SkyBlueWaters

My understanding is that the Dodgers signed him to that incentive-laden contract years ago because they were concerned he might be injury-prone. I hope he stays healthy, and pitches well. We sure need a solid front of the rotation.

LEN3 began his column this way: "Now that they have taken their relationship with super agent Scott Boras to another level, one thing is certain: The Twins are on a path to the World Series." I found that a bit optimistic. But hey, spring is coming. I suppose it's the time for optimism. P.s. In '19 I went to Fla to see a few games. The wife and I were walking the beach in Ft. Myers one pleasant night and stopped at an outdoor cabana where a woman was wailing to her friend, "I don't wanna go back! I don't wanna go!" Heard her tell the bartender she had a ticket to MSP. Even in March, we can deal with hard truths.

"Huge impact"? I hope you're right. We have a deeper rotation now, but we lack an ace. Aside from Maeda's pitching in '20, pre-TJ, and Berrios in '21, the front of our rotation hasn't been stellar recently, meaning two to three guys pitching well, keeping the team in games through at least 5-6 innings, limiting wear on the bullpen so relievers can be used where most effective. Mahle turns 29 in September. He's pitched all or part of six seasons, so it seems to me the track record is pretty well established. A career ERA of 4.35, career WHIP of 1.315. In seasons where he has lasted 50 or more IP, his best is managing an ERA of 3.75 ('21), and a solid WHIP of 1,218 ('22). But hey, maybe he's on the verge of putting it all together. Maybe Twins coaching and the trainer will maximize his talent. "Stud"? I'm not seeing it yet. But I'm ready to be convinced. I'd love to see a Twin among the league leaders in ERA, K's, WHIP, K/BB, ERA+, or even a staid old stat like "wins."

Some years back, I went systematically through year-by-year total payroll figures for all 30 franchises, over a two decade span, sorting them into top, middle and bottom thirds. I then looked at how many of those teams made the playoffs and how many won the world series. At that point, only the '03 Marlins were a bottom third team to win a world series. (The '97 Marlins kind of surprised me, I'd forgotten how they had a number of high-priced veterans.) I had a friend who was convinced Sabrmetrics was going to be the difference maker for some true-believer to ace out a bigger payroll team. He denigrated the Giants as old school. When they won, he discovered they had an analyst hidden away crunching numbers. He also felt Ned Yost was such a bad manager he cost his teams games every year. When Yost won a WS, he again found KC had a stat-analyst. I realized the cause was lost. Whoever won, he was going to find a Sabrmetrician in the catacombs. Sorry for the digression. I agree with you the Twins' recent moves have been good. They will once again be good Upper Midwestern fun. One of my yardsticks for becoming wildly enthusiastic is to compare the best pitching staffs. Especially starting rotations. Again, I'm not complaining about our hot stove season moves. The Twins got better. But when I look at the best pitching staffs, how do the Twins rank in spring training? I'm crossing my fingers. I really hope someone emerges as an ace. And if they signed Matt Moore and he pitched close to what he did in '22, I'd happily admit he earned the Pohlad dollars, and I was wrong to be skeptical.

It will be interesting now to see where Moore ends up. I will say last year’s relative success was intriguing. If we had “Yankee dollars” to spend, I could see the chance as worthwhile. Unfortunately, we have Twins dollars—or maybe Pohlad dollars. Which, however plentiful, don’t seem to fly around with the abandon of Yankee dollars.

Exactly. A decade ago this guy was very promising, but TBR knew what they were doing when they dealt him. The Giants gave up another good prospect for him in Matt Duffy (2nd in ROY voting), and Moore was terrible. One year he led the NL in losses and earned runs coughed up. He hemorrhaged baserunners like Bonnie & Clyde. In 174 IP, he gave up 267 hits and walks. Yeah, a WHIP of 1,532 over 31 starts. Nothing like putting your team behind the 8 ball repeatedly. It's a big gamble to throw big money at the guy given all the disappointments throughout his career. I know, last year was better, pitching relief in the weakened AL West. But with a track record as established as his, when did he last put together two good years back to back? Given the Twins' budget, giving this guy a big payday is a real risk.

Wrong. His ERA was 4.40 for Cincy, 4.41 for us, when he was healthy enough to start. his ERA+ was 100. An average pitcher. If nothing else, look at the three prospects the Twins gave up for him. Do you find them on any top prospect lists?

Are you imagining a team built to last through three rounds of playoffs (plus perhaps the wild card) that can't win during the regular season? As I pointed out earlier, Mahle's career WHIP is 1.315, his career ERA is 4.35. That's fine for a team that doesn't expect to get to the playoffs. So how are you stacking Mahle up against other number threes and finding him an advantage to the Twins? Again, I'm tired of seeing the Twins as not-quite-good-enough. Generally, I'd like to see the Twins rotation as deep and capable of playing well against the better teams in the league. I don't think we had that by the end of 2022. (Check out our won/loss record against the teams that made the playoffs last year. It was bad.) I'm still not optimistic, but I think we are better with Pablo Lopez in our rotation. Also, earlier you listed Lopez as one of the numerous number threes. But of course, before the Arraez trade, he wasn't one of our pitchers.

It depends on what level you want your rotation to compete at. If you’re content with a winning percentage below .500, then a number 3 starter whose career WHIP is over a buck thirty, whose career ERA is above 4.30, like Mahle, would be your cup of tea. On a playoff contender, I’d expect him to be a number 5 starter or long relief at best. Ober and Varland haven’t strung together a number of consistent, solid starts for me to see them as number 3 or better starters on a playoff-caliber team. Before the Lopez deal, we only had two. And frankly, Ryan is still a bit green, but I think he’s promising. The point is to last deep in the playoffs. The point is to end the string of playoff losses.

I understand. It’s the word full that I object to. We had only a pair of guys who are #3 or better. Barring a major comeback from Paddack or Maeda, we were very thin at #3 or better. The Twins’ greatest need was a quality starter. This trade improved our chances for having a competitive rotation.

Respectfully, I think you overrate the rotation before the deal was made. We don't know that Maeda or Paddack will come back from injury and pitch well enough to be close to front-end starters. I certainly don't put Mahle or Ober toward the front of our rotation. If the point is to last deep in the playoffs, I don't see the Twins currently as having pitching the matches up well enough with the ace or 2nd starter of most playoff teams. Put another way, look at the rotations for teams that made it to the LCS of either league last year. Do you see Sonny Gray or Joe Ryan (and I like them both, and root for them) as better than the top two pitchers for HOU, PHI, NYY or SDP? Maybe with a good year one of them could be a number 2 or 3 starter on a playoff caliber team. Before this deal, we had two guys who are solid number three playoff-caliber starters. And behind that a collection of 4th and 5th options. I don't know that Pablo Lopez will be a front-end starter for us, but at this point he's certainly a candidate, and we're now deeper in front-end options than we were. My hunch (and it's only that) is that there weren't many teams willing to deal away front-end talent. We got what was available. Good luck to Arraez! I'll root for him (until he plays the Twins). But he turned down the contract offer before, and preferred arbitration this winter; clearly seemed ready to move on when he could, and we parlayed his talent into the best starting pitching talent the FO could find. In nine months' time, toward the end of the season, we'll know if the gamble this deal represents is paying off in the short-term. Right now, I think it was worth the risk. p.s. MLB.com has put out its list of top 10 prospects for both LHP and RHP. We don't have guy on either list.

That was why I wrote "a package including." Yes, the devil-in-the-details would be what prospects had to be packaged with Arraez. Yet our veteran roster indicates the Twins are in win-now mode, as did this deal. And Arraez's ability to put the ball in play and get on base is no small asset either. As a fan, I like him, but my understanding is that he hasn't been interested in a long-term deal in Minnesota, so it's a matter of what talent we might get for him now.

Doesn’t address our primary need, the front of the rotation, but sure makes the infield look better. I wonder if a package including Arraez might get us an ace.

First, nice post. Thoughtful and well done. Second, this is speculative and probably lots will disagree, but there have been situations in my life where I had strengths and weaknesses and was forced to work on the weaknesses. It was difficult, but ultimately the work put in made me better overall, when I could return to what came easier for me. Is it possible that, because David Ortiz was made to try to hit to all fields, he was a better hitter when allowed to return to his strength?

Now, be careful dere, fella. I hear dat buy-a-vowel Hrbek is quite de sportsman, too. Sometimes dat Bud Grant comes by vid some venison, also, you betcha.