryan Jeffers hit against left handed pitching is probably a good idea. (.909 OPS in 2022).

Wow, you can see into the future! The Twins are going to experience another year of outfield injuries and Garlick again will be asked to help vs. RH pitching. Seriously, it looks like you have advanced the numbers by a year, usually we go the other way. Playing Garlick in meaningful games against right handed pitching is much like starting Celestino in center field for those games and having the likes of Tim Beckham, Caleb Hamilton and Mark Contreras on the active roster. There are two chances--small chance and no chance--to compete. Getting Correa back and adding Kyle Farmer mitigates the need for a "lefty killer". I don't think Garlick is needed in such a limited role.

Against left handers, Miranda should be 1B/DH with Farmer at third. Farmer had better platoon splits against lefties than any Twin.

I don't think there is any doubt that Correa is the Twins' shortstop until he can't play there anymore. He's never had great speed, but makes up for it with other things--good positioning, good arm, good footwork and a decent break on the ball. I hope he lasts at short for the guaranteed duration of his contract. I think the next question will be what position Correa transfers to when he is no longer a shortstop. My guess is that he'll follow Ernie Banks and become a first baseman, particularly because he would be a big target there and in spite of a really strong arm.

I thought the team should have non-tendered him and essentially this is the result. If someone wants to give the Twins something for him, that is great. If not, thanks for your efforts Kyle. This makes it more certain that Celestino will be on the Opening Day roster unless they bring in someone new. I hope the Twins can find someone who has a better chance to hit than Celestino and perhaps someone who could serve as a pinch runner and actually take an extra base or swipe a bag. If Martin can hit like he did in the AFL, I think he is a better fit than Celestino.

What I've liked about Correa is his relative youth. 2023 will be his age 28 year. He should be in his prime for at least the next four years. Being obligated to pay him superstar money for only six seasons is a definite win for the Twins' FO. The risk is injury. Have the Twins just been unlucky? As a Twins fan for life, I hope so.

With the Correa signing now official, the Twins have a bunch of middle infield prospects and no obvious path for them to get playing time in the middle infield--Lee, Lewis, Martin and Julien. Martin and Lewis have spent time in the outfield and I believe Julien has moved around the diamond. Lee only played short in his brief minor league time IIRC, but has been thought of as a potential second or third baseman.

I think the last obvious service time manipulation by the Twins was Kirilloff, who gave them cover by having a lousy spring training in 2021. I do think service time figures in, but it isn't a be-all and end-all. By and large, teams don't want rookies wasting team-control service time on the bench. I can't blame them for that.

I’m really not convinced Celestino will ever hit enough to be a regular outfielder. His hitting metrics were no better than in 2021. Beyond that, he was a poor base runner and made several poor throwing decisions. IMHO, he has a long way to be capable in all facets of the game. I’m especially disappointed with his supposedly good speed At midseason, he had grounded into as many double plays as he had RBI and he had stolen zero bases. The numbers got a bit better in the second half, but he’s still very substandard.

I continue to have high hopes for Austin Martin. His success in the AFL brings to mind a couple other guys who flourished there—Eddie Rosario and Royce Lewis. Eddie made the big leagues the next year and has had a nice career while Lewis also hit the bigs but had his promising season ended early. I have envisioned Martin as a speedy right-handed option in the outfield, capable of filling center field if needed, with the ability to play infield as well.

What's left of da Bears is dreadful, especially now that Fields is out. A win probably means little to the Vikings, but means even less to Chicago.