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ThejacKmp

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Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    If you're not going to pretend that you know more than the scouts and front office, you have no place on these message boards. I say good day to you sir.
  2. ThejacKmp
    Name one who was available. You keep saying they're there but don't provide a name. As stated, Carlos Gomez got a deal as a starter. He's not going to come to MN to be a 4th OF unless you give him a lot more money (like $8 million instead of $4 million) or multiple years. And even if you got him, not sure he hits much more than Grossman. This year he has a .624 OPS with a .632 OPS vs. lefties. Last year he hit .645 vs. lefties. Likely a better fielder than Grossman but Granite can do those numbers. My point is that shopping for 4th OF puts you in bargain bin territory. Good players get starting jobs or are under team control and are expensive and don't make sense for a Twins farm system relatively loaded with outfield talent.
  3. ThejacKmp
    If you knock out the first three weeks of the season, Robbie Grossman has a .785 OPS and is an above-average hitter. I'm not saying that's a fair way to look at him but I think we should wait a bit longer to say he's 2017 and not 2016.
  4. ThejacKmp
    They can. The Rays have a few down years from time to time but they don't ever rebuild or tear it down. The Cardinals aren't totally mid-market but they aren't the Yankees and they have been consistently competitive. I think that's a main issue: consistently competitive vs. all-in. The Cardinals showed that consistently competitive can yield some titles. The Rays showed that it can not. The Royals show that all-in can be great. The Padres, not so much.
  5. ThejacKmp
    Again who? I'd like them to find a guy who throws 110 and doesn't need any rest but if I don't give you an example, I might as well be wishing for a my little pony. The 4th OF market was predictable bare this offseason. Not a lot of vets looking for any job and those that were hit LH. Hard to blame the Twins for not finding something that didn't really exist. Unless you have an idea?
  6. ThejacKmp
    First of all, their window is just opening. Not time to worry about it closing. But even if it was closing: That's easier said than done. You have Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario who all are going to start. And coming up you have Kiriloff, Baddoo, Rooker, Davis, and Wade and maybe Lewis in the OF. So you’re going to have competition for 4th OF as soon as the second half of this season (Wade, Rooker). So you’re looking for someone who is an upgrade over Grossman and co. but who isn’t so good he’s going to block someone farther down the line. That’s a tough place to hit. Not to mention you’re giving up prospects to add to an area that looks to be a pretty considerable strength for the Twins going forward. Grossman isn’t amazing and LaMarre/Cave aren’t either but they’re likely a decent backup plan. You can’t anticipate all major injuries and the Twins are unlucky enough to have Mauer, Castro (Garver could have played RF) and Buxton all down at the same time. Mauer and Buck will be back soon, lightening the load for Grossman.
  7. ThejacKmp
    The Twins should drop Peit and bring up Cave. They should platoon Cave and Lamarre and hope that works until Buxton is ready to come back. A righty 4th OF should be easier to grab at the deadline when teams are selling and guys welcome a trade to a contender even if it is a bit role (my hope is the Twins use the Hughes savings to take on McCutchen’s salary and get the Giants under the luxury task in exchange for a C prospect). The issue with that is it leaves you a bit short in the IF since Adrianza becomes the only backup for 2B, 3B and SS. It makes it tougher to DH Sano since an injury at 2B, SS or 3B means you either move Rosario in to 2B, try a backup catcher at 3B for an inning or two, or lose the DH. But that seems like an unlikely thing and it’s a short term thing until Polanco comes back in 25 games. Wade needs to play every day and should be up in AAA any day now. Granite never hit in the majors (.611 OPS) and doesn’t have a minor league track record that says that’s a SSS aberration (.770 at AAA, .729 at AA). Easily one of the more overrated “prospects”. I’m continually surprised he’s listed as one of MLB’s top 30 prospects. The draft should knock him off that list but his ceiling is 4th OF.
  8. ThejacKmp
    Who did you want them to go get? Look at the guys who signed this offseason, there wasn't anybody. The best of the bunch was Carlos Gomez and he was able to get a starting job in Tampa so there's little chance he'd come to the Twins even if they gave him more than $4 million. The reality is that finding a 4th OF means looking at guys like Cave, Lamarre, Grossman etc. If guys are good enough to be guaranteed solid OFs, their teams don't let go of them or they take starting jobs. The Twins have done remarkably well with Grossman and LaMarre in a short sample.
  9. ThejacKmp
    If you do all of the players over for the whole draft, you get Gibson at 29th in WAR. That's not too shabby. If you redid the draft with hindsight, the National would have Harper and Trout. Wow.
  10. ThejacKmp
    Depends on the market. If you're in LA, NY, Bos etc., I think you have more latitude to bring in free agent pitching and reclamation projects. In a small market like the TC though, you need high-upside ace potential.
  11. ThejacKmp
    There's more than one way to skin a cat. The Astros pen wasn't remarkable last year. The Yankees have had insane pens and not made the World Series. The Cubs had Chapman and a lot of guys you didn't feel great about the year they won. The Twins have a pen that can play in the postseason right now. It lacks the elite shut-down arm but it has depth and quality. Just gotta get there.
  12. ThejacKmp
    Right now the Twins bench is Adrianza, Petit and Wilson. They can't go to a two man bench of Adrianza and Wilson. That's insane. Petit will likely go when Mauer gets back (LaMarre when Buxton, Adrianza when Polanco) but for now he's needed. Duffey should go down if the Twins want to get Buesnitz up
  13. ThejacKmp
    Why are the Twins and White Sox doing a DH tomorrow? They’re both off today and both were at home yesterday. Seems strange they didn’t schedule the game for tonight. Is this just the team thinking it’s fun to do a doubleheader?
  14. ThejacKmp
    Not Adrianza's fault he got thrown out on that one. That was Gene Glynn making a terrible call to send with one out in the eighth.
  15. ThejacKmp
    Adrianza's days seem numbered though. When Mauer, Buxton and Polanco are back, three guys have to go. LaMarre and Petit are two of them but Adrianza is the obvious choice for the third (likely when Polanco is activated).
  16. ThejacKmp
    Thorpedo is an important prospect for the Twins who flies under the radar a bit. He’s got top-of-the-rotation stuff with the K rates to back it up. He’s not that far away from the majors either. He’s given up a ton of HR this year, hopefully that’s small sample size and not a reflection of more advanced hitters exposing weaknesses. I know Petit is out of options and you might lose him but he’s barely playing. With Polanco back in less than a month and Sano healthy, I’m surprised the Twins haven’t dropped Petit for Granite/Cave/Wade. They’d make a nice platoon with LaMarre while Buxton is out. Gregorio is super replaceable. I guess he allows you to DH Sano and not have to lose the DH if an injury happens but I imagine Rosario could play 2B in a pinch if it really came down to that. Or Garver could play 3B for an inning or two. Seems like a waste of a roster space.
  17. ThejacKmp
    Months are a completely arbitrary way of delineating something. Players don't say "Hey new month! I'll do different things!" He had a terrible first three weeks of the season and has been decent since. He'll play less with Mauer coming back Thursday (knocks on wood) and hopefully won't be so overexposed. He has a track record that it isn't elite but isn't this bad.
  18. ThejacKmp
    That should even up in the long run though right? Especially since the Twins pen isn't fundamentally flawed in any way? The two of them beating each other up does help the Twins. You want them to split their remaining games against each other while the Twins go on a heater. Everyone should have my optimism. It's really great up until the moment it comes crashing down. And then it sucks.
  19. ThejacKmp
    I thought about Torii as I wrote this actually. Two points with him: 1) Torii was considered high-character later in his career but not as much early. Character seems to be something you develop as you become a veteran. :-P 2) It’s interesting that Torii was seen as high-character since he was pretty openly homophobic during his career. That doesn’t fit with a modern, liberal morality. Kind of draws me towards that concept that character is a reflection of an older, more conservative concept of morality. A big part of it also seems to be how well-spoke a guy is, something Torii Hunter always was. Joe Mauer, lily-white MN family boy, is rarely talked about as high-character. He’s not low-character but you don’t hear a lot about his awesome character. These tags get dropped by media and scout types who are used to talking to all kinds of players, many of whom may not be great communicators. Maybe it’s a short-hand way of saying, “This guy is well-spoken” and then we equate that with a good family etc. That also raises some of those race/national orientation issues. Sano may be very well-spoken in Spanish but not so much in English but we don’t even know. And maybe we have different standards for players who are ethnic minorities than those who are not (in ways that might benefit them or hurt them). I dunno, could just be a load of B.S.
  20. ThejacKmp
    Agreed they're not catching the Yankees. That's a great team. But they can certainly catch the Angels or Mariners. The Angels are top-heavy. An injury to Trout (which seems to happen each year) might sink them. Or Ohtani might hit a wall. And the Mariners lost Cano and have some big holes in the lineup. King Felix isn't King Felix and who knows if Paxton is an ace-light or a guy having a hot two months. Both of those teams are eminently catchable. Especially since they play each other (and the Astros) a ton while the Twins get to play the Tiggers, White Sox and Royals.
  21. ThejacKmp
    Also important to note that not talking just about your comments, more the overall tenor and level of pessimistic panic on the boards :-) Firmly disagree this team won't be in the wild card mix. They're nine to ten games out but the teams ahead for the 2nd WC are mostly flawed (Rays, Jays) with the possible exception of the Angels and Mariners. Neither of those teams is so good that a Twins team with a Woke Offense couldn't track them down. If we're down 9 at the break, I'll start thinking division-or-bust. But no way are we as out of it as everyone assumes. You think a pen is as important as the hitters? I'm surprised by that - I don't have any stats to back it up but an offense over 9 innings seems much more important than a pen over 3 innings. Could be wrong.
  22. ThejacKmp
    I understand if this is not the place for this discussion. We can certainly move it or ignore this.
  23. ThejacKmp
    I always feel a bit weird about the "character" concept. I get that it’s a thing. We’ve all worked jobs and played sports and have realized how important personality and how you handle yourself can be. Talent isn’t everything and emotional intelligence matters etc. That said, it always seems like character is applied to people who fit a general concept of what a player should be. Goes to church, nice family, leadership skills, quiet and modest etc. It implicitly indicates that other players lack character or are somehow deficient because they like to go out, are loud and brash etc. I guess I just think the correlation we draw between high-character and doing well is not as strong as we make it – perhaps because we like the narrative and perhaps because it’s subjective so we only apply it to people with talent (no one lauds Drew Butera’s character because he just isn’t that good). There’s another reason I always feel uncomfortable with that word. I hesitate to even make this point because it may be divisive but I’ve (unscientifically) noticed that when we apply character, we tend to do it with white players. I’m not calling anyone racist or anything, I think it’s normal. Our concept of Morality tends to be driven by cultural norms from movies and Americana – the aw shucks John Wayne/Audie Murphy-type who just gets ‘er done and is kind and polite. That cultural figure has almost always been white – just like Hispanic characters and black characters have been portrayed in other ways. When we bring a cultural concept like morality or good leadership into things, we’re going to bring in that understanding too. This maybe got a bit discombobulated but that tends to happen with this subject because it’s uncomfortable for us straight white dudes. I just always cringe when I hear people talking about character when describing a prospect because it just feels like implicit coding for something else and it feels uneven.
  24. ThejacKmp
    I love that we've moved from "The Twins should cut Rodney" to "Rodney needs to be in high-leverage situations" in a month. That's what's so great about baseball.
  25. ThejacKmp
    Interesting concept. If you were to pick which coach is least data-driven, who would it be? And who would be most? I may be wrong but the pen coach has always seemed like more of a rah-rah, build-a-team-out-here kind of guy. He’s certainly working with guys on mechanics but a lot of it has keeping guys on track to be ready and dealing with egos/confidence etc. I can't think that Molly is leaning on Eddie for who to send in or who to warmup or who has the best chance to get Lindor out. For most data-driven I have a hard time. I can see bench coach with the importance of shifting. I can see pitching coach with breaking down hitter performance. Batting too, though maybe less since hitting has a lot of rhythm and confidence to it rather than running the data.
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